Standings:
1.) Draper 27-10 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 26-11 (1-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 25-12 (2-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-13 (1-6 upset)
It began with a trip to South Bend. It will end with a trek north to restore the natural order. And nestled snugly into the middle of the season is the Buckeyes' sole opportunity to show out under the scarlet crowd against an elite (or even a competent) opponent. The world revolves around Ohio State once again. Let's get to it.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: After last year's epic back and forth battle, I just don't see this one living up to the hype (but I don't know how you top or match last year). Both teams have major steps down at QB (and pretty much all offensive positions). Tennessee though they had arrived but the Bobby Hill (Josh Heupel) train hasn't struck gold as expected. Despite Milroe's lack of game changing ability, he's actually been fairly efficient at QB this year (2nd most efficient QB in the SEC I believe). I don't trust Joe Milton's 'rocket' arm and being in Tuscaloosa spells R-O-L-L-T-I-D-E. Tenn: 17--Bama: 30
Hoying: Last year, this game would have been the game to the year to date, as the Vols were sort of last year's version of Washington, and Bama was, as it seems, always Bama. Except Bama wasn't quite Bama last season: the run defense didn't work and the pass D crumbled against the better passing teams as well. This year, we're seeing more of an early-Saban Bama, as the defense is knocking on the door of elite while the offense sputters. Of course, Tennessee is nowhere near last year's juggernaut offense either (who could have foreseen that Joe Milton wasn't going to suddenly take a giant leap this offseason?) but they now have the defense that could have taken them to the promised land last year. I still stand by my pick of Texas A&M to trip up Alabama (not so much Ole Miss to do so) but Bama completed just enough clutch passes down the stretch to trip up the Aggies in College Station. I'm not sure they can do so again, even with Milroe much improved from where he was in the Texas game. Part of me still thinks the Tide are going to faceplant at least once more this season but I just don't see Tennessee scoring enough to make it happen this week. Order is restored to the Third Saturday in October. Tenn: 16--Bama: 21
Hoying: Last year, this game would have been the game to the year to date, as the Vols were sort of last year's version of Washington, and Bama was, as it seems, always Bama. Except Bama wasn't quite Bama last season: the run defense didn't work and the pass D crumbled against the better passing teams as well. This year, we're seeing more of an early-Saban Bama, as the defense is knocking on the door of elite while the offense sputters. Of course, Tennessee is nowhere near last year's juggernaut offense either (who could have foreseen that Joe Milton wasn't going to suddenly take a giant leap this offseason?) but they now have the defense that could have taken them to the promised land last year. I still stand by my pick of Texas A&M to trip up Alabama (not so much Ole Miss to do so) but Bama completed just enough clutch passes down the stretch to trip up the Aggies in College Station. I'm not sure they can do so again, even with Milroe much improved from where he was in the Texas game. Part of me still thinks the Tide are going to faceplant at least once more this season but I just don't see Tennessee scoring enough to make it happen this week. Order is restored to the Third Saturday in October. Tenn: 16--Bama: 21
Schweinfurth: The Volunteers have look much different with Joe Milton spinning the ball. The offense has been very touch and go. Sometimes it looks smooth, and other times it looks like they can't get out of their own way. Bama has seemed very similar this year. The deference is that Milroe has started to look more comfortable. This isn't the dominant Bama we are used to, but they should still win this close. Tenn: 20--Bama: 23
Seeberg: For 2023 at least, both of these teams fall into the "good-but-not-great" category. Inconsistencies on offense have plagued both the Vols and Tide which, to be fair, was seen as pretty likely heading into this campaign after losing their primary signal callers (sound familiar Buckeye Nation?). Regardless, the Bama D is still a notch or two above what the orange checkerboards are rolling out, and they should be able to turn Joe Milton over once or twice to get their starting-to-improve offense some extra possessions. Hooker gave the Vols their moment of the decade in this rivalry last year, but things always revert to the mean over time. Tide pull away late. Tenn: 17--Bama: 30
