1. Draper (23-8, 1-6 upset)
2. Schweinfurth (22-9, 0-7 upset)
3. Seeberg (20-11, 3-4 upset)
4. Hoying (20-11, 0-7 upset)
Sorry, Buckeye Nation, our month-long tradition of offering human sacrifices to appease Brutus's insatiable hunger is going on hiatus while the table is set for some for more substantive feasts to come.
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Penn State gets there first "real" test of the year...or do they? So far, the Lions have gotten fat off of middling B1G teams and crap in the nonconference. Ok, IU isn't terrible this year and neither is Iowa, but they aren't setting the world on fire. Let's also look at those games. PSU pulled away late vs. IU but the Iowa game came down to the wire. Saquon Barkley has some flashes of brilliance and is definitely in the Heisman conversation, but he has been pedestrian for the last 2 weeks (IU and Northwestern...sheesh). In come the Wolverines and by far the best defense the Lions will have faced all year. I don't know if they can muster much against an angry Wolverine D. The good news for PSU is that Michigan is hot stinky poo on offense. While I don't have much respect for the Lion defense, Michigan's offense can't do much against anyone. I like the Lions to win an old fashioned Big Ten match with low scoring and boooooring football. I don't see much this week to prepare the Lions for what's coming in the Shoe. UM: 10 -- PSU: 17
Hoying: OK, sweetheart. The cupcake shop is closed for the next few weeks. It's time to show what Saquon & Co. can do against a real defense. PSU's has a dirty little secret: for all the love heaped on Barkley this season, the Nittany Lion rushing attack has kind of sucked the last couple of weeks. And now they have to face what may be the top run D in the country. Oh, but buck up, Happy Valley. It's not like John O'Scorn and his hapless crew have figured out that the red in "red zone" isn't a stoplight signal. This one could come down to attitude. Ever since the Rose Bowl, the voices in Penn State's ears have been gushing over how great they are (rat poison), while Michigan has come crashing down to earth after another loss to little brother. Don't underestimate the disrespekt factor. That said, don't underestimate the revenge factor, either. 49-10 is not quickly forgotten. UM: 9--PSU: 13
Schweinfurth: The best way to stop Penn State is to stop Saquan Barkley and tee off on Trace McSorely. Michigan has the defense that con do both. What is a huge prohibiting factor is that stinky poo offense. Seriously. Harbooger has himself a bad, injured QB, a bad QB, and a running game that can't run the ball. While I am not sold on Penn State's D being great, this is an easy offense to stop. All I ask out of this game is for these to teams to beat the crap out of each other. UM: 6--PSU: 14
Seeberg: Remember kids, through 31 games at UM, Harbaugh and Hoke have the exact same record...and Hoke's record against OSU and MSU is better. Tread lightly, TTUN is not back, and I have a sneaking suspicion this game will go a long way towards proving that opinion valid. True, the Nittany's offense is a bit one-
Central Florida Knights @ Navy Midshipmen
Draper: UCF and Scott Frost have become the belles of the ball. Undefeated against low level competition and Maryland (but I repeat myself) but they have looked pretty good doing it. Navy is the traditional Navy team that will end the year with 7-8 wins and frustrate the hell out of any team they play. Looking at UCF's upcoming schedule, this is the last decent game before the season finale vs. USF. There's a real chance UCF can be this year's WMU. Scott Frost will be headed to greener pastures (Nebraska?) soon, so enjoy it while you can Golden Knights. I like the Knights to take this from the option happy Midshipmen. UCF: 24 -- Navy: 17
Hoying: South Florida is the team on the 11 game winning streak, carrying all the hoopla going into the season. But the Group of 5's title contender might be a few miles east in Orlando. UCF has blasted all 5 teams it's played so far, including handing Memphis its only loss and crushing Maryland in College Park. The Knights are the highest-scoring team in FBS (ahead of two OSUs at #2 and #3) behind the steady arm of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton. Navy's coming off a bit of a fluky loss in which 5 turnovers doomed their hopes of an undefeated season. The triple option's a bit of a mess to prepare for, but a competent, well-coached team should have no problem putting the Midshipmen away. And it looks like UCF fits the profile. Keep an eye on Central Florida's coach, Scott Frost. He'll be resurrecting a big boy program soon. And keep an eye on the Knights. With a few (OK, a lot of) breaks, their season ending tilt against USF could be for a playoff spot. UCF: 31--Navy: 20
Schweinfurth: Anyone who knows me knows I love watching the service academies play. There is something nostalgic about watching college teams run the wing-T to perfection. The unfortunate part of the wing-T is that it is near impossible to come back from more than 2 scores down. I think UCF jumps Navy from the start to put them in a hole they just can't recover from. UCF: 28--Navy: 21
Seeberg: UCF has been putting up some gaudy numbers on offense this season, positioning themselves to be the Group of 5 representative in the money bowls this season. Those numbers are likely to take a bit of a dive this week as Navy comes rolling into town with their ball-control triple option offense. Stops on D will be at a premium in this matchup, and I would expect UCF to come up with one or two more than Navy. Knights pull away late. UCF: 38--Navy: 28
