Standings
1. Draper (39-15, 2-9 upset)
2. Seeberg (36-18, 5-6 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (35-19, 0-11 upset)
4. Hoying (33-21, 1-10 upset)
We hope you enjoyed the last two earth-shattering weeks across the college football landscape, which saw our beloved Buckeyes' playoff hopes unceremoniously dashed and then resurrected as the world crumbled around them. Because you're not going to enjoy this week. There's a total of one ranked matchup, so that's all you're going to get (along with going through the motions of picking Ohio State to disintegrate Illinois).
Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: So does Michigan have anything left? This has been a year of wild swinging Wolverine emotions that has settled down to: maybe losing our entire defense to the NFL might hurt our team this year. Enter Brandon Peters who has looked decent in relief (although White Goodman with the chicken legs would have been an upgrade), but the Badgers D has turned up the heat. I'm still not 100% sold on Wisconsin (yes, they trashed Iowa who trashed OSU, but you'll see in last weeks picks that I totally expected that), but I think they'll be able to handle a mediocre young QB in their house. Michigan does still have a pretty good defense (even though PSU took care of them in the whiteout, but the slow and steady Badgers just sit on them with their 500 lb fat guys. The inexorable Bucky moves on. UM: 10 -- UW: 19
Hoying: Finally we'll get to see if these overrated hacks can get a win over a team ranked in the top 50 or so. But enough about Michigan...Wisconsin has played very steady all year, not having to sweat a game in the 4th quarter (except mayyybe Northwestern). Can the Wolverines turn the heat up in Camp Randall? I don't think they'll be able to match the Badgers from a motivation factor. This is practically a one-game season for the Badgers, while Michigan may have other upcoming battles to worry about. Peters has looked OK replacing O'Korn, but he hasn't really had to do anything yet. This week he'll have to chase down DBs after throwing picks all over the field in a vain attempt to lead the Wolverines back against a punishing Badger D. Michigan's late season slide starts...now. UM: 13--UW: 20
Schweinfurth: Does anyone really think this game will be competitive? I don't. Michigan has been thrashing teams they are supposed to whip. Wisconsin has been steadily rolling along. Johnathan Taylor has looked like a beast behind the Badgers' large mammals. No Jazz Peavy could make it interesting, but Wisconsin just grinds the Harboogers down for the Bucks next week. UM: 10--UW: 35
Seeberg: Well the Wolverines are back in the rankings. Anybody think they'd see the day when a 3-loss MSU team would be 7 spots ahead of a 2-loss UM team? Further proof that times have changed...but wait! Isn't the Khaki-nator going to bring UM back to prominence? Well it's season three and so far, not so much. Conference relevance (barely) and that's about it thus far. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's defense allowed a big fat goose egg to Iowa last week (you know, the same team that somehow hung 48 offensive points on our Buckeyes the week before), as the Hawkeyes managed only two pick-sixes to get on the scoreboard. In any event, a good defense going up against what the Wolverines trot out as a purported offense is not a good recipe for a victory. Enjoy returning to the ranks of the unranked, maize and blue. UM: 10--UW: 21
Illinois Fighting Illini @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Let's be honest, this game should be about one thing and one thing only: sending JT Barrett out of the Shoe on a high note. He has been here for his 123 years and in true Aaron Craftinan manner, caused fits for all the Buckeye foes. He deserves to be sent out on a high note, as does all time starts king Billy Price. These seniors have been involved in a fantastic four (five) years) and deserve the praise and accolades coming to them. There is a game this week, but Illinois just plain sucks...they're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked (sorry, Buttgers). There is absolutely no reason for this to be close after the first quarter (it better not be). Don't take it lightly because I remember another Senior Day vs. Illinois as my last home game in the band (psst...it didn't go well). This should be a shellacking and the crowd should give these seniors (especially JT) their warmest thanks. We are lucky to have had them represent the school. Keep rocking and hope for more chaos! Ill: 9 -- OSU: 52
Hoying: I don't even know what to say about this game. You saw Ohio State play the likes of Rutgers, and Maryland, and Nebraska earlier this year. Well, Illinois is worse than those teams. By a lot. Booker and Baker (and Candlestick Maker) should be back to roam the field again this week for the Silver Bullets, and it'll be interesting to see if last week's phenomenally successful LB shakeup will continue now that the regular guys are back. Other than that, just don't lose. It would be bad. Ill: 6--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: I did not see that coming. Seriously, I picked OSU 17-10 last week. THAT was the Buckeye team that needed to show up all year and did against Penn State. The zone read and down field passing have their place in the Bucks offense but this is a power running team. This game will be nothing but ground and pound from Dobbins and Weber (that forecast tomorrow is all rain). Nothing more is needed. Illinois is B. A. D. BAD. Keep the offense and defense rolling and on to everyone's favorite week of the year. The Bullets get the shutout for the seniors. Ill: 0--OSU: 45
