Week 5 picks--Conference time

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Gomer: I'm mentally prepared for a dud of a rivalry game in this year's version of the Red River Rivalry. I desperately wish I had the balls to pick against Texas last week, I had a hunch, but was fearful of embarrassment. I was also convinced that OU would have no problem covering the -14.5 spread against the lowly Bearcats. What I'm trying to say is, your guess is as good as mine. I'm calling for the motivated upset... UT: 27--OU: 25

Chief: I'm not seeing anything to get excited about with this installment of the Red River Shootout. Even before Texas was embarrassed last week at home by UCLA, I was looking at OU coming out on top of this one. Granted, OU struggled on the road against UC (bad), but I expect Demarco Murray to run all over this Longhorn team. Not expecting a nailbiter here but crazier things have happened. UT: 10--OU: 38

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans

Gomer: Talk about a tossup. Both teams are very evenly matched and similarly constructed as they go head-to-head in Big Ten battle this Saturday. This might be a very short game as the run games should prove to be prevalent in this match-up. I think the motivation of Mark Dantonio's heart-attack and absence will give Sparty the extra edge. UW: 26--MSU: 34

Chief: Big Ten play starts after some pretty easy tune-ups for both of these squads. Wisconsin has underperformed this year by most views but are 4-0 nonetheless. On the other hand, the Spartans have been a bright spot. The heartstopping (literally) OT win over the Irish was a big statement, but I'm not impressed with their offense under Kirk Cousins. Wisconsin got the offense going in a big way last week (granted against a very terrible opponent). I expect a big day on the ground for John Clay. MSU keeps it close but not enough. UW: 27--MSU: 17

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon Ducks

Gomer: The home crowd in Autzen might be the difference for this massively important game. Would a win by either of these teams be enough to help jump Boise State, or even our beloved Buckeyes? Possibly, but the computers will have more of a say on that topic later this season. I've thought for years that Oregon's offense was a disaster waiting to happen, and there always seems to be one game a year when it just sputters and putts along, not able to come through when needed. Stanford's defense looked solid, but against Notre Dame. Oregon will be stopped eventually, but not Saturday night. Stanford: 25--Oregon: 38

Chief: Clearly, this is the standout game of the weekend. I tabbed the Cardinal (tentatively) to take the Pac 10 this year and they have yet to disappoint. Oregon has exploded offensively this year even with the loss of Jeremiah Masoli. Being in Eugene and Autzen Stadium is a HUGE advantage to the Ducks, but I'm sticking with my preseason pick. Luck has been fantastic and Coach Harbaugh has his players believing big things. The Stanford theme this year is "Win with class and cruelty". I love it. Stanford: 34--Oregon: 30

Florida Gators @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Gomer: Finally the Gators will be exposed by a good team. Alabama and Ohio State are the cream of the crop in NCAA Football this year, and the Tide shouldn't have a problem disposing of the fumble-happy, Tebow-less, Florida Gators. I should be pulling for the Gators for the sheer fact it gives the Buckeyes the #1 spot, but seriously, screw Florida. UF: 13--Bama: 30

Chief: While these two programs have had 2 epic meetings over the last two seasons, this is the first regular season meeting in awhile. The Tide rolls in (get it!) after a scare on the road in Arkansas, but I think they'll have their heads on straight this time (or Saban will murder a kitty). The UF offense got moving last week (against Kentucky) with their new wildcat QB Burton. While he broke Tebow's record of 6 TDs in a game, he is no Tebow. McElroy, Ingram, and Richardson will do enough against the Gator D to outscore a shutdown Gator offense. Bama: 17--UF: 9

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Gomer: Penn State's lack of an offense will be exposed again. I remember a couple years back when the Nits were upset by the Hawks, but the Lions just aren't that good this year. Iowa has looked somewhat shaky at times, but they are more balanced team with experience at QB and on defense. PSU: 16--Iowa: 27

Chief: Didn't know where to put this one, but hey, it's a Big Ten opener, so let's talk. Most of you know my opinion of PSU this year (citgo--bad for those not up on Common Man and the Torg) so this one is easy for me. The Hawkeyes played angry last week shutting out the Cardinals. Expect more of the same. Penn State doesn't have the horses on either side to pull off the upset in Kinnick. Sorry JoePa. PSU: 13--Iowa: 31

The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Gomer: The Illini are trash. While they did have a bye week to prepare for the Buckeyes, there really is zero realistic chance for the Buckeyes to lose this one... didn't we say that last year about Purdue? Anyway, the Buckeyes begin their "Farewell Road Tour" of Big Ten coaches on their way out. Coming up later in October, Tim Brewster. OSU: 54--Illinois: 14

Chief: Bucks enter Big Ten play on the road for their first test away from the Shoe all year. I don't expect anything special from an inept Illini team, but Zook has pulled off crazier upsets in the past. The defense took the first half off last week and they know they need to perform better this week. Not really seeing another 73 spot from TP, but the offense will score early and often. Keep it rolling. OSU: 41--Ill: 9

