Thursday, October 10, 2013

Week 7: Surprisingly good games

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    20-4      (1-5 upset)
2) Draper               19-5      (1-5 upset)
3) Hoying              16-8      (1-5 upset)


Oregon Ducks @ Washington Huskies
Draper: Gameday comes to Seattle in what is clearly Oregon's biggest test of the year thus far.  Most people aren't paying attention to the Huskies because they played late vs. Stanford and couldn't steal one on the road, but anyone who watched that game saw the they had a really good chance to win it.  Now they return home to an absolute huge home field advantage vs. the big dog in the Pac 12.  Oregon has destroyed the scrubs of the country without a second thought, but I'm riding Washington.  Keith Price is exceptional and the Dawgs won't back down from a fight.  They lost some confidence but Sark will get them motivated.  I don't know if Oregon is ready for a real team.  Upset in Washington.  UO: 38--UW: 41
Hoying: Is Oregon for real?  Seems like a stupid question, but keep in mind that the Ducks' best win so far was at home against 3-3 Tennessee.  Sure, they've been crushing everybody, but Baylor's been doing that against better competition, and no one seems keen to put the Bears at #2.  The Huskies' close defeat at Stanford takes a little glitz off this game, but Washington showed it was good enough to hang with an elite team on the road, and the Ducks won't have the Autzen Zoo to help them out here.  To be honest,  I have no idea how this one will come out.  Both teams feature excellent quarterback play and great defense.  But Oregon hasn't been close to being touched yet this year.  Until they stumble, I'm not going to pick against them.  UO: 45--UW: 28
Schweinfurth: This may the most intriguing game of the week and may be one of the hardest to pick.  Oregon has not been tested but has put up some impressive numbers.  Oregon has had some distractions this week, mainly in their former TE that just walked off the team.  Washington played well against Stanford last week, but how good is Stanford this year?  This is the biggest home game for the Huskies and they know another Pac 12 loss all but eliminates them from the Pac 12 championship.  Add Gameday, the game in Washington, a night game, and Oregon is good for a random loss every year, I have a hard time picking against Keith Price and the Huskies (I don't see Oregon losing to Stanford).  UO: 45--UW: 48

Florida Gators @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: Gators looked pretty good last week without Driskel, but now it's Death Valley.  LSU is angry after losing 2 weeks ago at UGA and wants to punish all in their way.  The Florida defense is good, but the offense is not.  The LSU defense is good, and so is the offense.  Add in the home crowd and this one is over early.  Tigers big.  UF: 13--LSU: 31
Hoying: Ah, Florida-LSU, the classic struggle of high-powered offense versus punishing defense.  Wait, the Gators are the brick wall?  And the Tigeaouiexrs are the battering ram?  In this week's Bizarro matchup, Florida actually has the defensive weapons to slow down Zach Hamburglar and the LSU offense.  Problem is, there's no way backup QB Tyler Murphy is going to be able to do enough to keep the Gators in this one.  Miami didn't have to move the ball to beat the Gators; they just sat back and waited for the Florida offense to crap the bed.  Expect a nastier bowel movement here.  UF: 10--LSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Florida's Offense is abysmal, their defense is actually pretty good.  Mettenberger has looked good this year.  A horrific Gator Offense against that LSU defense just isn't fair and the score will reflect this.  UF: 10--LSU: 40

