Week 15: Conference Championships

Standings
1) Hoying              44-20    (1-13 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    43-21    (4-10 upset)
3) Draper                41-23    (3-11 upset)
4) Seeberg               3-3      (0-1 upset)

SEC: Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: I remember 2006 when a team defeated their rival (as a top 5 matchup) and believed the season was over.  They had reached the pinnacle, and the championship was a formality.  After the game, I believe I watched one of the biggest flops in history as the Gators stomped the Buckeyes and stole the Title.  The Bucks were slow, lazy, and unprepared.  Seems like we are seeing a repeat here with Auburn.  Missouri is one of those teams a coach has to hate planning for: they are good at everything, with no one thing to focus on.  Auburn has been great (and lucky), but they've laid it all on the table while Mizzou is quietly waiting for their chance.  While Auburn argues against OSU, the Tigers (Missouri brand) are prepping to slow down the Auburn rushing attack.  James Franklin and crew steal the 'assumed' SEC championship and send Auburn from arguing about the title game to the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou: 31--Aub: 28
Hoying: On October 30, in our first BCS projections of the season, I predicted that Auburn would land in the Sugar Bowl, not as a replacement for Alabama in the Championship Game, but as the SEC champion. Two miracles against Georgia and Alabama later (propelling me to the top of the picks standings), I...am abandoning my projection. Why? I thought (correctly) that Nick Marshall's dual-threat capability would keep Auburn in the game against Bama long enough for a little rivalry magic to strike. However, across the SEC, Missouri's defense was busy throttling everyone's favorite waning Heisman contender, Johnny Football. Am I implying that Missouri has a better defense than Alabama? Maybe, but what I'm really saying is that I don't expect lightning to strike 3 times. Missouri has been solid in every phase of the game, from James Franklin's excellent quarterback play, to possibly the best stable of receivers in the game, to a fantastic rushing attack behind the one-two punch of Josey and Hansbrough, to the terrific defense led by the SEC's leading sack and TFL leader Michael Sam. Tigers win, jump up to #3 in the BCS (spoilers on two picks below), and bring their magical 2nd SEC season into the Sugar Bowl. Mizzou: 27--Aub: 20
Schweinfurth: Auburn should have "Livin' On A Prayer" as their fight song this year.  Seriously? A miracle Hail Mary to end the Georgia game and then that finish last week.  One would think that Gus Malzahn's magic has to run out at some point.  I believe that will be this week.  James Franklin and the Mizzou Tigers are flat rolling right now.  I do believe the Missouri defense will give up some points (a good pass rush can be hurt by the misdirection offense).  This will not be the SEC Championship games of old. Mizzou: 38--Aub: 35
Seeberg:  At this time last week, I would have picked Missouri in this matchup without too much hesitation.  James Franklin had returned and I figured they would blow TAMU out pretty handily.  Not only was the game close, however, but Mizzou only mustered 28 points against a pretty lousy defense.  That said, holding Johnny Sign-a-Football to just 21 points has been no small feat the last two seasons.  Despite their offensive struggles, Franklin now has a week of gameplay under his belt since returning from injury and I still believe that the Tigers (Missouri Tigers, that is) have the more multi-dimensional offense which will, in the end, prove the difference.  Mizzou: 31--Aub: 21

