Week 14: Ok. Cool. Hook Em!

Standings:
1.) Draper 41-14 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 38-17 (2-11 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 34-21 (5-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 33-22 (3-10 upset)

"Who is Number One?"
"You are Number Six."
"I am not a number. I am a free man!"

- The Prisoner

We all know who Number One is (by a million) but the Buckeyes find themselves at Number Six, with one week to go and only one team ahead guaranteed to lose. Come Sunday morning, all of college football nation will be looking to the Committee for information and speculating about whose side they're on (but that would be telling), and no matter how desperately the teams in the playoff hunt want one of those four coveted spots, at least one of them won't get it. Let's hope that by hook or by crook, the Buckeyes will.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: #17 Utah Utes vs. #11 Washington Huskies
Draper:  The Pac12 has been a dumpster fire of mediocrity.  Out of the fire has emerged the preseason favorite Huskies in a very odd and unsuspected return to the top.  No real reason to think the Utes will take care of the heavily favored Huskies in their 1st Pac12 Championship appearance (surprising that this is the first rodeo for Utah).  Jake Browning has at least one massive brainfart a game, but that won't be enough to keep the Huskies from a Rose Bowl berth.  UU: 13--UW: 30
Hoying: Last year, conference championship weekend pitted 7 of the top 8 teams against each other in 4 huge battles (also TCU was there), while the Pac-12 was off in the corner eating paint chips. This year it's even worse; neither of these teams is sniffing a playoff spot, and more disgustingly, it's a rematch! Time to break out the How Pointless? meter once again, wherein I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is.
How Pointless? As pointless as last year, which is to say, Super Pointless. Washington smooshed Utah back in September and went on to finish a game ahead of the Utes in conference record while playing in the much tougher division. The first time these teams met, Washington RB Myles Gaskin ran wild, and after seeing him blitz WSU in the blizzard last week, I'd expect him to do it again. UU: 17--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: I really haven't watched a lot of Pac-12 games this year because having two kids 3 and under plus "Pac-12 After Dark" is a really bad mix. With that said, I have tried to pay attention mostly because of what Washington State was trying to pull off. The Huskies put an end to that in Pullman last week. Look, Utah is a pretty good team that has been boosted by playing in a really crappy division. Washington was supposed to be a playoff team again. With that in mind I'll take the Huskies. UU: 13--UW: 35
Seeberg: Wait, Utah is in the top 20?  Definitely missed that.  In any event, it's been an odd year for the Huskies, as most would say they have underachieved, a rare feat for any Chris Petersen squad.  They did manage to salvage their season by beating their in-state rivals in the Apple Cup Blizzard Bowl last week.  Most teams' primary goal is to win their conference, however, and that goal is still squarely in sight.  Though roughly 156% pointless when it comes to the playoff, it's still a game worth winning, and I expect the Huskies to play like it.  UU: 20--UW: 34


