Mythbusters: Fiesta Bowl

Flash back to a year (and two days) ago. You just saw what may have been the best Buckeye team in your lifetime come up just short against their most annoying modern recurring foe after jumping out to a 16-0 lead and seeming to have the game well in hand. It hurt like hell, and it felt like Ohio State would have gotten the job done if only one of so many bad breaks (and bad calls) had gone their way. 

But does this stand up to scrutiny?

There's no way to be sure without going back and rewatching the game. And I can't think of many activities I would enjoy less. But, because I love you, loyal reader, so much, and because I would spare you from experiencing this awful pain yourself, I went back and watched the whole thing again. We'll go through a few lasting impressions that have seemed to resonate most strongly with Buckye Nation over the last year. 

Myth #1: All the breaks went against Ohio State. Any one of them plays out differently and the Buckeyes win.

Verdict: BUSTED

It is true that Ohio State had a lot of bad breaks in the Fiesta Bowl:

• Garrett Wilson's circus catch on the first drive, while overturned on replay to give Ohio State a first down instead of an incompletion, completely broke the momentum of that first drive.
• Dobbins got caught by the foot on his second big breakaway run and went down at the 8 instead of in the end zone.
• Dobbins then dropped a pass in the end zone.
• On the next drive, Dobbins dropped a well set-up screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16.
• Shaun Wade's targeting ejection turned a 3rd down sack into a first down and robbed Ohio State of their best slot corner.
• Dobbins hurt his ankle, missed a second quarter and a third quarter drive, and came back with a heavily taped ankle.
• Josh Proctor fell down chasing Trevor Lawrence on his 67 yard TD run.
• Cam Brown roughed the punter after missing the ball.
• Okudah's strip of Justyn Ross and Fuller's scoop and score were overturned on replay.
• Clemson muffed a punt before their last drive but immediately fell on the ball.
• And, of course, Olave broke off his route as Fields let the ball go straight at Nolan Turner.

That's a lot of big-time mistakes, almost all of which directly and proximately made a difference on the scoreboard. BUT, you may forget that the Buckeyes caught a decent number of breaks as well.

• Clemson's top receiver, Tee Higgins, hit his head on the ground on Clemson's first drive and misses the entire first half. Ask Troy Smith what losing your top receiver does to your offense. Heck, ask Justin Fields.
• Clemson missed a field goal on their first drive.
• Clemson dropped a sure pick six on Ohio State's third drive.
• Wide open Higgins dropped the ball on third down at midfield as Clemson was driving to try to take the lead coming out of the half.

Yes, most of the bad breaks went against the Buckeyes, but Higgins' absence cannot be overstated, and a pick six is always a game changer.

Myth #2: The Buckeyes win the Fiesta Bowl if Dobbins doesn't get hurt.

Verdict: BUSTED

Everyone remembers two things about Dobbins' performance in the Fiesta Bowl: (1) he ripped off multiple huge runs before he got hurt, and (2) he didn't do a whole lot after his ankle was taped up. This is mostly true, but it ignores a key part of the game: the period between Dobbins' second huge run and his ankle injury. 

The first quarter ended with JK Dobbins tearing off a 64 yard run to the Clemson 8 yard line, capping off a 6 rush, 141 yard quarter. Dobbins left the game with an ankle injury with 2:05 remaining in the first half. Between these two events, here was his production:

• 3 yard rush on second and goal
• Dropped TD pass on third and goal
• Dropped screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16
• Rush for no gain to start a drive
• Rush for a loss of 2 yards on 3rd and 1, injured ankle

That's five touches for a total of one yard. Dobbins had himself a first quarter but was strangely ineffective for the second. The Buckeyes were already starting to sprinkle in Master Teague before Dobbins got hurt, as Teague had four rushes to Dobbins' three during the pre-injury second quarter.

After returning, Dobbins did this:

• 2 yard rush
• 5 yard rush
• 11 yard reception
• 4 yard rush
• 7 yard reception
• 2 yard rush
• 11 yard rush
• 1 yard rush
• 2 yard rush
• 6 yard rush
• Rush for loss of 1 yard
• 13 yard reception
• 9 yard reception
• 9 yard reception

Not great, but not bad. And those last three receptions were on Ohio State's last drive, where they were moving the ball seemingly at will before you-know-what happened. And Dobbins himself was wide open for another 5 to 10 yard checkdown pass on that fateful play. Nobody wanted to see Dobbins hobbled, but he was able to be productive enough post-injury.

Myth #3: The refs hosed Ohio State out of a win.

Verdict: Wait a second. This one's a little complicated. When people think this, they usually have two plays in mind:

1. Shaun Wade's sack / targeting ejection.
2. Okudah's strip and Fuller's scoop and score, overturned on replay.

Regarding #1, the myth is BUSTED. It is true that the importance of this play cannot be overstated. At this point in the game, Ohio State had a 16 point lead, the Clemson offense had done absolutely nothing, and Wade had just scored a huge drive ending sack that threatened to knock Lawrence out of the game. In an instant, Ohio State lost their best slot corner, the Clemson drive was extended, and, after throwing at Wade's replacement (Amir Riep) on the next play and drawing a DPI, the Tigers got on the board almost immediately, scoring their first of three straight touchdowns. HOWEVER, the call was the correct one. Wade lowered his head and hit Lawrence's helmet with the crown of his helmet. Was it a dirty hit? No. Was it targeting by the letter of the rule? Yes. Would Wade have hit Lawrence helmet-to-helmet anyway if both he and Lawrence didn't lower their helmets? Probably? Is the targeting rule the worst rule in sports? Yes. But blame goes to the rule writers, not the refs on the field (or in the replay booth).

Regarding #2, the myth is PLAUSIBLE. Ross caught the ball and brought it down while he took three quick steps, all before the ball came out. Nothing approaching "indisputable video evidence" was available to reverse the scoop and score call on the field. This would have given Ohio State back the lead immediately after losing it, but it's hard to say whether the game would have gone in Ohio State's favor from there. After the botched call, Clemson had to punt anyway and then Fields threw an interception. Maybe with the momentum and the lead the Buckeyes could have done something differently, but they ended up taking the lead back on the next drive after that anyway.

Myth #4: The Buckeyes dominated the Tigers, but a tiny handful of big plays and costly errors cost them the game.

Verdict: CONFIRMED

Ohio State outgained Clemson by 99 yards and converted 7 of 18 third downs to Clemson's 5 of 14, adding 1-for-1 on fourth down as well. The Buckeyes scored on 5 drives to Clemson's 4. But there were a few plays when they couldn't get out of their own way, and a few when you just have to tip your cap to the Tigers:

• Dobbins drops two probable touchdown passes, taking 8 points off the board.
• Shaun Wade's targeting sack and Amir Riep's subsequent DPI gifted Clemson the ball at the Ohio State 16 after the drive had been dead stopped, and Clemson (unlike Ohio State all game) is able to convert in the red zone for the TD.
• Clemson has the ball on their own 33 with 1:22 left in the first half and one timeout, and rips off a 67 yard QB draw.
• Roughing the punter, followed almost immediately by a 53 yard dumpoff TD pass to Travis Etienne. Another Clemson scoring drive that had to be brought back from the dead.
• The overturned scoop and score.

And after all that, the Buckeyes were knocking on the door, down six, at the Clemson 23, with 43 seconds left, and moving the ball with surprising ease.

Myth #5: Everybody thought Ohio State was going to pull it off at the end.

Verdict: I mean, I did. Didn't you?

New Year's Six - Now with 0% More Indiana

Final Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 25-9 (2-6 upset)
1.) Draper 25-9 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)

It's been the kind of year in college football where people are outraged that Cincinnati's not in the Playoff and Indiana and Coastal Carolina aren't in major bowl games. Then again, it's been the kind of year where the Power 5 conference champions are Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama. Let's hope the Playoff is on the weird side.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators

Draper: When the New Years 6 was (were?) created, it was thought that this would create incentives beyond the playoff to support the bowl system.  The problem is that it's not having the desired effect in most cases.  Motivation for the bowl matters...a lot...and the Gators don't seem to care.  They had their shot against Bama, emptied the chamber, and ended up falling short.  They have nothing left.  While I think (at full strength) the Gators are far FAR more talented than the Sooners, the Sooners are excited to have won the Big 12 after fighting their way into the mix.  Spencer Rattler and company will be able to keep up with Kyle Trask and the backups.  I lean on the motivation side and the Sooners. Soon-to-be Bengal, Kyle Pitts, will watch from afar knowing that his presence would have likely given the Gators the win.  BOOMER! UF: 30 -- OU: 36
Hoying: When you saw the Gators polish off Oklahoma back in 2008 for their second national title in three years (grrr...), you probably didn't think it would be the Sooners who would be competing for national titles over the next decade-plus while Florida foundered around trying to get out of the SEC East unscathed. But, here we are, with Oklahoma missing the Playoff for the first time since 2016, and only the third time ever. Of course, it's not like their appearances have been anything to write home about. Other than taking the ball out of Baker Mayfield's hands in the 2018 Rose Bowl to gack away a game against Georgia, the Sooners haven't come within single digits of any other Playoff competitor, mostly because their defense has been so awful. It turns out that one team in this game has a pretty awful defense, but it's not Oklahoma. The Gators have been able to overcome a so-so defense with their terrific offensive power (sounds like another team I know formerly coached by Urban Meyer). Problem is the horses are rapidly leaving the stable, as all-NCAA pass catcher Kyle Pitts and WRs Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are skipping the Cotton Bowl to focus on their future NFL careers. Don't worry, Kyle Trask will still be back there, but as we saw last week in Indianapolis, losing your top target(s) can drastically alter the comfort level of an offense. And unlike Ohio State, Florida does not have any semblance of a running game to fall back on. I felt pretty good picking the Gators before this latest rash of desertions, but this Boomer Sooner D is too good to be punked by second string wide receivers. UF: 23--OU: 27