Seeberg: I officially cannot figure this team out. The only thing I know to be true- and I'm far from the only one- is that this team is virtually unstoppable on offense when the RBs get enough carries. Remember, Zeke had 696 by himself rushing the ball in the last 3 games of 2014 and we all know how that season ended. We may not have a transcendent talent at RB (though Dobbins is pushing to be just that), but the two-headed beast of Weber and Dobbins is every bit as formidable. None of this should matter against Illinois, of course, but hopefully Urban, Kevin and Co. finally learned their lesson. It's almost Xichigan week kids! Ill: 3--OSU: 49
Upset Special
Draper: UVA over da U
Hoying: UCLA over USC
Schweinfurth: Minnesota over Northwestern
Seeberg: Texas Tech over TCU
Friday, November 17, 2017
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Grading the Bucks: Week 11 -- Michigan State
Aahhhh..much better.
Offense: B+
The running game was back to old form with Dobbins and Weber taking care of business while JT quietly had a nice ground game as well. The offensive line was fantastic as well both passing and running. The major knock came on the questionable (to say the least) interceptions thrown by Mr. Barrett. The second was a clear attempt by Meyer to get the stats a little better for Barrett in a blow out so it wasn't terrible...other than the throw showed he had checked out by that time. The passing game was actually pretty good but the interceptions were just dumb. No matter what, the running game was the star. Mike Weber reminds Buckeye Nation (again) that he's really good while Dobbins still impressed. When the team is clicking, look out.
Defense: A
That's how you turn things around in a big way. It looked like the defensive line decided to man up after being embarrassed last week. It certainly didn't hurt having Bosa in for a full 60, but it was nice to see this team not give up on the season after the abomination in Iowa City. I'll give major props to the linebackers who appeared to be night and day compared to the Hawkeye game. Baker has been awful lately so the worry was what are his backups looking like. Borland was phenomenal in the middle and moving Worley to outside linebacker seems like the right move going forward. He looked much more comfortable in that position. While MSU isn't going to wow the top teams in the nation with their offensive prowess, Iowa was considered to be Sparty lite (run the ball and pass to the TEs). The defensive adjustments over the last week were a work of art.
Special Teams: B+
You know what? I didn't even remember the special teams existed...and that's what I want from Urban's boys. No missed kicks, no turnovers, no stupid blunders...I'll take that all day every day.
Coaching: B+
The gameplan was beautiful and worked like a charm. Getting this team to play for something when all appeared lost was a major victory in and of itself. Michigan State was completely befuddled on both sides of the ball and simply couldn't stop the Buckeyes. I was disappointed that JT was in the game so late. There was no reason to risk injury or do anything dumb when the game was well in hand. While I agree that injuries can't be planned for, the first unit seemed to have checked out of the game at halftime. That's not optimal, but when they showed they had the ability and stomped another good team, I think it was time to get some reps for the second teamers. The lack of 100% effort in the late 3rd early 4th was noticeable. I think the coaches should have sent a message that if you don't go 100%, don't bother checking in. Hard to fault the coaches too much. This was a beautiful bounce back victory.
Overall: A-
Michigan State is a very good (not great team) and the Buckeyes embarrassed them when all the momentum and energy sided with the roaring Spartans (Buckeyes coming off a historic loss while the Spartans just beat Penn State and had control of the division). Don't underestimate the effort the coaches must have put in this week to get these kids to play hard. The players were mentally challenged this week and came out on the other side with new hope. The new goal, don't get ahead of yourselves. Nothing matters this week, but one thing...beating a hapless Illinois team on Senior Day (PS that didn't go so well last time). Take care of your business.
Offense: B+
The running game was back to old form with Dobbins and Weber taking care of business while JT quietly had a nice ground game as well. The offensive line was fantastic as well both passing and running. The major knock came on the questionable (to say the least) interceptions thrown by Mr. Barrett. The second was a clear attempt by Meyer to get the stats a little better for Barrett in a blow out so it wasn't terrible...other than the throw showed he had checked out by that time. The passing game was actually pretty good but the interceptions were just dumb. No matter what, the running game was the star. Mike Weber reminds Buckeye Nation (again) that he's really good while Dobbins still impressed. When the team is clicking, look out.
