Friday, December 30, 2016

Merry New Year! - Pick Six

Final Regular Season Standings
1) Hoying              46-17        (4-9 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    40-18        (6-6 upset)
3) Draper               43-20        (4-9 upset)
4) Seeberg             42-21        (4-9 upset)

Urb lift us up where we belong...where the Buckeyes fly, over mountains high...on the way to Phoenix and then hopefully Tampa. That's right, Ohio State is back in the playoff, which means people might actually watch it this year, even though it's on New Year's Eve again (thank you NFL). Whet your appetite with a little Orange zest the night before, then ring in 2017 basking in another Buckeye playoff victory, or go to bed early should the unthinkable happen.

Orange Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: These two teams entered the year with preseason National Championship hype, but "stumble" into the Orange Bowl.  Removing the name of the bowl, I don't think many people would be able to distinguish this game from a playoff matchup.  FSU is clicking offensively at the right time with Dalvin Cook remembering how to play football and Deondre Francois's seemingly indestructible nature on display.  The Wolverines limp in after losing to the Bucks in an all timer...but do they have enough left?  I have a feeling TTUN will feel sorry for themselves and the "refs" killing their championship hopes whereas FSU believes this is a stepping stone.  The loss of Derwin James for the playoff game is huge for the embattled Nole secondary, but the defense has stepped up against mediocre offenses (see: Michigan).  The Wolverine's D is fantastic but will they care enough to play their best, I'm guessing (and hoping) no.  Go Noles! UM: 20--FSU: 24
Hoying: Last year Captain Crazy invaded the Sunshine State and demolished Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Can he do it again to the Gators' younger brother? One of these teams has a world-class defense, and the other...does not. Florida State hasn't lacked for points (outside of a bizarre early season faceplant against Louisville), even steamrolling a tough Gator D, but Michigan provides a new type of challenge. Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribling (and the rest) will blow past Dalvin Cook on the way to grinding the reconstructed remains of Deondre Francois back into gooey paste. UM: 31--FSU: 16
Schweinfurth: One of the funniest things I have heard in the lead up to this game is that the Seminole players want to infuriate Harbaugh. We all remember Harbaughplaycard/headsetspike.gif from The Game (I can't get enough of that and the subsequent flag). I would love to see 'Noles players trash talk directly at Harbaugh just to see what that meltdown would look like. Hint, it would be EPIC! But seriously, this game will be sack city. The defensive front seven for both teams are really good while the offensive lines are not. Against my better judgement I'm going to take TTUN only because the B1G has been scorching hot (outside of Indiana) this bowl season. UM: 17--FSU: 10
Seeberg:  This game, like seemingly almost every New Years' Six big-game-around-January-1st bowl game features strength on strength (think Clemson O vs. OSU D, Washington O vs. Bama D, etc.) in FSU's offense against Michigan's D.  Like so many of the other games, however, it is likely to be decided when the less touted squads are competing.  I don't trust Michigan outside that horrible state very much, but I trust FSU's D even less.  Harbaugh guides TTUN to their sixth 11-win season since 1906 (yes you read that right) while Urban, preparing for the Fiesta Bowl, and his Ohio State Buckeyes have 11 such seasons since 2002.  Rofl.  UM: 27--FSU: 17

Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: One team is at the biggest bowl game in their history and the other is facing a 'little sister of the poor'--see last year's Peach Bowl in which the Fighting Tom Herman's defeated the big bad Noles.  The difference here is that Wisconsin didn't really believe their realistic expectations this year would supercede what actually happened.  Wisky is punching above their class and will fight for a nice bowl win.  P.J. Fleck will pull out all the stops to row the boat over the Badgers, but the team has not been tested all year.  The Badgers are too much and the Broncos fail to get that elusive 3rd B1G win.  WMU: 10 -- UW: 28
Hoying: Does Wisconsin want to be here? How much of the Badgers' stumbles in the B1G Championship can be attributed to Penn State's bull crap "five hundred!" offense and how much is a result of B1G coach of the year Paul Chryst losing focus? Is life really but a dream? I don't know the answers to those questions. I know this game looks a whole lot more like Georgia-Hawaii than Oklahoma-Boise State. I know Wisconsin shut down a much more talented LSU offense back in September. I know that no team ranked ahead of its opponent alphabetically this bowl season is later in the alphabet than Western Michigan. WMU: 13--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: How did we get a pre-season B1G game as a New Years' Six game? There is a reason the Group of 5 schools want to have their own playoff, it's because there is a pretty large talent gap. I don't know if the Broncos can handle the physicality that Wisconsin brings with them on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan's offense is enough to keep them in the game, but the Badgers can just grind teams into dust. WMU: 21--UW: 31
Seeberg:  See above.  Western Michigan can score it and score it often.  Wisconsin doesn't really allow teams to score all that much...ever.  But again it'll be Wisconsin's mediocre O versus Western Michigan's average-by-MAC-standards defense that will decide the game.  Give Chryst a month to prepare for a ho-hum defense and Wisconsin should get out to a lead that they can sit on, regardless of the signal-caller (which is good, because both Badger QBs are hot garbage).  Row the boat back to shore P.J., Broncos don't swim that well.  WMU: 17--UW: 31  

Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: PSU has run the same offense each week and it inexplicably keeps working: go deep, chuck it, pray, TD.  The Trojans have been on fire lately, but look at the competition: Pac 12 garbage (see bowl season--Congrats on Utah's big win over 6-7 Indiana...by 2).  USC was exposed early on by teams that hit you in the mouth...and the Lions tend to do that.  While the Trojans have better corners than Wisconsin, the Lions strategy of run Saquon followed by random bomb will be enough to take a very close and exciting Rose Bowl.  USC: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: At the risk of becoming political, this game has a sort of Donald Trump feel to it. You watch Penn State and you think, there's no way this team is going to keep winning. Their offense is built on taking crazy gambles and they just seem to be chucking it deep with no plan for what comes next. Yet they keep beating opponents that really, really seem like they shouldn't be losing to the Lions. Everyone keeps talking about USC being one of the hottest teams in the country as the season closed, and like Penn State, they did beat a playoff team, but I don't see Penn State's 9 game winning streak ending anytime soon. USC: 27--PSU: 34
Schweinfurth: Hey, remember that one top ten out of conference game USC played this year, yea that didn't go so well. It's amazing what a team can do once they start playing against PAC-12 defenses. I'm still not sold on Penn State, but you can't argue with the resume. Having Saquon Barkley in the backfield doesn't hurt either. I fully expect some more "500 football" that the Lions have been playing since the OSU game, but it works when you have tall, lanky receivers. USC: 17--PSU: 38
Seeberg:  Hey a home bowl game for USC, surprise surprise.  Both of these teams are white hot- or at least they were before taking a month off.  The Lions needed some inexplicably non-Urban coaching to squeak out a win against our Buckeyes, and USC is as talent-laden as Ohio State in many areas.  The talking heads think USC could be in the playoff if it weren't, you know, for those pesky crooked numbers in the loss column.  Maybe I'm a stubborn old man (my birthday was yesterday, after all), but I just refuse to believe Penn State is the fifth best team in the country.  USC pulls away late.  USC: 38--PSU: 24

