Week 14: Ok. Cool. Hook Em!

Standings:
1.) Draper 41-14 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 38-17 (2-11 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 34-21 (5-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 33-22 (3-10 upset)

"Who is Number One?"
"You are Number Six."
"I am not a number. I am a free man!"

- The Prisoner

We all know who Number One is (by a million) but the Buckeyes find themselves at Number Six, with one week to go and only one team ahead guaranteed to lose. Come Sunday morning, all of college football nation will be looking to the Committee for information and speculating about whose side they're on (but that would be telling), and no matter how desperately the teams in the playoff hunt want one of those four coveted spots, at least one of them won't get it. Let's hope that by hook or by crook, the Buckeyes will.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: #17 Utah Utes vs. #11 Washington Huskies
Draper:  The Pac12 has been a dumpster fire of mediocrity.  Out of the fire has emerged the preseason favorite Huskies in a very odd and unsuspected return to the top.  No real reason to think the Utes will take care of the heavily favored Huskies in their 1st Pac12 Championship appearance (surprising that this is the first rodeo for Utah).  Jake Browning has at least one massive brainfart a game, but that won't be enough to keep the Huskies from a Rose Bowl berth.  UU: 13--UW: 30
Hoying: Last year, conference championship weekend pitted 7 of the top 8 teams against each other in 4 huge battles (also TCU was there), while the Pac-12 was off in the corner eating paint chips. This year it's even worse; neither of these teams is sniffing a playoff spot, and more disgustingly, it's a rematch! Time to break out the How Pointless? meter once again, wherein I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is.
How Pointless? As pointless as last year, which is to say, Super Pointless. Washington smooshed Utah back in September and went on to finish a game ahead of the Utes in conference record while playing in the much tougher division. The first time these teams met, Washington RB Myles Gaskin ran wild, and after seeing him blitz WSU in the blizzard last week, I'd expect him to do it again. UU: 17--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: I really haven't watched a lot of Pac-12 games this year because having two kids 3 and under plus "Pac-12 After Dark" is a really bad mix. With that said, I have tried to pay attention mostly because of what Washington State was trying to pull off. The Huskies put an end to that in Pullman last week. Look, Utah is a pretty good team that has been boosted by playing in a really crappy division. Washington was supposed to be a playoff team again. With that in mind I'll take the Huskies. UU: 13--UW: 35
Seeberg: Wait, Utah is in the top 20?  Definitely missed that.  In any event, it's been an odd year for the Huskies, as most would say they have underachieved, a rare feat for any Chris Petersen squad.  They did manage to salvage their season by beating their in-state rivals in the Apple Cup Blizzard Bowl last week.  Most teams' primary goal is to win their conference, however, and that goal is still squarely in sight.  Though roughly 156% pointless when it comes to the playoff, it's still a game worth winning, and I expect the Huskies to play like it.  UU: 20--UW: 34


SATURDAY  


Big 12: #14 Texas Longhorns vs. #5 Oklahoma Sooners
Draper:  Let's be honest, this is the only real game that a)matters and b) people expect a competitive game.  Rematches usually favor the team that lost the first matchup so point Sooners.  I have seen the Sooners in a few of their recent games.  Their offense is incredibly dynamic but MAN does that defense suck.  Texas isn't much different (see Big 12).  Honestly, it will likely be another Red River Shootout (fine me, Big12) and that's likely going to favor the Sooners offense even though the Longhorns pulled out the last second win with Dicker the Kicker. I'll be rooting hard for the burnt orange but I think they come up just short after breaking all the scoreboards in Jerry World. Murray cements his Heisman runner-up status and the Sooners keep their hopes alive (to be crushed by Bama).  UT: 48--OU: 55
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately pointless by Big 12 standards. The Big 12 championship game will always be pointless since the conference plays a complete round robin (the only way it wouldn't be pointless would be another round robin of 3 or more teams tied at the top) but at least this year is interesting in that the team with the better record lost to the other team. It's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season (stupid 1976 Rose Bowl) and reeeallly hard to upset the same team twice in one season. Texas didn't really outplay OU the first time; they got the lucky bounces and, to their credit, made the most of them. That being said, all the pressure is, once again, on the team in crimson. Texas is ahead of schedule, and a win vs. a loss is nothing from a bowl placement perspective: they're going to the Sugar Bowl either way (unless Oklahoma somehow wins and misses the Playoff). A Big 12 title and a win over your hated rival isn't nothing, but Oklahoma will have one eye over their shoulder at the charging Buckeyes and the rest of hell that could break loose should the Longhorns prevail. I am loath to pick against Texas Tom in any big games, as the Horns always overperform in these situations, but Oklahoma is just too dang unstoppable on offense to drop two games to Texas in one season. On to Miami. UT: 41--OU: 45
Schweinfurth: I am so conflicted by this one. Oklahoma can put up points in bunches, but good lord that defense is hard to watch. I saw a stat from Max Olson of the Athletic that has Oklahoma 113th(!) in stop rate (% of defensive stop that allow 0 points) allowing 2.67 points per possession. Let that sink in, Oklahoma allows almost a field goal every possession. That is just horrendous and it has gotten worse since the Sooners fired Mike Stoops. The problem here is that it is very hard to beat a team, especially a rival) twice in the same year. I can see Texas winning this game because of Oklahoma's D being that bad. The points the Sooners put up are just too much. Take the over on this game (it's only 77 and that could just be the first half). UT: 56--OU: 63
Seeberg: Rams vs. Chiefs, part III, or Red River Rivalry, part II, take your pick.  The beer and points will flow heavily in this one.  Lost in the Buckeyes' search for the playoffs again is that it will take a Herculean offensive effort from a Tom-Herman-led squad to pull it off.  Sadly, even hanging half a hundred on the Sooners may not be enough, as Kyler Murray has hit a groove, feeling more comfortable on the big stage seemingly with every passing week.  I'd like to think the pressure of this one will get to him, but you just know OU will be razor-sharp (at least on the one side of the ball at which they're competent) against their rival- a rival responsible for the only blemish on their schedule.  Enjoy the points, bemoan the victor.  UT: 45--OU: 52

SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #4 Georgia Bulldogs
Draper:  While UGA had a nice season in the trash SEC East, they lost to their one big cross division opponent (and got slaughtered).  Bama on the other hand, shut out the team that destroyed UGA...uh oh. I watched a little more Bama in the Iron Bowl and my opinion hasn't changed.  They are heads and tails above the pack right now, and that includes Georgia.  Why haven't we heard much about Georgia recently? They've played 1 team that anyone cares about (sorry Florida and Kentucky) and they were blown out.  Roll Tide.  Bama: 48--UGA: 24
Hoying: How Pointless? Low. The Tide have a better record, and beat the team that beat Georgia, but the Dawgs played a tougher schedule, and yes, even arguably in the tougher division with the resurgence of Florida and the surgence of Kentucky in the East. Since losing to LSU, Georgia has gone on a tear (excepting a bit of a slow start against Auburn), riding a balanced offense and a very good defense to the doorstep of the playoff. It's going to be a shame when they lose by a million. Bama: 42--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: Georgia can totally screw everything up for the committee and this isn't the Mark Richt coached Dawgs. They can actually win big games. The problem is the self-aware terminator that Bama has been this season. Georgia does have a chance...if Tua's leg explodes (it has been close a couple of times). Bama is better and this is just an appetizer before it gets to devour the 4 seed in the playoffs. Poor Dawg. Bama: 45--UGA: 13
Seeberg: Bama by a million.  Sadly for the Dawgs, a solid case can be made that they are one of the best four teams in the country, but it won't matter with a second tally in the L column after this one.  Do we (Ohio State, that is) want Bama?  Absolutely not.  But it's who we'll get if things break our way.  Yay?  Bama: 38--UGA: 17

ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper:  Wheee....another 'who cares, Clemson is gonna roll game'. Most advanced metrics are lauding Clemson as being on the same level as Bama and I scoff at that, but they are certainly in the upper echelon.  The rest of the ACC on the other hand....is not.  The SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten all have some semi-relevance this year but the Pac 12 and ACC have been crap and Clemson respectively.  No reason to think Sunshine will do anything but wreck the Panthers on their way to a 2 seed.  The defensive line is too good and Pitt is bad (put Pitt in?).  This will be done by halftime, but Dabo's backups will keep chugging.  Clem: 55--Pitt: 23
Hoying: How Pointless? If this is the price of keeping as many ACC Coastal teams as far away from Clemson as possible during the regular season, a 12-0 vs. 7-5 conference championship is A-OK in my book. I mean, what is there to honestly say about this game? Pitt is not a great team. They're not even a good team. Their best game this year was holding Notre Dame to 2 field goals in the first half and then watching the game inevitable slip away from them (thanks for nothing). If Clemsoning still existed then we would be at DEFCON One for it to make its appearance in this game, but I wouldn't hold your breath for this one. Just look away; the Buckeyes are playing at the same time. Clem: 48--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know how much there is really to say about this game. Clemson has rolled through the ACC for the most part and this should be ugly. Clemson, big. Clem: 42--Pitt: 14
Seeberg: Woof.  Scary that a division champion in a power 5 conference can get to a title game unranked.  If a power 5 title game had to be at the same time as the Bucks' I'm glad it's this stinker.  I'm still not 100% sold on the 2018 version of Clemson, with a bunch of meh wins (albeit with no losses), and a win over a 7-5 Pitt team isn't going to change that. Regardless, that victory is all but inevitable as the Tigers yawn their way into the playoff again.  Clem: 41--Pitt: 17

Mountain West: #25 Fresno State Bulldogs @ #22 Boise State Broncos (Nothing like a little palate cleanser before the main course.)
Draper:  Didn't we see this before? Boise has been sneaking around the chicken coop in the Mountain West letting Utah State soak up some love from the 15 people that actually watch Mountain West football until crushing their hopes and dreams last week and knocking them out of their conference championship.  Now, the Bulldogs hope to return to the glory years of the late 1900s when they were the scrappy little school that was good...until Boise took over.  Sorry.  Boise is the captain now, and will remain so.  FSU: 20--BSU: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Arrrrrggggghhhh. Not this AGAAAAIIIIN. Not only is this the same matchup as last year's Mountain West championship, these teams JUST PLAYED 3 weeks ago. Seriously, Utah State, with all the love you were getting, you couldn't come through on the blue turf last week when it really counted? I didn't believe in the Broncos last week, to my detriment, so I'll ride with them to take two from the Bulldogs this year. FSU: 21--BSU: 24
Schweinfurth: This game feels like Groundhog's Day. Over and over and over and over and...I haven't spent any time even looking at the Mountain West this year because, meh. Broncos I guess? FSU: 14--BSU: 17
Seeberg: I was on the Boise State train for years and, like my colleague Hoying, lost belief in them only for them to rise up and disallow the Aggies from supplanting them atop the Mountain (West).  If USU couldn't do it, I don't expect Fresno State to either.  Broncos pull through another close one.  FSU: 17--BSU: 24

B1G: #21 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #6 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper:  Ok. Everyone is expecting the Buckeyes to wallop the Wildcats on their way to another B1G championship, but I'm not so sure it will be that easy.  While the Buckeye offense SHOULD (read: should) make mincemeat our of the purple cats, the defense is build to beat power teams (like TTUN) than it is to beat the 'scrappy gym rat' type teams.  The problem is that Fitzgerald squad is the definition of scrappy. What makes the difference is that this Buckeye team got a taste of what it could be last week, and they know what's in front of them.  They won't come out with the same intensity as the Michigan game, but I think it will be surprisingly close.  The key for me is the same (and this is what led to the blow out last week): get going early.  For the eh....8 or so weeks before the Michigan game, the team looked like poo and fell behind early giving the other team hope.  End the hope for Cinderella early and it's goodnight sweetheart.  Honestly, I see the Bucks with the potential to break the scoreboard here, but how long can Northwestern hang? Depends on if the tone is set.  If so, it will be done in the first half.  If not, hold on for another Big 12 Title game.  I think the Bucks get right, go fast, and take control to cruise to a nice win....but not enough for the playoff unless someone falters.  OSU: 55--NW: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Not at all, really. Despite the difference in overall records, these two come in with identical 8-1 conference records and didn't play each other during the season. Remember when I said I was terrified of the Purdue game, and it turned out I wasn't quite frightened enough? I don't get that feeling at all for this one. Northwestern runs the same plodding boring offense that Michigan does, only with far worse talent. And they have trouble protecting the quarterback (giving up 29 sacks so far). The defense is good, I guess, but super banged up (even worse than Ohio State), and their DBs don't have the speed to do anything resembling hanging with Zone Six. My only concern is where this Buckeye team's heads are at. They've shown the ability to play down to anyone (well, not Rutgers (Northwestern did though)), but whenever they find themselves in an underdog role they play out of their minds. They are most certainly not in that role this Saturday, unless they can tap into the "we need to crush these guys to make a playoff statement" mentality. That didn't work so well last year (a 6 point win against a slooooowwww Wisconsin team). It did work in 2014, but again, Ohio State was actually an underdog in that one. Don't expect a repeat of The Game, but that's what makes The Game, special, you know? An annual Happy Thanksgiving present to our favorite khaki'd turkey. NU: 20--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This has the feeling of 2014 all over again. The Bucks seemingly need a miracle to make the playoffs behind a cannon armed QB. Okay, Haskins isn't the third string QB, he's much, much better. I feel like this is a great match up for Ohio State. Northwestern is a very good team, but they just don't have the athletes to match up with the speed the Bucks have on the outside. I could realistically see Olave playing the Devin Smith role Saturday and just blow by the 'Cats' secondary. You just get the feeling that Ohio State turned the dial up to 11 last week. Is it sustainable, well they have the talent to keep it rolling. The Bucks have to at least cover, and I think they will. Let's get that second straight B1G title! NU: 10--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Well guys, we need 59-0 again...but sadly it ain't gonna happen.  NW has an uncanny knack to play EVERYONE close.  Up 17-0 before choking away a win against TTUN, yet they only beat Rutgers by 3.  Yes, unfortunately you read that right.  The Big Ten West champions ONLY BEAT RUTGERS BY THREE BLEEPING POINTS.  Winning this game with myriad style points seems within reach, but I just don't see it.  Fitzgerald is more willing/able to employ at least a handful of plays with some imagination, unlike last week's supposed offensive genius/QB guru/all-around absolute wacko Jim Harbaugh.  The Bucks should be able to play with a reasonable amount of game control, using a suddenly proficient run game to take some of the load off of the Dwayne Train.  But a couple of big plays keep the Wildcats in it into the 2nd half before the speed of Ohio State puts it away late.  Go Bucks, onto...the playoffs?  Cue the Jim Mora rant.  NU: 28--OSU: 41


