Standings:
1.) Draper 23-6 (0-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 22-7 (2-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 20-9 (0-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 22-7 (2-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 20-9 (0-6 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 19-10 (1-5 upset)
By the time the clock strikes midnight on Saturday night, the college football landscape will look far different than it does today. Title hopes will be ruined. Pecking orders will be pecked out. And the Buckeyes have the luxury of sitting back and watching the top teams around them take the L's that will send them tumbling from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: This is truly an interesting matchup as the Wolverines have passed the gauntlet of garbage (ok...Maryland is decent) with no true problem but have shown chinks in the armor at times. My assessment of the team is that Corum is a stud, McCarthy has some potential but is still raw, and the defense is a shell of last year's squad. Penn State might have (probably has?) the biggest win by shellacking Auburn in Jordan-Hare. Now, Auburn is nothing to get excited about (I think Maryland might be better), but winning on the road in that fashion is impressive. Sean Clifford enters his 30th year as the PSU QB with a boatload of meh and a few eye-popping stellar games. Can he pull one together in Ann Arbor this weekend? Probably not....but that doesn't mean the Lions are cooked. I expect a boring rushing battle between the two with Corum vs. Patterson looking for the breakaway score. As stated above, I think Corum is solid, so I'll go with the maize and blue at home. PSU: 20--UM: 24
Hoying: Modern football is largely a quarterback-driven game. And, for what feels like the millionth year in a row, Penn State has a hyped-up mediocre player behind center. Sure, Michigan QB J J McCarthy isn't exactly a proven product either, but he seems to have shown a high ceiling against the garbage he's faced so far, and he has the much, much better rushing attack backing him up. There's been a lot of buzz about Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton, but outside of a couple of explosive runs, he hasn't held a candle to Corum. Add in the home factor and the James Franklin play-calling factor, and it appears that the paper tiger undefeated team in the Big Ten this year is...the Nittany Lions. Blowing out Auburn isn't enough to convince me otherwise (but does it qualify them to be ranked #1?). Michigan remains on pace for a 2006-esque showdown in Columbus, against a 2006-esque runaway Heisman trophy winner [note: offer expires after regular season]. PSU: 17--UM: 27
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of either of these teams. Neither team has a beaten up on overmatched teams so far and the strengths of schedule are just awful. Penn State still has Kyle Clifford at QB, and that may be just enough to swing this to Michigan's favor. PSU: 21--UM: 24
Seeberg: I just...I just don't know what to make of these teams this year. They're undefeated. Yay? Penn State escaped a conference opener against Purdue (who, granted, plays everybody close at least) and stomped a listless, lame-duck-coached Auburn team. UM beat...(buffering). I fear these might just be two more fake-good teams that have been fortunate to remain unscathed due to lousier opponents. Astonishingly, the primary difference may be Harbaugh's QB. I think the maize and blue are just a little bit more diverse offensively. If it were a white out I would likely lean the other way, but Clifford is good for at least 1-2 disastrous plays and that should be enough to seal it for the home team. UM late. PSU: 20--UM: 27
Hoying: Modern football is largely a quarterback-driven game. And, for what feels like the millionth year in a row, Penn State has a hyped-up mediocre player behind center. Sure, Michigan QB J J McCarthy isn't exactly a proven product either, but he seems to have shown a high ceiling against the garbage he's faced so far, and he has the much, much better rushing attack backing him up. There's been a lot of buzz about Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton, but outside of a couple of explosive runs, he hasn't held a candle to Corum. Add in the home factor and the James Franklin play-calling factor, and it appears that the paper tiger undefeated team in the Big Ten this year is...the Nittany Lions. Blowing out Auburn isn't enough to convince me otherwise (but does it qualify them to be ranked #1?). Michigan remains on pace for a 2006-esque showdown in Columbus, against a 2006-esque runaway Heisman trophy winner [note: offer expires after regular season]. PSU: 17--UM: 27
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of either of these teams. Neither team has a beaten up on overmatched teams so far and the strengths of schedule are just awful. Penn State still has Kyle Clifford at QB, and that may be just enough to swing this to Michigan's favor. PSU: 21--UM: 24