Sugar Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Does anyone care about this game? Seriously? Auburn? Oklahoma is known based on the DISTANT 3rd and 4th place Heisman finalists and video game numbers...but Auburn? I don't think I've seen a second of the Tigers this year...and I don't regret it.  Oklahoma had preseason aspirations of the Championship, but those were squelched early by the Cougs and Bucks.  As of now, they are happy where they are with a Big 12 title and an overall nice season.  Auburn finished tied for 2nd in their own division (3 conference games behind first).  I do know that the Sooners can score in bunches and I think they'll enjoy being here so Big Game Bob might not fart it away.  Aub: 34--OU: 45
Hoying: Every year there's one eminently forgettable New Year's Six game, and welcome to the club, 2017 Sugar Bowl! Outside of Alabama, nobody cares about the SEC this year, either because they're all so mediocre, or they're all just so good that they've beaten each other down into obscurity. This game should tell us a lot about which is true. The Sooners are the only team with TWO (questionable) Heisman finalists, and they'll need all their weapons to navigate a stingy Auburn defense. No word yet on how basic (or acidic) the Tigers are. Baker Mayfield finally gets the big-game monkey off his back (no, not Bob Stoops) and the Sooners finish with a win. Aub: 31--OU: 34
Schweinfurth:  I have no respect for any SEC team outside of Alabama this year. As of this writing the SEC is 1-4 in bowl matchups (the pairings for the bowls usually favor the SEC too). Auburn has a decent defense but that offense? Not good. Deedee Westbrook is the real deal and a matchup nightmare. Big Game Bob takes the night off and Big Game Winning Bob actually shows up this year. This will be over quick. Aub: 10--OU: 42
Seeberg:  So Colorado (#10- 3 losses) and Oklahoma State (#12- 3 losses) are currently playing in the Alamo Bowl, yet Auburn (#14- 4 losses) gets a New Years' Six invitation?  Seems fishy SEC-y to me.  I assume the South was feared to rise up again and fight the Union had a second SEC team not been invited to the party.  In any event, it's strength on strength again.  Auburn does boast a good D that strangled Clemson and a decent rushing attack, but the Sooners O is just on fire.  Auburn's offense, meanwhile, is decidedly one-dimensional, and even Big 12 teams can stop an offense like that on occasion.  Expect Mayfield, Perine, Westbrook and Co. to do just enough to give the SEC's second best team a whopping- and hilarious- five losses.  Aub: 34--OU: 38

Peach Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: The Huskies have the athletes and playmakers to hang with the Tide and likely beat them....in  7 on 7.  The biggest discrepancy is the line play.  Bama has a MASSIVE advantage over everyone in the country with the big uglies on both sides (especially Jonathan Allen).  Washington's playmakers on the perimeter are special, but Browning tends to shrivel up in big games.  The pressure of the Bama defense is simply too much to ignore.  Washington matchups up with most teams in the country but not Bama.  Expect the Huskies to throw everything on the table early, but the slow inexorable crushing the Saban teams exert will be too much.  UW: 10--Bama: 24
Hoying: Ten years ago, I was one of a few (editor's note: as was Draper) who picked Boise State to upset heavily favored Oklahoma , and a little-known coach named Chris Petersen engineered arguably the most memorable upset of the BCS era (alongside Ohio State - Miami). Now the stage is reset. Can lightning strike twice? Alabama has been the team of seemingly no weakness this season. So, no. Just no. Expect Washington to pull out all the stops as they must realize they can't beat Alabama going strength-on-strength, but short of a lot of lucky breaks all in one direction, this one won't be close. UW: 13--Ala: 30
Schweinfurth:  What do we really know about Alabama? They beat a USC team that looked lost in week one and then rolled (no pun intended) through a very weak SEC. Do I believe that the Tide is the top team in the country, yes I do. Do I think they are unbeatable? Not at all. Look at their offense, it is very one dimensional. Shutting down the run game and making Hurts throw the ball is the way to go. Washington has a decent enough pass defense to cause issues if Bama has to throw the ball. Chris Petersen always has a trick up his sleeve in games like these (just ask Oklahoma and TCU) even if he doesn't use it. This game will test Bama and will be closer than the experts think. How will the Tide respond to a true test? We are about to find out. UW: 21--Ala: 24
Seeberg:  Hey looky here, strength on strength...again.  Washington can score it on O...about as well as Bama scores it on D.  Unfortunately for the Huskies, the PAC-12 plays as little D as any conference this side of the Big 12.  I don't expect a blowout, but I do expect Bama to wear down the U-dub defense in the second half and, sigh, win, sigh, again...SIGH.  UW: 20--Ala: 34

