Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Week 10 Picks--ARMAGEDDON

LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper:
It's finally here. The game of the year between the best teams in the country. Neither of these teams have even seriously been tested this year. LSU has played the better schedule (mostly due to Oregon--WVU is not good), but Bama has the home field advantage which I believe will be the difference--that and the severe coaching advantage with Nick Saban. Both teams have been just awesome on defense, and even though the Crimson Tide haven't played a great offense, I think they're pretty evenly matched with the Honey Badger's crew. Jarrett Lee has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers but they don't have a game changer on offense. Trent Richardson provides the Tide spark on offense to overcome the mediocre QB play--and makes a serious bid for the Heisman. Les Miles makes a late coaching mistake (shocker!) that costs his team the game. LSU: 16--Bama: 17Auer: LSU's penchant for success in night games has been one that should amaze all, 30-1 since 2001 in all games starting after 6:00pm... insane. Richardson has been a beast all year long, and on this Saturday night, he will certainly book his trip to NYC, along with the Crimson Tide all but clinching their spot in the BCS National Championship game. The Mad Hatter will strike again... but not in a winning fashion. LSU: 10--Bama: 21
Hoying: Hard to say which team has an edge in this contest. Bama has started slowly in a few of their contest this season but I have trouble believing this squad will buckle if they find themselves in an early hole. When analyzing a big game against evenly matched teams, the advantage goes to the group with the better playmakers. Both teams feature boatloads of defensive stars, but LSU lacks the go-to guy to carry the offense if needed. Bama features the better QB and RB, which should be enough to put the Tide on top. Nevertheless, expect Les Miles to pull out a few tricks that Saban wouldn't dream of running, to try to give his Tigers a chance. However, Bama is too well-disciplined to be fooled by goofy flashy plays. Go with the home team. LSU: 9--Bama:17Schweinfurth: These two teams are clearly the two best in the country. Jarrett Lee has done a more than capable job at managing a methodical LSU offense. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they are going up against a nasty Tide defense. The same can be said about Heisman candidate Trenton Richardson going up against a very good LSU defense. I feel like LSU is the more tested team but Alabama has the better coach. LSU has given up a lot of yards lately and the trend continues in Tuscaloosa. Richardson has a BIG day and Les Miles chokes on boogers and grass. LSU: 17 -- Bama: 24

Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper:
I've been riding the Pokes all year and I'm not jumping off the bandwagon. Weeden and Blackmon are terrific as always, but a running game with Randle is exploding on the scene. The offense is unstoppable and while the defense has been questioned, they've been quietly playing pretty darn well. Stillwater will be rocking and KSU will be stunned by another quality opponent. The Wildcats are remembering what it's like playing real teams. KSU: 20--OSU: 52Auer: After the KSU loss to Oklahoma, the shine has quickly worn off of the Wildcats. OSU is just too talented and KSU's defense is just too shoddy.
Hoying: Oh, K-State. You had a HUGE opportunity to come up with a statement win at home against a vulnerable Sooner squad and you played like the Kansas State of the last 5 years. You have failed me for the last time. KSU:17--OSU:55Schweinfurth: The Wildcats showed that there is a big deficiency on defense and was exposed by Oklahoma last week. It doesn't get any easier this week with the Wildcats rolling into Stillwater. This game will be Blackmon, Blackmon, and more Blackmon. KSU: 21 -- OSU: 45

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper:
Another game that will be overshadowed due to the showdown in Tuscaloosa, but it is a top 10 matchup. While Arkansas should have been snakebitten by Vandy last week, I think they will take the win over an injured South Carolina. This would have been a spectacular game if the Gamecock stud, Marcus Lattimore, was playing, but without him, Tyler Wilson and the Razorbacks should win comfortably, especially at home. USC: 20--Ark: 38Auer: Had no clue USC was ranked in the top 10... wow. Arkansas is coming off of a sure-fire loss... that they somehow won. They should be ready to play when the 'Cocks come to town. USC: 17--Ark: 34
Hoying: Who wants to be the 3rd best team in the SEC? South Carolina has had the good fortune of rampaging through the weak sauce SEC East, but they failed in their one test against a decent West team (Auburn). Without Marcus Lattimore, this team will not win another significant matchup (no, Florida next week doesn't count). Bulldogs take control of the East with a big Ar-kansas win. USC: 13--Ark: 31Schweinfurth: Arkansas is very lucky to have only one loss after narrowly escaping Nashville last week with a win. It could be that the Razorbacks were looking forward to this match up with the Gamecocks. South Carolina, without Marcus Lattamore is obviously not the same team they were to start the season. I'll take the Razorbacks (HBC is looking forward to the golf course later that night). USC: 17 -- Ark: 35

Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper:
This game is on the list for preseason expectations. We've seen the traditional Sooner bounceback and the A&M continued suck. OU returns to Norman to pay the fans back for the crap they saw 2 weeks ago. Jones to Broyles will be crazy good and Tannehill won't be able to solve a 'return to form' OU defense. Sooners big. TAMU: 17--OU: 45Auer: Oklahoma will continue to prove the Texas Tech home loss was a fluke, it won't do much good this weekend when all eyes are on the Tigers-Crimson Tide match-up. This week the Sooners take care of business at home. TAMU: 7--OU: 51
Hoying: Everyone's favorite overrated team, Texas A&M, has a chance for redemption after falling to a mediocre Missouri squad. Unfortunately, they face an Oklahoma team that for some reason everyone has decided should still be in the BCS title discussion. OU has too much to play for to lay another egg at home. Jones outduels Tannehill for a commanding Sooner win. TAMU: 17--OU: 38Schweinfurth: The Aggies continue their final romp through the Big 12 and are quietly having a very good season. The Sooners, meanwhile, were having a national championship season until that stumble at Texas Tech. The Sooners win this one and slowly try to work their way up the BCS rankings. TAMU: 25 -- OU: 42
Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper:
After the high-octane October schedule and the huge upset in the Shoe, we get .... Indiana. Letdown possibility? No. OSU is riding on cloud nine after taking down the Badgers and they will continue to play ever game as if it's their season. IU had to hate watching tape this week as the Buckeyes are playing like a team possessed. The OSU defensive lines is one of the best in the country and will absolutely destroy the Hoosier O-Line. I almost feel sorry for the IU QB as Simon introduces him to the turf....almost. Bucks roll in another statement. IU: 3--OSU: 41Auer: The best news of this week should be that the Buckeyes are bowl eligible after a win over the Hoosiers. After an epic win last week over the Badgers, many will expect some sort of let down, surely they will be sluggish during the first half, but Boom Herron will help power the Bucks to another big win. IU: 17--OSU: 38
Hoying: Minnesota beat Iowa last week, so anything's possible, right? Not quite. What's that thing that Ohio State does really well? Run the ball. What's that thing that Indiana likes to let their opponents do without resistance? Run the ball. Joe Bauserman could run the option all day and the Bucks would still cruise. Another Indiana game, another laugher. IU: 0--OSU: 38Schweinfurth: All hail Braxton Miller!!! The performance he put on last week against the Badgers was something to behold. Look for Buckeye offense continue to improve this week against a young, but energetic Hoosier team. The Silver Bullets should win this one easily. John Simon, now playing the Leo position, has a big day. Game is close through the 1st quarter (a little bit of a big win hangover) but the Bucks pull away late. IU: 7 -- OSU: 41

Upset Special:

Draper:
Texas Tech over Texas and Iowa over Michigan
Auer:
Northwestern over Nebraska, Iowa over Michigan
Hoying: Louisville over West VirginiaSchweinfurth: Louisville over West Virginia

Five Thoughts from the week that was--Week 9

1) You can't change a tiger's stripes. Different year, same teams.
Ok everyone. The story remains the same year in year out and we always expect a different outcome. Clemson riding high and undefeated; Sparty grabbing hold of the B1G; OU clobbering everyone in their path; Michigan starting a nice healthy 5-0. Then, say it with me, the same thing always happens. Clemson turns up their flaky meter and gets smoked; MSU chokes big time; Oklahoma drops a game they have no business at all losing; Michigan plays a real team/defense and remembers they can't play football. Why are we always surprised? Yes, there's the occasional aberration, but the norm is rarely diverted. Stop being surprised when the flaky teams do what they do every year, be surprised if these teams ever buck the choke trend.

