Friday, October 04, 2019

Week 6: Spartan Swill

Standings:
1.) Hoying 15-2 (2-3 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 15-2 (1-4 upset)
1.) Seeberg 15-2 (1-4 upset)
4.) Draper 14-3 (1-4 upset)


Ah, back to the friendly confines on the banks of the Olentangy. Where the Buckeyes win by 45 points per game instead of 41. 

Auburn Tigers @ Florida Gators
Draper: Look, I've been to the Swamp when the Gators are highly ranked and good and it is among the toughest places in the country to play.  The 2019 Gators are highly ranked...moving on.  I see a monster talent disparity in this game on the offensive side with Bo Nix leading Auburn to far better things than we expected.  This game may feature 2 of the best defensive lines outside of Columbus, OH.  The difference will be Malzahn and the Tiger offense.  There will be enough creativity and speed to keep Florida off balance while the Gator offense struggles to mount a comeback.  The Swamp makes it closer than expected...but not much.  Aub: 27 -- UF:17
Hoying: What's going on at Florida? They lost their only good non-suspended-for-PEDs quarterback since Tim Tebow and their offense got...better? Yes, their backup QB has seemed up to the Trask in leading a big comeback against Kentucky and dismantling Tennessee and Towson. Now he gets a bit stiffer challenge. The Tigers have looked pretty sharp on both sides of the ball, and while freshman QB Bo Nix isn't wowing anyone with his 7.8 YPA, he's done a fine job (at least since Oregon) of getting out of the way of a formidable Auburn rushing attack. I really want Florida to win this game because I want to play them (and crush them) in the Playoff, but I think their quick start hits a speed bump (good thing they play in the conference of third chances). Aub: 20--Fla: 17
Schweinfurth: So this will be fun. Two teams who are rated pretty highly just because. Auburn is that team that finds a way to win games and looks like poo. Florida just looks like poo. Bo Nix seems to be at least competent running the Tiger offense. I just haven't seen it from Florida. Auburn wins but this is going to be painfully laughable. Aub: 21--UF: 20
Seeberg:  Not gonna do a ton of analysis here.  Quite frankly I don't trust any second-tier SEC teams, but at least Auburn has beaten a couple of decent teams and seems to be solid on both sides of the ball where as Florida, well, offense isn't exactly their thing.  The hostile environment might keep them at bay for awhile but I expect the Tigers to come through this one.  Aub: 24--Fla: 13

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: Now that Michigan has been exposed for the mediocre mess they've been for years, this is the time where they usually provide a snippet of hope for the Maize and Blue faithful.  Is Iowa good? I don't know, but I don't really think so.  I'm expecting another 9-3 campaign for the Hawks that Kirk Ferentz is known for.  While Harbaugh is beginning to feel a little heat (no, shutting out Rutgers doesn't help), these are the games he usually wins back the hearts and minds of the Wolverine faithful.  I'm feeling a game in which UM inexplicably has success on the offensive side and wins comfortably.  Iowa: 13 -- UM: 24
Hoying: Here lies Rutgers. He never scored...against either of these teams. Good for what ails ya, but did last week's dominating win over the Scarlet Knights set the Wolverines back on track or just provide one last gasp of hope before the season totally implodes? The key to this game will be what happens when Iowa has the ball. We know Michigan's offense is lost, frightened, and confused (good) and that they don't really have much hope against another stout Iowa defense. But the Wisconsin game also showed us that the Wolverine defense is bad. Like, almost hopeless against any team that can line up and smash you in the mouth, especially if they have a speedy running back (do we know any teams like that?). This does not describe Iowa. Against Iowa State, the only team they played with a pulse (other than the fearsome Miami RedHawks), the Hawkeyes churned out a whopping 112 yards rushing in a game that featured a literal punt to win. This one is going to be ugly, and not just because it's in Ann Arbor. But I'd be a fool to trust Iowa on the road. Iowa: 13--UM: 16
Schweinfurth: So TTUN is a mess (but look at that shiny win against Buttgers!) and Iowa is a huge question mark. The last time the Fighting Harbugers lined up against a competent team they got smoked by the Badgers. It's funny to think that they still believe Patterson is the answer. Unfortunately, the Wolverines are the more talented team. Don't get me wrong, I think Iowa will move the ball. I just don't think Iowa will get the ball in the end zone. This one, too, will be painfully laughable. Iowa: 12--UM: 14
Seeberg:  What's funny about this matchup is that the team-who-must-not-be-named is probably riding inexcusably high after dismantling B1G doormat Rutgers last week.  Meanwhile, Iowa trots along undefeated, thanks mostly to a weak schedule and a narrow escape to retain the CyHawk (it's like a mohawk but, you know, uglier).  That said, it's not as if the maize and blue have beaten anybody of consequence either.  Wisconsin's O-line bullied Harbaugh's boys for four quarters, and although Iowa doesn't have an RB anywhere near the caliber of Taylor, there should still be some holes to find.  The Wolverines, however, typically find a way to stay relevant until November, so it's tough to piece this one together.  Do you trust Shea Patterson in a close game?  Yeah, me neither.  Ferentz ramps up another B1G Coach of the Year campaign with a "big" road win.  Iowa: 24--UM: 16

