Friday, December 02, 2016

Week 14 - No Rematches This Year!

Standings
1) Hoying              41-15        (4-9 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    36-15        (6-6 upset)
3) Draper               38-18        (4-9 upset)
4) Seeberg             36-20        (4-9 upset)

Normally, Conference Championship weekend is a pile of suck because of pointless rematches essentially invalidating one or more regular season games. This year, it's a pile of suck, not because of the rematches (there are none) but because our beloved Buckeyes are once again stuck at home. 

MAC: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ohio Bobcats
Draper: I know very little about these teams, but I know that there's been a lot of boat-rowing in Kalamazoo.  This is all about an interview for Mr. Fleck and the hot WMU Broncos.  But wait, Ohio is coached by someone who has been in a real life national championship game (let's ignore the fact that he got blown out).  Ohio has been overlooked much of the year, but they've earned a spot here and could really mess with the Group of 5 (not to mention costing the MAC a lot of money), but the Broncos are 'too hot to handle'.  WMU rows to a MAC Championship, a likely New Year's Six shellacking, and a new coach next year.  WMU: 41--OU: 31
Hoying: Hello, mismatch. The Broncos are clearly the superior team here, and they have the prize of all prizes for a MAC school in front of them: likely win-and-into the Cotton Bowl. They've proven they can handle the pressure so far, but there may be a problem: where is PJ Fleck's head right now? The Oregon job is open, the Purdue job is available, Indiana just fired Kevin Wilson, Brian Kelly is "exploring his options". . . Is PJ going to keep rowing the boat or sail off into deeper waters? The Bobcats have shown up for every game this year, nearly scoring a big upset over Tennessee, but I think the Broncos will still have the focus to take care of business and boost PJ onto the big stage with a chance to prove that the Texas Longhorns hired the wrong young hotshot. WMU: 38--OU: 31
Schweinfurth: Hooray for MACtion! Ok, in all honesty, I really don't care about this game even though this has some serious New Year's Six implications. PJ Fleck has the Broncos believing and playing very well all year. The committee has had them underrated all year. This is WMU's last chance for a statement and OU is just a speed bump. UMU: 42--OU: 24
Seeberg:  Honestly, Frank Solich has done a great job at OU since being unceremoniously canned from Nebraska over a decade ago.  He took a perennial MAC bottom-feeder and turned it into a near-perennial bowl team.  P.J. Fleck, however, is the midwestern Tom Herman, having resurrected the Broncos, putting them on the path for a big payday come January 1st (or 2nd this year since the NFL will take over New Years- so sacrilegious).  My guess is the nerves of the moment keep the Bobcats in it for a half, but too much Bronco offense eventually wins the day.  Enjoy the MACtion!  WMU: 38--OU: 24

Pac-12: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Washington Huskies
Draper: The Pac 12 has been a pillow fight all year with no real dominant team other than the Huskies...until they were blasted at home by USC.  Utah, Colorado, Wazzu, and USC have been nice teams, but there is simply no way to tell if there is any substance here (with 0 good out of conference wins by ANYONE).  The Buffs have had a great season, but I don't think Sefu Liufau has enough juice to keep up with Jake Browning, Pettis, and Ross.  UW heads to the playoff and a likely showdown with Bama....good luck with all that.  CU: 27--UW: 34
Hoying: For the better part of a month, Buckeye Nation has been rooting for these teams to lose in order to avoid this exact matchup. The Pac-12 continues to suck this year but these teams are actually kind of good, both playing stellar defense and getting terrific play out of QBs Sefo Liufau and Jake Browning. Fortunately, the committee still hates them both, barely putting Washington at #4 ahead of Meeeeeechigan and Colorado trailing well behind the rest of the B1G elite. I don't even know who I want to win this game. A Buffalo victory all but locks the Buckeyes into the playoffs, but it also greatly increases the chances that our friends up north get in as well, and I don't want to see them again this year (rematches are dumb, see above). Speaking of the Maize and Blue, Colorado went into Ann Arbor and played them to a standstill for 3 quarters while U-Dub was busy with Rutgers. The Buffs come into this battle tested and score the big upset on their way...to the Rose Bowl. CU: 31--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: Let me say that the PAC-12 has been all over the map this year. There is no "great" team in this conference. Washington was a great story until USC blew their doors off and game Colorado the blue print to beat them. I really want to see this upset just for Colorado's sake. This once proud program has been through a lot of heartache since joining the PAC-12. Washington, you had a great season, but Buffs are going to pound this one out. Last second field goal FTW! CU: 38--UW: 35
Seeberg:  And here is where the potential playoff chaos begins.  A Colorado win puts them at 11-2 (comparable to 10-2 TTUN), and obviously ahead of Washington should it win.  Will the committee put the Buffs ahead of we-are-giving-them-an-inexplicable-pass-for-losing-twice-in-the-last-three-weeks TTUN squad?  Colorado lost to the Wolverines 45-28, but were leading and looking good before Liufau was sidelined with an injury.  Thankfully for the committee (and those of us who would just as soon walk blindfolded into traffic as see TTUN make the playoff), it won't be an issue.  Browning and Co. are just too good offensively to drop this one, especially on a neutral field.  Onto the #4 seed to get pasted by 'Bama for the Huskies.  CU: 27--UW: 42