Upset Special
Draper: Marshall over Virginia Tech
Hoying: Memphis over UCF
Schweinfurth: Not a lot to pick from so Cal over Stanford
Seeberg:  Louisiana over App State

Bonus:
MAC: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls
How Pointless? Low-to-moderate. This isn't a rematch, but the Bulls have a 1 game lead in conference record, and, unlike Northern Illinois (and Northwestern) didn't lose 3 games out of conference.
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
How Pointless? Super pointless. App State beat the Cajuns by double digits on their way to a 2-game lead in conference. Yawn.
C-USA: UAB Blazers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
How Pointless? Quite pointless. These teams played LAST WEEK, and Middle Tennessee crushed the Blazers. It is fun to see UAB's quick ascendancy after their football program was literally canceled and resurrected in the last 5 years.
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
How Pointless? As Peak Pointless as you can get outside of the Big 12. Not only did these guys play already this season, but UCF finished a full 3 games in conference ahead of the Tigers. And these teams played twice last year and UCF won twice. This is becoming Boise State / Fresno State level annoying.

Grading the Bucks: Week 13 -- TTUN

That's the stuff....stick it in my veins

Offense: A
MVP: Dwayne Haskins, QB
What. A. Performance!  I knew our offense was capable of great things, but the wolverine defense has been great all year.  That didn't stop Heisman Trophy finalist (I'd assume), Dwayne Haskins, from making mincemeat out of Don Brown's defense.  The major surprise from the game was the offensive line that was just spectacular given the circumstances.  Winovich and Gary were quiet all day which is a testament to much (MUCH) improved play by the Big Uglies.  Welcome to the party, Chris Olave and have yourself a game.  Mike Weber had a quiet 96 yards on the ground which went somewhat unnoticed but was a huge accomplishment.  Honestly, the drive of the game was the FG added just before half (should have been 6, but important nonetheless).  After allowing Michigan to pull within 2 just to a gaffe of epic proportions, the Bucks drove down the field in about 40 seconds to score points in the waning seconds of the half.  Talk about stabilizing the momentum shift.  An enormous series. 6 passing TDs and 62 points against the country's number 1 defense? I'll take it.

Defense: B
MVP: Malik Harrison, LB
The defense gave up 39 points but played very well (most of those points came in garbage time--i.e., the latter 2/3 of the game).  Chase Young played well, but there wasn't a great deal of pressure on Shea Patterson most of the game.  The star of the defense was Malik Harrison who was phenomenal making tackles all over the field.  It was a welcome change to see the linebackers step up in a HUGE game.  Even the secondary stepped up (Sheffield was burned on 2 amazing catches where you just tip your cap and move on).  The reason for the defensive resurgence was more due to the Wolverines style of play (1950s football) than to turning a corner on defense, but I'll take it.  The Bullets of 2018 are designed to stop a power running attack and attack short passing routes which made this game a walk.  The problems come against spread offenses with 5 foot tall burners (see Purdue, Maryland, everyone else).  Northwestern might prove a little sneaky next week because power team they are not.

Special Teams: ??
MVP: Chris Olave, WR
The unit with the biggest crap yourself play (Demario McCall's fumble on the kickoff) and nearly sealing the deal (blocked punt for TD).  The fumble could have gone down in history as the biggest bonehead play in the history of the rivalry.  While Michigan was being absolutely dominated in the first half, they were able to pull within 2 with less than a minute to go based on a ridiculous mistake.  The punt block set all right and saved this unit from ignominy.  I don't know how to grade a unit with the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows, but here we are.

Coaching: B+
The coaches finally worked up a scheme.  Maybe it was the last 5-10 weeks in which we looked clueless all coming to a head, but the team was ready to go.  I watched the UM/IU game and saw the Wolverines get destroyed on the crossing routes as well as every pass in the middle of the field.  The coaches made the adjustment and exploited the weakness.  Somehow they got the linebackers anticipating the plays (correctly) and forced some discipline.  Somehow the better athletes looked like...the better athletes.  Amazing what a little work from the coaching staff can accomplish.  I was really excited to see the Tate Martell package and...oops.  This was the part of the plan that didn't work at all.  They needed to read the room after the initial failure (no one believes he'll pass....maybe try it?).  When the Martell package stalled on first attempt and Haskins is cookin', maybe it's time to put that away for the remainder of the game and fix it before rolling it back out.  The second appearance of Martell was just sad, and I felt for Tate as I think this could be used effectively (later this year even), but not on last Saturday.  Michigan is sound in the QB run defense and wasn't having anything to do with him.

Overall: A
The defense still gave up a ton, but a dominant win over Michigan always gets an A.  As I tweeted, the best part about this win was that they REALLY believed it was their year.  They truly thought the years of punishment were at an end...and we smacked them, gave them a swirly, and sent them packing.  The fans are starting to question if they'll ever win again....I hope not.

GO OHIO! BEAT THE WILDCATS!

The Alabama Problem, and Other Playoff Issues

It just wouldn't be the College Football Playoff without Ohio State being somewhere near the conversation, would it? We've been doing this for 4 years and the Buckeyes have never finished higher than #3 or lower than #7, and it looks like a win over Northwestern would guarantee them a spot squarely within that range again.

But where? And why is the ceiling at #3 and not #2? After all, only Notre Dame is undefeated and virtually guaranteed a spot at this point. How does Ohio State really stack up against the other potential one-loss teams? Let's take a deeper dive.

FIRST TOTALLY STUPID AND OBVIOUS POINT

Undefeated Alabama and Clemson are obviously #1 and #2 in some order. Undefeated, win your P5 conference, you're in at the top (sorry, 2014 Florida State, these guys have style points out the wazoo (sorry sorry, WSU) which the Committee thinks matters for some reason).

