Friday, October 10, 2008

Week 7

What a thriller! The Buckeyes survived a scary road trip to Camp Randall and rode on the arms and legs of freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. I've started just going with my gut instinct for most games rather than use logic, because hey, it doesn't really matter. Records so far: Gomer (48-22) Chief (50-20)

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Gomer: Bradford vs. McCoy in the Red River Shootout. This game will have a huge impact on the national title picture and the Heisman race. If the Horns are able to pull off the win they will have a lot of momentum heading into the toughest stretch of the schedule (OU, Mizzou, OSU, TT). I have heard a lot of knocks on UT's schedule thus far but looking at who the two teams have played the only major difference is the win over TCU for the sooners. The biggest reason OU should win is their balance on offense, between Bradford and Murray, OU is diverse where they need it. If McCoy gets hot this could get really interesting and vault him to the top of the Heisman list. UT: 24 - OU: 31

Chief: With all the great games this week, the Red River Shootout tops most peoples’ lists. The Big 12 this year has been a bastion of great QB play and this game has 2 of the best in McCoy and Bradford. Both of these QBs should be invited to the Heisman ceremony at year’s end. I like OU in this matchup as the Horns have played no one this year. OU’s schedule is not anything special, but TCU provided a little tune up. While the Horned Frogs will never be mistaken for the Horns, Bradford and Murray will be enough to stop McCoy and….McCoy. Texas doesn’t have the variety of weapons OU has and it will show in Dallas. UT: 20—OU: 38

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Missouri Tigers
Gomer: Mike Gundy and the Pokes look to shock the country in probably the most underrated match-up of this weekend. These are two of the very best offenses in the country and two average-ish defenses, so in a sense this should look like a Pac-10 game. The best hope for the Cowpokes is to hope for a Mizzou lookahead to next week's game with the Horns. Both teams will put up ridiculous numbers, Chase Daniel will look good and probably solidify his chances at winning the Heisman (I might kill something or someone if he wins). I just have some funny feeling about the Pokes being the underdog and being nameless to the majority of the nation. OSU: 45 - Mizzou: 42

Chief: This Big 12 matchup should be one of the most exciting games of the year. Maybe the reason for the political correct change of the Red River Shootout is because the shootout of the week is in Columbia. The Pokes and Tigers has 2 of the most dynamic offenses in the country with Heisman frontrunner Chase Daniel and relative unknown Zac Robinson (also in the top 5 in passer rating), not to mention the stellar highlight reels Jeremy Maclin and Dez Bryant. Remember the Bengals/Browns game from a few years ago where TDs were scored every minute? Don’t blink in this one or you may miss 3 TDs. I like Mizzou for now in a close win because the Cowboys are still fairly unknown. Chase Daniel leads a game winning drive to keep the dream alive. “Get your popcorn ready!” OSU: 48—Mizzou: 52

LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Gomer: Anything I've read speaks to the strength from the Tiger lines on both sides of the ball. While LSU should be able to dominate where it counts the real question is, which Tim Tebow will show up? So far this season we have not seen the Heisman Trophy winner of last year, it's not like he's been bad, but he hasn't been Heisman caliber. This game should be a classic and has huge national title implications because whoever wins will be in the drivers seat to make it to the BCS championship (A 1-loss SEC champion gets in over any other 1-loss team). Another tidbit; under Meyer and Tebow's leadership the Gators have never made a 4th quarter comeback. LSU: 27 - UF: 21

Chief: Does one of these teams have to win??? I would be just fine seeing both lose. This game has huge national title implications as a win for UF puts them back in the hunt and a loss ends all hope. LSU could always use another big road win to solidify their status as Auburn is petering out. Darnell Scott has been getting the hype, but 1 good half by LSU QB Jarrett Lee isn’t enough to make me a believer. For the Gators, look for Tebow to Harvin, Tebow to Harvin, Tebow to Harvin as usual. I’m pulling the trigger here. The Swamp, at night, is a brutal place to play. The Gators will be pumped and Tebow will run the show himself--just enough for an enormous win for Florida. LSU: 17—UF: 20