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeyes have been an absolute juggernaut thus far, and there is no reason to expect anything different.  Dantonio has been a habitual thorn in Urban's side, but Urban's not here any more.  Lewerke in the green and white has been the habitual 'eh' while the running game is nothing special.  On the other side, the Bullets seem to be on their way back with absolutely stellar D-line and cornerback play (albeit a few blips in the secondary).  Now, the Buckeye offense has thus far been an enigma for opposing defenses and I can't imagine that a hyped up stadium, at night, in black (GROSS) will lead to anything but Sparty NOOOO!  Fields continues his Heisman run with 4 total TDs while Dobbins and Teague add another 2.  Keep watching the most underrated part of this Buckeye offense.  The WRs are exceptional and only continue to grow.  Bucks big.  MSU: 17 -- OSU: 48
Hoying: I've been a pretty avid Buckeye fan for about 20 years now, and I'm having trouble remembering a team starting as hot as this 2019 squad. The 2016 team that blew out Oklahoma on the road? The 2007 team that skated backwards through their schedule until Juice Williams started stringing 10-minute touchdown drives together? The 2006 team that throttled Colt McCoy and Texas in DKR and returned two pick-sixes against Penn State? Honestly, I'd take this team, at this point, against any of those (which is good, because they all went to the championship and lost). This year's crew seems to be without any glaring weaknesses, with the possible exception of secondary. It's night and Day better than the last couple of years, but a few timely penalties and turnovers have bailed them out and made this defense look a bit more impermeable than it actually is. And as those 2006 and 2016 teams could tell you, living off of turnovers is great until it's not (hello, 41-14 and 31-0). Why am I talking about all of this instead of the game at hand? Because on paper this matchup against the Spartans is a laugher. Michigan State is ranked #25 and they're getting 20 points in Vegas right now. On paper, every game the Buckeyes have left is a laugher, with the possible exception of Wisconsin (though Northwestern may have exposed their offense a bit). This team doesn't play another road game of import until you-know-who Thanksgiving week. Ryan Day continues a great Buckeye tradition of first year coaches starting red hot, and the backups get another half's worth of action. MSU: 10--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: Welcome to your nightmare. An monster of an Ohio State team going up against an overmatched Michigan State team in Ohio Stadium. This has never happened before...Oops, my brain erased 1998 and 2015. That's not the nightmare I'm talking about though. That nightmare would be these all black uniforms. Gross. Speaking of nightmare, last time I checked, Lewerke is a statue in the pocket and here comes Chase Young. It's only a matter of time before a QB is turned into red mist by a Young sack. Let's get real here. MSU's offense is just bad and the Silver Bullets are just breaking teams' will to play. The Spartan D will be the biggest test for Fields and Co. MSU may hang for a quarter or more while the offense gets the feel of how to handle Dino's D. Fields may even throw his first pick, but it won't matter. The Bucks are playing too well, and MSU can't handle the size of the Buckeye receivers. MSU: 13--OSU: 42
Seeberg:  And here we are, facing the NEW team from up north that's a thorn in the Buckeyes' side.  Those of us who grew up during the Cooper years (that would be everybody at Let's Go Bucks, in case you were curious) will always have a twinge of worry about the final regular game of the season because of their maddening ability to defeat Buckeye squads with often superior talent.  MSU has taken that mantle in the last decade, however, winning ugly (17-14, 10-7 ring a bell?) and often against our beloved Scarlet and Gray.  The last two seasons may have shown a shift in this trend.  MSU hasn't found the endzone since 2016, getting thumped 48-3 in 2017 and then inexplicably 26-6 at their place last year despite our defense doing frequent disappearing acts.  Meanwhile- and this stat is flat-out stunning- Ohio state has amassed a whopping 109 touchdown PASSES since the start of 2017, good for  *checks notes*  #1 in all of college football.  If you had told me any 2.5-year stretch of OSU stats would be #1 in touchdown passes at any point in my lifetime I would've checked you into an asylum, yet here we are.  Meanwhile, this year's iteration of the Buckeyes is absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball and MSU is down at least 3 starting offensive linemen.  Quite honestly it'd be a minor shock if they found the endzone this season as well.  Enjoy the black out everybody.  MSU: 6--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Texas
Hoying: Cincinnati over Central Florida
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.
Seeberg: Cal over Oregon