Friday, September 02, 2022

Week 1: Silver & Gold

Smiles up, Buckeye Nation. We have a brand new defense, a brand new offensive line coach, the return of the best QB in America (for both of the first two games, even!) and a shiny golden opponent to tune up against. It's time for a traitor to be rewarded as a traitor deserves, and don't be surprised if Marcus Freeman makes the wrong decision a few more times than twice on Saturday afternoon.


Oregon Ducks vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: A big road opener for the Ducks for the second year.  Once again playing the big underdog role, the question is whether the Ducks can pull it off again.  Last year, was a perfect storm facing a new QB and a putrid defense (sorry, Bucks) and just enough to get it done in a tough environment.  If we turn back the clock, you'll find that CJ was pretty good (not great, but the defense couldn't do anything).  I don't think the Dawgs will have that problem.  Yeah, the offense won't be NEARLY as explosive, but that defense (although fairly green) will be just fine.  Last year was the one for the Ducks.  After losing Cristobal, I don't think we'll see a resurgence.  Yes, the Oregon coach came from UGA, but the athletes simply don't match.  The fact that the UGA QB is subpar is less important when you have the defense to carry you.  I just can't see the upset here.  UO: 10--UGA: 20
Hoying: Yeah, on paper this doesn't look particularly competitive, but the presumptive underdog in this matchup was responsible for one of the most baffling-in-hindsight upsets of the 2021 season (other than Bowling Green over Minnesota, maybe). I doubt that game is far from your memory. What you might not remember was that their national championship defending opponent came out in week 1 last year and failed to make any kind of dent in the weakest Clemson team in the Playoff era, needing a pick 6 to get past the otherwise dreadful 3-3 deadlock. It's not like the Georgia offense suddenly woke up at any point last year; they had by far the worst offense of any Playoff champion but an old-school SEC classic defense was enough to pull them just far enough ahead of the Tuscaloosa Death Star for the title. But they aren't playing Alabama now; they're playing a normal team. How did Georgia do against the last normal team they played? Well, I'm sure I don't need to remind you about the other team that smacked around the scarlet and gray last year, and what did they and their Heisman runner-up DE do when they arrived in the Playoff? They got lit up for 34 points and failed to do much of anything in return. As long as Georgia doesn't have a nasty case of "2015 Ohio State" I don't see any way this game stays close; Oregon hasn't found any answers in the offseason and their hard ceiling of "just barely Playoff caliber with favorable schedule" hasn't budged. Ore: 9--UGA: 24
Schweinfurth: This has the feel of the annual neutral field sacrifice to the SEC. The coaching turnover at Oregon is a little concerning and the Ducks are not going to catch Georgia off guard. Georgia isn't going to let the Ducks run the same play over and over for chunk yardage either. The Dawgs start their national championship defense off with a win. Ore: 10--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  First off, COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!!  Secondly, much credit to these programs for their willingness to play marquee early season games.  Both teams won their respective big openers to springboard into early CFP contention.  Clearly worked out well for the Dawgs.  The Ducks just manhandled our beloved Buckeyes last year but UGA is a whole 'nother level of physical.  With even a reasonably competent offense to compliment their likely-reloaded D, Georgia should start their title defense with another marquee W.  Ore: 13--UGA: 24

