Another crappy opponent, another beatdown. Not much to say. Let's be honest; Purdue is the second worst opponent on the schedule (sorry FAMU, you're still #1).
Offense: A
Braxton, Hyde, and ... Heuerman? Purdue clearly didn't know we had a tight end. Braxton failed to get the elusive 300 yard passing game because he had 0 snaps in the second half. Hyde, however, still reached 100 yards on 8 carries (I believe). The best thing to take away was Ezekiel Elliot looked REALLY good. Looks like OSU will have a nice back to replace Hyde next year.
Defense: A
Shutout...can't do much better. Defense scores again...can't do much better. Still some softness, but Purdue wasn't exposing it. Moving on.
Special Teams: A
Woo. No returns on punts. I still don't know why we don't bury every kickoff in the endzone to prevent a 'get lucky' moment from a bad team, but Elliot's beatdown on the kickoff was a thing of beauty. Moving on.
Coaching: A
I honestly don't remember much of this game because it was over in 5 minutes, but I loved what I saw from Vrabel and Coombs (as usual) keeping the juice flowing against a crappy opponent. Total focus is needed for this team to avoid slipups (like Northwestern--kind of--or Purdue last year).
Overall: A
Purdue sucks. On to a bye which might be a better opponent (might be tougher than Illinois too).
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Week 11: Clear the Path to a Buckeye Title
The Buckeyes, sadly, are not in action this Saturday. However, 3 undefeated teams face huge tests against highly ranked opponents. A day of inaction might be able to do what 2 blowout wins couldn't for OSU.
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 29-13 (3-7 upset)
2) Draper 28-14 (2-8 upset)
3) Hoying 27-15 (1-9 upset)
Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Is Stanford really as good as people think? Can Oregon smash a team with a pulse? This game will answer a lot of questions (or will it?) and for some unknown reason, it's hidden on a Thurs. night. Mariota has been fantastic against subpar...ok, bad...defenses. Stanford is overrated in my opinion, but still the best team the Ducks have faced by far. Kevin Hogan has quietly had a nice 'game-manager' type season and keeps the Cardinal in the discussion. Stanford ruined the dream for the Ducks last year and I see the Ducks returning the favor in Palo Alto. Stanford's offense will score...but so will Oregon. UO: 41--Stan:31
Hoying: Forget Florida State - Clemson and Florida State - Miami; this might be the premier non-bowl matchup of the year. The Cardinal offense hasn't been wowing anybody (where oh where have you gone, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck), and they suffered a puzzling loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but their defense is probably tops in the conference. That's good news, because it'll take a stellar defense and a good deal of luck to slow down Super Mariota and the mighty Duck juggernaut. Oregon hasn't forgotten about Stanford wrecking their dream season last year in Eugene, and they'll be itching to prove to the nation that they belong in the BCS's coveted #2 slot. One potential X-factor: Stanford's battle toughness. The Cardinal have been tested again and again this season and have 4 pretty good wins to show for it. Are the Ducks tough enough to come out of Palo Alto victorious? I hope not, but I think so. UO: 31--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: Everyone keeps saying that Stanford is the team that will knock Oregon off their perch (out of their pond?). Look, Stanford plays a really tough style that has been Oregon’s kryptonite. The difference is, this Cardinal team isn’t that good. Stanford still doesn’t have legitimate weapons on the outside on offense and Kevin Hogan is doing a lot with very little. You have to score points and get turnovers to beat Oregon and I don’t think this Cardinal team has it in them. Sad day for the Buckeyes ORE: 38--Stan: 20
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: This is essentially a do or die game for Big Game Bob and Sooners. Win and you're right in the mix...lose and good night. Baylor has been scoring at will with Seastrunk and Petty, but my high school plays better defense than their opponents. Can Baylor survive the spotlight without RGIII? I'm going to say no. They will score, but the big game experience of the Sooners (I can't believe I'm saying that), will carry them to a very close win. Waco will be in a frenzy, but the big boy coming to town signals the clock striking midnight. OU: 35--Baylor: 31
