Week 13: Turkey and Gravy

Standings
1. Draper (41-15, 2-10 upset)
2. Seeberg (38-18, 5-7 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (37-19, 0-12 upset)
4. Hoying (35-21, 1-11 upset)

It's that wonderful week of the year once again. This year we're thankful for turkey and gravy. The gravy is the chance for a sixth straight victory over our rivals to the north after already punching our tickets for Indianapolis next week. And the turkey? That's whatever fool Khakeesi trots out at QB to get devoured by the OSU D line. Happy holidays to rivalries near and far!

FRIDAY

South Florida Bulls @ Central Florida Knights
Draper: This epic battle of group of 5 squads has petered out in a way as the Bulls dropped a contest to Houston, and that is not allowed in the world of the NCAA second tier.  While Charlie Strong has the Bulls playing well, Scott Frost is bettering that in Orlando.  Has Frost checked out to head to greener pastures in Lincoln? I don't think so.  Still work to finish.  Neither of these schools has beaten anything with a pulse but one will escape victorious.  I'll lean on the Knights.  USF: 28 -- UCF: 38
Hoying: The road to the New Year's Six goes through Orlando. South Florida entered this season as the hot crew with the big-shot coach (Charlie Strong) ready to produce a splash. But the schedule was soft, and a loss against Houston took the shine off the apple. UCF, to the contrary, has been shredding foes left and right behind the county's #1 prolific offense. The Knights' quarterback could be the best player you've not heard of this season, and he'll be energized to deliver an AAC east title and take one step closer to a prestigious bowl bid, so long as his coach hasn't absconded to Nebraska by Friday. USF: 24--UCF: 41
Schweinfurth: I have to be fully honest that I have no idea on these two. UCF is higher ranked and not playing on the road. We'll go with that. USF: 35--UCF: 45
Seeberg:  This is, in a weird way, by a WIDE gap, the intrastate Florida contest that is absolutely crucial to sort out potential New Year's Six bowls.  Anybody have that preseason?  Didn't think so.  South Florida looked to be in the driver's seat in the non-power 5 until tripping up against Houston (yours truly had that upset).  UCF gladly took the torch and hasn't looked back.  No reason to believe they will stop now.  USF: 31--UCF: 42

SATURDAY

Alaba_a Cri_son Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Honestly, I don't know if there is a good reason to pick the Tide. Their best win is likely over a healthy FSU squad that is fighting for bowl eligibility.  Auburn nearly dethroned the reigning holders of the crystal football, defeated the H8 Dawgs of UGA, and have just generally been the better squad all year.  And yet....It's still Nick Saban and the Tide.  I just get the feeling that this is the contest in which everything gels and the grown adults that reside in Tuscaloosa step up and assert their power over the Tigers.  Both defensive lines are solid, but the offensive line for the Tide is always ridiculous.  Bo Scarborough and Jalen Hurts get a couple big plays to try to erase the bad recollections of the Kick 6 (news flash: they won't erase everything), but Saban and Co. return to Atlanta for the trillionth straight SEC title bout (at least is feels like that).  Ala: 17--Aub: 14
Hoying: Fun fact: Nick Saban has never defeated an Auburn squad that finished a season with at least 9 wins. And here approaches Auburn at 9-2 already. One of these two has been tested on a few occasions this season, with varying results (Georgia good, LSU bad). The other ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwl, but hasn't shown a lot of vulnerability until very recently. Generally, the script for the Tide is to have a scare against an inferior opponent (read: any opponent) and then blow the doors off the next one. The difficulty is that the Tigers are actually an equal challenge to the Tide, they're playing on their own field, and they have a world of possibilities open if they keep winning. This year's Tide isn't quite as good as the group that lost on the Kick Six back in 2013, but they've tightened their grip on their rivals since, and even that standout Auburn crew needed an agelessly fluky play to walk away with a victory. Just don't bet against Nick Saban. Ala: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: This one deserves a PAWWWWWWWL. It's not quite Ohio State vs TTUN but this one is always entertaining to watch. The Tigers just love to torture the Tide in Jordan-Hare (think Kick Six). Auburn's D is legit and showed it by keeping Georgia in the dog house. I still have questions with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball and the Tide D is really banged up. It hurts the Bucks, but I think the Tigers pull this one out. Ala: 17--Aub: 24
Seeberg:  Wow, can another Iron Bowl live up to the hype?  If Auburn's destruction of Georgia is any indication, the answer is "probably".  The difference with this Tide squad as to years' past is they tend to start faster rather than allowing groups to hang around to potentially snatch a W at the end.  Auburn is plenty good enough to hang in this one regardless, but Saban and Co. know that- the shellacking of the Bulldogs will have their attention.  Saban has struggled to beat good Auburn squads, but the law of averages is bound to start creeping in soon, and the average is Saban winning...a lot.  Definitely tuning in for what should be a classic.  Ala: 24--Aub: 20