Schweinfurth: I'm just going to throw this out there now, I don't think anyone really knows what we are going to see in any of these not-playoff games this year. This has been a long season for all these guys and most of them are just mentally worn down more than normal. With that said, I don't trust either of these teams. Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Florida can't run the ball. That makes Florida sound like a typical Big 12 team. That may be an advantage for Oklahoma, but there is just something about this Oklahoma team I just can't trust. This game should be a shootout. I'll take Trask with one final big drive of the year (unless a defender throws a shoe. Honestly, who throws a shoe?). UF: 42--OU: 35

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Peach Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game of 'who wants to be here?'  While Cincinnati wanted more, this is far and away their biggest game of the year; whereas UGA was playoff or bust.  Does this game matter to them? Will the lesser talent of the Bearcats (sorry, it's true) be bolstered by the motivation to prove they belong? I actually think there's a good chance Georgia sleepwalks throughout this even though they've been playing decent football lately.  This is a tough one as the Bulldogs motivation is to not get sniped by the G5 opponent.  This is a case of wanted to 'not lose' is more important than winning.  There will be a ton of opt-outs on the Georgia side, but I after watching the American Championship, I don't think UC has the horses to keep up with a second tier UGA squad.  This should be a really fun game to watch, but the big Dawg keeps the title and the SEC homers pound their chests.  UC: 27 -- UGA: 30  
Hoying: Mark Dantonio isn't roaming the sidelines in Cincinnati anymore but the disrespekt train is still chugging dourly along. After Notre Dame grabbed the #4 spot in the Playoff (obviously), the cries arose of "why not Cincinnati? They went undefeated and won by a bunch!" Why not Cincinnati? Because they played zero Power 5 teams this year. Because they beat Tulsa on a last second field goal. Because they looked pretty good last year too and they got whacked by Ohio State 42-0. Coastal Carolina had by far the better argument, but the Committee made it obvious early on that neither of these teams was sniffing the Playoff. Now, with all that being said, is Cincinnati good enough to beat Georgia? Maybe? Georgia is probably the single most overrated team in the nation this year, getting spanked soundly by both Alabama and Florida and beating a total of one team with a winning record (6-4 Auburn). Yeah, yeah, they're supposedly so much better now that they have JT Daniels at QB instead of Stetson Bennett IV, but it's easy to look good against South Carolina and Missouri. This is probably Kirby Smart's worst UGA team since his first year, and this is probably Luke Fickell's best UC team, but again, 42 to nothing. Nobody will mistake Georgia for 2019 Ohio State but I refuse to believe that Cincinnati has improved by leaps and bounds in this bizarre season. UC: 20--UGA: 27

Schweinfurth: Cincinnati is motivated. I mean really, really motivated. They have heard all year how it's great they are undefeated, and then the committee drops them 5 places behind 2 and 3 loss teams. My stance on the committee is a discussion for later, but this is a HUGE step up in competition. I want Cincinnati to win, just to throw it in committee's face. Unfortunately, the talent just doesn't match up. This will be a dog fight to the end. I expect nothing less from a Luke Fickell lead team. If Georgia shows up, they win. Again, where are they mentally? UC: 17--UGA: 21

SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: So excited for Indiana to get their shot on the big st....what? Iowa-freaking-State? Come on.  This was the Hoosiers moment and we get a flimsy conference (yet not division) champion vs....a 3-loss Big 12 team? sheesh.  Motivation again reigns supreme.  The Ducks looked good against the Trojans in the Pac12 title so maybe the preseason expectations are coming true.  While the Clones made the Big 12 title game close, they were getting blasted early by OU and mounted a furious comeback.  Did they empty the chamber? Is Matt Campbell coaching with an eye on Ann Arbor? I think I'll throw the dart here.  The Ducks show the Pac 12 still exists (although no one cares) and they emerge from the desert victorious.  QUACK! Ore: 31 -- ISU: 24
Hoying: Congratulations to the Oregon Ducks on being the 2012 Wisconsin of the Pac-12. One more loss than both the Washington Huskies and the USC Trojans wasn't going to stop the totally pedestrian Ducks from making their second consecutive New Year's Six appearance. Oregon didn't play any games out of conference this year, which severely curtailed their chances of picking up a quality loss like the Cyclones' defeat at the hands of Louisiana (no, not Louisiana State, Louisiana). But seriously, the Clones have looked a lot better since their baffling season-opening loss, including coming up just 34 yards short of a Big 12 Championship. I'm inclined to pick the team enjoying steady success over the team whose season has been going in fits and starts (sigh) and included a two-game skid against bad teams. I put no stock in the Ducks' win over USC; the Trojans are a mediocre team that was begging to get tagged. OU and OSU are the real deal and ISU hung tough with both. The Cyclones cap what may be the greatest season in school history and cement Matt Campbell's status at the top of every team's wish list. Ore: 20--ISU: 31

Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of Oregon (or the Pac-12 for that matter). I watched one game Pac-12 game this year and it was USC/Oregon. I was underwhelmed by both teams. Iowa State has been playing extremely well, outside of the Big 12 title game. Matt Campbell gets his guys ready. I'll take the Cyclones. Ore: 24--ISU: 35

Orange Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: I know I'm a broken record, but does A&M want to prove they were snubbed (they weren't) or do they fade quietly into that good night.  Good news for them is that UNC isn't very good.  Sam Howell is a nice QB albeit inconsistent, but let's not forget this Tarheels team lost to FSU (TALKIN!)--not a feather in one's cap.  A&M defeated the Gators in front of a capacity crowd and was thoroughly 'meh' through the rest of their schedule (albeit the drubbing to Bama).  Their resume (and even the stupid 'eye-test') were much weaker than the media would lead you to believe.  That said....3 point loss to Florida State in 2020.  Tarheels find a way to blow this one to another team with few starters. UNC: 24 -- TAMU: 34

Hoying: OK, speaking of teams (not Cincinnati) with at least colorable cases to be put in the Playoff, here we have the Texas A&M Aggies, who survived a league-only schedule in America's Favorite Conference (TM) with only one loss. Granted, the loss was by a million to the team which won their division, and unlike Notre Dame they didn't split a series with such juggernaut, but they tried real hard and beat a good team or two along the way. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. A&M has a great drag-it-out, ball control, game control boa constrictor game style, whereas UNC opts for the point-a-minute high flying offense. Now, Notre Dame showed that the Tar Heel attack can be stopped, but, as I just said above, Texas A&M isn't Notre Dame. That being said, the Aggies have shown that they can keep up with potent offenses when they need to. Just look at the Florida game. Mack is hot stuff in bowl games, but so is Jimbo, and the Aggies' overall talent should be the difference maker. UNC: 31--TAMU: 34

Schweinfurth: I have no idea with this game. On one hand, you have UNC, who can't stop anyone for 2.5 quarters and then suddenly becomes a world beater. On the other, you have TAMU who haven't looked like a top 10 team at times this year. I think that TAMU is the more consistant team of the two and that should lead to a good victory over a growing program. Let's prop up that SEC even more! UNC: 35--TAMU: 38

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1 again

[Rose] Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: In the words of a great man (Raffi from The League), "This....is gonna be gross".  Notre Dame rightly got the 4th spot in the playoff, but Bama is still Bama.  Imagine if the committee was more intelligent and put A&M in the 4th spot....what could they do to Bama if they only had their shot?  I'll admit that the Irish have outpunched their weight class this year, but I don't see the path here.  Ian Book has had quite a career in the gold.  It's just a shame this will likely be the sad ending.  Mac Jones, Devonta Smith, and Najee Harris are going to make mincemeat out of the Irish D and I expect the Tide defense to limit Notre Dame as much or more than Clemson did in the ACC championship.  The Gators put points up on Saban, but the Kyles (Pitts and Trask) aren't waking up the echoes here.  Bama by a million.  ND: 13--Bama: 52
Hoying: Much is being made of the two eggs Notre Dame has laid in their last two BCS/Playoff appearances, losing by 28 and 27. Granted, those losses were against the teams of the decade, Alabama and Clemson, but uh oh, look who's coming for the Irish this time. This Alabama team looks as good as any Saban has coached, with the possible exception of 2018, and their juggernaut offense stops for nobody. The great offense-defense switcheroo of 2020 has not spared Notre Dame, who have ridden their defense into their second Playoff appearance. Unfortunately, this defense failed them in both games they played against the other Playoff team they've played this season, giving up 33 (in regulation) and 34 to Clemson. That's bad news when you're facing the likely Heisman winner, another Heisman finalist, and the top non-finalist vote getter. There really isn't a reason to pick the Irish in this one. They've won one shootout this season, and it was in a game where their opponent was missing two of their linebackers and a D-lineman. You can score on Bama if you're up to it, but not before they put 50 on you first. ND: 27--Bama: 42

