Thursday, November 21, 2013

Week 13--A few good ones before the big rivalries

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    36-16    (4-8 upset)
2) Hoying               34-18   (1-11 upset)
3) Draper             33-19      (3-9 upset) --KNOCK IT DOWN GEORGIA!!! That's what I get for going on a limb


Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Sooners
Draper: Ok Baylor, you passed the first test vs. Oklahoma, but the Pokes might be the better option from the Sooner State this year.  Oklahoma State isn't a world beater (see WVU), but fans in Stillwater can get a little rowdy (my Uncle Chip can heckle with the best of them).  Imagine if you will, that the Cowboys don't gag a cheap game in Morgantown...this is a top 5 matchup with OkState favored!  The Pokes have an explosive ground game and fairly good defense.  Baylor has been murdering everyone, but their defense leaves much to be desired.  I think the magic of T. Boone ends the 'threat' to the Buckeyes and Baylor drops their first of the year in a shootout.  BU: 42--OSU: 45 
Hoying: Can Baylor handle success? Fresh off a huge win over Oklahoma, the Bears looked lost in the early goings against a mediocre Texas Tech team, but they quickly regrouped and came away with a convincing victory. A lack of focus against the Cowboys will not so easily be forgiven. The Bears don't have much road experience, and they looked quite vulnerable against a middling Kansas State team in Manhattan. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is riding high amidst a terrific November highlighted by a dismantling of Texas. Baylor is favored by about 10, but that's garbage, and the editor who let it come out is garbage. The dream season in Waco comes to an end and ESPN never gets to find out if Ohio State would've been jumped. BU: 34--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Can the Baylor Bears handle success and a very tough schedule to end the season.  In all honesty, Baylor is the best team in the Big 12 but still must out score teams to win, which hasn't been a problem.  Oklahoma State is one team that can score with the Bears and not break a sweat.  This will be high scoring to the finish and the Baylor schedule finally catches up to them.  BU: 49--OSU: 52

Texas A&M Aggies @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: Which of these teams is less disappointing?  Both dropped a game vs. Bama (A&M was closer but it was at home).  LSU has the worst loss (Ole Miss) but the best win (Auburn).  The game is in Death Valley and the Tigers have proven to get a stop once in a while.  Manziel has put up fantastic numbers, but the A&M defense is the difference...they're terrible.  Johnny Football will have a nice game that will have ESPiN talking Heisman (even though Jameis has it locked barring disaster), but Mettenburger will carve up the atrocious Aggie defense.  Another high scoring game in the 'defense-oriented' SEC.  TAMU: 31--LSU: 38 
Hoying: If you want to beat Johnny, you have to stop Johnny. Alabama and Auburn didn't stop him much, but they were able to do just enough to slow him down while their high-powered offenses shredded a terrible, terrible, TERRIBLE A&M defense. Zach BobaFettenburger and the LSU offense have the explosive power to stay competitive with Johnny Hancock, but the standard LSU brick wall D isn't there this year. Mr. Heisman stays in contention to join the exclusive Archie Griffin club if Famous Jameis follows a long proud line of FSU QB's kicked off the roster. TAMU: 45--LSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Has anyone actually noticed that LSU is a 3 loss team.  Don't forget that the Aggies' defense isn't very good.  Mettenberger and Manziel should put up some good numbers for that reason.  The big difference in this game will be Les Miles. Because he's dumb.  I expect him to make a stupid decision at some point in this game that will give the Aggies good field position.  TAMU: 35--LSU: 30

Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: The fact that this game is up here is a tribute to the amazing season the Gophers have put together.  Wisconsin has looked very good, but has no wins of note (yes...ASU, but I see an L by their name).  Beating Minnesota might be the biggest win for the Badgers this year...oh what a world. Minnesota keeps winning with no particular standout player/unit.  They play sound football under OC Claeys (which is a tribute to Coach Kill), but I don't think they can stop the Badger rushing attack.  Melvin Gordon, James White, and AbbyDooby keep the ax and eliminate the Gophers from Legends contention (although this is the best year for Minn in a long time).  Wisc: 34--Minn: 24
Hoying: Did you see what Wisconsin did to Indiana? Yes, yes, I know, it's Indiana, but the Badgers took a team averaging 40 points a game and held them to 3. Not even Ohio State does that in the B1G. Minnesota is a fun success story, but the Badgers have been crushing their (mostly terrible) competition after 2 tough losses to good teams. The Gophers will fight to keep it close, but Wisconsin is clearly the better team.  Wisc: 28--Minn: 20
Schweinfurth: The Gophers have 8 wins? Who saw that one coming? With that said, I do believe Minnesota is starting to turn a corner.  However, they are just starting to turn that corner.  Wisconsin is just ground and pound juggernaut. Wisconsin just flat pounds teams with that massive (fat) offensive line followed by the quickness of White and Gordon.  Abredarous will do enough to keep the Minnesota defense honest and Wisconsin pounds out 400 yards on the ground again.  Hoist that Ax Badgers. Wisc: 35--Minn: 17