Hoying: Two weeks ago I made a bold prediction that undefeated Texas Tech was about to take a nosedive after finally facing the meat of the Big 12 schedule. This weekend the Bears find themselves in their own put-up-or-shut-up moment in front of a national Thursday night audience. The Sooners are no stranger to big games this season (that win over Notre Dame looks better every week) but they haven't seen anyone as sharp or as hungry as Baylor. QB Bryce Petty has been shredding terrible terrible defenses for 18 TDs and only 1 INT, and the ground game headed by Lache Seastrunk (might as well be Bismo Funyuns) is no slouch either. Oklahoma might still be the better squad, but I don't trust Big Game Bob outside of Norman. Baylor announces their official BCS candidacy with a win over Boomer Sooner. OU: 34--Baylor: 35
Schweinfurth: Have you figured out who I think is the best team in the Big XII yet? Hint: It’s one of these two teams. Baylor has been just flat rolling teams the past two years and has done so quietly. Bear QB Bryce Petty stepped into RGIII’s shoes and then broke the scoreboard. This offense is operating with more explosiveness than Ohio State and Oregon. The Sooners will have their hands full in this one. Baylor won’t jump Ohio State when they win, but that gap will sure close. OU: 35--Bay: 63
BYU Cougars @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: All I really remember of the Cougars are them blowing Texas out of the water. The Badgers are just sneaking around with their '2' losses (stupid Pac12 refs). I don't see Camp Randall being particularly kind to the visiting Cougs. Melvin Gordon and James White will run all over them. The Badger D is also pretty darn good. Wisky rolls and keeps the dream of the BCS alive. BYU: 20--Wisc: 34
Hoying: What an oddity the Cougars are. One week they're losing to awful Virginia, the next they're crushing Texas. BYU has been cruising under the radar for some time now, quietly stringing together a nice chain of wins over Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. Now they've had two weeks to prepare for a Wisconsin squad that seems to be consistently improving as the season goes on. All you old-timers should enjoy this game: a couple of brand-name programs battling while probably combining to throw for 150 yards. Don't forget, this is the same BYU team that ran for 550 yards against Texas, and Wisconsin didn't get any last-minute recruits from NC State to shore up their passing game this year. Poor Abbie Doobie. Bucky won't need you to dispatch the Cougs. BYU: 17--Wisc: 24
Schweinfurth: Look, BYU has been playing well, but Wisconsin is (debatably) the second best team in the B1G right now. The Badgers are just going to give the Cougars a steady dose of Melvin Gordon and James White. And true to Bucky fashion, will be overly successful with it. Remember that Bert doesn’t coach this team any longer and Gary Anderson will actually stick with a game plan that works. BYU: 10--Wisc: 35
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I suppose this argument comes down to 'Which loss of/to Duke is worse?' The Hokies are faceplanting every week it seems after a promising start that made Bama look good. Losing to Duke....in football...what? Then there's the Hurricanes who kept squeaking by until they were annihilated by the Noles. Oh yeah, they lost their best player in Duke Johnson for the year. Stephen Morris and logan Thomas are very similar QBs in their complete lack of consistency. Normally, I'd go with the home team....but Miami's home field advantage is like a dentist's office in West Virginia--nonexistent. Miami's loss of Duke is more painful. Hokies win to stay alive in the Coastal race. VT: 24--UM: 17
Hoying: Oh-ee-ay! Tail Spin! Oh-ee-oh! Tail Spin! After very promising starts, these two teams are in danger of falling to the middle of the ACC Coastal pack (leaving the door open for the Dukies baby!). One ship will be righted this weekend, while the other will, I suppose, count themselves lucky that they don't have to play Florida State at season's end. So who has the edge? Virginia Tech's defense looked special before being exposed at the hands of Boston College RB Andre Williams. Unfortunately, Miami's super RB Duke Johnson is out indefinitely, and the Hurricanes' suddenly one-dimensional offense won't be able to move the ball this weekend. Always a shame to see the 'Canes lose. VT: 20--UM: 13