Schweinfurth: There really isn't much to break down here. The Irish are in this position based on one win against a depleted Clemson team. Bama is just stocked top to bottom and you need an NFL caliber defense to stop them. Notre Dame gets embarrassed on a national stage again. Bama by a trillion. ND: 17--Bama: 52

Sugar Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: We have the rematch against the team we cannot seem to beat.  Sadly, last year was the much better shot and we had it.  This is the year of motivation from the opposite side.  Will the desire to avenge a loss allow for reaching a higher level or cause silly mistakes with over-pursuit.  I don't feel great about this game with the severely depleted defense compared to last year, but Clemson is also worse for the wear.  Lawrence has the edge over Fields because it seems that Fields has had a level of indecision and lack of confidence in his throws since the IU game.  Is it the yips? Something behind the scenes? Too much pressing? Ryan Day was right in saying that we haven't seen this Buckeye team play their best game of the season; and we'll need it Friday to have a shot.  Olave and Wilson need to shine while Trey Sermon's performance last week should make the Tigers pay some attention.  Can the D limit Lawrence and Etienne? I think the key is getting pressure with the front 4 (which has been fantastic this year) and preventing the big play (not as fantastic).  Maybe Lawrence is focused on real estate in Jacksonville rather than prepping? I don't care.  This is a Buckeye blog and I love my team.  The magic happens and the Bucks win a shoot out. I'm no fake-Buckeye.  Clem: 40 -- OSU: 41

Hoying: It's finally here. The most anticipated rematch for Buckeye fans since 2014 Michigan State, and the stakes couldn't be higher. On paper, this is not a great matchup for the scarlet and gray. Trevor Lawrence may not be winning the Heisman this year, but he's still the consensus #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and he's throwing against an Ohio State secondary that played hide and don't seek (you're excused, Mr. Wade) against the only other effective passing attack they've faced. The good news is that Ohio State probably has slight edges in each other phase of the game. Dobbins ripped apart the Clemson front seven last year, and Sermon has the right skill set (one cut and go) to make the Tigers pay again. Travis Etienne did a whole lot of nothing when getting the ball behind the line of scrimmage last year, and the Clemson O-line has taken a step back overall, while the Buckeye linebackers are as good as they've been since 2015's monster trio of Lee, McMillan, and Perry. And Justin Fields is still really, really good, Northwestern game notwithstanding, and he'll have CO2 back to pace him for those 10 yard throws to the sideline. A Buckeye win here would probably look a lot like the 2015 Oregon game: control the flow, lean on the running game (including the QB), and come up with enough plays on defense to knock the elite opposing QB out of his rhythm. Don't forget that the Tigers are missing safety Nolan Turner, the greatest Clemson game ending villain since Charlie Bauman, for the first half, due to a targeting ejection against Notre Dame. It would be nice to jump out to another early lead, and then not lose it to momentum stealing body blows (or head blows) this time. A Buckeye loss here would probably look like, well, the 2014 Orange Bowl. Who else still has nightmares of Tajh Boyd to Sammy Watkins on every freaking play? The Buckeyes will be coming out frothing at the mouth (hopefully not literally) for this one, between the way last year ended and Dabo's continued trolling. Under Urban, the Buckeyes always looked their best when the whole world counted them out, but I think the lack of reps and the loss of talent in the secondary is going to be too much to overcome. If by some miracle the Silver Bullets can keep from getting beat deep, look for Lawrence to win the game with his legs the way he did last time. There's always next year, Buckeye Nation (for real this time, hopefully). After what happened in August, I'm glad we were able to get this far. Clem: 38--OSU: 28

Schweinfurth: Dabo is a hypocrite, a troll, and just unlikable at this point. The dude just needs to lean into the villain role and waffling. At least then I would respect the guy. With that said, this game is one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes pushed the B1G into playing this season. The Bucks got jobbed last year (weak targeting and botched catch/fumble). In reality, this is how it has gone against Clemson two of the last three times these teams have played. The Bucks have been up in those two games and then weird and stupid stuff happens. What worries my is the start/stop nature of this season. The Bucks haven't had the chance to really build up through this year. It would have been nice to get the full schedule, or only one cancellation, so this team could get live reps. The defense has shown signs of gelling and was making fewer mistakes in the last few games. Clemson will magnify these mistakes (see Lawrance's huge run last year). The Buckeyes have all the motivation they need to win this game. Will that be enough? At some point, that motivation can become crushing pressure. I think this will be close. I think Ohio State will have a lead in this game. And I think something stupid will happen to let motor mouth a-hole get the win. Clem: 24--OSU: 21

Week 16: Win and In

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 19-9 (2-6 upset)
1.) Draper 19-9 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 19-9 (1-7 upset)

Just like we all expected after the Fiesta Bowl last year, the Buckeyes come into Championship Weekend 2020 undefeated, heavily favored, and one win away from a certain Playoff berth. That's all that really matters, right?

On a side note, given how precious each game has been this fall (even the rematches), the How Pointless? meter is on a one year hiatus.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Washington Huskies Oregon Ducks @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Oh, the Pac 12 has a championship? That's cute.  I also enjoy how they spin the wheel to determine the teams, but alas, 2020.  Oregon entered the season with the weight of a conference on their shoulders but the Trojans enter with the slim hope that someone on the committee will watch the game on Friday night.  USC has won multiple games on last minute prayers....and Oregon has been supremely meh.  In these crazy times, I'm going to revert to the prior and give the edge to the team who's coach just got a monster extension.  Quack.  Ore: 31 -- USC: 27
Hoying: Here come the Trojans and the Ducks, fresh off their grueling five game schedules (shhhhh...) and ready to battle for a nice pat on the head and invitation to one of the few bowls that will probably actually be played. I mean, technically, USC should still be as deep in the playoff hunt as anybody (and a darn sight deeper than teams like Florida or Iowa State) but the Committee's list of random opinions this season does not include giving any credence to the powers out west. And, it's kind of tough to blame them. USC has not looked particularly impressive in any of their games this season, with the possible exception of boatracing Washington State a couple of weeks back. The passing attack is pretty solid but that's about all the Trojans have going for them. Oregon is the team everyone thought was supposed to be good this year in the Pac-12 but the defense just hasn't been there (that's how you lose to your not-very-good rival despite scoring 38 points). This one could easily go either way: USC is a pretty awful team during the first 59 minutes of gameplay but capable of Mario Kart computer player cheatingesque play in the crunchiest of crunch time. If Mario Cristobal is the hot coaching commodity everyone thinks he is, he should be able to find a way to game plan around this. Ducks finally find a way to close out the Trojans this season. Ore: 38--USC: 34

Schweinfurth: USC has to lose at some point. Every week they seem to squeak by an opponent who has them on the ropes. UCLA was a boneheaded kickoff away from beating them last week.  Oregon has been given a gift here and I do believe they will play like they have nothing to lose here. The close game bug finally bites the Trojans. OU: 42--USC: 41

SATURDAY

Big 12: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: So we have the #6 (what?) Cyclones playing...let's see...Oh crap, Oklahoma? In the Big 12 Title game? Smash the Sooners.  Oklahoma doesn't lose these games, and certainly not to Iowa freaking State.  While the Buckeyes have been penciled in as the B1G Champ every year, Clemson for the ACC, and Bama (sort of) for the SEC, OU has been the constant in Big 12 country.  I don't see that changing under Spencer Rattler.  OU returns to the NY6 and Iowa State says goodbye to Matt Campbell (welcome to the B1G).  OU: 38 -- ISU: 31
Hoying:  Alabama. Ohio State. Oklahoma. The three paragons of elite-level consistency in college football, and the three teams you'd be a fool to bet against in a conference championship game. Yes, Iowa State and Oklahoma already played this season. Yes, Iowa State won that game. But since that date, which anchored the midpoint of a weird three game stretch of mediocre play for the Sooners, Oklahoma has been on a tear, including an evisceration of the Oklahoma State team that beat Iowa State. Of course, Iowa State did even worse things to the Kansas State team that beat Oklahoma, but the Clones haven't been as sharp overall as the Sooners, struggling against Baylor and needing a big comeback to handle Texas. I don't think they're racking up another 37 points against OU this week. It's a terrible irony that the Sooners have the defense this year to make some noise in the Playoff, and they won't be making an appearance despite avenging their loss to the Cyclones this Saturday. Better luck next year (to all of us). OU: 35--ISU: 27

