Thursday, October 29, 2015

Week 9 - Smell My Feet

Standings
1) Seeberg              30-11    (0-8 upset)
2) Draper                29-12    (4-4 upset) 
3) Hoying               27-14    (1-7 upset)
3) Schweinfurth     27-14    (1-7 upset)


After an abysmal round of picks last week, we turn our attention to a few better matchups around the nation. Florida State and Utah proved that no undefeated team is safe in any given week, except the Buckeyes (and the Tigers, and the Spartans, and the Bears, and the Rockets), because they're not playing.


Georgia Bulldogs vs. #12 Florida Gators

Draper: While the Cocktail Party has lost luster over the past 5 years, this one should be a good one.  The Gators should be reeling after the dismissal of Will Grier, but they showed up in a big way in Death Valley in a close loss to the Tigers.  The Dawgs had super high hopes that crashed early, but are slowly resurging.  This game has a good chance of determining the SEC East.  While I believe UGA will be playing tough, no Nick Chubb and a surprisingly resilient Gator squad keeps the dream alive in a close one.  Be honest, Richt is known for blowing games like this on a regular basis.  UGA: 20--UF: 27
Hoying: Which Georgia is going to show up in Jacksonville: the one that lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee or the one that got emasculated by Alabama? It's not like Georgia to get outclassed in the World's Largest Drunken Whatever, but this one will depend whether Treon Harrisuspension is able to put last season's nightmarish production behind him. Will Muschamp isn't around to keep the Gators from scoring this time. UGA: 17--UF: 27

Schweinfurth: Interesting that this is an under performing team and an over performing team. To me, these two teams are mirror images of each other. This well be kept close, but I think the Dogs kick a field goal to win. UGA: 20--UF: 27
Seeberg:  Ah yes, somebody pass me a cocktail.  Florida's offense was surprisingly productive in Death Valley, managing 28 points in a loss to LSU.  Greyson Lambert, meanwhile, has been dreadful against the two elite defenses he has played, though one was a set-the-game-back-50-years 9-6 win at Missouri.  Nick Chubb has remained excellent, but the Gator D can feast on a largely one-dimensional offense so the Bulldogs are likely in trouble yet again.  Anybody have 3 losses for Georgia this early in the season?  Well, it's about to be a reality.  UGA: 17--FLA: 28

#14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ #15 Temple Owls
Draper: Another team left for dead when the quarterback was lost for the season...and they refuse to comply.  Yeah, the Irish lost to Clemson in a monsoon, but acquitted themselves quite well versus a team that is steamrolling most competition.  Temple on the other hand is quietly undefeated with a few decent wins.  Can they keep it going when the national eyes are focused on them as Gameday visits Philly?  While Temple has been surprising people all year, I don't think they quite have the horses to take that next giant step as of yet.  It will be a good game, but the better athletes outlast the emotions of the upstarts.  ND: 30--Tem: 20
Hoying: Finally ready for primetime, it's the Temple Owls on ESPN 2, 5, and 6! It would sure be a treat for the Owls to take down the mighty Irish, but they might need a few tricks to do so. Notre Dame has rolled merrily along after a hard-fought comeback fell just short in Death Valley. Temple has the formula for success against Power 5 (+1, sorry BYU) opponents: get to the QB early and often. ND backup DeShone Kizer has been serviceable, but if he goes down 10 times like Sackenberg did, it'll be a long night for the Irish. Somehow I don't think ND's O-line is quite that bad. ND: 27--Tem: 16

