Friday, December 29, 2023

New Year's Six - Dawn of the Power Two

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 52-16 (1-11 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (2-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-8 upset)
3.) Hoying 46-22 (2-10 upset)

The premier half-dozen bowls are upon us once again, and it feels like the end of an era in two different ways. For one, the four-team Playoff closes its decade-long run (1/10, too much Michigan). But also, once Florida State is able to secede from the ACC and join forces with the Big Ten (or Nineteen or whatever), each of these bowls will have featured a showdown between a Big Ten and SEC team, present or future. Except you, Oregon, you get to babysit this year's token chump. The future is now. The fight for America's flag-bearing college football conference has begun.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30

Peach Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: Of all the non-playoff NY6 games, this is the most difficult to pick....and also the game I care about the least.  Picking the 'better team' is a tough proposition in these types of games as 'who wants to play' is arguably more important.  I THINK a full strength Penn State is better than a full strength Ole Miss, but no Chop Robinson and potentially missing Fashanu and King make this interesting. It will come down to Drew discovering if Drew Allar can do anything.  Lucky for him, Kiffin isn't know for stellar defense.  Even though Manny Diaz has moved on to the shinier pastures of Duke, I think the defense travels and does enough to stifle Jaxson Dart and keep the B1G rolling. Miss: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: Lane Kiffin finally did it. For the second time in his career, he beat a Power 5 team that finished with 9 wins or more that season. This time, it was a "cover your eyes, Chris Spielman" shootout against Jayden Heisman and the all gas no brakes LSU Tigers. But that didn't really translate into wins against the big fish on the SEC schedule this year, Alabama (at least it was close) and Georgia (not so much). Yes, we all know that Franklin has similar levels of success at Penn State, racking up a total of zero wins against the Big Two these last three years, but the man does show up for bowl games. Half the time at least. Drew Allar wasn't the wunderkind that was predicted by those so desperate to find a reason not to crown Ohio State or Michigan again this season, and Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton weren't quite Blake Corum and TreVeyon Henderson. But the defense was still a problem even for Harbaugh and Day, and Ole Miss has faceplanted this season when it gets away from its preferred track meet pace. Losing Manny Diaz will hurt but the pieces are still in place for Lions to get one over on the SEC. Miss: 20--PSU: 21
Schweinfurth: Penn State feels like a throw in here. Allar can’t (or won’t) throw the ball more than ten yards downfield. The PSU defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but I think there is just too much fire power in the Rebels' stable. Ole Miss: 28—PSU: 20
Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup here of highly contrasting styles, pretty similar talent, and coaches who consistently underachieve in the big ones.  A very realistic scenario exists where UM is the only B1G team to lose their bowl game.  It happened one other time, by the way, in 2017.  I haven't watched enough Ole Miss to know if Kiffin coaches badly in those games or not, but Franklin sure as hell lays egg after egg, all the while with that bemused look on his face like he's the most devout predestination believer on the planet and nothing he could do could possibly affect the outcome.  In short, I trust neither coach much, but I trust Kiffin more.  Rebels late.  Miss: 27--PSU: 23