Other Games to Pick

Miami (FL) @ Clemson: Gomer: UM Chief: UM

NW @ Minn: Gomer: NW Chief: NW

Ohio @ EMU: Gomer: OU Chief: OU

UM @ Ind: Gomer: UM Chief: UM

VT @ NCState: Gomer: NCSU Chief: VT (This one is tough)

Notre Dame @ BC: Gomer: ND Chief: ND

5 Things We've Learned--Week 4

1) The Big East is absolutely horrible and doesn't deserve a BCS bid

So much of the media focus is on the ACC and their struggles, but the real problem of the AQ (auto-qualifying conferences) is the Big East. Comparatively, the ACC is a powerhouse. In the ACC, FSU seems to have rebounded nicely from the shellacking received from OU in Norman, VT is bouncing back from the JMU fiasco, NC State is a surprising 4-0, UNC would be good if their whole team was on the field rather than in prison, Miami came out and wiped Pitt out on the road after losing to OSU, the stories go on and on.

Now, the Big East on the other hand is a total mess. UConn was destroyed in the Big House, WVU struggled to beat Marshall in OT, and Cincy fought OU but lost just the same (and they lost to Fresno as well). The marquee conference win up to this point is the stunner of WVU over Maryland.

Here are the numbers and they speak for themselves (and will get the non-AQ conferences in an absolute uproar).
Big East vs. teams from automatic qualifying conferences: 1-10
Big East vs. FBS (Div 1-A) teams: 6-13
And the one bright spot:
Big East vs. FCS (Div 1-AA) teams: 9-0 (Yay! They might win the lower division!)
It's unbelieveable how bad they are and no one says anything.

To get the blood boiling more, think about this, one of these teams (Syracuse, WVU, Rutgers, USF, UConn, Louisville, Pitt, or Cincy) will be in a BCS bowl while at least one (usually 2) from each group of 3 will be left out: OSU, Wisc, Iowa; Stanford, Oregon, Arizona; OU, Texas, Nebraska; Florida, Alabama, Auburn. A playoff isn't needed to 'fix' the BCS, but perhaps it's time to trim the fluff.

2) Alabama and OSU are really good

As a student at THE Ohio State University, I'm a little biased but you can see from my grades of OSU that I'm very critical. OSU absolutely demolished every team this year (Miami was close for about a half--and yes I realize the other opponents were terrible) and their only weaknesses readily apparent are special teams and a consistant running game (but our QB scramble game makes it tough for any defense).

Alabama has cruised until the scare this week against Arkansas but was there really any doubt? As the scores flashed on the video board in Columbus and a cheer went up, I was very stoic, urging caution. I fully expected a team with Bama's weapons would come back. Arkansas is a very good team, but they just don't match up enough on defense to stop the Tide. As the game progressed, my caution appeared warranted (don't get me wrong, I'd like them to lose...but I really don't want Boise to get a shot because it's not right). I expect the problems of the Tide were fixed at halftime with Nick Saban threatening to kill puppies if his defense didn't wake up and hit someone. It obviously worked and now they sit undefeated with another big one this week.

3) The difference between the mid-majors and the BCS conferences (in general) is depth

My crazy, off-the-wall upset pick last week had Bernard Pierce and the Temple Owls defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. As the first half progressed, I was feeling pretty darn good about it as the scores kept flashing up in Ohio Stadium with Temple TDs vs. PSU FGs. After halftime, I noticed the Temple points completely dried up which left me wondering how a promising pick went awry.

While watching College Gameday Final (and their absolutely horrid Few Good Men parody), I discovered the flaw in my pick: it hinged on Pierce playing the whole game. It appeared Al Golden's Owl defense stifled the Lions and continually held them to FGs while Pierce run wild, but the injury bug bit around halftime and the dreams of upset died there. Without Pierce, Temple couldn't move the ball and were forced into a subpar passing game which flip field and led to turnovers.

In most BCS conferences, when 'the guy' goes down, there's someone ready in the wings to take the reins and give it a shot, but at Temple (and most other little schools) there's just a huge drop between the starters and the backups. Don't get me wrong, if OSU lost Pryor, we'd pretty much be screwed, but if Herron or Saine twisted an ankle, there are always Hall and Berry capable of moving the ball. Look at Bama. They lost a Heisman winning RB to injury and Trent Richardson smoked the competition in his absence. One guy makes a HUGE difference in the upset bids and midmajor conference races.

4) Just playing a BCS conference opponent doesn't make the game tougher

Many people jumped all over the Boise/Oregon State game as the big hurdle for Boise. Gameday was there and praise was heaped on the Beavers as a worthy opponent. If Boise could clear this evil BCS foe, they'd be ready. Here's a secret, Oregon State is really overrated. The Rodgers brothers are nice, but the quarterback is trash and the defense is a sieve. Boise's win over VT was a quality win and it will be shown as the season progresses and VT remembers they don't suck, but the Oregon State win will mean less and less as time goes on. The Pac 10 is full of midlevel talent teams and a few who have looked excellent so far (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona to a lesser extent). I wouldn't be surprised is Oregon State finishes in the lower half of the conference.

