Week 10: The SEC West game actually matters this week!

Standings

1) Schweinfurth    23-10        (5-3 upset)

2) Hoying              26-12        (4-5 upset)

3) Draper               25-13        (2-7 upset)

4) Seeberg             23-15       (3-6 upset)

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: I really...REALLY want to pick this upset.  Coach O has the Tigers rolling to the point that they are playing (almost) to the level of the talent on the roster. Before the season started, this game was circled as the marquee game of the year--and much of that hasn't changed.  Fornette fell flat in last year's matchup, but he's a special special player.  The problem is that Bama's defense is amazingly good this year.  Jonathan Allen is a beast in the middle and no one gets his team ready for a big game quite like Nick Saban.  LSU's main problem is that Bama's defense is designed to combat a pro-style offense...which is what the Bayou Bengals run.  The horses on the defensive side for LSU are very very good, but Jalen Hurts will do just enough to keep the Tide rolling.  Many people wrote the Tigers off, but they wil make this close to the very end.  CUBS AIN'T PLAYED NOBODY, PAAAWWWWLLL!!  WE WANT THE WORLD SERIES TOO!!! Bama: 31 -- LSU: 27

Hoying: Whew, LSU finally dumped their mediocre coach that was holding their offense back all these years. Or...did they? Sure, things looked bad when the Tigers were 2-2 and scoring a total of 27 points in their 2 losses. But now, Wisconsin and Auburn are sitting at #8 and #9 in the rankings, and have two of the top 10 scoring defenses in the nation. A freak hurricane has deprived us of Florida-LSU, which would have been our only real data point for Coach Eaux's newly-discovered offensive juggernaut. I think it's a mirage. But it really doesn't matter either way. The Tide had a 30 minute brain fart against Ole Miss but has been absolutely untouchable otherwise. Bama might yet lose a regular season game, but not this one. Bama: 28--LSU: 13

Schweinfurth: Ed Ogeron is some sort of miracle worker. The guy takes over an underperforming USC team a few years ago and they begin to look like a decent team. The same can be said for his work at LSU, and it looks like the team is beginning to have fun again. I still don't believe LSU is very good. Alabama has looked near unstoppable so far this year. I don't see anything that will change that fact. Bama wins this one fairly convincingly. Bama: 35--LSU: 14
Seeberg:  Don't look now folks, but Bama's SEC nemesis not named Ole Miss is playing decent ball.  The Tigers are clearly sapping our Buckeyes' offensive mojo to the tune of 42.5 ppg since the Mad Hatter departed.  Oh, AND they have two weeks to prepare, so at least the Bucks aren't the only ones who can grumble about a schedule oddly stacked in opponents' favors.  All those factors, plus a home atmosphere, will certainly keep this one close.  Unfortunately for the underdog, the Tide now have 3 weeks of game film to study the upgraded offense, and we saw what happened after OSU had 3 weeks of game film out for the world to see.  Bama, again, sadly, ad nauseam, pulls away late.  Bama: 31--LSU: 20

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Draper: Penn State entered the initial playoff rankings at a surprising #12.  Let's be real, they beat the Bucks which is great, but #12? C'mon man.  Good thing they get the dumpster fire Hawkeyes...not so fast my friend.  Iowa entered the year as a clear B1G West favorite (so, you know, 2nd place in the MAC), but have fallen flat.  I think the Hawkeyes still have horses to hang with most teams but Ferentz is too busy counting money to be bothered by coaching.  Let's not forget that Penn State still has James Franklin at the helm...so Tweedle Dee vs. Tweedle Dum on the sidelines.  Here's the deal: if Iowa wants to do something this year, this may be the last hurrah before Nebraska (don't see them beating the Wolverines).  It's a night game in Happy Valley which certainly moves the needle, but the fans won't be as rabid as 2 weeks ago.  I'm going with the upset (mainly because I want it and see this as the last real game for the Lions to lose).  Iowa: 17 -- PSU: 13

