Undefeated, On the Outside, and Looking In?

Well, it happened again. Only this time the disease struck the Buckeyes instead of their opponent. And now, with two cancellations nerfing the Buckeyes' win column, they find themselves on the precipice of being locked out of the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. That's bad, but not as bad as it could have been. Unlike 2015 and 2016, the Buckeyes aren't looking up at another team atop the Big Ten East standings, as I feared last week. And they aren't quite blocked from the Big Ten Championship hunt until another cancellation hits. But, as we seem to do every year here at Let's Go Bucks (except last year, when the great debate was whether Ohio State would be the #1 seed or the #2 seed), let's run the Playoff scenarios and scout the threats to a fourth Playoff berth. In short, the threats are real, but not likely to be devastating.

BUCKEYE RESUMES

First, let's consider the Buckeyes' possible resumes at season's end. Four of them are pretty simple:

1. Buckeyes play all scheduled games and win out. Buckeyes are in the Playoff as no worse than the #3 seed.
2. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, lose to MSU or UM, but win the Big Ten Championship. Buckeyes are very likely in the Playoff as the #3 or #4 seed.
3. Buckeyes play all scheduled games, beat MSU and UM but lose to Northwestern.  Buckeyes are likely out of the Playoff (behind SEC champ, ACC champ, and Northwestern at least).
4. Buckeyes miss another game and take a loss. Buckeyes. Are. Out.

Now for the chaos scenario: what if Ohio State misses the Michigan State or Michigan game but beats the other, and wins their everybody-gets-a-trophy-weekend game (likely against Wisconsin)? The Buckeyes would still be undefeated, with a win over Indiana that's still likely to great at season's end and a nice win over whoever's #2 in the Big Ten West (and a bunch of wins over total crap). If they aren't in the Playoff, we have to find four teams with better resumes. Can we find four such teams?

PLAYOFF THREATS

Slam Dunks

All of these teams would no doubt get in ahead of 6-0 Ohio State:

1. Undefeated Alabama
2. Undefeated Notre Dame
3. Undefeated Northwestern (yes, slam dunk)

The good news is that all of the above occurring would be pretty good news for the Buckeyes. We'll go into greater detail why below, but the short answer is that it clears out any other major threats to steal a playoff spot from Ohio State.

Wild Card

1. Undefeated Pac-12 champion

Oregon State gave Ohio State a terrific gift by knocking off Oregon last night. The Ducks checked in as the top ranked Pac-12 team in the Playoff Committee's opening rankings, at a humble #15. But they aren't the only undefeated Pac-12 team left. #18 USC is still lurking at 3-0, while Washington and Colorado are sitting unranked at 2-0 each. The Pac-12's problem is that with USC's game being cancelled, each of these teams can play a maximum of five games going into the Pac-12 championship, meaning they can, at best, match Ohio State's six wins on the season. Winning the Pac-12 championship would give the champion a nice feather in their cap that a 6-0 Ohio State won't have, but the rest of their resume would be a bit thin. I suppose one of USC or Colorado hand the other their only loss, then go on to beat undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. However, the champ is going to have to fight a perception problem. The Pac-12 champ has exactly one win in the Playoff era (to be fair, that's one more than the Big 12 and just one fewer than the Big Ten) and haven't made an appearance since Washington in 2016. The Committee was willing to rank Ohio State #4 and Oregon #15 despite the Buckeyes playing just one more game to that point. I don't really see a Pac-12 team jumping up the rankings and overtaking Ohio State while playing the same number of games.

One Loss Threats

We have never seen an undefeated Power 5 team left out of the Playoff, but we have seen one finish behind two one-loss teams (in 2014, 13-0 Florida State finished behind 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Oregon). What teams could finish with one loss and push Ohio State out of the way this year?

First, they would have to be a conference champion, or at least a conference championship game participant. It doesn't make sense to leave out undefeated Ohio State for missing the Big Ten championship while putting in a one-loss team under similar circumstances.

