Just wanted to give a heads up to watch this game tonight. Starksville will be rocking the cowbells. I think the Bulldogs were looking ahead in the collapse in Auburn (yeah--I know they were playing the defending National Champs but they were so pathetic in week 1 vs. Utah State, it's easy to look for the huge home game on Thurs.). LSU is the better team but Mississippi State will throw EVERYTHING at the Bayou Bengals but I think LSU will come out on top...barely. Look for a late field goal to be the difference in a game that is WAY closer than the experts think.
LSU: 31--MSU: 30
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Week 3 Picks--Tats vs. Bounties, Prostitutes, Jet Skis, etc.
Oklahoma @ Florida State
Auer: Lacking a signature win like this would be, the FSU Seminoles will be highly motivated to pull out a W against Bob Stoops' boys. The problem lies in experience. Last year in Norman, FSU was embarrassed and it was clear who the most talented team on the field was that night. As exciting as the atmosphere will be in Tallahassee on Saturday night, the Noles just don't have the horses to hang with the extremely talented and experienced Sooners. OU: 38--FSU: 30
Draper: Head or heart? Gotta be a homer. Perhaps Doak Campbell Stadium can get the Noles' swagger back. The stadium isn't the most intimidating in the country, but the crowd will be rabid for the night game against a number 1 team. OU had 2 weeks to prepare, but anyone following college football knows that the Sooners are COMPLETELY different away from Norman. The Noles will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and flying around the field. Big Game Choke Artist Bob will make a key coaching error to bring the win back to Tallahassee. Jimbo gets the first big win to win back the fans and bring the swagger of the 90s back. GO NOLES! OU: 24--FSU: 27
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Auer: If the Fighting Irish lose another close one, it'll be hard to dispute the existence of a curse on Brian Kelly. Last year's game was an absolute classic with one of the greatest finishes I've ever witnessed. As was seen last week, Notre Dame's defense is absolute trash and won't be able to stop MSU, yet again. Mark Dantonio should continue to prove he's the most underrated coach in the Big Ten. MSU: 23--ND: 9
Draper: Alright Notre Dame. I picked the upset by USF in week one but thought you could beat a hapless Michigan team and you crushed me by forgetting your defense in South Bend. This is your last chance. I think Rees will play a great offensive game just like the last 2 weeks but avoid the turnovers for once. MSU is sneaking around the B1G chicken coop with no talk, but I think they'll come into Notre Dame expecting a win. The Irish will play as if a cornered badger and will finally get their first win...even though they'll still give up a ton. The Spartans lost too many starters on defense to stop Rees. This is going out on a limb, but this is your last chance Brian Kelly. MSU: 31--ND: 34
Ohio State @ Miami
Auer: If you watched last week's game against the Rockets, there are many reasons to worry about the Buckeyes. If you watched Miami play the Maryland Terrapins on Labor Day, you're worrying should probably subside. The Buckeyes and Hurricanes are both doing a bit of soul searching and it's hard to be convinced that the Bucks could lose this one. I'm expecting a further reliance on the running game and Joe Bauserman to take advantage of the suspect Miami secondary. OSU: 35--UM: 20
Draper: In the game for the ESPiN ages, the Buckeyes invade South Beach. Except the over-under of references to some sort of improprieties to be set at 1038234028 (I'd take the over). Jacory Harris makes his inspired return to the Canes much to the exultation of the Buckeyes. More importantly for the Buckeyes, Jordan Hall, Corey Brown, and Travis Howard are back in the line up. Hall will improve the running game immensely but the biggest impact will come in the secondary. UM was pretty pathetic against Maryland as was OSU against Toledo. That being said, I think the Buckeyes are in prime position to take this game comfortably. Miami will attempt to run a pro offense which the Bullets are known for shutting down. They'll key off of Toledo's screens late, but it will be too late. I expect a huge improvement from a look ahead last week (and the first made Drew Basil FG!). GO BUCKS! OSU: 38--UM: 20
Upset Special:
Auer: Illinois over Arizona State, Toledo over Boise State
Draper: Tennessee over Florida, Washington over Nebraska--I wanted Toledo over Boise but don't think they have enough left in the tank
Auer: Lacking a signature win like this would be, the FSU Seminoles will be highly motivated to pull out a W against Bob Stoops' boys. The problem lies in experience. Last year in Norman, FSU was embarrassed and it was clear who the most talented team on the field was that night. As exciting as the atmosphere will be in Tallahassee on Saturday night, the Noles just don't have the horses to hang with the extremely talented and experienced Sooners. OU: 38--FSU: 30
