Standings
1. Draper (8-4, 1-2 upset)
1. Hoying (7-5, 0-3 upset)
3. Schweinfuth (7-5, 0-3 upset)
4. Seeberg (7-5, 0-3 upset)
TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper:We always hear of TCU preparing to emerge and bring defense to the Big12 with the lightning of Kenny Trill....but they don't have the world's most glorious mullet and Mason Rudolph. Yeah, the Pokes haven't reallly played anyone of note, but Pitt kept it close with PSU (kind of). The Pitt massacre was on in the first 20 minutes. I don't know much about the Horned Frogs, but I love me some Okie State right now. Fly Mullet, Fly! TCU: 24--OkSt: 45
Hoying: The Pokes are the hot team on everyone's lips after dismantling...Pitt...last week, but TCU is the team that already has a win over a (possibly) real live team in this young season. 2 weeks ago, the Horned Frogs rolled into Fayetteville and shut down Arkansas. Stopping Mason Rudolph will be a bit of a steeper task; TCU held him to 207 yards and 50% passing last year but still got their doors blown off in a 31-6 rout. This year should be closer, with the Cowboys still emerging victorious. TCU: 17--OkSt: 27
Schweinfurth: Mike Gundy may no longer be 40, but he is still a man and he's 50! What I'm getting at here is that the Oklahoma State offense seems unstoppable. The Fun and Gun is back baby! Oh yea, the really haven't faced a defense with a pulse either. TCU at least tries on defense. It's still not going to be enough. OSU has to put up at least 40 right? TCU just doesn't have the horses to score with the Pokes. TCU: 28--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Well, this year hasn't started out all that way for the prognosticators here at Let's Go Bucks. Lots of tricky games this week, such as this Stillwater shootout. TCU will likely get at least into the 30s, but it's tough to imagine them keeping Mason Rudolph and Co. out of the 40s. Cowboys pull away late. TCU: 35--OkSt: 45
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Cue Schweinfurth with the "I'm picking the Bulldogs to win" joke. If you read the column last week (as you should every week), you would seen that I gave you the big CLANGA win over LSU. Is it time for the annual UGA crap themselves game? I don't think we're quite there yet (but it's coming). The power of the CLANGA doesn't make it to Athens this week as Stark Vegas brought the pain last week. Chubb and Michel keep the Dawgs from UGA perfect until the annual meltdown. MSU: 20 -- UGA: 31
Hoying: Wow, Georgia! Big win over ranked opponent! Great power running game! And Mississippi State has them...outclassed on both fronts? Yes, these Bulldogs are 3-0 for the first time since they shot all the way up to #1 in 2014 behind the arm of Dak Prescott, and they're looking to prove that their win over LSU was no fluke. Their winning ways should continue between the hedges. MSU: 31--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: Hey Draper, there is a big difference here: one is the Bulldogs, the other is CLANGA!! Mississippi State did get the big win over LSU, but the Tigers can't get out of their own way. I'm not sold on either of these teams but I have to go with the known commodity in this game. It's Chubby Time! MSU: 14--UGA: 24
Seeberg: I'm not entirely certain what to make of this matchup. LSU got their doors blown off in Starkville last week, but now MSU is on the road. Still, UGA hasn't beaten anybody of consequence yet, and the SEC East doesn't provide too many of those matchups anyhow. Roll CLANGA (ugh). MSU: 31--UGA: 21
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: I don't know how good PSU really is after a lackluster win over Pitt (I don't care about the other crappy shutouts). I think they're pretty good (maybe not as good as last year) but outside of Barkley, I don't see a difference maker. The difference is that I really don't see Iowa as anything more than a mirage. The miracle comeback for the CyHawk is nice and likely got Ferentz another bajillion dollars, but I think Iowa is another 6-7 win yawner of a team in a pedestrian division. Weird things happen in Iowa City at night, but I just don't see it here. While I'd love a return to the 6-4 game, I'll go a touch higher. PSU: 30--Iowa: 13
Hoying: How good is Penn State, really? They've looked sharp on both sides of the ball, barely having to break a sweat on their way to 3-0. Meanwhile, Iowa struggled with their in-state rivals, like they do every year, and haven't really given too many flashes of brilliance lately outside of last year's stunner against Michigan. I don't really think they're going to test Penn State this week, either. PSU: 27--Iowa: 10
Schweinfurth: I honestly do not get the Iowa hype this year. They are a power running team with 3 RBs but had trouble with Iowa State. Penn State has a much better defense than the Cyclones. Everyone is calling Saquan Barkley the next (insert last great B1G running back) and he has earned some comparisons. The Nittany Lions have perfected the run, run, run, play 500 offense. It will get them through this game, but watch to see how many times McSorley gets hit. PSU: 35--Iowa: 17