But suppose Georgia, Pitt, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all win this weekend. That puts Notre Dame at an easy #1 but how should #'s 2 through 6 be apportioned among Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma?

WHOM DID YOU PLAY AND WHOM DID YOU BEAT

You know our philosophy here at Let's Go Bucks! We grade on resume first and go to the dreaded "I test" when all other metrics have failed us. With that in mind, let's do a blind resume comparison (the order is randomized, and please pretend you can't figure who they are right away), keeping in mind the aforementioned 5 teams would all be 12-1.

(note: some liberties were taken in assuming no other upsets occur next week in order to finalize opponents' records)

TEAM A
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 83-74

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: Close road win against 3-loss Power 5 team

Loss: Close loss to 4-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM B
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 84-61

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: At home against 3-loss Power 5 team (2 of these, one close, one blowout)

Loss: To 5-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM C
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 75-82

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: At home blowout win against 2-loss Power 5 team (this team also has a close road win over a 3-loss Power 5 team)

Loss: Blowout loss to 6-6 Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM D
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 91-54

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: Neutral site win against 1-loss Power 5 team (this team also has blowout home and road wins against 3-loss Power 5 teams)

Loss: Blowout loss to 3-loss Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM E
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 81-64

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 7

Best win: Road blowout win against 3-loss Power 5 team (3 home blowout wins against 4-loss Power 5 teams as well)

Loss: To 1-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

Team D is clearly out in front by themselves, so we'll put them at #2. That leaves teams A, B, C, and E to fight it out for the #3 and #4 rankings and the final playoff spots. Each has a healthy number of wins over bowl-eligible teams (although look at Team C's opponent win-loss; they must have played some craaaaaap along the way). What's better: beating a 2-loss team at home or a 3-loss team on the road? Probably the former, but not by a whole lot. Team C has one of each; Team B has none of either but two good home wins. Team E has the best loss, but they're not a conference champion, and their resume isn't strong enough to overcome such a glaring weakness. Let's pencil them in at #6. Non-champion Team B really isn't much better; they don't have a signature win or a good road win, so they go to #5.

That puts Teams A and C in the Playoff. Who gets to be #3? That depends on what's better: a more respectable loss or better top wins. Were this March Madness, the Committee would point out that you're not going to see any more garbage teams at this point; you're going to see the top dogs, so we'd better know you can beat them. But this isn't college basketball. Every game matters immensely, and you can't wish away your weakest performance. Oh, and margin of victory won't help you here, either. Team A is winning by 17.4 ppg, Team C by 17.5. They both played one common opponent, with Team A winning by 25 on the road and Team C winning by 12 at a neutral site. I'd probably give a slight nod to Team C, but I could easily go either way. 

In case these teams' identities aren't painfully obvious by now, the foregoing analysis gives us the following playoff rankings:

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

THE ALABAMA (AND CLEMSON) PROBLEM

As you noticed above, if every possible 1-loss team ends up in the hunt for the Playoff this weekend, I would put Alabama and Clemson at the bottom of the list. Why? Simple. They would be the only ones without a conference championship, and the rest of their resume would not support them jumping a conference champion. Yes, Alabama would have the best loss (unless Georgia beat them by 50 or something). Yes, Clemson would have wins over 9 bowl eligible teams. But neither would have the best win among the 1-loss teams. The only other thing Alabama has going for it at this point, the factor driving them merrily along at #1 all season, is this aura of invincibility from blowing out everyone they've played. The funny thing about auras of invincibility is that they tend to fade when you lose. As for Clemson, they've been on fire as of late as well, but the ACC, more than any other Power 5 conference, didn't have anything resembling a strong #2 team to give them any sort of challenge.

And don't get me started on the "conference non-champions have made the playoff before" train. In 2016, 1-loss non-champion Ohio State got in over a 2-loss champion Penn State. In 2017, 1-loss non-champion Alabama got in over a 2-loss champion Ohio State. In 2015, 1-loss non-champion and NFL talent stockpile Ohio State finished ranked behind (1) 1-loss champion Michigan State, (2) 1-loss conference runner-up Iowa, and (3) 2-loss conference champion Stanford. In 2018, if Alabama or Clemson ends up with 1 loss, they're very likely going to be looking around at a lot of 0- and 1-loss conference champions (and undefeated Notre Dame) pushing to crowd them out. If Alabama or Clemson loses and still finds themselves in the Playoff the next morning in front of Ohio State / Oklahoma, then you can start your "The fix is in!" takes.

JUDGMENT TUESDAY

Of course, everything above is my opinion, a little friendly advice to the Committee before this week's all-important rankings. Yes, this week's all-important rankings, because the rankings the Committee puts out this Tuesday are of paramount importance. If this week's rankings have Ohio State at #6, Buckeye fans should be very nervous about their playoff chances. Why? Because Oklahoma plays 9-3 and possibly top 10 Texas, and Ohio State plays 8-4 and probably ~#20 Northwestern. This isn't like 2014 or 2017 when Ohio State entered Championship Weekend with the opportunity to get another statement win and gain ground on a competitor. If the rankings this week are #5 Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State, and both teams win on Saturday, I have a hard time believing anything will switch on Sunday morning. If the rankings are reversed on Tuesday, it's still not quite win-and-in for Ohio State, since Oklahoma can avenge their loss and beat a better opponent than Ohio State can, but Buckeye Nation can keep hope alive and fight for enough of those ephemeral style points to keep the Sooners at bay.


THE BIG 12'S GAMBLE PAYING OFF

I thought the Big 12 resurrecting their conference championship game even though their conference schedule was already a 10 team round robin was an incredibly stupid idea. The prevailing wisdom was that a conference championship would give the Big 12's top team (or teams) a 13th game to pad their resume vis-a-vis the other Power 5 champions. I thought the extra game would be a pointless rematch with the #1 team likely having already beaten #2, and the game would be just as likely to derail a team that had already earned a playoff spot by season's end (hi, 1998 Kansas State). But, barring a giant upset by Northwestern this weekend, it appears that I was wrong and the Big 12 was right. Without Oklahoma's chance for redemption on Saturday, there would've been a very real chance that they entered the week in the catbird seat at #5 and sat at home watching the Buckeyes wow the Committee past the Sooners and sneak intothe #4 spot. This time, Oklahoma will be the team making up ground. Of course, if Ohio State loses and Oklahoma faceplants against the Longhorns again, the Big 12 will look really, really, really stupid.

Week 13: Eleven and One

Standings:
1.) Draper 38-11 (2-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-14 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 32-17 (3-9 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 31-18 (5-7 upset)

Ohio State is eleven and one in its last twelve clashes with you-know-who (actually thirteen of their last fourteen). But they're chasing a different eleven and one this Saturday, as is their bitter rival. The survivor will be eleven and one on the season and off to fight the grape ape on their way to a hopeful playoff bid. The loser...will be bitterly disappointed. Go Bucks.