Orange Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida State Seminoles
Draper: There was a slight chance the Noles, after being stupidly snubbed, would play the eff it card and come out ready to prove the world wrong.  However, they chose the other option of completely bailing on this game.  Every player of note is gone and an 18 year old kid, who struggled mightily against Louisville, gets to face Kirby Smart and the Dawgs without ANY key skill players.  There's no Jared Verse on the back end to pressure Carson Beck so this could get ugly quick.  Honestly, if FSU pulls this off with absolutely NO ONE left, give Norvell Coach of the Year and the Noles should hang a banner and go completely Stone Cold on the committee...but I can't see a path.  UGA: 38--FSU: 10
Hoying: When the New Year's Six lineups were announced, I thought the Fiesta Bowl was an easy pick for biggest laugher among what should otherwise be a pretty competitive series of games. I was wrong. Florida State took one look at the 2017 UCF script for claiming a piece of a national title over a 1-loss Playoff champion and said "nah, we're good." Obviously their star starting QB, Jordan Travis, is out of pocket for this game, but so is his backup. And his backup's backup's backup (not QB3, though, thank heavens). And the top 3 running backs. And the top 2 wide receivers. Look, back when the wheels were starting to fall off of the 90's juggernaut Noles, they had to play in a BCS bowl without their top two QBs. And they actually led for a hot second before Fabian Walker threw a pick-six and FSU decided to go with Anquan Boldin, yes, that Anquan Boldin, as QB going forward. That was against, uh, Georgia. This time, I wouldn't be surprised if FSU doesn't score a point on offense, and with a handful of defensive starters out as well, any non-Sickos might just want to skip this one. UGA: 24--FSU: 0
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure which team wants to be in this game less. Georgia was on top of the world and came crashing down to Bama. Florida State got screwed by the committee, is playing their 3rd (4th?) string QB and the entire team bailed. That FSU defense was nasty with everyone playing, but now the whole team is a giant middle finger to the committee. This is a laugher that everyone turns off after the first score. UGA: 38—FSU: 7
Seeberg:  We all know the Seminoles are out over half their starters for this one.  To be fair, UGA was the likely pick even before FSU began its war of attrition against itself.  I feel bad for Chief, even he couldn't muster the courage for a close scoreline, much less a colossal upset.  Neither can I.  Dawgs roll.  UGA: 31--FSU: 3

MONDAY, JANUARY 1

Fiesta Bowl: Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: This is the greatest season in the history of Liberty since Cornwallis surrendered in 1781 at Yorktown.  Group of 5 teams traditionally do very well in these big games in recent years due to the 'this is a major accomplishment for us' vs. 'what a failure missing the playoffs'.  Oregon was a game from the playoffs so the consolation, quite frankly, sucks. Liberty may be undefeated, but their best win is....Western Kentucky? Bowling Green? wooof. Boise State over Arizona, Houston over FSU, UCF over Auburn, Tulane over Ole Miss; but this Liberty team doesn't have a Jay Ajayi, Ed Oliver, or Tajae Spears on the roster.  No need to overthink this.  There may be opt-out for the Ducks, but I just don't care.  Liberty-Bibberty: 13--Oregon: 38
Hoying: Don't let the laugher above distract you from the fact that this has no business being a New Year's Six matchup. Sentimental sympathetic squishes, still heartbroken over Boise State not getting a shot at the BCS title in 2006 and 2009, and UCF not getting their shot at the Playoff in 2017, have ensured that at least one team from the Group of 5 will be shoved into the new 12-team abomination from next season forward. This decision will make even less sense after the Big Ten and SEC finish vacuuming up every remaining team of value nationwide and the remaining former power conferences desperately backfill with whatever teams can manage to complete a forward pass. And it all starts this season, as the Playoff Committee had to find somebody from the Group of 5 to match the dozen minus one deserving teams otherwise in the field, and they settled on...Liberty. An undefeated team that played literally the weakest schedule in all of Division I-A, including zero Power 5 teams. At least they won a championship of the weakest conference, Conference USA, that looked at this time last year like it wouldn't survive the last round of realignment. Oh, they can run the ball, racking up more yards on the ground than even the service academies. And yes, Oregon did have some trouble containing Washington's Dillon Johnson in both of the Ducks' losses this year. But this isn't last year's Tulane that caught USC napping. That Tulane navigated an AAC that still had a Fickell-coached Cincinnati in it, and scored a win over Kansas State out of conference. This game is a travesty, something befitting the first round of the NCAA tournament with a 2 seed Oregon pitted against a 15 seed Liberty. Enjoy seeing this in the Playoff next year, at least before the Big Ten and SEC scrap it and come up with something better. Lib: 17--Ore: 38
Schweinfurth: This one shouldn’t be close, honestly. The committee had to throw a G6 team in and Liberty got tapped. Oregon was very good all year, they just couldn’t beat the Huskies. BoNix goes out with another win and poor Liberty gets smacked.  Liberty: 14—Ore: 42
Seeberg: So, is Oregon playing Washington?  No.  Well then, pretty easy pick here!  Let's be honest, letting a group of 5 squad into the NY6 each year is well-intentioned, and occasionally deserved.  Some years, however, that team is better left eating the remnants of a massive Pop Tart.  This year is decidedly the latter of those two aforementioned options.  Even a sleepwalking Ducks team will roll here.  Lib: 17--Ore: 41

