Week 12 - Another week of 'eh...'

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    32-15      (4-7 upset)
2) Draper               31-16      (2-9 upset)
2) Hoying              31-16      (1-10 upset)


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: Pokes vs. Horns.  Is Texas morphing into the team they were supposed to be?  Can they overcome the curse of GERG Robinson? Mike Gundy is a man, but can the Pokes take on a 'real' (maybe) team?  This is the toughest game of the week to pick as these teams are pretty even in their mediocrity.  OSU has beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor and UT has taken down a strong Sooner squad.  I'm going with the home team and the resurgence of the Mack Brown led Longhorns.  Darrell K Royal stadium is the difference.  OSU: 30--UT: 34
Hoying: So...much...orange...This game always makes me think of Texas's monster comeback against the Pokes during the Vince Young era, when he made a pump fake about 15 yards past the line of scrimmage and the linebacker jumped like he was Patrick Ewing trying to block Scottie Pippen in NBA Jam. Ah, memories. After an ugly, ugly start, the Longhorns are finally starting to live up to the preseason hype, rattling off 6 wins to start conference play. Oklahoma State has also been rolling merrily along after an ugly loss to West Virginia. The problem inherent in assessing these two teams is the same problem that plagues all Big 12 matchups: the good teams played all the crappy teams first, so it's hard to get a feel for how good the conference leaders really are. I see Oklahoma State as a slightly better version of Texas Tech: inflated record due to crappy opponents. Texas is battle-tested and ready for a fight.  The Big 12 race shrinks to Texas vs. Baylor after a Longhorn victory. OSU: 27--UT: 30
Schweinfurth:  Texas just isn't the Texas of old. I really don't think much of these two teams to be honest.  While I do believe the Longhorns are still playing for Mac Brown's job, I just don't think Texas can score with the Cowboys.  This will be entertaining but I'll take the other OSU.  OSU: 42--UT: 38

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: I'm gonna do it.  I don't know why, but I have a feeling.  UGA's defense is awful, but is Auburn ready for the pressure to mount? UGA is almost back to full strength and has been playing well over the last few weeks.  I think Auburn is starting to look to the Iron Bowl but forgetting that Murray, Gurley, and Co. can score.  The Bulldogs would be well advised to slow the game down and force Auburn into a knock-down drag-em-out fight.  Auburn took down A&M but UGA (even though it's terrible) has a better D than the Aggies.  Johnny Football lost with flash; can Gurley win with a blue-collar mentality? UGA: 30--Aub: 27
Hoying: Old man football's broken hip hasn't quite recovered enough to handle the hottest team in the SEC (yes, yes, other than Bama). I'm not sure Georgia would even win this game at full strength. In the year of the quarterback, Auburn has taken the SEC by storm with a punishing rushing attack, putting up at least 35 points against their last 5 opponents. In four of those matchups, the Tigers reached 45 (way to break the streak, Bert). That's bad news for a suspect Dawg defense. It doesn't matter what happens on the other side of the ball. Georgia simply can't stop Auburn or hope to keep up. Old and busted...new hotness. UGA: 24--Aub: 38
Schweinfurth: This is a game of the walking dead versus a very hot (possibly good) team.  Let's face it, Georgia isn't the same team they were before that Tennessee game.  Auburn has had a rejuvenation under Gus Mahlzon and I do believe in what he is building offensively.  Georgia wasn't good on defense before the injuries and that continues into this week.  Georgia keeps it close for a while but Auburn continues to roll towards the Iron Bowl.  UGA:28--Aub: 40

Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: Leaders on the line for real.  A Spartan win essentially seals the Green and White's trip to Indy.  The defense is for real, but the offense is showing signs of life.  Don't get too excited; the Walrus still reigns, but Nebraska is not the answer to stop Sparty.  Nebraska may have beaten UM (ha) but MSU is much better.  Look for a suffocating Sparty YES win. MSU: 27--Neb: 10
Hoying: The B1G Leaders division race was over after the first game, with Ohio State grinding out a win over Wisconsin (shocker) to make for one of the most boring division races of the BCS era. The Legends, however, has just begun to clear up, and it seems that the winner of this matchup will be facing the Buckeyes in Indianapolis. Who has the edge?  Both teams made Michigan's offense look pathetic, incompetent, lost, uninterested, weak, hopeless, and bad.  But so did Akron.  And UConn. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini salvaged his team's season from Bo Pelini land with a ridiculous Hail Mary reception against Northwestern, while Michigan State has been quietly mopping the floor with their B1G opponents (except the freaking Boilermakers for some reason). Normally, Lincoln has a magic force field around it that protects the Huskers from losing, but UCLA shattered it and Minnesota devoured the remains. You don't need to be a good QB to score on this Blackskirt defense. MSU: 24--Neb: 10
Schweinfurth:  Question: What does Michigan State do really well at on defense? Answer: Stop the run.  What does Nebraska do best on offense? Run the ball.  It is really that simple.  I know Michigan State's offense isn't great but it is effective enough (Spartyball?).  This will be close only because of the Spartan offense is that bad.  Sparty wins and sets up an OSU/MSU B1G Championship Game.  MSU: 17--Neb: 9

Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: Stanford is living large after taking down the Ducks, but the Trojans are quietly winning without any talk.  Ed Orgeron is trying (desperately) to hang on while he can.  The Trojans will jump out to an early lead as Stanford is really built to beat a small team like Oregon.  When Stanford realizes they're in trouble, their will be just enough time to come back and squeak out the win over the horrible QB play in LA.  Trojans fight, but Cardinal escape with their eyes locked on a potential Pac12 title. Stan: 27--USC: 24
Hoying: Seeing this matchup always puts a smile on my face as I'm transported back to that monumental upset in 2007. That was also the year that Michigan lost to Appalachian State (hot hot hot), but the Stanford-USC upset was arguably even bigger and easily the worst of Carroll's career. Since then, USC has beaten Stanford exactly once, in 2008, and the Trojans are in the midst of their first-ever 4 game losing skid to the Tree. Looks like a lock for 5 in a row, right?  Not so fast.  USC might be the most underrated and overlooked team in the country. Only the really puzzling loss to a not-as-bad-as-usual Washington State team sticks out on an otherwise decent resume. The defense has been great (outside of the Arizona State game) and interim (or is he?) coach Ed Orgeron seems to have the team believing they can live up to the recruiting hoopla. Stanford will still win; they're an excellent team on both sides of the ball and their backup center has The Shining (or something like that). But don't be surprised to see the Trojans put up quite a fight and catch some experts off-guard. Stan: 20--USC: 17
Schweinfurth: Stanford is fresh off the big win at Oregon and has had an extra few days to prepare for the Trojans. The Trojans, while looking better under a competent coach, are still bad.  Stanford wins.  Stan: 28--USC: 21

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: OSU almost always has trouble scoring in Champaign.  Even if this is the case, the Illini have shown an aversion to scoring in Champaign as well.  That being said, the ground game will take center stage as the Bucks steamroll a horribly overmatched foe.  Nathan Scheelhouse has never lived up to the hype and this will be no different.  3 Buckeyes rush for 100 yards (let's go Miller, Hyde, and...Elliot I guess) and Illibuck retains a home in Columbus. OSU: 45--Ill: 13
Hoying: Whoo boy, another nail-biter. The Buckeyes don't traditionally score a lot of points in Champaign (under 30 every game since 1998) but they don't traditionally have Urban Meyer as their coach, either. This Illini defense is legendarily bad (think Purdue) and the Buckeyes have had two whole weeks to prepare...for Michigan, but they probably spent a day getting ready for Illinois, too. They should've watched game film of Indiana instead. Bucks win the Donatello trophy and keep rolling toward 13-0.  OSU: 52--Ill: 10
Schweinfurth: Look, Illinois is bad.  I mean "haven't won a game in the B1G since 2011" bad.  Yes, their passing offense has shown signs of life but 600+ yards against a meh defense and 2 (!) touchdowns is just sad.  If the wind is a factor Hyde and Miller run for 200 apiece.  Even if the wind is a factor, Braxton still throws for 250.  Buck keep on rolling.   
OSU:63--Ill: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Duke over Miami (FL)
Hoying: Texas Tech over Baylor
Schweinfurth: Houston over Louisville

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 11

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Oklahoma State
12. Michigan State
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. Texas
22. Oklahoma
23. LSU
24. Virginia Tech
25. Minnesota

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)

Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. South Carolina
8. Arizona State
9. Oregon
10. UCLA
11. UCF
12. Oklahoma
13. Clemson
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Texas
17. Oklahoma State
18. Fresno State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Notre Dame
21. Texas A&M
22. Mississippi
23. Wisconsin
24. Virginia Tech
25. Georgia

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
[4. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)]

Schweinfurth Top 25

2    1.   Florida State

3    2.    Alabama

4    3.    Ohio State

5    4.    Baylor

6    5.    Clemson

7    6.    Stanford
7    7. Oregon

8    8.    Missouri

1    9. Auburn

1    10. Fresno State

1    11. UCLA

1    12. Wisconsin
      13. Oklahoma

1    14. Oklahoma State

1    15. Michigan State

1    16. South Carolina
      17. LSU

1    18. Texas A&M

2    19. Georgia
      20. Miami (FL)

2    21. UCF

2    22. Louisville

2    23. Northern Illinois

2    24. Arizona State

2    25. Minnesota

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)

Why Stanford over OSU is stupid and 'the bet'

Ok everyone. Let's take a deep breath.  We saw Stanford dominate Oregon for 50 minutes (and almost gag away a 26 point lead in 10 minutes...) and everyone in the media wants to jump them over OSU and Baylor.  In fact, a friend of mine (let's call him G. Pyle to protect his identity) texted me that he'd 'bet his testicles' that Stanford would jump OSU in the BCS this week because 'the media hates us'.  This may not be absolute nonsense as shown by Jesse Palmer's incessant need to "not discount the Utah loss...but they didn't play Stanford football!', but the thought of Stanford jumping is ludicrous.

