Thursday, November 13, 2014

Week 12 - How the Wests Were Won

Standings
1) Draper               34-16    (4-7 upset)
2) Hoying               33-17    (3-8 upset)
3) Schweinfurth     32-18    (4-7 upset)
3) Seeberg              32-18    (1-10 upset)

The natural order has returned to the college football landscape. Our beloved Buckeyes once again reign supreme atop the B1G standings, the playoff contenders dwindle to a mere decade, and...the winds of winter remind us of the waning season before us. But fear not, faithful subscribers. It's a Western theme at Let's Go Bucks! this week, with two Southern-style games on the lineup, one of which should go a long way towards deciding the pecking order in the ALMIGHTY SEC WEST, as well as B1G Championship Part II: Delany Goes West.

#1 Mississippi State Bulldogs @ #5 Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: MSU was tearing through the SEC for awhile, but teams are starting to get it.  This team is not the layup it used to be.  The Bulldogs led by Dak Prescott are simply begging to get clipped after close calls vs. Kentucky and Arkansas.  Oh yeah, they're rolling into Tuscaloosa this week.  Bama isn't the juggernaut from the last few years, but they're pretty darn good.  Blake Sims should be able to make some noise against the Bulldog secondary.  If this was in CLANGA, I'd be a little skittish picking the Tide...but in Bama...Roll Tide, PAWWWWWLLLL.  MSU: 17--Bama: 27
Hoying: 23-17. 34-28. 29-24. 9-6. 28-27. 24-21. These are the scores of Alabama's last 6 conference losses, spanning 5 seasons. The Tide have built a culture of dominance that's the envy of the college football world. If you want to beat them, you'll need to find a way to solve what's arguably the nation's top defense. Even Dr. Bo at his best was only barely enough to take down the Tide, and that was in Oxford. Dak Prescott has trailed off a bit since MSU's big October, and Blake Sims has managed to play mistake-free ball after his poor showing against Ole Miss. These are two teams headed in two different directions, and the Bulldogs have been BEGGING to get tagged, posting lackluster wins at Kentucky and at home against Arkansas. The Tide roll and keep their title hopes alive. MSU: 20--Bama: 28
Schweinfurth: There is a historical trend with Alabama that says they lose the week after LSU.  I have been all about these trends (see my ND pick last week).  Mississippi State as been proving everyone wrong this year and Dak Prescott is getting some well deserved Heisman hype.  Yes this game is at Alabama, but that matters little to me.  What matters is that I don't think Alabama is that good. MSU: 31--Bama: 17
Seeberg:  I haven't done the research, but this may be the first time in college football history that the #1 team in the country is an 8.5-point underdog.  Frankly, I don't think it will sit well with the Bulldogs.  Bama's escape against LSU was their first win against a ranked opponent in over a year.  It was a game in which even Amari Cooper was neutralized and the offense looked lackluster at best.  Dak plays well enough to stay a Heisman frontrunner, and the Bulldogs leave Tuscaloosa unscathed.  MSU: 24--Bama: 17

#12 Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #22 Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: While last week was the premier matchup of the Big Ten, this is a solid number 2 (....hehehehe).  The West will (may) be won here (don't forget Minnyhaha).  Is Ameer going to go for the Huskers?  That's a huge question.  Let's look on the other side: Melvin Gordon and the Wisky running game has plowed everyone they've faced (Gordon had 259 and a TD in the loss to Northwestern).  And that passing game....well, the running game is really good.  The issue for the Badgers is the 'Blackshirt' defense.  No they aren't the 90s level, but they're better than any team Wisconsin has played sans LSU...and we all saw what happened there.  I thinkNebraska keeps the passing game in Bo Pelini land just enough to pull out the win in Madison.  Neb: 31--Wisc: 28
Hoying: If last week's de facto B1G East championship was a battle of two sledgehammers, this week's de facto B1G West championship is a clash of bulldozers. The conference's two premier running backs will be going head to head, although the shine's off Abdullah's apple a little after being utterly stifled by the Spartan defense (hmmm, perhaps we saw the B1G's premier back in East Lansing in a bit more recent memory). Melvin Gordon, on the other hand, hasn't been stopped by anybody except...Western Illinois...when they completely sold out the run under the theory that Wisconsin couldn't move the ball through the air (which might have worked, except they were...Western Illinois...). Nebraska's defense is improved, but the B1G's Blackshirts reside in Madison, where they're giving up less than 15 points a game. The problem is, Nebraska is good enough to sell out against the run and keep the nation's top RB contained just enough for the one-two punch of  Tommy Armstrong and Ameer Abdullah to squeak out a big road win and put Nebraska's streak of 4-loss seasons in serious jeopardy. Come on, do you really think the Badgers can ride the arm of Joel Stave to a significant victory? Neb: 31--Wis: 24
Schweinfurth: This one is going to look like an old school Big Ten game.  Both teams enjoy smash mouth football and play good defense.  To me this game comes down to which QB/RB tandem is the best.  Right now Tommy Armstrong and Ameer Abdullah is that pair.  Melvin Gordon is good, and he will get his yards, but Wisconsin just doesn't have a good enough playmaker at QB.  Neb: 21--Wis: 14
Seeberg:  This game might feature the two best running backs in the country.  I say that not because there may be better ones out there (aside from the recently unsuspended Todd Gurley- see below), I say it because Ameer Abdullah's dodgy knee may keep him out of action, or at least limit him.  Nebraska's schedule has gotten them to 8-1, not their talent level.  Wisconsin is just a notch better most of the way across the board, and the Badgers will Jump Around to the front of the B1G West.  Neb: 21--Wis: 31