Seeberg: For 2023 at least, both of these teams fall into the "good-but-not-great" category. Inconsistencies on offense have plagued both the Vols and Tide which, to be fair, was seen as pretty likely heading into this campaign after losing their primary signal callers (sound familiar Buckeye Nation?). Regardless, the Bama D is still a notch or two above what the orange checkerboards are rolling out, and they should be able to turn Joe Milton over once or twice to get their starting-to-improve offense some extra possessions. Hooker gave the Vols their moment of the decade in this rivalry last year, but things always revert to the mean over time. Tide pull away late. Tenn: 17--Bama: 30
Duke Blue Devils @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: FSU has to avoid tripping up against a better than most think Duke squad. Granted, Duke is on the radar after the Notre Dame near miss and the Clemson upset, but no Riley Leonard spells bad news for the Devils. If Leonard plays, this could get interesting, but if not, Noles cruise. I'd say the big games we've seen by Elko's squad this year will have the Noles awake and on notice. Keep talkin. Duke: 17--FSU: 27
Hoying: First things first, if Riley Leonard doesn't suit up for Duke, they are toasted. Yes, they won by 3 scores against NC State last week but that was behind the floppy arm of Henry Belin IV, who completed all of 4 of his 12 attempts, albeit with 2 going for TDs. But if it weren't for big plays, Duke would've had no offense at all, as their touchdowns came on a 69 yard pass on a busted coverage, an 83 yard run, and an 8 yard pass immediately following an interception return. The Noles, meanwhile, are humming right along, having just pounded a rapidly fading Syracuse (remember when they were supposed to beat Clemson?). If FSU can get past Duke, they have a nice 5-game regular season denouement into the ACC title game and a likely battle with North Carolina for one of the final 4-team Playoff spots. I don't see the Devils throwing a wrench into those plans. The Duke defense is legit, but Notre Dame was still able to move the ball on them before their standard drive-killing foot shooting, and come through for one last drive when it mattered. This one's a battle for a while but busts open late. Duke: 13--FSU: 27
Hoying: First things first, if Riley Leonard doesn't suit up for Duke, they are toasted. Yes, they won by 3 scores against NC State last week but that was behind the floppy arm of Henry Belin IV, who completed all of 4 of his 12 attempts, albeit with 2 going for TDs. But if it weren't for big plays, Duke would've had no offense at all, as their touchdowns came on a 69 yard pass on a busted coverage, an 83 yard run, and an 8 yard pass immediately following an interception return. The Noles, meanwhile, are humming right along, having just pounded a rapidly fading Syracuse (remember when they were supposed to beat Clemson?). If FSU can get past Duke, they have a nice 5-game regular season denouement into the ACC title game and a likely battle with North Carolina for one of the final 4-team Playoff spots. I don't see the Devils throwing a wrench into those plans. The Duke defense is legit, but Notre Dame was still able to move the ball on them before their standard drive-killing foot shooting, and come through for one last drive when it mattered. This one's a battle for a while but busts open late. Duke: 13--FSU: 27
Schweinfurth: It's too bad this game wasn't a few weeks ago, be fore Riley Leonard got hurt. Duke's offense just isn't the same without him, and for good reason. Florida State is healthier, and most likely the better team. It's just too much for Duke to overcome: Duke: 17--FSU: 35
Seeberg: The Dookies have appeared so often this year I'd swear we're running a basketball blog. Alas, that run may come to an end here. FSU throttled LSU early and has coasted without incident since, save for a pesky Clemson squad. Duke's defense is actually on par with Dabo's unit (amazing to type that with sincerity), but the Blue Devils aren't potent enough on offense to hang around for four quarters. FSU rolls, Chief smiles. Duke: 17--FSU: 28
Seeberg: The Dookies have appeared so often this year I'd swear we're running a basketball blog. Alas, that run may come to an end here. FSU throttled LSU early and has coasted without incident since, save for a pesky Clemson squad. Duke's defense is actually on par with Dabo's unit (amazing to type that with sincerity), but the Blue Devils aren't potent enough on offense to hang around for four quarters. FSU rolls, Chief smiles. Duke: 17--FSU: 28