Seeberg: I just...I just don't know what to make of these teams this year. They're undefeated. Yay? Penn State escaped a conference opener against Purdue (who, granted, plays everybody close at least) and stomped a listless, lame-duck-coached Auburn team. UM beat...(buffering). I fear these might just be two more fake-good teams that have been fortunate to remain unscathed due to lousier opponents. Astonishingly, the primary difference may be Harbaugh's QB. I think the maize and blue are just a little bit more diverse offensively. If it were a white out I would likely lean the other way, but Clifford is good for at least 1-2 disastrous plays and that should be enough to seal it for the home team. UM late. PSU: 20--UM: 27
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: Will Bryce play? That seems to be all anyone wants to talk about. Milroe is a nice fill in and will be good down the road, but he was a little shaky last week vs. the Aggies. Tennessee has been lighting the scoreboard up with everyone's Heisman runner-up favorite, Hendon Hooker. When I look back at Bama losses in the regular season, they don't seem to lose these marquee matchups very often. Saban's defense isn't the juggernaut from the past couple (ten?) years, but it's still full of elite athletes that I don't think the Vols have seen this year. If I'm the Tide, I come out with the ground and pound to physically beat up Tennessee (both offensively and defensively) and impose my will while taking the air out of the ball. Rocky Top hasn't been this fired up for a game since Kiffin came to town last year, but they truly truly believe this is the one. I just can't buy it. The Evil Empire doesn't allow failure. Bama: 30--UT: 24
Hoying: Speaking of quarterback-driven games, how is Bryce Young doing these days? Because if he's not at 100%, the Tide might be in trouble for the first time since...ok, well, the national championship wasn't that long ago but you have to go back a lot farther to find another game with Alabama facing such adversity. The Volunteer attack has been a buzzsaw so far this season, with QB Hendon Hooker following up last year's breakout season with this year's best QB-INT ratio (10:0) and leading the nation's #2 scoring attack (behind a certain team on a bye this week). And they're going to need it, because even if Bryce Young doesn't play, the Vols aren't stopping anybody this year, particularly through the air. True, the Tide needed long runs, not receptions, from RB Jahmyr Gibbs to stave off a furious Razorback comeback when Young went down, but I wouldn't trust the Tennessee secondary against Jalen Milroe, even if the complement of WRs isn't quite what we've come to expect from Alabama over the last few seasons. This game reminds me a lot of the 2020 Ole Miss - Alabama game, when Lane Kiffin threw everything in the bag at the Tide in a mad shootout. Tennessee's defense isn't quite as bad as the Rebels' was on that day, and their offense is a bit better. Also, if you remember (how could you forget), that 2020 Alabama team was one of the greatest in modern memory, while this year's has been playing with fire for too long. Their inconsistency is going to catch up with them at some point this season, and there's no time like the present, especially for the long-suffering orange and white faithful. Saban suffers his first loss at the hands of his lesser rival and the Vols set up an even bigger matchup against Georgia on November 5. Bama: 38--Tenn: 41
Schweinfurth: Be wary of the years where everyone says Bama is gettable. For some reason, Saban has those teams turn into death machines in games like this. Will Bryce Young play? This game is the next big leap for Tennessee. Hendon Hooker is the real deal, but I'm not sure the depth is there for the Vols quite yet. Bama wins, but it's close. Bama: 34--Tenn: 31
Seeberg: The experts can break this game down all they want, but it will likely rest on the shoulder(s) of Bryce Young. Does he play? Is he 80%? 95%? Lord and Nick Saban only know. To be fair, he isn't suiting up on defense which might be where the Tide struggle. A W in this game vaults Hendon Hooker into legitimate, Stroudian territory when it comes to the Heisman conversation. Will Anderson might get to him, but he can't cover the receivers too. I expect a fun one in Neyland, and a "well Bryce Young didn't play/wasn't 100%" narrative to start immediately thereafter to get Bama back in the CFP down the road. Bama: 31--Tenn: 37