Schweinfurth: Miami is a decent (not great) ACC team who got their tails whipped by an elite team. We can all proclaim that the “U” is not back. To me, however, Virginia Tech has turned into an also ran in the ACC. Gone are the days of a manageable offense with stout D and Beamerball. These days Virginia Tech seems to slog their way on offense. Miama has a formula to win games like this and it’s called “give Duke Johnson the ball.” They will and they will win because of it. Poster note: Tyler clearly didn't see that Duke Johnson has a broken ankle. Giving him the ball is not recommended VT: 13--UM: 20
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU's best game this year....a loss to UGA. As the Oracle would say: That's a great game...in 2011. The Tigeauxrs have done nothing this year of note. Their living on name alone. Mettenberger has looked strong, but against Bama...I'll stick with Saban. The Tide have 1 big win, but have smothered everyone else. Roll Tide at home, y'all. This is payback for 2011 (even though they go revenge when it counted). McCarron for Heisman? He's number 4 for me. LSU: 16--Bama: 34
Hoying: Every time I see this game on the schedule, I'm reminded of the abomination that was the 2011 season (never forget). There's a bit more separation between these two teams than we've seen in previous years. In particular, LSU's defense has taken a significant step backwards. Don't look for a 9-6 overtime thriller this year. LSU under Les Miles is capable of snakebiting any opponent, but Saban has had 4 weeks to get ready for this one. Y'all are Tide bait. LSU: 13--Ala: 27
Schweinfurth: This isn’t your LSU teams of the past. They can actually move the ball but that defense is meh (and don’t give me this “it’s the SEC” BS). Alabama has been quietly efficient and that defense has been outstanding outside of letting Johnny sign my Football run wild. Alabama is still coached by Saban and LSU by a moron. LSU does enough to stay close but Bama pulls away late. LSU: 17--Bama: 27
Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over UCLA
Hoying: Houston over UCF
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Notre Dame
Standings
1) Schweinfurth 29-13 (3-7 upset)
2) Draper 28-14 (2-8 upset)
3) Hoying 27-15 (1-9 upset)
Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Is Stanford really as good as people think? Can Oregon smash a team with a pulse? This game will answer a lot of questions (or will it?) and for some unknown reason, it's hidden on a Thurs. night. Mariota has been fantastic against subpar...ok, bad...defenses. Stanford is overrated in my opinion, but still the best team the Ducks have faced by far. Kevin Hogan has quietly had a nice 'game-manager' type season and keeps the Cardinal in the discussion. Stanford ruined the dream for the Ducks last year and I see the Ducks returning the favor in Palo Alto. Stanford's offense will score...but so will Oregon. UO: 41--Stan:31
Hoying: Forget Florida State - Clemson and Florida State - Miami; this might be the premier non-bowl matchup of the year. The Cardinal offense hasn't been wowing anybody (where oh where have you gone, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck), and they suffered a puzzling loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but their defense is probably tops in the conference. That's good news, because it'll take a stellar defense and a good deal of luck to slow down Super Mariota and the mighty Duck juggernaut. Oregon hasn't forgotten about Stanford wrecking their dream season last year in Eugene, and they'll be itching to prove to the nation that they belong in the BCS's coveted #2 slot. One potential X-factor: Stanford's battle toughness. The Cardinal have been tested again and again this season and have 4 pretty good wins to show for it. Are the Ducks tough enough to come out of Palo Alto victorious? I hope not, but I think so. UO: 31--Stan: 24
Schweinfurth: Everyone keeps saying that Stanford is the team that will knock Oregon off their perch (out of their pond?). Look, Stanford plays a really tough style that has been Oregon’s kryptonite. The difference is, this Cardinal team isn’t that good. Stanford still doesn’t have legitimate weapons on the outside on offense and Kevin Hogan is doing a lot with very little. You have to score points and get turnovers to beat Oregon and I don’t think this Cardinal team has it in them. Sad day for the Buckeyes ORE: 38--Stan: 20
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: This is essentially a do or die game for Big Game Bob and Sooners. Win and you're right in the mix...lose and good night. Baylor has been scoring at will with Seastrunk and Petty, but my high school plays better defense than their opponents. Can Baylor survive the spotlight without RGIII? I'm going to say no. They will score, but the big game experience of the Sooners (I can't believe I'm saying that), will carry them to a very close win. Waco will be in a frenzy, but the big boy coming to town signals the clock striking midnight. OU: 35--Baylor: 31