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
Draper: Bama was ruled out of the playoffs in September after a loss to the Longhorns at home AND a lackluster win over the (non-1997) Bulls, but like Thanos, they are inevitable.  Jalen Milroe is one of the great yo-yo players of all time.  He'll bounce from 'what were you thinking' to 'I can't believe he made that play'.  Let's not forget that this team nearly (should have) lost to a bad Auburn team, but rebounded to defeat the 2 time champs.  In terms of raw talent, the Tide are leaps and bounds ahead, but the Wolverines have veteran leadership and a unity of purpose.  They know what they are as a team: control the clock, run the ball, play good defense.  The lack of wide receiver talent is a problem for the maize and blue, but the tight ends are the key.  The loss of Zinter will be a problem vs. the monsters on the Tide line.  I expect the Wolverine defense to make a few plays and turn Milroe over, but even with a good game by McCarthy, the running game won't have enough success.  It will come down to Milroe's rushing ability to make the plays needed.  Eleven warriors, Ramzy said it best: "Conference pride is a disease even when Michigan isn't involved.  This year's CFP is an SEC-B1G invitational, which turns pulling for a conference into a mild phlegmy cold.  Washington first, Texas or Alabama next, Michigan under no circumstances.  As Jason said to his grandfather Hermes in The Argonautica - f**k those guys forever." Ala: 30--UM: 20
Hoying: Folks, the Tide have done it. They've proved me wrong again and again and again all the way to the semifinals of the national championship. And their reward is to face the best Michigan team since the dawn of the BCS era. You've seen Michigan play; they're solid in every phase of the game and have been #1 in most advanced stats rankings for the bulk of the season. But, and this is a big but, how much of that can be attributed to the matter of indeterminate shadiness? Ever since the scandal broke, something has looked...off...with the Wolverine pass game. RIP another September Heisman for a Michigan QB. Now, granted, Michigan has faced the best three defenses they've seen all season during that span, but the only one McCarthy was able to find any room against was the Buckeyes, and even that hinged on a tight-window TD that could easily have been overturned as a brilliant strip by Denzel Burke. And the news doesn't get any better, as it's possible that Alabama's defense will be the best the Wolverines have faced all season. After Georgia woke up from their early season nap (and the two quarters they took off against Georgia Tech), they looked like the team to challenge Michigan for the national title until they ran into the Bama brick wall. Ole Miss, LSU, these high-powered teams were stymied by the Tide's relentless boa constrictor suffocation. For a while, this was looking like a more classic pre-Tua Nick Saban Alabama, with a world class defense and a mere competent QB. Then Jalen Milroe finally arrived and arguably outplayed the Heisman winner down the stretch, providing a deadly dual-threat attack that has historically been the bane of any Harbaugh coached Michigan team. Marvin Harrison was a problem for the UM D, and Jermaine Burton is going to further their nightmares in this one. For the third straight year, Michigan flames out early in the Playoff, and the dark ages come again this offseason to Ann Arbor. Ala: 27--UM: 20
Schweinfurth: JJ McCarthy has one passing TD in his last 6 games…I wonder what changed? Honestly, I feel like Michigan is here because Ryan Day’s butt puckered again. But that’s a different discussion. Bama’s defense is the real deal and UM had trouble with the Bucks D. Milroe will give Harbaugh and Co nightmares with his mobility. Bama wins because cheaters never prosper. Bama: 35—UM: 16
Seeberg: As I look at this game, there is an absolutely hilarious gut feeling that, if anybody had said it to you in September you would have laughed them out of the room:  I trust Bama's QB more than UM's.  Whether it's the lack of advanced knowledge or facing better defenses or a combination thereof, it's clear that the maize and blue staff have minimal-to-no faith in their signal caller.  And Bama will absolutely eat your lunch if you're a one-dimensional offense.  I do think it will be a largely competitive game, but I just don't see a scenario where Milroe is completely held in check, and I just don't see a scenario where UM can get to 25 points barring a defensive score.  Hope Harbaugh enjoys his last view of the Pasadena sunset as his alma mater's head coach before he lives in socal permanently as coach of the Chargers.  Ala: 27--UM: 19

