Week 12: It's SEC FCS WEEK Y'ALL!!

Standings

1) Hoying              32-13        (4-7 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    28-12        (5-5 upset)

3) Draper               30-15        (3-8 upset)

4) Seeberg             27-18       (4-7 upset)

Washington State Cougars @ Colorado Buffaloes

Draper: I love me some crazy Mike Leach.  Wazzu has once again crapped themselves in the early game vs a FCS opponent but then has exploded with an undefeated Pac12 slate.  Luke Falk has run the air raid wonderfully and has the Cougars set up to face the Huskies for the Pac12 North regardless of this game.  Colorado sits at 10 in the CFP rankings but their best win is against...yeah, I don't know either.  Boulder will be rocking but give me crazy genius all day.  Wazzu sets up a HUGE Apple Cup game next week.  WSU: 34 -- CU: 21
Hoying: Ah, a classic Pac-12 matchup: great offense vs. great...defense? You wouldn't think importing a team from the Big 12 would do anything for your conference's defensive prowess, but, nonetheless, Colorado is straight-up shutting down opponents, including giving up all of 5 points to Stanford. Taking care of Wazzu QB Luke Falk will be a taller order, as the Cougars have been very impressive since opening the season with losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State. They do struggle a bit on the road (except at Stanford, but that doesn't count because Stanford has no fans), and I like the Buffs D to close it out at Folsom Field. WSU: 24--CU: 27

Schweinfurth: So, I'm going out on a limb here are say that both of these teams (and all of the Pac12 for that matter) are fake good. Washington State can put up points. Colorado has beaten no one. Typical no defense Pac12 shootout. WSU: 42--CU: 35

Seeberg:  Anybody have Washington State vs. Colorado as the best Pac-12 matchup this year?  LIAR.  In any event, the Cougars are riding an eight-game winning streak...after dropping games to an FCS team and Boise State.  Colorado, meanwhile, played TTUN and USC tough, both on the road, before losing.  In short, I trust the Buffaloes (particularly at home where they are prone to get extra downs) more than the Cougars.  WSU: 27--CU: 35

Louisville Cardinals @ Houston Cougars

Draper: This was purported as the only game of consequence remaining on Louisville's schedule and it looks like it will be...but Houston didn't the Cardinals any favors by losing to Navy (not a big deal) and SMU (woof).  Louisville has been playing with fire in their last few games (don't let the final score last week fool you) and Houston is still a very talented team.  Greg Ward won't outperform the Heisman winner (yeah, it's done), but he and the Cougars will give Louisville all they can handle.  I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Herman gets a signature win to catapult his name back up the 'hot coaches to hire' scale.  Cardinals are spending too much time worrying about their playoff standing and get bit.  UL: 41 -- Hou: 45
Hoying: Houston may have played their way out of a New Year's Six bowl but they still have a shot at their biggest season since the Southwest Conference disbanded in 1996. We've already seen what the Cougars can do at home against a top-5 team, and one can only assume that starting the day after the Oklahoma game, Tom Herman has been focusing his big ol' brain on the Cardinals (he sure wasn't getting ready for SMU). Yeah, yeah, Louisville plays in the good ACC and Houston plays in the bad AAC, but the Cards haven't been exactly been playing world beaters week-to-week. Much like Houston, they scored a big win early and they've been coasting ever since. Time for the wheels to finally fall off. UL: 38--41

Schweinfurth: This game will have lots, and lots of offense. It really is too bad that Houston fell of the map midway through the year, because this is going to be fun. Louisville has defeated exactly 1 top 25 team and have lost to the only other elite team they played. Houston has actually beaten a team with a pulse. Louisville has been playing to the level of their competition and it could bite them if they take a peak at Houston's record. Touchdown Tom, the top MENSA man in college football will shut the Cardinals up and remove them from the CFP picture. UL: 42--Hou: 49 

Seeberg:  This one had a lot of intrigue for the first few weeks of the season.  Could the Houston Hermans, after beating Oklahoma week one, actually win this one too and get into the playoff??  Two losses later, and this one is now about Louisville keeping it's slim playoff hopes alive.  I don't expect a whole lot of defense in this one, so get your popcorn ready kids.  Houston had a lot to play for week one, but that motivation waned and is now in favor of the Cardinals.  The Ville wins a shootout.  UL: 52--HOU: 42

Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers

Draper: OU keeps rolling in the Big12 (defense is optional) Conference.  Dede Westbrook has been fantastic all year as have Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, and to a lesser extent, Baker Mayfield.  This is gonna be a crazy shootout type game (i.e., Big12 day in the park), but WVU simply doesn't have the horses to keep up.  Holgo will make sure the points will flow in Morgantown, and the environment will be crazy, but the Sooners talent is simply better and will carry the day.  Take the over.  OU: 52 -- WVU: 42

Hoying: Other than the obvious, this is probably the biggest game of the week for Ohio State's playoff hopes other than Penn State - Rutgers. West Virginia keeps lurking around ready to leapfrog our Bucks if they can win out and claim "One True Champion" status. An Oklahoma win would all but eliminate the Big 12 from playoff contention and boost OSU's resume in the process. But enough of what we want to happen; what's going to happen? Here's a hot take, the Sooner D isn't going to be stopping Skyler Howard and the West Virginia offense very much. Urban wasn't kidding when he said Indiana's defense was the best OSU had faced to that point. But can Baker Mayfield and OU's version of Curtis Samuel, Joe Mixon, keep pace? Not in the unfriendly confines of Morgantown. WVU keeps the dream of a late playoff push alive. OU: 31--WVU: 41

Schweinfurth: I love all of the howling coming from West Virginia about their ranking this week. Here's a wild idea, play a tougher schedule and win your games. Oklahoma seems to have found their groove after getting whooped at home in three. Big Game Bob remembered that he has two elite running backs in Mixon and Perine and has been putting them in better positions to succeed. Perine and Mixon should be able to run over the Mountaineers. OU: 49--WVU: 35

Seeberg:  Let's be real Buckeye Nation, it's beneficial for us to have the Sooners keep winning, so picking the Sooners is what our collective heart wants.  However, despite just one loss, West Virginia has done very little to prove they belong with the big boys this season, dropping their only game against a ranked team (Oklahoma State) and looking pretty lousy in the process.  Meanwhile, non-big-game Bob Stoops has actually rallied the Sooners back to a top 10 team after being demolished at home by the Buckeyes in week three.  The home crowd may keep it close, but the Sooners are rolling too well on offense to drop this one. OU: 45--WVU: 34 

Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers

Draper: Coach O has the locker room and the team has really come together.  Yes, they lost to Bama but performed quite well on defense.  Florida is just like Bama....you know, without the good offense or stifling defense.  Yeah the Gators have come good corners and decent defense, but the offense is poop and LSU is truly playing for their coach.  I hope Orgeron gets the job because he truly seems like he cares about the players and they return the love.  I'm glad this game happens this weekend for 2 reasons: 1) 2 fewer stupid SEC/FCS matchups, 2) Should soften UF up a bit...I think they have a game next week.  UF: 10 -- LSU: 24
Hoying: Ewwwwww, there's an SEC East team in our picks. Well, better get this over with. Florida's defense has been enjoying a great year, except when they got lit up in Fayetteville against Woo Pig U. LSU's D has been better, allowing 16, 18, and 10 points in 3 tough losses. Look for this game to feature about 24 punts and be over in about 2 hours (be thankful it's not on CBS or it would stretch for the standard 4). And when the dust settles, I guess LSU will have scored? UF: 0--LSU: 6

Schweinfurth: Both of these teams are not good. Now that I have cleared the air, Florida has no offense and LSU has looked competent since Les moved on to making lawn clipping smoothies. LSU will win, but it won't matter in the grand scheme of things. UF: 14--LSU: 20
Seeberg:  This game is likely to be a LARGE departure from the games we have picked above (read:  NO OFFENSE).  It's a recipe for an ugly game to watch with solid defenses and meh (at best) offenses.  LSU almost made 0 points stand up against Bama for 3.5 quarters.  Florida's offense is much, much worse than the Tide's.  First to double digits wins!  UF: 9--LSU: 17