ACC: Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Duke is playing one of their best season's in history and no one is giving them a prayer...and they're right.  The Noles have been nearly flawless this season stepping on the throat early and not letting up.  The trio of receivers and stellar backfield are not even talked about with Famous Jameis leading the way.  Oh yeah, the defense is pretty darn good too.  This will be a traditional FSU game of 2013 with a 30+ point halftime lead and a cruise to Pasadena.  FSU: 55--Duke: 13
Hoying: Florida State has been the most dominant team in college football this year. The Noles lead in scoring defense and sit second behind Baylor in scoring. Sure, FSU has had its share of cupcakes on the schedule, much like our beloved Buckeyes, but it's not like Duke went 10-2 against any tougher of a schedule. The Blue Devils are a nice story, but they've been squeaking through to the finish. Duke also got to duke it out against a Miami without Duke Johnson, while the Noles licked the Canes even with their best player intact. There's no reason this should be close. Unless...no, there's no reason.  FSU: 45--Duke: 13
Schweinfurth: Duke has had a season to be remembered.  The Blue Devils have risen from the ashes to become relevant in the ACC for the first time in, oh, forever.  David Cutclife and the rest of the Dukies should be truly proud of this magical season.  Unfortunately it is all about to come crashing down.  Florida State, with or without Jamies Winston, is an absolute force on offense.  If Clemson couldn't keep up with the 'Noles, Duke definitely cannot.  Expect the Blue Devils to play with some emotion and hang on for part of the first quarter, but then it's all FSU, all night long.  FSU: 52--Duke: 20
Seeberg:  A recent statement from the Florida State Attorney's office stated that there may be a decision on the impending Jameis Winston issue before the weekend.  In other words, the Florida State Attorney's office has a significantly better chance of thwarting FSU's season than the Duke defense does.  Fourth-quarter comeback wins against the likes of Wake Forest (whose stadium, it bears mentioning, is roughly 25 miles from my apartment and is barely half-full for most games) make for a good story, but the Seminoles will write the last chapter much to the Blue Devils' dismay.  FSU: 52--Duke: 17

Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: Rematch! But in a new place... How good is Stanford? They have good wins, but 2 losses (one good one bad).  How good is ASU? Good wins and...2 losses (one good--Stanford, and one eh..).  I could see this one going either way, but I'm going with the home team.  Todd Graham has his team churning along without the hype of Stanford.  Stanford assumes the title after beating Oregon, but Oregon showed their true nature over the last few weeks.  Go Sparky! Stan: 20--ASU: 24
Hoying: Aaaagh, this is the worst kind of conference championship game. It's like a reboot of last year's Stanford-UCLA rematch, only with a twist: the team that won the head-to-head this time is less deserving of the title. True, Stanford already beat Arizona State earlier in the season, but the Cardinal has collected two Pac-12 losses since then against teams that ASU beat (Utah and USC). That being said, I don't see any reason why this game shouldn't play out much the same as the first matchup, a convincing Cardinal victory. Home field might make some difference, but not enough to keep Stanford from its first back-to-back Rose Bowls since 1971-72. Stan: 35--ASU: 27
Schweinfurth: I have to be honest when I say that I really have not watched much Pac-12 football this year.  Arizona State has played well but has a loss to Stanford already this season.  I don't see ASU not turning the ball over a couple times here (you can't put the ball up 50+ times a game and not have a pick or two).  This game will be closer than the matchup early in the season but Stanford turns that turnover into points. Stan: 31--ASU: 24
Seeberg:  Stanford has been very up and down the last month:  dominating Oregon, then losing to USC.  Annihilating Cal in a rivalry game, then struggling to put away Notre Dame.  ASU has not lost since early October, but a couple of weeks before that they were handled pretty easily by- you guessed it- Stanford.  The Sun Devils get this title game at home and are coming off a whipping of their in-state rivals who had just whipped Oregon (at least De'Anthony Thomas doesn't have to go to the Rose Bowl now, you know, since he wasn't that interested in going anyway).  Arizona State only scores 28 again, but it's enough, unlike last time.  Stan: 21--ASU: 28

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Bedlam is always a good time.  OU has sputtered this whole year with all kinds of problems--especially questionable QB play.  OSU stomped Baylor in their first 'Game of the Century (of the Year)' but it all is for naught without a big win at home in Bedlam.  I love the Poke home field advantage and their poise in the last big game (Baylor) and I don't see a difference here.  Rivalries make for interesting things, but the Pokes behind Clint Chelf look ready to go.  The loss to WVU just doesn't make sense.  The rebound continues on the way to the Fiesta.  OU: 27--OSU: 38
Hoying: Shuffle, shuffle, do the quarterback shuffle. Both teams enter Bedlam with season-long quarterback issues. The Cowboys seem to have settled on senior slinger Clint Chelf, especially after a fantastic performance against Baylor, while the Sooners have rediscovered their love for freshman phenom Trevor Knight after Blake Bell bit badly getting beat by the Baylor Bears. This one looks like an easy pick for the Cowboys, but I'm not so sure. The Cowboys historically underperform against the Sooners, and I just have a feeling that with a 2nd Big 12 title in 3 years in their grasp, OSU will let the moment slip away. Big Game Bob comes through and the Bedlam series becomes even more lopsided. OU: 31--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: If last week's rivalry games told us anything, it's that these games are flat unpredictable.  Ultimately, the Cowboys have looked very good against some very good offenses this year, see Baylor.  OSU likes to jam the receivers at the line and this throws the timing of these offenses way off.  The Cowboy offense is very efficient and has played well all year.  Oklahoma is good enough to keep it close but OSU is the better team. OU: 28--OSU: 38
Seeberg:  After crushing Baylor on a national stage, OSU #2 (remember, they got crushed 33-7 by THE OSU in the Alamo Bowl several years ago) has faded back into relative obscurity, no doubt angrily.  For those who may not recall, Oklahoma State missed out on a chance to play LSU for the national title a couple years back by mere thousandths of a point in the BCS.  I don't think anyone argued that 'Bama was better, but they didn't even win their conference, and the Cowboys are feeling slighted yet again.  Both teams have two weeks to prep, but the Oklahoma St. offense is the best of the four units that will be on the field:  advantage- OSU #2.  OSU: 38--OU: 24

Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Texas showed life in the midseason after blowing out OU, but then crashed back down to earth.  Baylor was rocking and rolling until OSU and faceplanted.  Last week showed a hangover as they struggled with TCU as well.  What about this week?  Both teams have something to play for as a loss for the Cowboys catapults the winner into the Fiesta Bowl.  Baylor has had struggles of late, but they were on the road.  The home stadium in Waco may not be unstoppable, but they feed off the energy.  I like Baylor to return home and beat the Horns to wrap up no worse than second.  Stir the rumor mill for Mack Brown.  UT: 30--Baylor: 45
Hoying: I thought Texas had turned it around. I thought Mack Brown had righted the ship. Then Oklahoma State happened. We should've seen it coming after terrible terrible West Virginia took the Horns to 3OT. Yeah, yeah, you blew out a Texas Tech team that hasn't beaten a good team all year. Meanwhile, Baylor almost let the Cowboys beat them 2 weeks in a row, needing an INT on an ill-advised pass to hold off a bad TCU team. But now the Bears are back in their den. And they're ready to unleash the nation's top offense against a Texas defense that can't stop it. This one is going to be ugly. UT: 24--Baylor: 52
Schweinfurth: Texas has made a decent comeback on the Mack Brown redemption tour this year.  Then the ship started to take on water yet again.  The Longhorn's are getting Baylor at a very bad time.  Baylor can seal a BCS berth with a win hear and continue the upswing they have been on.  Unless Texas can shut down that Bear rushing attack, it's gonna be a long day...and it will be a loooong day. Baylor wins big. UT: 28--Baylor: 55
Seeberg:  Similar to the SEC title game, this game felt like a no-brainer, this time for the Baylor Bears, until their near-debacle last week, giving up 38 points to a TCU squad that might be Gary Patterson's worst since he took over the program 13 seasons ago.  Baylor should win, and should win easily, but Texas's D has largely played well the second half of the season.  Texas hangs in for Mack Brown, but Bryce Petty makes enough plays to pull away late.  UT: 21--Baylor: 37