Defense: A
That's how you turn things around in a big way. It looked like the defensive line decided to man up after being embarrassed last week. It certainly didn't hurt having Bosa in for a full 60, but it was nice to see this team not give up on the season after the abomination in Iowa City. I'll give major props to the linebackers who appeared to be night and day compared to the Hawkeye game. Baker has been awful lately so the worry was what are his backups looking like. Borland was phenomenal in the middle and moving Worley to outside linebacker seems like the right move going forward. He looked much more comfortable in that position. While MSU isn't going to wow the top teams in the nation with their offensive prowess, Iowa was considered to be Sparty lite (run the ball and pass to the TEs). The defensive adjustments over the last week were a work of art.
Special Teams: B+
You know what? I didn't even remember the special teams existed...and that's what I want from Urban's boys. No missed kicks, no turnovers, no stupid blunders...I'll take that all day every day.
Coaching: B+
The gameplan was beautiful and worked like a charm. Getting this team to play for something when all appeared lost was a major victory in and of itself. Michigan State was completely befuddled on both sides of the ball and simply couldn't stop the Buckeyes. I was disappointed that JT was in the game so late. There was no reason to risk injury or do anything dumb when the game was well in hand. While I agree that injuries can't be planned for, the first unit seemed to have checked out of the game at halftime. That's not optimal, but when they showed they had the ability and stomped another good team, I think it was time to get some reps for the second teamers. The lack of 100% effort in the late 3rd early 4th was noticeable. I think the coaches should have sent a message that if you don't go 100%, don't bother checking in. Hard to fault the coaches too much. This was a beautiful bounce back victory.
Overall: A-
Michigan State is a very good (not great team) and the Buckeyes embarrassed them when all the momentum and energy sided with the roaring Spartans (Buckeyes coming off a historic loss while the Spartans just beat Penn State and had control of the division). Don't underestimate the effort the coaches must have put in this week to get these kids to play hard. The players were mentally challenged this week and came out on the other side with new hope. The new goal, don't get ahead of yourselves. Nothing matters this week, but one thing...beating a hapless Illinois team on Senior Day (PS that didn't go so well last time). Take care of your business.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
So you're telling me there's a chance--Buckeyes in the Playoff?
Alright, the Buckeyes were buried for dead as the clock struck zero in Iowa City just over a week ago. By the fans, by the media, by everyone. But that little magic inherent in College Football known as #TeamChaos reared its beautiful head and we're right back in it. Let's discuss. While this is indeed a 'homer' Buckeye blog, this post is real. I will do my best to take an objective view of the current climate and demonstrate that the Buckeye's making the playoff for the 3rd time in 4 years is not a pipe dream...even after that horrid game vs. the Hawkeyes.
The Teams that Control Their Destinies
Extremely surprisingly, I count 7 (perhaps 8 teams) who are in a legitimate 'win out and you're in' scenario.
1) Alabama Crimson Tide: In the 'duh' category, we have Saban's crew. As one of three unbeaten Power 5 teams, there is (clearly) no chance for an undefeated Bama to miss out on their 4th (of 4) playoffs. The road is bumpy with two meetings (maybe only one) with other controllers of destiny. Simple plan for the Tide: Beat the Tigers and the Bulldogs and you're the number 1 seed.
2) Miami Hurricanes: This makes me sick to my stomach, but 'the U' is back to relevance and shame on the doubters (including me). This is also a 'duh' contender. Beat UVA, Pitt, and Clemson and enter the playoff as no worse than the 2 seed.
3) Oklahoma Sooners: This team just continues to roll on offense and...well, they're good on offense. Baker Mayfield can put the Heisman on his resume now as well as another playoff appearance (2nd of 4) if they win out. Beating an angry TCU team in a rematch might be tough but the wins over OSU, Oklahoma St, and TCU are too good to ignore.
4) Clemson Tigers: Clemson has the lone blemish to a questionable Syracuse team but wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Miami in the ACC Title game would put the champs back into the playoff for their 3rd go round.
5) Wisconsin Badgers: Stop the talk. If the Badgers win out, they're in. There is no question and no argument. Yes, the schedule is poo, but wins over Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State (or another East team barring disaster) will be enough. The zero in the loss column will guarantee the large dairy farmers a shot at the title.