Seeberg: This is a night game (lol). People are trying to convince you it will be close. It won't be. Iowa was in a game with freakin' Wyoming for 3 quarters. Roar Lions Roar. PSU: 38--Iowa: 14
UNLV Rebels @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: What do you say about this game? There is no reason this should be close at half. Last week was expected with the weird offensive scheme. This week offers no excuses. Bucks FINALLLY break 50 and look like a reasonable offense (not that I expect that to continue past this week). The defensive starters are out in the 4th quarter so a garbage TD is surrendered but no one really cares. Come enjoy the big red blob. That should be the most exciting part of the game! UNLV: 10--OSU: 52
Hoying: The good news is, even if Ohio State were to lose this game, they wouldn't be suffering the worst upset ever. That distinction belongs to the visiting Rebels of UNLV, who dropped a game to 45-point underdog Howard in their opener. Still, this is a pretty severe mismatch, now that the Buckeye offense is back on track. JT's setting more records, JK's breaking long TD runs, and the receivers...sure can block. Bucks keep on rolling through cupcake city. UNLV: 10--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: This game will be UGLY. UNLV lost to Howard (look them up). This is a true "get healthy" game. Find an offensive identity and establish it. If it's running, run the damn ball. If its a RPO team, then run that offense, but settle on something. The linebackers and secondary need all the live fire they can get and this is the perfect opportunity. Don't get hurt and get Dobbins his 150. UNLV: 7--OSU: 49
Seeberg: In stark contrast to the game above, nobody is trying to convince you this will be a game, and it sure as heck better not be. I am concerned that the offensive masterminds will beat their collective heads against the wall trying to throw passes for awhile, and honestly even that would produce a win. Hopefully, however, the run is used early and often and J.T. can hang out on the bench after an opening TD drive in the 3rd quarter, particularly since it'll be 90 tomorrow...wasn't it supposed to be the start of fall today? Oh well, stay healthy Bucks and let's get to B1G play. UNLV: 10--OSU: 56
Upset Special
Draper: Purdue over Michigan
Hoying: Kentucky over Florida
Schweinfurth: Cal over USC
Seeberg: NC State over Florida State (sorry, Chief)
Friday, September 22, 2017
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Grading the Bucks: Week 3 -- Army
One rule of thumb becomes eminently apparent when you schedule a service academy: Never schedule a service academy. Chop-block-o-clock, brutally long drives, and frustrating tenacity of the triple option. It's tough to prepare for and the Bucks did pretty well.
Offense: B-
I still want more. The running game looked very nice (more please) and Dobbins could be a special guy, but we appear to underutilize our backs severely. JT was fine this game (much better than OU), but his skill set isn't utilized properly. He ran well, but they never actually attempted 5-10 yard passes down the middle of the field (until Haskins came in). I don't like the repeated bubble screens (although 11 Warriors broke down some of the deceptive use nicely) because I feel the playcallers use them as a crutch. I really want to see more straight slant, post, or comebacks called in the middle of the field to see if JT can hit them. If he can't, then I'll jump off the bandwagon, but I think throwing to the flat on every play sets him up to look incapable. The receivers also need more practice running real routes rather than fading to the flat on every play. If it is truly a talent gap on JT's part to simply throw a 10 yard pass, we need to change, but I don't think that's it. I think asking him to throw 20-30 yards downfield is the issue, but we can work around that will a variety of short run-pass-options to utilize his skill set.
Defense: B+
Don't. Schedule. Service. Academies. Honestly, the defense performed quite well with limited reps against this option style. The secondary couldn't really be exploited in this game due to the lack of a passing game, but I'd like more confident tackling upfront (see: fullback dive). I was thrilled at the performance by Tuf Boreland who seemed to be a terror all over the field when he entered the game. He has a real future if he can keep that up. Erick Smith had a nice recovery on a deep ball...but he won't always be able to recover. Our secondary needs to be more confident in their defensive principles and not caught with their pants down. That was a fluke rather than the norm, but don't let it get out of hand.