B1G: Michigan State Spartans vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Sparty defense vs. Buckeye offense...man, I wish I had some Buckeye offense to plow my sidewalk.  In the new look NFL/NCAA, defense may win championships, but a great defense cannot stop a great offense.  Look at the TAMU/Bama game.  Bama won in a shootout...because A&M defense sucked and the stout Tide D couldn't stop Johnny Football.  Sparty will slow the Buckeyes somewhat, but you can't stop being bludgeoned repeated by Hyde and Miller.  The rushing attack of the Buckeyes and the O-line will wear down the Spartans.  On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye D was awful last week...but let's not forget about the walrus himself calling plays in East Lansing--Vrabs is coming for you Bollman!  I think the Buckeye defense will be able to stop 'Dave' enough times to earn a hard fought win and a trip to Pasadena for the title.  MSU: 20--OSU: 35
Hoying: After the Buckeyes watched Auburn's insane kick-six to topple Alabama, the team went wild for a few minutes. They knew their last uncontrollable obstacle to a national title been removed. Then Philly Brown stood up and reminded the men of the scarlet and gray that for that new #2 ranking to mean anything, it had to be cemented with one more victory. Can the Bucks take down a Sparty squad that appears to be headed to the Rose Bowl regardless of the game's outcome? Much is being made of Ohio State's meltdown on defense against the Wolverines. However, Michigan was playing out of its mind, showing glimpses of the powerful attack that steamrolled Notre Dame before tripping over its own shoelaces during the past month. The run D wasn't terrible; it was Gardner gashing us through the air that almost derailed the championship train. MSU's Connor Cook has been improving, but this is the guy who led the Spartan offense to 14 points against Purdue. Purdue. Roby, Barnett, Grant, and Brown should have little to fear this Saturday. On the other side of the ball, Carlos Hyde is still unstoppable, running for 226 yards against a pretty good Michigan run D. I don't think the Spartans are capable of shutting down both Hyde and Miller, and they might not get to either. I boldly predicted last year that as long as Braxton was on the field for the Buckeyes, they wouldn't lose another game. It's served me well so far. Buckeyes win the final Legends-Leaders battle and thus definitely secure a spot in the BCS National Championship. MSU: 16--OSU: 28
Schweinfurth: Michigan State has a defense, oh yes, Sparty has a defense.  They are not the #1 rated defense in the nation for nothing.  However, the Spartans have faced some spread offense this year and they have given up some points, see 28 points to both Nebraska and Indiana.  Ohio State's offense is much, much, much better that those two teams.  Who do you try and stop?  Keep Miller from running the ball?  He'll throw some quick screens or give to Hyde?  Stop Hyde? Now you have Miller running wild and throwing.  The Spartans want to talk "no fly zone" but they will be stressed vertically and horizontally by the physical Ohio State receivers.  Michigan State's offense matches up well with the Silver Bullets.  Yes, OSU gives up passing yards but they are very good against conventional power run teams (just look at the Wisconsin game).  That Spartan defense will be enough to keep Michigan State in the game (and maybe even a fake kick or two) but there is a Walrus calling the plays on offense.  That bucket of fish will run out quickly and Miller earns himself a trip to New York and the Bucks a trip to the second game in Pasadena.  OSU: 34--MSU:  19
Seeberg:  Last week, I had OSU winning by "only" three touchdowns and quite frankly, that high margin of victory made me a bit nervous.  However, nobody (except the hilariously partial Desmond Howard) had TTUN with 2.5 yards separating them from a win with less than a minute to go.  Devin Gardner looked like a flat-out stud, primarily because, for reasons unbeknownst to this fan sitting in the 58th row, he was put under minimal duress, even after hurting his leg in the 3rd quarter.  Our D consistently rushed four and dropped seven, and was consistently picked apart as a result.  The only conceivable reason for this decision is that TTUN's O-line has struggled mightily in recent weeks and Fickell, Vrabel & Co. must have believed they could get consistent pressure with just four rushers.  They were wrong, and if our defense sits back like that again, it may give MSU enough of an opening to spring the upset.  Gratefully, however, Connor Cook does not have the skill set of Devin Gardner, even when Gardner is limping around the pocket.  MSU's D against OSU's O is perhaps the most intriguing matchup anywhere in college football all year.  Braxton has not thrown the ball well in recent weeks, but I believe the offense will come out throwing short-to-intermediate passes to get Braxton in a rhythm and loosen up the D for Hyde to get rolling.  The D attacks, the O largely maintains its form against a tough MSU D, and OSU is 25-0 under Urban.  MSU: 17--OSU: 34

Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Louisville
Hoying: Utah State over Fresno State
Schweinfurth: SMU over UCF
Seeberg: Army over Navy 

Top 25, Rankings, Heisman Ballots--Week 15

Draper Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Missouri
5. Alabama
6. Oklahoma State
7. Michigan State
8. South Carolina
9. Baylor
10. Stanford
11. Arizona State
12. UCF
13. Oregon
14. Clemson
15. NIU
16. LSU
17. Oklahoma
18. Duke
19. Wisconsin
20. Louisville
21. UCLA
22. Cincinnati
23. Texas
24. Fresno State
25. Georgia

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)

BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. NIU
Rose: Arizona State vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State