Penn State Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Gomer: This game could easily be a trap game for the Lions. Wisconsin has fallen from National Title hopes to Rose Bowl hopes to just salvaging the season. Losing to lowly Michigan and a superior Buckeye squad in the final minutes can really do that to you. Is it possible we're looking at the "new MSU"? I don't think Wisconsin will become the team of yearly collapses but they are definitely backed into a corner at 0-2 in conference play staring 0-3 in the face. On the other hand the Lions have roared through their first 6 games but still can't quite crack the top 5 nationally. A win here for JoePa's possibly last squad, will solidify the collision course with 1-loss Ohio State in two weeks. Penn State's D-line will put lots of pressure on Evridge and the Badger running game and this game will not be as close as expected. PSU: 34 - UW: 20

Chief: Yikes…Can I pull it twice? Here’s a game of incredible proportions for these teams for 2 very different reasons. Penn State needs to keep winning to keep the national love affair with Joe Pa alive. Also, they enter a murderer’s row with games at Wisconsin, home vs. Michigan (don’t laugh, PSU hasn’t beaten Michigan since 96) and at Columbus. Wisconsin has become the cornered badger who is by nature going to be extremely dangerous. If Wisconsin learns to run the ball consistently and stops putting the game into Alan Evridge’s hands they have a chance. Bielema needs to circle the wagons and impart the urgency of this game. As the last big game on the schedule, the Badgers need this...but PSU is good when they’re on. I think they do just enough to crush the Badgers hopes for another year. This game will be much closer than the expert’s think, but the Lions put the finishing blow on the Badgers. Deciding factor? PSU’s band will be in Camp Randall. Wisconsin is questionable…God Speed Blue Band! PSU: 24—UW: 23 (Editor's note: PSU's band will not be allowed in the game as of 3:30pm Friday)
(Editor's note: Wisconsin's band WILL BE at the game as of 3:40pm Friday, which means PSU's pep band should be allowed in the game as well)

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Gomer: It's almost a pity that this is Joe Tiller's final hurrah and his team is so terrible. The Boilers benched Senior QB Curtis Painter in last weeks joke against Penn State. The Buckeyes continue to struggle to put meaningful pressure on opposing QB's and will continue to struggle this week, not necessarily because of lack of effort but Painter is really good at getting rid of the ball quickly (for better or for worse). The Buckeyes have given up the most sacks in the Big Ten, even with Pryor, but with Beanie getting limited work and Boom out, this will be closer than expected (Bucks are favored by 19) because of both offensive struggles and JT's unwillingness to send out Tiller with a black eye. PU: 17 - OSU: 31

Chief: After all those great game that should run down to wire, it’s nice to have an easy one. The Bucks come off an epic win in Madison while Purdue continues to be an exercise in futility in West Lafayette. OSU is hitting their stride with the steady Beanie Wells grinding out chunks of yards and the flashy playmaker Terrelle Pryor. At season’s beginning, I had zero expectations of the boy from Jeanette. While the masses were calling for Mr. Pryor on Day 1, I expected no such changing of the guard. Even I have come to the side of the boy wonder. This guy is simply amazing, and with Beanie as another threat (not to mention some receivers who hopefully are prepared to explode), expect OSU to trample the hapless Boiler rush defense (last in the Big 10). It’s gonna be a short game in which the Bucks run, run, run while Painter enjoys the fine turf of Ohio Stadium. Bucks roll. PU: 7—OSU: 38

***On a personal note, if you happen to attend the Clash in Columbus, hang around for halftime as I was privileged enough to assist in the designing of the band’s halftime show—TV Land. See Stewie, Homer, crashing boats, and a salute to the bar where everyone knows your name, and more.***

South Carolina vs. Kentucky - Gomer: UK, Chief: USC
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina - Gomer: UNC, Chief: UNC
Michigan State vs. Northwestern - Gomer: MSU, Chief: MSU

Monday, October 06, 2008

Rankings

These rankings are comprised of the old BCS formula, with one minor tweak of my own, I add in Collegefootballnews.com rankings. Something to note about their rankings, unlike AP and Coaches, CFN looks at how the team is playing, not necessarily how they could end up.