Hoying: Two weeks ago I made a bold prediction that undefeated Texas Tech was about to take a nosedive after finally facing the meat of the Big 12 schedule. This weekend the Bears find themselves in their own put-up-or-shut-up moment in front of a national Thursday night audience. The Sooners are no stranger to big games this season (that win over Notre Dame looks better every week) but they haven't seen anyone as sharp or as hungry as Baylor. QB Bryce Petty has been shredding terrible terrible defenses for 18 TDs and only 1 INT, and the ground game headed by Lache Seastrunk (might as well be Bismo Funyuns) is no slouch either. Oklahoma might still be the better squad, but I don't trust Big Game Bob outside of Norman. Baylor announces their official BCS candidacy with a win over Boomer Sooner. OU: 34--Baylor: 35
Schweinfurth: Have you figured out who I think is the best team in the Big XII yet? Hint: It’s one of these two teams. Baylor has been just flat rolling teams the past two years and has done so quietly. Bear QB Bryce Petty stepped into RGIII’s shoes and then broke the scoreboard. This offense is operating with more explosiveness than Ohio State and Oregon. The Sooners will have their hands full in this one. Baylor won’t jump Ohio State when they win, but that gap will sure close. OU: 35--Bay: 63
BYU Cougars @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: All I really remember of the Cougars are them blowing Texas out of the water. The Badgers are just sneaking around with their '2' losses (stupid Pac12 refs). I don't see Camp Randall being particularly kind to the visiting Cougs. Melvin Gordon and James White will run all over them. The Badger D is also pretty darn good. Wisky rolls and keeps the dream of the BCS alive. BYU: 20--Wisc: 34
Hoying: What an oddity the Cougars are. One week they're losing to awful Virginia, the next they're crushing Texas. BYU has been cruising under the radar for some time now, quietly stringing together a nice chain of wins over Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. Now they've had two weeks to prepare for a Wisconsin squad that seems to be consistently improving as the season goes on. All you old-timers should enjoy this game: a couple of brand-name programs battling while probably combining to throw for 150 yards. Don't forget, this is the same BYU team that ran for 550 yards against Texas, and Wisconsin didn't get any last-minute recruits from NC State to shore up their passing game this year. Poor Abbie Doobie. Bucky won't need you to dispatch the Cougs. BYU: 17--Wisc: 24
Schweinfurth: Look, BYU has been playing well, but Wisconsin is (debatably) the second best team in the B1G right now. The Badgers are just going to give the Cougars a steady dose of Melvin Gordon and James White. And true to Bucky fashion, will be overly successful with it. Remember that Bert doesn’t coach this team any longer and Gary Anderson will actually stick with a game plan that works. BYU: 10--Wisc: 35
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: I suppose this argument comes down to 'Which loss of/to Duke is worse?' The Hokies are faceplanting every week it seems after a promising start that made Bama look good. Losing to Duke....in football...what? Then there's the Hurricanes who kept squeaking by until they were annihilated by the Noles. Oh yeah, they lost their best player in Duke Johnson for the year. Stephen Morris and logan Thomas are very similar QBs in their complete lack of consistency. Normally, I'd go with the home team....but Miami's home field advantage is like a dentist's office in West Virginia--nonexistent. Miami's loss of Duke is more painful. Hokies win to stay alive in the Coastal race. VT: 24--UM: 17
Hoying: Oh-ee-ay! Tail Spin! Oh-ee-oh! Tail Spin! After very promising starts, these two teams are in danger of falling to the middle of the ACC Coastal pack (leaving the door open for the Dukies baby!). One ship will be righted this weekend, while the other will, I suppose, count themselves lucky that they don't have to play Florida State at season's end. So who has the edge? Virginia Tech's defense looked special before being exposed at the hands of Boston College RB Andre Williams. Unfortunately, Miami's super RB Duke Johnson is out indefinitely, and the Hurricanes' suddenly one-dimensional offense won't be able to move the ball this weekend. Always a shame to see the 'Canes lose. VT: 20--UM: 13