6) Georgia Bulldogs: Well, the beatdown at Jordan Hare left a mark, but UGA is in a fine position. Beat Bama or a rematch vs. Auburn and they'll be in the playoff without a doubt. The SEC East is probably the worst division in football, but the win over Notre Dame is the gift that keeps on giving.
7) Auburn Tigers: Ok, this one wasn't expected, but the absolute demolition of the Bulldogs followed by dates against Bama and possibly the Bulldogs again? The close losses to Clemson and LSU will be completely ignored. Get hot and take down the king and you're in. Honestly, this is a guarantee in my mind.
The contenders
8) TCU Horned Frogs: This is the team that might actually control their destiny as well, but it's not a done deal...yet. Winning out includes beating OU in a rematch. A two loss team with wins over OU (on the second try), Oklahoma State, and West Virginia MIGHT be enough, but I'm not willing to rubber stamp it. If they drop another, bye bye.
9) THE Ohio State Buckeyes: The sky was falling, but winning out would include beating Illinois (woo....), Michigan (better), and Wisconsin (nice!). Beating Wisconsin also removes them from our path (maybe) which is cool and all. The committee loves the Buckeyes because they know the Urban Meyer coached teams are capable of beating anyone (and losing to anyone...). I think the Buckeyes are in a beautiful spot to sneak in if they can run the table with wins over PSU, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one is really interesting. The Irish have nice wins over BC (eh), USC, and Michigan State, but everyone saw that Miami game. Did it dishearten the Irish? Can they come back from that and beat Stanford? If they take care of business, their resume looks very much like the Buckeyes. It will be very interesting.
11) USC Trojans: The Trojans are coming on strong, but wins over Stanford and... Washington or Washington State? I seriously doubt they have a legit shot, but a Pac12 champion has an outside outside outside shot with the name/athletes that USC has.
Thanks for playing but miracles are needed
12) Oklahoma State: I love Mike Gundy's squad, but they aren't winning the Big 12 and there's nothing to hang their hat on.
13) Washington Huskies: crap schedule with best win against WSU or USC and NOTHING else
14) UCF: Nice season but no.
15) Penn State: ha. Did they beat anyone other than Michigan?
"So what does it all mean Basil?"
Let's look closely at the top two tiers: Almost all teams are in the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or ACC (exceptions: Notre Dame, USC): translation: cannibalism. The only conferences that could even feasibly get 2 teams in are the SEC and ACC (and that would only happen with 1-loss Bama or 1- loss Miami--and they wouldn't be locks). This is why Ohio State lives! Let's admit it: 2 spots are locked up (barring a ton of stupid upsets): SEC Champ and ACC Champ. Oklahoma is a lock with a Big 12 title with the win in September in Columbus. This leaves one spot for craziness and OSU is ready to pounce. What is the optimal scenario for the Buckeyes? For whom should we root?
Best case sceneario
Obviously, if any of those 10 teams (not OSU) lose some stupid game to another team not listed above, that would be great (and funny). Root for that.
1) Ohio State must win out: This is obvious but often forgotten. Buckeye fans will come up with a multitude of crazy scenarios to ensure their team a shot but forget that one loss, and there is absolutely no coming back.
2) Bama wins out: "But we hates Bama, precious?" Root for Bama to clear out Georgia and Auburn. A one loss Bama has a smidgen of hope as well. Don't risk giving 2 spots to the SEC. Take that spot as the SEC's and make sure Saban gets it. We'll just beat them in the Sugar Bowl again right?...RIGHT?!?!
3) Oklahoma wins out: This knocks the specter of TCU out of the picture (prevent reverse 2014?). Also, it's almost impossible to imagine OSU jumping a 2-loss Oklahoma even if they win the Big Ten. We all remember Sept 9th and the committee will too. But what about Penn State last year? The committee looks at head to head when the records and resumes are similar. OU and OSU's resumes will be similar. Last year, OSU had a much better resume and one fewer loss than PSU. They followed the principles then, and I believe they will again.
4) For safety sake, the U wins out (barf): This knocks Clemson out and prevent a comparison of 2 loss B1G Champion OSU vs. 1-loss Miami. OSU would have better wins overall, but the loss to Iowa will be tough to ignore.
5) Would be nice for Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State to win out (prior to championship weekend): Help keep those wins on the resume looking good.