Sugar Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
Draper: This is an extremely tough game to pick.  Washington seemed to continue to win close games, but they do keep winning.  It seems that the Huskies are stumbling through the latter half of the schedule, but it was a murderer's row: Oregon, USC (yeah, they are talented), Oregon State, Arizona, Wazzu (kinda), and Oregon again....yet they kept winning.  Texas has also limped through the season after losing to OU, but they kept winning, albeit against lesser competition.  I think this comes down to Ewers/Mitchell vs. Penix/Odunze.  I believe the best player on either team is Rome Odunze in purple and gold and he'll make the play (or 2, or 3) under the veteran leadership of Penix (who has had time to heal up).  I don't think Ewers is up to the biggest stage yet.  If UW can turn the Horns over a bit, I think the Pac12 gets their first (and likely last) playoff victory. This is a heart pick, but I stand by it.  UT: 30--UW: 34
Hoying: Washington Huskies 52, USC Trojans 42, November 4, 2023. That was the only time in the Washington's last 9 games that they managed to score a double-digit victory over an opponent. Granted, there were two wins over Oregon included as part of that seemingly unimpressive winning streak. But, as I said in my Pac-12 Championship Game preview, there's a good chance that nobody in the Pac-12 is very good this year. All of the seemingly marquee out-of-conference wins have crumbled into dust. Washington blowing out Michigan State in East Lansing helped put them on the map this season, but now we know what that's worth. Texas has taken off a few games as well (TCU? Houston??) to go with their actual loss to Oklahoma, but the overall resume stands strong, especially the only win by one Playoff team over another this season. Washington has been living on borrowed time for too long. They proved the haters (guilty) wrong against Oregon, but for the first time since the days of Colt McCoy, Texas. Is. Back. UT: 34--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: There is always one game in the playoff that is a decent watch. This one should be it. Between a healthy Quinn Ewers and Michal Penix, I expect lots of points. Washington has shown they are the more tested and complete team to this point. Huskies move on. UT: 35—Wash: 42
Seeberg: I expect this one to be the more entertaining and well-played semifinal.  Texas is back(ish) and in the playoff against, quite frankly, the guy who I thought should have won the Heisman, former Indiana QB Michael Penix (still funny to say that.  He was the HOOSIERS QUARTERBACK HOLY HELL).  The Huskies, to put it plainly, are just the offensive-minded version of the 2002 Buckeyes.  They do just enough on defense to keep it close and Penix and his legit WRs outscore the opponents.  I picked against the Huskies multiple times down the stretch, convinced the clock would proverbially strike midnight, but it never did.  I've learned my lesson.  UDub wins a classic.  UT: 34--UW: 38

