Friday, October 03, 2008

Week 6 Picks

Another exciting weekend of college football awaits, we can only hope that it is half as exciting as last weekend. Yet again I fall back another game from Chief, what can you do, but keep making stupid picks? Gomer (40-21) Chief (42-19)


Illinois Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines
Gomer: Michigan got real lucky in what was one of many stunners last weekend. In the second half of the game versus Wisconsin, the Wolverines came out down 19-0 and were able to come back and win in the greatest comeback in Big House history, the second half is enough reason to give every remaining opponent on Michigan's schedule a shudder (yes even Ohio State). While RichRod would like to continue the momentum generated with the win over the Badgers, Juice Williams and the Illini are the antithesis of Wisconsin football and the Wolverine's will struggle to stop them, and Steven Threet will continue his mediocrity. UI: 34 - UM: 23

Chief: I don’t think the country has enough understanding how terrible the Michigan/Wisconsin game was. I did gain some respect for the Wolverine defensive line, but the secondary was helped immensely by an awful Badger QB. This game is very intriguing because Illinois is fighting to stay relevant while Michigan hopes to prove they’ve reloaded and not rebuilt. Illinois hung with PSU well, and UM can’t hold the ball. I expect the Illini to get an elusive road win in the Big House. UI: 20—UM: 10

Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes
Gomer: Knowing that my colleague is an alum of one of these two schools, I won't be too mean to the Seminoles. This used to be a game that had national title implications but until Bowden gets out of Tallahassee and Shannon's recruits mature, this game will not matter on a championship level. However this game is pivotal in the ACC race with both teams looking for their first conference victory. Miami's young talent led by Robert Marve will manage to score enough to keep down the typically inept FSU offense. FSU: 10 - UM: 13

Chief: Literally, a matchup for the ages. Remember the 90s when this was the annual game of the year? My how they’ve fallen, but both teams are looking to climb back into the spotlight. The Hurricanes lost on a last second pick in the endzone versus the Tarheels but looked good in the effort. FSU’s defense, in my opinion, is one of (if not the) best in the country. The Nole offense figured out last week vs. Colorado to pass to the guys in the red so they didn’t hand the game to the opposition. Look for the Seminole defense to smother the Cane offense and Christian Ponder to do just enough for a win in Miami (where wins for FSU are fleeting). FSU: 13—UM: 10

Auburn Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Gomer: In doing some reading for this match-up it's amazing to believe that Vandy has not started a season 5-0 since 1941, well Commodores, here's your chance. Vandy has come through in two very close games while the Tigers have lost one really close game giving up the big play at the end when they needed a defensive stand most. So far my colleague and I have tossed around the idea if it's SEC Defenses that are so amazing, or if the offenses are really that bad. Well in this games case, we're gonna see a good bit of both. For little good reason other than playing at home, Vanderbilt makes a statement beating the Tigers for the first time since 1955. AU: 9 - Vanderbilt: 13

Chief:
Gameday is in Vanderbilt. Let me say that again unless you think you misheard. Gameday is in Vanderbilt. The Dores are ranked for the first time in a long time and hope they continue their dominance of the SEC (again, never thought I’d say that). Auburn’s defense is very very good and their offense is…well the defense is very good (Taken from CFN). Vandy will have the energy to slow the Auburn ‘offense’, but the Tiger defense will end the Vandy dreams. AU: 10—Vandy: 3

Oregon Ducks vs. Southern Cal Trojans
Gomer: Typical Pac-10 game, Oregon has a decent offense (granted all their QB's are dead or dying), USC has an outstanding offense. Oregon has a terrible defense that can't stop the run or pass, USC doesn't know how to stop runs straight up the middle. Look for the Ducks to hang with the Trojans early but defensive pressure and the likes of Sanchez and McKnight will put the Ducks down with ease. If they don't, the Trojans can say goodbye to any chance at the BCS Championship or the Pac-10 crown. UO: 21 - USC: 38

Chief:
The Trojans come off an epic loss in Corvallis (becoming a biannual event). Not to mention that the Ducks defeated USC last year. Talk about payback on their minds. Pete Carroll’s squad looked totally vulnerable last week (if only we played them last week) but UO got blasted by a mediocre Boise team in Autzen. USC looked mortal, but this is a week for revenge. UO: 17—USC: 55