If this happens, your playoff will be:
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. ?????
Who's left to fight?
B1G Champ OSU
1 loss Wisconsin
2 loss Notre Dame
2 loss Georgia
2 loss Pac12 Champ USC (or Washington)
2 loss Clemson
By no means is this a slam dunk for Ohio State, but I like our chances.
vs. Wisky: Lasting image of defeating the Badgers in their only real test. A 59-0 pasting would be nice as well. This could get interesting, but I doubt it would.
vs. Notre Dame: This one is close, but playing the "conference champion" card is big. Notre Dame has better losses but OSU has better wins (with Wisconsin on the belt)
vs. Georgia: They have no conference championship, a win of Notre Dame in September, and...Nothing else.
vs. Pac12 Champ: zzzzzzzzzz look at the resumes
vs. Clemson: Tigers have no conference championship and a worse loss. Slight edge to Clemson in body of work, but that B1G championship...
Overall:
We only control one part of this mess.
Just.
Win.
Baby.
I believe everything laid out above will be the 'Vegas' favorite with the possible exception of Miami over Clemson. We know we can't plan for everything to go right, but this is real. Even if the best case scenario doesn't happen, the Bucks have a better than average shot if they win out. Based on the numbers, the Buckeyes have a 62% chance to make the playoffs if they win out regardless of the other teams outcomes. If you gave me those odds after last week, I'd say you were crazy, but then again...it's college football. Sit back and enjoy the ride. It may not have the desired outcome, but man is it a lot of fun!
The Teams that Control Their Destinies
Extremely surprisingly, I count 7 (perhaps 8 teams) who are in a legitimate 'win out and you're in' scenario.
1) Alabama Crimson Tide: In the 'duh' category, we have Saban's crew. As one of three unbeaten Power 5 teams, there is (clearly) no chance for an undefeated Bama to miss out on their 4th (of 4) playoffs. The road is bumpy with two meetings (maybe only one) with other controllers of destiny. Simple plan for the Tide: Beat the Tigers and the Bulldogs and you're the number 1 seed.
2) Miami Hurricanes: This makes me sick to my stomach, but 'the U' is back to relevance and shame on the doubters (including me). This is also a 'duh' contender. Beat UVA, Pitt, and Clemson and enter the playoff as no worse than the 2 seed.
3) Oklahoma Sooners: This team just continues to roll on offense and...well, they're good on offense. Baker Mayfield can put the Heisman on his resume now as well as another playoff appearance (2nd of 4) if they win out. Beating an angry TCU team in a rematch might be tough but the wins over OSU, Oklahoma St, and TCU are too good to ignore.
4) Clemson Tigers: Clemson has the lone blemish to a questionable Syracuse team but wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Miami in the ACC Title game would put the champs back into the playoff for their 3rd go round.
5) Wisconsin Badgers: Stop the talk. If the Badgers win out, they're in. There is no question and no argument. Yes, the schedule is poo, but wins over Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State (or another East team barring disaster) will be enough. The zero in the loss column will guarantee the large dairy farmers a shot at the title.
6) Georgia Bulldogs: Well, the beatdown at Jordan Hare left a mark, but UGA is in a fine position. Beat Bama or a rematch vs. Auburn and they'll be in the playoff without a doubt. The SEC East is probably the worst division in football, but the win over Notre Dame is the gift that keeps on giving.
7) Auburn Tigers: Ok, this one wasn't expected, but the absolute demolition of the Bulldogs followed by dates against Bama and possibly the Bulldogs again? The close losses to Clemson and LSU will be completely ignored. Get hot and take down the king and you're in. Honestly, this is a guarantee in my mind.
The contenders
8) TCU Horned Frogs: This is the team that might actually control their destiny as well, but it's not a done deal...yet. Winning out includes beating OU in a rematch. A two loss team with wins over OU (on the second try), Oklahoma State, and West Virginia MIGHT be enough, but I'm not willing to rubber stamp it. If they drop another, bye bye.
9) THE Ohio State Buckeyes: The sky was falling, but winning out would include beating Illinois (woo....), Michigan (better), and Wisconsin (nice!). Beating Wisconsin also removes them from our path (maybe) which is cool and all. The committee loves the Buckeyes because they know the Urban Meyer coached teams are capable of beating anyone (and losing to anyone...). I think the Buckeyes are in a beautiful spot to sneak in if they can run the table with wins over PSU, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one is really interesting. The Irish have nice wins over BC (eh), USC, and Michigan State, but everyone saw that Miami game. Did it dishearten the Irish? Can they come back from that and beat Stanford? If they take care of business, their resume looks very much like the Buckeyes. It will be very interesting.