Utah Utes @ Southern California Trojans
Draper: SC isn't the team we thought due to their total lack of defense and, perhaps more concerning, their atrocious offensive line. Williams is still the #1 overall pick, but last week showed that pressure can cause problems for the Torjans. Kyle Whittingham has had Utah as the standard in the Pac12 for years whether people hear it or not. However, this iteration just isn't the same. While I think the Ute Dline can frustrate SC, I don't think they have the horses that Notre Dame does. I expect the Trojans to emerge victorious and the Utes to continue to prove that Florida just isn't good. Utah: 20--USC: 34
Hoying: Speaking of teams that are hopeless without their starting QB, Cam Rising has yet to play a single snap for the Utes this season. And it shows: Utah is putting up Iowa-esque numbers through the air, and while that has resulted in an Iowa-esque W-L record on the back of an Iowa-esque defense, the Utes haven't seen anything like what Caleb Williams is about to rain down on them. Utah's two big wins this year have been against UCLA's decidedly-not-DTR Dante Moore, and Florida's Graham Mertz. From Wisconsin. The Utes were outgained in both games but made enough big plays on defense to grind out victories. Now you might be saying, "hey wait a minute, didn't one of the teams in this game just outgain their opponent last week but get blown out because of big plays on defense?" Yes, that's true, but Notre Dame had the horses on O to make SC pay after the defense did the dirty work. Utah has struggled to move the ball against anybody this year, and while the Trojan run D is usually good for what ails ya, the Utes just aren't potent enough to take advantage. Utah: 13--USC: 24
Hoying: Speaking of teams that are hopeless without their starting QB, Cam Rising has yet to play a single snap for the Utes this season. And it shows: Utah is putting up Iowa-esque numbers through the air, and while that has resulted in an Iowa-esque W-L record on the back of an Iowa-esque defense, the Utes haven't seen anything like what Caleb Williams is about to rain down on them. Utah's two big wins this year have been against UCLA's decidedly-not-DTR Dante Moore, and Florida's Graham Mertz. From Wisconsin. The Utes were outgained in both games but made enough big plays on defense to grind out victories. Now you might be saying, "hey wait a minute, didn't one of the teams in this game just outgain their opponent last week but get blown out because of big plays on defense?" Yes, that's true, but Notre Dame had the horses on O to make SC pay after the defense did the dirty work. Utah has struggled to move the ball against anybody this year, and while the Trojan run D is usually good for what ails ya, the Utes just aren't potent enough to take advantage. Utah: 13--USC: 24
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame really exposed USC last week. The Trojan defense is exactly what we think of it, horrible. Good news for Trojans, Utah's offence hasn't looked great this year. I fully expect Utah to put up points here. USC can't get their D off the field. Caleb Williams may have lost the Heisman (as of now) this year, but he's still a difference maker. Utah: 28--USC: 31
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of "highly movable object" meets "easily stoppable force". Strength on strength and weakness on eye-gouging weakness in this contest. Utah has absolutely bullied the Trojans for a couple seasons now, but with an impotent offense this year, even a ho-hum day from Caleb Williams is likely enough to get a W against a team that scored a whopping 7 offensive points against the other Rose Bowl home team. Trojans exact a little revenge Utah: 17--USC: 24
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of "highly movable object" meets "easily stoppable force". Strength on strength and weakness on eye-gouging weakness in this contest. Utah has absolutely bullied the Trojans for a couple seasons now, but with an impotent offense this year, even a ho-hum day from Caleb Williams is likely enough to get a W against a team that scored a whopping 7 offensive points against the other Rose Bowl home team. Trojans exact a little revenge Utah: 17--USC: 24
Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: For the first time in a decent number of years, PSU enters the game with (arguably) the stronger QB. While McCord isn't deserving of the crap he's received from Buckeye Nation, he isn't Stroud, Fields, etc. It seems that the years change but the narrative doesn't. 'This is the year Franklin has the horses'; 'OSU is primed to fall from the top'; 'The Lions are the new class of the East'...blah blah blah. The truth is that Penn State is very talented on both sides, but the dirty secret is that OSU is more talented at almost all positions (exception being QB--maybe-- and Oline). If Penn State wants to pull the upset, they need to exploit the advantage with their dline vs the meh OSU Oline. If they can get to McCord early and often AND the stout OSU defense (who has faced teams with a pulse unlike the Lions) reverts to the bust games of years past. I think this will be a knock down drag out fight, but the Silver Bullets do enough to slow the Penn State attack and the run game breaks a few explosives for the Scarlet and Gray. Injuries be darned, let's ride. PSU: 24--OSU: 27
Hoying: If you look at the advanced stats, this game seems to be split right down the middle. Both teams have great defenses. Both have offenses that are a little underwhelming compared to where they'd like to be. The big difference is that Ohio State is battle tested and Penn State is not. Yes, it was one battle, but Kyle McCord has been forced to stare down the home crowd and drive the length of the field in do-or-die time, and Drew Allar has not. You could point to Penn State putting up 31 points against the brick wall that is otherwise Iowa, but that's more a function of being gifted about 500 plays of offense due to the Hawkeyes' inability to hang on to the ball for more than a few seconds at a time against a talented PSU front. And that was at home; the Lions have been a bit...off...on the road this year, turning in a curious first half clunker against Northwestern of all teams, and needing multiple turnovers to pull away from Illinois. I don't trust them to put up a lot of points in the unfriendly confines of Ohio Stadium. That puts the game in the hands of the Ohio State offense, and they will have their work cut out for them. No one defends the pass like Penn State, and while they have been a bit more vulnerable on the ground, are the Bucks going to be able to replicate last week's success against a significantly better run D? Ryan Day better be ready to pull out all the stops in this one: Devin Brown, Dallan Hayden, jump passes, just no more end arounds on 4th-and-1, please. I see this as a knock down drag out rock fight like the mess we all had to suffer through back in 2008, one that could come down to an untimely turnover late. But they ain't called Pick Six University for nothing. Buckeyes take a squeaker. PSU: 13--OSU: 16
Hoying: If you look at the advanced stats, this game seems to be split right down the middle. Both teams have great defenses. Both have offenses that are a little underwhelming compared to where they'd like to be. The big difference is that Ohio State is battle tested and Penn State is not. Yes, it was one battle, but Kyle McCord has been forced to stare down the home crowd and drive the length of the field in do-or-die time, and Drew Allar has not. You could point to Penn State putting up 31 points against the brick wall that is otherwise Iowa, but that's more a function of being gifted about 500 plays of offense due to the Hawkeyes' inability to hang on to the ball for more than a few seconds at a time against a talented PSU front. And that was at home; the Lions have been a bit...off...on the road this year, turning in a curious first half clunker against Northwestern of all teams, and needing multiple turnovers to pull away from Illinois. I don't trust them to put up a lot of points in the unfriendly confines of Ohio Stadium. That puts the game in the hands of the Ohio State offense, and they will have their work cut out for them. No one defends the pass like Penn State, and while they have been a bit more vulnerable on the ground, are the Bucks going to be able to replicate last week's success against a significantly better run D? Ryan Day better be ready to pull out all the stops in this one: Devin Brown, Dallan Hayden, jump passes, just no more end arounds on 4th-and-1, please. I see this as a knock down drag out rock fight like the mess we all had to suffer through back in 2008, one that could come down to an untimely turnover late. But they ain't called Pick Six University for nothing. Buckeyes take a squeaker. PSU: 13--OSU: 16
Schweinfurth: This has the feel of a street fight. Both defenses have played excellent. Ohio State has faced some tough offenses in Notre Dame (hard running team) and Maryland (good passing team) and have passed the test to this point. I am not sold on what Penn State has tried to do on offense. Everything has been short passes and check downs. They haven't tried to stretch the field at all. They may try it here, but they haven't even shown that they trust Aller to throw deep. The Lion's defense will challenge McCord, but he seems to have the coaches' trust to try and make the big play. I really don't see many teams matching up against the Ohio State wide out room. The Buckeyes have been tested and know how to win these types of games. Penn State hasn't been tested yet, and this is a rough one to dive in head first. Bucks win in a close one. PSU: 10--OSU: 17
