Friday, September 16, 2016

Week 3: Buckeyes' first test

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    4-1        (1-0 upset)

2) Hoying              6-3        (0-2 upset)
3) Draper               5-4        (2-0 upset)
3) Seeberg             5-4        (0-2 upset)


Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals
Draper: While I remember the debacle 2 play OT game Mr. Hoying refers to (and continues the pain with Wide Left III), this is a different game.  Louisville is being hyped like no other after their drubbing of Charlotte and Syracuse, but the wins are still only against Charlotte and Syracuse.  Lamar Jackson is the real deal, but he has yet to deal with the likes of Demarcus Walker and company.  To be clear, the loss of All-American Derwin James for this game is huge.  I still believe Deondre Francois, Dalvin Cook, Travis Rudolph and the rest of the Seminole offense will take care of the Cardinals.  Bobby Petrino rides his motorcycle into the sunset.  FSU: 41--Lville: 30
Hoying: Back in the magical fall of 2002, perennial juggernaut Florida State made an unlikely trip to Conference USA's Louisville and lost a thriller in the Kentucky rain (though not as heartbreaking as Wide Left just a few weeks later). The Noles haven't lost to the Cardinals since. To continue that streak, FSU is going to have to stop the young season's most potent dual-threat QB, Lamar Jackson, and the country's top offense. The Noles have put together 3 nice halves of football after pooping the bed for 30 minutes against Ole Miss, but barring an unexpected development, the Cards aren't going to be missing 14 players on Saturday like FSU's last opponent. Seminole RB Dalvin Cook should be able to find some room after a bit of tough sledding to open the season, but I don't see FSU keeping up with Jackson. FSU: 27--L'Ville: 31
Schweinfurth: Unfortunately, I only have week 1 to go off of on all of these games. With that said, Florida State needs better QB play if they are going to make a run at the playoffs. Good news for the 'Noles is that they still have a beast in Dalvin Cook. I'm not sure how I feel about Louisville, but I do believe that Florida State is the better team. The 'Noles should be able to squeak this one out. FSU: 24--L'Ville: 17
Seeberg:  Man was last week rough.  Lots of one-posession games and I whiffed on all of them.  Let's hope for better this week, starting with the game of the week #sarcasm.  College Gameday will be in Louisville for this first relevant regular season game in the history of any football program in the state of Kentucky.  Unfortunately for the home team, it's likely to be the last.  Both teams boast high-powered, balanced offensive attacks, except Louisville's balances on just one person, all-everything QB Lamar Jackson, while FSU has Dalvin Cook to help shoulder the load for their young star QB.  Louisville will test the Seminole D, but the Floridians just have too much offensive firepower.  FSU: 38--L'Ville: 28

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Ole Miss Rebels
Draper: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice.... Well, that's what Ole Miss has done to me.  Let's go for number three.  I can't see any way Bama loses this game.  Saban has his usual reloaded team with an honest to god running threat QB in Jalen Hurts.  Chad Kelly has a lot of talent on the other side as he showed in the first half against FSU, but when the Noles settled down, the Ole Miss attack lost its steam.  Bama has the horses and if they play within themselves (and don't turn it over 5 times), they make easy work of the Rebels.  The Grove will keep hope alive early, but talent wins out as it did on Labor Day.  Bama: 41--Ole Miss: 24
Hoying: Does Ole Miss have the horses to finish a game against a top opponent? The Rebels seemed to be in FSU's head, stymieing Dalvin Cook and the rest of the Noles before utterly collapsing late on both sides of the ball. And both sides of the ball happens to be what Alabama does best, year in and year out. Except against Ole Miss for some reason. The established QB in this matchup may be wearing the home red and blue, but the Landsharks of yesterday are no more. The Tide's superior line play should decide this one. Bama: 38--Ole Miss: 20
Schweinfurth: Ole Miss had a mass talent exodus over the last year. Add in the distractions with the NCAA investigations and Ole Miss is a mess right now. The Rebels beat the Tide last year, but Nick Saban coached teams do not lose to a team two years in a row. Saban is very good at getting the most out of his guys in revenge games (threatening boxes of puppies?) and it will show. As much as I hate to admit it, Bama looks like one of the best teams again this year and should win this one with ease. Bama: 35--Ole Miss: 14
Seeberg:  This one's pretty simple:  If Nick Saban loses three straight to the same team, an aneurysm is distinctly possible.  As amusing as that might be to, well, the entire college football lanscape outside Tuscaloosa, it isn't going to happen.  Bama: 31--Ole Miss: 17