Arizona State Sun Devils @ UCLA Bruins
Draper: Hundley and Company have had a very nice season in LA with no bad losses...but no good wins either (Nebraska...please).  The Sun Devils dropped one in South Bend but have the 'win' over Wisconsin.  These teams are fairly even but I like the team with the better QB which has to be UCLA.  The game being in Pasadena doesn't hurt either.  I'll be honest, I know very little/nothing about ASU, but this will make the Pac 12 South a lot of fun.  ASU: 30--UCLA: 34
Hoying: Get ready for some points on the scoreboard, folks. Both teams feature terrific QB play, and neither team's defense is quite good enough to slow the other down. Pac-12 refs will be officiating this one, so any outcome is possible, but I have a hunch that the Sun Devil offense will be slightly more prolific. Arizona State takes the Pac-12 South and prepares to face Oregon. ASU: 38--UCLA: 31
Schweinfurth: I know this game should be an entertaining one (is Gus Johnson calling this game?).  Outside of that, I really know very little about each team.  I do know that Hundley is a very good QB and ASU was gifted a win this year.  I'll take the Bruins. ASU: 38--UCLA: 42

Missouri Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels
Draper: Ole Miss and Dr. Bo Wallace have the feather in their cap for beating LSU, but they are wildly inconsistent.  The Tigers, on the other hand, have been a model of consistency (other than the second half vs. South Carolina).  No one knows how they keep winning, but they do, even with Maty Mauk. I think the train keeps rolling in Oxford with the Tigers quietly winning with good defense and consistent game-managing offense.  OleMiss: 17--Mizzou: 31
Hoying: Remember when Missouri QB James Franklin went down in that huge win over Georgia? Since then, the Tigers have inexplicably gotten better, just a botched chip shot field goal away from likely still being undefeated. But now the West comes calling, leading off with red-hot Mississippi. The Rebs have a nice win over LSU but have feasted on a steady diet of crap since then. Missouri is a lot more similar to the Alabama, Auburn, and A&M that conquered Ole Miss than the Idaho, Arkansas, and Troy that have padded the Rebels' record. Y'all are Tiger bait. OleMiss: 24--Mizzou: 41
Schweinfurth: Missouri holds it's SEC title game fate in their black and gold hands.  Whether or not James Franklin plays nor not doesn't matter too much.  Maty Mauk picked up right where Franklin left off and didn't miss a beat.  Yes, Ole' Miss has some very good defensive players but that can't stop this Tiger offense.  Mizzou keeps rolling to the showdown with 'Bama in the SEC championship game.   
OleMiss: 20--Mizzou: 38

Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: I was somewhat nervous about this game a few weeks ago.  The IU offense is no joke and the OSU secondary...well, it is a joke, but the Hoosiers have cooled off fast.  The other benefit is that IU has no defense at all.  The Buckeye offense with Miller and Hyde should steamroll the Hoosiers.  Indiana will score (too much), but it won't be close on Senior Day to matching the Scarlet and Gray (can't say that against Michigan :( ).  Buckeyes finish the home season in style with some Smooth Jazz.  Kenny Guiton will score at least one TD in this game--take it to the bank.  IU: 34--OSU: 65
Hoying: It's Senior Day at Ohio State and what a welcome these Seniors deserve. After having their terrific freshman season wiped out and gutting through a tough sophomore campaign, these Men of the Scarlet and Gray haven't lost a game since. A win in Ohio Stadium over In iana would push the Buckeye winning streak to 23 games, a school record.  Will it happen?  Almost undoubtedly. In iana can score (except against Wisconsin) but there's something missing...oh yes. They left the D out of In iana this season. This game could look like the Cal game, or it might end up looking like Penn State if the Hoosiers make too many mistakes early. Buckeyes get a nice tune-up for 2 games against teams up north. IU: 20--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: So, did everyone see what Wisconsin did against the Hoosier D last week? How about what Braxton and El Guapo against Illinois.  Yea, we could totally see 600 yards of offense ON THE GROUND.  The way Hyde is running right now would make you think he is one of the best running backs in the nation, and he is.  I fully expect him to blow past the 1,000 yard mark early in this one to provide Urban his first 1,000 yard back and on senior day no less.  Braxton is going to have his way through the air as well(last week was a blip on the radar).  Indiana can move the ball, and I fully expect them to do so (stupid Air Raid offense).  Yet again, the Bucks jump out to a big lead early and don't look back (especially after last week and last year).  Expect some smooth jazz at some point in the first half (maybe even the start?).  IU: 21--OSU: 70