Draper: Head or heart? Gotta be a homer. Perhaps Doak Campbell Stadium can get the Noles' swagger back. The stadium isn't the most intimidating in the country, but the crowd will be rabid for the night game against a number 1 team. OU had 2 weeks to prepare, but anyone following college football knows that the Sooners are COMPLETELY different away from Norman. The Noles will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and flying around the field. Big Game Choke Artist Bob will make a key coaching error to bring the win back to Tallahassee. Jimbo gets the first big win to win back the fans and bring the swagger of the 90s back. GO NOLES! OU: 24--FSU: 27
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Auer: If the Fighting Irish lose another close one, it'll be hard to dispute the existence of a curse on Brian Kelly. Last year's game was an absolute classic with one of the greatest finishes I've ever witnessed. As was seen last week, Notre Dame's defense is absolute trash and won't be able to stop MSU, yet again. Mark Dantonio should continue to prove he's the most underrated coach in the Big Ten. MSU: 23--ND: 9
Draper: Alright Notre Dame. I picked the upset by USF in week one but thought you could beat a hapless Michigan team and you crushed me by forgetting your defense in South Bend. This is your last chance. I think Rees will play a great offensive game just like the last 2 weeks but avoid the turnovers for once. MSU is sneaking around the B1G chicken coop with no talk, but I think they'll come into Notre Dame expecting a win. The Irish will play as if a cornered badger and will finally get their first win...even though they'll still give up a ton. The Spartans lost too many starters on defense to stop Rees. This is going out on a limb, but this is your last chance Brian Kelly. MSU: 31--ND: 34
Ohio State @ Miami
Auer: If you watched last week's game against the Rockets, there are many reasons to worry about the Buckeyes. If you watched Miami play the Maryland Terrapins on Labor Day, you're worrying should probably subside. The Buckeyes and Hurricanes are both doing a bit of soul searching and it's hard to be convinced that the Bucks could lose this one. I'm expecting a further reliance on the running game and Joe Bauserman to take advantage of the suspect Miami secondary. OSU: 35--UM: 20
Draper: In the game for the ESPiN ages, the Buckeyes invade South Beach. Except the over-under of references to some sort of improprieties to be set at 1038234028 (I'd take the over). Jacory Harris makes his inspired return to the Canes much to the exultation of the Buckeyes. More importantly for the Buckeyes, Jordan Hall, Corey Brown, and Travis Howard are back in the line up. Hall will improve the running game immensely but the biggest impact will come in the secondary. UM was pretty pathetic against Maryland as was OSU against Toledo. That being said, I think the Buckeyes are in prime position to take this game comfortably. Miami will attempt to run a pro offense which the Bullets are known for shutting down. They'll key off of Toledo's screens late, but it will be too late. I expect a huge improvement from a look ahead last week (and the first made Drew Basil FG!). GO BUCKS! OSU: 38--UM: 20
Upset Special:
Auer: Illinois over Arizona State, Toledo over Boise State
Draper: Tennessee over Florida, Washington over Nebraska--I wanted Toledo over Boise but don't think they have enough left in the tank
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Grading the Buckeyes--Toledo Yikes!
The Bucks of 2011 get their first real scare of the season against the Rockets and much of the worry can be attributed to the lines. There were a lot of injuries, but the Buckeyes let themselves get pushed around way too much. Toledo is much better than people think (Herbie even went as far to suggest that they may be better than the Hurricanes), but OSU shouldn't have to sweat that game out at home. That being said, I will say today that Toledo will finish with more wins than Wisconsin's first 2 opponents (UNLV and Oregon State) combined.
Offense: C+
Joe Bauserman took a lot of heat for the offensive struggles but I'm not convinced it was all deserved. The O-Line was getting routinely beaten up front by the smaller Rocket line which was the real scare. I would have liked Bauserman to look downfield a little more but he checked down to the running back routinely which led to many questions to the receivers separation (I couldn't see if the receivers got open or not on television). If Joe can hang in the pocket and give his receivers a bit more time, I think they'd be a bit more explosion. The running game also struggled with a low average yard per carry. Getting Jordan Hall back from suspension in Week 3 will certainly help but it also falls on the O-Line. The O-Line needs to get stronger and nastier and the backs need to hit the hole rather than the backs of the blockers. Carlos Hyde has been serviceable but the extremely costly turnovers of Rod Smith will definitely limit his playing time. No Braxton Miller is a topic for the coaching section.