Schweinfurth: It is hard to beat a team twice in a year (that goes for this and the game below). Oklahoma has looked better, but not great. On paper, the Sooners are the superior team and Matt Campbell has done some amazing things with the Cyclones. I just can't see ISU winning two against the Oklahoma. OU: 45--ISU: 35

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Will this game go as everyone expects now that Trevor Lawrence has returned? Yes, I think so.  Clemson hasn't lost in the regular season lately so I'm guessing this is revenge.  I have not bought in to Notre Dame this year regardless of the record.  This has been to my detriment at times, but I don't see the Irish pulling off another win against the Orange giant.  Clemson seems to have taken a step back from the past few years, but I wonder if they're just slow playing until the playoff.  Trevor Lawrence has certainly reminded us why he is almost a lock to be a Jet next year.  Notre Dame still backs into the playoff, but Clemson lays the wood.  Clem: 38 -- ND: 24
Hoying: Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lack of intrigue in this year's conference championship games? Yeah, maybe it's because the only ones that really matter are the Big Ten and the ACC (Bama is going to the Playoff either way and Florida is not), but it seems like the conventional wisdom has picked a clear winner in most of the games. Bama. Buckeyes. OU. And...Clemson. Is this warranted? Yeah, Notre Dame needed everything in the bag to get by Clemson the first time...in OT...at home...with Lawrence out, but the Irish have been playing really good football this year. Better even than in 2018, where they went undefeated against the Revenge Tour and a bunch of "meh"s before getting blasted by Clemson 2016 Fiesta Bowl style. Clemson is in danger of losing its hat seeing how it's precariously hanging on an early blowout win over a Miami team that was just badly exposed last week against North Carolina. These teams may be just as equally matched as their prior clash would indicate. But never underestimate the revenge factor. Notre Dame was clearly feeling it under the lights in South Bend after the humiliation they suffered at the Tigers' hands in the Playoff, and now Clemson is clearly annoyed that they've been knocked out of the driver's seat in the ACC for the first time since the days of Famous Jameis. If anybody can craft disrespekt out of nothing, it's Dabo, and despite the fact that everybody and their momma is picking Clemson to win this weekend, you can bet the Tigers are going to play with their hair on fire, salivating at the prospect of facing the Buckeyes for the third time in the last five years. Good luck against Alabama, Notre Dame. You're going to need it. Clem: 31--ND: 30

Schweinfurth: To be honest, this game doens't move the meter for me. I don't think Notre Dame is this world beater everyone has made them out to be. Ian Book is kinda meh. After watching round 1, I believed this game would have been different if Trevor Lawrence was allowed to play. We finally get to see it this week, and I'm not sure it will be very close. Unfortunately, that just means we have to listen to Dabo run his mouth for two more weeks. Clem: 35--ND: 21

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators

Draper: I feel a little like a broken record, but in college football, the rich keep getting richer.  Death, taxes, and Bama.  Florida has been a surprising good team this year that absolutely crapped the bed last week.  Can the coaches get them to believe in the outside shot at a playoff berth? Probably not, but who knows.  On the other hand, Bama has been otherworldly this year. They've steamrolled every contender and I don't think this changes.  While Kyle Trask may have been the Heisman frontrunner, I think Mac Jones steals it in the SEC Championship.  Quarterback on the best team? Seems like a recipe for success.  Ala: 38 -- Florida: 24
Hoying: I'm not here to downplay Alabama's performance this season, but when was the last time this defense was really tested? Not against Georgia: this was back when the Dawgs still thought Stetson Bennett was a viable option. Really, the only good offense the Tide has faced was Ole Miss back in their third game, and they got absolutely lit up for 647 yards and 48 points. If that Tide defense shows up in this one, we could be looking at a long overtime battle as neither offense ever leaves the field except via the end zone. The problem is, if the Gators fail to hold serve even once, the Alabama offense won't do them the courtesy of stumbling back. There's no offense in the nation more potent than Alabama's, and Florida just showed last week that they're even capable of giving up big points to bad teams, too. When I made by midseason Heisman prediction in favor of Mac Jones, it was in anticipation of Alabama going nuclear in this matchup and Kyle Trask falling a step behind. I originally thought this would be another Bama by a million battle, but I think Florida can score enough in this one to keep it interesting. Then again, I thought Georgia would keep it close with LSU last year. Ala: 45--Fla: 34

Schweinfurth: I do believe Alabama is beatable, you just have to be able to score on every possession. So, think about Florida, do they have a defense that can stop Bama? I'm not sure. Can they score with Bama? I don't think so. Trask has been good, but Florida has been a one trick pony all year. Saban will find a way to slow Trask down and then game over man. Ala: 42--Fla: 28

AAC: Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Cincinnati joins Indiana and Coastal Carolina on the list of those spurned by the committee.  I know they have no real wins of note, but they have looked good in their games thus far and remained unscathed (which is saying something).  Tulsa was seen as the contender to the Bearcats prior to the cancellation, but now we get to see the game fo realz.  Fickell has truly built something special this year, and it's a shame they can't show it on a bigger scale (until the NY6 maybe).  The Bearcats won't let up this week proving that they're Ohio's only BCS Ohio's 2nd team in the NY6.  UC: 40 -- Tulsa: 24
Hoying: You can't deny great matchups like this one forever. After round one between the cream of the AAC was delayed, and then delayed again, and then cancelled, round two (one?) is now finally upon us. The Bearcats have looked as impressive this season as any since their magical 2009 run that knocked on the door of the BCS National Championship Game, but no amount of style points will get them anywhere near the postseason tourney this year. That's bad news for the Golden Hurricane, who will likely have to take the brunt of the Bearcats' frustrations this week. Tulsa's a good team, with a pretty good defense, but Cincinnati has been playing at Power 5 level for the past few seasons under Fickell, who will likely find himself at Power 5 level in the near future (I would say please not anywhere maize and blue, but I'd still like Ryan Day's chances against him). Cincinnati is great in all phases of the game (you can nitpick the passing attempt if you're desperate to find something) and they won't trip up with their first major bowl appearance in over a decade in their sights. UC: 31--Tulsa: 16

Schweinfurth: Cincinnati should win this game. I want to take a moment to defend the Bearcats here. These guys got screwed, hard, by the committee this week. I have never understood the committee's decisions and the "eye" test drives me crazy. I do believe that we should go back to a BCS style system that involves computers, because then strenth of schedule and quality opponents are truly taken into account. That system would have the Bearcats ranked 5th. I'll be rooting for Fickell this weekend just so we can see how this really plays out and to lock up a NY6 bowl. UC: 35--Tulsa: 20

Big Ten: Northwestern Wildcats vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Not going to lie, I'm concerned about this WR COVID talk.  Without that concern, this could get ugly FAST.  With that concern.....it's probably going to get ugly FAST.  The Buckeyes have been taking the slings and arrows for the 'favorable' treatment they've received (don't let that distract you from a forfeiture against TTUN would still have landed the Bucks in Indy, or that 2 of the cancellations were beyond their control, or that the only other option is 3 win PSU, or that....) and I think they're sick of it.  This team wants to show they are here to win, and Northwestern has volunteered as tribute.  I've watched some NW games this year and have been thoroughly unimpressed.  The only prayer is for the wildcat (the scheme not the team) to pull off some monstrous BS.  They can't throw so the weak OSU secondary shouldn't be an issue.  On the other side, if the Buckeyes have all or at least most of the WR corps, it's bombs away.  Maybe this is an opportunity for the young ones to step up.  If Wilson and Olave do play, watch out.  Fields adds at least 5 scores and likely sits for the 4th quarter as the Buckeyes make their final statement.  NU: 10 -- OSU: 63

Hoying: Northwestern has been a nice story for the second year in the last three (what happened last year, though? yeesh), but we saw how that ended last time, and that was against the worst Ohio State defense in living memory. The Wildcat offense may not be as eye-gougingly awful as they were last year but they're still a far cry from the Northwestern spread monsters of the past. No, that offense lives on through Kevin Wilson and the Buckeyes' devastating attack which has yet to be slowed down, let alone stopped, this season. There's only one threat to this Buckeye team this Big Ten season, and it's not anything multicellular (or cellular at all, I suppose). It looks like Ohio State may be without Chris Olave for a while, which sucks, but it's not like they don't have plenty of gamebreaking weapons in the arsenal. It's true that most of them are untested, as Olave and Wilson have gobbled up the vast majority of Justin Fields' passing yards this season, but better to have to break in new guys against Northwestern than Clemson or Alabama. The Cats have a nice defensive scheme that they've been able to ride to success this season. Problem is that it's too turnover-dependent, and I think Fields has learned his lesson after the Indiana debacle (during which he managed to rack up 300 yards and 2 TDs anyway). Plus, as we learned in East Lansing, if all else fails, just line up and bash them over and over with Teague and Sermon, sprinkling in a healthy dose of Fields (as long as it's a dose of healthy Fields) to keep them honest. Northwestern cannot score enough points to hang with Ohio State. The end. On to the Rose Bowl (wherever that is). NU: 13--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Can Northwestern score enough to keep up with Ohio State. The answer to that is emphatically no. Northwestern is a good comeback story from last year, and they will be a tough out. Pat Fitzgerald teams are always tough teams, but this game was something like 56-7 last year. Ohio State didn't lose enough talent on offense and the Wildcats didn't gain enough offense for me to be overly worried. If the rumors are true and Olave is out, it will be time for some of these other highly skilled wideouts to shine. Bucks win and on to the playoffs! NU: 17--OSU: 56

Week 15: We'll Meet Again

Standings:

1.) Draper 17-8 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 16-9 (2-5 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-9 (1-6 upset)

We'll meet again
Don't know where
Don't know when
But I know we'll meet again some sunny day.