Hoying: This one's on prime time on Big Ten Network, so you know it's a barnburner. OK, we're not fooling anyone, but do you have any idea the games we passed over so that we could pick this masterpiece for you? Did you know that TCU plays Baylor this week? That game mattered a whole lot 2 years ago. It might've meant something this year if Baylor could stop Texas on a drive or two or stopped scheduling Texas high school teams. At any rate, Penn State is white-hot right now, and Iowa is enjoying a nice correction after last year's bizarre aberration. I wouldn't count on the Lions losing anytime soon. *sigh* Go Blue. Iowa: 13--PSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Here's my #hottake for the year, this game will not be high scoring. Penn State got lucky the Buckeyes had a total meltdown and then struggled for awhile against lowly Purdue. Iowa's offense has looked like hot garbage almost all year. I'll take PSU at home, but first touchdown wins. Iowa: 9--PSU: 10
Seeberg:  Wow, the committee REALLY respects the Buckeyes if Penn State can vault all the way to #12 despite a rough loss to Pitt and a dump trucking by the Wolverines.  Technically, both of these teams have a shot at a division title (then again, everyone has a shot in the west not named Purdue or Illinois), so there is something to play for.  I personally think this is a pretty even game under normal conditions, but we've seen what a drunken night crowd in Happy Valley is capable of, good and bad.  Penn State shook off the letdown after a lousy first half to smash the Boilers, and even a lousy first half at home against Iowa won't be enough to cost them.  Roar Lions Roar.  Iowa: 16--PSU: 27

NO OTHER GAMES THIS WEEK ARE GOOD. THIS STATEMENT IS NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY ANYTHING ABOUT THE GAME ABOVE.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Draper: I think the ship has sailed on this Buckeye team bashing good teams to the ground, but that doesn't mean this team isn't incredibly talented and shouldn't take care of business.  The last 2 weeks have shown Buckeye squads who seemed disinterested and that's very troubling as a fan.  The team seems to believe they are entitled to the win simply due to wearing the scarlet and gray.  That isn't the way things work.  I'm hoping we finally see a return of that raw emotion and pride we saw with the young Bucks in Norman.  OSU is far more talented than the Huskers and it's time to show it.  The coaches will renew the commitment to the run by actually running on 1st down sometimes and drop in some of those intermediate and deep passes when needed.  This is a true 'sac-up' game.  JT throws for 200+ (but he's much more efficient) and the ground game overpowers the 'Blackshirts' to the tune of 300 yards.  The defensive secondary also returns to form by shutting down Tommy Armstrong and forcing two picks.  Even with all that, it's not a blow out, but a comfortable Buckeye win over a top ten foe.  Fans: let's wake up a bit before the 4th quarter this week.  Neb: 17 -- OSU: 28

Hoying: The good news is the playoff committee hasn't given up on the Buckeyes. The bad news is that Buckeye Nation has. In 2002, the Bucks won 6 of their last 7 games by a touchdown or less. In 2014, Ohio State followed an impressive win in East Lansing by bizarre lackluster displays against Minnesota, Indiana, and a bad Michigan team. Yeah, I'd like to win every game by 50, too, but the pieces are still in place. Just don't ask anyone named Damon to do too much on defense, but do ask a WR to make a play every other drive or so. As for their opponent, the most impressive thing Nebraska has done this season is lose to Wisconsin (or their practice squad, I couldn't tell with the uniform similarity). I'll see that and raise you a gusty overtime victory. Sorry for the string bet. Neb: 20--OSU: 31

Schweinfurth: It is time for the wide receiver room to man up. We keep hearing about all the talent, but it hasn't manifested itself outside of Noah Brown at Oklahoma. The rotation is good in theory but you have to keep your best players on the field. That means more KJ Hill and Terry McLauren and less Paris Campbell. The good news for the Buckeyes is that Nebraska has been more one dimensional than OSU this year. I fully expect the secondary to have a field day against Armstrong. These guys are due for a few turnovers. Again, I think Nebraska will move the ball and put up a few scores, but Ohio State continues to grow as a team. Time to come together and just be the best team on the field every Saturday. Neb: 17--OSU: 35
Seeberg:  I hate to say I told you so, but...expectations must be adjusted to where we thought this team would be at the beginning of September, not the end.  The O-line has holes, the WRs can't get separation, McMillan is being keyed on by opposing offenses and his productivity has fallen, and after Conley, Lattimore and Hooker, the DBs are a liability as well.  In comes Nebraska, off a respectable showing in Madison, coming back from 17-7 down in the 4th quarter to force OT before falling.  The Huskers have the ability to give our once-potent offense some issues, but offensively they have issues of their own.  They haven't managed more than three touchdowns against any B1G foe except Illinois who hardly qualifies.  A two-TD win against a top 10 opponent is nothing to sneeze at, and given the way the Bucks are currently trending, it would be a step in the right direction.  Neb: 13--OSU: 27