Michigan State Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Talk about a team everyone has already forgotten about.  Dantonio and company enter South Bend after returning (in theory) to their little brother status in public perception.  Harbaught and Meyer dominate the Big Ten talk and no one remembers last year's champion Spartans.  I've watch very little MSU this year, but I've been unimpressed with what I've seen.  The Irish look like they have some talent but it was mismanaged in Texas.  I don't think Texas is a good as they're being touted, but playing a tough road game to start the season with the uncertainty at QB give ND a little pass.  Kizer and Equanimeous St. Brown (talk about a name) have looked fantastic and I think they'll open up the 'No Fly Zone'.  Back to number 3 MSU, it was fun while it lasted.  MSU: 17--ND: 31
Hoying: Time for the post-Connor Cook era to start in earnest for the Spartans. Oh, sure, they point up a dazzling 28 points against some D&D players on a Friday night, but the confines of South Bend won't be nearly as friendly. Nobody would be surprised to see MSU take a step backwards after 3 outstanding seasons, but the bigger questions surround the home team. Is Texas really back or did Notre Dame just decide to gag away their opening game? Are the Irish back to putting the ND in No Defense? How about that platooning quarterback system (so near and dear to the hearts of Buckeye Nation)? Sparty always seems to win when it's faced with a lack of respect, but the gap between the offenses will be too much to overcome. MSU: 24--ND: 27
Schweinfurth: We finally get to see what Dantonio has been rebuilding up in East Lansing. Is this one of the B1G's best teams or is it a true rebuild year for Sparty. The Irish already have their backs against the wall after the loss to Texas, and a loss here would end any talk of playoffs around the Golden Dome. I just feel that Michigan State lost too much last year to be able to stop an offense like Notre Dame. MSU: 24--ND: 31
Seeberg:  We've learned two things about the golden domers thus far this season:  1.)  They can score.  A lot.  2.)  They might not be able to stop anyone with a half-legitimate offense.  Texas hung 50 on them (granted it took an OT or two).  Michigan State, meanwhile, looked awful against mighty Furman (?) in week one but have had two weeks to prep for this game.  I don't see the Spartans scoring a ton, but I doubt they'll give up 47 (37 in regulation) like Texas did.  Still, Sparty just won't be able to muster enough offense to pull this one from the fire.  MSU: 17--ND: 23

THE Ohio State Buckeye @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: The Bucks get their first test entering the unfriendly confines of Norman, OK, where Bob Stoops and his Sooners have a sizable advantage.  The Bucks haven't missed a step even with all that talent going to the NFL in weeks 1 and 2, but the Sooners are another monster.  Can the young Bucks handle the road pressure against a very good team?  The mystique has been tarnished a bit by the Fighting Tom Hermans of Houston but this OU team is very good led by Baker Mayfield, Samadji Perine, and Joe Mixon.  The Bullets must slow down the vaunted Sooner attack to have a chance, and they should look no further than Houston's gameplan.  Going into the season, I was leaning OU, but Urban has better players than Houston and should work to replicate the result.  It may be more heart than head, but JT takes control and wrecks the Sooner Schooners playoff dreams.  OSU: 35--OU: 31
Hoying: Young Buckeye team gets first big test. In 2014, that was 6-6 Virginia Tech, at home, and OSU looked completely lost. The young Bucks have shown flashes of brilliance in early going, but the offense also sputtered to a halt against a lackluster Tulsa defense. Oklahoma will not be nearly as forgiving on either side of the ball, particularly with Baker Mayfield slinging the rock and Samaje Perine scampering all over the field. I think the Buckeye D will be up to the task, for the most part, and there's no reason to expect JT to be as rattled as he was that horrible night against VT, but what about the line play? The DL got no push against Bowling Green, and the OL is still largely untested. I think Barrett will be running for his life more often than not, which means he'll need to make something special happen downfield in order to keep the Sooners honest. I don't see Devin Smith taking the field for the Scarlet and Gray, so this one could come down to the play of Noah Brown. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be quite magical enough. A loss this early (and out of conference) isn't a killer, but the fight for the playoffs will be uphill from this point onward. Good. OSU: 28--OU: 31
Schweinfurth: This is the game we have been waiting for since January. Baker Mayfield is the real deal at QB and I am worried about the OSU Defense after last week. Tulsa spread the field and had fairly good success with a "just a guy" at running back. Oklahoma has a beast of a two headed monster in Perine and Mixon. I do believe that the Silver Bullets will get a few stops and maybe even a pick from Hooker (keep the streak) but I don't see another pick 6 in this game. On the other side, the offense has to get a better push from the O-Line to keep the chains moving. JT needs to connect with the receivers as well. A one dimensional OSU squad will get crushed in this game. It's a big game, and we all know how Big Game Bob's teams perform in the spotlight (hint, not well). Bucks win in a thriller. OSU: 38--OU: 35
Seeberg:  We all had this one circled on the calendar...at least until our favorite former offensive coordinator and his Cougars dumptrucked the Sooners in week one.  Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Baker Mayfield and Co. responded by putting nearly 60 on their bye-week-like opponent last week to vent their frustrations.  With just two games under our belt, I've decided I trust this 2016 version of the OSU offense to score reasonably well on just about anyone, barring a biblical rainstorm.  However, I'm not 100% sold on the silver bullets yet.  Malik Hooker looks like a world beater, but receivers have consistently gotten separation, and the opposing quarterback in this game can actually hit them.  The O keeps it close, but the Sooners take it late.  OSU: 35--OU: 41