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: Urban Meyer has lost 3 games to B1G opponents since he's been at OSU...and 2 of them were to the Spartans.  Something about the green and white seems to make the coaches at OSU forget what they're doing.  This year may be a tougher sell (to choke), but it's something to be concerned about.  The new focused coaching philosophy of taking each week as the entire season seems to have paid dividends over the last few weeks.  A noon kickoff is huge for OSU as the environment shouldn't be an issue.  I expect a very business like game in which the Buckeyes try to shorten the game and get out with a comfortable win--which I think they will.  JT and the backfield keep it simple and have nice games on the ground without any bells and whistles.  Defense teaches Tyler OConner that while he got the best of us last year, there are consequences.  Bucks keep moving and prepare for The Game.  OSU: 34 -- MSU: 17
Hoying: If Wisconsin is the fun rivalry, and Penn State is the must-win rivalry, and Michigan, is well, Michigan, then this one is the bizarre snakebite rivalry. I hesitate to even label it a rivalry since Ohio State is always favored to win it, but unlike Indiana, Michigan State actually beats us from time to time, usually at the most devastating moment possible. As Eleven Warriors pointed out, Ohio State has faced Michigan State in November or later while ranked #5 or higher 7 times, and have won twice. Twice! Another fun fact: the last home team that won in this series went on to make an improbable appearance in the national championship game during the last CHAOS SEASON: 2007. Will the streak end? I don't see it happening. MSU is just plain bad this year,. While they still have the pieces in place to take this series to the next level by adding a new biggest upset to a list of pretty big upsets, Ohio State is back in Urban November form. They may not be the green team, but you wouldn't like them when they're angry. OSU: 31--MSU: 23

Schweinfurth: REVENGE!!! That's what I want. I don't care that the Spartans are having a down year. They should be treated as the team that ruined your playoff chance last year, and that demon needs to be excised. I really hope that Meyer has learned from that game and doesn't go into a predicable "bad weather" shell. Ohio State will win this game on talent alone. Sparty will hang around in the first half, as is their MO this year, but the Bucks pull away after some epic SPARTY NO! meltdowns in the third quarter. Go Bucks Beat That State Up North! OSU: 42--MSU: 13

Seeberg:  I have to be honest with you, Buckeye Nation, I don't give a rat's rear end what MSU's record is, I'm still highly concerned about this game.  We coached ourselves out of a playoff appearance in this one last year, and the circumstances are eerily similar this year:  Heavily favored OSU team, lousy weather forecast (wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH in East Lansing) that could cause a painfully conservative game plan, MSU team with nothing to lose, etc.  Sparty showed up against ttun, losing by just nine, and a similar effort is likely this weekend.  The only things that give me solace are the fact that Sparty is without DT Malik McDowell and is also shuffling their O-line due to injury...that and Curtis Samuel.  Keep #4 involved (preferably more in the running game for that 1000/1000 season) and hopefully this one will be no longer in question by the fourth quarter.  OSU: 38--MSU: 17

Upset Special (Please don't pick lame upsets like OkSt over TCU)

Draper: Indiana over Michigan
Hoying: California over Stanford (sorry not sorry, Stanford band)

Schweinfurth: UCLA over USC

Seeberg:  UTSA over Texas A&M (seriously, they're still ranked and I'm just angry about it)

Heart over Head upset: GO RUTGERS!!!!!

Let's Go Bucks: Top 25 and Heisman Ballot

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave us a comment and tell us who should've fallen farther after losing.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Alabama
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Michigan
5. Louisville
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Oklahoma
8. Penn State
10. West Virginia
11. Utah
12. Colorado
13. USC
14. Oklahoma State
15. Nebraska
16. LSU
17. Western Michigan
18. Florida State
19. Auburn
20. Washington State
21. Boise State
22. Florida
23. Tennessee
24. San Diego State
25. Texas A&M

Others receiving votes: Houston, Stanford, Troy, North Carolina

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. J.T. Barrett (QB -- OSU)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clem)


Draper

Top 25
1. Bama
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Michigan
5. Louisville
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Oklahoma
9. Penn State
10. Oklahoma State
11. West Virginia
12. Colorado
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Utah
16. Western Michigan
17. Nebraska
18. Washington State
19. Florida State
20. Texas A&M
21. Auburn
22. Florida
23. Boise State
24. San Diego State
25. Houston

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL) (Winner)
2. J.T. Barrett (QB -- OSU)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clem)


Hoying

Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Michigan
5. Washington
6. Wisconsin
7. Louisville
8. USC
9. West Virginia
10. Penn State
11. Utah
12. Nebraska
13. Tennessee
14. Oklahoma
15. Oklahoma State
16. Colorado
17. LSU
18. Auburn
19. Florida
20. Western Michigan
21. Boise State
22. Washington State
23. Stanford
24. Florida State
25. Houston

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. D'Onta Foreman (RB -- Texas)
3. Deshaun Watson (QB -- Clemson)


Schweinfurth

Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Louisville
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Oklahoma
9. Penn State
10. West Virginia
11. Utah
12. Western Michigan
13. Colorado
14. Oklahoma State
15. USC
16. Florida State
17. Nebraska
18. Washington State
19. Auburn
20. LSU
21. Boise State
22. San Diego State
23. Florida
24. Troy
25. North Carolina