Schweinfurth: Miami is a decent (not great) ACC team who got their tails whipped by an elite team. We can all proclaim that the “U” is not back. To me, however, Virginia Tech has turned into an also ran in the ACC. Gone are the days of a manageable offense with stout D and Beamerball. These days Virginia Tech seems to slog their way on offense. Miama has a formula to win games like this and it’s called “give Duke Johnson the ball.” They will and they will win because of it. Poster note: Tyler clearly didn't see that Duke Johnson has a broken ankle. Giving him the ball is not recommended VT: 13--UM: 20
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU's best game this year....a loss to UGA. As the Oracle would say: That's a great game...in 2011. The Tigeauxrs have done nothing this year of note. Their living on name alone. Mettenberger has looked strong, but against Bama...I'll stick with Saban. The Tide have 1 big win, but have smothered everyone else. Roll Tide at home, y'all. This is payback for 2011 (even though they go revenge when it counted). McCarron for Heisman? He's number 4 for me. LSU: 16--Bama: 34
Hoying: Every time I see this game on the schedule, I'm reminded of the abomination that was the 2011 season (never forget). There's a bit more separation between these two teams than we've seen in previous years. In particular, LSU's defense has taken a significant step backwards. Don't look for a 9-6 overtime thriller this year. LSU under Les Miles is capable of snakebiting any opponent, but Saban has had 4 weeks to get ready for this one. Y'all are Tide bait. LSU: 13--Ala: 27
Schweinfurth: This isn’t your LSU teams of the past. They can actually move the ball but that defense is meh (and don’t give me this “it’s the SEC” BS). Alabama has been quietly efficient and that defense has been outstanding outside of letting Johnny sign my Football run wild. Alabama is still coached by Saban and LSU by a moron. LSU does enough to stay close but Bama pulls away late. LSU: 17--Bama: 27
Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over UCLA
Hoying: Houston over UCF
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Notre Dame
Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 10
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Clemson
7. Stanford
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF
11. Michigan State
12. South Carolina
13. Notre Dame
14. Wisconsin
15. Arizona State
16. LSU
17. Northern Illinois
18. Fresno State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Oklahoma State
21. BYU
22. Texas A&M
23. Michigan
24. Louisville
25. Texas
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)--His leadership on the field after the 'eye-gouge' solidified the top spot
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. UCF
9. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. BYU
16. Missouri
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Fresno State
21. Northern Illinois
22. Louisville
23. Texas
24. LSU
25. UCLA
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Schweinfurth Top 25
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Clemson
7. Stanford
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF
11. Michigan State
12. South Carolina
13. Notre Dame
14. Wisconsin
15. Arizona State
16. LSU
17. Northern Illinois
18. Fresno State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Oklahoma State
21. BYU
22. Texas A&M
23. Michigan
24. Louisville
25. Texas
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)--His leadership on the field after the 'eye-gouge' solidified the top spot
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. UCF
9. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. BYU
16. Missouri
17. Miami (FL)
18. Michigan
19. Oklahoma State
20. Fresno State
21. Northern Illinois
22. Louisville
23. Texas
24. LSU
25. UCLA
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
Schweinfurth Top 25
1 1.
Oregon
2 2. Florida State
3 3.
Alabama
4 4.
Ohio State
5 5.
Baylor
6 6.
Clemson
7 7.
Stanford
8 8.
Missouri
9 9.
Oklahoma
1 10. Auburn
1 11. Miami
(FL)
1 12. LSU
1 13. Fresno
State
1 14. UCLA
1 15. Wisconsin
1 16. Oklahoma
State
1 17. Michigan
State
1 18. South
Carolina
1 19. Texas
A&M
2 20. Georgia
2 21. UCF
2 22. Louisville
2 23. Northern
Illinois
2 24. Arizona
State
2 25. Minnesota
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
Sunday, November 03, 2013
BCS Contenders: Blind Resume Analysis
By now, it's become clear that there are 5 undefeated teams vying for 2 spots in the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena. Each represents one of the 5 "power conferences": Florida State from the ACC, Baylor from the Big 12, Ohio State from the Big Ten, Oregon from the Pac-12, and Alabama from the SEC.