- The soundtrack to what Ohio State should have done to That Team Up North this week 

Well, Buckeye Nation, it looks like we'll need to wait until 2021 (please, Lord, no longer) for another chance to hang 100 on you know who. I'm as bummed as you are that we'll be missing out on what would've been the first version of The Game with MAC-like spread. And it's a darn shame that we'll probably never get to see Jim Harbaugh lose to Ohio State again. But, at least for the moment, there are a few sideshows still on the horizon for this weekend while the Bucks gear up for violet violence on Saturday next.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: It's nice the committee felt like another SEC team needed to be ranked.  Georgia has had an exceptionally disappointing year based on the expectations.  While they are likely the 2nd best team in the SEC East, getting blown out by Bama and Florida wasn't in the plan.  However, no one cares, because the team they're playing isn't a contender.  UGA has, for years, crapped the bed whenever a decent team came to town....and Mizzou isn't that.  Another SEC snoozefest as the Dawgs sleepwalk through a 'ranked' win. It will be interesting to see if Geogia has found their QB of the future in J.T. Daniels at least.  UGA: 31 -- Mizz: 17
Hoying: It's amazing how fast Georgia has fallen off the national radar, especially in a year in which so few teams are playing on any given weekend. Yeah, they lost big in both big boy games they've played this season but I remember once upon a time when Alabama - Georgia was supposed to be the game of the season, the first of three possible meetings this year, before everyone figured out that those descriptors were supposed to apply to Clemson - Notre Dame. So what has Georgia been doing since then? Churning through QBs trying to find any viable option they can. Problem is that neither Stetson Bennett nor JT Daniels is even approaching Jake Fromm-level competence. Guess it's just impossible to recruit good QB talent to Georgia. To compensate for this, Georgia is supposed to have the nation's best defense. They don't (another team we're picking this week does), but it's good enough to hold juggernauts like Mississippi State to 24 points so that the Dawgs can eke out a 7 point victory. I guess if I were Georgia I'd be worried, except they're playing an even more lifeless blob, Missouri, whose best win (depending on how you define "best") is either a 41-0 over hapless Vanderbilt or a 20-10 win over 4-6 Kentucky. Well, the Committee's much smarter than I am because they see something in the Tigers that merits a top 25 ranking even with 3 blowout losses (including one to Tennessee). The Tigers have a negative scoring differential on the season, which is a bad sign when you're playing a team that's expected to hold you to a negative score anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia lost this game, but I would be surprised if Missouri won. UGA: 24--Mizz: 13

Schweinfurth: I have not really watched much of Georgia since they were essentially eliminated from any title contention, SEC or otherwise. With that said, I haven't watched any of Mizzou because they just don't move the meter for me. I do think Georgia is the better team. UGA: 31--Mizz: 10

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes

Draper: The Top 10 Hurricanes..wait, what?...um...ok....take on the top 20 Tarheels (hold on, the ones that lost to the Noles?) in a ranked matchup that no one asked for.  This could be really interesting as Carolina has a tendency to light it up or faceplant (spin the wheel!) whereas, I forgot Miami was a thing after that drubbing by Clemson.  I think King for the Canes will be able to out duel the hit/miss UNC attack.  In addition, Miami's defense usually has a little more edge (at least they used to).  I'll rool with the Canes (gross) but I just. don't. care. UNC: 24 --Mia: 30
Hoying: There needs to be at least one fun game this week and I guess this is the best we can do. The Heels are still running their point-a-minute-and-a-half offense (offer not valid in the second half against Notre Dame). Does Miami have the offense to keep up? In a word, no, but the turnover chain might be able to cause enough havoc to keep the Canes in the game. Miami still ranks near the top of the nation in takeaways, and their BFFs the Noles were able to use an early pick 6 to help build a huge lead that Carolina couldn't climb. But I don't see it happening. Miami's been playing with fire for far too long this season. Heels win and both teams end up somehow ranked ahead of Indiana on Tuesday. UNC: 38--Mia: 34

Schweinfurth: UNC has been a very frustrating team to watch. They have great offensive talent, but it takes forever for them to get going. Miami is so turnover dependent and, if they can get enough early turnovers, can make this one interesting. I think this is close, but Mac Brown finally gets that big win this year. UNC: 42--Mia: 31

Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: The hits just keep on coming.  If this isn't the quintessential 'punt to win' game, I don't know what is (shoutout to Drue Chrisman and his punter shade on TTUN).  Wisconsin has just looked terrible in their last two outings, but maybe that's because Northwestern and Indiana are good? Spoiler alert: I think IU is legit but not Northwestern.  Iowa has been quietly 'Kirk Ferentz-ing' another contract season.  The Hawkeyes have likely guaranteed another 4 years on Ferentz's contract with another 'pretty good' season, and the Badgers have been in free fall.  This is likely a battle of who cares...and I think the Hawks are more likely to be up for this one.  Take a nap....it might be more exciting.  UW: 10 -- Iowa: 17
Hoying: Did you enjoy watching Indiana and Wisconsin run back and forth across the 50 and punt from plus territory all day? Because things are about to get a whole lot worse. Small sample size disclaimer, but Wisconsin has produced the nation's best defense by far through four games. First in total defense, first in rushing defense, first in passing defense, second in scoring defense (by one point), you name it, the Badgers have mastered it. Granted, they've been playing incompetent offenses like Michigan, Northwestern, Illinois, and a Penix-less Indiana, but they've risen to the challenge every time. So why are they 2-2? Because in the hellscape that is 2020 Big Ten offense (you're excused, Ohio State), Wisconsin is making a sprint for the bottom, scoring a combined 13 points in their last two games (both losses, obviously). Will that be a problem this week? Oh, it's no big deal, they're only facing the team that hasn't given up 25 points in a game since 2018. Don't worry, the Hawkeyes have found a way to lose 5 games in that timeframe, because their offense doesn't work either. This game could be uglier than the 10-3 abomination the Hawkeyes put on last year in Ann Arbor. Look for Chris Spielman to really enjoy this one (maybe watching through the window with his "Sickos" sweater on). UW: 9--Iowa: 10 (five safeties)

Schweinfurth: Ahh, the B1G rock fight of the week. Wisconsin just hasn't looked right since losing to Northwestern. Iowa has figured out they can run people over to win. The Hawkeyes may be the second best team in the B1G, which isn't saying much. Iowa wins. UW: 7--Iowa: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Troy over Coastal Carolina

Hoying: Illinois over Northwestern
Schweinfurth: UCLA over USC

Week 14: Green and White Knuckling (or, Waiting is the Hardest Spart)

Standings:

1.) Draper 15-6 (1-5 upset)

1.) Hoying 15-6 (1-5 upset)

3.) Schweinfurth 14-7 (1-5 upset)

Well, for a good month (actually bad month) it looked like we weren't going to get any Buckeye football at all this fall. Be thankful for every game we get this season (here's to another five).

