Saturday, October 25, 2008

Week 9

Put-up or shut-up week. Gameday returns to Columbus for the first time since "The Game of the Century" (#1 OSU vs. #2 Michigan, November 2006) in which the Buckeyes were victorious. Here are the records so far: Gomer (60-27) Chief (62-25)

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Gomer: This game will probably be a shootout much like Oklahoma State/Missouri was a couple weeks ago. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree will have another statistically big day and will put up just enough to get by the talented Jayhawks and Todd Reesing. TT: 51 - KU: 42

Chief: This is probably the most underrated matchup of the weekend. Texas Tech puts their top 10 ranking and video game offense on the field against slow and steady Kansas. Kansas does not make mistakes which has been their shining star under the Mark Mangino era. Reesing is coldly efficient and let’s not forget that they hung with OU for most of the game last week. Harrell to Crabtree, early and often, is the TT slogan and it works, but that has just barely been enough to beat so-so Nebraska and Texas A&M in the last few weeks. Tech and their contest winning kicker go down in a shootout (but become extremely dangerous in the future). TT: 35—KU: 38
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns
Gomer: Texas has owned this series as of late and I look for that to continue today. Colt McCoy is the real deal and Oklahoma State does not have a defensive answer to counter the Texas attack. With Dez Bryant leading the OSU attack the Pokes will put up points, but the Texas D-line will get enough pressure to force some 3-and-outs and turnovers to seal the deal. OSU: 28 - UT: 45

Chief: Oklahoma State is a very, very good team and their coach is a man…he’s 41! But they are running into a buzzsaw that is Texas. Colt McCoy has been almost perfect, but watching them against Missouri, I saw that his efficiency is purely due to short, dump-down passes that make up, I’d guess, 80% of his throws. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been phenomenal at managing the game, but his unbelievable accuracy is due to the play selection. Ogbonnaya totes the rock very well, the lines block extremely well, and the Will Muschamp defense led by monster Brian Orakpo is extremely tough. The Poke defense looked pretty good against Mizzou, but the offense led by the ground game in tandem with QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant is fun to watch. I think the Longhorn D comes up big to end this OSU’s title run in Austin—the only thing that can stop Texas is the brutal schedule. OSU: 24—UT: 34
Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
Gomer: I can't really peg how I feel about this game. LSU was shredded by Florida's run game, and that isn't saying much. Knowshon Moreno has a good chance to get back into the thick of the Heisman talk with a big performance. The LSU D-Line should have Jean-Francois back and should help put pressure on Stafford, however Stafford isn't your typically rattled QB and could very possibly lead the Bulldogs in an overtime upset. UGA: 31 - LSU : 27

Chief: Oh boy, another SEC game. Let’s slobber all over them as usual. Note to college football fans: The SEC is not the best conference this year. That honor is bestowed on the Big 12. The SEC this year is living off media hype alone and thriving. The offenses stink which make the defenses shine, and the non-conference schedules are putrid. The SEC is afraid to exit the southern confines and the media is content to bolster their strength by supporting this saying “Why should they have to play anyone when the conference features the top 12 teams in the nation?” More proof was provided on Thursday night as former top 10 Auburn started strong and petered out against a mediocre West Virginia squad. Don’t worry Tommy, you’ll be back in the South soon and not have to play running QBs (or decent offenses) anymore. Ok, now that that’s out, let’s look at this game. All the focus is on LSU playing in Baton Rouge—a place where the Bayou Bengals traditionally take care of business. The big difference is that this year’s squad is not earth-shatteringly good. I like Georgia to establish the run early with Moreno and mix in some timely passes to freshman star A.J. Green. LSU has a strong defense, but giving up 17 last week to an anemic Gamecock offense is nothing to be proud of. The LSU offense led by Hatch or Lee is nothing special either. The Tigers will need Scott to pound the ball, but I think UGA jumps on them early forcing Mr. Miles to throw the ball….not in the LSU gameplan. Advantage Dawgs and Richt on the road. UGA: 27—LSU: 17
Penn State Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Gomer: For weeks and weeks I have looked at this looming matchup and could not see a way that the Buckeyes would be able to get by the Lions. Penn State is ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in just about every statistical category in the Big Ten. My biggest worry is Pryor's reaction to severe pressure, the OSU O-Line could make us all feel how we did during the USC game, but there is something special about Beanie on the big stage that makes me confident. I look for this to be an epic clash of titans that will come down to field position and turnovers. We Are... OHIO STATE! PSU: 28 - OSU: 30