Upset Special
Draper: Missouri over Georgia
Hoying: North Dakota State over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Oregon (Nebraska is favored)
Seeberg:  DARN YOU HOYING...Fine, Colorado over TTUN  

Monday, September 12, 2016

Grading the Bucks -- Week 2: Tulsa

Before I get to the grades for the this week, I want to make a slight change.  The loyal readers (reader?) of the letsgobucks posts mentioned I was overly harsh last week in grading the statistical record performance of the Buckeyes.  After reviewing the tape and considering the case, I have decided that I did indeed make errors in judgement.  Unlike the MAC officials in Stillwater this weekend, I'm going to change the results after the fact because it's hard to have anywhere to go while grading last week harshly.  The performance wasn't perfect last week but it was darn near perfect.  With that in mind, I am upgrading all units to an A for week one vs. BG.  Offense had one bad play which shouldn't curtail a nearly flawless game, the defense gave up 3 points, special teams was great (careful Dontre), and coaching was fine. 

On to Tulsa, this game started sloppy but still, not a whole lot of beef going into Norman.

Offense: B+ (general), A- (considering conditions)
The first half was brutal.  There was no downfield threat which allowed the box-stuffing by Tulsa and keeping Mike Weber in check.  I'm willing to chalk that up to the conditions and the wind.  Still the first half offense was bland and uninspired.  The second half was a different story.  Once this team starts clicking, there is very little that can stop it. Samuel, Barrett, and Weber all seemed to turn the page when the monsoon stopped and Tulsa had no answer.  The O-line wasn't a solid this week, but still played quite well.

Defense: A
6 turnovers including 2 pick sixes when the offense was held in check? Yes please, more of that.  Not to mention the goalline stand when Tulsa looked to take an early lead.  Malik Hooker bated the QB like crazy on his pick 6 (watch the replay, you can see it coming).  The D-line started to get a push as the game progressed which is always a positive.  Overall, other than the first FG drive, the defense was nearly perfect.  

Special Teams: A
Tyler Durbin hit his first 2 FG attempts which is always nice.  Cameron Johnston got some trash talking in there.  My heart leapt in my chest when a kickoff almost went out of bounds, but disaster was averted.  No issues here.

Coaching: B+
Again, the lack of a down-field passing game was bothersome, but the weather might have been the reason.  Also, there's a chance Urban didn't want to tip his hand to Bob Stoops.  I expect a much more dynamic offensive gameplan next week.  Defensively there is again little to nothing to comment on.  Keep the train rolling.

Overall: A-
Not quite the level of last week, but a blowout none-the-less.  Next week, everything ramps up to 11.  That's when we find out what these young studs are capable of on the field.  BG and Tulsa beatdowns at home are one thing, the Sooners are the first real test.