Thursday, September 04, 2014

Week 2 - B1G Chances for Redemption

Standings
1) Schweinfurth     3-1    (1-0 upset)
1) Draper                3-1    (1-0 upset---WEAK)
1) Hoying               3-1    (0-1 upset)

1) Seeberg              3-1    (0-1 upset- I should get .5 for mine, FCS team loses by 1 b/c of miraculous 2 TD comeback?? C'MON MAN!)

The B1G actually had a pretty decent week 1, going 12-2 with Ohio State, Penn State, and Rutgers scoring decent road wins, and no team falling flat on its face against a garbage opponent. However, all anyone will remember is Wisconsin's 2nd-half collapse against LSU, so it's up to the conference to notch a win against a top-level opponent to save face. Fortunately, three such opportunities present themselves in week 2.

Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: This is a litmus test for both teams.  Did MSU take a step back from the magical 2013? Is Oregon the juggernaut on offense they always claim to be?  I'm expecting a pretty good game here in which the Spartans lay it all on the line...but fall just short in Autzen.  The losses in MSU's secondary are just too much when going up against Marcus Mariota.  I know he's not an exceptional passer, but with all the weapons on the ground, that pulls bodies out of pass protection.  MSU looks good, but Oregon is no Jacksonville State (and MSU is no South Dakota).  MSU: 24--Ore: 27
Hoying: Welcome to Part II of the B1G vs. Pac-12 Challenge. After B1G linchpin Rutgers dispatched Washington State last week, the stakes skyrocket in this showdown of presumptive conference favorites. 
Neither team will be out of the playoff hunt after a loss, but the loser will have to take care not to drop a conference game as well. Oregon is plenty flashy as always, rolling up 62 points against South Dakota, but the Ducks usually struggle against solid-tackling, defensive-minded squads (see 2011 LSU, 2010 Auburn, 2009 Ohio State and Boise State). MSU QB Connor Cook will have to continue his upward trend, but the Spartans should be bursting with confidence after their victory over last year's Pac-12 champ, Stanford, in the Rose Bowl. Remember, the Spartans need this win so that it's even more embarrassing when they lose to Indiana or Wyoming or whoever. MSU: 31--Ore: 27
Schweinfurth: Boy does the B1G need some love after Wisconsin choked (and that is putting it kindly).  Everyone is talking about Michigan State's defense, and for good measure.  They held Braxton and El Guapo in check for most of the B1G Championship Game and looked impressive doing it.  Oregon runs a similar type of spread; run to set up the pass, short passing game, and a mobile and explosive QB.  The difference here is that Mariota is a better passer than Miller.  MSU challenged Braxton to throw across the middle of the field and he couldn't do it.  Mariota can.  This will likely be the Spartans' gameplan against a fast spread team like the Ducks.  Combine that with the loss of Dennard and you have one MSU loss.  Sorry Sparty, I just can't buy in.  Prove me wrong.  MSU: 24--Ore: 35
Seeberg:  Time to put on the big boy pants and see who's who.  MSU's offense is likely to be much improved, though we learned next to nothing about them against the South Carolina Jacksonville State Gamecocks (seriously?  There are TWO Gamecock mascots?  Still not as bad as a community college in Arizona, the Scottsdale Community College Fighting Artichokes- I kid you not).  Likewise, we learned nothing about Oregon's supposedly vaunted offense against the likes of South Dakota.  I get the sense that MSU cannot let Oregon get rolling early or it could get ugly, much like Seabiscuit retraining to break first in his match race against War Admiral (look it up).  Bottom line?  The two strongest units on the field will be Oregon's O and MSU's D, and sadly I trust Oregon's O a bit more.  Let the B1G bashing commence.  MSU: 20--Ore: 28

Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Does the winner of this game get the ever present 'They're back!' label?  Seems to be a recurring tradition between these two historical juggernauts that just haven't lived up to consistent expectations in the recent past.  The Irish are sporting their revamped Everett Gholston (apparently, he's smart now!), but have serious questions from the academic issues that hit near the end of the offseason.  Michigan is on cloud nine after evening their record with the powerhouse Mountaineers, and I think they keep it going.  Gardner and Devin Funyons will be too much for the Domers to contain on offense.  They're BACK! (until next week) UM: 31--ND: 24
Hoying: Say it ain't so! Notre Dame's fifth most important rivalry is about to go on hiatus for the fifth time. Both of these historically superlative but contemporarily mediocre programs are missing major offensive performers from last season, the Wolverines losing RB Fitz Toussaint and the Irish losing QB Tommy Rees. Then again, neither player was actually any good, so don't expect these units to break stride from where they ended last year. Michigan has been in a total nosedive since firing Lloyd Carr 7 years ago, but since it's still September, a win is within the realm of possibility. Notre Dame is still missing a few players for being too dumb to play college football, but there's hope: QB Everett Golson has finally found his way back onto campus after a similar problem last season. Too bad he won't do well enough to overcome the Gardner & Co. sporadic juggernaut. UM: 38--ND: 24

Schweinfurth: This is a rivalry game that I am sad to see get put off by conference politics.  And by sad I mean I just like to watch both teams bumble all over the field.  Yes, Everett Golson is back.  Yes, Devin Gardner is back.  To acknowledge that this game will blow anyone's doors off would insinuate that both QBs were competent in the first place.  I really don't care who wins this game, but I think scUM's defense is better, but not by much.  This game will be close as always.  UM: 24--ND: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the annual "can they just play to a hideously contested 3-3 tie because I despise both teams?" game.  Both dispatched lousy opponents with ease last week, but TTUN's offense was surprisingly, well, surprising, in that the play-calling was marginally less predictable than usual.  Assuming there are more wrinkles reserved for their first real game, I expect UM to meet little resistance offensively en route to a double-digit win, thereby gratefully removing the perenially overrated Irish from the rankings, silencing the echoes yet again.  UM: 34--ND: 20

USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: I don't know what to think about these Pac 12 foes.  Both teams crushed vastly inferior opponents last week but we really have no clue what to expect in an actual game.  Sark has the SC history with him, but the roster isn't quite like the Leinhart and Bush days.  I think the Trojans are on an upswing, but this is a doozy of a game on the road this early.  Stanford has a nice consistent product that doesn't have the flash, but should come up with the meat of the sandwich to come out with a win.  Blue collar boys slow down the flash...just enough. USC: 24--Stan: 27
Hoying: Now that the Lane Kiffin dumpster fire in Los Angeles has been extinguished, the Trojans are dreaming of regaining their Pac-12 supremacy status. Unfortunately, the conference isn't the one-team laugher it was back in the 2000's, and the Cardinal aren't keen to see their Rose Bowl streak ended at 2. Both teams feature great quarterbacks and untested running backs, most notably Stanford sophomore RB Barry Sanders, Jr. I'm tempted to give Stanford a slight edge due to the home field advantage, but that would require some fans to actually show up. This one will come down to whether the Cardinal play "Stanford football." I'm guessing...no. USC: 28--Stan: 27
Schweinfurth:  I really don't know much about these teams, and honestly, haven't paid much attention other than the RB drama at SC.  USC is still breaking in a new offense and that Stanford D is usually pretty nasty.  Stanford with a senior QB at home? Yup, the Cardinal move on.  USC: 17--Stan: 28

Seeberg:  I...I just don't know.  This is a flip of the coin for me.  It's strength on strength similar to MSU's D against Oregon's offense (USC O vs. Stanford D).  I would like to think the score will stay in the 20s and Stanford has the advantage.  Then again, USC proved it can win a low scoring game against the Cardinal, eking out a 20-17 win just last year.  Stanford appears a bit less 1-dimensional this year however, trusting their senior QB to throw to people other than the tight ends.  They'll need a play or two from the wideouts, and they'll get just enough to get some payback on the Trojans.  Dance ugly tree, dance.  USC: 20--Stan: 24

Virginia Tech Hokies @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Bucks look a little iffy out of the gate but settled down quickly.  I really like what I saw out of Barrett when the kid gloves were removed, but the O-Line is a concern.  With Bud Foster's defense bringing the lunch pail, the Bucks need to get to work. I actually think this game sets up nicely for a strong Buckeye win.  VT is a very traditional football team and the Bucks are designed to take on a traditional football team.  Add in the lights in the Shoe, and it's a recipe for a coming out party.  Dontre takes one to the house and the defense steps up their game.  Bucks roll.  VT: 17--OSU: 38
Hoying: I'm not sure what to make of this Virginia Tech team. Like the Buckeyes, they're breaking in new starters at QB and RB. However, the Bucks are a bit more battle-tested after taking Navy's best shot in Baltimore. Were this a road game, I'd be extremely nervous, but Barrett and (insert Buckeye RB here) should get a nice boost from the home atmosphere. This game should give us some opportunities to finally see if the Buckeye D has made any strides in the offseason (or in the last week). Expect some mistakes on both sides of the ball, but Ohio State should squeak out a close win and move on to next week's breather against Kent State. VT: 24--OSU: 27 (OT)
Schweinfurth: I am sooooooo glad to be done with Navy.  I respect our troops, but as Draper likes to say, "Why do you ever schedule a service academy?!"  We really didn't learn much about the Bucks revamped defense, and that may be a good thing.  VaTech has no film to go on with regards to the Silver Bullets and that is a big advantage.  What concerns me is that offensive line.  They now have one game under their belt.  The talent is there, the communication just needs to be fixed and this unit will start providing better protection.  I think J.T. has earned the right to throw down field a bit more.  Urban and Herman need to try and take the top of that defense off if they want to run the ball against a very well coached Bud Foster defense.  I also think we see more Curtis Samuel, that dude is gonna be a good one.  I can really see this game playing out much like the Navy game; close going into the 4th quarter and then the talent gap shows up.  VT: 20--OSU: 35

Seeberg:  This game is likely the Bucks' biggest challenge until a late October trip to Happy Valley.  It is that fact that buoys my middling confidence in the Buckeyes.  D-line was gashed too often for a unit that was supposed to be our strength on that side of the ball, but some second-half adjustments helped.  Barrett looked pretty impressive, showing nice touch on many throws.  When pressured, however, he took too many sacks that seemed preventable, and of course the one horrible INT near the goal line was painfully foreseeable.  Freshman mistakes will happen, but you can be sure VT will be bringing the heat against that unproven line.  However, that unproven line may have been lackluster in the pass game, but it was opening some pretty consistent holes in the run game, and a heavy dose of Elliot, Wilson and Co. is in order.  The Bucks will use the crowd, get up early, and VT is not much more built to come from behind than Navy was.  VT: 16--OSU: 27  

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa State over Kansas State
Hoying: San Diego State over North Carolina

Schweinfurth: Western Kentucky over Illinois
Seeberg:  Middle Tennessee over Minnesota

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