Another example is jumping on OSU for playing Ohio and EMU. Editor's note: These teams don't just suck, they're black holes of suck. I realize this. What everyone is forgetting is that every team has these garbage opponents. A lot of praise was heaped on Bama and Mark Ingram for destroying a BCS opponent in week 3. It was Duke. The Blue Devils would struggle with these crap MAC teams. Look at the team, not the conference. Realize that there are quality non-AQ teams (Boise, TCU, Utah, AF, Nevada) and suck BCS teams (Purdue, Minn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Duke, Wake, Kansas, Baylor, Washington State, UCLA--oops sorry Texas, the whole Big East) .

5) Oklahoma is the most confusing team ever

Look at the results:
Week 1: Squeak by Utah State (bad)
Week 2: Slaughter FSU
Week 3: Defeat AF by a score and get destroyed on the ground
Week 4: Survive a bad Cincinnati team on the road

Which team will we see this week? The destruction of my Noles is a quality win and beating AF no matter the score is a good thing, but Cincinnati and Utah State should have been demolished by this same team. Consistency is usually needed to win the title and Oklahoma is certainly not showing it now. Granted, it matters not how the games are won, but I would certainly not be stunned if OU drops a game that it shouldn't later this year. I expect them to blow out the Longhorns in Dallas, but watch for a let down game shortly thereafter. Remember Arizona's handling of Iowa to be follwed by a last sec TD to beat Cal (bad) 10-9?

Bonus---aka I forgot this last week
Big Ten (and in fact most of NCAA) has awful special teams

Ohio State, the marquee, thus far has had 1 punt returned, 2 kicks returned (1 called back), a blocked FG returned for TD, and a blocked punt along with mediocre to bad return/coverage teams. Wisconsin had 2.9999 kicks returned for TDs against them against ASU which would have cost them the game had the returner gotten 1 more yard before halftime. Iowa lost to Arizona following myriad special teams blunders including a blocked punt. Michigan survived the UMass scare following a blocked punt. Leaving the conference, Cincy might have pulled a monster upset had they not fumbled a punt inside the 20. This is a serious issue on which many coaches need to focus more effort. Very surprising that Tressel's mantra of field position and special teams appears to be falling on deaf ears.

Grading the Bucks Week 4--EMU

Well, that was interesting. 73 eh? Something I haven't seen in a Tressel offense in...well...ever. Defense was a disappointment, but the special teams didn't suck this week so that's a plus.

Offense: A
I really don't want to give a straight A, but 73 points...I don't think I have a choice. I will definitely not go A+ because the offensive line cannot run block to save their life. Against a bad high school team, we struggled to establish the run (with the running backs) which is a MAJOR concern. Terrelle Pryor was fantastic but he should have been. The scramble by Pryor on the 3rd play was just embarassing. I really thought he should have stopped at the 2, struck a Heisman pose, and moonwalked into the endzone...it was just too easy. TP has looked very good throwing and scrambling (and receiving), but the running game is still a concern. Saine and Herron really need to watch out for Hall and Berry. They've looked more impressive. Don't get too excited Bucks...EMU is awful.

Defense: C
Ok, we won by 53, but giving up 20 to the worst team in football is embarassing. The run defense was fine, but the secondary looked worrisome. In their defense, injuries have eaten the secondary, but it was Eastern Michigan. Chekwa was on the sideline with a slight tweak, but it was Eastern Michigan. Way too many passes down the middle of the field to wide open TEs. The pass rush was pedestrian and a 5-step drop seam route was carving us up. The good news is tweets from players after the game show that the defense was very upset at themselves for the way they performed (even with a 53 point win). They were not the Silver Bullets this week.

Special Teams: B
Here's a positive point: the special teams didn't fail all over teh field this week. In fact, they blocked a PAT! Not too much to say about the punting unit...since we only punted once (maybe twice but I was distracted at that point of the game), but there was one tackle made by the punter. That's not good!! The punter should NEVER have to make a tackle. Still not perfect but we're getting there. The coverage on kicks was very good--a great sign since our kicker was getting tired kicking off so much. Other than the weak punt coverage, no real special teams issues (which we shouldn't have against EMU).

Coaching: C
Not too much coaching to be done here. I have a few knocks this week. First, Pryor was in the game WAY TOO LONG. When the game is clearly in hand, there's just no room to risk your star player. One bad hit and we set our sights much lower than an undefeated season. Second, while I love trick plays, I felt the halfback pass to Pryor when up 25 against a bad team was a bit in bad taste. Putting new plays on film is one thing, but in that situation, I don't think it was warranted. The coaches showed they have no faith in the runningbacks which is very scary. This was a perfect game to try to work out the kinks in the running game. The defensive schemes were boring and they didn't adjust to covering the tightend.