Defense: B-
The Bullets were flying around like crazy in Week 1, knocking heads off while shutting out the hapless Zips. Week 2 brought a new beast and the Buckeyes looked a little stunned. The underneath routes were destroying the OSU defense and Eric Page couldn't be covered. The biggest disappointment were the D-Line (until John Simon went crazy at the end) and the failure to adjust to the underneath crossing patterns (Toledo couldn't throw downfield if their lives depended on it. I raised the grade to a low B due to the stop at the end but we saw the depth of the D-Line is not a deep as before. When Simon went out with cramps and Williams sidelined for bruises, no pressure was generated. Thankfully, John Simon showed why he's an All-American candidate by single handedly disrupting the Toledo upset bid. Getting Howard back at CB will help with depth issues in the secondary next week. The long run by Page was a combination of a great athlete and a bad angle by the safety. Those issues need to be fixed right away.
Special Teams: C
This unit would certainly deserve it's standard D or F rating if not for the punt return by our 3rd string punt returner Fields. The return by Fields was huge and well blocked which totally shifted the momentum going into halftime. The punt block was inexcusable with an unblocked defender coming off the edge. That is how upset bids are made and the Buckeyes allowed it. The kick coverage and return teams were so-so but the blocked punt laid the ground work for the potential upset. The other problem on special teams was the lack of a field goal made this year. Drew Basil is not a bad kicker, but he has been put in bad situations many times. His attempts have all been outside 40 and the kick Sat was 50+. When he can get some confidence on a shorter kick, he'll be fine. We always expect Nuge and Janikowski but that's not realistic. He'll get it together but definitely not there yet.
Coaching: C-
Fickell is getting a full dose of what it means to be the guy at OSU. A win is not enough. Let's give him credit because Tressel routinely had this close game in the opening weeks with a full complement of athletes (no suspensions), but OSU expects blowouts every week no matter the opponent (fair or not). The playcalling was pedestrian and the jet sweep was continually run even with little to no success. Bauserman wasn't looking down field and the adjustment was made on the sidelines. Defensively, the adjustments to the short hit passes weren't apparent and Page wasn't doubled on the crucial plays. The biggest question surrounded freshman Braxton Miller. Everyone expected the peppering of Miller throughout but he never entered the game. I'll be honest, I like Bauserman. I think he's paid his dues and is more mentally prepared and unflappable than Miller. I would start Joe B. without a doubt and give him 80% of the snaps. That being said, the coaches showed in Week 1 that Miller will see time but refused to pepper him in for a change of pace. I would have given a play here or there just to keep Toledo guessing (more specifically, I might have let him run the 2-pt conversion to totally mess with them). Use him or don't. He's not the starter or even your QB, but he is a weapon.
Toledo projected win total: 10 (MAC champions)
Offense: C+
Joe Bauserman took a lot of heat for the offensive struggles but I'm not convinced it was all deserved. The O-Line was getting routinely beaten up front by the smaller Rocket line which was the real scare. I would have liked Bauserman to look downfield a little more but he checked down to the running back routinely which led to many questions to the receivers separation (I couldn't see if the receivers got open or not on television). If Joe can hang in the pocket and give his receivers a bit more time, I think they'd be a bit more explosion. The running game also struggled with a low average yard per carry. Getting Jordan Hall back from suspension in Week 3 will certainly help but it also falls on the O-Line. The O-Line needs to get stronger and nastier and the backs need to hit the hole rather than the backs of the blockers. Carlos Hyde has been serviceable but the extremely costly turnovers of Rod Smith will definitely limit his playing time. No Braxton Miller is a topic for the coaching section.
Defense: B-
The Bullets were flying around like crazy in Week 1, knocking heads off while shutting out the hapless Zips. Week 2 brought a new beast and the Buckeyes looked a little stunned. The underneath routes were destroying the OSU defense and Eric Page couldn't be covered. The biggest disappointment were the D-Line (until John Simon went crazy at the end) and the failure to adjust to the underneath crossing patterns (Toledo couldn't throw downfield if their lives depended on it. I raised the grade to a low B due to the stop at the end but we saw the depth of the D-Line is not a deep as before. When Simon went out with cramps and Williams sidelined for bruises, no pressure was generated. Thankfully, John Simon showed why he's an All-American candidate by single handedly disrupting the Toledo upset bid. Getting Howard back at CB will help with depth issues in the secondary next week. The long run by Page was a combination of a great athlete and a bad angle by the safety. Those issues need to be fixed right away.
Special Teams: C
This unit would certainly deserve it's standard D or F rating if not for the punt return by our 3rd string punt returner Fields. The return by Fields was huge and well blocked which totally shifted the momentum going into halftime. The punt block was inexcusable with an unblocked defender coming off the edge. That is how upset bids are made and the Buckeyes allowed it. The kick coverage and return teams were so-so but the blocked punt laid the ground work for the potential upset. The other problem on special teams was the lack of a field goal made this year. Drew Basil is not a bad kicker, but he has been put in bad situations many times. His attempts have all been outside 40 and the kick Sat was 50+. When he can get some confidence on a shorter kick, he'll be fine. We always expect Nuge and Janikowski but that's not realistic. He'll get it together but definitely not there yet.
