Friday, October 17, 2014

Week 8 - Game of the Century?

Standings
1) Draper               23-10    (4-3 upset)
2) Seeberg              22-11    (0-7 upset)
3) Hoying               21-12    (3-4 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     19-14    (3-4 upset)

Now that the first half of the season has crowned the state of Mississippi as the be-all and end-all of the college football world, we can turn our attention to the other conferences around the nation, with games ranging from a reiteration of one of the most significant showdowns of all time to the return of the Buckeyes to the gridiron against an unfamiliar opponent.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: FSU continues their unbeaten streak while suffering the slings and arrows from every direction due to the lack of intelligence (and somewhat of a witch hunt) from their QB.  On the field, the Noles have been moving along quite well.  Many point to the 'struggles' but that's very normal when you get every team's best shot.  The 2013 Seminoles were, without question, better than this edition, but the 2014 Noles are still very very good.  The Irish have been struggling even more than the Seminoles but the narrative hasn't focused on that side of the coin.  Golson is a very good QB, but I believe Tally is ready to explode.  This Irish squad is a far cry from the 1993 squad that defeated the Noles in South Bend.  FSU makes a statement and takes care of business.  ND: 20--FSU: 34
Hoying: In 1993, the #1 Florida State Seminoles visited the #2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what was called the "Game of the Century." The Irish won but later suffered an upset and ended the season ranked #2, as Florida State rebounded to win their first national title. Nobody is going to confuse either of these year's teams with those juggernauts, but both have managed to weather the first half of their seasons without a loss. The Noles were tested in both their matchups against ranked teams, including a near loss to Clemson. But now that Jameis Pryor...er, Winston, is back and in freshman year form, the Noles are going to be tough to tackle, even if the defense isn't quite as suffocating as last year's squad. Irish QB Everett Golson's immaculate regular season record comes crashing down in Tallahassee. ND: 24--FSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Both of these teams have shown flaws over the last few weeks.  Notre Dame squeaked by an inferior North Carolina squad and Florida State just doesn't look like the same team this year.  I'm just excited that one of these teams have to lose this week (more chaos).  In the end, it comes down to Jameis' eligibility.  If he can go, the Noles win.  If not, well, just remember the Clemson game.  ND: 30--FSU: 35
Seeberg:   Let's be honest here, people, ND went all "La Suerte de los Tontos" (for you non-Spanish speakers that loosely translates as the luck of the foolish) in beating Stanford - at home - the only team of consequence they have played all season.  Florida State, though not as dominant on either side of the ball as last year, is still a much better team.  The golden domers gave up 43 points to a lackluster UNC squad, but of course ESPiN is invoking the titanic battles between FSU and ND in the late 80's and early 90's.  Sorry about your ratings, but this one won't be that close.  ND: 21--FSU: 38

Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: The Sun Devils' ranking relies on what? Getting blown out by UCLA? Beating USC with the worst Hail Mary defense in history? I just don't see it with Mike Bercovici.  Stanford doesn't have any great wins of note, but the win over Washington is pretty good, not to mention being very competitive vs. Notre Dame and USC (barring a last minute collapse).  It's in Tempe, but I think the Cardinal are simply better. HOGAAAAANNN!!  Stan: 20--ASU: 13
Hoying: Where resides the best defense in the country? I'll forgive you if you said Ole Miss, because their defense is spectacular, but the top lockdown crew is actually found in Palo Alto. The Cardinal are allowing a measly 10 points per game, surrendering 13 and 17 points in their 2 losses and giving up 20 points to NOBODY. The Stanford rushing attack has been lackluster, and QB Kevin Hogan has been good-not-great, but the Cardinal should be able to move the ball against a squishy Sun Devil defense. This game should come down to whether ASU QB Mike Bercovici replicates his UCLA performance (bad) or USC performance (good). I don't think he can navigate this stifling D. Stan: 17--ASU:16
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, another Pac-12 game that I really don't know much about.  I do know that Stanford is pretty good.  From what I have seen and read, I'm just not sold on the Sun Devils.  It's a Stanford game so it's gotta be a low scoring affair. Stan: 20--ASU: 14
Seeberg:  This is a bizarre matchup to analyze.  It's strength on strength (Cardinal D vs. ASU O) and weakness on weakness (Cardinal O vs. ASU D).  In comparing common opponents, Stanford gave up 13 to USC while ASU gave up 34.  Then again, ASU won, 38-34, and Stanford only mustered 10 points against the Trojans.  It's tough to imagine this game getting into even the 20s where the Sun Devils would have good odds to win this one.  Stanford just squeezes into the 20s and gets another win.  Stan: 23--ASU: 13

Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Kansas State's best performance of note this year is...a loss.  They fought valiantly against Auburn at home but couldn't get it done.  I'm still a believer in OU.  They have tons of talent and back home in Norman? Watch out.  This is just what the doctor ordered after a tough loss at TCU followed by a middling performance in a big rivalry.  Texas held the Sooners down, but I don't think the Wildcats will be able to recreate the magic.  Boomer!?!? ... KSU: 20--OU: 34
Hoying: Oklahoma struggled mightily against the Longhorns last week, accumulating only 232 yards of offense. This doesn't bode well for the Sooners, as they face a Wildcat defense that held a terrific Auburn offense to 20 points, nearly pulling off the upset. Kansas State has feasted on a steady diet of cupcakes so far this season and fell short in their only shot at glory to date. Normally, "Big Game Bob" is untouchable in Norman, but TCU fought their way to purple victory, a tradition the Wildcats should continue this week. KSU: 31--OU: 27
Schweinfurth: This one smells of an upset.  Oklahoma did not look good against Texas last week and Trevor Knight was held in check for almost all of that game.  Add in a porous pass defense and you have some trouble brewing.  Kansas State can chuck the ball all over, especially with Lockett running downfield.  KSU: 35--OU: 28
Seeberg:  The Sooners have looked pretty, well, average in the last two weeks, losing to TCU and struggling mightily on the offensive side of the ball against Texas.  The judgment that must be made is whether those were aberrations or if there are serious issues with Stoops' squad.  I choose the latter.  The Wildcats take the Longhorns' blueprint and do enough to shut down Oklahoma's offense and get back to the Little Apple with their biggest win of the year.  KSU: 27--OU: 21

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Ho hum...Another game with no benefits for a win and crushing implications for a loss (sorry Michigan).  Rutgers QB Gary Nova has put together a fine season for the Scarlet Knights intro to the B1G, but OSU is sneaking around the chicken coop...quietly murdering everyone in their path on the way to the showdown in East Lansing.  JT has been phenomenal all year and I don't expect anything different here.  Rutgers will fight hard, but this is no Wolverine squad.  The Bucks aren't going to mess around here.  Take care of business and keep the hopes alive. RU: 20--OSU: 48
Hoying: Despite both programs football histories dating back to at least 1890, this week features the first ever Scarlet Knights/Scarlet & Gray showdown. Raise your hand if you foresaw this game as a potential showcase of All-B1G QB candidates. Both Nova and Barrett rank in the top 5 in the nation in pass efficiency, and puzzling one-game chokes aside, both have been the unquestioned leaders of their respective offenses. Here's the big difference: Barrett can run, Nova can't. Rutgers may have been able to contain Devin Gardner, but JT has already surpassed the senior Wolverine in virtually every way (except maybe ability to play while broken in half). If the winner of this game can knock off Michigan State in East Lansing, they're a virtual lock to represent the B1G East in Indianapolis. Somehow, I don't see that contender being the Scarlet Knights. Wait your turn, Queens. RU: 24--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: Finally, another Ohio State game (and there are no more bye weeks until bowl/playoff season).  JT Barrett has been on fire the last three games and leading the Buckeye offense at a record setting pace.  Now look, I know the competition hasn't been the best, but that is still something to marvel at.  Rutgers is a fine program and "the Birthplace of College Football," but Ohio State is just better at every single position.  Joey Bosa is a man and he will see plenty of double and maybe even triple teams from here on out.  That is gonna open the door for Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington to do very bad things to QB Gary Nova.  I expect to see more of the same out of this team, get an early lead and put the pedal down until the end of the game.  4th straight game with 50+? It might just happen!  Rut: 17--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  My colleagues have very similar opinions on what will shake down in this game...and I'm no different.  Rutgers is remarkably 5-1 with two of the conference's biggest non-conference wins in Washington State and Navy.  It won't be nearly enough on homecoming in Ohio Stadium, however.  This team is a 180-degree departure from Cooper's days when the team would peak in September, blowing out big non-conference opponents, then stumble down the stretch.  The improvement week-to-week is visible to even a casual fan, and with two weeks to prep for Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights will understand what Scarlet on the football field is really supposed to look like.  RU: 17--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Northwestern over Nebraska
Hoying: Arkansas over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Boston College over Clemson
Seeberg:  West Virginia over Baylor

