Standings
1) Schweinfurth 4-4 (1-1 upset)
1) Draper 4-4 (1-1 upset)
1) Hoying 4-4 (0-2 upset)
1) Seeberg 4-4 (0-2 upset)
In case you missed this past weekend's action, here's a quick recap:
1. Michigan was shut out for the first time in 30 years, losing by 31.
2. Michigan State and Ohio State flirted with competence before losing by multiple scores.
3. Purdue was crushed at home by a MAC team that almost lost to Chattanooga.
4. Northwestern lost at home to another MAC team.
5. Iowa needed two touchdowns in the game's final 3:00 to avoid losing to yet another MAC team.
6. Nebraska needed a last-minute touchdown to avoid overtime with a D1-AA school.
7. Maryland needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat an AAC team that went 2-10 last year.
8. Illinois needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat a C-USA team at home (actually not bad for Illinois).
9. Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Minnesota managed to avoid crapping the bed.
10. Indiana didn't play.
All in all, not a banner day for the conference that we play in. It sucked more than anything has ever sucked before. We at Let's Go Bucks! are not SEC hive-minders, but we understand that a poor conference perception might limit Ohio State's chances to make the inaugural College Football Playoff after they win their next 11 games.
With that out of the way, let's turn to the snore-fest that is Week 3. The B1G conference season kicks off on the east coast, two blue-chip programs meet in Norman, and the presumptive SEC East favorites butt heads (huh huh).
Georgia Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Two words: Todd Gurley. SEC folk want to tout the toughness of the Gamecocks, but nothing on the field has supported that. The Dawgs, however, are led by a grown a$$ man in Todd Gurley who look absolutely beastly in week 1 over a tough Clemson team. It's in Columbia, but A&M handles the Cocks in their house. I expect UGA to follow suit and cruise to a fairly easy win. UGA: 48--SCar: 20
Hoying: I know, faithful readers, you'd rather hear our thoughts on the weekend's showdown between two undefeated SEC teams, Kentucky and Florida. But the inconsequential AP still inexplicably has South Carolina ranked after getting spanked by Kenny Football and a newly-functioning Aggie defense, so you'll have to suffer through this analysis instead. After their aforementioned loss, Cocky almost laid another egg against their directional rival, East Carolina. The Bulldogs looked fantastic in their only showing this season, dominating Clemson behind Todd Gurley and an imposing O-line (sigh). I imagine this game will play out about as you'd expect. UGA: 45--SCar: 24
Schweinfurth: We can keep this one short. South Carolina was exposed by TAMU. Yes, that was a spread system vs. a pro system but the Dawgs have the Gurley man. I fully expect Georgia to hop out to an early lead and not look back. UGA: 38--SCar: 17
Seeberg: On the surface, this looks like a solid game. Two ranked, divisional SEC foes doing battle. Unfortunately looks (and rankings) can be deceiving. The Gamecocks are still ranked solely because voters were slightly uncomfortable taking them from #9 all the way out after their debacle against A&M. Thankfully, that won't be an issue after this week. Gurley, Mason & Co. will pull away after the SC home crowd keeps them in it early. UGA: 41--SCar: 21
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Draper: Blech...scraping the bottom of the barrel here. This matchup faces the 2 programs with the most impressive out of conference wins for the B1G (UCF and Washington State....yeah....). Can Hackenburg not suck it up like he did last week? I'd say yes. I have no faith that the undefeated juggernaut of the State School of New Jersey will continue to press on. Why is this a thing? Thanks Jim Delany. PSU: 34--RSUNJ: 20
Hoying: Ah, Big Ten football the way it was meant to be played: between the flagship state programs of two original American colonies. Good news: the B1G will get a victory out of this game. Better news (or not): the NCAA burned a chicken's entrails and decided not to care anymore about child molestation negligence, paving the way for a brighter future for Penn State football, chock full of bowl appearances and full scholarship rosters. The Nittany Lions sport the most extreme road win of the young season, beating a Bortles-less UCF in...Ireland...but they've looked terribly one-dimensional so far, relying far too heavily on QB Christian Pick, er, Hackenberg. The Scarlet Knights don't feature a great pass defense, but they showed great balance in wins against Washington State and Howard (don't laugh). Let's see how long Rutgers' B1G reign of terror can last (spoiler alert: next four conference games are against Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin). PSU: 20--RSUNJ: 24
Schweinfurth: It's time for Rutgers to become B1G. This is time for Franklin and Freeze to work on that grudge match that's been brewing in the off season as well. The Knights are going to come hard at the Penn State O-Line to rattle Hackenberg. If Hackenberg stays vertical, the Lions will pull of the win. PSU: 28--RSUNJ: 24
Seeberg: Fifteen years ago, this would have been a pretty rude welcome to the B1G for the Scarlet Knights. Now, however, the Lions have been tamed somewhat. An upset by Rutgers is a distinct possibility here, but the Nittanys will be buoyed by the recent news that they can actually head to a bowl this year (what're they calling the Alamo Bowl now? Still, better than spending the Christmas holiday in Happy Valley, the most misnomered place in the known universe). Hack-a-Shaqberg avoids just enough disasters to squeak out a win. PSU: 20--RSUNJ: 13