Notre Da_e Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: I have a thing against Stanford.  I can't explain it, but I always think they're fake good.  Look through past posts and you'll see that track record across the years.  I picked USC and Wazzu to win without a lot of support this year and was rewarded.  That being said, I have no idea what the Irish are.  They had a close loss to UGA and a blowout win over SC...but also a trashing by the Hurricanes and another close call vs. Navy.  I will bank on recent history in which ND looked shaky and pick the hated Cardinal.  Bryce Love has a decent showing to shore up his spot next to Baker as he hoists the top award in college football.  ND: 17--Stan:24
Hoying: Here we have the What-Could-Have-Been Bowl. Stanford's Bryce Love and ND's Josh Allen have both been stellar this year but have taken enough Saturdays off to be cease to be a threat to Senor Crotch Chop in the chase for everyone's favorite individual honor. As far as what's still in view for the rest of the players, Stanford can play for a Pac-12 title if the Huskies take care of business this week (they will, see below), and the Irish still have the outsidiest of outside chances to crash the playoff if lots of bed pooping happens these next two weeks. As for this one, both schools are obviously going to sell out to stop the run, and we saw what happened when the Hurricanes did so: ND fell totally to pieces. Would Stanford do any better if they faced a real defense? I don't know, but until I see it happen, I'll take what I know to be true over what I only suspect. Pride will cost you, ND. It's a Cardinal sin. ND: 20--Stan: 28
Schweinfurth: Can the Irish stop Bryce Love? No, but I do think they can slow down the beast. The Stanford has looked pretty eh in a few big contests. I'll take the Irish. Lot's of running in this one though. ND: 21--Stan: 17
Seeberg:  Despite there not being a ton on the line here this is an intriguing contest.  Two power run squads trying to exert their will on each other.  I believe Stanford possesses the superior running back in Bryce Love, but ND has the better lines, particularly on the defensive side.  That fact should be just enough to grind out another W.  ND: 27--Stan: 21

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies
Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one knows about (is that  nonsensical? Probably).  I stayed up last night with the Pac 12 After Dark crew and learned 2 things: 1) Rod G. is a terrible stick in the wet dirt and 2) Washington isn't very good.  Wazzu, on the other hand, is led by everyone's favorite giver of advice.  While Washington's Browning is capable of delivering the ball, he's not surrounded by enough talent to consistently succeed.  The Cougars high-octane, frenetic offense is fun to watch with Leach playing 20-D chess (while all his notes are on a used dinner napkin).  I think the Cougars get a second crack at the Trojans to hopefully rinse and repeat the first outing.  WSU: 41--UW: 34
Hoying:  This ain't your slightly older brother's Crapple Cup. Last year was the first instance since 2000 that the winner was ranked in the top 25, and now both of these traditional punching bags enter ranked in the top 20. The Huskies have looked great this season against a total cupcake schedule that would have Wisconsin drooling. The Cougars, on the other hand, have the Pac-12's best win (beating USC) and a couple of puzzling blowout losses to Arizona and Cal. Coach Leach will be pulling out all the stops to get Washington State to its first Apple Cup victory since 2012 and its first Pac-12 title since 2002, but Washington is just too good on both sides of the ball to let WSU's pass-only attack and ruthless pass rush be causes for concern. This should be fun, but extra fun for the purple and gold. WSU: 27--UW: 35
Schweinfurth: This will be high scoring for sure, and all because of the Cougars. The Huskies play just enough defense and probably force a few turnovers. I think this is PAC-12 after dark, so enjoy loss sleep if you want to watch the Huskies win the Apple Cup. WSU: 28--UW: 42
Seeberg:  The Apple Cup.  It's actually relevant again!  I still don't trust any club run by crazy Leach, but they appear to have righted the ship after a couple of blunders.  Washington, in turn, was one of what appeared to be roughly two-thirds of the PAC-12 that had a chance at a 0 or 1-loss season and a CFP birth before blowing it.  WAZZOU's wins are better (USC, Stanford) but their losses are worse (Cal by 34?? Ouch.)  When all else fails in a relatively even rivalry tilt, go with the squad playing in friendly confines.  Huskies in a fun one.  WSU: 31--UW: 35