The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table. There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.
But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding). I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings). If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion." But do the facts support this analysis? Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.
Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin. We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.
The resumes (order randomized):
TEAM A
Opponents' record: 31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)
TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)
TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)
If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose? You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest. Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away). Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.
A, B, and D are harder to distinguish. Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule). At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.
TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)
So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win. All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best. Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it. Who's the best? Difficult to say.
The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams. I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished. However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot. Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."
By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State
Check back later in the week to see our rankings.
The national consensus is that Alabama and Oregon are firmly in the driver's seat to claim the coveted two seats at the championship table. There's no doubt that these teams face the toughest upcoming schedules, with Alabama still having to play LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina, while Oregon must face Stanford, Oregon State, and (probably) Arizona State.
But I'm not interested in predicting the future here (weekly football picks notwithstanding). I'm interested in what the teams have done to this point (in my view, the only legitimate factor in creating football rankings). If you watch ESPN (or any other sports network), you'll hear something like, "Well, based on what the teams have done so far, Alabama is clearly #1, and Oregon is probably #2, or maybe Florida State, and these are really the only 3 teams in the discussion." But do the facts support this analysis? Let's take a look at the resumes of the 5 undefeated BCS contenders and decide for ourselves.
Each team will be assessed based on FBS opponents' aggregate win-loss record (not counting the losses against the team in question), number of wins over opponents with winning records, and average scoring margin. We'll also look at each team's best overall win so far this season.
Again, these resumes have nothing to do with future opponents, because (1) until you beat a team, it makes no sense to get credit for having them on your schedule, and (2) you never know whether a future opponent will tank before you play them.
The resumes (order randomized):
TEAM A
Opponents' record: 31-31
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 31.5 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (on the road)
TEAM B
Opponents' record: 32-27
Wins over teams with winning records: 4
Scoring margin: 25.6 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM C
Opponents' record: 22-22
Wins over teams with winning records: 1
Scoring margin: 45.0 ppg
Best win: 2-loss mid-major team (at home)
TEAM D
Opponents' record: 25-28
Wins over teams with winning records: 2
Scoring margin: 35.3 ppg
Best win: 2-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM E
Opponents' record: 34-17
Wins over teams with winning records: 3
Scoring margin: 36.6 ppg
Best win: 2 wins over 1-loss power conference teams (one at home, one on the road)
If I asked you to rank these five teams, what order would you choose? You'd probably notice that teams C and E are pretty extreme outliers compared to the rest. Team C is clearly 5th best, with no quality wins (though they have been blowing their terrible opponents away). Team E is clearly far out front, with a severely lopsided opponent win-loss ratio, the two best wins, and a higher scoring margin than teams A, B, and D.
A, B, and D are harder to distinguish. Team A has a nice road win, Team B has the best opponent win-loss ratio, and Team D has the highest scoring margin (though the weakest schedule). At the risk of making these teams' identities even more obvious, let's look at each one's second best win.
TEAM A: 3-loss power conference team (neutral site)
TEAM B: 3-loss power conference team (at home)
TEAM D: 3-loss power conference team (on the road)
So, Team A has a nice road win, a decent neutral site win, and a 3rd quality win. All of Team B's good wins appear to be at home, but their overall opponent quality is the best. Team D has a nice home win and a decent road win, but that's it. Who's the best? Difficult to say.
The purpose of this post is not to claim that there's a clear hierarchy to the 5 undefeated teams. I don't think Teams A, B, and D can be easily distinguished. However, what is plain after this analysis is that the talking heads' narrative should sound a little more like this: "Well, Team E is undeniably #1, and it's a real dogfight between Team A, Team B, and Team D for the second spot. Team C has some work to do in order to be in the discussion."
By the way, here are the teams' identities:
Team A = Alabama
Team B = Ohio State
Team C = Baylor
Team D = Oregon
Team E = Florida State
Check back later in the week to see our rankings.
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