Tennessee Volunteers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: I expect this to be another blood bath. OU has absolutely demolished their first 2 foes and UT was simply OK. Where is this game? Norman? Good God. Stoops should have no problem with the Vols at home. Knight has looked fantastic. Expect the Sooner Schooner to get tired out early. UT: 17--OU: 41
Hoying: Oklahoma entered the 2014 season as an overwhelming favorite to storm through the B12G and secure a spot in the playoffs. The Sooners have looked the part so far, plastering Louisiana Tech and Tulsa by a combined score of 100-23. Will the undefeated Volunteers provide a stiffer test? Last year's squad also started 2-0, then got shellacked by Oregon on the way to a 5-7 skid of a season. A trip to Norman this Saturday won't be any more forgiving. UT: 17--OU: 38
Schweinfurth: This is an SEC suck team versus one of the best teams in the country. It's gonna show too. Big Game Bob has the best QB in this game and that offense is gonna make a SEC defense look like swiss cheese. Oklahoma in a rout. UT: 10--OU: 45
Seeberg: Ah yes, my alma mater- at least for my master's degree. The Vols have been supposedly on the upswing for years, yet have middled around .500 for nearly a decade now. This looked like a banner matchup when it was scheduled in probably 2008 or so, but now OU is still solid and UT has fallen by the wayside. UT has some skill talent, but their O-line is as inexperienced as tOSU, and we all saw what happened there. Boomer Sooner big. UT: 13--OU: 42
Kent State Golden Flashes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Time to bounce back. KSU is just what the doctor ordered. The O-line should not (and better not!) have any problems here. Time to work on fundamentals and get back to winning individual battles. If this is close, time to panic in Columbus. The defensive line should absolutely smoke the Flashes and harry the QB all day. JT throws for 250+, Zeke/Marshall/Wilson run for 150+ and the d shuts it down. Big bounceback win that really means nothing. KSU: 10--OSU: 48
Hoying: How bad was last week? Our offensive line was embarrassed so completely that one of the linemen quit the team. Fortunately, our beloved Bucks get a chance to regroup against a truly awful squad. Dr. Lou's alma mater has already lost to D-1A newcomer South Alabama and an Ohio team that got blasted by Kentucky. Look for the Buckeyes to try to establish the run with anybody but Barrett, given that they only have about 5 or 6 running backs from which to choose. Look for the receivers to bring their hands closer together when the ball arrives, to better counteract the downward force the Earth puts on it. Look for the D-line to play containment and get a few stops on third down. Look for signs this team won't end up 7-6 after a bowl loss to a MAC school. KSU: 10--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Man I did not see that one coming last week. We all knew the offensive line would be a work in progress but 7(!) sacks. That is just horrendous. What also worries me is the offensive play calling. It's like the coaching staff writes scripts the entire game and won't deviate from that plan. This has been going on for the last two years, it's just Braxton and El Guapo masked the issues. Herman and Urban need to make adjustments other than throw bombs to a wide out who dropped every thing thrown at him. The Silver Bullets will be fine. The play calling on first and second down was great...third down was same old, same old. Time to bring some pressure and get in the QB's face. There is talent there, it just needs to be put in a better place to succeed. I expect these changes to be made. An inferior opponent will help that as well and give that offensive line time to gel. I feel bad for the Golden Flashes. Urban's boys are mad as hell and are going to take that anger out on the rest of the teams on the Buckeye schedule. KSU: 14--OSU: 52
Seeberg: Well, despite how horrendous we looked for 3.25 quarters or so last week, we were STILL within one possession with the ball with less than two minutes to play. There is another silver lining: The D-line looked much more solid than in the Navy run-game gashing we took the first week. J.T. Barrett actually handled himself reasonably well- it's not his fault we couldn't seem to run a single screen pass, or slant, or 5-yard out, or any pass play not requiring a 7-step drop for that matter. At this time last year, this game could have been a bit scary with Dri Archer running the ball and returning kicks. He's gone, and the Golden Flashes are pretty flashless again. Urban's message to the team after the loss? That tOSU can still accomplish everything it set out to at 11-1. With no discernable threats on the schedule until PSU in late October, it is still not out of the realm of possibility. OSU: 38--KSU: 13
Upset Special
Draper: UCF over Missouri
Hoying: Iowa State over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Central Michigan over Syracuse
Seeberg: UMass over Vanderbilt
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Friday, September 12, 2014
Sunday, December 01, 2013
Another Terrific Week of Football, Another Fake Controversy
Let's begin by just reflecting on what a wonderfully bizarre day of football yesterday was. Rivalry games are special even without exciting finishes, but when college football's two greatest rivalries lead to two of the best last-minute thrill rides of the season, America gets a solid reminder of why college football is, without a doubt, better than the NFL.