Cle_son Tigers @ South Carolina Ga_ecocks
Draper: Question I posed earlier this season: if I gave 10-1 odds on the Tide and Tigers in the title for the 3rd straight year, would you take it? At that point, I think intelligent cash said yes.  While I'd like better odds now, there is no real reason to think we won't see round three.  Dabo's boys are incredibly talented and had a hiccup (see Urban in Iowa City).  It was a bad loss, but the unit overfloweth with talent.  USC-East has been a pleasant surprise with Crazy Will at the fore.  Can they rise up to derail the Tigers? I still say no.  The Tigers has an overabundance of firepower with Etienne and Bryant while the defense is just plain nasty.  On to Charlotte and the Canes for the playoffs.  Tigers: 31 -- 'Cocks: 17
Hoying: Is South Carolina good enough to stand toe-to-toe with Dabo and take their first win since Spurrier walked the sidelines? Well, no. On the one hand, SC kept it respectable against Georgia, but they also barely sneaked by Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida. As for the Tigers, they already Tigered as hard as they could Tiger against 4-7 Syracuse, so I wouldn't look for that to be a deciding factor here. Onward toward a huge showdown against da U. Tigers: 38--'Cocks: 20
Schweinfurth: I agree with Hoying on this. South Carolina just doesn't have the horses to hang with the Tigers. Spurier didn't exactly leave the current staff with a full cupboard. Tigers win big. Tigers: 42--SC: 10
Seeberg:  The current trajectories of these two schools create a "rivalry in na*e only" situation here.  Not a lot to break down.  The Tigers are good, the 'cocks are not.  That's that.  Cle_: 31--: SC: 13