FRIDAY

#6 Oklaho_a Sooners @ #13 West Virginia _ountaineers
Draper:  Now we enter into the wheel of Big 12 destiny.  One would expect the Sooners to be the standard bearer, but Holgo's squad can end all hope for the conference in the CFP.  WVU is a tough group to predict with the highest of highs on offense and....a defense? Not really.  Good news! OU has no defense. It's 11:12 and ... please don't castigate this blog NCAA. Another shootout to rival the big NFL contest earlier this week with the potential for a higher load of insanity.  Can Coach Riley or Holgo get a stop? Will it even be of value? Who knows! Let's get crazy.  Bye bye, Big 12.  OU: 48--WVU: 51
Hoying: Half a loaf is better than none. After squandering a lot of opportunities to put away their in-state rivals two weeks ago, the Cowboys finally dealt a real blow to the Big 12's playoff chances by snakebiting West Virginia in Stillwater. Now the conference's playoff hopes rest squarely on the Sooners, and they're going to have to go through an angry West Virginia and (barring any resurgence of KANSAS BEAT TEXAS) their archrivals to get there. Oh, and their defense looks positively Buckeye-esque of late, giving up 40 points to Kansas last week. Fortunately, their offense, led by their QB (probably the signature player of the season, since the Tide could be starting a wet sock at QB and still win every week by 500,000 or so) is able to plaster over any cracks on the other side of the ball (as long as they're not playing Texas). You're not going to keep up with that scoring attack. OU: 45--WVU: 38
Schweinfurth: The Sooners appear to be ripe for an upset this week. Everything is set up. Friday night, on the road, at Country Roads. WVU has the offense to give the Sooners issues, as shown by Texas. This is a true Big 12 shootout. Bucks get help from West Virginia. OU: 49--WVU: 52
Seeberg: Chiefs vs. Ra_s, part two.  I expect WVU to be angry after struggling against the Sooners' little brother last week.  Angry enough to pull the upset?  Quite possibly.  It also could be wishful thinking as a Buckeye fan, however.  But to be fair, the _ountaineers' D is, on paper, better than OU's, and they just could possess the drive to show up and scrounge out enough stops to give the Buckeyes' flatlining playoff chances a boost.  WVU late.  OU: 38--WVU: 44  

#16 Washington Huskies @ #8 Washington State Cougars
Draper:  I just can't help it.  I fall for it every year and it's happening again. I want so badly for Coach Leach to reach the pinnacle and he always chokes in this Apple Cup.  Coach Peterson always has his Huskies ready to pounce on the Cougs early, but I continue to drink the Kool-Aid.  The crazy scientist prowls the Palouse for to give us his beautifully designed trickeration and one day it will work.  That day is Friday.  Washington State finally wins won for all the Apples and a showdown with who cares in the Pac12 title.  UW: 31--WSU: 48
Hoying: Like we all predicted before the season started, a Washington school enters the Apple Cup looking to clear their last big hurdle to a possible playoff berth. Wait, which school? Washington State??? They just keep winning, and with style points, too, pasting 55 onto the hapless Arizona Wildcats last week. Oh wait, that was the FIRST HALF. Whoever picked that as his upset of the week is an idiot. He would be wise not to repeat his error. Washington isn't quite Arizona but they have been about as blah as a half-decent contender can be while still controlling their own destiny for a Rose Bowl bid. I know that Washington always inexplicably wins this battle but the advantage in the Cougars' favor is as wide as it's been since their last Rose Bowl in 2002, when they...also lost to Washington. Ah, you know what I was getting at. UW: 24--WSU: 35 
Schweinfurth: The Huskies are broken. This was supposed to be the year Washington had a run at the playoffs. You have to be able to score lots of points or play outstanding defense to beat the Cougars. I just don't think the Huskies have it. Crazy Mike Leach rides on. UW: 21--WSU: 42
Seeberg:  I've spent a lot of the year picking against the _ad scientist Coach Leach and his Cougars.  That strategy has, sadly, not been effective.  Gotta eat some crow and give Wazzou their due- plus I don't trust the Huskies to stop that Cougar offense indefinitely.  Leach and Co. pull away late.  UW: 27--WSU: 41


SATURDAY  


Auburn Tigers @ #1 Alaba_a Cri_son Tide
Draper:  At this point, who cares? It's the Tide's world.  They toyed with their food like a satisfied cat last week before chowing down and spitting out the bones.  What's that you say? They play their rival this week? And the rival kind of sucks? I have a feeling that Tu'a and Saban will continue to pour this on as retribution for the kick six (people--Saban--don't forget).  Aub: 10--Ala: 48
Hoying: Nick Saban's Tide have never beaten Auburn when it finishes with 9 or double digit wins, and never lost to Auburn when it doesn't.The Tigers are sitting at 7 right now, so they could get to 9 wins if they win their bowl and...and...well, this presents the Tide with a kind of choose your own prophecy, whereby they can either lose to good Auburn again or beat bad Auburn again. Should they be worried? Do you read this blog? Aub: 6--Ala: 31
Schweinfurth: Can we just say last week was a fluke for the Tide? I do. Tua's been injured and that played into a rough first half. This contest is in Tuscaloosa and I have no faith in this Tigers team. They can't keep their QB upright. I will adapt Hoying's phrase for this week: Tide by a ton. Aub: 13--Ala: 42
Seeberg:  As long as we continue picking contests with the Tide, I will hold to our principle here at Let's Go Bucks:  Ba_a by a _illion.  It's really that easy.  Aub: 17--Ala: 37

#7 Louisiana State Tigers @ #22 Texas A&_ Aggies
Draper:  Bienvenidos a la....rankings, Aggies! Enjoy another brief stay! LSU was returned to Earth after facing the juggernaut (and perhaps realizing the Joe Burrow is kinda average?--still a step up for LSU), but they're still significantly better than what Coach Fisher has in College Station.  Coach O and Co. are ready for a real get-back contest after last week's appetizer.  Does LSU belong in the top ten? Sure.  Will they sniff the playoff? No.  Should they? Also, no.  But they can easily take care of the Aggies in the process.  LSU: 24--Aggies: 13
Hoying: Another ranked opponent for the Tigers, which, as a top priority, gives LSU the opportunity for another quality loss! Add another 3 or 4 such losses and they could crack the top 4! LSU has sort of fallen out of the national consciousness after getting the standard 2018 Tide treatment and suffering a bit of a hangover against Arkansas the next week, but they're still a perfectly serviceable group, with that usual LSU defense. The Aggies are back to their SOP of losing to everyone of consequence (except Kentucky) and I would expect their annual end of year nosedive to continue in style this week. LSU: 24--Aggies: 20
Schweinfurth: Why are the Aggies ranked? Oh yea, we have to reach the quota of SEC schools each rankings release. *eye roll* LSU is the better squad here. I will roll with Joe Burrow on this particular week. LSU: 28--Aggies: 9
Seeberg:  Ah, the "wheel of rando_ ranked SEC squads" landed on the Aggies this week.  Once again, this will be another short-lived error.  Hoying said it well, the Aggies, tend to freefall in Nove_ber, and this year is no exception.  LSU completes the ka_ikaze-esque nosedive.  LSU: 31--Aggies: 20