Second, it has to come from a conference garnering at least a minimum level of respect. That means the SEC, the ACC, and the Big Ten (this is a moot point for the Big 12 as they don't have any one-loss teams left).

Third, a one-loss team from the Big Ten is not going to jump undefeated Ohio State, even if they win a conference championship.  Even if Indiana wins out, they're not going to erase 42-35. Even if Maryland wins out, they can't overcome getting whacked by 40 by Northwestern, even if they won a rematch.  And if Northwestern drops a game, they'll plummet too far in the rankings to catch Ohio State, even if they demolish Indiana in Indianapolis.

So whom does that leave?  The following, many of which are mutually exclusive:

1. Clemson (with conference championship)
2. Alabama (with conference championship)
3. Florida (with conference championship)
4. Texas A&M (with conference championship*)
5. Miami (with conference championship)
6. Notre Dame (with conference championship)
7. Notre Dame (without conference championship)
8. Alabama (without conference championship)

*This would require Alabama to lose to Auburn and LSU, so, no.

The "LOL, No" Category

These teams are not making the Playoff ahead of 6-0 Ohio State. Just, LOL, no.

1. One-loss Miami or Texas A&M staying home on Championship Saturday
2. Cincinnati, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Marshall
3. A one-loss Pac-12 team
4. A one-loss Big Ten team
5. Two-loss Big 12 Champion
6. Any other 2-loss team

Best and Worst Cases

So we've narrowed down the threats to the Buckeyes to the following ten teams in some shape or form:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Northwestern
4. Clemson
5. Florida
6. Texas A&M
7. Miami
8. USC
9. Washington
10. Colorado

Obviously, not all of these teams can simultaneously finish with the requisite number of losses to finish ahead of Ohio State. But what are the worst case scenarios? Let's look conference-by-conference for the best and worst cases to aid or hinder Ohio State's Playoff chase.

ACC

Best case: Notre Dame wins out. The Irish go to the Playoff, but Clemson gets knocked out with a second loss.  Miami finishes without any big wins or conference titles, and thus finishes safely behind Ohio State.

Worst case: Clemson and Notre Dame win out until the ACC Championship, which Clemson wins in a nailbiter. Clemson enters the Playoff after avenging their only loss, which they took in double overtime without their best player.  Notre Dame also enters the Playoff, having essentially the same resume as Clemson minus the win over Miami.

Big Ten

Best case: Northwestern loses, preferably to one-loss Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Indiana's game against Wisconsin is cancelled, saving either team from taking another loss. Ohio State beats Wisconsin on championship weekend (but not in the championship game). Every Big Ten team other than Ohio State finishes with a loss. One-loss Indiana has the conference title but can't overcome their head-to-head loss to Ohio State, which continues to bolster the Buckeyes' playoff resume along with the Buckeyes' win over Wisconsin.

Worst case: Northwestern wins out and wins the Big Ten Championship, completing a 9-0 season with wins over Indiana and Wisconsin. Northwestern goes to the Playoff ranked #3 at the worst, as Ohio State has absolutely no argument to be ranked over the Wildcats.

Pac-12

Best case: each of USC, Washington, and Colorado takes a loss. No Pac-12 team sniffs the Playoff.

Worst case: USC hands Colorado its only loss, then smashes undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 Championship. USC sits on six wins, including two quality-ish wins, and a conference title. Probably not enough to pass the Buckeyes, but enough to make them nervous.

SEC

Best case: Bama by a million, week after week. Texas A&M loses another game just for fun. Alabama goes to the Playoff as the #1 seed, and every other team is safely sidelined.

Worst case: One-loss Florida edges undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida goes to the Playoff with the nation's best win and an acceptable 3-point loss to a top five team, while Alabama joins them after smacking Georgia and Texas A&M and taking an acceptable loss.