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Arkansas Razorbacks
Draper: I'm intrigued with this matchup.  Last year was the year of the Bearcat (before getting whipped in the CFP), but Fickell has built a strong program across the board.  Losses of Ridder and Garner loom large even though it's more of a 'next man up' situation than ever before.  The Hogs have some crazy freaks on both sides, but the running game will take center stage. The question is how Arkansas handles success/expectations of success.  Cincy has lived with it and thrived, but that was against a (mostly) group of 5 schedule.  Arkansas is still a mid-tier Power 5, but they have some horses.  These teams would be really interesting in a neutral site game, but I'll lean on the Hogs in Fayetteville.  UC: 20--Ark: 24
Hoying: Congratulations, Cincinnati. You proved that beating one quality team and eleven limp fish is sufficient to secure a Playoff spot. And wouldn't you know it, fresh off of your Playoff chokehold at the hands of Alabama, opportunity repeats itself in 2022. The schedule is total poo but look at that shining kernel of corn leading things off: an SEC team! And not just an SEC team, but a trendy pick as a dark horse to make some noise in college football's death division, the SEC West. Should we expect the Bearcats to bring home the bacon and settle in for three months of cruise control? Not exactly. Cincy followed up their greatest season ever by sending a school record nine players to the draft, including steady hand QB Desmond Ridder and All-American DBs Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant. Arkansas will be...OK...but that should be enough to handle a Bearcat squad with at least one star misaligned. Better luck next year in the Big 12 (or just win out and go to the Cotton Bowl). UC: 20--Ark: 30
Schweinfurth: What a difference a year makes here. I'm taking Cincinnati if this game was played last year. No Desmond Ridder and no Sauce Gardner and it feels like the Bearcats are in rebuild mode. Fickel won't let his time quit, so the score should be close, but the talent gap should win out in the end. UC: 21--Ark: 24
Seeberg:  Wait, this is a ranked matchup?  Welcome to college football in 2022.  UC went where no non-power-5-but-soon-to-be-power-5 squad has gone before, making the playoff as Alabama's semifinal appetizer.  The Bearcats recruited well, developed even better, and had a whopping NINE players drafted in April, more than every program except LSU and UGA (yes, even the Buckeyes amazingly enough).  That amalgamation of talent just isn't sustainable there just yet, and the 'Hogs are on the upswing with Sam Pittman coaching in year two.  It should be competitive, but Fickell and Co. aren't destined for another dream season just yet.  UC: 17--Ark: 27
 
Utah Utes @ Florida Gators
Draper: Another really interesting matchup to open the year as the SEC leaves the friendly home confines for a....wait....they're at home AGAIN? Checks out.  The Utes are the talk of the Pac12 this year (along with the hot Trojans).  While they're not sexy, they are a very good, well-coached team.  While almost stealing a Rose Bowl (against the OSU 2nd string), you can see the talent on the team (unless the RB's play CB again).  The Gators are...the Gators.  New coach Billy Napier is bringing some hope of rebirth to Gainsville, but there's a bit of a climb after last years campaign.  While UF can still recruit great talent, we haven't heard a ton of it in the last few years.  Utah might not have the 'studs' either, but they're more experienced with high quality.  The Swamp is the real question here.  It truly is one of, if not the, most intimidating environment in CFB when rocking.  Will Gator Nation come out and will it be enough? I think so and I think not, respectively.  If they can weather the early crowd, the Utes sneak out with a win.  UU: 24--UF: 20
Hoying: Boy, did any team fall off harder in the second half of 2021 than the Florida Gators? Going from playing Alabama to a standstill in the Swamp to losing five of their last seven, including getting run out of the building against post-Spurrier South Carolina of all teams, was enough to finally run Dan Mullen out of Gainesville. Enter Billy Napier, and he has his work cut out for him. 2021 starting QB Emory Jones decided to keep the heat but lose the humidity and bolt for Arizona State, leaving UF to break in a new starting QB as well. Of course, it wasn't the QB that gave up 459 yards to South Carolina or 454 yards to LSU, but slowing the flow of turnovers would be a big part of a new recipe for success. As for Utah, you saw what they did to Oregon (twice) last year and what they did to the Buckeyes for about two and a half quarters. Yes, they also gave up a million points in the Rose Bowl but that's what happens when you're down three cornerbacks against the best passing attack in the nation and have to start Micah "I play running back!" Bernard instead. The Utes still have their Rising star at QB to supplement a nasty rushing attack (hi again, Micah) which should give the Gators all they can handle. But...SEC talent...a new coach looking for something to prove, and in the Swamp of all places, where even the 2021 Tide barely escaped with their skins. I can't shake the feeling the Gators pull this one off. The SEC lands a one-two punch against the Pac-12 to kick off 2022 (after the Big Ten did the same in the offseason). UU: 24--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun one to watch. Utah should actually have the full complement on defense, as opposed to what they rolled out in the Rose Bowl. They are just scrappy. I just haven't been sold on Florida for a few years. It's not for lack of talent. Something with the coaching has just seemed off. The Utes are a strong team and should keep it close. Close enough to win...? UU: 28--UF: 24
Seeberg:  Like many Buckeye fans I came away impressed with the Utes in the Rose Bowl shootout last year.  The Gators haven't impressed much since Urban left  I'm pretty sure the Swamp is a good enough environment to keep the home team in it, but too much turnover- and too many turnovers- will likely be their undoing against a sound and more disciplined squad.  Utes get what at least feels like a marquee win on their path to be the "we really have to invite a fourth?" team to the CFP this year (can't wait to see the garbage that gets in when we go to 12!).  UU: 31--UF: 20