AAC: Temple Owls @ Navy Midshipmen
Draper: Again, Navy looks to totally mess with bowl season as a win here puts the Group of Five representative into question...and thereby putting all minor bowls into question.  Navy has been on fire lately (I believe they punted TWICE in the month of November) and loves to just drain a game with their running attack. On the other side of the ball, I guess Temple is playing football this year...and that's cool.  I know nothing about them, but Navy is usually fun to watch.  Midshipmen represent Murika well and take down the Owls.  Temple: 20 -- Navy: 41
Hoying: I'm surprised that this one is a noon kickoff on ABC rather than on ESPN 2, 5, and 6. For the second straight season, Temple finds itself in the AAC championship game, and for the second straight season, they're going to lose. In the month of November, Navy's efficiency on offense would put the U.S. fleet to shame, as the Midshipmen took the field 40 times, scored 29 TDs and one FG, and ran out the clock 6 times. Ask Notre Dame what it's like to get ground into paste by 10 minute TD drive after 10 minute TD drive (aaaaagggghhhhh, Juice Williams flashback...). The entire bowl-seeding world may be rooting against Navy, since a win this weekend makes Army-Navy relevant for the first time since about WWII and delays the whole New Year's Six process, but Owl be surprised if the Middies don't take this one. Temple: 17--Navy: 28
Schweinfurth: I always have a soft spot for the armed forces teams (Go Air Force! 2016 Commander-In-Chief Trophy Winner). Navy runs the triple option better than anyone and no coach knows his team better than Coach Ken. Navy could get in trouble if Temple gets up by 2 TDs, but I just don't see that happening. Navy's offense keeps the game short so this won't be a total blowout in numbers terms. Navy makes the Selection Committee's job a bit more difficult (Let them play in a New Year's Six!). Temple: 10--Navy 24
Seeberg:  Hey, remember when this game was going to be Houston vs. who-gives-a-damn?  Oops.  Navy left a lot of opponents in its wake the last month of the season (#seewhatIdidthere?) and Temple is not the defense it was last year that carried the team to the conference title game, dropping a well-contested game to the Houston Hermans.  Watching Navy pulverize the now second-best golden-domer team in Notre Dame was fabulous, and this one will likely be similar.  I'd set the over/under at 9 pass attempts for Navy...and take the under.  More New Year's Six chaos abounds!  Temple: 16--Navy: 38

Big 12: Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Points and points and points.  The Sooners have been rocking since the beatdown by the Bucks but the Pokes look to throw a wrench in their rival's season (which they have done many times before).  Mike Gundy and his fantastic mullet have 2 losses (1 of which really shouldn't have counted...but it does) but they haven't faced the Sooners yet. Dede Westbrook and Baker Mayfield will continue to give opposing defenses nightmares...but the Sooner defense does the same for those in Norman.  Bob Stoops doesn't lose much in Norman, but I think the quota for OSUs beating OU in Norman has been met this year.  BOOMER!!!!  OSU: 45--OU: 55
Hoying: Has any top 10 team gotten less respect or coverage lately than the Cowboys? After a devastating loss to CMU and a disappointing showing against Baylor, the Pokes have run off 7 straight wins (and Mike Gundy's hair has run off 7 straight inches). All the Big 12 love has focused on their hated rivals in Norman, who have been putting up big points (so have the Cowboys), blowing out West Virginia (so did the Cowboys) and racking up crazy numbers at QB (so has...you get the idea). Chris Spielman has moved on to FOX (which is showing this game), but fortunately he's doing the NFL and not college, or he would weep big ol' sad dad tears watching these teams try to play defense. The winner? When in doubt, go with the home team. OSU: 48--OU: 52
Schweinfurth: Hey look, the Big-12 has a championship game a year early! The Sooners have turned it around after the pasting Ohio State put on them (mostly because Big-12 defenses are bad). This game will be a shootout for sure. Neither team really plays much defense. Mixon and Perine are just too much to handle for the Cowboys and we all know Mayfield can make plays. OSU: 49--OU: 56
Seeberg:  Unlike the B1G title game below, this one should be lots of fun to witness.  Of course watching the Sooners rip off a bunch of wins has helped the Buckeyes' cause, and in the title game/bedlam they meet a mirror image:  A team from Oklahoma with a noteworthy offense and technically a defense only because they're required to line up against opposing offenses.  The Sooners may try to outperform their insane first half against West Virginia- and they might manage it.  A turnover or two will go Boomer's way, and they will desperately hope for gargantuan amounts of chaos to sneak into the playoff.  OSU: 44--OU: 52

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators
Draper: Bama/Florida....again.  This time is different...Bama is far superior....so maybe it isn't that different from the recent past.  Saban >> any coach not named Urban so this will likely not be close.  The real question is whether UF will score...or cross the 50.  Bama may not be unbeatable, but the Gators aren't that team. I'll call the shut out because Gators suck.  Bama: 24--UF: 0
Hoying: Oh look, it's Alabama-Florida. Again. For the 9th time. Florida is still the last SEC East team to win this game...in 2008. Hmmm...who coached that team... Corch Irvin Meyers might make an appearance in the Georgia Dome this year, but not until the Peach Bowl on December 31st. In his absence, this will sure be a football game! Ala: 31--UF: 6
Schweinfurth: I'm not going into too much detail here. Florida is a mediocre team playing in a mediocre conference. Alabama has shown that they are the best team in the nation so far. This is going to get ugly quick. Bama: 35--UF: 3
Seeberg:  Alabama hasn't allowed an offensive touchdown in 17 quarters (13 against actual FBS opponents).  Florida's offense can best be described as "only mildly putrid".  This is a lousy combination for anybody sick of Saban (read:  everyone not in Tuscaloosa).  First to ten wins!  Which *sigh* will be *sigh* 'Bama *enormous sigh*.  Ala: 27--UF: 6

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Draper: Virginia Tech has been a very interesting team this year with some very nice performances followed by monster clunkers (see Syracuse).  Clemson had the traditional Clemsoning versus Pitt, but I don't expect any more.  Coach Dabo has the team hyperfocused since the Pitt loss.  I just don't see Deshaun Watson and the best WR in the country, Mike Williams, dropping another before the playoffs.  It would be FANTASTIC for #TeamChaos to have a Hokie win, but I just don't see it.  Clemson...Tigers....Clemson....Tigers   Representing the ACC! (worth your time)  Clem: 52--VT: 27
Hoying: Well, Clemson Clemsoned already against Pitt, so we can't count on that being a factor here. Unless, it's the dreaded Double Clemsoning, in which Clemson Clemsons even harder since nobody expects them to Clemson! This isn't like last year, where an explosive UNC offense had the tools to stand eye-to-eye with the Tigers and trade blows (bad calls on onside kicks notwithstanding). Much like the SEC championship, we're only here because the conference wanted another paycheck and a tiny chance of disaster befalling their last playoff hope. Won't happen. Clem: 45--VT: 20
Schweinfurth: Virginia Tech has had a resurgence! Well, okay they have beat up on some meh competition lately. I just can't look past Clemson in this game. This is the time we see Clemson play to their potential this year. the ACC Title and Playoff bid are sooo close they can taste it (which would make a second Clemsoning not surprising). Deshaun Watson just wins. This game will be close because the Hokies are playing good football right now. I just see Watson making one or two big plays late to pull it out. Clem: 35--VT: 31
Seeberg:  This is good...real good.  I'm still angry at Clemson for beating Braxton Miller and the Buckeyes that should've been playing for a national title except for some horrendous play-calling against MSU in the B1G title game that left Urban to eat cold pizza disconsolately.  Va Tech is borderline relevant again, but Clemson managed to not go all Clemson (except for NC State...and Pitt...and Troy, but they won two of those miraculously) and are in prime position for a rematch of the 2014 Orange Bowl.  Deshaun Watson woke up just in time to see himself get invited to New York again, and Clemson rolls into the playoff again.  Clem: 42--VT: 24