Hoying: Speaking of quarterback-driven games, how is Bryce Young doing these days? Because if he's not at 100%, the Tide might be in trouble for the first time since...ok, well, the national championship wasn't that long ago but you have to go back a lot farther to find another game with Alabama facing such adversity. The Volunteer attack has been a buzzsaw so far this season, with QB Hendon Hooker following up last year's breakout season with this year's best QB-INT ratio (10:0) and leading the nation's #2 scoring attack (behind a certain team on a bye this week). And they're going to need it, because even if Bryce Young doesn't play, the Vols aren't stopping anybody this year, particularly through the air. True, the Tide needed long runs, not receptions, from RB Jahmyr Gibbs to stave off a furious Razorback comeback when Young went down, but I wouldn't trust the Tennessee secondary against Jalen Milroe, even if the complement of WRs isn't quite what we've come to expect from Alabama over the last few seasons. This game reminds me a lot of the 2020 Ole Miss - Alabama game, when Lane Kiffin threw everything in the bag at the Tide in a mad shootout. Tennessee's defense isn't quite as bad as the Rebels' was on that day, and their offense is a bit better. Also, if you remember (how could you forget), that 2020 Alabama team was one of the greatest in modern memory, while this year's has been playing with fire for too long. Their inconsistency is going to catch up with them at some point this season, and there's no time like the present, especially for the long-suffering orange and white faithful. Saban suffers his first loss at the hands of his lesser rival and the Vols set up an even bigger matchup against Georgia on November 5. Bama: 38--Tenn: 41
Schweinfurth: Be wary of the years where everyone says Bama is gettable. For some reason, Saban has those teams turn into death machines in games like this. Will Bryce Young play? This game is the next big leap for Tennessee. Hendon Hooker is the real deal, but I'm not sure the depth is there for the Vols quite yet. Bama wins, but it's close. Bama: 34--Tenn: 31
Seeberg: The experts can break this game down all they want, but it will likely rest on the shoulder(s) of Bryce Young. Does he play? Is he 80%? 95%? Lord and Nick Saban only know. To be fair, he isn't suiting up on defense which might be where the Tide struggle. A W in this game vaults Hendon Hooker into legitimate, Stroudian territory when it comes to the Heisman conversation. Will Anderson might get to him, but he can't cover the receivers too. I expect a fun one in Neyland, and a "well Bryce Young didn't play/wasn't 100%" narrative to start immediately thereafter to get Bama back in the CFP down the road. Bama: 31--Tenn: 37
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Draper: TCU is riding high after their big GameDay win over <checks notes> Kansas? These may not be your parents Jayhawks, but I was surprised TCU didn't impose their will a bit more. I think the reason was...they can't. Max Duggan is orchestrating a nice offense against chump teams like Oklahoma, but the Pokes pass rush should be able to get home. Sanders remains (in my humble opinion) the best QB on the field in this game (with all due respect to the mullet). While the Frogs expect to get out fast, I think OSU plays a little reverse card and gets a quick stop or two followed by TDs to quiet the crowd. It all comes down to whether Duggan has time to survey and/or run, and I don't think he gets it. OkSt: 31--TCU: 20
Hoying: Poor Oklahoma State. They've done so well under Mike Gundy, and yet they never seem to be able to climb the summit as kings of the Big 12. Yeah, 2011 was nice (except for getting screwed out of the BCS Championship), but that was over a decade ago, and last year's loss by inches to the Baylor Bears has made the drought even more excruciating. And the road is not getting any easier this year, as the conference slate is a real murderer's row (except Oklahoma?), but the Pokes have bought themselves a bit of breathing room as one of only three teams left undefeated in conference play. This weekend provides a great opportunity to knock off one of the others. TCU, fresh off their turn as villain of the week after knocking off America's darling Kansas Jayhawks, feature one of the top offenses in the country, with great balance on the ground and through the air. And that's bad news for Oklahoma State, as Jim Knowles isn't around to regroup the defense after a somewhat rocky start to the season. Both teams should have success through the air, but TCU's better running game and slightly better defense should get the job done at home and solidify purple power atop the Big 12 standings. OkSt: 31--TCU: 38
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State can't defend the pass. Yea, they can score, but they will need a stop to have a chance in this shoot out. TCU should win going away. OkSt.: 35--TCU: 45
Seeberg: Don't look now kids, but the bellcow program in the Sooner state isn't the Sooners. Unfortunately, a better team in TCU has a date with the Cowboys this Saturday. Last season I would've trusted a Jim Knowles-led D to outlast a solid TCU squad, but the remnants of his defense just aren't cutting it this year, allowing a whopping 44 points to Central Michigan in the opener and 31 to Texas Tech just last week. TCU is too multiple on offense to not take advantage of the Cowboys' shortcomings on that side of the ball and should pull away late. OkSt: 24--TCU: 41