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: It's finally here.  I'm so excited to see Jim Tressel as the guest picker on Gameday.  He's in town, former coach at OSU, coached the ND coach in college. It just works out perfectly....what?....WHO THE HELL IS JACK HARLOW? I wish I could find the brilliant mind that came up with that choice.  Regardless, the Buckeyes enter the year as many people's pick for the National Champion so expectations abound.  The top 3 (Bama, UGA, and OSU) rightfully dominate the airwaves, and I agree those 3 teams have separated from the pack.  Notre Dame may be in that 2nd tier (or 3rd if you put Bama alone in the 1st), but the chasm between those 3 and the world is enormous.  CJ Stroud is rightfully the Heisman frontrunner and he needs to start the campaign now.  I would argue that OSU has the best QB, WR room, and possibly O-line in the country while touting a very strong running attack to boot.  ND has a nice defense, but I'll be stunned if they stymie the Bucks.  The questions are all over the defense.  Jim Knowles isn't going to snap his fingers and turn the 2021 Silver Bullets into the 85 Bears overnight (despite what the message board crazies say), but I do believe that we will see massive improvements from last year.  If the Buckeye defense can be even at a top 30-40 level, I think this offense is good enough to outscore anyone.  So long as the moment isn't too big for these players (and why should it be when this is the squad that played in the Rose Bowl), I expect a comfortable win.  There will be moments as every week 1 game entails, but if Day and Co. can keep Coleridge Bernard focused and the defense improving, Buckeye Nation will have a big win to remember.  Wishing good luck to Marcus Freeman the rest of the way, but this Saturday, you're the enemy.  ND: 20 -- OSU: 45
Hoying: I hate scheduling this game in week 1. The stakes are far too high to open with anything but a nice cupcake like Ohio or Cincinnati, and ambitious scheduling, while nice for the TV ratings, can lead to nasty upsets while the Buckeyes are still getting unfamiliar parts settled into place. Think Virginia Tech in 2014, or USC in 2009, or even Oregon last year. Ohio State was definitely better than any of those teams, but the Buckeyes had some early-season vulnerabilities their opponents were able to exploit (inexperienced QB, whatever the hell 2009's play calling was). Last year, we were totally in the dark as to how Coombs's defense would pan out. Sure, the 2020 defense skidded on its face to the finish line, but was that incompetence from the coordinator or the understandable fruits of COVID cancellations and disqualifications? We started an all-new back seven against Minnesota to tune up for Oregon and they were clearly not ready for noontime the following week. The offense played well enough to win except for a couple of crucial fourth down miscues and an inopportune turnover late. Remember when people wondered if CJ Stroud even belonged on the depth chart, after he put up 484 yards against the Ducks on an injured shoulder? Remember when the coaches still thought starting Master Teague over TreVeyon Henderson (or even Miyan Williams) was our path to rushing success? And now this year's team needs to be ready to perform without a warmup. Even the 2009, 2014, and 2021 teams got relatively light aperitifs before their faceplants. But this year, the cleat is on the other foot. At the risk of contradicting everything I just said, I love opening against Notre Dame this year. Suddenly, it's Ohio State with all the pieces already in place on offense, and a decent amount of experience (for better or worse) on the defensive side, including shiny new safety Tanner McCallister familiar with the new (and hopefully improved) scheme and fresh off a Fiesta