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: The Buckeyes return to the ugliness of Ann Arbor for another epic battle for nothing but the respect and love of our loved ones for the rest of our lives.  J.T. Barrett looks to finish with an unsullied slate vs. the hated Wolverines with four straight wins (a feat no OSU QB has achieved).  This could solidify his legacy in the Scarlet and Gray forever (honestly, it should be solidified already, but why not build it to new unseen heights?).  Let's be honest, the Bucks enter with the superior offense (by a LIGHT YEAR) and probably equal defense.  The Wolverines do sport a very good defense, but JT, Dobbins, Weber, and Parris should be able to dent the facade of the sun and gold.  On the other side of the ball, the Bullet defensive line should wreak absolute havoc in the OKorn backfield.  I predict 4-6 sacks as the Blue offensive line is just awful.  The Wolverine defense will keep this scary close for a quarter or two, but talent wins out. JT rides off into the sunset (of Indianapolis) as we're not done yet.  OSU: 31 -- TTUN: 20
Hoying: Spot the difference if you can. In 2013, a juggernaut, possibly BCS bound Buckeye squad headed up north to face a Wolverine group with losses to Penn State and Little Brother. Near identical script so far... And 2013 Ohio State barely escaped with a one point victory after Devin Gardner practically drained his life force to will the Wolverines to victory.  The difference this year? These Buckeyes know their various vulnerabilities. The 2013 trip to Ann Arbor was the canary in the shaft, the opening scene in a 3-act play showing what an absolute joke the Buckeye defense had devolved into. Hopefully, HOPEFULLY, 55 points courtesy of the Hawkeyes have taught the 2017 Buckeyes their lesson already. Since Brandon Peters got a little tap on the head last week, and Wilton Speight is still recovering after going all "The Dark Knight Rises" against Purdue, the Wolverines will probably have to look to John No-Scorin O'Korin to lead the once-victors to another upset of the century. Against this Buckeye defense? I wouldn't count on it. Last year showed what can happen when JT and friends can't get any consistent attack going, but the Bucks (still) have weapons aplenty beyond what You-Know-Who can handle. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't be close. It shouldn't...OSU: 28--TSUN: 13
Schweinfurth: Was that a good enough send off for JT last week? It depends. He can have a better send off if the Bucks win and he is the first OSU QB to go 4-0 against the Harboogers. The Blue guys have a very good defensive line and, yes, JT will take a few sacks. That offense for TTUN is just horrendous. I don't care if Peters plays or O'Korn, there is a large talent gap between the Bucks and Blue. I still relive the 90's when this contest arrives every year (90's kid, sorry) and dread the final score. The Harboogers are still in denial about "The Spot" and I love it. View last year through that lens and forget about the train that is flying up the tracks this week. Hit hard, run the ball, don't get ejected (Bosa), and show Harharharbooger that a life long contract is a joke if he ever wants to win a B1G East title. 42 is a lucky score for Urban. GO BUCKS!!! BEAT BLUE!!! OSU: 42--TTUN: 17
Seeberg:  Good lord, the season is nearly over again!  When did that happen??  Such is life, the good die young.  After the Illinois shellacking and *ichigan Week officially began, the local post-contest radio show was debating whether it was better to play TTUN right away or savor the full week.  I think it depends.  I will always, ALWAYS be wary of TTUN, having grown up in the Cooper years when our beloved Buckeyes frequently had a superior squad only to lose, often in odd or spectacular fashion, so when the Bucks are the clear favorites I dread the build-up, lest we experience a letdown.  Now, however?  In Urban we trust.  This year's version of The School Up North boasts a very solid defense, as usual, and...I guess technically an offense?  Which, hilariously, is also typical of the squads that Harbaugh has trotted out since he arrived.  I've long since lost track of where their current QB actually resides on their full-strength depth chart (side note:  TTUN fans will naturally use that as an excuse which is hysterical given our recent title with a 3rd-string QB).  Once again, feed J.K. and Weber, execute a few throws, and please avoid OT- the road setting is less forgiving.  On(to) Wisconsin.  OSU: 27--TTUN: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Georgia Tech over UGA
Hoying: Texas Aggies over LSU
Schweinfurth: WVU over OU 
Seeberg:  Navy over Houston
P.S. for a special news flash, read the first word of each OSU selection :)

One Loss or Two? Ohio State and the Playoffs

By now you've surely read Dr. Draper's outline of Ohio State's playoff chances, about how everything will fall nicely into place if Ohio State, Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma win out (and Wisconsin drops another game for good measure).

Well, suppose that doesn't happen. Suppose that, in order to make the playoffs, 2-loss Ohio State has to finish ahead of at least one 1-loss Power 5 team. Oh, the screaming you'll hear (especially from Penn State fans, although it'll be hard to notice because they never shut up). "Ohio State made the playoffs last year instead of Penn State, and Penn State had a conference championship AND a head-to-head win! The Committee has spoken, and a 2-loss team can't take a 1-loss team's spot!"

Now, I've been a fan of the Committee's work over these last 3 years; each year they've put in the same 4 teams that I would've (although in a different order each year). Which means that, yes, I agreed with the Committee that Ohio State deserved a playoff spot ahead of Penn State, even with no conference championship. Does this mean that this season, for the sake of consistency, the Committee would need to rank an 11-2 B1G champion Ohio State below a potential 1-loss conference also-ran?

No. Not necessarily. To understand why not, we need to revisit what an anomaly the 2016 Ohio State team was.

In 2015, Ohio State had maybe its most talented team ever (see also 2003, 2005). They opened with a smashing road win over Virginia Tech and closed out their regular season with a crushing road win over top-15 Michigan to finish 11-1. Their only loss along the way was on a last-second field goal to the B1G champion, #3-ranked Michigan State.

And Ohio State finished ranked #7, notably behind Pac-12 champion 11-2 Stanford.

Fast forward a year. 2016 Ohio State again finished the regular season 11-1 after losing to the B1G champions. And yet these Buckeyes finished ranked #3, ahead of B1G champion 11-2 Penn State. Why?

Because they had the most absurd resume of any 1-loss team in College Football Playoff history.