NFL players don't sit crying in the tunnel after a triumph over their most hated, heavily favored opponent slips from their grasp. NFL games don't end with home underdogs sending their offense out on a point-after attempt when the outcome is triumph or defeat of the highest order, with no middle ground. NFL games don't come to a conclusion with the greatest coach in the game getting outfoxed on a special teams play that no one in the stadium saw coming but the upstart opposing coach his eleven men on the field. Plays like this are rare in college football as well, but what's commonplace at the college level, and what is missing from the NFL, is the level of total dedication displayed by every member of those Buckeye, Wolverine, Tide, and Tiger players. They understood that the stakes of their games yesterday could not be higher, not because of any championship implications, but because a loss to your bitter rival consumes your soul for the next 364 days, or if you're a senior, forever.
NFL bashing aside, let's turn our focus to the implications of yesterday's clashes of the titans. On October 20th, the day the BCS rankings were released, the Buckeyes looked to be in a pretty dark place. Sure, they were 6-0 and still in the hunt for a B1G title and possibly more, but they were ranked #4 of 8 undefeated BCS conference teams, and there was no guarantee that any of the 4 lower teams wouldn't jump them during their quest for #2. Shortly before the rankings were released, I wrote a piece assuring Buckeye Nation (and Bear Nation and Hurricane Nation etc.) that there was nothing to fear; the BCS rankings are always muddled in October but they almost always sort themselves out to the two deserving teams by season's end. Sure enough, 6 of the 8 undefeated BCS teams lost, leaving the path open to a neat and tidy matchup of the only two unbeatens. This was why the BCS was developed: to ensure that if there were two undefeated teams that wouldn't get to play each other because of existing bowl tie-ins, they'd get a chance to have it out on the field to determine who the real national champion was.
During the 15 years of the BCS, this has only occurred 4 times (1999, 2002, 2005, 2010). Among the years of multiple-BCS-undefeateds controversy (2004, 2009), and lesser squabbles among 1-loss teams (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012) or two-loss teams (2007), these 4 matchups were the opportunities for the BCS to pat itself on the back for a job well done. No controversy, no arguments, no disputing who the real national champion was once the bowl games were played.
So the BCS has a chance to get the correct result in its last hurrah, right? That's what I thought after Auburn's unconventional kick return against Alabama. But imagine my surprise when I woke up to see the most bizarre comments spewed all over my Twitter feed and the Worldwide Leader's website. They boiled down to some version of "Well, Michigan State will probably beat Ohio State and end this controversy anyway."
Huh?
Regardless of whether Sparty will or won't win on Saturday (I don't think they will, come back later this week for our picks), what is this controversy of which people speak, and why does a Michigan State win resolve it? A little deeper digging revealed that the dispute was whether an undefeated Ohio State or a 1-loss Auburn should go to the BCS National Championship to face Florida State.
What?
Before we have that debate, it's important to note all the assumptions implicit in such a farce, and how totally without merit they are.
Assumption #1: Florida State obviously deserves to be #1 (assuming a win over Duke).
Counter: Why? Let's take a look at who's been #1 when the 2 vs. 3 arguments have reared their ugly heads.
1998: #1 Tennessee - only undefeated BCS team
1999: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2000: #1 Oklahoma - only undefeated BCS team
2001: #1 Miami - only undefeated BCS team
2002: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2003: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2004: #1 USC - won share of 2003 title, ranked #1 preseason and never fell from that spot
2005: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2006: #1 Ohio State - only undefeated BCS team
2007: #1 Ohio State - only 1-loss or fewer BCS team
2008: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2009: No real 2 vs. 3 dispute (sorry Cincinnati)
2010: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2011: #1 LSU - only undefeated BCS team
2012: #1 Notre Dame - only undefeated BCS team
So we see that when there's a dispute over who should be #2, the only time the conflict doesn't extend to the #1 team as well is when the #1 team has had fewer losses than any other BCS team. Except 2004. That season had a few wrinkles pertinent to this analysis.* USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated. USC got the nod for the Orange Bowl because USC was fresh off an AP-championship season and spent the season at #1 wire-to-wire.
Given what we observe from the history of the BCS, why does Florida State get a free pass at #1? They're not alone at 12-0: Ohio State is right there with them. They weren't preseason #1; they were preseason #12, far behind #2 Ohio State. Maybe they're getting the benefit of the doubt from their prior BCS history:
Florida State:
1998 L vs. Tennessee
1999 W vs. Virginia Tech (National Champions)
2000 L vs. Oklahoma
2002 L vs. Georgia
2003 L vs. Miami
2005 L vs. Penn State
2012 W vs. Northern Illinois
Ohio State:
1998 W vs. Texas A&M
2002 W vs. Miami (National Champions)
2003 W vs. Kansas State
2005 W vs. Notre Dame
2006 L vs. Florida
2007 L vs. LSU
2008 L vs. Texas
2009 W vs. Oregon
2010 W vs. Arkansas
Well...no help here, unless people are really impressed by that win over a MAC team. The pundits must be focusing on what Florida State has done this season only (good for them).