#9 Auburn Tigers @ #17 Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: This one is tough because both of these teams are a bit up and down.  Auburn is the better team and far more consistent, but UGA is getting the best running back in college football back in Todd Gurley.  Much of this will be determined by how the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Chubb run over the Auburn defense.  I have a feeling this will be your standard SEC offensive firework show (what?).  These defenses are not good.  UGA will run at will, and Auburn will mix it up with Sammy Coates and Nick Marshall.  This is going to be a shootout (all of a sudden, shootout means good right ESECPN?) with Auburn coming out on top between the hedges. Aub: 51--UGA: 41
Hoying: Florida attempted 4 passes and blew out Georgia. FLORIDA. Georgia's played a great slate of games against Clemson...and...nobody, managing to lose twice along the way, while Auburn's been playing the heavy sluggers week in and week out, dodging punches and counter-punching (join the Nintendo Fun Club today, Mac!). Auburn runs the ball as well as anyone, and while Gurley is a difference-maker, it's not like the Bulldogs were lacking with Chubb in the backfield. The team around them just isn't that great. An Auburn win just about locks up the SEC East for Indian...er...Missouri, to face off against, well, probably not Auburn. But it's important to win your rivalry games, even if they happen every week in the SEC. Aub: 34--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: I have a hint on how to beat Georgia...run the ball.  Wait, I forgot, Auburn is one of the best at running the football!!  The Bulldogs must still be having nightmares about that Florida game.  Nick Marshall is very good at operating Malzahn's spread option offense.  Georgia will get Todd Gurley back but that's not going to be enough.  Expect lots of rushing yards and a lot of bad passing. Aub: 24--UGA: 17
Seeberg:  Man...I just don't know about this one.  Gurley is back- although his stand-in Mr. Chubb has been more than serviceable in Gurley's absence, averaging over 140 ypg.  Unfortunately for the SEC East Bulldogs, Nick Marshall and Co. come to town as the only team in the conference better equipped to control the game on the ground.  Gurley gives the home team a boost early, but in the end it's just too much Auburn ground game for Georgia to handle.  Aub: 38--UGA: 28

#8 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: Can the Buckeyes handle the spotlight with success?  Last week, they were the underdog and fighting against the world.  This week, everyone is patting them on the back and saying how great they are.  Can they keep it going against a better than expected team in very cold conditions?  I think one of the best things for the Bucks is that little number 25 by Minnesota's name.  It may be arbitrary, but it's a warning to not look past this team.  JT keeps lighting up the scoreboard, but Minnesota will do their best to take the air out of the football and shorten the game.  Bucks win comfortably, but the score is lower than expected.  Look for another big day for Zeke churning in the cold weather with a few pinpoint passes from Mr. Barrett.  OSU: 41--Minn: 24
Hoying: STAY HUNGRY. After the program's biggest win since knocking off Wisconsin in 2011 and most significant win since the phantom victory over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, the Bucks are riding high. But there's no rest for the weary, as the Buckeyes now face America's favorite completely one-dimensional team, the Golden Gophers. I'm not sure if there's a bigger mirage in the entire landscape of college football than Minnesota, whose best win is over Iowa and second best win is over...Middle Tennessee...and throws the ball worse than Michigan does. Yeah, yeah, David Cobb is a great running back, but if the Silver Bullets can wake up and remember the tackling that brought them through the early B1G season, this should be a total laugher. This is a colossal mismatch, and the Bucks should keep right on rolling up the rankings towards #4, no matter what my fellow Admiral Ackbars think. OSU: 45--Minn: 17
Schweinfurth: It's a trap (game)!!!  No really, it's a trap.  Everyone has been praising the Buckeyes since the big win last week, and rightfully so.  It was a huge win for Meyer and the program.  However, it won't matter if the Bucks look past Goldy this week.  Minnesota is not a slouch team, but they aren't world beaters either.  There will be plenty of running to go around this week as the weather is going to be cold and snowy.  I trust the Bullets to negate David Cobb. I expect Zeke and the O-line to churn out some big yards on the ground.  This one stays closer than it should be with the weather factor.  OSU: 35--Minn: 10
Seeberg:  I have to be honest, I am moderately worried about this game.  OSU wins the game it has had circled on its schedule for nearly 12 months and then takes on (previously) lowly Minnesota.  Except not anymore.  Minnesota is 7-2, ranked in the 12 Titans poll, and is coming off an absolute shellacking of Iowa.  Oh, and the game is at noon (11 AM local time) and it will be frigid and snowy (because, for reasons FAR BEYOND my comprehension, they got rid of the dome and build multiple outdoor venues).  The only thing that makes me confident is that it is nearly impossible for Minnesota to play that well two weeks in a row.  The Bucks are much more talented across the board, but the lousy weather, early start and surprisingly competent opponent will keep things close for a bit longer than they should be.  In the end though, too much EZ E (see what I did there) running downhill, and a nice, long drive for 7 to close it out midway through the 4th, eerily reminiscent of how we put away the mighty Spartans.  OSU: 38--Minn: 21

Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over LSU (Derp gets his first SEC win)
Hoying: Miami over Florida State
Schweinfurth: Virginia Tech over Duke
Seeberg:  Georgia Southern over Navy

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Grading the Bucks -- Week 11: Michigan State

See my prediction of the game.  Last week went exactly according to plan.  Early mistakes followed by a fantastic response.

Offense: A
There we go.  Exactly what the Dr. ordered for this young team - a chance to open up and do what they do best.  JT was phenomenal and did things that I haven't seen a QB do since Troy Smith 2006.  This isn't to say that JT is the next Heisman winner, but man he looked great against the 'supposed' immovable Spartan D.  His passes were crisp and on the money and his decisions were on the money.  His moves were great when he chose to run even when we MSU had to know it was coming.  Let's not forget the other aspects of the offense.  The WR were making plays (Smith had his best game and Thomas is going to be star).  The O-line has really come into their own and is in for some great things in the future.  Oh yeah, let's know forget Zeke who was fantastic.  See what happens when we give Hyde...er, uh, Elliot, the ball? Good stuff.  This offense is definitely one that no one wants to face especially with an Oline that can protect and run block effectively against a good defense.

Defense: B
The point total wasn't pretty, but the execution was pretty good.  The downgrade isn't for the number of points given up, but for the missed tackles that sprinkled throughout this game. Conley getting run over was simply embarrassing.  Langford gave the Bucks fits so there's still work to be done.  The linebackers continue to improve in pass coverage (but the MSU O-line controlled the line of scrimmage and the run game).  Overall, I was pleased with the secondary play sans a few plays near the end of the game, but they did what they needed to.  I heard a lot of questions about the disappearance of Bosa, but this is a team sport.  While the commentators questioned where Bosa was, the rest of the line was making a statement...why? Because Bosa was attracting all the attention.  Clean up the (bad) missed tackles and these will be some Bullets.

Special Teams: C
Woof. For all the emphasis Urban puts on special teams, they plain suck.  47 yard FG ends up short (not that big of a deal), but the turnovers on the punts and the fumbles on the kickoff (paging Dontre) are simply unacceptable.  Yes, I saw that Dontre had a broken foot...maybe he shouldn't have been out there if he was hurt...and yes, the coach should know about it and/or the player should have taken himself out.  Oh yeah, Cameron Johnston was good for his two punts.

Coaching: A
This was by far the best coached game I've seen by Tom Herman in his time at OSU.  The run/pass mix was perfect and he finally played to the strengths of JT--he can pass where Braxton couldn't.  Defensively, the calls were good but the execution needs to improve tackling, but offensively, this was about the most perfectly called game ever.  Look at the drive summary for OSU: Missed FG, Punt, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, Punt.  More of this please!

Overall: A-
More please.  The VT game is a distant memory.  Time to focus on what the Bucks can control.  Keep winning and let the dominoes fall where they may.  Let's enjoy this win and focus on the Gophers.

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 11

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave a comment and challenge our experts to defend themselves.