Bowl win against...Notre Dame! The Irish are breaking in a new QB, a new RB, and a brand new head coach, and are missing their top WR, all on the road at night at one of the toughest stadiums in the world, which will be r o c k i n g on Saturday. What should we expect to see? Well, unless Aidan Hutchinson magically appears on the Irish D-line, I don't think anyone is going to be able to slow down the Ohio State attack, at least between the 20's. God-willing, Big Ten Legend Justin Frye has been able to do something about our red zone running game, but we also saw a little shake and bake from Stroud toward the end of last season (that touchdown against TTUN that got called back was lovely) that may open up some additional scoring opportunities this year. Expect to pull your hair out a few (or more) times watching Notre Dame break open huge plays on busted assignments, but much like Michigan State and Purdue last year I don't expect them to keep pace with the Buckeyes early. Then the pressure, the lights, and Stadium O-H-I-O should do the rest. Buckeyes win convincingly and buy themselves some time to get the defense fully ironed into place. OSU: 48--ND: 31
Schweinfurth: Nothing like a big game on campus. I can't remember a build up to an opener like this since, maybe, Washington in 2003. The Buckeye offense is just loaded. CJ Stroud is healthy entering this year (unlike the shoulder fatigue he had last year) and from all accounts has only improved. TreVeyon Henderson is a year more mature and got a full year in the Marrotti Dojo. And then the receiving corps is just *chef's kiss* the cherry on top. My eyes will be on the defense though. What did Jim Knowles do to get this unit playing with confidence and speed? Watch out if this unit is even a middle of the pack unit this year. As for the game. Ohio State just has so much more talent than Notre Dame. I love Marcus Freeman. He's always been my guy. He just doesn't have the talent to match up, yet. This feels closer than the 17.5 spread that's being offered up right now. Time to get that early season night game monkey off the back. OSU: 35--ND: 21 
Seeberg:  The storylines in this one are just endless. Top 5 opening week matchup, historically great programs, head coach coming into his former stadium, new DC in Columbus, Heisman favorite QB, just pick one.  For me, this one is strength on strength (OSU O, ND D) and weakness on assumed weakness (ND O, OSU D).  As mediocre as Ohio State's defense was last year, the new scheme fits our personnel seamlessly.  Losing Proctor on the back end last year hurt, as he could mask deficiencies well.  Now, the 4-2-5 base defense they will be in takes a linebacker off the field (a position of weakness for several years now), and adds another DB (McAllister, Proctor and Hickman might be the best 3-safety combination in the country).  With Burke shutting down one side of the field every week, I genuinely expect the D to be top 20.  Any defense that good when coupled with the absurd talent on offense will be a combination that should produce a lot of Ws.  Oddly, the past 15 years or so the Buckeyes have struggled at home in these big early-season games, but nearly all of those losses have something in common:  Breaking in a new starting QB (Troy against Texas, Barrett against VT, Stroud against Oregon).  Clearly not the case this year.  There's also a rumor the Buckeyes will be in scarlet-and-gray sleeves again for this one (PLEASE) to pay homage to the '02 title team.  Let's make the scoreline pay homage to the '95 squad as Eddie, Hoying, Glenn, er, I mean Henderson, Stroud and JSN run away from the Irish.  OSU: 45--ND: 26

Upset Special
Draper: ECU over NC State
Hoying: Western Michigan over Michigan State
Schweinfurth: South Dakota State over Iowa
Seeberg:  North Dakota over Nebraska