#21 Utah State Aggies @ #23 Boise State Broncos
Draper:  Does anyone know about these foes? Does anyone really care? No and definitely no. After receiving an absolute gift last week with the final play penalty awarding the Aggies a victory, they have had a year for the ages.  A seven point loss to a reasonably lousy Spartan squad is the only wart for a group that has had no success that I can ever recall.  Boise has had the success but a rather so-so year with two losses and no wins of note.  Can they recapture the blue field wizardry and pull out another conference title? Sure.  Why not? USU: 28--BSU: 38
Hoying: Finally we get to the showdown at the forefront of everyone's cortex. Who wins the right to be the #2 Group of Five squad behind UCF and thus get a big fat nothing for its efforts (except a conference title berth, whoopee)? The Aggies survived last week on a heartbreaker last ditch throw by Colorado State, since the receiver who caught it had already stepped out of bounds (hi Johnnie Dixon), but they've otherwise looked solid since dropping their opener against East Lansing's finest. Granted, the opponents have been awful, but that doesn't stop UCF slapping their chests and it shouldn't stop Utah State, either. Boise has struggled to find the endzone a few weeks this year, leading to a couple of costly losses to Gundy's Pokes and San Diego State. And it's going to cost the Broncos on Saturday as well. USU: 30--BSU: 20
Schweinfurth: I really have no clue about either squad. I'll roll with the Broncos. USU: 21--BSU: 35
Seeberg:  The Broncos have pretty much run the _ountain West for awhile now, but the "other" Aggies are hoping to put a stop to that trend.  Don't just look at the school's na_es here:  Boise State has a suspect D and fewer offensive play_akers than in years' past.  Just about the witching hour for that blue field and it's squad.  Aggies end Boise State's reign.  USU: 34--BSU: 27

#4 That School Up North @ #10 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper:  Serious question: does anyone doubt that the Buckeyes are capable of winning this contest? If you do, you need to take a long hard look at the talent on this Buckeye squad. Granted, this is one of the better groups of Wolverines entering the fight and the Buckeye defense hasn't attained close to what was expected, but do you think it's out of the area of possibility? No way.  I watched TTUN last week...in the Big House...vs. a Hoosier crew with the equal 5-5 record as the Terps and it was no drubbing.  Yes, the winged ones won by 11 on a late field goal, but if even one of those fluky turnovers didn't happen in College Park, we're talking about a proportionate win over the group that beat Texas.  The Bucks are better at QB and WR while TTUN has the defensive and O-line advantage.  Yeah, I like their positional advantage too...but we're in the Shoe...and we have recent history and belief on our side.  You can be all Debbie Downer, but I will stand tall.  They want revenge.  I will not concede and neither will the Bucks.  It will be a shootout, but a costly turnover and a surprising late defensive stand allows the Bucks to keep the agony in Ann Arbor.  TTUN: 34--OSU: 38
Hoying: I was a first-year Buckeye sitting in the south stands the last year the Buckeyes were an underdog to the Wolverines in the Horseshoe. Then, about 60 seconds into the contest, Troy uncorked a 68-yard beauty to a rando white guy called Gonzalez, and the rout was on (those 2 did pretty well the next 2 years, too). Can we hope for a repeat this year? No reason not to; the pieces are all there for our beloved Buckeyes to be truly great as long as they can shore up an identity on offense and find positions in which you would expect football players to stand on defense. The Wolverines have looked terrific...at the Big House...when not playing Indiana, but playing on the banks of the Olentangy is a bit harder nut to crack. Urban's never lost at Ohio State as an underdog (they were favored in the 2016 playoff against the Tigers, lol) and this Saturday could be the bellwether for whether he's still got the golden touch or the pains of coaching are finally catching up (again). At the end of the day, Dwayne is still better than Shea Patterson, even if the latter will be throwing (and running) against air all day, and Haskins has already beaten these clowns once before, on the road. Let's see another legend born in the Shoe. TSUN: 27--OSU: 30
Schweinfurth: The week I wait for every year is here. I don't care what the Buckeyes did last week. I don't care about the Purdue loss. I don't care about the defensive lapses. This is the week legends are born at Ohio State. Everyone points out how great that other school's defense is. They are good and they pass the eye test. They have not faced an offense like the Buckeyes. Running the ball has been very good the last few weeks and Haskins had a return to what we witnessed the first part of the year. The other school's offense is like what the Bucks faced in Happy Valley, and they handled it well. I do think we see the Buckeyes step up in the Shoe. It's what the Bucks do. Urbs doesn't lose to his rivals. Let's send the Booger dude back north with yet another loss!! GO BUCKS! BEAT BLUE!!! TTUN: 21--OSU: 35
Seeberg:  I...yeah.  As insane as this sounds, there are reasons to be opti_istic about this clash at high noon (as it da_n well should be) on Saturday.  The Bucks can finally run the ball again, Urban is 6-0 as an underdog since taking over at Ohio State, and Harbaugh is, well, Harbaugh.  Oh, and Chase Winovich could be out?  Definitely wouldn't hurt the Bucks' chances.  _eanwhile, TTUN FINALLY has an actual living, breathing offense to go with it's typically stout D.  But anyone reading this knows that already in all likelihood.  It all boils down to whether or not the Buckeyes can find an edge through the doubt, being an underdog, etc., or if the sa_e, ridiculous issues that have bogged this incredibly talented squad down all year (penalties, no offensive balance, WHAT IN ALL HADES IS OUR BACK SEVEN DOING HALF THE TIME, and so forth) rear their collective ugly heads.  I want the W, I will be in the Shoe (section 2C, say hi!), but even the ho_er inside just cannot get there.  The Scarlet and Gray keep it close, but TTUN, regrettably, resets the clock to 0 days since _ichigan beat Ohio State.  TTUN: 34--OSU: 30

Upset Special
Draper: Florida State over Florida
Hoying: _ississippi over _ississippi State
Schweinfurth: USC over ND (why not?)
Seeberg:  South Carolina over Cle_son

Grading the Bucks: Week 12--_aryland

Sheesh....and yet....

Offense: A-

co_VPs: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Johnny Dixon, WR, and JK Dobbins, RB

Other that the turnovers, hard to say that this side of the ball was at fault here.  JK ran really well but sorry _issed the _ike Weber change of pace.  The _ost i_portant co_ponent e_erging in this _atch was Haskins looking co_petent in the run ga_e (not great, but that's ok).  Just having hi_ as a threat is a HUGE boon to the offense and the sche_e.  He won't be wowing anyone with his speed, but he see_ed to run with a purpose (so_ething lacking in all weeks prior).  Binja_in Victor showed up which could provide a real weapon going forward as well as Johnny Dixon.  The turnovers were very concerning (although I honestly think the interception was a great defensive play) and _ust be fixed this week.  Extra possessions cannot be surrender like that.  Also, Isaiah Prince: what happened? He was showing such i_prove_ent early on and then crashed and burned.  Pray for hi_ (and Haskins) next week against Gary. _aybe also try to turn down the stupid on the false starts a bit too?

