Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Week 6: Showdown in the B1G

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    18-2      (1-4 upset)
2) Draper             17-3      (1-4 upset)
3) Hoying             14-6      (1-4 upset)

Washington Huskies @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: This is the toughest call of the week for me.  I really want to pick the Huskies and I would do it without hesitation if the game was in Seattle. You know what? Let's do it.  Keith Price has been fantastic all year, and Stanford has just seemed to sleepwalk through most of their schedule.  THe Huskies are coming back to prominence and I don't think the Cardinal have an identity. Are they a running team? Passing? Defense? Sark steals one on the road to throw the national pundits prediction into a tailspin and make Oregon start to look ahead to next week. UW: 24--Stan: 20
Hoying: The late game on Upstart Saturday features a matchup of the dark horse candidates from each Pac-12 division.  It's odd to see Stanford as the established power and Washington seeking respect, but this game may reveal a great deal about the future of the pecking order out west.  Both teams feature terrific QB play, but contrary to preseason predictions, Washington has been the squad with the shut-down D.  The high-powered Illini (don't laugh) and Arizona attacks were limited by the Huskies, and Boise State's O was completely obliterated.  I foresee Stanford QB Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal suffering the same fate.  The Huskies keep pace with Oregon in the North.  UW: 28--Stan: 20
Schweinfurth: This is a tough one.  In close games, QBs can make all the difference and Keith Price is a good one.  The Huskies have looked good all season and Stanford is ripe for the picking.  Yes, the Cardinal defense is good, but that offense is meh.  As I said, this will be close but Washington takes control of their PAC-12 destiny this week.  UW: 31--Stan: 20

Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: This game shouldn't be close.  Yes, the Terrapins are undefeated and, yes, the Noles sleepwalked through the BC first half, but FSU is FAR better.  Randy Edsall is doing some good thing in College Park, but Jameis Winston and his bevy of extremely talented receivers will get it done in Doak.  FSU keeps rolling Mary: 20--FSU: 45
Hoying: Are the Seminoles vulnerable?  Everyone points to the upcoming FSU-Clemson showdown as the coronation ceremony for the ACC champion, but the Noles struggled mightily against a bad Boston College team a week ago.  Freshman QB Jameis Winston is, well, a freshman, and the shine is off the apple a bit after his ridiculous start.  On the other hand, can Maryland handle success?  The Terps haven't been in serious ACC title consideration for several years, and while the crushing victory over WVU is nice, FSU will be quite a stiffer test.  Wins for visitors in Tallahassee come at a premium, and I don't think Maryland is quite to the point of challenging the Noles on their home turf.  Terrapins lose a close one.  Mary: 20--FSU:24
Schweinfurth: Maryland is having a great season so far (B1G! B1G!) but I still feel the Terrps are a mediocre team.  Florida State is clearly looking like the class of the ACC and Jameis Winston sure looks like the real deal.  I expect a close first half but FSU makes the adjustments and rolls in the second half.     Mary: 27--FSU: 45

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The Sun Devils are on cloud nine after being the final nail in the coffin for Lane Kiffin and, let's be honest, the Irish just aren't very good.  Yes, it's in South Bend, but they're hurting after the Sooners reminded them that last year was a fluke. ASU has had the magic touch with the refs handing them the Wisky game, and I'm seeing some more late game magic under the outstretched arms of Touchdown Jesus.  The Devils defeat the Domers (uh oh...) in heartbreaking fashion.  ASU: 31--ND: 30
Hoying: If Tommy Rees could complete a pass to one of his own receivers, last week's tilt against Oklahoma would have been a terrific back-and-forth slugfest.  Time to shake up my magic 9-ball and ask "Will Tommy Rees play well this week?"  "My sources say no."  What are your mystical sources, magic 9-ball?  Why do they always say no?  ASU: 27--ND: 20
Schweinfurth: As I have written here in the past, I don't think much of Notre Dame's defense this year.  I mean, they have been bruuutal.  Arizona State can put up points in bunches.  This is clearly a mismatch.  I expect the Devil's defense to get a couple of stops.  Those are the difference in a shootout.      ASU:42--ND: 38


THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wilcats
Draper: Put up, or shut up.  I've said all year that this game could be tougher than the Michigan game, and now I truly believe it.  The Wildcats believe they're on to something special and they're looking to get their first real statement win in the Fitzgerald era.  This is also a HUGE stage for Mr. Fitzgerald where I guarantee the eyes of Texas (and USC) will be upon him.  Unfortunately, they're still Northwestern.  The Buckeyes found that taking the foot off the gas last week led to a little more drama than necessary.  Not this week.  The Bucks exert their big dog status and make a statement.  The Cat offense will score, but the Bucks score more...much more.  Look for some more deep throws to help open up the run game. Big win for the Buckeyes. OSU: 52--NW: 27 
Hoying: Fun fact: Northwestern has won three Big Ten titles in the last 78 years: 1995, 1996, and 2000.  They did not play Ohio State in any of those seasons.  In fact, Ohio State has only lost to Northwestern once in the last 42 years (and I was there, sigh).  These are not your father's Wildcats, but they have a familiar-looking defense.  That's good news for an Ohio State offense accustomed to using quick starts to take control of games.  This game will look a lot like the Cal game.  Expect some quick scoring by the Bucks, followed by a decent fight put up by a potent Northwestern offense.  Hopefully, the margin in the 4th quarter will allow Urban to continue his late-game Tresselball, since Northwestern doesn't have the means to stop a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde up the middle.  OSU: 45--NW: 31
Schweinfurth: What a big win for the Bucks at home.  To me, that game was scoreboard close.  Braxton looked to have his rifle cocked and I wouldn't expect anything less this week.  The Buckeye offense is some kind of explosive.  Hyde will get his carries and I think Jordan Hall will reappear as well against a smaller defensive front 7.  The big question will be how the defense will fare against the two-headed QB monster Fitzgerald will throw out there.  Northwestern's offense is one that has given the Silver Bullets problems in the past, and I think they will put up some points.  Unfortunately for them, Ohio State's offense is better.  I expect the Buckeyes to jump all over the Wildcats early and then nurse a decent lead all game.             OSU: 49--NW: 24

Upset Special
Draper: GT over Miami
Hoying: Minnesota over Michigan
Schweinfurth: WVU over Baylor

Monday, September 30, 2013

Grading the Bucks: Week 5--Wisconsin

Offense: A-
Braxton returned to mass acclaim as the offense fairly easily worked its way through the Badger defense.  Let's be honest, Chris Borland is a MAN and was doing all he could to turn the Bucks away, but he couldn't stop everything by himself.  I feel like Braxton carried the ball a few too many times, but that was most likely due to Borland plugging up the running backs.  The O-line was ok, but I was disappointed with the lack of a consistent running game from the backs.  Miller has shown great strides on the 'bullet' throws, but he still has work to do on the touch passes.  Overall, while I would have liked some more points (failed 4th and 1!!), I'll take a W with no turnovers.

Defense: C+
Jared Abbrederis just broke open again.  Wisconsin has ONE receiver and Fickell refused to double him (dear Bengals: see Jordan Cameron).  Roby lost thousands of dollars again for another weak performance. The run defense was outstanding, but the secondary wasn't getting it done.  Ryan Shazier played his best game of the year. Joel Stave had to beat us through the air, and we made him look like Joe freakin Montana.  Wisconsin shouldn't be able to throw the rock with impunity.  While I question Christian Bryant's technique (see blowing up the fullback on the TD), I'm sad for him that he'll miss the rest of the year.  If this defense could keep the intensity with which they started the game, we'd never give up a point.  Keep the pressure and hopefully, we can hide the lack in the secondary.

Special Teams: B-
Made a FG so we got that going for us (which is nice).  The Philly Brown punt return that was (thankfully) nullified by a penalty was just awful.  There is absolutely no excuse for him attempting to field the bouncing ball with no help.  I felt it was enough of a mental brainfart to remove him from punt returns for the rest of the game, if not season.  Turnovers in games like that can swing momentum and can't happen because the player isn't thinking.

Coaching: B-
I'm going to keep at this until Urban and Tom Herman read and heed this blog: RUN THE QB SNEAK UNDER CENTER!! This aggressive playcalling is fine (4th and 1) but the finesse running game is painful to watch.  Braxton is huge.  Carlos Hyde is a beast.  Run the ball from under center. Don't bring the ball away from where you want to go.  The other downside is the excessive amount of runs called for Braxton.  Use the stable of backs more consistently.  I know Chris Borland is good, but so is our backfield.

Overall: B
A win is a win.  Some don't like it, but I never really feared a loss in this game.  The offense again went into a shell late in the game, but there wasn't a real threat of loss.  Defensive adjustments must be made (Abbrederis is open again). Thankfully, this team doesn't play many teams with good offenses....or defenses.... For the Bucks to have a shot at the title, it appears they will need four of the following UGA to lose again, Clemson to lose, Oregon to lose, Bama to lose (maybe twice), and perhaps Stanford to lose.  That's asking a lot...