Brigham Young Cougars @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Draper: A battle of 2 undefeated teams that have beaten....no one.  The Little Sisters of the Poor would be a powerhouse matchup on these schedules.  But, to be fair, kudos to these teams stepping out and scheduling an extra game of consequence.  Zach WIlson has been fantastic this year, but will the Chanticleers make things more difficult? Probably, but I don't know if it will matter.  The interesting dynamic is that BYU feels slighted, while CCU feels empowered with the rankings.  I think the Cougars know that they have little to no chance at the playoff so will this motivate a strong performance.  The Heisman invite is on Wilson's mind and he needs to step up in this situation to even be considered.  Cougars fight for their QB and another undefeated bites the dust.  BYU: 40 -- Coast: 31
Hoying: Cincinnati continues to get a lot of love and respect from everybody despite beating nobody of note this year, while one of the teams featured on College Gameday this week has actually done some real work. Coastal Carolina has dealt the only loss to Louisiana, the same Louisiana who opened the season blowing out Big 12-leading Iowa State. BYU doesn't have any fun chain wins like that but they've been obliterating their competition, including dusting the annual class of the Mountain West, Boise State. And both teams are getting it done with excellent defense . The winner of this game still won't have the edge over the Bearcats, but they could stick a lovely feather in their helmet and strut a little swaggier all the same. And the winner will be...BYU. Juggernaut QB Zach Wilson is too much for the Chanticleers to stop. BYU: 38--Coast: 20

Schweinfurth: I don't think we would realistically be talking about Coastal Carolina if this were a normal year, but hey, 2020. While BYU has to travel cross country on short notice, I really don't think it will matter. This is a step up in competition for CCU and it should be a pretty good wake up call was well. BYU: 45--Coast: 28

Indiana Hoosiers @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Oh Windiana...my kingdom for a Penix.  The Hoosiers had a truly special season rolling--n offense with life, a ball-hawking defense, a coach that may not be there next year (movin' on up).  The loss of Michael Penix is devastating.  Injuries are the worst.  Wisconsin looked worse than pedestrian against Northwestern, but what are they going to do when there's nothing of note to play for? One would think they'd make the best of the few games they have, but this is truly a team about which we know nothing.  Wins over Illinois and Michigan (who cares) and a loss vs. a mediocre Northwestern just leaves more questions than answers.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised with anything in this game. I want the Hoosiers to keep the dream of 9Windiana alive, but I have a feeling the loss of their field general will prove too much.  This game may be borderline unwatchable (which is sad as IU was super fun--when they weren't bombing all day over your team).  IU: 20 -- Wisc: 21
Hoying: Welcome back, Wisconsin, we missed you. The last time the Badgers had to take a breather, they returned with a vengeance as completely demolished their opponent. Of course, that opponent was the Michigan Wolverines, so the bar is set a little higher this time. Wisconsin had a bit of a puzzling performance in their last outing, giving away 5 turnovers to an opportunistic Northwestern defense, taking themselves out of Big Ten West contention before the dreaded minimum games rule finished the job. We've seen first hand that Indiana's defense is just as capable as Northwestern's at magnifying opposing offenses' mistakes, but something seemed off about the Hoosiers in their last outing as well. Yes, Penix got hurt halfway through and they had to pivot to Jack Tuttle, but he was having a horrible day before he left, just 6 for 19 for 84 yards after carving up the Silver Matadors for 491 yards the week before. At least they got the run game going, but good luck repeating that feat against the Badgers, fresh off giving up 24 yards to Northwestern on 23 carries. Turnovers could make the difference on this one, but I think Paul Chryst smells a classic Wisconsin win here: clamp down on D and don't take too many chances. The Badgers don't have a Montee Ball or a Jonathan Taylor or a Melvin Gordon to lean on this year, but they should be able to do just enough to eke out an ugly win. IU: 14--UW: 17

Schweinfurth: From what I have seen, Indiana's defense is legit. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers are a Penix ACL away from being a legit top 10 team. Kevin Wilson's defense just blitzes from everywhere and it a joy to watch (when it's not against the Buckeyes). I'm not sure Grahm Mertz has seen a defense quite like the way the Hoosiers are going to attack. Wisconsin just seems fairly mediocre to me this year outside of Mertz. I think the Badgers will get forced into some turnovers, but the lack of Penix is really the bigger issue. This is close, so I'll take the team with a healthy QB. IU: 17--UW: 21

Texas A&M Aggies @ Auburn Tigers

Draper: I. Just. Don't. Care.  Oooooooooo Texas A&M is coming for you. They beat Florida at home with far more fans than was ok and were wholly unimpressive against bad SEC competition (yes, that does exist).  Oh yeah, there's that little matter of getting their doors blown off by Bama.  Now what about Auburn? If I'm poo-pooing the Aggies, surely they are the ones I support. Well, speaking of 'meh'... The SEC is Bama (huge gap) Florida, A&M, Georgia, (small gap), EVERYONE ELSE, Vandy. I don't know if Jordan Hare can make the difference, but My initial guess is no.  Aggies continue to win unimpressively and the national media will swoon over another blah win.  TAMU: 28--Aub: 20 
Hoying: Ahhhh..another meaningless game. With the SEC West already wrapped up for the Crimson Tide, there's little to do now but settle the pecking order for the also-rans. Yes, the Aggies could still sneak their way into the Playoff, but they would need a great deal of help (even a great deal more than a 5-0 or 6-0 Ohio State). As for the play of the team itself, people have been raving about A&M for a while now and I gotta say, I just don't see it. Beating Florida is a big deal, but so is getting waxed by Alabama. QB Kellen Mond had an awful day last week against an LSU defense that's been falling all over itself to give up points in bunches to anyone that'll ask (shield your eyes from the Alabama game this week). Auburn is also a big bag of "meh" who didn't have a pulse against Alabama either, but we've seen this movie before. I commend Texas A&M for getting all the way to December this year before the wheels fell off, but there's a hard cap on this program's success until I see definitive proof otherwise. Bo Nix isn't TJ Finley. He's going to give the Aggies some problems this week. TAMU: 24--Aub: 27

Schweinfurth: I want to see the Aggies get upset. There is no way they are the 5th best team in the country. However, they are better than Auburn. I'll be rooting hard for the upset, but the Aggies win. TAMU: 27--Aub: 21

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans (please)

Draper: Will the Bucks return (please say yes) with a vengeance or a sigh? This will test the mental fortitude of the team.  If they really want the 'Ship and believe in this team, hell hath no fury.... I believe they want this and will come out guns blazin.  Due to the lack of significant practice, I expect some hiccups in the game play on both sides, but I watched a decent amount of MSU/NW and boy was I not impressed.  Rocky Lombardi is going to give 5-10 plays a game that are quality, and a lot of blah.  The Spartan defense was nothing that scared me.  I'd say that Fields' Heisman campaign is all but dead with the missed games and the putrid IU showing (primarily the ugly ugly INTs), but he can come out and remind the country that he is one of the best AROUND and should continue to be talked about in the top 2 NFL draft picks.  I expect the passing game to get back on track as MSU corners are nothing like IU's corners (never thought I'd type that).  Olave and Wilson have 100 yard performances, Teague and Sermon combine for 175 on the ground and the Bucks remind the country that they do, indeed, belong in the conversation.  OSU: 52 MSU: 24
Hoying: I miss the days when the most interesting aspect of Buckeye games were, you know, the games themselves. We could make a few jokes about how awful Michigan State has looked this year (losing to Rutgers? a 24 point shutout loss to Indiana? losing by 42 to Iowa?) while recalling some awful memories of ghosts of mediocre Spartan past ending magical Ohio State seasons (1972, 1974, 1998). Now it's just waiting on pins and needles, refreshing Eleven Warriors like mad on Friday night as we wait to see what the future holds for the Buckeyes Big Ten and Playoff championship hopes. I don't have much substantively to say about this game. MSU beat an overrated Northwestern team because they were able to flummox Ramsey, and I don't see Fields laying another egg, especially against a team this bad. Rocky Lombardi does not have 400 yards in him no matter what Hooker and Williamson are doing back there. I would just really like this game to be played. I would like to see my favorite players have another chance to shine, and to know that what they've worked so hard for and sacrificed so much for in this hellscape of a year won't be stolen from them without a single defensive breakdown or boneheaded turnover. OSU: 52--MSU: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't even know where to start because we have no idea who is out for the Bucks. From listening to Ryan Day, it sounds like quite a few guys on defense are out. Ohio State is more talented and all around better coached. Look, these are not the Spartans of the last few years, and the Buckeyes will just be happy to play this game. There shouldn't be a second half let down this time. OSU: 49--MSU: 21

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Iowa State

Hoying: Illinois over Iowa
Schweinfurth: TCU over OK St.

Undefeated, On the Outside, and Looking In?

Well, it happened again. Only this time the disease struck the Buckeyes instead of their opponent. And now, with two cancellations nerfing the Buckeyes' win column, they find themselves on the precipice of being locked out of the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. That's bad, but not as bad as it could have been. Unlike 2015 and 2016, the Buckeyes aren't looking up at another team atop the Big Ten East standings, as I feared last week. And they aren't quite blocked from the Big Ten Championship hunt until another cancellation hits. But, as we seem to do every year here at Let's Go Bucks (except last year, when the great debate was whether Ohio State would be the #1 seed or the #2 seed), let's run the Playoff scenarios and scout the threats to a fourth Playoff berth. In short, the threats are real, but not likely to be devastating.

BUCKEYE RESUMES

First, let's consider the Buckeyes' possible resumes at season's end. Four of them are pretty simple:

1. Buckeyes play all scheduled games and win out. Buckeyes are in the Playoff as no worse than the #3 seed.
2. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, lose to MSU or UM, but win the Big Ten Championship. Buckeyes are very likely in the Playoff as the #3 or #4 seed.
3. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, beat MSU and UM but lose to Northwestern.  Buckeyes are likely out of the Playoff (behind SEC champ, ACC champ, and Northwestern at least).
4. Buckeyes miss another game and take a loss. Buckeyes. Are. Out.