Seeberg: Oh boy. I've seen this game broken down every which way all week. I...am not enthusiastic. I actually watched the "game winning drive" Kyle McCord engineered against ND on my lunch break today. A slew of poorly located balls, a near-INT, a grounding call (lousy, in fairness). Two good darts to Emeka down the seam and that was about it honestly. Took 15 plays to go 65 yards. Fifteen plays would've been three TDs last year in all likelihood. On the bright side, the defense is sneaking closer to regaining that mythical Silver Bullets moniker we all enjoy. Explosive plays are gone- and Penn State, oddly, doesn't create them anyway. I've heard good analysts say that's a huge edge for the Buckeyes but I don't know. Penn State is built to dink and dunk and move the ball between the 20s and Ohio State is built to let you do just that. Yardage may be easy for them to come by. Believe it or not, until Notre Dame's very last series of the game, Ohio State hadn't produced a single negative play on defense. Not one. If the Lions stay on schedule they will move the ball, and because James Franklin, a notoriously lousy coach in these moments, is just that, he will kick field goals when the analytics say GO- and if Freeman had done that the Irish may have been smiling last month. Add to that the uncertainty of no less than 4 key contributors (Burke and Egbuka the most important in my opinion) and I like almost nothing about this game other than it's in Columbus. Is Penn State's defense for real? Even having faced putrid offenses and whatever Iowa claims to be rolling out, it's still a defense comparable to Notre Dame, and at full strength we managed one big Henderson run (questionable availability), a FG and a couple of seam throws to Egbuka (also questionable). Last week, every game that I picked as a one-possession game went the opposite way. I sure hope that happens here, but I just don't know. Pains me to even type it, but the Lions assert themselves as the best non-cheating program in the B1G East. PSU: 19--OSU: 17
Seeberg: Oh boy. I've seen this game broken down every which way all week. I...am not enthusiastic. I actually watched the "game winning drive" Kyle McCord engineered against ND on my lunch break today. A slew of poorly located balls, a near-INT, a grounding call (lousy, in fairness). Two good darts to Emeka down the seam and that was about it honestly. Took 15 plays to go 65 yards. Fifteen plays would've been three TDs last year in all likelihood. On the bright side, the defense is sneaking closer to regaining that mythical Silver Bullets moniker we all enjoy. Explosive plays are gone- and Penn State, oddly, doesn't create them anyway. I've heard good analysts say that's a huge edge for the Buckeyes but I don't know. Penn State is built to dink and dunk and move the ball between the 20s and Ohio State is built to let you do just that. Yardage may be easy for them to come by. Believe it or not, until Notre Dame's very last series of the game, Ohio State hadn't produced a single negative play on defense. Not one. If the Lions stay on schedule they will move the ball, and because James Franklin, a notoriously lousy coach in these moments, is just that, he will kick field goals when the analytics say GO- and if Freeman had done that the Irish may have been smiling last month. Add to that the uncertainty of no less than 4 key contributors (Burke and Egbuka the most important in my opinion) and I like almost nothing about this game other than it's in Columbus. Is Penn State's defense for real? Even having faced putrid offenses and whatever Iowa claims to be rolling out, it's still a defense comparable to Notre Dame, and at full strength we managed one big Henderson run (questionable availability), a FG and a couple of seam throws to Egbuka (also questionable). Last week, every game that I picked as a one-possession game went the opposite way. I sure hope that happens here, but I just don't know. Pains me to even type it, but the Lions assert themselves as the best non-cheating program in the B1G East. PSU: 19--OSU: 17
Upset Special
Draper: Stanford over UCLA
Hoying: Minnesota over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Washington St. over Oregon
Seeberg: UCF over Oklahoma