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Gomer: The Badgers currently are on a tear in night games winning 21 of their last 22, home and away including winning 11 straight nighttime victories. The last time the Bucks visited Camp Randall it was 2003 and a night game in early October and the Bucks were looking to repeat as National Champions but were met with a raucous crowd, pouring rain, driving wind, and a load of smashmouth football they could not match. Tomorrow night much of the previously mentioned will be present but most importantly what's missing is a veteran QB with a National Championship on his resume, what the Bucks do have instead is one of the best running backs in the country that should help keep the pressure off of Pryor for most of the game. Unlike SoCal the Badgers do not have 5-star athletes at every position, so I like this match-up better than the Trojans, but I do not like our line play, on either side of the ball. If the D-line is unable to generate pressure on inexperienced QB Allan Everidge, it could be a long day of Everidge to Beckum and PJ Hill running up the middle. OSU: 17 - UW: 14

Chief: The game of the week still resides in Madison. Refer to my comments above about the UM/UW game. The commentators need to stop calling the UM win a Badger 2nd half collapse. They weren’t anything special in the 1st half, coming away with FG’s after the myriad Wolverine turnovers. The Buckeyes looked good last week, but doing it on the road at Camp Randall will be tough. Pryor and Wells need to be sharp and they will, Everidge (Wisconsin’s QB) will be the offensive star (for the Buckeyes), and Pryor will continue to impress—if Steve Threet can break off a big run, Pryor will hit multiple. OSU: 27 - UW: 17

Stanford @ Notre Dame: Gomer: ND - Chief: ND
Texas @ Colorado: Gomer: UT - Chief: UT
Connecticut @ North Carolina: Gomer: UNC - Chief: UNC
Washington @ Arizona: Gomer: Arizona - Chief: Arizona

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Here's a coverage map for Saturday's NCAA FB games both at 3:30pm and 8:00pm. It's nice to see the majority (63%) of the country seeing the Buckeyes vs. Badgers, probably has something to do with USC losing to Oregon State and suddenly not as many people care about them and would rather see two 1-loss teams (OSU-Wisc) go at it in what should be a smash mouth affair.

Linkage:
http://www.big12sports.com/fls/10410/tv_radio/football/tv_clearances_fb.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=10410

Monday, September 29, 2008

Rankings

These rankings are comprised of the old BCS formula, with one minor tweak of my own, I add in Collegefootballnews.com rankings. Something to note about their rankings, unlike AP and Coaches, CFN looks at how the team is playing, not necessarily how they could end up.

Update: This week incorporates the first week of the Harris Interactive Poll

1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Penn State
6. Missouri
7. Georgia
8. Utah
9. Brigham Young
10. Boise State
11. South Florida
12. Texas Tech
13. USC
14. Virginia Tech
15. Ohio State
16. Vanderbilt
17. Oklahoma State
18. Wisconsin
19. Auburn
20. Kansas
21. Florida
22. Oregon
23. Connecticut
24. Michigan State
25. Kentucky

A few notes:
-The gap between #2 Oklahoma and #3 Texas is large (5.45-11.44)
-Alabama is #1 in every computer except for one that has been released thus far, and for good reason, they have dominated good and average opponent, except for that unexplainable struggle versus Tulane
-The computers hate Florida with an average ranking of 33.75, while the humans give the Gators a 10.75 average. Talk about overrated.

If the BCS selected today:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac-10)
Penn State vs. USC

Sugar Bowl (SEC)
LSU vs. Utah

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12)
Texas vs. USC

Orange Bowl (ACC)
Virginia Tech vs. South Florida

BCS Championship (#1 vs. #2)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Not bad match-ups all around, of course there is the dumb rule of a maximum of 2 teams from any conference, here is how it would be in a perfect world with a play-in game to help satisfy those who demand a "play-off"

#1 Alabama vs. #4 LSU... Can't happen because they'll play later in the regular season
#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas... Again can't happen, they play in two weeks, this is why projections don't make complete sense at this point of the year.

#5 Penn State vs. #6 Missouri... Good match-up, class of the Big Ten (right now) vs. probable Heisman Winner
#7 Georgia vs. #8 Utah... Bloodbath, so many people were excited to see Hawaii vs. Georgia, look how that turned out
#9 Brigham Young vs. #10 Boise State... BYU has to play Utah, so these will shift around quite a bit