All the Worst Cases

If you did the math above, you calculated that I lied a little bit in the worst case scenarios, since I apportioned four Playoff spots among five teams (Clemson, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Florida, and Alabama). OK, in that scenario, Alabama gets left out, but that's not the point. The point is that Ohio State is in very real danger of going undefeated and getting left out of the Playoff, but only if a lot of breaks don't go their way. Basically, the undefeated Buckeyes would need three of the following four things to not happen (in decreasing order of devastation):

1. Northwestern wins out
2. One-loss Clemson beats undefeated Notre Dame
3. One-loss Florida beats undefeated Alabama
4. USC, Washington, or Colorado wins out

These are very specific scenarios (except #4, and I'm not even sure that's a threat to the Buckeyes' chances), although only three weeks remain to turn each of them aside.

So buck up, Buckeye Nation. There are still many paths to the playoff, championship game or no championship game. And as a bonus, you get to root harder than ever against Alabama, Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame, USC over the coming weeks.

Week 13: The Worst Thanksgiving

Standings:

1.) Draper 12-5 (1-4 upset)

2.) Schweinfurth 11-6 (1-4 upset)

2.) Hoying 11-6 (0-5 upset)

Happy holidays to all celebrating Thanksgiving together or alone this week. We're particularly lonely without our favorite turkeys up north for the Buckeyes to pound on this year. But we're always hopeful for an early Christmas present in a couple of weeks.

FRIDAY

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels [shhhhh...you saw nussing last week]

Draper: I just can't get behind this Notre Dame team.  I don't know why, but they don't scare or excite me.  Even after defeating the Big Bad Dabo (without their QB....at home...with many fans spread viruses), I don't believe.  I remember watching that Louisville game which was just gross.  UNC is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  Mack Brown can sprinkle some magic dust and get Sam Howell to play in the stratosphere and potentially make this a shootout, but I'm not seeing the upset here.  ND: 42--UNC: 31
Hoying: Florida State has beaten two teams this year. One was Jacksonville State, who actually led the Noles into the 3rd quarter. The other was North Carolina, a team that threw all over FSU all day but was playing from behind all day after an early punt block and pick six. When the Heels are hot they get points in bunches, but the defense is a bit lacking, as shown in their last outing, a 59-53 shootout with Wake Forest. Notre Dame has a potent attack of its own, led by dual-threat QB Ian Book, and they're not quite as mistake prone as Carolina is. Yeah, they struggled with BC for a hot minute but they looked a lot better than Clemson did. They also looked a lot better than Clemson against...Clemson. I don't see Notre Dame overlooking this game, which means I don't see them losing. ND: 45--UNC: 24

Schweinfurth: I don't believe in Notre Dame, but I really don't believe in this Tar Heel team. The Heels have been letting teams get out to these ridiculous leads and then somehow coming back to win. I can really see the Irish jumping out to a huge lead and not looking back. UNC will score, but there will be no comeback this time. ND: 45--UNC: 21

Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Is Texas back?  Depends on what they are ‘back’ to...2nd - 4th place in the Big Twelve seems to be ‘back lately.  Iowa State has put together a nice little run in the conference that no one believes has a chance to make the playoff (no one remembers the Pac 12 exists so they don’t count).  Sam Meh-linger has shown some sparks of very goodness, but it’s too sporadic.  Oh, and the defense...  Tom Herman is about ready to go quietly into that goodnight.  Send in the CLONES! ISU: 38–UT: 34
Hoying: ISU coach Matt Campbell's name continues to be whispered in wish lists for replacement coaches (including our neighbors up north) while Texas coach Tom Herman is mentioned in the same circles with some measure of trepidation. Why? Because Iowa State is a total of one game worse than Texas over Tom Herman's tenure at Texas, despite the fact that, you know, Iowa State is Iowa State and Texas is Texas. This season, Iowa State shook off a blowout loss to Louisiana to surge to sole possession of the Big 12 lead, and with the big bad Sooners already out of the way, a win over Texas would just about lock them into their first Big 12 championship appearance. The Horns are a late TCU touchdown and a weird Red River overtime away from being undefeated but they haven't exactly been impressive in their wins either. They're a bit too reliant on their pass game. Iowa State also boasts a formidable pass attack, and Texas's pass D has been abysmal. I know it's something of a cliché at this point for Texas Tom to overperform in a big game like this before soiling the bed against the next goober of the week, but I think his magic is starting to run out.  ISU: 34--UT: 31

Schweinfurth: Matt Campbell has the Cyclones leading a messy Big 12. ISU plays hard and is a hard out for any team right now. Texas may be playing for Tom Herman's job. A three loss season will not sit will in Austin, especially after Ohio State just poached two of the top recruits. Yes, the Longhorns have righted the ship a bit since that rough start, but I just can't trust that Ehlinger won't turn the ball over. ISU: 35--UT: 31

SATURDAY

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Why? Why would we do this to ourselves? Why would we do this to you? Because it’s just so....fun...to watch these teams struggle and fail.  Michigan may have found their QB for the rest of the year (future is a bit too strong) after taking down their rivals in scarlet last week in 3OT, but Penn State is an abject mess.  Everyone is jumping ship.  We thought UM was a train wreck? Well, PSU is the Titanic.  The Wolverines string together a second win to build a little confidence before the truth hits in 2 weeks.  McNamera will look good and give the announcers some fuel concerning The Game....but whatevs.  PSU: 17—UM: 27
Hoying: I believed in you, Buttgers, and you tore my heart out. Did the Wolverines finally turn a corner in triple-OT in Piscataway, under the steady arm of Cade McNamera? I'm not convinced. Again, Buttgers. I think Michigan is one of those teams that is exactly as good as their record. Penn State, on the other hand, has found a few creative ways to give games away this season. Yes, they're still missing Journey Brown and Micah Parsons, and yes, they just lost Pat Freiermuth as well, but Michigan is missing something like their entire starting defense (the competent ones anyway, yeah, you heard me, Dax Hill). The Wolverine D can't really stop anybody right now, Buttgers included, and while Penn State remains a turnover machine, I think they'll score fast enough on Michigan that turnovers won't keep them out of the game. This should be another classic for all you sickos out there who love to see Michigan in nailbiters against bad teams  (*raises hand*), but the Nittany Lions will finally get their first win and leave the Wolverine faithful to wonder what their worst loss of the season is: giving Sparty their only win, or doing the same for PSU? PSU: 31--UM: 27

Schweinfurth: It's your B1G laughing stock game of the week! Penn State took that haymaker from Indiana and just hasn't recovered. I mean 0-5? They are the first team in the history of the AP poll to start in the top ten and then go 0-5. That is terrible and makes you question Franklin's culture. One loss shouldn't cause a season to go straight in the tank. The Fighting Harboogers, on the other hand, actually found something that works with McNamera and Haskins. The only question is if Harbaugh is smart enough to keep riding them. I think Penn State is broken beyond repair this year. PSU: 14--UM: 28

Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Bama enters the Iron Bowl without their general, but no one will notice.  Something tells me that Sagan has developed a chip to implant into the players so he can coach them remotely and 24/7.  Mac Jones and Co. are a force of nature that lead the pack of National Title favorites (of course, the list of potential winners is about 4...).  What do we (I?) know about Auburn this year? Nothing really.  Roll Dang Tide.  Auburn: 10–Bama: 38
Hoying: Did you know that mighty Alabama, unquestionably the premier team of the New '10s, went a meager 6-4 against Auburn over the last decade? Amazingly, Nick Saban's Tide are a rather pedestrian 8-5 against the Tigers, including a paltry 3-5 when Auburn is ranked. Alabama has been ranked #1 five times going into this game during Saban's tenure, and has 3 wins to show for it. Should we expect another miracle this week? Well, Saban is out with the virus for real this time, so anything's possible.  The Tide have followed up last year's disappointing (11-win, top ten) season with another "Bama by a million" campaign including a pantsing of Texas A&M and a comfortable win over Georgia. QB Mac Jones looks as good as anybody north of the Florida-Georgia border, and RB Najee Harris is a devastating weapon in his own right. Auburn...squeaked out some wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss...I got nothing. I saw the 2013 and 2019 upsets coming, but this time, the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it." Bama by a million. Auburn: 13--Bama: 45