2) Home field advantage is palpable in college football.
Who really thought OSU was going to beat Wisconsin? Neb over MSU? Homefield advantage is greatly overrated in many sports (NFL, MLB, NHL--pro sports not locked out), but in college, it's truly magical. The fans have so much invested, the band/cheerleaders are there, the location is familiar, and the stadiums are built for sound and craziness. Also, the tickets are hoarded and only a small percentage are sold to the opponents. Remember, when Wisky smashed Nebraska and looked like world beaters then got beaten by MSU and OSU. MSU loses to Nebraska once they left the friendly confines of East Lansing. Stanford squeaked by USC when no one really thought the Trojans had a chance. Home field isn't all there is, but it's does make a difference.

3) The reports of Ohio State's death are greatly exaggerated.
So OSU has 3 losses before November. While the streak of dominance (6 straight conference titles) may appear in jeopardy, the huge upset over the Badgers puts the Buckeyes one additional PSU loss away from controlling their destiny. Buckeye Nation is slowly recovering from TatGate and fearing potential additional sanctions, but while the rest of the B1G saw an opportunity to steal a title, the Buckeyes won't go away. In fact, they should be highly favored in all their remaining games until the Game vs. the hated Wolverines. Imagine the hatred if the Buckeyes can take all the slings and arrows and still emerge victorious. In all honesty, I imagine this to be a 50-50 shot. OSU should steamroll Indiana, PSU (at home), and Purdue, but the Wolverines may provide a challenge for the first time in years. I feel good about the game because I believe UM is the same overrated team of old (although not as bad in previous years), but it will be more competitive. I will say this: no one is looking forward to facing the Buckeyes as they remembered they are Ohio State and the title goes through them.

4) Filling the early schedule with creampuffs can be dangerous.
Wisconsin started the season with a series of horrid opponents and was touted as a national title contender due to the absolute havoc they wreaked on their foes. After a blasting of Nebraska, it appeared Wisconsin was running to the Rose Bowl (or maybe the National Title). Then, real defenses shook them back to earth. Stanford warmed up with no one....and was almost tagged in their first test in LA (I'm sure the Ducks are chomping at the bit). Yes, there are downsides as FSU threw everything at the Sooners and injuries/let down cost them the next 2 games (and most likely the ACC), but OSU, LSU, Bama (PSU isn't bad), and Oregon were tested early and look more poised than those who coasted. It's not a hard and fast rule, but it seems those tested early are more prepared for the key conference matchups.

5) S-E-Crap

Quick, name the 3rd best team in the SEC! If you answered: 'the team that just squeaked by Vanderbilt by a late comeback', you'd be correct. Yeah....Vanderbilt. Arkansas pops in at 3 in most opinions, but after the 2 world beaters of LSU and Bama, there's not a whole lot of meat. Can we stop talking about the SEC as if it was the AFC North? I will openly and honestly admit that LSU and Alabama are the 2 best teams in the country. Best at the top does not imply best top to bottom. Arkansas is ok but is living off the SEC name. South Carolina was good as a one man team but no Lattimore spells trouble. Auburn and Georgia are ok but nothing special (same level as PSU, GT, ASU, OSU, etc.). The next tier includes UF and UT but Florida lost every game in Oct. and Tennessee has faded fast. The bottom feeders are there like every conference (MSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, UK) and don't give me the worst of the SEC is the middle of other conferences. They just plain suck. SEC is the elite...at the top, but the middle is not as hefty as the B1G or the Big12 middle and the bottom is sufficiently plump.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Draper Index--Week 9