Missouri Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Is Missouri for real? Can Georgia fight through injuries?  I say sort of and yes.  The Dawgs are decimated at running back but Aaron Murray is capable of keeping the offense going.  The defense will step it up between the hedges.  Missouri has been chugging along, but this is the first real test.  James Franklin (the QB) will make some noise, but the hostile environs in Athens is too much.  Georgia takes care of business in a closer than the experts think battle.  If UGA is completely healthy, this is a laugher... Mizzou: 27--UGA: 30
Hoying: Some people are finally starting to take notice of everyone's 3rd-favorite SEC Tigers.  For some reason, this group does not include the Coaches' Poll, which continues to keep Missouri unranked despite decent road wins over Indiana and Vanderbilt.  A win over the Bulldogs in Athens would change the situation considerably.  The Tigers are set up nicely in this one: the Bulldogs are coming off two close victories in which key players have been injured.  The Georgia D has been suspect (yes, I know Clemson and LSU have great offenses, but Tennessee?  North Texas?), which is bad news against a potent Missouri passing attack.  I'm going to go ahead and take the...Bulldogs in this one.  The Force is with you, young Missouri, but you are not an SEC power yet.  Mizzou: 27--UGA: 38
Schweinfurth: Yes Georgia had some big injuries last week.  And yes, Mizzou is undefeated.  Regardless, Georgia is a very deep team and they still have Aaron Murray pulling the trigger.  Mizzou's spread attack will keep them in the game, but Georgia is still the better team.  Mizzou: 35--UGA: 45

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: Oklahoma is good.  Texas is on tilt.  Mack Brown should go quiet into that good night.  If he loses this one, they might 'retire' him on the spot.  Sadly, it's time to go.  The talent exists in Austin, but it isn't clicking.  I don't see Greg Robinson stopping anyone let alone the Belldozer.  Red River Shootout becomes the Red River Pink Slip.  OU: 48--UT: 31
Hoying: All I hope for this game is to see Greg Robinson rubbing a stuffed toy steer against his defensive players as they run off the field.  Unfortunately, that would require Texas to stop Oklahoma at some point during this tilt, which I don't see happening.  The Longhorns gave up 63 and 55 points to the Sooners in the last two Red River Shootouts, and those Texas squads didn't suck like this one does.  Texas bites, Texas dies, and it's goodbye to old Mack Brown.  OU: 59--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma is probably the second best team in the Big 12.  Lucky for them, Texas isn't the one team better than them.  Texas is missing their starting QB (Ash) and has a coach with one foot out the door.  I fully expect a ton of points because that's what this rivalry always provides us.  Oklahoma pulls away early and doesn't look back.                  OU: 53--UT: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over South Carolina
Hoying: Boston College over Clemson
Schweinfurth: Penn State over Michigan




Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Top 25 and Heisman ballots

Now that we have had time to digest the first third of the season, it's time to release our top 25 ballots and Heisman ballots.  Of course, this is based on our current beliefs/resumes and these will change often as we near bowl season.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. Georgia
7. Stanford
8. Louisiana State
9. Louisville
10. Texas A&M
11. UCLA
12. Oklahoma
13. Miami
14. Washington
15. South Carolina
16. Baylor
17. Northwestern
18. Virginia Tech
19. Florida
20. Missouri
21. Michigan (generous)
22. Fresno State
23. Texas Tech
24. Northern Illinois
25. Wisconsin

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Tajh Boyd (QB--Clemson)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)3. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
(Next: Johnny Manziel--QB TAMU)

Hoying Top 25
A few notes about my top "25."

First, I didn't rank 25 teams.  I only ranked the 17 undefeated teams remaining.  Why?  It's far too early in the season to sort out the scads and oodles of 1-loss teams out there.  At this still premature ranking stage, I'm giving credit only to the teams that have escaped with no losses so far (sorry, Georgia).  As the season progresses and the ranks of the undefeated and 1-loss teams shrink, my rankings will expand to a full 25 and Georgia will probably be #1 somehow.

Second, you'll notice my ranking looks really weird and very different from any other ranking out there.  For example, I have Fresno State ranked ahead of Oregon.  Why?  As nice as scoring margin is this early in the season, I'm more interested in quality wins.  Who's beaten someone who's beaten someone else?  The best quality win BY FAR this season was Clemson's opener over Georgia, so they get the nod at #1.  Scoring margin and overall opponent W-L record factor in as well, but I'm all about the quality W's.  (Playing like garbage will also knock you down the list, *cough* *cough* *Michigan* *cough*.)

Check back in each week, and my rankings will start to resemble something you would associate with a reasonable fan of sane mind (even though I'll still be making them).

