Saturday, August 30, 2014

Preseason Predictions

Conference Champions
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU, C: Miami, Champ: FSU

B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Homer pick but I'm going for gel before East Lansing)
Hoying: E: MSU, W: Iowa, Champ: MSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Same as Draper, but you can't overlook the Spartans losses on D)
Seeberg:  E: MSU, W: Wisconsin, Champ: MSU

Big 12
Draper: Oklahoma 
Hoying: Baylor
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma
Seeberg: Oklahoma (for lack of a better option)

Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Stanford (hopeful- I hate Oregon) S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA

SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper:  E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Hoying: E: UGA, W: LSU, Champ: UGA
Schweinfurth: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: UGA
Seeberg: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama 

Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, Bama, OSU, UCLA
Hoying: FSU, UGA, MSU, Baylor
Schweinfurth: FSU, UGA, OSU, Oregon
Seeberg: UCLA, FSU, MSU, Bama

Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Jameis Winston
2) Brett Hundley
3) Todd Gurley
Dark Horse: JT Barrett (redshirt freshman #3?) 
  
 Hoying
1) Jameis Winston
2) Bryce Petty
3) Marcus Mariota
Dark Horse: Devin Gardner

Schweinfurth
1) Todd Durley
2) Jameis Winston
3) Trevor Knight
Dark Horse: Keenan Williams

Seeberg
1) Todd Gurley
2) Brett Hundley
3) Jameis Winston
Dark Horse: Nick Marshall

Friday, August 29, 2014

Buckeyes: Better Off With Braxton Hurt?

Entering a new season, a team's expectations are built mostly on last year's performance and the quality of the returning players. For example, following an undefeated 2012 campaign, expectations for Ohio State in 2013 were national championship or bust. While the 2012 Buckeyes weren't exactly dominant, the team returned the entire offense minus one offensive lineman and a wide receiver. While the defense suffered heavy losses to the line and the linebackers, the depth of the line and the return of star LB Ryan Shazier seemed to be enough to keep the ship steady. However, despite this wealth of talent and experience, the defense fizzled down the stretch and the season ended in supremely disappointing fashion.

The end of the 2013 season saw the departure of
Our star senior running back, Carlos Hyde
4 of 5 OL starters
Our ultra-dependable backup QB, Kenny Guiton
Reliable WR Philly Brown
The only excellent linebacker in a crew of scrubs, Ryan Shazier
3 of 4 DB starters
Our 4-year starting kicker, Drew Basil

All that remained was the excellent defensive line, a mediocre squad of receivers, and our record-setting QB Braxton Miller, who the coaches repeatedly described as a vastly improved passer. Championship expectations remained high, especially given the transition from a two-team to four-team championship playoff, but the optimism was a bit more cautious.

You know what happened next. Bye bye, Braxton; hello, J. T. Barrett. The 2014 championship hopes now appear all but dashed, unless Barrett turns out to be the next Jameis Winston (not even freshman Johnny Heisman could lead A&M to even a conference title, let alone a shot at the crystal football). However, given the question marks surrounding this year's men of the Scarlet and Gray, might the Buckeyes be better off in the long run with Braxton's senior campaign being deferred to 2015?

Let's have a look at the depth chart for this year. With so many new faces, it's tough to know who'll pan out and who'll flame out, but let's assume Urban knows what he's doing: the starters are the best players available and they'll continue to improve.

OFFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:

Offensive Line
The line returns only one starter from 2013, junior LT Taylor Decker. This crew will need some time to jell and may take a step back from last year's excellent squad. Looking forward, the offensive line has only one definite senior starter, RT Darryl Baldwin. Additionally, seniors might start at C and LG. But the two-deep for the line includes only these three seniors, which means the line is likely to largely remain intact next year, and will probably improve.

Wide Receivers
Here's where the turnover will hit hardest. All our starting receivers, including TE Jeff Heuerman, are seniors. It's not a stellar group (the Buckeyes haven't had a great receiver since Sanzenbacher), but the 2015 team will have to make sure their receivers are ready to be on the same page with Braxton.

Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Dontre Wilson are plenty young, and another year of experience will make them all the more dangerous in 2015. We'll lose Rod Smith, but if he was going to make some noise, he'd have done so already.