Draper Index Post Week 7
1) LSU
2) Bama
3) OU (win over undefeated KSU was huge)
4) OSU
5) Stanford
6) Boise State
7) Oregon
8) Clemson
9) Nebraska
10) Arkansas
11) Auburn (just wait...)
12) South Carolina
13) Virginia Tech
14) Penn State
15) TCU
16) Michigan State
17) USC
18) Wisconsin
19) Kansas State
20) Ohio State (rankings are unbiased, I swear)21) Michigan (In the words of Zalensky: 'Gahd, I love that')
22) Washington
23) Georgia Tech
24) West Virginia
25) Houston

I'm pleased with the rankings overall. Remember, the purpose of my computer rankings is to mirror the BCS and I think it's doing a bang-up job. The winner of the LSU/Bama game will have some major separation after this epic classic on Sat and the loser won't be hurt too much. Let's just hope it's a good game.

Notes:
--OSU over Michigan is reflecting how they entered the season but more importantly the strength of schedule. UM's best opponent was MSU and then....Notre Dame?....yeah. Not that big of a surprise after the upset in Columbus
--Auburn is riding high because all losses were against top 10 teams. Wait until Georgia and Bama
--Clemson's loss in Atlanta wasn't year ending as GT is in the rankings
--Houston gets NO LOVE but they've played NO ONE
--OU was seriously hurt by the traditional hiccup, but a beatdown in Manhattan was just what the doctor ordered. Not to mention big wins in Tally and Dallas. Look out for Bedlam!
--PSU is living off the dregs...give it time
--UGA isn't ranked but they have no good wins (UF is an ok win, but nothing special). They'll be ranked if they keep winning (currently 26)
--There are clear breaks after 2 and after 4 which is not surprising.

If I had a vote, here's my ballot:
1) LSU
1a) Bama (yeah, they're tied until Sat)3) Oklahoma State
4) Stanford
5) Boise State (tenuous)
6) Oklahoma
7) Oregon
8) Arkansas
9) Nebraska
10) Clemson
11) South Carolina
12) Virginia Tech
13) Michigan State
14) Arizona State
15) USC
16) Kansas State
17) Michigan
18) Auburn
19) Ohio State
20) Penn State
21) Georgia
22) Florida State
23) Houston
24) Georgia Tech
25) West Virginia

Notes:
--Yeah, I'm giving love to my Alma Maters, but I think it's deserved. OSU got some huge wins (beat number 15 back to back) and they look tough to beat now that schedule eases. FSU is far better than their record but left everything in Tally vs. OU. Should have (would have with EJ) beaten Clemson and Wake Forest.
--No love for bad schedules--looking at you KSU, PSU, Michigan, Boise, Georgia, Houston, Big East
--The top 7 are separated from the pack in my opinion. Look out for Nebraska to build on some momentum, but no chance vs. the top 5.

BCS predictions--pecking order for at large picks is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
BCS Championship: Bama vs. Oklahoma State (yeah, I flipped on the LSU/Bama winner)
Rose: Nebraska vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise
Orange:
Clemson vs. West Virginia

The B1G champ vs. Pac 12 champ is locked into the Rose. Clemson is locked into the Orange. The Sugar replaces Bama with LSU without blinking an eye. Fiesta gets 2 quick picks to replace Ok State and select the 1st at large. OU is the easy first pick with no doubt. While Boise/OU is the sexy rematch from 2006 in the Fiesta, I think the resurgence of Stanford, and more importantly, Andrew Luck will drive the Fiesta to select the Cardinal for TV ratings. Neither Boise nor Stanford will pull a large amount of money to the area so go with the better TV game. The Sugar grabs Boise to avoid the Big East flop even though Boise doesn't have a huge fan base. The game will be watched for Cinderella appeal but LSU will romp the Broncos. The Orange gets stuck with the last pick (aka the Big East Champ). This will hopefully be the last year of their auto-bid due to conference implosion.

Grading the Bucks--Week 9 Wisconsin

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! Just had to get that out.