Schweinfurth: No Saban, no problem. Seriously, Auburn is going to get crushed. Bo Nix is going to turn the ball over and Alabama is going to feast. Auburn: 17--Bama: 42

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: Please, please, please don’t drop this game too.  The Buckeyes need these games just to stay on track.  Illinois got a nice little win vs. Nebraska last week, but is there anyone that expects lightning to strike twice.  Indiana may have found the chink in the Buckeye armor (blitz on defense — if you can cover— and play 500 on offense—if you have a good QB), but lucky for the Buckeyes, Illinois has none of those things.  This is a get right game for Fields.  We saw some terrible decision making and execution last week, but it seemed like it was more of a lock on hero-ball, Heisman moments.  Day and Co. will settle the young man down and he, Olive, and Wilson will put on a clinic.  Teague and Sermon will lay the wood when needed, but barring poor weather, I think the coaches will try to reestablish Fields’ confidence.  The defense needs to shore up the secondary (obviously) but I think Coach Coombs will analyze the situation and simplify the scheme.  Even if the Illini can’t attack like Indiana, they need to prepare for the future and fix the communication and execution (Hooker...) issues.  The biggest worry I have going into this one is the COVID scare.  OSU: 58 — Ill: 20
Hoying: Hurrah, the Buckeyes defeated their only regular season top ten opponent and are now in full-on season cleanup mode. Reminds me of a time when a Buckeye team made a run at the title but were upset in the postseason, then followed it up with another impressive string of wins to start the season. Then they played a 3-loss Illinois team, who was quarterbacked by a guy named Isaiah Williams...........oh no...nooooooo...OK, relax. This Illinois team is not exactly 2007's Rose Bowl (lol) squad. They've been using the old quarterback-by-committee offense, and it looks like this week's spin of the wheel points back to former Michigan QB Brandon Peters. You may scoff, but Peters posted a 167.2 QBR against the Buckeyes in The Game Version 2018 in cleanup duty for Shea Patterson while setting up a Michigan TD (1 for 1 for 8 yards). The Illini don't have a lot of weapons and they haven't really scored many points until the floodgates opened against Nebraska last week. The good news is that Illinois did most of its damage on the ground, which Ohio State is pretty good at not allowing to happen. Swirling Champaign winds cut both ways, and even if the Ohio State passing game is a bit nerfed (hopefully not by throwing lobs into the middle of the field while falling down) the same breezes should prevent another fiasco in the Buckeye secondary. The good news is that the Silver Bullets won't see another team that can really put them to the test until the Playoff. The bad news is that we probably won't be able to tell until January what the results of that test will be (unless Michigan throws all over us, then it's time to start praying). OSU: 45--Ill: 20
Schweinfurth: Fix the defense! Look, last week was bad and they took their foot off the gas against Rutgers. Everyone take a breath. They are working on it. There were several miscommunications and  guys not knowing the play call (zone or man). This is a young secondary, and I think Indiana was a wake up call. Look for new rotations in the secondary (more Josh Proctor). On the offensive side of the ball, Fields just needs to settle down and stop forcing the ball. He was clearly trying to win the game with one thrown on every possession last week. The big plays will be there, but every play doesn't have to be a forced ball. This game should be a reset and hopefully not a wind tunnel as we tend to see in Champaign. Bucks bring the Illibuck back to Columbus. OSU: 45--Ill: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Iowa

Hoying: Oregon State over Oregon
Schweinfurth: LSU over TAMU