Update: This week incorporates the first week of the Anderson & Hester Computer Poll

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Missouri
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. LSU
7. Georgia
8. Southern Cal
9. Utah
10. Vanderbilt
11. Texas Tech
12. Ohio State
13. Boise State
14. Brigham Young
15. Florida
16. Virginia Tech
17. Oklahoma State
18. Michigan State
19. North Carolina
20. Kansas
21. Georgia Tech
22. California
23. Wake Forest
24. South Florida
25. Northwestern

A few notes:
-The gap between #4 Texas and #5 Penn State is large (10.47-)
-This week's big time overrated teams are #6 LSU (3 by the humans, 12.6 by the computers), #11 Texas Tech (8.75 by the humans, 19.4 by the computers), #14 BYU (9.5 by the humans, 20.2 by the computers), #15 Florida (10.25 by the humans, 23.8 by the computers), #20 Kansas (16.5 by the humans, 32.8 by the computers)
-The most underrated teams is #21 Georgia Tech (28.75 by the humans, 19 by the computers)
-The Buckeyes are ranked either 11 or 12 by the humans and as high as 7 and as low as 24 by the computers


If the BCS selected today:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac-10)
Penn State vs. USC

Sugar Bowl (SEC)
LSU vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12)
Missouri vs. Utah

Orange Bowl (ACC)
Virginia Tech vs. South Florida

BCS Championship (#1 vs. #2)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Not bad match-ups all around, of course there is the dumb rule of a maximum of 2 teams from any conference, here is how it would be in a perfect world with a play-in game to help satisfy those who demand a "play-off"

#1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Texas... Hey lucky for us, we get to see that match-up this weekend!
#2 Alabama vs. #3 Missouri... Very intriguing matchup, high-power offenses, blood-thirsty defense (from Bama), I'd pay to watch.

#5 Penn State vs. #6 LSU... Good match-up, class of the Big Ten vs. the mad hatter

#7 Georgia vs. #8 USC... What everyone thought would be the national title game when the season began, good matchup

#9 Utah vs. #10 Vanderbilt... Very interesting, I'd watch, but not many other than the NCAA FB diehards would.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Full Day of Football...

I finally was able to spend a complete day in front of the TV watching parts of many of the great games that went on this Saturday. From yesterdays docket I watched parts of: Penn State vs. Purdue, Michigan State vs. Iowa, Indiana vs. Minnesota, West Virginia vs. Rutgers, Notre Dame Stanford, Alabama vs. Kentucky, Illinois vs. Michigan, Florida State vs. Miami, Vanderbilt vs. Auburn, Texas vs. Colorado, Oklahoma vs. Baylor, North Carolina vs. Connecticut, Arizona vs. Washington, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, and Missouri vs. Nebraska... shew, it was a fun and full day for sure.

The Buckeyes looked good when they needed to. Wisconsin is a much better team than their record shows and they are staring 0-3 in the Big Ten in the face with undefeated Penn State coming to town next Saturday. The tandem of Pryor and Wells in the backfield, when used effectively, makes the Buckeye offense almost unstoppable. There are still far too many issues with the wide receivers and the defense. On the topic of defense, there were moments of brilliance, but more moments of "oh no" than anything else last night. While making stops when it really counts is what really matters, it is unnerving that the likes of Hill, Beckum, Evridge, and Clay were able to move almost at will in, out, and around the OSU D. It all comes down to the lack of pressure generated by the d-line that continues to be an issue this year.