Two Playoff Teams from the Same Conference?

You've heard the same steady drumbeat from all the usual sources since before this season even began. "Don't be surprised to see two teams from the same conference in the playoff this year." It's not a total stretch. We've already seen it happen (2017), even in the BCS days (2011), when the playoff only included two teams. Why can't it happen this year, particularly when one conference has so many standout teams at the top? Why should one of them get left out for taking an acceptable loss to another title contender? Particularly if the team taking the loss is...well, you know the one.

That team.

The one that's in the playoff discussion every year, and no stranger to playoff controversy. That team has a good chance to avoid the drama this year, as even though they aren't quite atop the polls right now, they're still undefeated, they've destroyed everyone on their schedule to date, and they'll be favored in every game from here through the conference championship. That is, if they make it that far. One of their division rivals (no, not the rival, but an annoying one just the same) is right atop the undefeated pile with them, and the rival's coming to town for a massive November showdown. A loss would leave that team on the outside looking in on championship weekend. It wouldn't be a death knell to their playoff hopes, as that team has made the playoff once before despite not winning their division. But the champion of this conference will virtually be a lock for the playoff, so it seems the only way for that team to make the playoff with a loss would be for their conference to get two teams in.

"Would that be such a shame?" the narrative queries. Every team in the Pac-12 enters November with a blemish, with only 2 teams having avoided their dreaded playoff-eliminating second loss. Baylor's not going undefeated, and one-loss Oklahoma's the only other Big 12 team still in the playoff picture. Notre Dame won't be reprising their appearance from last year, and Clemson's one Clemsoning away from having a Group of 5-esque resume and knocking the ACC out of the playoff hunt as well. In a year with such a weak playoff field, why should that team be punished for playing in a tough conference and coming out mono-scathed?

You know what team I'm talking about, right? Maybe not. The above description actually fits two different teams. For purposes of blind comparison, we'll call them Borealis and Australis.

In November, Borealis, after hosting the undefeated showdown mentioned above, goes on the road to face their rivals in another possible top 10 matchup. Borealis already has another conference win over a ranked team, and though they didn't face a Power 5 opponent out of conference, they picked up another ranked win over a tough Group of 5 team who hasn't lost since.

In November, Australis, after hosting the undefeated showdown mentioned above, goes on the road to face their rivals in another possible top 10 matchup. Australis has played a hot load of trash so far in conference, and while they beat a (bad) Power 5 team to start the year, they're not going to pick up any quality wins out of conference. Their November stretch run even includes a nice FCS breather.

By now I don't have to tell you that Borealis and Australis are Ohio State and Alabama. And I don't have to tell you that Alabama has been one of the "two playoff teams from the same conference" since the pundits started publishing their preseason playoff predictions. But I will ask you: how many projected playoff fields have you seen with two teams from the B1G? You know, the conference with 3 undefeated teams?

On the one hand, the Buckeyes could take this as a compliment. Perhaps the narrative is that Ohio State's rampage is obviously going to continue, and the destruction will be so total that the playoff committee couldn't possibly countenance putting another Big Ten team in the playoff. But why is a 1 loss Penn State, with wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, less deserving than, say, a 1 loss Georgia, or LSU, or yes, Alabama? Now's not the time to split hairs over these teams' relative playoff resumes (that will come later). For now, just question why all the love is being heaped on one conference and their standard-bearer while another is being ignored.

Week 10: Go Bye Bye!

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 28-4 (2-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 27-5 (4-5 upset)
3.) Seeberg 25-7 (1-8 upset)
4.) Draper 24-8 (1-8 upset)

Welcome to another thrilling week of NCAA division 1-A football! See all your favorite teams* in action this Saturday**.





*Offer not applicable to LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, San Diego State, Texas, or any of 25 other teams on byes this week.