Let's take a look at each team's strength of schedule.
Florida State opponents' records: 61-60
Ohio State opponents' records: 62-59
Uh...hmm...that doesn't appear to help matters. Maybe if we look at wins over teams with winning records.
Florida State: @Clemson (10-2), vs. Miami (9-3), @Boston College (7-5), vs. Maryland (7-5)
Ohio State: vs. Wisconsin (9-3), vs. Iowa (8-4), @Michigan (7-5), vs. Penn State (7-5), vs. San Diego State (7-5), vs. Buffalo (8-4)
Erm...no answers there either, particularly when you consider that Ohio State faces Michigan State (11-1) in their final game while Florida State faces Duke (10-2), and NO ONE is suggesting that the Bucks have any hope of jumping the Noles after next weekend.
Let's try margin of victory.
Florida State: +28, +55, +48, +14, +63, +37, +32, +27, +56, +56, +66, +30. Average: 42.2
Ohio State: +20, +35, +18, +76, +7, +10, +10, +49, +56, +25, +28, +1. Average: 23.5
Mystery solved. If you want to be untouchable at #1, beat your mediocre-to-good opponents by more than your fellow undefeated competitor.
Assumption #2: It's ok for a 1-loss BCS conference team to finish ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team.
Counter: Show me the precedent. In 15 years of the BCS we've had at least 1 BCS conference team finish undefeated 12 times. WITHOUT EXCEPTION, these teams have finished ahead of every team with a loss, even though during all 12 of these seasons, there has been at least one 1-loss BCS team available. Obviously this doesn't mean that a 1-loss team finishing higher can't happen, but it does create quite the suffocating presumption to overcome.
Assumption #3: The SEC champion is without question the most deserving 1-loss team available.
Counter: I agree that the body of work of the SEC champion will be stronger than any other 1-loss team. However, the gap is not particularly wide, especially if Missouri beats Auburn. Missouri would have a great win over Auburn, and some good wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Is this really that much better than Oklahoma State's potential win list of Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas? Or Michigan State's potential win list of Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota? Again, I think Missouri would have the better claim, but to state that such a comparison would be less controversial than the false one brewing between Ohio State and Auburn/Missouri makes no sense unless you accept implicitly that...
Assumption #4: The SEC is light-years ahead of any other conference.
Counter: This is the argument you're going to hear pounded into your skull for the next 7 days. You've heard it ever since Urban Meyer's Florida beat Jim Tressel's Ohio State, and the rabid southerners and other such partisan hacks aren't going to abandon it now. Obviously there's no denying that an SEC member has won the last 7 BCS national championships and 9 BCS titles out of 15 total. But this doesn't necessarily say anything about the league itself; it could be far and away the best, or it could be just top-heavy. To know more, we have to look at the SEC's performance top-to-bottom against other conferences.
In the BCS Era
SEC vs. Pac-12 in regular season: 12-12
SEC vs. Pac-12 in bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 in regular season: 6-11
SEC vs. Big 12 in bowl games: 22-8
SEC vs. ACC in regular season: 47-37
SEC vs. ACC in bowl games: 17-10
SEC vs. Big Ten in regular season: 8-5
SEC vs. Big Ten in bowl games: 21-19
SEC vs. Big East in regular season: 16-18
SEC vs. Big East in bowl games: 4-9
Good? Yes. Dominant? Not so clear. Other than dominating the Big 12 in bowl games and the ACC in general, and getting beat by the Big East of all conferences, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from this, particularly when we consider that all of the SEC's bowl games take place within the conference's geographic footprint, far from the territory of the Big Ten, the Big 12, or where the Big East was located during the BCS era.
On a side note, which team will leave the BCS era with the most BCS bowl wins? It's a tie between USC (who's not going to a BCS bowl this year) and Ohio State, whose last BCS win came at the hands of...Arkansas from the SEC, making Ohio State 1-2 against the SEC in BCS games. And yes, the Sugar Bowl win was vacated because of the tattoo scandal, but does anyone really think Ohio State's rule-breaking behavior led to them gaining a competitive advantage in that game? Put another way, if Ohio State players weren't getting the occasional free tattoo, would they still have beaten Arkansas to cap a 12-1 season?
On another side note, one of the teams tied for most BCS losses is Florida State, but you won't hear about their BCS struggles this week, even though the Noles have never beaten a Big Ten or an SEC team in a BCS bowl (0-3).
Whoopty-Doo! What does it all mean, Basil?
The assumptions necessary to even have a debate about Ohio State falling below #2 are so flawed that the debate itself is nonsensical. Only the most blinded, unabashed SEC homer would dare to make a case to leave an undefeated Ohio State out of the national championship game at this point. While SEC teams have made many trips to many BCS bowls and Alabama, Florida, and LSU have had great success there, Auburn cannot rely on past history (2 BCS appearances in 15 years), nor can Missouri (0 BCS appearances in 15 years) to rush past an Ohio State team (or, for that matter, a Florida State team) that played a big-boy schedule, in a big-boy conference, and did not lose a game. The Bucks and the Noles have earned their way to the title game before, and with two victories on Saturday, they'll do it again, much to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of all in SECSPN country.
*Remember the 2004 season mentioned earlier? Oklahoma went to the title game ahead of undefeated Auburn because they were the preseason #2 and had also occupied the #2 spot all season long, even though Oklahoma had lost the BCS Championship game to an SEC team, LSU, at the end of the previous season. In other words, an SEC team winning the prior season's national championship did not give the league the benefit of the doubt needed for an undefeated Auburn to jump an undefeated Oklahoma. How much more ridiculous would it be for a 1-loss team to jump an undefeated preseason #2 Ohio State?
In case you're still wavering about the merits of Auburn or Missouri vis-a-vis Florida State and Ohio State, here are your nails in the coffin (check out Massey Ratings' Game Graph Connecting Path to do this yourself).
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Ohio State beat Penn State
who beat Syracuse
who beat Maryland
who beat West Virginia
who beat Oklahoma State
who beat Mississippi State
who beat Mississippi
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
Ohio State beat Wisconsin
who beat BYU
who beat Georgia Tech
who beat Duke
who beat Miami
who beat Florida
who beat Tennessee
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
"Big deal," you might say, "you can do this with almost any two teams if you want."
Almost.
Not Ohio State or Florida State.
Because they haven't lost.
On to 13-0 and a place in the final BCS National Championship in Pasadena.
NFL players don't sit crying in the tunnel after a triumph over their most hated, heavily favored opponent slips from their grasp. NFL games don't end with home underdogs sending their offense out on a point-after attempt when the outcome is triumph or defeat of the highest order, with no middle ground. NFL games don't come to a conclusion with the greatest coach in the game getting outfoxed on a special teams play that no one in the stadium saw coming but the upstart opposing coach his eleven men on the field. Plays like this are rare in college football as well, but what's commonplace at the college level, and what is missing from the NFL, is the level of total dedication displayed by every member of those Buckeye, Wolverine, Tide, and Tiger players. They understood that the stakes of their games yesterday could not be higher, not because of any championship implications, but because a loss to your bitter rival consumes your soul for the next 364 days, or if you're a senior, forever.
NFL bashing aside, let's turn our focus to the implications of yesterday's clashes of the titans. On October 20th, the day the BCS rankings were released, the Buckeyes looked to be in a pretty dark place. Sure, they were 6-0 and still in the hunt for a B1G title and possibly more, but they were ranked #4 of 8 undefeated BCS conference teams, and there was no guarantee that any of the 4 lower teams wouldn't jump them during their quest for #2. Shortly before the rankings were released, I wrote a piece assuring Buckeye Nation (and Bear Nation and Hurricane Nation etc.) that there was nothing to fear; the BCS rankings are always muddled in October but they almost always sort themselves out to the two deserving teams by season's end. Sure enough, 6 of the 8 undefeated BCS teams lost, leaving the path open to a neat and tidy matchup of the only two unbeatens. This was why the BCS was developed: to ensure that if there were two undefeated teams that wouldn't get to play each other because of existing bowl tie-ins, they'd get a chance to have it out on the field to determine who the real national champion was.
During the 15 years of the BCS, this has only occurred 4 times (1999, 2002, 2005, 2010). Among the years of multiple-BCS-undefeateds controversy (2004, 2009), and lesser squabbles among 1-loss teams (1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012) or two-loss teams (2007), these 4 matchups were the opportunities for the BCS to pat itself on the back for a job well done. No controversy, no arguments, no disputing who the real national champion was once the bowl games were played.
So the BCS has a chance to get the correct result in its last hurrah, right? That's what I thought after Auburn's unconventional kick return against Alabama. But imagine my surprise when I woke up to see the most bizarre comments spewed all over my Twitter feed and the Worldwide Leader's website. They boiled down to some version of "Well, Michigan State will probably beat Ohio State and end this controversy anyway."
Huh?
Regardless of whether Sparty will or won't win on Saturday (I don't think they will, come back later this week for our picks), what is this controversy of which people speak, and why does a Michigan State win resolve it? A little deeper digging revealed that the dispute was whether an undefeated Ohio State or a 1-loss Auburn should go to the BCS National Championship to face Florida State.
What?
Before we have that debate, it's important to note all the assumptions implicit in such a farce, and how totally without merit they are.
Assumption #1: Florida State obviously deserves to be #1 (assuming a win over Duke).
Counter: Why? Let's take a look at who's been #1 when the 2 vs. 3 arguments have reared their ugly heads.