Why? Let's take an objective view.

OSU is an undefeated team in a BCS conference.  Yes, the B1G is down, but the facts speak for themselves. Also, the Buckeyes were ranked preseason number two.  As stated in a recent College Football News column, this is the first time a team who started number two dropped to four without losing.  Why, you ask, doesn't this permit Stanford to jump the Bucks? Let's compare resumes.

Stanford wins (in order of significance--subjective): Oregon, UCLA, ASU, Washington, Oregon State, WSU, Army, SJSU

OSU wins (in order of significance--subjective): Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Buffalo, Penn State, SDSU, Cal, Purdue, FAMU

Oregon vs. Wisconsin--What has Oregon done this year? The win over UCLA was nice, but other than that, the stupid 'eye test' is what helps the Ducks.  Wisconsin should be 8-1 but the dumb Pac 12 refs messed it up.  Either way, edge: Stanford (but it's closer than you think).

UCLA vs. Iowa--UCLA seems to be falling after a hot start, but their best win is over failing Nebraska (win % of teams UCLA beat=0.379--25-41) .  They've lost their only 2 'tough' games.  Iowa is 6-4 but the losses are to teams with a combined 3 losses (and one of those losses is the disputed Wisc. ASU game). Granted, Iowa's wins were against bad teams as well -- except Minn--but are these teams that  different? Edge: Stanford

NW vs. Wash--I skipped to Washington because these teams match so well.  Both NW and Wash were ranked 16 and 15 respectively when OSU and Stanford beat them and 'ended' their seasons.  NW hasn't won since (losing on a Hail Mary--but all losses came to teams with winning records) and Washington followed the loss to Stanford with blowout losses to Oregon and ASU before beating Pac 12 bottom feeders.  I still believe NW is a decent team, but the loss in their biggest home game EVER killed their hopes.  I say this is a push

ASU vs. Buffalo--Take the jersey names away.  ASU's has 'wins' over Wisc (disputed) and USC--causing Kiffin's canning.  Buffalo has 2 losses...to undefeated teams.  Yeah, their wins don't wow anyone, but they're trouncing every in their path (except Stony Brook).  Neither has really proven anything, but the 'win' over Wisc is better than Buffalo's impressive record.  Slight Edge: Stanford

OregState vs. Penn State: PSU's losses came to 2 BCS front runners and another division contender.  Oregon State lost to Eastern Washington....yeah. Both teams have equivalent 'bad' wins, but the loss to EWU kills the Beaver's argument.  Slight Edge: OSU

The rest--The other teams don't matter.  Push

OK.  So it appears that Stanford has the clear edge in win quality over OSU when all is said and done.  Now to add in the last component: Losses

Stanford (key losses)--Utah
OSU (key losses)--none found

Herein lies the rub.  Stanford lost to Utah.  People may 'forget' it now and try to ignore it, but those that matter, cannot.  This blemish ends all argument.  Yes, they have (slightly) better wins, but it just doesn't come close to outweighing a bad loss (or any loss).  I don't care if they weren't 'playing Stanford football' that day.  They lost.  It counts.  Are they better than OSU? Maybe, but that's not the issue.  The goal of the BCS should be (and more or less, is) who is the most deserving?  The best team in ANY playoff scenario doesn't always win...and the BCS is a two-team playoff.  Any playoff scenario should try to match the top deserving teams--of which, Stanford is not.

On any given Saturday, anyone of the following: Bama, FSU, OSU, Baylor, Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn), could be the best team in the country, but it doesn't matter.  Two get a shot and Stanford, Clemson, Oregon, and Auburn have already blown their chance to be considered at this time.  If the argument devolves to choosing among 1 loss teams, then the conversation changes.

Note: What about Northern Illinois and Fresno State? Yes, they are undefeated, but this is the 'Boise State' scenario.  When you have no wins of any note (and yes, wins over Wisconsin--Bucks, Oregon--Stanford, UCLA--Oregon, Clemson--FSU, LSU--Bama, UGA--Clemson, Oklahoma--Baylor are 'wins of note'), this disqualifies you from an 'undefeated argument'.  If, however, there was only 1 undefeated team (or none) from power conferences, NIU and Fresno State must be discussed (probably won't win, but deserve to be in the conversation).

Right now: it's FSU and Bama.  Their resumes clearly beat all other contenders.  If one loses, there will be an argument between OSU and Baylor.  If another spot opens...get ready for a wild ride--exactly what is expected and what makes college football so fun.  Let the system work itself out, but don't let one game overwhelm the body of work from a season.

That being said, anyone that wants to collect on the 'bet' with Mr. Pyle is welcome to have at it.