The 2016 Buckeyes had wins over #6 Michigan, #7 Oklahoma, and #8 Wisconsin, the latter 2 on the road. And their one loss was on a blocked field goal on the road at #5 Penn State. Only one other 1-loss playoff contender has ever had even TWO wins over top ten teams: 2015 Michigan State beat #5 Iowa and #7 Ohio State, and their loss was to 6-6 Nebraska.

2016 Clemson's resume sure didn't stack up to OSU's, with their best win being over #11 Florida State and their loss to #23 Pitt, but Clemson finished #2 while OSU finished #3, showing that the Committee wasn't giving Ohio State a free pass for not winning their conference title championship. The message was clear: the Committee really, really wants to put conference champions into the playoff, but if you have a better record than the conference champion, AND you're an absolute world-beater who got hosed out of a conference title on tiebreakers, they'll make an exception.

A rare exception, I'd wager. It's almost a shame that this rogue conference non-champion barged into the playoffs so early in the format's existence. 2016 Ohio State is going to set a lot of fan bases up for disappointment. My guess is that 10 years down the line, we'll have only seen another 1 or 2 non-champions in the playoff, and then only under striking circumstances (if we don't have a watered down 8-team abomination by then).

Which leads us to this year. Are there any potential 1-loss conference non-champions who could stand between an 11-2 B1G champion Ohio State and the playoff? First, let's list all the Power 5 teams that could finish with one loss and not win their conference:

• Alabama (could lose to Auburn and go 11-1, or lose to Georgia and go 12-1)
• Miami (could lose to Clemson and go 11-1)
• Wisconsin (could lose to Ohio State and go 12-1)

How do these teams' resumes stack up?

• Alabama: wins over...Mississippi State and LSU? Maybe a win over Auburn if they then get knocked off in the title game? Their loss would be pretty good, either Auburn or Georgia.
• Miami: a great win over Notre Dame...and then? Maybe VT will crack the rankings again, but the overall resume is still terribly thin. A loss to Clemson would be eminently forgivable.
• Wisconsin: wins over... ... ...Northwestern? Michigan, who won't be ranked if they lose to Ohio State? Iowa (hey, great win over OSU)? Not a lot of meat on these bones. And losing to Ohio State would not help Wisconsin's case.

Not a particularly strong candidate among them. These teams are looking an awful lot more like 2015 Ohio State than 2016 Ohio State, which means that I don't see any of them making the playoff if they don't walk away with their conference championships. Heck, even Notre Dame and USC would be knocking on the semifinals' door before these teams.

And that's the rub. Ironically, this year, the bigger threat seems to come from the potential 2-loss conference non-champions. A 2-loss non-champion getting in over a 2-loss champion would be real uncharted territory, but then again, so would any 2-loss team getting in at all. Let's go to the resumes:

• Clemson (could lose to Miami and go 11-2)
• Well, the Auburn win could look really good, especially if the Tigers win the SEC, but otherwise these Tigers' next best win is NC State? Va Tech? They'd have lots of wins over 6-6 or so bowl teams, but not many flashy splashy victories. And the Syracuse loss is the worst of any playoff contender.
• Oklahoma (could lose to TCU (or whomever) and go 11-2)
• Here's your flashy splashy wins: TCU, Oklahoma State, Ohio State. Oklahoma should be ranked ahead of Clemson now (and my guess is that this corrects itself before championship week) and would likely stay ahead of Ohio State even with a loss, thanks to the head-to-head road win and comparable resume otherwise.
• Notre Dame (cannot win a conference championship without a conference)
• Resume looks great now with losses to two top teams and wins over USC, Michigan State, and NC State. But I'm not sure if it beats out wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State, even if the Irish does pick up Stanford along the way.
• Penn State, Washington (could win out and not play for a conference title)
• Hahahaha no.

This post is not intended to make the case that any of the above teams should or should not make the playoff ahead of Ohio State. Rather, the point is that just because 2016 Ohio State jumped Penn State to take a playoff slot despite no conference title, it doesn't follow that the 2017 Ohio State Buckeyes need to quietly step aside to let a similarly situated Alabama or Miami past them. It's not always (usually, but not always) as simple as one loss versus two.