1998: #1 Tennessee - only undefeated BCS team
1999: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2000: #1 Oklahoma - only undefeated BCS team
2001: #1 Miami - only undefeated BCS team
2002: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2003: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2004: #1 USC - won share of 2003 title, ranked #1 preseason and never fell from that spot
2005: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2006: #1 Ohio State - only undefeated BCS team
2007: #1 Ohio State - only 1-loss or fewer BCS team
2008: #1, #2, and #3 all in dispute
2009: No real 2 vs. 3 dispute (sorry Cincinnati)
2010: No 2 vs. 3 dispute
2011: #1 LSU - only undefeated BCS team
2012: #1 Notre Dame - only undefeated BCS team
So we see that when there's a dispute over who should be #2, the only time the conflict doesn't extend to the #1 team as well is when the #1 team has had fewer losses than any other BCS team. Except 2004. That season had a few wrinkles pertinent to this analysis.* USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all finished undefeated. USC got the nod for the Orange Bowl because USC was fresh off an AP-championship season and spent the season at #1 wire-to-wire.
Given what we observe from the history of the BCS, why does Florida State get a free pass at #1? They're not alone at 12-0: Ohio State is right there with them. They weren't preseason #1; they were preseason #12, far behind #2 Ohio State. Maybe they're getting the benefit of the doubt from their prior BCS history:
Florida State:
1998 L vs. Tennessee
1999 W vs. Virginia Tech (National Champions)
2000 L vs. Oklahoma
2002 L vs. Georgia
2003 L vs. Miami
2005 L vs. Penn State
2012 W vs. Northern Illinois
Ohio State:
1998 W vs. Texas A&M
2002 W vs. Miami (National Champions)
2003 W vs. Kansas State
2005 W vs. Notre Dame
2006 L vs. Florida
2007 L vs. LSU
2008 L vs. Texas
2009 W vs. Oregon
2010 W vs. Arkansas
Well...no help here, unless people are really impressed by that win over a MAC team. The pundits must be focusing on what Florida State has done this season only (good for them).
Let's take a look at each team's strength of schedule.
Florida State opponents' records: 61-60
Ohio State opponents' records: 62-59
Uh...hmm...that doesn't appear to help matters. Maybe if we look at wins over teams with winning records.
Florida State: @Clemson (10-2), vs. Miami (9-3), @Boston College (7-5), vs. Maryland (7-5)
Ohio State: vs. Wisconsin (9-3), vs. Iowa (8-4), @Michigan (7-5), vs. Penn State (7-5), vs. San Diego State (7-5), vs. Buffalo (8-4)
Erm...no answers there either, particularly when you consider that Ohio State faces Michigan State (11-1) in their final game while Florida State faces Duke (10-2), and NO ONE is suggesting that the Bucks have any hope of jumping the Noles after next weekend.
Let's try margin of victory.
Florida State: +28, +55, +48, +14, +63, +37, +32, +27, +56, +56, +66, +30. Average: 42.2
Ohio State: +20, +35, +18, +76, +7, +10, +10, +49, +56, +25, +28, +1. Average: 23.5
Mystery solved. If you want to be untouchable at #1, beat your mediocre-to-good opponents by more than your fellow undefeated competitor.
Assumption #2: It's ok for a 1-loss BCS conference team to finish ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team.
Counter: Show me the precedent. In 15 years of the BCS we've had at least 1 BCS conference team finish undefeated 12 times. WITHOUT EXCEPTION, these teams have finished ahead of every team with a loss, even though during all 12 of these seasons, there has been at least one 1-loss BCS team available. Obviously this doesn't mean that a 1-loss team finishing higher can't happen, but it does create quite the suffocating presumption to overcome.
Assumption #3: The SEC champion is without question the most deserving 1-loss team available.
Counter: I agree that the body of work of the SEC champion will be stronger than any other 1-loss team. However, the gap is not particularly wide, especially if Missouri beats Auburn. Missouri would have a great win over Auburn, and some good wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Is this really that much better than Oklahoma State's potential win list of Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas? Or Michigan State's potential win list of Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota? Again, I think Missouri would have the better claim, but to state that such a comparison would be less controversial than the false one brewing between Ohio State and Auburn/Missouri makes no sense unless you accept implicitly that...
Assumption #4: The SEC is light-years ahead of any other conference.
Counter: This is the argument you're going to hear pounded into your skull for the next 7 days. You've heard it ever since Urban Meyer's Florida beat Jim Tressel's Ohio State, and the rabid southerners and other such partisan hacks aren't going to abandon it now. Obviously there's no denying that an SEC member has won the last 7 BCS national championships and 9 BCS titles out of 15 total. But this doesn't necessarily say anything about the league itself; it could be far and away the best, or it could be just top-heavy. To know more, we have to look at the SEC's performance top-to-bottom against other conferences.