Schweinfurth: Temple, as an undefeated team, has been a nice story this year. I just don't see them finishing the season unbeaten (Houston and Memphis will see to that). The Irish have endured a tone of injuries, but are just a deeper team. Notre Dame is much stronger on the O-line so don't expect Temple's pass rush to reek havoc in this one. ND: 35--Tem:21
Seeberg:  Remember when we all buried Penn State in week one after that horrendous loss against Temple?  Might not have been so bad after all (although nearly losing to Maryland was).  At any rate, Temple hasn't played any notable programs since (sorry, Cinci), and the Owls are 7-0 as a result.  Meanwhile, the Golden Domers have thrived with backup QB DeShone Kizer filling in quite nicely.  However, this game needs to be about C.J. Prosise.  Temple's proven pass rush may cause issues at times for the Irish, but I expect Prosise to have a big day and wear the Owls down in the second half despite their nocturnal proclivities.  Wake up the echoes again (sigh).  ND: 35--Tem: 21

North Carolina Tar Heels @ #23 Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper:  Wheeeeeeee...classic ACC showdown between 6-1 teams.  Are either of these teams any good...probably not, but someone's gotta win.  Winner of this game has a great chance to represent the ACC Coastal in Charlotte if they can defeat the Duke juggernaut.  I'll be honest, I know very little about these teams, but neither is anything special.  Usually, I lean to the home team in such cases, but Pitt has squeaked out all their wins.  Yes, the Panther loss is better (last second FG loss to Iowa) but the wins...trash.  Who cares! UNC: 27--Pitt: 24
Hoying: And you thought the ACC Atlantic division race was exciting, with Clemson and...Clemson vying for a spot in Playoffs 2: The Search for More Money. No, dear readers, the Coastal division is where the real action is! See powerhouses like North Carolina and Pittsburgh square off in forgotten Thursday night games for the right to face THE DUKIES in a de facto divisional championship. We know that UNC is B1G caliber, thrashing Illinois at home, and Pitt is not, losing to Iowa on a 80 or so yard FG in Iowa City. Still, I picked Pitt to win the Coastal before the season started and I'm much too stubborn to change my mind now. UNC: 20--Pitt: 21

Schweinfurth: ACC ROFLcopter game of the week. Pitt's been playing well so I'll roll with them. UNC: 17--Pitt: 28
Seeberg:  In case you haven't noticed (and judging by the attendance, you haven't- thanks Bob), both of these squads have just one blemish and the 2 combined losses are by just 7 points.  Both teams have road wins at Georgia Tech and home wins against Virginia by relatively similar scores as well, so it's likely there won't be much separating these two teams.  Both have well-balanced offensive units and the Tar Heels move the ball a bit better but have done so against slightly inferior competition than Pitt has faced (2 FCS programs vs. 1, Pitt's lone loss was at undefeated Iowa).  Quite frankly, I think this game is a toss-up no matter how you look at it, so I literally flipped a coin.  UNC wins!  UNC: 31--Pitt: 28

#10 Stanford Cardinal @ Washington State Cougars

Draper: Stanford has really come into their own after the early loss to Northwestern dominating the ground game in the Pac 12.  Mike Leach has finally developed the Wazzu team into a viable threat in the Pac 12 due to his deep thoughts about mystery of life.  With that being said, the Cougs haven't faced a defense or a ground game of this caliber.  I wish game day would have shown up to WSU after the years and years of flying their colors in the background, but Stanford should grab total control of the North this week.  Stan: 38--WSU: 24

Hoying: From ACCtion to PACtion. Stanford might need a few more points than the 6 they trotted out against Northwestern to start the season, but that shouldn't be a problem as long as they play Stanford Football (TM). Cap'n Leach will do his best to make the Stanford D walk the plank in Pullman with his efficient Cougar offense, but the Cardinal have stepped up big in 2 consecutive prove-it games over the past two weeks. Kevin Hogan has a big day against a suspect Wazoo D, and the Cougs are left to wonder if having Gameday on campus would've provided the boost they needed to return to their 2002-03 peak of relevance. Stan:45--WSU: 23
Schweinfurth: The Stanford Steamroller is chugging along again. Hogan looks like the QB we all though he was at the start of the season. Mike Leach is known for offense, not defense and it will show through. Stanford keeps on (steam)rolling. Stan: 42--WSU: 21
Seeberg:  I have 11 misses on the season and without going back through all of my picks I am positive at least half involved a PAC-12 team.  Can't figure out what's going on out west this season.  I do know that WAzoo has played better than expected this season, but Stanford has been basically lights out since their abysmal start against Northwestern.  The Cougars have some offensive firepower to keep it close for awhile, but the Cardinal pull away comfortably in the second half.  Stan: 45--WSU: 27