Coaching: C-
Fickell is getting a full dose of what it means to be the guy at OSU. A win is not enough. Let's give him credit because Tressel routinely had this close game in the opening weeks with a full complement of athletes (no suspensions), but OSU expects blowouts every week no matter the opponent (fair or not). The playcalling was pedestrian and the jet sweep was continually run even with little to no success. Bauserman wasn't looking down field and the adjustment was made on the sidelines. Defensively, the adjustments to the short hit passes weren't apparent and Page wasn't doubled on the crucial plays. The biggest question surrounded freshman Braxton Miller. Everyone expected the peppering of Miller throughout but he never entered the game. I'll be honest, I like Bauserman. I think he's paid his dues and is more mentally prepared and unflappable than Miller. I would start Joe B. without a doubt and give him 80% of the snaps. That being said, the coaches showed in Week 1 that Miller will see time but refused to pepper him in for a change of pace. I would have given a play here or there just to keep Toledo guessing (more specifically, I might have let him run the 2-pt conversion to totally mess with them). Use him or don't. He's not the starter or even your QB, but he is a weapon.
Toledo projected win total: 10 (MAC champions)
Monday, September 12, 2011
5 things we learned (Week 2)
1) No one is good
This is the easy one with which to start because people are all over the place while trying to crown a champion in September. Compared to last year (and the year before, and the year before, and the year before..... you get the picture), there is not a single team that has exploded on my radar as the proverbially 'team to beat'. LSU has had the best performance of the year but Oregon couldn't get out of it's own way. Oklahoma and Alabama have been crowned but OU has beaten powerhouse Tulsa (at home) and Bama beat hapless Kent State and an overrated PSU without the semblance of a competant offense. We'll find out about OU this week and Bama soon enough (their offense is soooooo bad). I've seen more parity this year in the sport than in any other because there is NO clear favorite. All teams have myriad flaws so let's sit back and enjoy the ride before we crown a champion.
2) Defense is a lost art
What is happening in football? The advent of the spread and the run-and-shoot offenses have seemed to relegate a fairly important part of the game to the back burner. I'm speaking of defense. I can count on my fingers the number of teams thus far that have played defense this year (Bama, PSU, OSU--1 game, Wisconsin--no real opponent, ...um I'm sure there are more but...). I felt sick after watching the ND-Michigan game, not only because the Wolverines won, but also because it was one of the most horribly played games defensively EVER (Note: horribly played doesn't mean not exciting). The pendulum has swung to offensive football and my offensively focused mind likes that but not when no one is trying to stop you. It's time for a team to rise from the ashes by shutting down the explosion rather than the glitz and flash.
3) Notre Dame is closer to being back than Michigan (but unknown if they will achieve it)
While the game under the lights in the Big House had the makings of an all-time classic for the first night game in Ann Arbor, it was clear the better team didn't win. So many have crowned Denard Robinson the Heisman winner (again) when anyone with a brain can see that this team will struggle mightily. Robinson was credited with 3 picks but most of his deep balls (including the TDs) are easy pickings for a defense with a pulse. I was stunned the Irish didn't come away with AT LEAST 5 interceptions with the glorious arm punts that were lofted. With that being said, it was clear to me that:
a) Notre Dame's offense is actually really good if they can avoid the turnovers
b) Michigan is so-so offensively with Denard still being handcuffed in the pro-style offense
c) These teams have never seen a defensive playbook in their lives
The game was thrilling and literally down to the last 2 seconds, but let's stop someone. Notre Dame's problems are easier to correct in the near future on offense, but Michigan still needs athletes to run the system--the spread the field athletes are not ready for this pro offense. On defense, blow both teams up and start over (sans maybe Mante Teo on ND).