With that, here's Hoying Top 17:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Florida State
5. Ohio State
6. UCLA
7. Miami (FL)
8. Oklahoma
9. Fresno State
10. Oregon
11. Missouri
12. Baylor
13. Michigan
14. Northern Illinois
15. Louisville
16. Texas Tech
17. Houston
18.
19. Georgia
20. probably
21. should
22. be
23. ranked
24. really
25. high

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Tajh Boyd (QB--Clemson)
2. Jameis Winston (QB--Florida State)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--Texas A&M)

Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. Georgia
7. Stanford
8. Baylor
9. UCLA
10. LSU
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma
13. Miami (FL)
14. Washington
15. South Carolina
16. Northwestern
17. Florida
18. Fresno State
19. Michigan
20. Texas Tech
21. Northern Illinois
22. Wisconsin
23. Virginia Tech
24. Missouri
25. Oklahoma State

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
3. Tajh Boyd (QB--Clem)


Grading the Bucks--Week 6: Northwestern

Offense: C+
The Buckeye offense left much to be critiqued this week.  First let me say, Northwestern is good.  Unfortunately, their defense is not.  This should have been a field day for Braxton and the receivers going up against the B1G's 12th ranked pass defense, but alas, it was among Miller's worst games.  I'd love to give more credit simply based on the fantastic performance of Carlos Hyde, but there were too many errors elsewhere.  3 turnovers (2 fumbles were horrible) are usually a dagger, but the O responded when needed.  Why can't we keep this early explosive offense going?  Where is Dontre Wilson?  When did Braxton forget how to throw a 5 yard fade?  And, one of my biggest pet peeves, where has the quick slant gone?  Our receivers are good enough to make plays in space given the chance.  Hyde was phenomenal in his vision and toughness, but he shouldn't have to be the only weapon on this talent-laden roster.  One final note: Urban absolutely made the right call in sticking with Braxton.  The fumbles were inexcusable, but the interception was an easy TD if his arm wasn't hit.  Braxton did not play well, but a quick trigger in a hostile environment to bring in Kenny could very easily have cost us not only in that game, but down the road.

Defense: B-
This defense is simply not as good as past Bullet defenses.  That being said, they tightened up in the redzone well and played pretty well against an extremely talented Northwestern team.  30 points should never be the goal of any defense, but, post-game, I was somewhat pleased with the defense.  Northwestern is explosive and the Buckeyes exhibited a classic bend-don't-break defense.  The pass defense needs serious work, but the line was playing very well.  I wish that more teams ran the ball because I like the run defense.  Seems like the Buckeyes can use a Ryan-esque defense in which the goal is to get the QB before they can throw.  We can't seem to cover with any number of people in coverage.  Let's also not forget the defensive TD that cost Vegas $100 million.

Special Teams: B+
Blocked punt...BOOM.  Huge momentum swing and really gave OSU some belief back when they were on the ropes.  The kicking game was fine even if someone got some punt return yards this week.  This unit has been pretty solid all year. That fake punt was terrible but I don't blame the unit.

Coaching: D
Credit the coaches for sticking with Miller (I really don't think they were that close to pulling him).  That was a good decision.  Otherwise.... Let's examine a fake punt on 4th and 9.  Woof.  I get the 'surprise' factor, but come on.  The return team didn't bail and the punter had no blocking setup...and he needed 9 yards!!! On the road, taking a risk like this isn't sneaky, it's stupid.  In addition, the Buckeyes seemed to be getting pressure on the QB when blitzing.  Every time a big down came up, we consistently dropped 8 into coverage and were picked apart.  Blitzing may open you to a big play, but sometimes you need to trust the athletes to make a play in the backfield.  It is a risk, but a calculated one.  Offensively, there still seemed to be a few too many designed runs for Braxton.  Also, quick slant!!!  We need to get more inventive throwing the ball other than 'bomb'.

Overall: B-
Big win against a very good opponent in their biggest home game ever.  Credit for the win, but expectations are always higher in Columbus.