Upset Special

Draper: Cal over Washington

Hoying: NC State over Florida State

Schweinfurth: Georgia Tech over North Carolina
Seeberg:  TCU over Baylor

Grading the Bucks: Week 9 -- Northwestern

A win is a win, right?....RIGHT?!?!

Offense: C-
MVP: Noah Brown (just for the awesome block on JT's game sealing run)
Something just isn't right.  The line has been questionable, there is zero threat of a downfield passing game, and the playcalling is baffling.  The line was better than the game against PSU, but JT seemed to look to the flat immediately on every play.  Also, while the running game wasn't terrible, the explosion from earlier in the year just isn't there.  Maybe that's caused by the defenses being stronger, but it appears to be more than that.  Watching the game from the band's seats last week, I see that the receivers are simply getting no separation which allows the safeties/linebackers to cheat up and support the run. If the receivers can't develop into a semblance of a threat downfield (even if it's 5-10 yards downfield), this year can go south quickly.

Defense: C
MVP: Malik Hooker
Versus PSU, the defense held up their end other than 2 drives.  This week, the dink-and-dunk/rub routes just gave the team fits.  Credit to the coaches at Northwestern for identifying a scheme to accentuate the lesser talent of the team.  Nerdwestern was able to identify the alignment of the defense and run short plays to defeat the look (slant/quick in or out vs. man and finding the holes in the zone).  There was no pressure on Clayton Thorson most of the game which was concerning with the size differential on the line. The biggest issue with the Buckeye defense that MUST be fixed going forward is the atrocious 3rd down conversion rate.  The Cats converted a frustrating FOUR 3rd downs on their final drive (2 of which were 3rd and long).  With the game on the line and so many chances at getting off the field, the defense needs to rise up and take control of a lesser opponent.  They bent but didn't break on the final drive, but they shouldn't have bent that far....at home...against Northwestern.

Special Teams: C-
MVP: none
Cameron Johnston wasn't right.  His last punt was a nice 9 iron inside the 10, but the few he had early on were simply atrocious.  I'm guessing the block is still in his head from last week.  The kick return/coverage and punt return/coverage has been less than enthralling.  Last year (and at points this year), the return game was a momentum generator in key points by tackling the opponent short of the 25.  That seems to be gone as most kicks have resulted in a positive return.  I give credit to Durbin for kicking well, but the special units were a net (slight) negative.

Coaching: D+
Once again, I (and most of Buckeye Nation) just don't get it.  The offensive playcalling has become stagnant and predictable.  There is no fire; no tempo; no excitement.  When the reverse/end around went to Parris Campbell early on, there was some explosion and fun.  After that, you could essentially intuit what play was coming....swing pass behind the line.  I'm very concerned with the lack of running on first down.  It appeared that Urban wanted to make a point and work on the passing game...but they didn't work on anything but the checkdown to the RB in the flat every single time.  NW knew what was coming and it set us up in 2nd and 3rd and long too often, when the Buckeye's options were very limited.  Defensively, the Wildcats provide a problem for traditional offenses (kind of like the Princeton offense in basketball) where they just slowly bleed you to death. I was surprised there wasn't more pressure by the defensive front.

Overall: C-
Let's be real: this was not a great game.  Northwestern may be better than most think, but they are 4 point dogs to the Buckeyes in their house.  There was no excuse for the Buckeye offense to not have more success.  These issues need to be fixed and soon.  Nebraska comes to town this week, and there is no room for error.