Offense: B+
Braxton looked terrific under the lights but the star of the show remains Boom Herron and the O-line. Boom was running like a man possessed looking to carry the team. With that being said, Braxton really matured into a leader. When Wisky took that late lead, he was super-confident and composed to lead the Buckeyes to an ENORMOUS win with all on the table (great adjustment on that last pass to keep his eyes downfield and find the wide open receiver to crush the Badger's spirit!!). I can't say enough about the heart of the offense with some very questionable play calls. The option was run to perfection but the dive inside on every goal line play wasn't happening. Why no A? Braxton and Boom need to run North and South and hit the hole more consistently. I know that's nit-picking but it needs to be said. I question the lack of Carlos Hyde in the goal line situation and the insistence of using Jordan Hall in the backfield, but that's for the coaching section. The WRs need to catch the easy ones as Stoneburner and Philly Brown dropped some big ones (but Philly made up for it with some nice catches). Oh yeah, the key stat: 0 turnovers by the offense. HUGE PLUS!!

Defense: B+
This unit gets a straight up A for the heart and poise they showed....until those last few drives where they pulled a Houdini disappearing act. Christian Bryant made one key stop on a 3rd down, but was constantly missing important tackles (going for the pick on the first Badger TD, whiffing on key 3rd downs and going to sleep in the last 4 minutes). The secondary still has a LONG way to go but the good news is we don't play anyone for the rest of the year that can throw. Now to the excellent. The D-Line played possessed. Big Hank is a force that draws double teams on every single play and he still disrupts the play and John Simon will play at the next level without a doubt. The bigger plus is the fact that the Left Tackle (#58) as well as the remainder of the offensive line for Wisconsin was HOLDING ON EVERY PLAY!! With the occurring, John Simon was still a beast making key hurries, sacks, and ending Russell Wilson's Heisman run. If the comeback didn't happen in the last 4 minutes, I'd go with an A, but you can't give an A no matter how awesome the first 56 minutes were when you give up a 12 point lead in 4 minutes. Secondary is young, but played their hearts out. Look out for the defensive line next year. They will be among the best in the country (if they aren't already without Nate Williams).

Special Teams: B+
Another unit deserving an A+ if it weren't for one enormous brain fart. Basil was perfect (close but it still counts) on FGs and while the kickoff coverage was lax late (I don't think they started beyond the 20 until the 4th quarter), there were no huge game changers. In fact, the MVP of the special teams was Drew Basil for the 2 textbook tackles he had on kickoffs late (watch the replay, he looked better than Bryant and probably saved a TD!). Jordan Hall's fumble/turnover was a turning point that was the only thing that OSU could do to give the Badgers hope....can't do that. I don't care if he lost 20 yards on the return....catch the ball. He did redeem himself with an absolute MUST of a kickoff return at the end of the game, but it wouldn't have been needed without the muff. I love that he came back from adversity to save it but you need to know the situation. Buchanan was great on punts as he has been most of the year. Picky, but that's how I roll.

Coaching: B+
Nice job, Luke. Don't think it's enough to keep Meyer away, but I'll give credit for the gameplan and execution this week. Bollman called a pretty good game but the goalline offense was pedestrian (QB SNEAK IS ALLOWED!!!) and the choice of Hall in the backfield was a huge gaffe. The 4th and goal decision to go for it was very risky in my mind after the 3 straight failures up the gut but it worked (not saying a bad decision but tough call). I don't like punting from the opposing 38 when you have 3rd and 2. Run the ball twice instead of a bomb then punt. Again, it worked ok (pinned them deep and forced a punt), but I disagree with the decision. Hard to argue with success but I didn't like that one at all. Defensive fire and intensity was maintained all game even in the scary moments which is a credit to the coaches. I will question (as I do every week) the lack of screen and slant passes. It gives the QB confidence and it's EASY!! Especially when the defense was playing 20 yards off the line. Those plays MUST be instituted as we move forward considering we seriously have a chance of winning the B1G. Love the heart and focus from the team, love the execution for the most part, and....happier but not all the way with the playcalling. More short routes, more QB draws, more options, and more Boom. Less bombs, less Iso, less Dave....don't think that last will ever happen. Overall, great job beating the Badgers. Anytime they lose, a child smiles!