Hoying Top 25 (with movement from last rankings)
1. Florida State (up 1)
2. Ohio State (up 1)
3. Auburn (up 2)
4. South Carolina (up 2)
5. Stanford (up 2)
6. Oklahoma State (down 2)
7. Arizona State (up 1)
8. Baylor (up 1)
9. Alabama (down 8)
10. Missouri (up 2)
11. UCF (down 1)
12. Michigan State (up 1)
13. Northern Illinois (up 3)
14. LSU (up 4)
15. Oregon (up 5)
16. Clemson (down 5)
17. Oklahoma (down 2)
18. Notre Dame (down 1)
19. UCLA (up 3)
20. Georgia (up 6 [from unranked])
21. Wisconsin (down 7)
22. Texas (up 2)
23. Louisville (no change)
24. USC (down 5)
25. Duke (no change)

Fresno State drops out (down 5)

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
3. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)

BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar: Missouri vs. UCF
Fiesta: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose: Stanford vs. Michigan State
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State

Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State
6. Missouri
7. Baylor
8. Stanford
9. South Carolina
10. Arizona State
11. Oregon
12. Clemson
13. NIU
14. LSU
15. UCF
16. UCLA
17. Oklahoma
18. Louisville
19. Duke
20. Wisconsin
21. Texas
22. Texas A&M
23. Georgia
24. Cincinnati
25. USC

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Braxton Miller (QB--OSU)

BCS Bowls
Orange: Alabama vs. UCF
Sugar: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta: Baylor vs. NIU
Rose: Michigan State vs. Stanford
National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State

Seeberg Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Oklahoma State
6. Missouri
7. South Carolina
8. Michigan State
9. Stanford
10. Baylor
11. Arizona State
12. Oregon
13. Clemson
14. Northern Illinois
15. LSU
16. UCLA
17. Wisconsin
18. UCF
19. Oklahoma
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Duke
23. Georgia
24. Iowa
25. Texas

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB- FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB- NIU)
3. Andre Williams (RB- BC)

BCS Bowls
Orange: Clemson over Baylor
Sugar:  Auburn over Northern Illinois
Fiesta:  Oklahoma State over UCF
Rose: Alabama over Arizona State (sad day, only one B1G team in the BCS)
National Championship: Florida State over Ohio State

Grading the Bucks--Week 14: M!ch!g@n

Offense: A-
The offense was certainly not the issue in the close win thanks to Mr. Miller and Mr. Hyde.  This OSU ground game is fantastic (#2 in the nation behind Army).  While we have the most dynamic backfield in the nation, the Buckeye offensive line needs more credit.  They have been absolute studs frontlined by Jack Mewhort.  The downgrade comes from the incessant need to bomb downfield and the lack of short passes.  Braxton hasn't been right passing for the last few games.  The running game has hidden the blemishes in the passing game, but it's apparent to anyone watching the games.  That first pass attempt for Miller was an easy completion and he whiffed.  I've seen him perform far better and expect more.  Don't fall into the trap of excusing it for a better defense.  Michigan's defense isn't much better than the rest of the trash the Buckeyes have faced.

Defense: D
This defense...woof.  Let's be very clear: Michigan is not good.  They have some weapons (Funyons and Gallon are studs), but Devin Gardner is not an elite QB.  The secondary has some serious issue that will likely not be fixed without another year and some new personnel.  The loss of Christian Bryant is more and more apparent with each passing game (Philly Brown had a horrible game).  Ryan Shazier's performance is being overlooked as he's been an absolute beast, but the overall performance of the defense is not near where it needs to be.  I was surprised with the lines lack of pressure throughout the game.  I know Lewan will play at the next level, but the rest of the line is awful.  I'm very nervous about the performance of this defense in a bowl game.

Special Teams: B-
No major hiccups so why the downgrade?  I think we all know why.  The fight was unacceptable as were the punches thrown.  Was it 'fair' that 2 Bucks were thrown out and only 1 Wolverine when they 'started it'?  No, but I just don't care.  This cannot happen in any game; even when emotions are this high.  Punches? Brawls? Beat them on the field.  I liked what Cameron Johnston did as usual and the coverage teams were fine.