Don't. Schedule. Service. Academies. Honestly, the defense performed quite well with limited reps against this option style. The secondary couldn't really be exploited in this game due to the lack of a passing game, but I'd like more confident tackling upfront (see: fullback dive). I was thrilled at the performance by Tuf Boreland who seemed to be a terror all over the field when he entered the game. He has a real future if he can keep that up. Erick Smith had a nice recovery on a deep ball...but he won't always be able to recover. Our secondary needs to be more confident in their defensive principles and not caught with their pants down. That was a fluke rather than the norm, but don't let it get out of hand.
Special Teams: C-
Credit to the placekicking and punting which has been much better this year than expected. Another kickoff out of bounds (almost went into the stands!!) and horrendous kick coverage are real issues. Please, Urban. For the love of all that is good, get a kicker to kickoff into the student section on every single kick. We may "take pride" in starters on special teams, but they can't cover anything. The kickoff bobbled at the 1 should have been stopped inside the 10 but instead, Army crossed the 40 (I believe). That cannot happen...EVER. Punting has been extremely good and no one has noticed (I think I heard every punt--or almost every punt--was downed inside the 20 with the exception of 1 touchback that landed 1 yard deep). That's a huge accomplishment after losing Johnston.
Credit to the placekicking and punting which has been much better this year than expected. Another kickoff out of bounds (almost went into the stands!!) and horrendous kick coverage are real issues. Please, Urban. For the love of all that is good, get a kicker to kickoff into the student section on every single kick. We may "take pride" in starters on special teams, but they can't cover anything. The kickoff bobbled at the 1 should have been stopped inside the 10 but instead, Army crossed the 40 (I believe). That cannot happen...EVER. Punting has been extremely good and no one has noticed (I think I heard every punt--or almost every punt--was downed inside the 20 with the exception of 1 touchback that landed 1 yard deep). That's a huge accomplishment after losing Johnston.
Coaching: C
Eh, the gameplan against the triple option was fine. Nothing flashy; just leave with a win. Offensively, we need more diversity than the slip screens and swing passes to loosen the defense...or, you know, running the ball all over the opponent to loosen the defense??? There never seems to be a cohesive gameplan. Let's keep pounding the rock and take some downfield shots to keep them honest. Stop trying to force a passing game first and use the run when you've run out of bubble screens. Dobbins, Weber, and Barrett are gouging defenses on the ground but they have fewer plays called for them. I understand the game theoretic notion of using those plays as decoys, but when they can't stop you when they know it's coming (see Army, UNLV, Rutgers), just flex your muscles. One aspect of this game made me throw up in my mouth a bit. We punted on 4th and short from THE ARMY 34!!! C'MON MAN!! Yes, the punt was down inside the 1 (note: army then went on a 99 yard TD drive, but I digress), but you don't think you can get a few yards against Army?!? Even if you aren't sure, the cost/benefit ratio from an analytic standpoint is off the chart. I was floored that Meyer chose to punt there. There is no room for that thought process in today's game (spoken as a sport's analytics professor). We deserved a 99 yard response from Army for that egregious decision.
Eh, the gameplan against the triple option was fine. Nothing flashy; just leave with a win. Offensively, we need more diversity than the slip screens and swing passes to loosen the defense...or, you know, running the ball all over the opponent to loosen the defense??? There never seems to be a cohesive gameplan. Let's keep pounding the rock and take some downfield shots to keep them honest. Stop trying to force a passing game first and use the run when you've run out of bubble screens. Dobbins, Weber, and Barrett are gouging defenses on the ground but they have fewer plays called for them. I understand the game theoretic notion of using those plays as decoys, but when they can't stop you when they know it's coming (see Army, UNLV, Rutgers), just flex your muscles. One aspect of this game made me throw up in my mouth a bit. We punted on 4th and short from THE ARMY 34!!! C'MON MAN!! Yes, the punt was down inside the 1 (note: army then went on a 99 yard TD drive, but I digress), but you don't think you can get a few yards against Army?!? Even if you aren't sure, the cost/benefit ratio from an analytic standpoint is off the chart. I was floored that Meyer chose to punt there. There is no room for that thought process in today's game (spoken as a sport's analytics professor). We deserved a 99 yard response from Army for that egregious decision.
Overall: B-
Don't. Schedule. Service. Academies. We got the win and that's all I'm taking from this one. It may have been ugly, but that's what these games always are. Take the win (and cover for all you haters out there) and go home. Next week should be worse as there is no reason we don't annihilate UNLV. If there's less than a 40 point victory, I'll be upset.
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