B1G: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: I have no clue who to pick here.  Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked by anything short of a Wisconsin offensive showcase.  There may be some playoff implications but likely not unless Washington or Clemson nosedives.  PSU has been hot as the Sun lately while Wisky keeps plodding along and rolling over their opponents with an oppressive defense.  PSU's signature win over the Buckeyes on a fluke play is one of the top wins in the country, while the Badger's premier win is over an LSU team that now has 4 (albeit good) losses.  With that being said, neither of these teams has another win worth patting themselves on the back (Iowa?...nah.)  They keep living on the 'good loss' narrative, but that's not enough to leapfrog the Buckeyes.  I hate that the Bucks aren't in this game, but the resume is simply better than either of these teams even with a win here.  What will happen? Trace McSorley and Saquan Barkley have been on fire, but the Wisky defense will rise up and do just enough for the Badger faithful to emerge with their 3rd B1G championship title game win (2 of which they were nowhere near the best team in the conference).  Enjoy Pasadena.  UW: 17--PSU: 16
Hoying: A small part of me is actually happy the Buckeyes aren't playing in this game. After such an all-consuming victory over the Crying Harbaughs, I don't know what our Bucks could've mustered on just a week's preparation. But the larger part of me is disgusted because I hate Penn State and the thought of them as Big Ten champions makes me violently ill. QB Trace McSorley and B1G Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley (lolololol) have been shredding their opponents since their get-lucky win over Ohio State, including racking up 45 against a spent Michigan State last weekend. Meanwhile, the once-impenetrable Badger D has looked oddly vulnerable in recent games against Purdue and Minnesota. I've believed all season that Wisconsin is the better team, but PSU keeps picking up steam, and I don't trust the Badgers to slow down one of the nation's best second-half comeback teams without 80,000+ strong at Camp Randall to rally them. Penn State...gets to go to the Rose Bowl to face Colorado, and freaking Michigan goes to the playoffs for a super-sexy matchup against Alabama. UW: 20--PSU:24
Schweinfurth:  So, for the record here, I have picked the Pac-12 Title game upset. That brings us to this game. The winner of this game joins OSU, Bama, and Clemson in the playoffs. Seriously. Despite both teams losing to scUM, this win will catapult the winner over the Wolverines. I have no faith in James Franklin as an in-game coach. Saquon Barkley has a banged up ankle but will play. The Badgers have faith in both QB's so Hornybrook's injury may not be an issue here. Trace McSorley is the second coming of Brady Quinn (chuck the ball as high as you can and pray a WR runs under it). That will not fly against an aggressive Badgers defense. Wisconsin puts Penn State back into their rightful place. Remember Wisconsin lost close ON THE ROAD at scUM. A decisive victory knocks the poor Harbooger back to a New Year's Six game (and yes, the tears will sustain me). UW: 35--PSU: 14
Seeberg:  This is what happens when you separate your divisions geographically and you put easily the three best teams historically (OSU, TTUN, PSU) in the same freakin' division.  Dumb conference decisions aside, this one may not be a pretty watch.  Both teams play solid D, Wiscy may also be out its starting QB, and Penn State has looked downright competent on offense the last few weeks.  Like my colleague Mr. Hoying, I believe Wisconsin is the superior team, but Penn State is the superior team right now.  All the fabulous play-calling in the world from Paul Chryst (who only has one week to prepare and doesn't have a home crowd) still won't be enough.  Lions win the Big Ten title *bleh...sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little*  UW: 17--PSU: 23


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