Hoying: Poor Oklahoma State. They've done so well under Mike Gundy, and yet they never seem to be able to climb the summit as kings of the Big 12. Yeah, 2011 was nice (except for getting screwed out of the BCS Championship), but that was over a decade ago, and last year's loss by inches to the Baylor Bears has made the drought even more excruciating. And the road is not getting any easier this year, as the conference slate is a real murderer's row (except Oklahoma?), but the Pokes have bought themselves a bit of breathing room as one of only three teams left undefeated in conference play. This weekend provides a great opportunity to knock off one of the others. TCU, fresh off their turn as villain of the week after knocking off America's darling Kansas Jayhawks, feature one of the top offenses in the country, with great balance on the ground and through the air. And that's bad news for Oklahoma State, as Jim Knowles isn't around to regroup the defense after a somewhat rocky start to the season. Both teams should have success through the air, but TCU's better running game and slightly better defense should get the job done at home and solidify purple power atop the Big 12 standings. OkSt: 31--TCU: 38
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State can't defend the pass. Yea, they can score, but they will need a stop to have a chance in this shoot out. TCU should win going away. OkSt.: 35--TCU: 45
Seeberg: Don't look now kids, but the bellcow program in the Sooner state isn't the Sooners. Unfortunately, a better team in TCU has a date with the Cowboys this Saturday. Last season I would've trusted a Jim Knowles-led D to outlast a solid TCU squad, but the remnants of his defense just aren't cutting it this year, allowing a whopping 44 points to Central Michigan in the opener and 31 to Texas Tech just last week. TCU is too multiple on offense to not take advantage of the Cowboys' shortcomings on that side of the ball and should pull away late. OkSt: 24--TCU: 41
North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Syracuse Orange
Draper: Everyone keeps asking if Syracuse is good; however, the better question may be, are either of these teams good? NC State has literally been gifted two wins from the Noles and the Pirates, but they 'find a way' (except against Clemson and that rousing 'bus around the stadium....whee). Syracuse has beaten....no one. I guess the last second win against Purdue was nice, but I'm not breaking the bank on Wagner. Experience against a decent team matters here. Go Pack. NCSU: 30--Syr: 17
Hoying: Is Syracuse actually good? Well, they're 5-0, but it's taken a miraculous late comeback against Purdue and 5 field goals against Virginia, a team everyone else with a pulse has been blowing out, to get them here. NC State is a bit more of a known quantity: they aren't going to score but you're aren't going to, either. Clemson was able to make a bit of noise against the Wolfpack, aided by a couple of costly NC State turnovers, but everyone else has been pretty bottled up. Yes, it took a boneheaded late play to sneak by Florida State, but I'm not sure the Orange are even up to the Seminoles' level this season. I'm still not a big believer in NC State, but I think they'll do well enough to knock another unbeaten off their perch at the season's halfway point. NCSU: 20--Syr: 17
Schweinfurth: NC State should bounce back here. The Wolfpack seem to be the better team and I don't know what to think of the Orange. NCSU: 35--Syr: 21
Seeberg: Another matchup of "are they really good?" squads. The Wolfpack went down in a heap to a resurgent, probably-actually-good Clemson team and the Orange have played Purdue...and that's it. And they needed a LOT of fortune to escape that contest on the positive side of the scoreboard. NC State knocks another from the ranks of the unbeaten. NCSU: 31--Syr: 23
Hoying: Is Syracuse actually good? Well, they're 5-0, but it's taken a miraculous late comeback against Purdue and 5 field goals against Virginia, a team everyone else with a pulse has been blowing out, to get them here. NC State is a bit more of a known quantity: they aren't going to score but you're aren't going to, either. Clemson was able to make a bit of noise against the Wolfpack, aided by a couple of costly NC State turnovers, but everyone else has been pretty bottled up. Yes, it took a boneheaded late play to sneak by Florida State, but I'm not sure the Orange are even up to the Seminoles' level this season. I'm still not a big believer in NC State, but I think they'll do well enough to knock another unbeaten off their perch at the season's halfway point. NCSU: 20--Syr: 17
Schweinfurth: NC State should bounce back here. The Wolfpack seem to be the better team and I don't know what to think of the Orange. NCSU: 35--Syr: 21
Seeberg: Another matchup of "are they really good?" squads. The Wolfpack went down in a heap to a resurgent, probably-actually-good Clemson team and the Orange have played Purdue...and that's it. And they needed a LOT of fortune to escape that contest on the positive side of the scoreboard. NC State knocks another from the ranks of the unbeaten. NCSU: 31--Syr: 23
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: I know we all had this one circled as the powerhouse B1G West showdown. Honestly, after watching the 'thrilling' Illinois/Iowa game last week, I don't know how I could pick Illinois to beat a high school squad. Yeah, they keep winning these defensive battles, but it's not something I really want to subject myself to. Bert can Bert, but Minnesota has looked pretty good outside of last week. Ibrahim and Morgan should be enough to outscore the Illini in a shootout. Minn: 20--Ill: 9
Hoying: Finally, the one you've been waiting for. The Big Ten West has been quite a mess this season. You'd be tempted to call them a bit of a punching bag, except they have the exact same conference record as the East thanks to bottom-dwellers Rutgers and Michigan State. Another one of those awful East teams is Indiana, who has perhaps the most inexplicable win of the Big Ten season so far, knocking off Illinois back in September thanks to 3 Illini fumbles and some costly fourth down misses. Of course, Minnesota's record isn't spotless either as their last outing was a pretty solid humbling by Purdue. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but this one may ride on the health of a starting QB. It's not like Tommy DeVito has been lighting the world on fire for Illinois, but you really don't want to riding into battle with Art Sitkowski at the head of your troops. Yeah, Tanner Morgan wasn't anything special against Purdue either, but he's been much better than anyone Illinois has trotted out over the season as a whole. That should be enough to overcome a resurgent Illinois defense. Bert takes his first loss to the Golden Gophers. Minn: 24--Ill: 16
Schweinfurth: Minnesota is a pretty good team when Mo Ibrahim plays. We saw it last year. Illinois is getting love because they held Iowa under 7 points (and who hasn't at this point). Goldy should win this and get back on track to represent the B1G West. Minn: 21--Ill: 12
Seeberg: Ah yes, the B1G West matchup we all had circled at the start of the season. To be fair, the Gophers have been very good the last 2 seasons...when Mo Ibrahim plays. This is the poor man's version of Bama/UT where knowing if the best player plays and how healthy he is means darn near everything. The Illini, meanwhile, out Iowa'd Iowa (3 FGs to 2) and out-Wisconsin'd Wisconsin (the Badgers had literally just TWO rushing yards). I'm not sure, however, if Bert has the horses to out Minnesota Minnesota. Gophers force the Illini to throw it and, well, they just can't. Minn: 23--Ill: 13
Hoying: Finally, the one you've been waiting for. The Big Ten West has been quite a mess this season. You'd be tempted to call them a bit of a punching bag, except they have the exact same conference record as the East thanks to bottom-dwellers Rutgers and Michigan State. Another one of those awful East teams is Indiana, who has perhaps the most inexplicable win of the Big Ten season so far, knocking off Illinois back in September thanks to 3 Illini fumbles and some costly fourth down misses. Of course, Minnesota's record isn't spotless either as their last outing was a pretty solid humbling by Purdue. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but this one may ride on the health of a starting QB. It's not like Tommy DeVito has been lighting the world on fire for Illinois, but you really don't want to riding into battle with Art Sitkowski at the head of your troops. Yeah, Tanner Morgan wasn't anything special against Purdue either, but he's been much better than anyone Illinois has trotted out over the season as a whole. That should be enough to overcome a resurgent Illinois defense. Bert takes his first loss to the Golden Gophers. Minn: 24--Ill: 16
Schweinfurth: Minnesota is a pretty good team when Mo Ibrahim plays. We saw it last year. Illinois is getting love because they held Iowa under 7 points (and who hasn't at this point). Goldy should win this and get back on track to represent the B1G West. Minn: 21--Ill: 12
Seeberg: Ah yes, the B1G West matchup we all had circled at the start of the season. To be fair, the Gophers have been very good the last 2 seasons...when Mo Ibrahim plays. This is the poor man's version of Bama/UT where knowing if the best player plays and how healthy he is means darn near everything. The Illini, meanwhile, out Iowa'd Iowa (3 FGs to 2) and out-Wisconsin'd Wisconsin (the Badgers had literally just TWO rushing yards). I'm not sure, however, if Bert has the horses to out Minnesota Minnesota. Gophers force the Illini to throw it and, well, they just can't. Minn: 23--Ill: 13
Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Clemson (I know it's a wiener pick but GO NOLES!)
Hoying: Georgia Southern over James Madison
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Miss St.
Seeberg: Iowa State over Texas