Defense: D-

_VP: none

Once again, the defense returned to for_ after a nice showing vs. a hapless Spartan squad.  The pursuit angles and gap discipline is just atrocious.  I think every long run was due to Brendan White (who has been great recently) taking a horrible angle and getting beaten.  _ichigan's running backs are too good for us to allow those big plays. They will capitalize.  It can't happen next week if we want to keep the streak alive.  Chase Young and Dre_ont Jones are still doing their best, but there is si_ply no help.  The back seven need to be average and we can survive.  This week was not average.

Special Tea_s: D+

Don't re_e_ber _uch but the fake punt was ridiculous.  _ore in the coaching section, but co_e on.  Kicks were fine.

Coaching: D-

What. Are. You. Doing? This tea_ shows no i_prove_ent in sche_e and or preparation.  Every week I say "If we can finally get off to a good start this week..." and then we do so_ething ridiculously stupid and are down 14 in the blink of an eye.  Failing to start fast with these athletes is pure coaching.  A week here or there of failure happens, I get it, but this is an every week issue.  Then, while _ounting a co_eback (shouldn't be necessary against _aryland....or _innesota....or Purdue...) the tea_ looks surprised at the opponent's plan of attack.  Our coaches are so_e of the highest paid in the country.  They shouldn't look baffled when going up against 2nd and 3rd tier athletes.  Case 1A was allowing the fake punt.  What are you doing co_ing after that punt (on any punt if we're to be honest)? 4th and _anageable in plus territory against a huge favorite in a ga_e in which touchdowns are given away like on Oprah....OF COURSE THEY'RE AT LEAST CONSIDERING FAKING IT!!  This is Coaching 101 and we're failing.  _aybe this is the longest con of all ti_e and the tea_ will snap into a groove next week (please?), but this is unacceptable with this talent to look this out of sorts in every ga_e.

Overall: C-

Offense good, defense bad.  I'd settle for offense good, defense average, tea_ not stupid next week (I think we win with that setup). Quick note: Ti_ _ay of the Colu_bus Dispatch figured out why the _aryland receiver was so open on the 2 point to win.  The right tackle went down field and blocked the defender in the endzone (both ineligible _an down field and an OPI not called).  Go watch the replay (nu_ber 58).  It didn't _atter, but i_agine if they would have executed the pass....hello Big Ten refs.  I hope I'_ not bitterly disappointed in a call this next week...

Week 12: Cupcake Wars

Standings:
1.) Draper 34-11 (2-9 upset)
2.) Hoying 33-12 (2-9 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 29-16 (5-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 29-16 (2-9 upset)

The good news is that all top 10 teams are playing this week (though none are playing each other). The bad news: how many of them are playing teams with winning records? Two: Notre Dame (see below) and Clemson, who plays Duke. At least Michigan, Washington State, West Virginia, and Ohio State are playing decent teams. The rest of them? Wooooooof. Tune in at noon to see the Buckeyes hopefully get to double-digit wins for an FBS-best fifteenth time this century, then go ahead and hibernate until Thanksgiving.

#12 Syracuse Orange vs. #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper:  Honestly, I don't believe there are 3 ranked matchups this week, but if Syracuse can sneak in... That being said, the Orange are pretty solid with Eric Dungy.  Coach Babers has the Orange completely outpunching their class, but the Irish are locked on the goal.  While they will get destroyed by Bama or Clemson, Brian Kelly and Co. can take care of most teams in the country with relative ease.  The Yankee stadium gimmick is dumb, but it won't be enough for the Orange to pull off the upset.  Reasonably close for 3 quarters before the Irish pull away.  Cuse: 20 -- ND: 34
Hoying: Yes, you read that right. #12 Syracuse. As in, two spots behind our beloved Buckeyes. This will be the last ranked opponent the Irish face this year, and the last significant obstacle to Notre Dame crashing the playoff for the first time. It's not a road game for the Irish per se; the game is in the state of New York, at Yankee Stadium, but the Irish are wearing Yankee uniforms for some reason? I guess that makes sense, after all, most Irish fans are Yankee fans (and Cowboy fans, and Duke basketball fans, and Golden State fans) anyway. How's the game going to shake out? You may remember Syracuse as the one team able to put a real scare into Clemson this season (other than some early season weirdness at Texas A&M). The offense has been stellar but the D hasn't been able to stop anybody. That's not good news against the (not-so-) new look Notre Dame offense under Ian Book. Man, a lot of teams sure had their offense jump start after swapping out quarterbacks midseason. Clemson, Notre Dame, Purdue, Iowa State...makes you wonder what would've happened last year if Urban wasn't so stuck on JT...oh wait, right, the offense was better last season than this season. Never mind. Anyway, Notre Dame wins this one, inching closer to further narrowing the tightest playoff race yet. SU: 27--ND: 34
Schweinfurth: If you've been following along this year, you would know that I am not a fan of this Notre Dame team and have picked them multiple times to get upset. Northwestern had their shot and then forgot how defend a zone read. I like Syracuse and think Dino Babers has done great things at a school with lots of tradition, but not much recent success. I would be all over this upset if this game was in the Carrier Dome, but it's at Yankee Stadium (yawn). That totally kills any home field advantage. Notre Dame wins, but close.  SU: 28--ND: 31
Seeberg: I've had this one earmarked for an "upset special" pick for weeks, just didn't imagine the 'Cuse would be ranked and it'd be a regular game for us to pick here at Let's Go Bucks.  It boils down to a couple things.  The Orange tend to get up for big games (see Clemson last year), and, well, I really don't trust Brian Kelly to not screw things up somehow.  Book may be back, but a week off for injury combined with still not being 100% is a dicey recipe.  Cold weather, lousy conditions in a baseball diamond no less, and the Irish will be too out of sorts to play as well as they're capable.  Orange pick up arguably the best win of the year outside of Jeauxy Burreaux's dismantling of Georgia.  Cuse: 27--ND: 23