In the BCS Era
SEC vs. Pac-12 in regular season: 12-12
SEC vs. Pac-12 in bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 in regular season: 6-11
SEC vs. Big 12 in bowl games: 22-8
SEC vs. ACC in regular season: 47-37
SEC vs. ACC in bowl games: 17-10
SEC vs. Big Ten in regular season: 8-5
SEC vs. Big Ten in bowl games: 21-19
SEC vs. Big East in regular season: 16-18
SEC vs. Big East in bowl games: 4-9
Good? Yes. Dominant? Not so clear. Other than dominating the Big 12 in bowl games and the ACC in general, and getting beat by the Big East of all conferences, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from this, particularly when we consider that all of the SEC's bowl games take place within the conference's geographic footprint, far from the territory of the Big Ten, the Big 12, or where the Big East was located during the BCS era.
On a side note, which team will leave the BCS era with the most BCS bowl wins? It's a tie between USC (who's not going to a BCS bowl this year) and Ohio State, whose last BCS win came at the hands of...Arkansas from the SEC, making Ohio State 1-2 against the SEC in BCS games. And yes, the Sugar Bowl win was vacated because of the tattoo scandal, but does anyone really think Ohio State's rule-breaking behavior led to them gaining a competitive advantage in that game? Put another way, if Ohio State players weren't getting the occasional free tattoo, would they still have beaten Arkansas to cap a 12-1 season?
On another side note, one of the teams tied for most BCS losses is Florida State, but you won't hear about their BCS struggles this week, even though the Noles have never beaten a Big Ten or an SEC team in a BCS bowl (0-3).
Whoopty-Doo! What does it all mean, Basil?
The assumptions necessary to even have a debate about Ohio State falling below #2 are so flawed that the debate itself is nonsensical. Only the most blinded, unabashed SEC homer would dare to make a case to leave an undefeated Ohio State out of the national championship game at this point. While SEC teams have made many trips to many BCS bowls and Alabama, Florida, and LSU have had great success there, Auburn cannot rely on past history (2 BCS appearances in 15 years), nor can Missouri (0 BCS appearances in 15 years) to rush past an Ohio State team (or, for that matter, a Florida State team) that played a big-boy schedule, in a big-boy conference, and did not lose a game. The Bucks and the Noles have earned their way to the title game before, and with two victories on Saturday, they'll do it again, much to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of all in SECSPN country.
*Remember the 2004 season mentioned earlier? Oklahoma went to the title game ahead of undefeated Auburn because they were the preseason #2 and had also occupied the #2 spot all season long, even though Oklahoma had lost the BCS Championship game to an SEC team, LSU, at the end of the previous season. In other words, an SEC team winning the prior season's national championship did not give the league the benefit of the doubt needed for an undefeated Auburn to jump an undefeated Oklahoma. How much more ridiculous would it be for a 1-loss team to jump an undefeated preseason #2 Ohio State?
In case you're still wavering about the merits of Auburn or Missouri vis-a-vis Florida State and Ohio State, here are your nails in the coffin (check out Massey Ratings' Game Graph Connecting Path to do this yourself).
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Ohio State beat Penn State
who beat Syracuse
who beat Maryland
who beat West Virginia
who beat Oklahoma State
who beat Mississippi State
who beat Mississippi
who beat LSU
who beat Auburn.
Florida State beat Clemson
who beat Georgia
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
Ohio State beat Wisconsin
who beat BYU
who beat Georgia Tech
who beat Duke
who beat Miami
who beat Florida
who beat Tennessee
who beat South Carolina
who beat Missouri.
"Big deal," you might say, "you can do this with almost any two teams if you want."
Almost.
Not Ohio State or Florida State.
Because they haven't lost.
On to 13-0 and a place in the final BCS National Championship in Pasadena.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Five Thoughts on the week that was--Week 8
1) Oklahoma upset was HUGE
Everyone is swooning over the Hail Mary MSU win over Wisconsin and what that means to the future, but that is but a drop in the bucket to the storm that erupted in Norman. Let's make this clear: Oklahoma does NOT lose in Norman. They play so much better at home than on the road, they never play Texas at home, and they just own the rest of the country when they come to their house. Texas Tech was a nice little upstart, but they shouldn't have had a prayer with all on the line in the Sooner's house. The OU defense was befuddled by Doege and even though they put up points, no one expected them to need a comeback to make it close. This loss is HUGE for the shakeup of the BCS (much much bigger than the Wisconsin loss) and will also haunt Bob Stoops. Big game Bob showed the 'Chokelahoma' moniker is more deserved.
2) Don't forget about Oregon
With all the hype around the SEC matchup in 2 weeks and all the other top 5 upsets, people are forgetting about the Ducks sneaking around the chicken coop. Yes, they lost to LSU at a 'neutral site' in Jerry world because they nicely handed the ball to LSU many times, but since then, they are trouncing everyone. I know the competition is much much weaker, but I'm not sold that Stanford can take the Ducks this year. If LSU dominates Bama, we may have to face the possibility that the Ducks are the 2nd best team in the country. Perhaps they deserve a rematch against LSU in a more neutral location in the national championship....wait....it's in New Orleans? Crap.