Quarterback
Remember how nice it was to have a backup on whom we could rely to preserve any victory if Braxton went down? As this offseason showed, we'll need a competent backup to carry us forward whenever Braxton's senior campaign begins. I'd feel much better if that backup, either Barrett or Jones, had a year of experience under his belt, and this season is a perfect opportunity.


DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:

Defensive Line
Good news: other than the loss of Joel Hale (to the offensive line?!?) this outstanding crew is still intact. Better news: barring any early exits, the 2015 starting D line will lose only Michael Bennett (technically, senior Steve Miller is starting at Viper, but junior Noah Spence should be back to take his place soon). Don't expect any steps backward from this squad in the near future.

Linebackers
Ryan Shazier is gone, which is essentially equivalent to a full flush of the position. No one else in last year's corps was any good, but they'll have a chance to prove themselves anew under new co-DC Chris Ash. Fortunately, only one LB in the two-deep, captain Curtis Grant, will be gone next year, so expect this group to improve.

Defensive Backs
These guys sucked pretty bad last year, but their backups were even worse, and three of last year's starters (Bradley Roby, C. J. Barnett, Christian Bryant) are now gone. The good news is that 2015 will bring the departure of only Doran Grant, so these guys have another two years to channel their inner Silver Bullets.


SPECIAL TEAMS
Replacing a four-year kicker isn't easy, but Ohio State thinks they have an answer in freshman Sean Neurnberger. Again, he's a freshman, so look for him to improve over time. Also, last year's most undervalued Buckeye, P Cameron Johnston, is plenty young, so expect him to be an all-star by the time 2015 rolls around. Meanwhile, young speedsters Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall will be terrorizing oppenents' kicking and punting games for the foreseeable future.


BOTTOM LINE
The depth chart is notably light on senior leadership, even more so following the loss of Braxton. While it's tough to accept anything less than undefeated championship seasons at OSU, the thought of Braxton using  another year to improve and get healthy and retaking the reins of an adversity-toughened 2015 squad sends chills down my spine. With Braxton's return, the 2015 Buckeyes could be the most talented and complete squad since 2006, or possibly of all time, if we can discover greatness among our stable of running backs and turn a corner in the secondary.

So grit your teeth, Buckeye Nation, and prepare for what should be an exciting 2014. Don't cry for Braxton or the Buckeyes. If Barrett turns out to be terrific, this team could still end up in Pasadena. If he experiences some growing pains, remember that the best is yet to come for Urban and the Bucks.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Week 1 - PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome to the 2014-15 season edition of Let's Go Bucks! Now that D-1A football has entered the PLAYOFF ERA, the expert analyses of your four favorite football forecasters should be more exciting and less controversial than ever. Join us every week to learn in advance precisely how the SEC's top four teams will position themselves for a shot at the national championship.

Here are the week's four top matchups, based on what what a few coaches and writers think about the quality of teams that they've never seen play.

Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Sigh....SEC. SEC.  These teams are ok, but they won't be as good as last year's installment.  Manziel and Clowney would have made this an epic matchup, but I can't really think of anyone on either of these teams.  Even though the Cocks generally weak in the early season, I'll give them the edge at home.  The SEC defenses have been a shadow the past few years but A&M has just been terrible.  Let's kick this season off with a little SEC fizzle.  TAMU: 24--SoCar: 41
Hoying: Why do teams allow conference games to be scheduled for week 1? Exiting the offseason, a team's growing pains may hamper it even against a garbage-level opponent. Ask Michigan. Imagine having to find your footing against Sumlin's offense or Spurrier's defense...Both teams enter the season with new faces at quarterback, after the departures of Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw (both to the Browns). The Cocks are missing our favorite Wolverine decapitator, Jadeveon Clowney, but they retain the advantage, seeing as how the Aggies were missing an entire defense last season and aren't likely to have instantly righted the ship. The Ol' Ball Coach knows offense, and without Johnny Clipboard to bail out the awful awful A&M defense, South Carolina should start their playoff push on a high note. TAMU: 20--SCar: 38
Schweinfurth: Well, this game officially kicks off the college football season.  I really think this game will be a showcase of what the SEC will be all about this year: defense-dominated.  Look, all of the "big name" SEC quarterbacks are gone and it's gonna show.  So before we get into the whole "SEC is all about defense" conversation, just remember ALL OF THE QBS ARE NEW!!!! Oh yea, this game? South Carolina's gonna win.  TAMU: 13--SCAR: 31
Seeberg:  This is a battle of who-can-manage-to-still-function-after-losing-a-crapton-of-talent game.  The Gamecocks are without Clowney and 4th string Browns quarterback Connor Shaw.  Similarly, TAMU has lost 5th string Browns quarterback Johnny Money-Signing, Bird-Slinging Manziel (ok, I know he's actually the Browns' backup, but really, does it matter?).  A&M also lost Mike Evans, and still has a lackluster D, so the cupboard is at least a lot less bare in Columbia.  TAMU: 17--SCar: 34


Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper:  I remember last year when Clemson was a pretty good football team...and then this year they're...a team.  UGA has no Aaron Murray, but Todd Gurley is a beast who, in my opinion, is the most likely non-QB Heisman contender. Last year, Clemson rode the backs of Watkins and Boyd to an explosive offense, but they're gone.  Bulldogs start strong and wait until midseason to crap out.  Clem: 17--UGA: 38
Hoying: Answer: Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Roderick McDowell, Martavis Bryant. Question: who are (1) the top four skill position players on the 2013 Clemson team, and (2) four players no longer playing for the Tigers? Yup, that buzzsaw that shredded through an overrated Georgia squad and a depleted-though-already-awful Buckeye defense has been de-toothed. Meanwhile the Gurleyest man in college football is all healed up and ready for revenge. The loss of Georgia QB Aaron Murray will hurt, but the wounds won't show in this mismatch. Hey Bulldog! Clem: 17--UGA: 31
Schweinfurth: Clemson lost their offense last year with Boyd and Watkins gone (I still have nightmares of Watkins catching screen passes).  Georgia get's Todd Gurley back and he is a load.  I really expect Gurley to literally carry the load for the Bulldogs all year and could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate.  Clem: 10--UGA--24
Seeberg:  Seemingly, Georgia has been on the precipice for quite some time.  This year wouldn't seem to be the year they get over the hump as Aaron Murray- who appeared to be UGA's QB about as long as the rest of the world seemed to think Aaron Craft was the Buckeyes' point guard- is finally gone.  However, assuming Todd Gurley can make it through at least one game healthy, he will see the ball almost as much as Georgia's quarterback.  Meanwhile, Clemson is far from the offensive juggernaut that burned through much of their schedule last year.  It's gonna be a good day, Tater.  Clem: 13--UGA: 28


Wisconsin Badgers vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper:  LSU is a nice consistent program that everyone's favorite grass-eating lovable doofus keeps at the forefront.  The Badgers look to have a nice season in the wide open B1G West but they can't figure out who to start at QB.  This could get ugly and start the SEC over B1G nonsense early.  Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of old, and LSU full of studs.  Could get ugly early on the Bayou.  Wisc: 13--LSU: 30 
Hoying: Once again, our beloved conference gets a chance to make a B1G statement against an SEC opponent to kick off the season. If there's one team on which we can rely to carry the flag in a marquee out-of-conference showdown, it's the Badgers. Stop laughing. I mean it, cut it out! They could win! Really! Wisc: 10--LSU: 27
Schweinfurth: For once I want to see the B1G give a big, Johnny Football-esque finger to the SEC.  Unfortunately, I don't think Wisconsin will be the team to do it.  Yes, Melvin Gordon is a good player, but he was best with White in the backfield and running the fly sweep.  This will be a good game but Wiscy falls just short. Wisc: 14--LSU: 17
Seeberg:  Alright, let's be clear, I despise Wisconsin...darn near as much as TTUN.  The Badgers became suddenly relevant in the two most glamorous college sports (football, men's basketball) in the late 90's and they have been insufferable ever since.  Still, I picked them to get to the Final Four this past March, thus salvaging a rough bracket year, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see them come out of the oh-so-loaded B1G west (this realignment is just atrocious- post proving this point coming next week).  Even further, I would still like to see them force-feed Les Miles some freshly fertilized grass.  LSU may have trouble scoring with Mettenberger and their top 2 wideouts gone from a season ago.  Unfortunately, LSU hasn't lost much from a solid D and are likely to stifle a Wisconsin team that has named Tanner McEvoy (man that is a boy-band sounding name if I've ever heard one) over previous starter Joel I-only-throw-to-Abbrederis Stave.  If McEvoy has the goods, this may be a huge upset, particularly for ESPN after just launching the SEC Network.  Sadly, I don't see that happening.  Wisc: 13--LSU: 24


THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Navy Midshipmen
Draper: Oh Braxton, wherefore art thou Braxton.  The Glass QB went down earlier than expected this year which has put the pundits on alert.  You don't lose an athlete of Braxton's caliber (not to mention Carlos Hyde) and get better, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.  This team is still full of talent and the schedule is total garbage.  I feel that Ezekiel Elliot will tote the rock admirably and J. T. Barrett will step in just fine (the last 2 years saw a redshirt freshman win the Heisman so.........  Navy is perhaps the worst team anyone can schedule in the 'preseason'.  They run a gimmick offense and cutblock like crazy.  That being said, OSU's defensive weakness was the passing game...and the Midshipmen can't pass.  This should be a solid drubbing that allows JT to get his feet wet.  The Bucks will be just fine this year.  OSU: 48--Navy: 10
Hoying: After an awful end to a promising season, the Bucks are finally back and ready to see if a new face can fill the void left by the unfortunate departure of our best offensive player. Sophomore running back Ezekiel Elliott did average 8.7 ypc last year, but most of that was garbage time against garbage teams...what?...you want me to talk about the QB situation? Very well...regardless of what Braxton's mind-bogglingly stupid haters continue to aver, the Buckeyes will almost undoubtedly suffer a giant step backward at quarterback after the injury to arguably the greatest athlete ever to take snaps under center at Ohio State. Make no mistake, J. T. Barrett is ready to play football (and hopefully play school too, unlike backup Cardale Jones), and he'll get a nice soft test from a middling Midshipmen defense. But a freshman is a freshman, and a QB's first year under center is usually a rough one (see 2004 Troy Smith, 2008 Terrelle Pryor, 2011 Braxton Miller). Let's hope the senior receivers are finally ready to step up. On the other side of the ball, we won't learn much this week about the development of last year's sieve of a defense. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds can throw, I guess, but that's not really Navy's style. Expect big plays from the experienced and talented Buckeye D line, and look for indications that Chris Ash is smart enough to plan for misdirection plays. If not, expect Michigan to hang 40 on us again at season's end. OSU: 31--Navy: 16
Schweinfurth: For the record, I'm writing this while watching the previous OSU/Navy game.  My goodness, STOP THE QB FOLLOW!!!  But I digress.  The Buckeyes have so many question marks coming into this season and an even bigger question mark at the QB position.  There are weapons and skill all over the field for the Bucks and I am excited to see what Wilson, Elliot, and company can do.  I expect a lot more passing but fewer big plays.  I am very nervous about the defense.  I mean, they can't get any worse than last year right? RIGHT?!?  Navy will move the ball, that rushing attack is just too good, but I don't foresee may trips into the endzone.  This one won't tell much about the "improved" pass defense but the Bucks should be able to get some young pups valuable experience.  OSU: 38--Navy: 20
Seeberg:  
I hate to admit it, but I am somewhat concerned about this game.  As pointed out above, Navy's old-school attack is a nightmare to plan for at any point in the season.  Our D should be very stout up front, but the back seven?  No Shazier, no Roby, no Barnett, no Bryant, that means lots of question marks.  Obviously the offense suffered an enormous setback with Braxton's injury (2015 Heisman campaign already in full swing).  The receivers are another big unknown, so I expect a game plan Woody Hayes would be proud of...except a lot of the runs will be around end instead of up the middle.  I'll be high up in the Ravens *gag* stadium on the 50, hoping to see our new offensive line gel together and open up some holes for Elliot, Barrett and Co.  It may not be pretty, but 1-0 is 1-0.  OSU: 34--Navy: 20



Upset Special
Draper: Penn State over UCF (I know, weak)
Hoying: Appalachian State over Michigan
Schweinfurth: North Dakota St. over Iowa State
Seeberg:  Georgia Southern over NC State