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. Jake Browning (QB -- UW)
3. Curtis Samuel (RB -- OSU)


Seeberg

Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Louisville
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Oklahoma
9. West Virginia
10. Penn State
11. Colorado
12. Utah
13. Florida State
14. Nebraska
15. Oklahoma State
16. LSU
17. USC
18. Boise State
19. Auburn
20. Western Michigan
21. Washington State
22. Florida
23. Houston
24. San Diego State
25. North Carolina

Heisman Ballot
1. Lamar Jackson (QB -- UL)
2. Doesn't Really Matter (Deshaun Watson)
3. Doesn't Matter Whatsoever (J.T. Barrett)

Grading the Bucks -- Week 11: Maryland

Don't let the rosy talk fool you Buckeye fans.  This week was really, REALLY bad for Ohio State.  Let's look at this drubbing and focus on what we can control at this point.

Offense: A
MVP: Curtis Samuel/J.T. Barrett
This went about as expected.  J.T. was on fire and Curtis scored on 1/3 of his touches.  We simply didn't need to exert ourselves to dominate this team.  Pretty much every unit was clicking.  J.T. was hitting the underneath routes well as well as a few downfield strikes.  Weber and Samuel ran with ease and the O-line had no issues.  Hard to critique another 62-3 win when it could have been so much worse.  The younguns even looked pretty good when they got it which is nice for the future although there's a lot of youth in the starting lineup that won't be relinquishing that position soon.  McCall is showing that while Weber and Samuel have been fantastic all year, he deserves some looks as well with the starting unit.  The RB position is immensely deep.

Defense: A
MVP: All
Who to single out? It was hard to pay attention to the game after 10 minutes because the disparity in talent and execution was so great that there was nothing more to gain from breaking the tape down.  The line was all over the Maryland QB du jour and the secondary was ball-hawking like crazy.  I've gushed about this unit enough in the past few weeks so no need to go deeper.  There was little to nothing to be concerned about here.

Special Teams: A
No missed kicks; good coverage; good returns and most importantly NO FUMBLES!!  Johnston actually need to punt this week (which was odd) but the unit was fine.

Coaches: A
Remember when I said Victor would catch a TD and J.T. would get back to being a weapon in the running game? Looks like the coaches are avid readers.  I loved the playcalling this week because they tried (and succeeded) with pretty much everything.  The playbook was open and everything was clicking.  The gameplan to stop Maryland was obviously sound and this team looked like they were on a mission.

Overall: A
We beat Maryland...yay.  Keep the train rolling and root for a Rutgers miracle!

Playoffs?!? DO Talk About Playoffs!

Losing hurts. Depending on when the loss is and who gives you the loss, it can hurt a lot more.

For the second year in a row, a great Ohio State team lost to the exact wrong team at the exact wrong time. And for the second year in a row, our hated rivals crapped the bed at a most inopportune moment, just to spite us. And, for the second year in a row, it looks like the Buckeyes won’t be going to Indianapolis to play for the Big Ten championship, barring an unlikely Penn State loss to Rutgers next week Michigan State two weeks from now.

Unfortunately, this makes it very likely that, for the second year in a row, Ohio State will not be playing on New Year’s Eve for a shot at the National Championship. And so, for the second year in a row, I’m going to grasp at straws.

Fortunately, there’s a bit more substance on which to build a foolish hope this year, thanks to Ohio State’s dynamite resume and a great deal more chaos at the top.

What We Know about the Playoff Committee

1.  The committee likes teams that win their conference (see #6 Stanford, #7 Ohio State in final 2015 rankings).

2.  The committee likes teams that win conference championship games (see #4 Ohio State, #5 Baylor in the final 2014 rankings).

3.  The committee likes teams that play in conference championship games (see #5 Iowa, #7 Ohio State in final 2015 rankings).

4.  The committee is not afraid to put a team with a worse record ahead of a team with a better record (see #6 Stanford, #7 Ohio State in final 2015 rankings; #4 Texas A&M, #5 Washington 2 weeks ago).

5.  The committee likes head-to-head winners (see #8 Texas A&M, #9 Auburn last week).

#1, #2, #3 and #4 count against the Buckeyes. Barring something strange, they aren’t going to appear in a conference championship game, and they aren’t going to jump Alabama, but they could get jumped by a 2-loss conference champion. The question is, can #5 save them?

Remember to ignore this week’s Playoff Rankings, and every set of rankings before the last one. In 2014, TCU fell from #3 to #6 after drilling Kansas 55-3 and got shut out of the playoffs. Conference championships matter A LOT.