Coaching: C-
Back to the brawl.  Marcus Hall was clearly flipping out.  Where was a coach to settle him?  Tough to be everywhere at once, but someone on the staff needed to identify the tantrum and calm the situation.  Back to the game, Braxton needs confidence and he's not getting it on deep bombs.  I believe we need more short dump off passes (screens/slants) so he trusts his arm a bit more.  There's clearly no lack of confidence in his legs, but there always needs to be a double threat.  Defensively, I was surprised there wasn't some adjustment to defend the passing game, but the return of Dileo gave the Wolverines 3 offensive threats that the Buckeyes couldn't cover.  The weak offensive line suggested we needed to blitz more in the hopes Gardner was on his back before picking us apart.

Overall: C+
Beating your rival (even by a point) is always sweet.  There are no moral victories.  Again, Michigan is BAD and there are no excuses for that defensive performance.  It appears the Buckeyes control their destiny for the Championship, but they need to step it up in preparation for an elite opponent (on both sides of the ball).

Another Terrific Week of Football, Another Fake Controversy

Let's begin by just reflecting on what a wonderfully bizarre day of football yesterday was. Rivalry games are special even without exciting finishes, but when college football's two greatest rivalries lead to two of the best last-minute thrill rides of the season, America gets a solid reminder of why college football is, without a doubt, better than the NFL.

NFL players don't sit crying in the tunnel after a triumph over their most hated, heavily favored opponent slips from their grasp. NFL games don't end with home underdogs sending their offense out on a point-after attempt when the outcome is triumph or defeat of the highest order, with no middle ground. NFL games don't come to a conclusion with the greatest coach in the game getting outfoxed on a special teams play that no one in the stadium saw coming but the upstart opposing coach his eleven men on the field. Plays like this are rare in college football as well, but what's commonplace at the college level, and what is missing from the NFL, is the level of total dedication displayed by every member of those Buckeye, Wolverine, Tide, and Tiger players.  They understood that the stakes of their games yesterday could not be higher, not because of any championship implications, but because a loss to your bitter rival consumes your soul for the next 364 days, or if you're a senior, forever.

NFL bashing aside, let's turn our focus to the implications of yesterday's clashes of the titans. On October 20th, the day the BCS rankings were released, the Buckeyes looked to be in a pretty dark place. Sure, they were 6-0 and still in the hunt for a B1G title and possibly more, but they were ranked #4 of 8 undefeated BCS conference teams, and there was no guarantee that any of the 4 lower teams wouldn't jump them during their quest for #2. Shortly before the rankings were released, I wrote a piece assuring Buckeye Nation (and Bear Nation and Hurricane Nation etc.) that there was nothing to fear; the BCS rankings are always muddled in October but they almost always sort themselves out to the two deserving teams by season's end. Sure enough, 6 of the 8 undefeated BCS teams lost, leaving the path open to a neat and tidy matchup of the only two unbeatens. This was why the BCS was developed: to ensure that if there were two undefeated teams that wouldn't get to play each other because of existing bowl tie-ins, they'd get a chance to have it out on the field to determine who the real national champion was.

During the 15 years of the BCS, this has only occurred 4 times (1999, 2002, 2005, 2010). Among the years of multiple-BCS-undefeateds controversy (2004, 2009), and lesser squabbles among 1-loss teams (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012) or two-loss teams (2007), these 4 matchups were the opportunities for the BCS to pat itself on the back for a job well done. No controversy, no arguments, no disputing who the real national champion was once the bowl games were played.

So the BCS has a chance to get the correct result in its last hurrah, right? That's what I thought after Auburn's unconventional kick return against Alabama. But imagine my surprise when I woke up to see the most bizarre comments spewed all over my Twitter feed and the Worldwide Leader's website. They boiled down to some version of "Well, Michigan State will probably beat Ohio State and end this controversy anyway."

Huh?

Regardless of whether Sparty will or won't win on Saturday (I don't think they will, come back later this week for our picks), what is this controversy of which people speak, and why does a Michigan State win resolve it? A little deeper digging revealed that the dispute was whether an undefeated Ohio State or a 1-loss Auburn should go to the BCS National Championship to face Florida State.

What?

Before we have that debate, it's important to note all the assumptions implicit in such a farce, and how totally without merit they are.