#24 Cincinnati Bearcats @ #11 Central Florida Knights
Draper:  This matchup features the juicy undefeated and 1 loss teams...who have beaten a grand total of no one.  UCF has been trouncing most of the garbage they've played (sans Memphis), but Fickell and Co. have been winning close.  While the Knights are not the 2017 National Championships as those in their mother's basement want you to believe, they're a pretty solid squad with that chip squarely on their shoulder.  Being a ranked team for the first time this year will be nice for them...until UC drops out and they can whine about no respect even more.  I'm actually quite impressed with Fickell's turnaround in year 2, but the train ends here in one of the biggest games in Orlando this year.  UC: 24--UCF: 34
Hoying: How long can you keep a team motivated at the highest levels when they've got practically nothing to play for? UCF is currently riding a 22(!) game win streak that features a """"""national championship"""""" but let's face it, the Committee isn't going to let them anywhere near the playoff, even if they are only one freaking spot behind our beloved Buckeyes at present. And this week they're facing a hungry Cincinnati team fresh off of two 4-8 seasons (and 2 blowout losses to UCF), looking to crash the big boy bowls for the first time since being Tim Tebow's going-away party patsies back in 2009. The 'Cats have the defense to win this one, and I think Fick will get them over the hump as he continues to head toward bigger and better things. Good for him (but don't beat us next year or you're dead to me). UC: 34--UCF: 31
Schweinfurth: UCF belongs in the playoff, blah, blah, blah. Yes, they had an argument last year, but has anyone actually watched one of their games this year? That defense is B. A. D. bad. I've watched a couple of UC's games (I don't know why) and they have looked impressive. Luke Fickel is doing great things down there. Add to the fact Marcus Freeman (UC's D Coordinator) is my guy and I've got the Cats all day. UC: 35--UCF: 24
Seeberg: For Luke Fickell's surprising 2nd-year reclamation project down I-71 a ways from the Horseshoe, this game needs to stay in the 20s to give the Bearcats a shot.  Cincy plays solid D, certainly a reflection of their head coach, but 30+ for UCF is likely to break the Cats' backs.  Anyone have this one as the ABC primetime game on their calendars 3 months ago?  Yeah, me neither.  Expect a good one, but just a little too much UCF offense in the end.  Night Knights indeed.  UC: 27--UCF: 31

#16 Iowa State Cyclones @ #15 Texas Longhorns
Draper:  What to do with Iowa State? They always seem to snakebite someone (hello OU last year and WVU this year), but it always goes down at home.  They ruined Brandon Weeden's bid for a National Title in 2011..but also in Ames.  On the other side of the ball, what is going on in Texas with all the Tom Herman drama?  Returning to Darrell K Royal will be a blessing as the Horns snag another ranked win over an 'eh' team to make the year end on a high(er) note.  Ok cool.  Hook em.  ISU: 20--UT: 31
Hoying: Lost in the perpetual shuffle of "Is Texas back?" is one of the greatest turnarounds in college football this season. After a terrible 1-3 start, the Cyclones turned to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy and have been firing on all cylinders since, leveling the Mountaineers along the way. Is Texas next on the hit list? Maybe. For all the success the 'Horns have enjoyed this season, they haven't won a game by more than 7 points since beating TCU the week after OSU did. The defense has gone bye-bye of late (granted, playing Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech will do that to you; see also, generally, Big 12 football), and the team may be crumbling a bit down the stretch. Fun fact: each of these teams plays a cream puff next week, and if the winner of this game can take care of business, they can find themselves in the Big 12 title game if the Oklahoma-West Virginia game next week breaks their way (ISU needs an Oklahoma victory, Texas is pulling for WVU). That team will be Iowa State. ISU: 31--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: I'm going to keep this short. Texas is not back, but is close. Iowa State is the one team no one wants to play right now. I'll roll with Matt Campbell and the Cyclones. ISU: 38--UT: 21
Seeberg: Not sure where to go on this one as the closeness in rankings would suggest.  Iowa State is, surprisingly, trending up with a 3rd string QB (hi there, 2014 Ohio State) while Texas is, also surprisingly, trending downward, losing two in a row just two weeks after winning the Red River Rivalry in a shootout.  A narrow win in another shootout (which feels redundant to say given that it's a Big 12 contest) against Texas Tech may have righted the ship for the Longhorns.  If the weird Zack Smith/Herman feud causes a distraction, this one could well go the other way, but I'm taking Texas in a tight one (giggity).  ISU: 28--UT: 34

#10 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Maryland Terrapins
Draper:  Maryland is that program that can't seem to keep a QB healthy.  It's getting ridiculous how they drop like flies....and that's not close to the worst thing happening in College Park this year.  Some may point to this as a trap game as the Bucks prepare for TTUN, but honestly, I think this is a game to strut our stuff.  Last week was gross...but if you step back, the team played pretty well in most phases.  Win--Check, Ranked Opponent--Check, on the road--Check, by 20 -- Check.  I expect to see a few wrinkles to confuse Michigan (more Tate Martell to add another element please).  Of course there's the worry that things all fall to the opponent (see: Purdue) but if we play our game and smart (BIG if), we'll be fine.  Keep winning and let the chips fall.  OSU: 38--MD: 16
Hoying: Ahhhhhh, isn't it nice to actually enjoy a win for once? What, you didn't enjoy that mess in East Lansing? It had punting, defensive touchdowns, punting, a semi-competent running game, and more punting. Somewhere (probably Youngstown) Jim Tressel is smiling and nodding. I haven't watched a lot of Maryland football this year so I don't know much about them other than that their athletes are worse than Ohio State's, and that their coach and starting QB are both gone. Then again, Maryland starting a backup QB is pretty much par for the course for them; they've lost 6 QBs to ACL tears alone in the last 7 years. The last two times Maryland started a backup QB against Ohio State they got absolutely obliterated. The year before that, backup QB Perry Hills couldn't throw worth a lick but he ran for 170 yards and scared the crap out of the Buckeyes for a half. What does any of that have to do with this year? Not much, but writing about Maryland is boring me already. There's no reason they should win this game; Ohio State is kind of sort of finding something like a groove again and this should be nothing more than a tune-up for you-know-who next week. OSU: 34--MD: 20
Schweinfurth: I have one wish this week: get the win and keep everyone healthy. Maryland is a feast or famine team on offense. Limit the big plays and the Terps will have trouble moving the ball. Please keep working on that run game this week. I don't know that the Bucks will really show a lot on offense, just simple plays. I expect to see Tate Martell, only because there should be garbage time. OSU: 45--MD: 10
Seeberg: Fun stat of the day:  Ohio State is beating Maryland by an average of 39 points since the Terrapins entered the conference.  This Buckeyes team isn't as good as years' past, so don't expect quite as decisive a victory.  Fun stat #2:  Mike Weber has 711 rushing yards this season, and J.K. Dobbins has...712.  However, Weber has had 30 fewer carries than Dobbins, bolstering my 2-year belief that Weber is the better back (though both are clearly very good).  Regardless, the goal is to win this one going away and stay healthy.  I REALLY hope to see further improvement in red zone efficiency with the Martell package, or Tate Crate (tm) as I am officially coining it.  Score touchdowns not FGs, because we'll need 7s next week for sure.  OSU: 42--MD: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Citadel over Alabama (greatest upset of all time)
Hoying: Arizona over Washington State 
Schweinfurth: Middle Tennessee over Kentucky
Seeberg: Oklahoma State over West Virginia