SEC, ACC, and PAC (or, hope for a lot of losses)

In 2 years of playoffs, we’ve seen eight Power 5 conference champions, and zero non-champions. There are five Power 5 champions (duh), so at least one is getting left out of the playoffs every year. Obviously, being a conference champion isn’t a prerequisite, otherwise Notre Dame would never have a shot at the title. But in order to get in, the Buckeyes would need to pass at least two champions.

SEC. Ohio State’s not going to pass SEC champion Alabama, even if they lose to Auburn. What if Florida beats Alabama for the title? If Florida loses to FSU or LSU, running their total to 3, they’re not going to the playoff, Bama or no Bama. If they win out, they go to the playoff at 11-2, and nobody bats an eye.

Could Alabama get in at 12-1 with a loss in the SEC title game? Wins over USC, LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn would move the needle quite a bit, and a loss to 10-3 Florida wouldn’t be devastating. At any rate, they would get in over an Ohio State team that didn’t even appear in their conference title game. Would the same be true if Alabama loses to Auburn and Florida and finishes 12-2? Hard to say, but that’s asking for 2 improbable losses.

ACC. If Clemson loses to Wake Forest, Louisville goes to the ACC title game. Ohio State will probably not get in over an ACC champion Clemson or Louisville, even one with 2 losses. But nobody in the Coastal division has fewer than 3 losses. A 3-loss ACC champion will probably not get into the playoff, nor will a non-champ Louisville or Clemson (even if Louisville is 11-1). Hope for a Coastal win.

Pac-12. 12-1 Washington gets in easily. 12-2 Pac-12 Champ Washington gets in as well, even taking a bad loss to Arizona State. But if Wazzu takes the Apple Cup and goes on to win the Pac-12, NO WAY do they get in. Not with losses to Boise State and Eastern Washington.

What if the South takes the Pac-12 title? A 2-loss Utah or Colorado gets in without much question. A 3-loss USC getting in over 11-1 Ohio State is a reeeeaaallll tough sell, but a win over Washington (maybe 2, or maybe also a win over Washington State) would help, and the loss to Alabama is excusable, even though it was an obliteration. A 4-loss USC with a loss to ND can kiss the playoffs goodbye. This is probably the best outcome to hope for to get the Pac-12 out of the way, but it’s a stretch.

Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Oklahoma

Big 12. Whet your appetite, Buckeye Nation. The Big 12 has no conference championship game, so there’s no thirteenth game boost for the playoff committee. The league will still produce a champion, however, and it will likely be one of the two Ohio State will have to pass to make the playoff.

If Oklahoma State wins out, they’re the league’s “One True Champion” and would like jump Ohio State, even with 2 losses. True, they have a bad, bad loss to Central Michigan, but it was a fluky loss on a blown call. It’s difficult to project how the committee would view this.

If Oklahoma State loses and West Virginia wins out, 11-1 West Virginia definitely gets in over Ohio State. A championship, one acceptable loss, this one’s a no-brainer.

But what if Oklahoma wins out, beating Oklahoma State and West Virginia? The Sooners would be sitting at 10-2, and with a pretty humbling home loss to the Buckeyes. I don’t see a way for the committee to move a 2-loss Oklahoma ahead of Ohio State.

Big Ten. Might as well make your peace with it now, Buckeye Nation, for the 5^th time in the last 6 years (6 of 7 if you count the 2010 vacation), Ohio State is probably not going to be your Big Ten Champions. But who will? Assuming Ohio State goes 11-1, Michigan is going to be on the outside looking in as well, so get ready for the thriller of Penn State versus…one of five teams (!) still alive in the West. Only Wisconsin or Nebraska can get into the title game with 2 losses, and a 3 loss Big Ten champion isn’t going to get into the playoff over Ohio State. A Penn State win would be problematic for Ohio State, with only two losses, a conference championship, and a head-to-head win, PSU would get in ahead of OSU. But what if Wisconsin or Nebraska is your Big Ten champion? Now we’re back to the Oklahoma scenario: more losses, including a head-to-head loss. Could the committee put in a 2-loss Wisconsin or Nebraska in ahead of Ohio State? I don’t see it happening.

So, in short, if OSU stays home on December 3, hope for (in order of likelihood):

1.  Wisconsin to win out and win the B1G

2.  Oklahoma to win out and win the Big 12

3.  The ACC Coastal winner to upset Clemson or Louisville

4.  Washington State to win out and win the Pac 12

5.  Something really unlikely to happen