Upset Special
Draper: Chatt over Bama (not really)--I don't know....Toledo over NIU
Hoying: Kansas State over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Rutgers over UCF

Top 25 Rankings, Heisman Ballots, and updated BCS projections

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
1A. Florida State
3. Ohio State
3A. Baylor
5. Auburn
6. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Oregon
9. Michigan State
10. Oklahoma State
11. Stanford
12. South Carolina
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State

17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. LSU
22. Oklahoma
23. Minnesota
24. USC
25. Duke

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)


Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State

Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Baylor
4. Ohio State
5. Auburn
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. South Carolina
9. Arizona State
10. UCF
11. Texas A&M
12. Clemson
13. Oklahoma
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. UCLA
18. Oklahoma State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Notre Dame
23. Mississippi
24. USC
25. Duke

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)

Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State


Schweinfurth Top 25


2    1.   Florida State
3    2.    Alabama
4    3.    Ohio State
5    4.    Baylor
6    5.    Clemson
7    6.    Stanford
7    7. Oregon
8    8.   Missouri
1    9. Auburn
1    10. Fresno State
1    11. UCLA
1    12. Wisconsin
1    13. Oklahoma State
1    14. Michigan State
1    15. South Carolina
      16. LSU
1    17. Texas A&M
2    18. Georgia
      19. Oklahoma
2    20. UCF
2    21. Louisville
2    22. Northern Illinois
2    23. Arizona State
2    24. Minnesota
      25. USC

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)

Schweinfurth BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Grading the Bucks--Week 12: Illinois

Offense: A-
Not too much to be concerned about here.  Hyde is an absolute beast and would definitely be in the thick of the Heisman race if he hadn't had the off the field issue.  I think his best quality is that he seems to run harder as the game goes on. You could notice a slight difference with no Jack Mewhort, but the drop wasn't significant (he will be good to get back).   The O-line is still wearing teams down physically which is good to see. Miller is running fabulously, but his passes have not been as sharp as they should be.  Yes, it was windy, but he was missing too many looks.

Defense: C-/D+
And now Buckeye Nation is reminded that this defense isn't very good.  They did score a TD but giving up 35 is unacceptable to any opponent let alone hapless Illinois.  Scheelhouse has had flashes, but he shouldn't have looked competent against the Buckeye defense.  Roby has simply not been the same player and the loss of Christian Bryant (I can't believe I'm saying this) is a problem.  The secondary can not cover which will most likely be exploited in a bowl game vs. a talented opponent.  IU will score, but not enough; UM sucks; MSU offense sucks; but a Oregon or FSU...yikes.  Noah Spence and Joey Bosa have been phenomenal rushing around the ends but can our line win a 'blue collar' game vs. Bama.  I'm not sure.  This unit is what it is--mediocre.  Not the Bullets of old.  I like what I've seen from Shazier, Bose, and Spence--that's about it.

Special Teams: D-
This was a horrendous special teams game.  I'm keeping them out of F land because Cameron Johnston was punting very well, but the breakdown on the punt coverage was just plain awful.  Maybe our coverage unit has been spoiled since Johnston has only allowed 2 returns coming into the day.  Can't forget the missed PAT as well.  This unit played the worst they've played all year.  I think it was probably due to a lack of mental focus, but that is no excuse.

Coaching: C-
Offensively, I'm still flabbergasted at the number of designed runs called by Tom Herman for Braxton.  Miller is made of glass...perhaps we should utilize his special talents more sparingly to avoid another needles injury.  The playcalling was OK other than that, but I still say FEED THE BEAST in short yardage situations.  Carlos needs more carries--he's averaging an eyepopping 7.9 yards a carry.  I was surprised to see he had 24 carries last week, but they were mostly in the second half.  If he can take the beating (I think he can since the line blocks so well), stop these finesse pass plays on 3rd and short.  Go for the bowling ball.  Defensively, the bigger problem is the players than the coaches, but that being said, the coaches need to utilize the players they have and 'coach them up'.  I'd like to see some more creative blitzes to rush the QB because our secondary gets picked apart is the QB has too much time.

Overall: B-
As opposed to what ESPiN would like you to think, the Bucks were never in any danger of losing this game, but they didn't play near to their capabilities.  Great teams bring it every week, and we're not there.  The defense absolutely needs to improve to compete at the highest level.  The good news going forward is that the offense is getting better and can hide some defensive flaws. The bad news is we'll have to stop a high-powered offense in the bowl game at some point. Time to get better.