Upset Special

Draper: Texas Tech over Oklahoma State
Hoying: West Virginia over TCU
Schweinfurth: Auburn over Ole Miss
Seeberg:  UMass over Ball State

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 8

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave a comment and tell us who's doing it right.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. LSU (up 1)
2. Ohio State (up 1)
3. Clemson (up 1)
4. Michigan State (unchanged)
5a. Baylor (up 1)
5b. TCU (up 2)
7a. Memphis (up 2)
7b. Iowa (up 1)
9. Alabama (up 2)
10. Stanford (up 3)
11. Oklahoma State (up 1)
12. Florida (up 2)
13. Utah (down 12)
14. Notre Dame (up 2)
15. Temple (up 3)
16. Michigan (up 1)
17. Ole Miss (up 4)
18. Florida State (down 8)
19a. Texas A&M (down 4)
19b. Houston (up 1)
21a. Toledo (up 1)
21b. Oklahoma (up 1)
23a. Northwestern (down 1)
23b. Pittsburgh (up 2)
23c. UCLA (unranked)

Dropped from rankings: #19 California

Others receiving votes: Mississippi State, Penn State, Duke, Wisconsin

Let's Go Bucks Heisman Index
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (RB--OSU)

Others receiving votes: Dalvin Cook (RB--FSU), Corey Coleman (WR--Baylor), Trevone Boykin (QB--TCU)


Draper Top 25
1. Ohio State (unchanged)
2. Louisiana State (up 1)
3. Clemson (up 2)
4. Baylor (unchanged)
5. Memphis (up 2)
6. TCU (up 2)
7. Michigan State (down 1)
8. Iowa (up 2)
9. Bama (up 2)
10. Florida (up 3)
11. Oklahoma State (up 3)
12. Stanford (unchanged)
13. Utah (down 11)
14. Notre Dame (up 1)
15. Florida State (down 6)
16. Michigan (up 1)
17. Ole Miss (unranked)
18. Temple (up 2)
19. Toledo (down 1)
20. Houston (down 1)
21. Texas A&M (down 5)
22. Pitt (up 4)
23. Northwestern (down 2)
24. Oklahoma (down 2)
25. Duke (down 2)
Dropped from Rankings: #23 Cal

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Ezekiel Elliot (RB--OSU)
3. Dalvin Cook (RB--FSU)


Hoying Top 25
1. LSU (up 1)
2. Iowa (up 1)
3. Clemson (up 3)
4. Memphis (up 1)
5. Michigan State (down 1)
6. Ohio State (up 1)
7. TCU (up 1)
8. Baylor (up 1)
9. Temple (up 2)
10. Oklahoma State (up 2)
11. Florida (up 2)
12. Alabama (up 2)
13. Stanford (up 7)
14. Utah (down 13)
15. Mississippi (up 3)
16. Notre Dame (up 5)
17. Michigan (unchanged)
18. Northwestern (up 1)
19. Texas A&M (down 3)
20. UCLA (up 4)
21. Mississippi State (unranked)
22. Pittsburgh (unchanged)
23. Penn State (up 2)
24. Toledo (unranked)
25. Wisconsin (unranked)

Dropped from rankings: #10 Florida State, #15 California, #23 Navy

Hoying Heisman Ballot (why couldn't JT have started all season...)
1. Leonard Fournette (RB--LSU)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (RB--OSU)
3. Corey Coleman (WR--Baylor)