4) The new uniform craze HAS to go
Of all the sports in the country, tradition is deepest in college football. This is, in my opinion, the simplest argument of all. The rivalries, the passion, the hatred, the pride, the fight songs, the band; tradition is rampant in the sport. Another aspect that is inherent to the deep-rooted tradition is the uniforms. The numbers on the Bama helmet, the Princeton....I mean Michigan wings on the helmet, the white of PSU, the Silver Bullets of OSU all epitomize the history and tradition of the sport. Then along comes Nike and tries to reinvent the wheel. First, Oregon is used as a fashion model changing week to week with each uniform trying to be more outrageous than the last then Nike gets greedy and tries to reinvent the tradition of everyone with their 'pro-combat' unis. They've gotten out of hand. OSU saying they're wearing 'throwbacks' when in reality it is a simple ploy for the almighty dollar. Teams don't even wear school colors in the pro combat uniform any more (FSU wearing black for example). Then, to push the envelope of competition further, Under Armour creates even more outrageous (and ugly) uniforms for Maryland to rival Nike. The warmup uniforms were different and just as bad. It's time to get back to football and tradition rather than all the fashion talk. I don't care what you wear, just line up and play. Blood and mud look the same no matter how pretty you look.
5) The little guys believe.
Big Bad Ohio State gets a bigger scare from the Ohios, Toledos, and Navys of the world than they have from Michigan in the last few years. This is because the scrappy, David vs. Goliath mantra is starting to find hope in the little schools. Don't get me wrong, I think Toledo is vastly underrated, but they threw EVERYTHING at the Buckeyes on Sat (as usual) but this was slightly different...they almost won. In the past, a recruit would kill to ride the pine at Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan, or OSU rather than start at the MAC or Big East schools. The time have changed where players seek to get on the field now so more higher level recruits seek the school that will let them show their talents as soon as possible. This better breed of athlete at the lower tier schools has led to some new dynasties (Boise, TCU, etc.) as well as the real upset potential every week. It's not the Big Boys suffering; it's better coaches and players on the little sisters of the poor that know these games are their one big shot to shock the world. They know no one cares about or remembers the Little Caesars/Microcenter/Best Buy/Your Name Here for $100000 Bowl but everyone will remember the school that beats Ohio State. Quick: Who won last year's Liberty Bowl? No clue? Ok, what 1-AA school beat Michigan in the Big House in 2007? Go Appalachian State! These players know this is the chance for immortality and are stepping up to the plate. Look out Auburn, OSU, PSU, Michigan, USC, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. here comes Utah State, Toledo, Temple, App State, Utah, Tulane, Rice, Tulsa.
Of all the sports in the country, tradition is deepest in college football. This is, in my opinion, the simplest argument of all. The rivalries, the passion, the hatred, the pride, the fight songs, the band; tradition is rampant in the sport. Another aspect that is inherent to the deep-rooted tradition is the uniforms. The numbers on the Bama helmet, the Princeton....I mean Michigan wings on the helmet, the white of PSU, the Silver Bullets of OSU all epitomize the history and tradition of the sport. Then along comes Nike and tries to reinvent the wheel. First, Oregon is used as a fashion model changing week to week with each uniform trying to be more outrageous than the last then Nike gets greedy and tries to reinvent the tradition of everyone with their 'pro-combat' unis. They've gotten out of hand. OSU saying they're wearing 'throwbacks' when in reality it is a simple ploy for the almighty dollar. Teams don't even wear school colors in the pro combat uniform any more (FSU wearing black for example). Then, to push the envelope of competition further, Under Armour creates even more outrageous (and ugly) uniforms for Maryland to rival Nike. The warmup uniforms were different and just as bad. It's time to get back to football and tradition rather than all the fashion talk. I don't care what you wear, just line up and play. Blood and mud look the same no matter how pretty you look.
5) The little guys believe.
Big Bad Ohio State gets a bigger scare from the Ohios, Toledos, and Navys of the world than they have from Michigan in the last few years. This is because the scrappy, David vs. Goliath mantra is starting to find hope in the little schools. Don't get me wrong, I think Toledo is vastly underrated, but they threw EVERYTHING at the Buckeyes on Sat (as usual) but this was slightly different...they almost won. In the past, a recruit would kill to ride the pine at Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan, or OSU rather than start at the MAC or Big East schools. The time have changed where players seek to get on the field now so more higher level recruits seek the school that will let them show their talents as soon as possible. This better breed of athlete at the lower tier schools has led to some new dynasties (Boise, TCU, etc.) as well as the real upset potential every week. It's not the Big Boys suffering; it's better coaches and players on the little sisters of the poor that know these games are their one big shot to shock the world. They know no one cares about or remembers the Little Caesars/Microcenter/Best Buy/Your Name Here for $100000 Bowl but everyone will remember the school that beats Ohio State. Quick: Who won last year's Liberty Bowl? No clue? Ok, what 1-AA school beat Michigan in the Big House in 2007? Go Appalachian State! These players know this is the chance for immortality and are stepping up to the plate. Look out Auburn, OSU, PSU, Michigan, USC, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. here comes Utah State, Toledo, Temple, App State, Utah, Tulane, Rice, Tulsa.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)