Southern California Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Does this game matter again? Surprise! It actually does. Notre Dame has been playing some good football this year and no one has noticed. USC is still the darling of the West but they've fallen backward into their 1-loss record (get lucky vs. Texas and Utah). I don't really think USC is for real, but they are firmly in control of their destiny. Are the Irish for real? I don't really think that either, but they have a nice win against Sparty and a close loss to a really good Georgia team. I'll begrudgingly take the home team, but I don't like it. I think the Irish have the ground game and the smarter team, but this reeks of a magical Trojan blowout. Let's hope the grass is mowed a little higher and the Irish put the nail in the coffin of the USC CFP hopes. USC: 27--ND: 33
Hoying: How is it possible that a team like Notre Dame can completely fall out of the national consciousness, particularly in the midst of a pretty good season? Everyone promptly forgot about the Irish after dropping a 1-point game at home against Georgia (who looks like they might be pretty, pretty good), and no one seems to remember that the Michigan State team that knocked off the Maize and Blue got smushed at home by the Golden Domers just a couple weeks prior. Notre Dame is a regular buzzsaw on offense, with a killer run attack fronted by RB Josh Adams, but they can be a bit one-dimensional. USC, on the other hand, can sling the rock, but there's a constant worry about to whom said rock shall be slung. Sam Darnold, or as I like to call him, Christian Hackenberg 2.0, has 9 picks on the season to go with 5 fumbles. That's bad news against a ball-hawking ND defense (what?) already +7 in turnover margin on the year. Fight off. USC: 23--ND: 30
Schweinfurth: Unfortunately, these are two teams I really haven't paid much attention to since each lost early in the season. Blame stupid start times (#Pac12AfterDark), having similar start times to the Buckeyes, and hockey started back up (yes, I have competing interests this time of year). From what I do know, Sam Darnold throws a lot of picks. It's almost to the point I could play in a secondary against him and pick him off (that's pretty bad). You can not turn the ball over in big games and USC has that track record. I am loathing this, but it's time for the talking heads to say the echos have awoken (they haven't). USC: 27--ND: 35
Seeberg: Wow. At the start of this season I would've expected this to be a blowout win for the Trojans, but one team has underperformed while the other has surpassed middling expectations this year. Sam Darnold's draft stock is plummeting with each turnover, already in the teens with 5 games remaining (by comparison, J.T. Barrett has a whopping 1 turnover the entire year). Essentially, the winner is still a viable candidate for the playoff and the loser is likely done. Based on last week (thanks Cal for making my upset pick look brilliant, by the way), I just can't trust anybody in the Pac-12 week to week. USC could very well blow the Irish out, but the Irish are more consistent, and my guess is that will make the difference in crunch time. Irish by a nose. USC: 31--ND: 34
Georgia Southern Eagles @ Massachusetts Minutemen
Draper: What? In the "well, someone's gotta win" category, we have this pillow fight between two defeated teams. Georgia Southern has been able to run on some decent teams in past years, but this year, they just plain suck. Luckily, so does UMass! I'm holding out hope for a ridiculous back and forth game in which it looks like the teams are trying to lose, but let's be honest, I'm not watching this. Minutemen have guns and can shoot the eagles. Clear UMass victory. Take it to the bank. GSU: 44 -- UMass: 45
Hoying: Did you know that UMass has a national championship? Did you know that they won it with their current coach? Sure, it was a I-AA title, and it was in 1998, and their coach left UMass to be a QB coach in the NFL (including coaching Brandon Weeden with the Browns) before returning, but hey, a recipe for success! Did you know that Georgia Southern beat Florida just 4 years ago? Not Florida International, Florida Florida. Like, the Gators. And they did it without completing a pass. Well, it's 2017 now, and Georgia Southern still might not complete a pass in this game, but I don't think anyone's going to confuse UMass with a title contender. The Minutemen haven't won more than 3 games in a season since jumping to FBS, and after an 0-6 start I wouldn't count on that streak to end. UMass hang tough with Tennessee a couple weeks ago, but they're going to lose again here. It's just what they do. GSU: 24--UMass: 20
Schweinfurth: These teams are bad. GSU: 31--UMass: 35
Seeberg: What a clash of the not-so-titans here. UMass manages to lose all sorts of ways: low-scoring (17-13, 17-7), shootouts (58-50, 38-35) and everything in between. GSU, meanwhile, just loses, badly, often, including to a 1-AA opponent. At least somebody's win column will go from a bagel to a breadstick. For my money? It's the Minutemen. GSU: 20--UMass: 31
Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Sparty (SPARTY NOOOO!)
Hoying: Texas over Oklahoma State
Schweinfurth: Kansas St. over Oklahoma
Seeberg: Arizona State over Utah
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