Chief: Welcome back Bucks! The game in East Lansing was what every true Buckeye fan expected coming into this year. Beanie and Pryor ran all over the Spartans while the defense shut down the leading rusher in the big 10. Efficiency and excellence was the name of the game. That being said, Penn State is very balanced. PSU’s main strength is their exceptional line play on both sides. The Lions hope is to establish Royster on the ground, get a big play or 2 out of Clark and/or Williams, and rattle Pryor early. The Bucks need to get Beanie going up the middle and take some safe intermediate passes to get Pryor in the zone. Defensively, the OSU plan is stick with what’s been working. The last 2 games the Bullets have been firing strong: stuff the run, bother the QB, and get turnovers. PSU is solid, but coming into the Shoe at night is a tall order, especially when the team hasn’t faced adversity this year (100th strength of schedule) and old man Joe ‘Oops, I crapped my pants’ Paterno hasn’t won in Columbus since 1978. Edge OSU for home field, better schedule so far, and experience in handling adversity. OSU wins a close one to scare the nation—can the Bucks still go to Miami? (I still think ‘slim to no chance’, but it’s a step in the right direction.) PSU: 13—OSU: 20

Virginia Tech vs. Florida State, Gomer: VT Chief: FSU
Michigan State vs. Michigan, Gomer: UM Chief: MSU
Alabama vs. Tennessee, Gomer: Bama Chief: Bama
Notre Dame vs. Washington, Gomer: ND Chief: ND
Oregon vs. Arizona State, Gomer: UO Chief: UO
USC vs. Arizona, Gomer: USC Chief: USC

Monday, October 20, 2008

Rankings

These rankings are comprised of the old BCS formula, with one minor tweak of my own, I add in Collegefootballnews.com rankings. Something to note about their rankings, unlike AP and Coaches, CFN looks at how the team is playing, not necessarily how they could end up.

Update: All computer and human polls have been released

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Penn State
5. Oklahoma State
6. USC
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Florida
10. Texas Tech
11. Utah
12. Boise State
13. TCU
14. LSU
15. Missouri
16. Georgia Tech
17. South Florida
18. Pittsburgh
19. Tulsa
20. Ball State
21. Michigan State
22. Kansas
23. Minnesota
24. Brigham Young
25. Boston College

A few notes:
-The gap between #1 Texas has a sizeable lead over #2 Alabama, which actually has grown from last week(1.64-7.60)
-This week's most overrated team is: #14 LSU rated #10 by human polls and 18.6 by the computer polls.
-The most underrated teams is: #20 Ball State rated #26 by human polls and 18.3 by the computer polls.
-The Buckeyes have climbed to #8 in this "mock" BCS and are ranked #10 by the humans and as high as 3 and as low as 9 by the computers, another significant improvement from last week's rankings.
-Any chance at participating in the BCS National Championship game is at risk for both Ohio State and Penn State this Saturday. If the Buckeyes win it will put them in a good position to move up should more upsets occur. If Penn State wins the quality win should catapult them into the Championship game.


If the BCS selected today:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac-10)
Penn State vs. USC

Sugar Bowl (SEC)
Ohio State vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12)
Utah vs. Oklahoma

Orange Bowl (ACC)
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech

BCS Championship (#1 vs. #2)
Alabama vs. Texas

Not sure how I feel about some of those. The ACC and Big East are really struggling to have a "second" team even get considered to make the BCS so I am almost tempted to put two undefeated "mid-majors" in there. Here is how it would be in a perfect world with a play-in game to help satisfy those who demand a "play-off"

#1 Texas vs. #4 Penn State... Spread power vs. balance and smashmouth
#2 Alabama vs. #3 Oklahoma... Talk about coaching, Saban vs. Stoops

#5 Oklahoma State vs. #6 USC... Still not sure if OSU is a pretender or contender

#7 Georgia vs. #8 Ohio State... Yet another strong match-up

#9 Florida vs. #10 Texas Tech... I would pay to watch