Let's Go Bucks! Index

1a. Florida State (unchanged)
1b. Mississippi State (unchanged)
3. Oregon (unchanged)
4. TCU (up 1)
5. Alabama (up 2)
6. Arizona State (up 3)
7. Baylor (up 4)
8. Ohio State (up 6)
9. Auburn (down 5)
10. Ole Miss (up 3)
11. Michigan State (down 5)
12. Nebraska (up 3)
13. UCLA (up 5)
14. Kansas State (down 6)
15. Duke (up 2)
16. Arizona (up 3)
17a. Georgia (up 4)
17b. Notre Dame (down 7)
19. LSU (down 7)
20. Marshall (unchanged)
21. Clemson (up 3)
22. Wisconsin (up 3)
23. Oklahoma (down 7)
24. Texas A&M (unranked)
25. Florida (unranked)

Others receiving votes: Georgia Tech, Colorado State, Miami, Utah, Minnesota

Dropped from rankings: #22 West Virginia, #22 Utah

Let's Go Bucks! Heisman Index
1. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
2. Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi State)
3. Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)


Draper Top 25
1. Florida State (unchanged)
2. Mississippi State (unchanged)
3. TCU (up 1)
4. Oregon (up 1)
5. Alabama (up 1)

6. Arizona State (up 2)
7. Baylor (up 2)
8. Ohio State (up 6)
9. Auburn (down 6)
10. Ole Miss (up 1)
11. Michigan State (down 4)
12. Nebraska (up 3)
13. Duke (up 3)
14. Kansas State (down 6)
15. LSU (down 4)
16. Notre Dame (down 3)
17. Georgia (up 2)
18. Clemson (up 2)
19. UCLA (up 3)
20. Arizona (up 3)
21. Wisconsin (up 3)
22. Utah (down 1)

23. Marshall (up 2)
24. Colorado State (unranked)
25. Georgia Tech (unranked)


Dropped from rankings: #17 Oklahoma, #18 West Virginia

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi State)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
3. J. T. Barrett (QB--Ohio State)


Hoying Top 25

1. Mississippi State (unchanged)
2. Florida State (unchanged)
3. Oregon (unchanged)
4. TCU (up 1)
5. Alabama (up 7)
6. Arizona State (up 2)
7. Baylor (up 6)
8. Auburn (down 4)
9. UCLA (up 1)
10. Ohio State (up 9)
11. Mississippi (unchanged)
12. LSU (down 3)
13. Arizona (up 1)
14. Michigan State (down 8)
15. Nebraska (up 1)
16. Duke (up 2)
17. Texas A&M (unranked)
18. Florida (up 3)
19. Georgia (up 3)
20. Kansas State (down 13)
21. Clemson (up 2)
22. Miami (unranked)
23. Colorado State (up 2)
24. Notre Dame (down 9)
25. Oklahoma (down 8)
Dropped from rankings: #20 West Virginia, #24 Utah

Hoying Heisman Ballot

1. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
2. Melvin Gordon (RB--Wisconsin)
3. Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)


Schweinfurth Top 25
1. Florida State (Unchanged)
2. Mississippi State (Unchanged)
3. Oregon (Unchanged)
4. TCU (Unchanged) 
5. Baylor (Up 4)
6. Ohio State (Up 5)
7. Alabama (Up 1)
8. Arizona State (Up 4)
9. Nebraska (Up 6)
10. Marshall (Up 4)
11. Michigan State (Down 5)
12. Auburn (Down 5)
13. Notre Dame (Down 8)
14. Kansas State (Down 4)
15. Ole Miss (Up 2)
16. Arizona (Up 2)
17. Duke (Up 2)
18. UCLA (UP 3)
19. Wisconsin (Up 3)
20. Oklahoma (Down 4)
21. Georgia (Up 2)
22. Georgia Tech (Unranked)
23. Minnesota (Unranked)
24. Clemson (Unranked)
25. Colorado State (Unranked)

Dropped from Rankings: Utah, Stanford, USC, LSU
 
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
2. Dak Prescott (QB--Mississippi St.)
3. Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)
  

Seeberg Top 25
1.) Mississippi State (same)
2.) Florida State (same)
3.) Oregon (up 1)
4.) TCU (up 1)
5.) Alabama (up 1)
6.) Arizona State (up 6)
7.) Ohio State (up 4)
8.) Baylor (up 6)
9.) Auburn (down 6)
10.) Ole Miss (same)
11.) Michigan State (down 4)
12.) Nebraska (up 1)
13.) UCLA (up 5)
14.) Kansas State (down 6)
15.) Georgia (up 7)
16.) Arizona (up 3)
17.) Duke (same)
18.) Wisconsin (up 3)
19.) Notre Dame (down 10)
20.) LSU (down 4)
21.) Clemson (up 2)
22.) Marshall (down 2)
23.) Oklahoma (down 8)
24.) Georgia Tech (unranked)
25.) Minnesota (unranked)

Dropped from rankings :  #24 Utah, #25 West Virginia

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1.) Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)
2.) Dak Prescott (QB--Miss St)
3.) Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)