Assumption #1: Florida State obviously deserves to be #1 (assuming a win over Duke).
Counter: Why? Let's take a look at who's been #1 when the 2 vs. 3 arguments have reared their ugly heads.
1998: #1 Tennessee - only undefeated BCS team
1999: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2000: #1 Oklahoma - only undefeated BCS team
2001: #1 Miami - only undefeated BCS team
2002: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2003: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2004: #1 USC - won share of 2003 title, ranked #1 preseason and never fell from that spot
2005: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2006: #1 Ohio State - only undefeated BCS team
2007: #1 Ohio State - only 1-loss or fewer BCS team
2008: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2009: No real 2 vs. 3 dispute (sorry Cincinnati)
2010: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2011: #1 LSU - only undefeated BCS team
2012: #1 Notre Dame - only undefeated BCS team

So we see that when there's a dispute over who should be #2, the only time the conflict doesn't extend to the #1 team as well is when the #1 team has had fewer losses than any other BCS team. Except 2004. That season had a few wrinkles pertinent to this analysis.* USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated. USC got the nod for the Orange Bowl because USC was fresh off an AP-championship season and spent the season at #1 wire-to-wire.

Given what we observe from the history of the BCS, why does Florida State get a free pass at #1? They're not alone at 12-0: Ohio State is right there with them. They weren't preseason #1; they were preseason #12, far behind #2 Ohio State. Maybe they're getting the benefit of the doubt from their prior BCS history:

Florida State:
1998 L vs. Tennessee
1999 W vs. Virginia Tech (National Champions)
2000 L vs. Oklahoma
2002 L vs. Georgia
2003 L vs. Miami
2005 L vs. Penn State
2012 W vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio State:
1998 W vs. Texas A&M
2002 W vs. Miami (National Champions)
2003 W vs. Kansas State
2005 W vs. Notre Dame
2006 L vs. Florida
2007 L vs. LSU
2008 L vs. Texas
2009 W vs. Oregon
2010 W vs. Arkansas

Well...no help here, unless people are really impressed by that win over a MAC team. The pundits must be focusing on what Florida State has done this season only (good for them).

Let's take a look at each team's strength of schedule.

Florida State opponents' records: 61-60
Ohio State opponents' records: 62-59

Uh...hmm...that doesn't appear to help matters. Maybe if we look at wins over teams with winning records.

Florida State: @Clemson (10-2), vs. Miami (9-3), @Boston College (7-5), vs. Maryland (7-5)
Ohio State: vs. Wisconsin (9-3), vs. Iowa (8-4), @Michigan (7-5), vs. Penn State (7-5), vs. San Diego State (7-5), vs. Buffalo (8-4)

Erm...no answers there either, particularly when you consider that Ohio State faces Michigan State (11-1) in their final game while Florida State faces Duke (10-2), and NO ONE is suggesting that the Bucks have any hope of jumping the Noles after next weekend.

Let's try margin of victory.

Florida State: +28, +55, +48, +14, +63, +37, +32, +27, +56, +56, +66, +30.  Average: 42.2
Ohio State: +20, +35, +18, +76, +7, +10, +10, +49, +56, +25, +28, +1.  Average: 23.5

Mystery solved. If you want to be untouchable at #1, beat your mediocre-to-good opponents by more than your fellow undefeated competitor.

Assumption #2: It's ok for a 1-loss BCS conference team to finish ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team.
Counter: Show me the precedent. In 15 years of the BCS we've had at least 1 BCS conference team finish undefeated 12 times. WITHOUT EXCEPTION, these teams have finished ahead of every team with a loss, even though during all 12 of these seasons, there has been at least one 1-loss BCS team available. Obviously this doesn't mean that a 1-loss team finishing higher can't happen, but it does create quite the suffocating presumption to overcome.

Assumption #3: The SEC champion is without question the most deserving 1-loss team available.
Counter: I agree that the body of work of the SEC champion will be stronger than any other 1-loss team. However, the gap is not particularly wide, especially if Missouri beats Auburn. Missouri would have a great win over Auburn, and some good wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Is this really that much better than Oklahoma State's potential win list of Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas? Or Michigan State's potential win list of Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota? Again, I think Missouri would have the better claim, but to state that such a comparison would be less controversial than the false one brewing between Ohio State and Auburn/Missouri makes no sense unless you accept implicitly that...