**Yes, we know some teams play on Thursday or Friday. Shut up.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators

Draper: Hooray for the Cocktail Party! (The only game that doesn't suck this week!) After faceplanting against South Carolina, Georgia cannot afford to drop another game (not to mention the need to earn a quality win after ND entered free fall).  A touch of shine has been taken off the Gators in Death Valley, but they're still a pretty good team (at least defensively).  Georgia is more complete.  I'm expecting a close game, but one in which the team with more experience at QB (Jake Fromm State Farm) will take the game.  This will likely solidify a reappearance of the Dawgs in the SEC Championship.  UGA: 24--UF: 16

Hoying: If you listen carefully, you can hear all the head coverings hitting the ground. Each quality win on which these teams were hanging their hats took it on the chin last weekend. At least Florida's vanquished foe, Auburn, looked somewhat respectable in Death Valley against LSU. But Notre Dame? The less said, the better, and suddenly Georgia's resume doesn't look so good. Remember when the Bulldogs lost to South Carolina? Since that masterpiece, the Cocks have lost to Florida and Tennessee. Yiiiikes. Hope you enjoyed the 90's and 2017, SEC East fans. The winner of this game isn't taking down LSU or Bama. And that winner will be...Georgia. The Gator D is good but the Bulldog D is better. UGA: 20--UF: 14

Schweinfurth: I have watched a little of both these teams this year. Let me start by saying, I'm not real impressed with either. Georgia is a team that can't get out of its own way and Florida is just a head scratcher. Both teams do have good defenses, but QB play has been suspect. I'm gonna go with the Gators for some odd reason. UGA: 17--UF: 21

Seeberg: A few weeks ago, it wouldn't have even crossed my mind to do any work on this game, Bulldogs by a mile.  Now?  These squads feel like mirror images of each other.  Largely solid defenses with woefully underperforming offenses.  Unfortunately for the visitors, despite the high hopes to start the season, a trip into the Swamp is rarely the cure for an offense that is struggling to find rhythm against opponents with a pulse in recent weeks.  Hard to imagine Fromm springing back to life in Jacksonville.  Gators officially enter the "multiple SEC teams should get into the playoff!" discussion.  UGA: 13--UF: 20

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: Wheeeeee!!!! No one cares! Yeah, SMU is now in the driver's seat to snag the NY6 bid from the Group of 5 after App State took it on the chin, but they're dogs vs. Memphis.... Are you really deserving if you are fairly deep dogs to Memphis? Well, perhaps they just need to play the 'no one trusts us' card, but Memphis is no slouch.  I'm leaning on Tigers to keep the Group of 5 a complete and abject mess.  Go Tigers.  SMU: 28 -- Mem: 34

Hoying: I believe this is a first at Let's Go Bucks! We've never been forced to write about SMU before. But they've become impossible to ignore. After taking the reins (heh) from Chad Morris a couple of years ago, Sonny Dykes has turned the ponies into a serious NY6 contender. They even took one of Texas's castoff quarterbacks, Shane Buechele, and pulled off a victory against TCU! Not even the QB Texas kept could do that this season. As for their opponent, the Tigers have been playing with fire since their opening season win over Ole Mississippi. It burned them against Temple but ultimately not against Tulsa, as a last second shank delivered Memphis from a crippling loss. Yes, that Tulsa, the one that SMU needed a 21 point 4th quarter comeback and three overtimes to beat. The AAAAAAAC has been the most fun conference in America this season, except for maybe the Pac-12, and the race to face Cincinnati for the conference crown isn't slowing down anytime soon. It's just that, after this weekend, Memphis will be in the lead. A slightly better D, along with the home crowd, dooms the Mustangs' perfect season. SMU: 31--Mem: 34

Schweinfurth: With all the "Texas is back" talk last year, someone forgot about the woebegone Mustangs. The only school to ever receive the NCAA death penalty. Let's be honest here, I only watched 2 AAC games this year and one involved Ohio State. I truly know nothing about either team. Why not, SMU stays undefeated. SMU: 38--Mem: 35

Seeberg: SMU is undefeated and somehow avoids Cincinnati on their schedule.  Honestly it feels like a season simialr to those Northwestern teams in the mid-90s that "won" back-to-back B1G titles by virtue of having neither Ohio State OR TTUN on their docket.  Not sure how that was legal, but back to the present.  Memphis has a penchant for playing close games and there's no reason to suspect this one will be any different.  The Tigers' schedule is massively backloaded, however, finishing with games at Houston and at home against Cinci.  My guess is they will be amped up enough for this one to sneak by before falling flat late.  Enjoy Beale Street.  SMU: 34--Mem: 41

Upset Special

Draper: Vandy over South Carolina

Hoying: Kansas over Kansas State

Schweinfurth: USC over Oregon

Seeberg: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame