Friday, October 10, 2014

Week 7 - From SEC West Supremacy to a B1G East Race to the Bottom

Standings
1) Draper               20-9    (3-3 upset)
2) Schweinfurth     18-11    (3-3 upset)
2) Hoying               18-11    (3-3 upset)
2) Seeberg              18-11    (0-6 upset) Seriously, you picked Michigan?  HEY...they covered, sheesh.

Now that the dust has settled on a wild week 6, the madness ramps up again with another week of SEC West matchups, a battle of Lone Star undefeateds out in the Big 12, and another bye week for our beloved Bucks in this long playoff chase.

Oh, and Penn State travels to Michigan with the inside track to last place in the B1G East on the line, but you'll have to read about that elsewhere.

Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Draper: I've been big on Mississippi State all year and down on Auburn.  While the Tigers have been very impressive, their resume is fairly spartan.  MSU's win at LSU is becoming less and less impressive, but Dak Prescott is having a fantastic year (with Gurley and Jameis all but eliminated by missing a game, he's leading the Heisman race by a fairly sizable margin).  I remember in the early 2000s when Starkville was a place to be feared and I think it's coming to that again.  I don't think MSU is an all-timer of a team, but I think they are more battle-tested and up to the challenge.  I don't expect an undefeated season, but CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA strikes again in a nailbiter.  CLANGA! Aub: 31--MSU: 34
Hoying: Can Mississippi State handle success? Two years ago, the Bulldogs started 7-0 feasting on a cupcake schedule including Kentucky, Tennessee, and...Auburn (post-Cam Newton), then proceeded to get blasted three weeks in a row by Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Last week's dominating win over the Aggies seems to be more impressive than anything MSU has done since I've been watching college football, but the jury's still out how just how good A&M is this year (oooh, you beat South Carolina, just like...everybody else). At any rate, Bulldog QB Dak Prescott has blasted his way into SEC MVP and Heisman discussions, throwing for at least 2 TDs in every game except a garbage matchup against South Alabama, and rushing for nearly 500 yards in 5 games. Auburn's strength continues to be running the ball, but Mississippi State does it better. The only question for the Bulldogs is whether they can finish games strong. In their last two games, MSU gave up 19 and 14 unanswered points when it looked like the game was over. Auburn has the firepower to make the Bulldogs pay if they're caught sleepwalking, but I think they'll keep their eye on the prize this week: a possible #1 ranking. Aub: 21--MSU: 34
Schweinfurth:  I keep thinking that both of these will lose.  On that fact, for once, I'm right.  I still don't think either of these teams are top 10 worthy but they are both undefeated.  Still no one has been able to stop the Auburn rushing attack.  Combine that with the position the Bulldogs are in and I think Mississippi State is primed to fail.  Aub: 35--MSU: 31
Seeberg:  I...I just don't know about this game.  Auburn handled LSU easily, but the Bayou Tigers are down a bit this year.  The same can be said about the Bulldogs' defeat of a largely unproven Texas A&M team.  I think this game will come down to 3rd down conversions.  Dak Prescott is a better on obvious passing downs, and Auburn's vaunted rushing attack is just too one-dimensional to score enough in Starkville.  Aub: 20--MSU: 31

Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins
Draper: Oregon always craps the bed at some point in the season (usually somewhat inexplicably).  After the loss, they almost always demolish their next foe.  UCLA has played with fire all year (except vs. ASU), but it bit them last week as the Utes took them down.  I'm leaning toward Oregon righting the ship because some things can be fixed or ignored as a one-off, but UCLA's offensive line cannot be ignored.  Hundley is getting sacked left and right (more like Houston Texans David Carr...amirite?).  Ducks quack their way back into the national spotlight with a big win.  Ore: 41--UCLA: 24 (just looked at Seeberg's score--DANGIT)
Hoying: It's tempting to say that this game has become a lot less interesting after both teams choked at home last week. However, in the playoff era, it's no longer the drop between undefeated and one loss that's devastating, it's the drop between one loss and two. With the balance in the Pac-12 this season, the loser could still win out and probably take the conference title, but they'd run a terrible risk of being the #5 Power 5 champion in a four-team playoff world. So what happened last week? Oregon's O-line couldn't stop anybody from getting through, and UCLA's O-line...also couldn't stop anybody. It's going to be open season on elite quarterbacks this Saturday, and the key will likely be which D-line can take advantage of the opportunity. Oregon has 16 sacks on the season, while UCLA has only 7. Oregon has 38 TFLs; UCLA has 26. Do the math. Ore: 37--UCLA: 30
Schweinfurth: I keep going back and forth on this one.  Then I looked at the highlights of UCLA.  That offensive line...woof.  Yup that will be the difference here (even though Oregon's D can look like Swiss cheese at times).  It'll still be a fun one to watch. Ore: 45--UCLA: 38
Seeberg:  Well, Oregon went all, uh, Oregon last week, scoring a measley 24 points at home against a team that gave up 45 points to Cal.  UCLA's sieve-like offensive line finally caught up to them in an equally unimpressive loss against Utah.  I expected both teams to be undefeated heading into this game and would have given the slight edge to UCLA given home field and Brett Hundley.  In this scenario, however, I trust Mariotta more to get his squad to bounce back.  Ore: 41--UCLA: 24

TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Are the Horned Frogs for real? After dispatching OU at home in one of the many ridiculous games last weekend, TCU gets no favors as they head to Waco to face the Bears.  Baylor has been very quiet this year with Bryce Petty's being banged-up and such.  No one is talking about the #5 team in the country...until now.  Baylor has been waiting for their oppotunity to explode onto the scene and I think this is their chance.  Yeah, defense wins championships....blah blah blah.  This isn't a championship.  This is a big time game after TCU pulled out all the stops to beat OU at home in a huge emotional win.  Baylor is ready to leave it all out there this weekend and will overwhelm the drained Frogs.  TCU: 24--Baylor: 34
Hoying: Another year, another few games of Baylor crushing a few garbage opponents to open the season. The Bears feature the top scoring margin in the country, even ignoring a 70-6 dismantling of Northwestern State. However, coming it at #3 on the same list is TCU. You might counter that TCU certainly didn't beat Oklahoma by any grand margin, but last week reveals something even more troubling about Baylor. Playing a bad Texas team, Bear QB Bryce Petty played like garbage. Barely 100 yards passing, 31% completion rate awful. This is the same Texas secondary that let UCLA's backup QB beat them. Yes, the Oklahoma win was at home, and yes, traveling to Waco is a different animal, but TCU is just a better team, and dual-threat QB Trevone Boykin should keep the Horned Frogs in the thick of a tight Big 12 championship race. TCU: 34--Bay: 27
Schweinfurth: TCU had a nice little win over Oklahoma.  The big question is, can they shut down another Heisman candidate in Bryce Petty?  I'm not so sure, but then again, the Bear defense is just horrendous.  I think TCU can make at least one stop in this game and it will be enough.  TCU: 42--Baylor: 38
Seeberg:  And suddenly this game got WAY more interesting after TCU's upset last week.  (Side note:  Anyone, even 5 years ago, who tells you they KNEW that Baylor and TCU would be the best two teams in Texas is a lying sack of manure).  Baylor has been steamrolling opponents until they hit the Longhorns, only scoring 28, and it's hard to imagine that offense laying an egg two weeks in a row.  Then again, Bryce Petty struggled and was beaten in his last game of consequence against UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.  Still, Baylor scored 42 in that contest, and that should be enough points to get them a win at home.  TCU: 34--Baylor: 42

Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: TAMU has been living on a win over South Carolina in the opener that hasn't matured at all (in fact, it's rotted).  I haven't understood the hype they've been getting which is why I jumped on the CLANGA bandwagon last week.  Now the Rebels come in after the biggest win in school history.  Dr. Bo had a really nice game against the Tide and Nkemdiche and the Ole Miss defense was just nasty.  All signs point to Ole Miss keeping it rolling. But... As soon as last week ended, the Rebels acted like they had just won the Championship.  It looked like they emptied the chambers to get their signature win.  Bama isn't the Bama of the last 5 years.  Ole Miss has a great team, but Dr. Bo is ready for a faceplant. Kyle Field is the place.  I have NO faith that A&M is really any good....but I think they're good enough at HOME to take down another 'spent' team.  If the Rebels limit mistakes, they should take the win, but I don't think they will.  Ole Miss: 24--TAMU: 27
Hoying: Whom has Texas A&M beaten this season? South Carolina, the team that just lost to Kentucky? Winless SMU? Arkansas (in overtime)? The Aggies were exposed last week in Starkville as a less-than-serious SEC competitor in the brutal West division, but they can earn a quick redemption with a win over one of America's hottest teams, the Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebs' win over Alabama was no accident: Ole Miss features a punishing defense the likes of which the SEC hasn't seen in a couple of years. And shhhhh....but QB Bo Wallace might be just as good as A&M gunslinger Kenny Hill. The outstanding recruiting is finally paying off; Ole Miss is a genuinely elite team and not to be taken lightly. I don't think the Aggies are good enough to stop them. Ole Miss: 31--TAMU: 17
Schweinfurth: Ole Miss can't really be a top 5 team right?  Seriously I'm not buying.  What I am buying is the upset hangover they will have coming into this game.  The Aggies have a better offense than Alabama and will surely test that defense.  Ole Miss: 35--TAMU: 42
Seeberg:  As the season has progressed, A&M's "signature" dismantling of South Carolina looks less like a John Hancock and more like an outright forgery.  They only scored 17 meaningful points against Mississippi State last week and Ole Miss's D is likely even better.  What's more, even if the A&M offense shows up and competes, their defense just doesn't have the playmakers to make Bo Wallace pay for the 2-3 head-scratching throws he typically (ignoring last week) makes in a given game.  The college football world will indeed remain Mississippi-centric.  Ole Miss: 38--TAMU: 21

Upset Special
Draper: USC over Zona
Hoying: Washington State over Stanford
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Alabama
Seeberg:  Toledo over Iowa State

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Grading the Bucks: Week 7--Maryland

Welcome to the B1G Maryland! Sadly, you didn't pull Michigan like Rutgers did.

Offense: A
J.T. Barrett.  That's all that needs to be said.  He is currently on pace to DEMOLISH Troy Smith's single season TD pass record by more than 10 TDs. Doubtful that he can keep up this frenetic pace, but why not? The defenses aren't getting better (other than Nov. 8th) and the offense has improved each an every week.  Virginia Tech is a horrible stain on the resume, but in the category of 'what have you done for me lately', no team has been more impressive on offense.  Zeke is really churning it out on the ground (see the dominant first drive) and Wilson seems to be an explosive play waiting to happen (although we've been waiting for an awfully long time).  If the O-line can keep Barrett upright and these receivers keep improving (Good God Michael Thomas...Uncle Keyshawn taught you well), watch out for the Bucks going forward.  The one stain on the offense continues to be picking up a 3rd or 4th and short.  GIVE IT TO HYDE--Sorry, PTSD from B1G championship-- ZEKE!! The I-formation its uses.

Defense: B+
The pass defense is still getting hammered and I just don't get it.  Yes, there was another 'oops' play on Saturday, and that can't happen, but you can't compare this defense to a Tressel defense point by point.  I do believe that Tressel/Heacock defenses were superior but the point totals don't do this team any favors.  When your offense scores 50+, it's nearly impossible to keep an opponent below 10 or even 20 (sorry Kent State).  The stats (yards/points) aren't a fair comparison.  The safety play is still subpar but the D-line is phenomenal (Bosa....freak of nature).  I've been very impressed with the progression of the linebackers but that may be due to the emergence of Raekwon McMillon.  Curtis Grant is a fantastic run stopper, but a detriment in the passing game.  Raekwon and Darron Lee are improving by leaps and bounds.  Now, if Powell, Apple, and Bell can get it together, it's time to get excited.

Special Teams: B-
Eh....again, nothing memorable comes to mind in this game.  Maybe something happened, but nothing special. The downgrade is not due to missing the long field goal (that happens), but stop kicking the ball out of bounds on kickoffs!  Nothing wrong with a touchback.  Yeah, we pinned them at the 10 on a kickoff once, but you can never ever give them a starting field at the 40.

Coaching: B
The offense is chugging and the defense is improving, but I continue to be dumbfounded with some of the stupid decisions to go for it on fourth down.  I get the desire and want, but sometimes, a kick is the best decision from a utility standpoint.  Being aggressive is not a bad thing, but it is also important to call good plays if you decide to roll the dice.  4th and 1 continues to stymie this team because the offensive playcalling refuses to call a straight up dive.  We're OSU! We're bigger, stronger, and just simply better!  Snap the ball, and force the ball pass the chains when needed.  These sweeps and shotgun snaps are nice and sparkly, but sometimes, you just need to bulldoze. 

Overall: A-
Keep rolling along.  I love the improvement week to week.  Sadly, the true measuring stick won't arrive until Nov. 8.  All we can do is keep dominating the opposition in preparation for the end game.


Bonus: Everyone keeps spouting off that the B1G is a pipe dream of making the playoff.  If they give anyone a chance, it's Sparty.  I'm here to be Aaron Rodgers and to tell you to R-E-L-A-X.  If the Bucks take care of business, there's a really good chance to be there at the end.  Don't underestimate the power of 'how they are playing at the end of the season' and more importantly, the attrition that will follow.  I've heard talking heads say the Big Ten needs another Saturday of carnage like this past Saturday.  Here's the secret: 1 more day of Armageddon is unlikely, but many more days with semi-Armageddon is a virtual certainty.  The Bucks need to handle their business and avoid the craziness while letting the other teams crap the bed.  Trust me: the others will oblige.