Seeberg Top 25
1.) Ohio State (same)
2.) LSU (same)
3.) Clemson (up 1)
4.) Michigan State (up 1)
5.) TCU (up 2)
6.) Baylor (unchanged)
7.) Stanford (up 2)
8.) Alabama (up 1)
9.) Iowa (up 2)
10.) Memphis (up 4)
11.) Notre Dame (up 2)
12.) Oklahoma State (up 3)
13.) Utah (down 10)
14.) Michigan (up 2)
15.) Oklahoma (up 3)
16.) Florida (up 1)
17.) Florida State (down 9)
18.) Houston (up 1)
19.) Temple (up 1)
20.) Ole Miss (up 1)
21.) UCLA (up 3)
22.) Toledo (same)
23.) Pitt (up 2)
24.) Texas A&M (down 12)
25.) Duke (unranked)

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1.) Leonard Fournette (RB- LSU)
2.) Ezekiel Elliott (RB- OSU)
3.) Trevone Boykin (QB- TCU)

Monday, October 26, 2015

Grading the Bucks: Week 8 -- Rutgers

Heeeeeeeeee's Baaaaaaaaaacccckkkk!

Most said 'changing the QB won't fix the flaws of this offense'.  Most outside of Let's Go Bucks that is.  Captain Smooth returned and their was much rejoicing.

Offense: A
JT comes back and everyone knows their role and thrives.  The line seems to be energized with JT under center.  I think that's because they trust him to make the right decisions.  The receivers know the ball will be there if they're open.  I hate to say this, but Cardale doesn't make 50% of the throws JT made against Rutgers.  They weren't necessarily tough throws but JT takes what's given (see slant to Thomas for 50 yards).  Even the deep ball was in JT's arsenal in addition to near flawless running of the read option.  This team is built for JT's game.  Zeke was bottled up early because Rutgers decided to make that the focal point (note how they couldn't stop anything else).  That being said, Zeke wears teams down and the 4th quarter is Zeke's quarter.  The only flaw was a stupid fumble by JT when Michael Thomas couldn't get out of his way (still, that's on JT). 

Defense: A
Yeah, they gave up the shutout with the scrubs in, but quality performance.  In fact, the performance was near flawless if you take out the first and last drives.  The D looked confused on the first drive giving up some chunk plays to a fairly good Rutgers offense, but tightened up and refused to give any quarter after that.  Conley made a spectacular interception and the defensive line just completely destroyed the Knights.  Bosa & Co. were getting pressure so quickly that they were disrupting handoffs.  It was a complete mismatch on the lines which made for a dominant performance.  Linebackers also played quite well after the poor tackling early.

Special Teams: A-
Didn't really near Cameron Johnston much although his one punt was one of his worst of the year.  No missed PATs, great coverage on kicks, and solid returns each time.  Marshall drives me crazy but he looked good returning punts Saturday. Oh yeah, we blocked a punt too.

Coaching: A-
They finally figured it out.  Cardale has some talent, but this is JT's offense.  Great commitment to the gameplan when it didn't explode out of the gate.  Defensively, they shut down the high powered Scarlet Knight offense.  The biggest question came on the weird 'trick' play called late in the game.  I tweeted out immediately that, had Jalin Marshall thrown the ball, it would have been a penalty.  This was noticed by Kirk (or more likely, some stat nerd in the ESPN booth) and mentioned on the broadcast, but that raises 2 questions: 1) Why was a trick play called in that situation against Rutgers? and 2) Did the coaching staff realize that the play as (likely) designed was illegal?  It stuns me how many coaches, players, commentators, etc. are not completely familiar with the rules.  Maybe he was supposed to fake throwing and then run....but I doubt it.  Maybe he was supposed to 'fake the fake'..I don't know where I am (courtesy of Coach Kline).

Overall: A
Lost the shutout, but this was the dominant performance on which we have been waiting.  This is the team to smash all who think to oppose them.  No mercy for the rest of the year.  The Mission to repeat is back.  Remove all hope from any opposition.  This is our trophy and we ain't giving it up.