11) USC Trojans: The Trojans are coming on strong, but wins over Stanford and... Washington or Washington State? I seriously doubt they have a legit shot, but a Pac12 champion has an outside outside outside shot with the name/athletes that USC has.
Thanks for playing but miracles are needed
12) Oklahoma State: I love Mike Gundy's squad, but they aren't winning the Big 12 and there's nothing to hang their hat on.
13) Washington Huskies: crap schedule with best win against WSU or USC and NOTHING else
14) UCF: Nice season but no.
15) Penn State: ha. Did they beat anyone other than Michigan?
"So what does it all mean Basil?"
Let's look closely at the top two tiers: Almost all teams are in the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or ACC (exceptions: Notre Dame, USC): translation: cannibalism. The only conferences that could even feasibly get 2 teams in are the SEC and ACC (and that would only happen with 1-loss Bama or 1- loss Miami--and they wouldn't be locks). This is why Ohio State lives! Let's admit it: 2 spots are locked up (barring a ton of stupid upsets): SEC Champ and ACC Champ. Oklahoma is a lock with a Big 12 title with the win in September in Columbus. This leaves one spot for craziness and OSU is ready to pounce. What is the optimal scenario for the Buckeyes? For whom should we root?
Best case sceneario
Obviously, if any of those 10 teams (not OSU) lose some stupid game to another team not listed above, that would be great (and funny). Root for that.
1) Ohio State must win out: This is obvious but often forgotten. Buckeye fans will come up with a multitude of crazy scenarios to ensure their team a shot but forget that one loss, and there is absolutely no coming back.
2) Bama wins out: "But we hates Bama, precious?" Root for Bama to clear out Georgia and Auburn. A one loss Bama has a smidgen of hope as well. Don't risk giving 2 spots to the SEC. Take that spot as the SEC's and make sure Saban gets it. We'll just beat them in the Sugar Bowl again right?...RIGHT?!?!
3) Oklahoma wins out: This knocks the specter of TCU out of the picture (prevent reverse 2014?). Also, it's almost impossible to imagine OSU jumping a 2-loss Oklahoma even if they win the Big Ten. We all remember Sept 9th and the committee will too. But what about Penn State last year? The committee looks at head to head when the records and resumes are similar. OU and OSU's resumes will be similar. Last year, OSU had a much better resume and one fewer loss than PSU. They followed the principles then, and I believe they will again.
4) For safety sake, the U wins out (barf): This knocks Clemson out and prevent a comparison of 2 loss B1G Champion OSU vs. 1-loss Miami. OSU would have better wins overall, but the loss to Iowa will be tough to ignore.
5) Would be nice for Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State to win out (prior to championship weekend): Help keep those wins on the resume looking good.
If this happens, your playoff will be:
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. ?????
Who's left to fight?
B1G Champ OSU
1 loss Wisconsin
2 loss Notre Dame
2 loss Georgia
2 loss Pac12 Champ USC (or Washington)
2 loss Clemson
By no means is this a slam dunk for Ohio State, but I like our chances.
vs. Wisky: Lasting image of defeating the Badgers in their only real test. A 59-0 pasting would be nice as well. This could get interesting, but I doubt it would.
vs. Notre Dame: This one is close, but playing the "conference champion" card is big. Notre Dame has better losses but OSU has better wins (with Wisconsin on the belt)
vs. Georgia: They have no conference championship, a win of Notre Dame in September, and...Nothing else.
vs. Pac12 Champ: zzzzzzzzzz look at the resumes
vs. Clemson: Tigers have no conference championship and a worse loss. Slight edge to Clemson in body of work, but that B1G championship...
Overall:
We only control one part of this mess.
Just.
Win.
Baby.
I believe everything laid out above will be the 'Vegas' favorite with the possible exception of Miami over Clemson. We know we can't plan for everything to go right, but this is real. Even if the best case scenario doesn't happen, the Bucks have a better than average shot if they win out. Based on the numbers, the Buckeyes have a 62% chance to make the playoffs if they win out regardless of the other teams outcomes. If you gave me those odds after last week, I'd say you were crazy, but then again...it's college football. Sit back and enjoy the ride. It may not have the desired outcome, but man is it a lot of fun!
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