Now for the chaos scenario: what if Ohio State misses the Michigan State or Michigan game but beats the other, and wins their everybody-gets-a-trophy-weekend game (likely against Wisconsin)? The Buckeyes would still be undefeated, with a win over Indiana that's still likely to great at season's end and a nice win over whoever's #2 in the Big Ten West (and a bunch of wins over total crap). If they aren't in the Playoff, we have to find four teams with better resumes. Can we find four such teams?

PLAYOFF THREATS

Slam Dunks

All of these teams would no doubt get in ahead of 6-0 Ohio State:

1. Undefeated Alabama
2. Undefeated Notre Dame
3. Undefeated Northwestern (yes, slam dunk)

The good news is that all of the above occurring would be pretty good news for the Buckeyes. We'll go into greater detail why below, but the short answer is that it clears out any other major threats to steal a playoff spot from Ohio State.

Wild Card

1. Undefeated Pac-12 champion

Oregon State gave Ohio State a terrific gift by knocking off Oregon last night. The Ducks checked in as the top ranked Pac-12 team in the Playoff Committee's opening rankings, at a humble #15. But they aren't the only undefeated Pac-12 team left. #18 USC is still lurking at 3-0, while Washington and Colorado are sitting unranked at 2-0 each. The Pac-12's problem is that with USC's game being cancelled, each of these teams can play a maximum of five games going into the Pac-12 championship, meaning they can, at best, match Ohio State's six wins on the season. Winning the Pac-12 championship would give the champion a nice feather in their cap that a 6-0 Ohio State won't have, but the rest of their resume would be a bit thin. I suppose one of USC or Colorado hand the other their only loss, then go on to beat undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. However, the champ is going to have to fight a perception problem. The Pac-12 champ has exactly one win in the Playoff era (to be fair, that's one more than the Big 12 and just one fewer than the Big Ten) and haven't made an appearance since Washington in 2016. The Committee was willing to rank Ohio State #4 and Oregon #15 despite the Buckeyes playing just one more game to that point. I don't really see a Pac-12 team jumping up the rankings and overtaking Ohio State while playing the same number of games.

One Loss Threats

We have never seen an undefeated Power 5 team left out of the Playoff, but we have seen one finish behind two one-loss teams (in 2014, 13-0 Florida State finished behind 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Oregon). What teams could finish with one loss and push Ohio State out of the way this year?

First, they would have to be a conference champion, or at least a conference championship game participant. It doesn't make sense to leave out undefeated Ohio State for missing the Big Ten championship while putting in a one-loss team under similar circumstances.

Second, it has to come from a conference garnering at least a minimum level of respect. That means the SEC, the ACC, and the Big Ten (this is a moot point for the Big 12 as they don't have any one-loss teams left).

Third, a one-loss team from the Big Ten is not going to jump undefeated Ohio State, even if they win a conference championship.  Even if Indiana wins out, they're not going to erase 42-35. Even if Maryland wins out, they can't overcome getting whacked by 40 by Northwestern, even if they won a rematch.  And if Northwestern drops a game, they'll plummet too far in the rankings to catch Ohio State, even if they demolish Indiana in Indianapolis.

So whom does that leave?  The following, many of which are mutually exclusive:

1. Clemson (with conference championship)
2. Alabama (with conference championship)
3. Florida (with conference championship)
4. Texas A&M (with conference championship*)
5. Miami (with conference championship)
6. Notre Dame (with conference championship)
7. Notre Dame (without conference championship)
8. Alabama (without conference championship)

*This would require Alabama to lose to Auburn and LSU, so, no.

The "LOL, No" Category

These teams are not making the Playoff ahead of 6-0 Ohio State. Just, LOL, no.

1. One-loss Miami or Texas A&M staying home on Championship Saturday
2. Cincinnati, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Marshall
3. A one-loss Pac-12 team
4. A one-loss Big Ten team
5. Two-loss Big 12 Champion
6. Any other 2-loss team

Best and Worst Cases

So we've narrowed down the threats to the Buckeyes to the following ten teams in some shape or form:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Northwestern
4. Clemson
5. Florida
6. Texas A&M
7. Miami
8. USC
9. Washington
10. Colorado

Obviously, not all of these teams can simultaneously finish with the requisite number of losses to finish ahead of Ohio State. But what are the worst case scenarios? Let's look conference-by-conference for the best and worst cases to aid or hinder Ohio State's Playoff chase.

ACC

Best case: Notre Dame wins out. The Irish go to the Playoff, but Clemson gets knocked out with a second loss.  Miami finishes without any big wins or conference titles, and thus finishes safely behind Ohio State.

Worst case: Clemson and Notre Dame win out until the ACC Championship, which Clemson wins in a nailbiter. Clemson enters the Playoff after avenging their only loss, which they took in double overtime without their best player.  Notre Dame also enters the Playoff, having essentially the same resume as Clemson minus the win over Miami.

Big Ten

Best case: Northwestern loses, preferably to one-loss Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Indiana's game against Wisconsin is cancelled, saving either team from taking another loss. Ohio State beats Wisconsin on championship weekend (but not in the championship game). Every Big Ten team other than Ohio State finishes with a loss. One-loss Indiana has the conference title but can't overcome their head-to-head loss to Ohio State, which continues to bolster the Buckeyes' playoff resume along with the Buckeyes' win over Wisconsin.

Worst case: Northwestern wins out and wins the Big Ten Championship, completing a 9-0 season with wins over Indiana and Wisconsin. Northwestern goes to the Playoff ranked #3 at the worst, as Ohio State has absolutely no argument to be ranked over the Wildcats.

Pac-12

Best case: each of USC, Washington, and Colorado takes a loss. No Pac-12 team sniffs the Playoff.

Worst case: USC hands Colorado its only loss, then smashes undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 Championship. USC sits on six wins, including two quality-ish wins, and a conference title. Probably not enough to pass the Buckeyes, but enough to make them nervous.

SEC

Best case: Bama by a million, week after week. Texas A&M loses another game just for fun. Alabama goes to the Playoff as the #1 seed, and every other team is safely sidelined.

Worst case: One-loss Florida edges undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida goes to the Playoff with the nation's best win and an acceptable 3-point loss to a top five team, while Alabama joins them after smacking Georgia and Texas A&M and taking an acceptable loss.

All the Worst Cases

If you did the math above, you calculated that I lied a little bit in the worst case scenarios, since I apportioned four Playoff spots among five teams (Clemson, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Florida, and Alabama). OK, in that scenario, Alabama gets left out, but that's not the point. The point is that Ohio State is in very real danger of going undefeated and getting left out of the Playoff, but only if a lot of breaks don't go their way. Basically, the undefeated Buckeyes would need three of the following four things to not happen (in decreasing order of devastation):

1. Northwestern wins out
2. One-loss Clemson beats undefeated Notre Dame
3. One-loss Florida beats undefeated Alabama
4. USC, Washington, or Colorado wins out

These are very specific scenarios (except #4, and I'm not even sure that's a threat to the Buckeyes' chances), although only three weeks remain to turn each of them aside.

So buck up, Buckeye Nation. There are still many paths to the playoff, championship game or no championship game. And as a bonus, you get to root harder than ever against Alabama, Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame, USC over the coming weeks.

Week 13: The Worst Thanksgiving

Standings:

1.) Draper 12-5 (1-4 upset)

2.) Schweinfurth 11-6 (1-4 upset)

2.) Hoying 11-6 (0-5 upset)

Happy holidays to all celebrating Thanksgiving together or alone this week. We're particularly lonely without our favorite turkeys up north for the Buckeyes to pound on this year. But we're always hopeful for an early Christmas present in a couple of weeks.

FRIDAY

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels [shhhhh...you saw nussing last week]

Draper: I just can't get behind this Notre Dame team.  I don't know why, but they don't scare or excite me.  Even after defeating the Big Bad Dabo (without their QB....at home...with many fans spread viruses), I don't believe.  I remember watching that Louisville game which was just gross.  UNC is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  Mack Brown can sprinkle some magic dust and get Sam Howell to play in the stratosphere and potentially make this a shootout, but I'm not seeing the upset here.  ND: 42--UNC: 31
Hoying: Florida State has beaten two teams this year. One was Jacksonville State, who actually led the Noles into the 3rd quarter. The other was North Carolina, a team that threw all over FSU all day but was playing from behind all day after an early punt block and pick six. When the Heels are hot they get points in bunches, but the defense is a bit lacking, as shown in their last outing, a 59-53 shootout with Wake Forest. Notre Dame has a potent attack of its own, led by dual-threat QB Ian Book, and they're not quite as mistake prone as Carolina is. Yeah, they struggled with BC for a hot minute but they looked a lot better than Clemson did. They also looked a lot better than Clemson against...Clemson. I don't see Notre Dame overlooking this game, which means I don't see them losing. ND: 45--UNC: 24

Schweinfurth: I don't believe in Notre Dame, but I really don't believe in this Tar Heel team. The Heels have been letting teams get out to these ridiculous leads and then somehow coming back to win. I can really see the Irish jumping out to a huge lead and not looking back. UNC will score, but there will be no comeback this time. ND: 45--UNC: 21

Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Is Texas back?  Depends on what they are ‘back’ to...2nd - 4th place in the Big Twelve seems to be ‘back lately.  Iowa State has put together a nice little run in the conference that no one believes has a chance to make the playoff (no one remembers the Pac 12 exists so they don’t count).  Sam Meh-linger has shown some sparks of very goodness, but it’s too sporadic.  Oh, and the defense...  Tom Herman is about ready to go quietly into that goodnight.  Send in the CLONES! ISU: 38–UT: 34
Hoying: ISU coach Matt Campbell's name continues to be whispered in wish lists for replacement coaches (including our neighbors up north) while Texas coach Tom Herman is mentioned in the same circles with some measure of trepidation. Why? Because Iowa State is a total of one game worse than Texas over Tom Herman's tenure at Texas, despite the fact that, you know, Iowa State is Iowa State and Texas is Texas. This season, Iowa State shook off a blowout loss to Louisiana to surge to sole possession of the Big 12 lead, and with the big bad Sooners already out of the way, a win over Texas would just about lock them into their first Big 12 championship appearance. The Horns are a late TCU touchdown and a weird Red River overtime away from being undefeated but they haven't exactly been impressive in their wins either. They're a bit too reliant on their pass game. Iowa State also boasts a formidable pass attack, and Texas's pass D has been abysmal. I know it's something of a cliché at this point for Texas Tom to overperform in a big game like this before soiling the bed against the next goober of the week, but I think his magic is starting to run out.  ISU: 34--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: Matt Campbell has the Cyclones leading a messy Big 12. ISU plays hard and is a hard out for any team right now. Texas may be playing for Tom Herman's job. A three loss season will not sit will in Austin, especially after Ohio State just poached two of the top recruits. Yes, the Longhorns have righted the ship a bit since that rough start, but I just can't trust that Ehlinger won't turn the ball over. ISU: 35--UT: 31

SATURDAY

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Why? Why would we do this to ourselves? Why would we do this to you? Because it’s just so....fun...to watch these teams struggle and fail.  Michigan may have found their QB for the rest of the year (future is a bit too strong) after taking down their rivals in scarlet last week in 3OT, but Penn State is an abject mess.  Everyone is jumping ship.  We thought UM was a train wreck? Well, PSU is the Titanic.  The Wolverines string together a second win to build a little confidence before the truth hits in 2 weeks.  McNamera will look good and give the announcers some fuel concerning The Game....but whatevs.  PSU: 17—UM: 27
Hoying: I believed in you, Buttgers, and you tore my heart out. Did the Wolverines finally turn a corner in triple-OT in Piscataway, under the steady arm of Cade McNamera? I'm not convinced. Again, Buttgers. I think Michigan is one of those teams that is exactly as good as their record. Penn State, on the other hand, has found a few creative ways to give games away this season. Yes, they're still missing Journey Brown and Micah Parsons, and yes, they just lost Pat Freiermuth as well, but Michigan is missing something like their entire starting defense (the competent ones anyway, yeah, you heard me, Dax Hill). The Wolverine D can't really stop anybody right now, Buttgers included, and while Penn State remains a turnover machine, I think they'll score fast enough on Michigan that turnovers won't keep them out of the game. This should be another classic for all you sickos out there who love to see Michigan in nailbiters against bad teams  (*raises hand*), but the Nittany Lions will finally get their first win and leave the Wolverine faithful to wonder what their worst loss of the season is: giving Sparty their only win, or doing the same for PSU? PSU: 31--UM: 27

Schweinfurth: It's your B1G laughing stock game of the week! Penn State took that haymaker from Indiana and just hasn't recovered. I mean 0-5? They are the first team in the history of the AP poll to start in the top ten and then go 0-5. That is terrible and makes you question Franklin's culture. One loss shouldn't cause a season to go straight in the tank. The Fighting Harboogers, on the other hand, actually found something that works with McNamera and Haskins. The only question is if Harbaugh is smart enough to keep riding them. I think Penn State is broken beyond repair this year. PSU: 14--UM: 28

Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Bama enters the Iron Bowl without their general, but no one will notice.  Something tells me that Sagan has developed a chip to implant into the players so he can coach them remotely and 24/7.  Mac Jones and Co. are a force of nature that lead the pack of National Title favorites (of course, the list of potential winners is about 4...).  What do we (I?) know about Auburn this year? Nothing really.  Roll Dang Tide.  Auburn: 10–Bama: 38
Hoying: Did you know that mighty Alabama, unquestionably the premier team of the New '10s, went a meager 6-4 against Auburn over the last decade? Amazingly, Nick Saban's Tide are a rather pedestrian 8-5 against the Tigers, including a paltry 3-5 when Auburn is ranked. Alabama has been ranked #1 five times going into this game during Saban's tenure, and has 3 wins to show for it. Should we expect another miracle this week? Well, Saban is out with the virus for real this time, so anything's possible.  The Tide have followed up last year's disappointing (11-win, top ten) season with another "Bama by a million" campaign including a pantsing of Texas A&M and a comfortable win over Georgia. QB Mac Jones looks as good as anybody north of the Florida-Georgia border, and RB Najee Harris is a devastating weapon in his own right. Auburn...squeaked out some wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss...I got nothing. I saw the 2013 and 2019 upsets coming, but this time, the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it." Bama by a million. Auburn: 13--Bama: 45

Schweinfurth: No Saban, no problem. Seriously, Auburn is going to get crushed. Bo Nix is going to turn the ball over and Alabama is going to feast. Auburn: 17--Bama: 42

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: Please, please, please don’t drop this game too.  The Buckeyes need these games just to stay on track.  Illinois got a nice little win vs. Nebraska last week, but is there anyone that expects lightning to strike twice.  Indiana may have found the chink in the Buckeye armor (blitz on defense — if you can cover— and play 500 on offense—if you have a good QB), but lucky for the Buckeyes, Illinois has none of those things.  This is a get right game for Fields.  We saw some terrible decision making and execution last week, but it seemed like it was more of a lock on hero-ball, Heisman moments.  Day and Co. will settle the young man down and he, Olive, and Wilson will put on a clinic.  Teague and Sermon will lay the wood when needed, but barring poor weather, I think the coaches will try to reestablish Fields’ confidence.  The defense needs to shore up the secondary (obviously) but I think Coach Coombs will analyze the situation and simplify the scheme.  Even if the Illini can’t attack like Indiana, they need to prepare for the future and fix the communication and execution (Hooker...) issues.  The biggest worry I have going into this one is the COVID scare.  OSU: 58 — Ill: 20
Hoying: Hurrah, the Buckeyes defeated their only regular season top ten opponent and are now in full-on season cleanup mode. Reminds me of a time when a Buckeye team made a run at the title but were upset in the postseason, then followed it up with another impressive string of wins to start the season. Then they played a 3-loss Illinois team, who was quarterbacked by a guy named Isaiah Williams...........oh no...nooooooo...OK, relax. This Illinois team is not exactly 2007's Rose Bowl (lol) squad. They've been using the old quarterback-by-committee offense, and it looks like this week's spin of the wheel points back to former Michigan QB Brandon Peters. You may scoff, but Peters posted a 167.2 QBR against the Buckeyes in The Game Version 2018 in cleanup duty for Shea Patterson while setting up a Michigan TD (1 for 1 for 8 yards). The Illini don't have a lot of weapons and they haven't really scored many points until the floodgates opened against Nebraska last week. The good news is that Illinois did most of its damage on the ground, which Ohio State is pretty good at not allowing to happen. Swirling Champaign winds cut both ways, and even if the Ohio State passing game is a bit nerfed (hopefully not by throwing lobs into the middle of the field while falling down) the same breezes should prevent another fiasco in the Buckeye secondary. The good news is that the Silver Bullets won't see another team that can really put them to the test until the Playoff. The bad news is that we probably won't be able to tell until January what the results of that test will be (unless Michigan throws all over us, then it's time to start praying). OSU: 45--Ill: 20
Schweinfurth: Fix the defense! Look, last week was bad and they took their foot off the gas against Rutgers. Everyone take a breath. They are working on it. There were several miscommunications and  guys not knowing the play call (zone or man). This is a young secondary, and I think Indiana was a wake up call. Look for new rotations in the secondary (more Josh Proctor). On the offensive side of the ball, Fields just needs to settle down and stop forcing the ball. He was clearly trying to win the game with one thrown on every possession last week. The big plays will be there, but every play doesn't have to be a forced ball. This game should be a reset and hopefully not a wind tunnel as we tend to see in Champaign. Bucks bring the Illibuck back to Columbus. OSU: 45--Ill: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Iowa

Hoying: Oregon State over Oregon
Schweinfurth: LSU over TAMU