Fiesta Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Alone with the Orange Bowl, this has to be among the best matchups of the year.  Buckeye Nation needs to realize that the Buckeyes really have no business being in the playoff with the amount of talent that left for the NFL (and is DOMINATING).  This is the youngest team in the NCAA...and they're 2 games from winning it all.  That is a simply incredible inexplicable job done in recruiting and coaching.  Clemson is nearing the end of their reign at the top (I think) but this team is probably Dabo's best.  This game will feature the strength of the Tigers offense vs. the strength of the Buckeyes defense.  I think many points will be scored as JT will have a much better game throwing the rock than expected (no Jourdan Lewis on the other side) and the Buckeyes will be able to matriculate the ball down the field, but Deshaun Watson is no slouch and will make things happen for Clemson.  The matchup to watch will be Mike Williams vs. Marcus Lattimore on the perimeter as well as the Buckeyes ability to get pressure and force Watson into turnovers.  Expect a close game down to the wire but Meyer vs. Dabo? C'mon man.  BUUUUUUUCKS! OSU: 38--Clemson: 34 
Hoying: The 2014 Orange Bowl may have been inconsequential overall, but it was the biggest gut-punch loss I had seen since 2005 Texas (and I had been in attendance at the immediately prior Ohio State / Michigan State debacle). The Buckeyes overcame a horrible defensive performance to build a 9 point lead and seize all the momentum. Then Philly Brown muffed a punt and the game (and Braxton Miller's joints) fell apart. A sad final start for one of Ohio State's all-time greats behind center. Fast forward to this year. The Buckeyes, no longer an offensive juggernaut, have returned to their stifling defenses reminiscent of the Tressel era in result if not in scheme. Mike Williams is good, but he's no Sammy Watkins. JT Barrett can't quite run like Braxton, but nobody takes care of the ball better. Mike Weber isn't quite El Guapo yet, but he's on his way. And most importantly, Deshaun Watson has ball control issues. And he's going against Malik Hooker and company. If the Silver Bullets can keep up the heat, expect to see the Buckeyes keep their perfect playoff record intact (at least for now). OSU: 31--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth:  Fun fact, Urban Meyer is 10-2 in bowl games. Those two losses are Lloyd Carr's last game and with a very beat up team (and awful defense) against Clemson. Urban can get his teams up for these games. Look, Clemson is going to put some points up. They have a very dynamic offense. Remember that the last time Clemson talked trash about a QB, Lamar Jackson went for 400+ yards and the Tigers barely escaped. Watson has a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs. Bad news against this defense. Hooker and company will be licking their chops if Watson gets careless. JT and the receivers (and Isaiah Prince) have been working out the kinks over last month. Let's see if it pans out. Time for some revenge! GO BUCKS!!! OSU: 35--Clem: 31
Seeberg:  Ah yes, the main event before the main event.  And once again, strength on strength.  Clemson can score it, both running and passing.  OSU can pick it and score better than anybody.  I'm not worried about the silver bullets.  Watson will make a play or two with his legs and a play or two with his arm, but the BIG play will not be consistent for the Tigers- at least not as reliable as to which they are accustomed.  I am, however, concerned with the Buckeye offense that looked flat-out impotent for very large stretches against both teams from up north and for a half against Penn State and Wisconsin.  I don't think Clemson's D is quite as good as any of those units, but it's plenty good enough to cause havoc.  J.T. cannot be content to just take care of the ball every time.  Plays must be made.  SOMEBODY not named Curtis Samuel must get separation.  Weber and Samuel, combined, MUST get at least 30 carries.  If Urban game plans to his strengths (something he is phenomenal at) and then sticks to them in crunch time instead of just calling the QB run constantly (something he is lousy at) then it will be onto the national title game again.  Braxton, ye shall be avenged.  OSU: 35--Clem: 27