3) B1G is an absolute mess
Is there a team (outside of Indiana or Minnesota--maybe Purdue) in the B1G that you can say is out of the race? The answer is no. Why? OSU is down. There is no National Title contender in the conference (as I said preseason) and the conference contains a bunch of mid-level teams for this season. The clear favorites for the B1G Conference Title Game is Wisconsin v. MSU, but pretty much every other team (more or less) controls their destiny. Let's be honest. When this Ohio State team is 1 additional Penn State loss from controlling their destiny, this conference has issues. Perhaps this is the B1G basketball year!
4) Wisconsin faced a defense and....
They were exposed. The Wisconsin offense put some points up, but the unstoppable force was not so impressive in East Lansing. The game turned into a shootout and Wilson couldn't quite hang on. Let's recall that OSU gave up 10 points to the Spartans. This Wisconsin team is pretty good, but certainly not elite. They have been feasting off the dregs in Madison and weren't ready for a real test. They come into Columbus this week to face another defense with some bite and an offense that.....well the defense is good. It's not that big of a stretch to think that Wisconsin was all bark no bite.
5) BCS teams are more or less fixed right now
Can anyone imagine a situation in which a team other than those listed below will make a BCS game?
Big 12: OU/OSU
Pac 12: Stanford/Oregon
SEC: LSU/Bama
B1G: Champ (Wisc or MSU probable)
Big East: Champ (who cares)
ACC: Champ (Clemson probable)
At-Large: Boise
In my opinion, this will be the slate and I would be surprised with anything else. Yeah, Oklahoma could die off, but I'm not seeing it. One loss also does Boise in, but can anyone on their schedule beat them. Again, the excitement is somewhat tempered with the lack of top contenders. My midseason BCS Bowl predictions are:
Rose: Oregon vs. MSU
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar: Alabama vs. Stanford
Orange: Clemson vs. WVU
BCS Title: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Pretty good matchups (except for the Orange....)
Everyone is swooning over the Hail Mary MSU win over Wisconsin and what that means to the future, but that is but a drop in the bucket to the storm that erupted in Norman. Let's make this clear: Oklahoma does NOT lose in Norman. They play so much better at home than on the road, they never play Texas at home, and they just own the rest of the country when they come to their house. Texas Tech was a nice little upstart, but they shouldn't have had a prayer with all on the line in the Sooner's house. The OU defense was befuddled by Doege and even though they put up points, no one expected them to need a comeback to make it close. This loss is HUGE for the shakeup of the BCS (much much bigger than the Wisconsin loss) and will also haunt Bob Stoops. Big game Bob showed the 'Chokelahoma' moniker is more deserved.
2) Don't forget about Oregon
With all the hype around the SEC matchup in 2 weeks and all the other top 5 upsets, people are forgetting about the Ducks sneaking around the chicken coop. Yes, they lost to LSU at a 'neutral site' in Jerry world because they nicely handed the ball to LSU many times, but since then, they are trouncing everyone. I know the competition is much much weaker, but I'm not sold that Stanford can take the Ducks this year. If LSU dominates Bama, we may have to face the possibility that the Ducks are the 2nd best team in the country. Perhaps they deserve a rematch against LSU in a more neutral location in the national championship....wait....it's in New Orleans? Crap.
3) B1G is an absolute mess
Is there a team (outside of Indiana or Minnesota--maybe Purdue) in the B1G that you can say is out of the race? The answer is no. Why? OSU is down. There is no National Title contender in the conference (as I said preseason) and the conference contains a bunch of mid-level teams for this season. The clear favorites for the B1G Conference Title Game is Wisconsin v. MSU, but pretty much every other team (more or less) controls their destiny. Let's be honest. When this Ohio State team is 1 additional Penn State loss from controlling their destiny, this conference has issues. Perhaps this is the B1G basketball year!
4) Wisconsin faced a defense and....
They were exposed. The Wisconsin offense put some points up, but the unstoppable force was not so impressive in East Lansing. The game turned into a shootout and Wilson couldn't quite hang on. Let's recall that OSU gave up 10 points to the Spartans. This Wisconsin team is pretty good, but certainly not elite. They have been feasting off the dregs in Madison and weren't ready for a real test. They come into Columbus this week to face another defense with some bite and an offense that.....well the defense is good. It's not that big of a stretch to think that Wisconsin was all bark no bite.
5) BCS teams are more or less fixed right now
Can anyone imagine a situation in which a team other than those listed below will make a BCS game?
Big 12: OU/OSU
Pac 12: Stanford/Oregon
SEC: LSU/Bama
B1G: Champ (Wisc or MSU probable)
Big East: Champ (who cares)
ACC: Champ (Clemson probable)
At-Large: Boise
In my opinion, this will be the slate and I would be surprised with anything else. Yeah, Oklahoma could die off, but I'm not seeing it. One loss also does Boise in, but can anyone on their schedule beat them. Again, the excitement is somewhat tempered with the lack of top contenders. My midseason BCS Bowl predictions are:
Rose: Oregon vs. MSU
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar: Alabama vs. Stanford
Orange: Clemson vs. WVU
BCS Title: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Pretty good matchups (except for the Orange....)
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