Thursday, October 16, 2014

2014 Rankings Premiere! Top 25 and Heisman Favorites - After Week 7

Now that the season is half over and the merry-go-round has slowed a bit, it's finally time to break out the more-useless-than-ever-in-the-playoff-era Top 25 Rankings and slightly less useless initial Heisman Ballots. Unless otherwise noted, rankings are based on what teams have done so far, not how we predict they will perform this week, let alone where they'll finish. 

If you interpret any of our Top 4's as a preliminary playoff prediction, we will come to your house and upper deck your toilets.

Draper Top 25
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Ole Miss
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Auburn
7. TCU
8. Alabama
9. Oregon
10. Michigan State
11. Arizona
12. Georgia
13. Ohio State
14. Oklahoma State
15. Nebraska
16. ECU
17. Utah
18. Marshall
19. Duke
20. Georgia Tech
21. Kansas State
22. Arizona State
23. USC
24. Stanford
25. Clemson

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi State)
2. Melvin Gordon (RB--Wisconsin)
3. JT Barrett (QB--THE Ohio State University)


Hoying Top 25
1. Mississippi State
2. Mississippi
3. Florida State
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. TCU
7. Auburn
8. Oregon
9. Arizona
10. Alabama
11. Georgia Tech
12. Michigan State
13. Oklahoma
14. Georgia
15. Duke
16. Nebraska
17. Minnesota
18. Marshall
19. Ohio State
20. Arizona State
21. Washington
22. Utah
23. UCLA
24. Oklahoma State
25. Kansas State

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Dak Prescott(QB--Mississippi State)
2. Melvin Gordon (RB--Wisconsin)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)

Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Ole Miss
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Michigan State
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. Oklahoma
11. TCU
12. Ohio State
13. Georgia
14. Kansas State
15. Oklahoma State
16. Arizona
17. Arizona State
18. East Carolina
19. Marshall
20. Nebraska
21. Utah
22. USC
23. Stanford
24. Duke
25. Texas A&M    
 
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi St.)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
3. JT Barrett (QB--Ohio State)
   
Seeberg Top 25
1.) Mississippi State
2.) Ole Miss
3.) Florida State
4.) Baylor
5.) Notre Dame
6.) Auburn
7.) Oregon
8.) Michigan State
9.) Alabama
10.) TCU
11.) Ohio State
12.) Oklahoma
13.) Kansas State
14.) Georgia
15.) Oklahoma State
16.) Arizona State
17.) Nebraska
18.) Arizona
19.) Utah
20.) USC
21.) Stanford
22.) Marshall
23.) East Carolina
24.) Duke
25.) Clemson

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1.) Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi State)
2.) Bryce Petty (QB-- Baylor)
3.) Everett Golson (QB-- Notre Dame)