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29

Cotton Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: There have been some amazing swings in the spread in this game.  Bucks open as a favorite, it gets bet the other way after the whole world assumes the Buckeyes will all opt out a la FSU.  Then, (almost) all key players commit to play for the scarlet and gray (back to OSU) before the shocking departure of McCord to Syracuse?  (????).  Regardless, the return of the Bucks and the seeming unification of the team behind Devin Brown have given me far more confidence that this is a mismatch.  Missouri has exceeded all expectations this year, but with a healthy Buckeye defense coming in with motivation (seemingly), I don't see Cody Schrader keeping his rushing prowess against a stout Silver Bullet defense.  I'm not sure Brown is the answer and McCord was very good this year (certainly no Stroud, but also not a Bauserman).  It's looking like Marv may have already played his last game (please no....), but the talent on the Buckeye offense and defense far exceeds that of the Tigers.  Mizzou just doesn't have the horses.  Bucks tie a bow on the end of another season that just didn't hit the expectations.  Tough when you need a title every year, but falling just short once again leaves a sour taste. (Sounds like JTT and Marv should come back for another shot....right?....RIGHT?!?!?! Mizzou: 17--OSU: 30
Hoying: Missouri has been a nice story this season, and I haven't gotten to see as much of it as I would have liked. I've caught the big moments like nailing a 61 yard field goal to sink Kansas State or putting in a scare between the hedges against Georgia. But they haven't really moved the needle on a week-to-week basis, to the point where one could be forgiven for not realizing that Brady Cook was quietly putting together one of the best seasons by any QB this year, or that Cody Schrader had followed up a tepid first half of the season on the ground by blasting through his last few games like a man on fire. The Tigers aren't quite as deep at the non-skill positions to make this a "talent-equated game", as our head coach likes to say, but there's no getting over the glaring question mark behind center on the other side of the field. Kyle McCord was unfairly judged this year and, like Brady Cook, truly was one of the top QBs in the country. But Devin Brown, as much as the team really seems to love him and rally around him, hasn't impressed during the few chances he's had to shine this season. The mobility we were promised hasn't really made an appearance outside of a couple of goal line packages against Purdue, and his passing has been wildly inconsistent. It won't help matters that Julian Fleming has left for greener pastures, and it doesn't look like Marv will suit up either. But the good news is that pretty much the entire rest of the team will still be playing, meaning Missouri will still be facing one of the top defenses in the country and the Buckeyes should have solid line play on both sides of the ball (at least as solid as they've looked this year). That should be just enough to deliver a Buckeye victory. If it doesn't happen, don't hang your head, the Buckeyes have never won a national championship the year after a bowl victory...Mizz: 27--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: I don’t know about anyone else, but I just can’t get excited for this one. Mizzou is a mid level SEC team and has played will this year. Honestly, I don’t know anything else about them. I’ve mostly paid no attention to the comings and goings of the Bucks either, other than to know McCord saw himself out and Marv is going pro. Devin Brown is fine I guess, but I think Day is going to have to lean on the run game quite a bit. The passing game may get dumbed down to (hello mesh patterns) to help Brown read the defense better. The Bucks should win this, but the upheaval may be a distraction. It’s close, but the Bucks go out on a winning note. Mizzou: 17—OSU: 24
Seeberg:  CAN SOMEONE JUST SAY IF THEY ARE OR AREN'T COMING BACK??!?!??!?  As Gene Wilder expertly put it "the suspense is terrible...I hope it'll last."  Regardless, just about everyone not named Marv or McCord is playing in this one.  I think these weeks of practice have finally crystallized what went on all spring and summer with the QB battle.  McCord was likely steadier, but there were days when Brown outplayed him...and Devin seems to be almost universally more liked as a leader.  McCord's leadership was nonexistent in Ann Arbor, punctuated by dear old daddy demanding more cash and a starting spot next year before leaving for the greener pastures of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone.  Wait, what's that?  This is football???  Yikes.  Well, good luck to that dude anyway.  Back to the game at hand.  Mizzou isn't as talented but might honestly be better coached and they sport a legit DUDE at RB in Cody Schrader.  Hartline can earn his money (as if he doesn't already) by having the next wave of WRs step up for Marv and the departed (and criminally underrated) Julian Fleming.  I expect- and hope for- a healthy dose of Henderson- then again, he and Hayden are the only scholarship RBs left!  College football in 2023, ladies and gentlemen.  Assuming the WRs are as advertised, and we can escape with only minor snafus in the special teams (Parker Fleming still having a job may be the most shocking part of the offseason thus far honestly), the Bucks should end the season with a competitive, well-earned W against a member of the other power 2 conference.  Savor it, Buckeye Nation, it's just the spring game between now and August 31st.  MIZZ: 20--OSU: 26