Assumption #4: The SEC is light-years ahead of any other conference.
Counter: This is the argument you're going to hear pounded into your skull for the next 7 days. You've heard it ever since Urban Meyer's Florida beat Jim Tressel's Ohio State, and the rabid southerners and other such partisan hacks aren't going to abandon it now. Obviously there's no denying that an SEC member has won the last 7 BCS national championships and 9 BCS titles out of 15 total. But this doesn't necessarily say anything about the league itself; it could be far and away the best, or it could be just top-heavy. To know more, we have to look at the SEC's performance top-to-bottom against other conferences.

In the BCS Era
SEC vs. Pac-12 in regular season: 12-12
SEC vs. Pac-12 in bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 in regular season: 6-11
SEC vs. Big 12 in bowl games: 22-8
SEC vs. ACC in regular season: 47-37
SEC vs. ACC in bowl games: 17-10
SEC vs. Big Ten in regular season: 8-5
SEC vs. Big Ten in bowl games: 21-19
SEC vs. Big East in regular season: 16-18
SEC vs. Big East in bowl games: 4-9

Good? Yes. Dominant? Not so clear. Other than dominating the Big 12 in bowl games and the ACC in general, and getting beat by the Big East of all conferences, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from this, particularly when we consider that all of the SEC's bowl games take place within the conference's geographic footprint, far from the territory of the Big Ten, the Big 12, or where the Big East was located during the BCS era.

On a side note, which team will leave the BCS era with the most BCS bowl wins? It's a tie between USC (who's not going to a BCS bowl this year) and Ohio State, whose last BCS win came at the hands of...Arkansas from the SEC, making Ohio State 1-2 against the SEC in BCS games. And yes, the Sugar Bowl win was vacated because of the tattoo scandal, but does anyone really think Ohio State's rule-breaking behavior led to them gaining a competitive advantage in that game? Put another way, if Ohio State players weren't getting the occasional free tattoo, would they still have beaten Arkansas to cap a 12-1 season?

On another side note, one of the teams tied for most BCS losses is Florida State, but you won't hear about their BCS struggles this week, even though the Noles have never beaten a Big Ten or an SEC team in a BCS bowl (0-3).

Whoopty-Doo! What does it all mean, Basil?

The assumptions necessary to even have a debate about Ohio State falling below #2 are so flawed that the debate itself is nonsensical. Only the most blinded, unabashed SEC homer would dare to make a case to leave an undefeated Ohio State out of the national championship game at this point. While SEC teams have made many trips to many BCS bowls and Alabama, Florida, and LSU have had great success there, Auburn cannot rely on past history (2 BCS appearances in 15 years), nor can Missouri (0 BCS appearances in 15 years) to rush past an Ohio State team (or, for that matter, a Florida State team) that played a big-boy schedule, in a big-boy conference, and did not lose a game. The Bucks and the Noles have earned their way to the title game before, and with two victories on Saturday, they'll do it again, much to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of all in SECSPN country.

*Remember the 2004 season mentioned earlier? Oklahoma went to the title game ahead of undefeated Auburn because they were the preseason #2 and had also occupied the #2 spot all season long, even though Oklahoma had lost the BCS Championship game to an SEC team, LSU, at the end of the previous season. In other words, an SEC team winning the prior season's national championship did not give the league the benefit of the doubt needed for an undefeated Auburn to jump an undefeated Oklahoma. How much more ridiculous would it be for a 1-loss team to jump an undefeated preseason #2 Ohio State?

In case you're still wavering about the merits of Auburn or Missouri vis-a-vis Florida State and Ohio State, here are your nails in the coffin (check out Massey Ratings' Game Graph Connecting Path to do this yourself).

Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.

Ohio State beat Penn State
who beat Syracuse
who beat Maryland
who beat West Virginia
who beat Oklahoma State
who beat Mississippi State
who beat Mississippi
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.

Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.

Ohio State beat Wisconsin
who beat BYU
who beat Georgia Tech
who beat Duke
who beat Miami
who beat Florida
who beat Tennessee
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.

"Big deal," you might say, "you can do this with almost any two teams if you want."

Almost.

Not Ohio State or Florida State.

Because they haven't lost.

On to 13-0 and a place in the final BCS National Championship in Pasadena.