SATURDAY  


Big 12: #14 Texas Longhorns vs. #5 Oklahoma Sooners
Draper:  Let's be honest, this is the only real game that a)matters and b) people expect a competitive game.  Rematches usually favor the team that lost the first matchup so point Sooners.  I have seen the Sooners in a few of their recent games.  Their offense is incredibly dynamic but MAN does that defense suck.  Texas isn't much different (see Big 12).  Honestly, it will likely be another Red River Shootout (fine me, Big12) and that's likely going to favor the Sooners offense even though the Longhorns pulled out the last second win with Dicker the Kicker. I'll be rooting hard for the burnt orange but I think they come up just short after breaking all the scoreboards in Jerry World. Murray cements his Heisman runner-up status and the Sooners keep their hopes alive (to be crushed by Bama).  UT: 48--OU: 55
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately pointless by Big 12 standards. The Big 12 championship game will always be pointless since the conference plays a complete round robin (the only way it wouldn't be pointless would be another round robin of 3 or more teams tied at the top) but at least this year is interesting in that the team with the better record lost to the other team. It's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season (stupid 1976 Rose Bowl) and reeeallly hard to upset the same team twice in one season. Texas didn't really outplay OU the first time; they got the lucky bounces and, to their credit, made the most of them. That being said, all the pressure is, once again, on the team in crimson. Texas is ahead of schedule, and a win vs. a loss is nothing from a bowl placement perspective: they're going to the Sugar Bowl either way (unless Oklahoma somehow wins and misses the Playoff). A Big 12 title and a win over your hated rival isn't nothing, but Oklahoma will have one eye over their shoulder at the charging Buckeyes and the rest of hell that could break loose should the Longhorns prevail. I am loath to pick against Texas Tom in any big games, as the Horns always overperform in these situations, but Oklahoma is just too dang unstoppable on offense to drop two games to Texas in one season. On to Miami. UT: 41--OU: 45
Schweinfurth: I am so conflicted by this one. Oklahoma can put up points in bunches, but good lord that defense is hard to watch. I saw a stat from Max Olson of the Athletic that has Oklahoma 113th(!) in stop rate (% of defensive stop that allow 0 points) allowing 2.67 points per possession. Let that sink in, Oklahoma allows almost a field goal every possession. That is just horrendous and it has gotten worse since the Sooners fired Mike Stoops. The problem here is that it is very hard to beat a team, especially a rival) twice in the same year. I can see Texas winning this game because of Oklahoma's D being that bad. The points the Sooners put up are just too much. Take the over on this game (it's only 77 and that could just be the first half). UT: 56--OU: 63
Seeberg: Rams vs. Chiefs, part III, or Red River Rivalry, part II, take your pick.  The beer and points will flow heavily in this one.  Lost in the Buckeyes' search for the playoffs again is that it will take a Herculean offensive effort from a Tom-Herman-led squad to pull it off.  Sadly, even hanging half a hundred on the Sooners may not be enough, as Kyler Murray has hit a groove, feeling more comfortable on the big stage seemingly with every passing week.  I'd like to think the pressure of this one will get to him, but you just know OU will be razor-sharp (at least on the one side of the ball at which they're competent) against their rival- a rival responsible for the only blemish on their schedule.  Enjoy the points, bemoan the victor.  UT: 45--OU: 52

SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #4 Georgia Bulldogs
Draper:  While UGA had a nice season in the trash SEC East, they lost to their one big cross division opponent (and got slaughtered).  Bama on the other hand, shut out the team that destroyed UGA...uh oh. I watched a little more Bama in the Iron Bowl and my opinion hasn't changed.  They are heads and tails above the pack right now, and that includes Georgia.  Why haven't we heard much about Georgia recently? They've played 1 team that anyone cares about (sorry Florida and Kentucky) and they were blown out.  Roll Tide.  Bama: 48--UGA: 24
Hoying: How Pointless? Low. The Tide have a better record, and beat the team that beat Georgia, but the Dawgs played a tougher schedule, and yes, even arguably in the tougher division with the resurgence of Florida and the surgence of Kentucky in the East. Since losing to LSU, Georgia has gone on a tear (excepting a bit of a slow start against Auburn), riding a balanced offense and a very good defense to the doorstep of the playoff. It's going to be a shame when they lose by a million. Bama: 42--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: Georgia can totally screw everything up for the committee and this isn't the Mark Richt coached Dawgs. They can actually win big games. The problem is the self-aware terminator that Bama has been this season. Georgia does have a chance...if Tua's leg explodes (it has been close a couple of times). Bama is better and this is just an appetizer before it gets to devour the 4 seed in the playoffs. Poor Dawg. Bama: 45--UGA: 13
Seeberg: Bama by a million.  Sadly for the Dawgs, a solid case can be made that they are one of the best four teams in the country, but it won't matter with a second tally in the L column after this one.  Do we (Ohio State, that is) want Bama?  Absolutely not.  But it's who we'll get if things break our way.  Yay?  Bama: 38--UGA: 17

ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper:  Wheee....another 'who cares, Clemson is gonna roll game'. Most advanced metrics are lauding Clemson as being on the same level as Bama and I scoff at that, but they are certainly in the upper echelon.  The rest of the ACC on the other hand....is not.  The SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten all have some semi-relevance this year but the Pac 12 and ACC have been crap and Clemson respectively.  No reason to think Sunshine will do anything but wreck the Panthers on their way to a 2 seed.  The defensive line is too good and Pitt is bad (put Pitt in?).  This will be done by halftime, but Dabo's backups will keep chugging.  Clem: 55--Pitt: 23
Hoying: How Pointless? If this is the price of keeping as many ACC Coastal teams as far away from Clemson as possible during the regular season, a 12-0 vs. 7-5 conference championship is A-OK in my book. I mean, what is there to honestly say about this game? Pitt is not a great team. They're not even a good team. Their best game this year was holding Notre Dame to 2 field goals in the first half and then watching the game inevitable slip away from them (thanks for nothing). If Clemsoning still existed then we would be at DEFCON One for it to make its appearance in this game, but I wouldn't hold your breath for this one. Just look away; the Buckeyes are playing at the same time. Clem: 48--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know how much there is really to say about this game. Clemson has rolled through the ACC for the most part and this should be ugly. Clemson, big. Clem: 42--Pitt: 14
Seeberg: Woof.  Scary that a division champion in a power 5 conference can get to a title game unranked.  If a power 5 title game had to be at the same time as the Bucks' I'm glad it's this stinker.  I'm still not 100% sold on the 2018 version of Clemson, with a bunch of meh wins (albeit with no losses), and a win over a 7-5 Pitt team isn't going to change that. Regardless, that victory is all but inevitable as the Tigers yawn their way into the playoff again.  Clem: 41--Pitt: 17

Mountain West: #25 Fresno State Bulldogs @ #22 Boise State Broncos (Nothing like a little palate cleanser before the main course.)
Draper:  Didn't we see this before? Boise has been sneaking around the chicken coop in the Mountain West letting Utah State soak up some love from the 15 people that actually watch Mountain West football until crushing their hopes and dreams last week and knocking them out of their conference championship.  Now, the Bulldogs hope to return to the glory years of the late 1900s when they were the scrappy little school that was good...until Boise took over.  Sorry.  Boise is the captain now, and will remain so.  FSU: 20--BSU: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Arrrrrggggghhhh. Not this AGAAAAIIIIN. Not only is this the same matchup as last year's Mountain West championship, these teams JUST PLAYED 3 weeks ago. Seriously, Utah State, with all the love you were getting, you couldn't come through on the blue turf last week when it really counted? I didn't believe in the Broncos last week, to my detriment, so I'll ride with them to take two from the Bulldogs this year. FSU: 21--BSU: 24
Schweinfurth: This game feels like Groundhog's Day. Over and over and over and over and...I haven't spent any time even looking at the Mountain West this year because, meh. Broncos I guess? FSU: 14--BSU: 17
Seeberg: I was on the Boise State train for years and, like my colleague Hoying, lost belief in them only for them to rise up and disallow the Aggies from supplanting them atop the Mountain (West).  If USU couldn't do it, I don't expect Fresno State to either.  Broncos pull through another close one.  FSU: 17--BSU: 24

B1G: #21 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #6 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper:  Ok. Everyone is expecting the Buckeyes to wallop the Wildcats on their way to another B1G championship, but I'm not so sure it will be that easy.  While the Buckeye offense SHOULD (read: should) make mincemeat our of the purple cats, the defense is build to beat power teams (like TTUN) than it is to beat the 'scrappy gym rat' type teams.  The problem is that Fitzgerald squad is the definition of scrappy. What makes the difference is that this Buckeye team got a taste of what it could be last week, and they know what's in front of them.  They won't come out with the same intensity as the Michigan game, but I think it will be surprisingly close.  The key for me is the same (and this is what led to the blow out last week): get going early.  For the eh....8 or so weeks before the Michigan game, the team looked like poo and fell behind early giving the other team hope.  End the hope for Cinderella early and it's goodnight sweetheart.  Honestly, I see the Bucks with the potential to break the scoreboard here, but how long can Northwestern hang? Depends on if the tone is set.  If so, it will be done in the first half.  If not, hold on for another Big 12 Title game.  I think the Bucks get right, go fast, and take control to cruise to a nice win....but not enough for the playoff unless someone falters.  OSU: 55--NW: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Not at all, really. Despite the difference in overall records, these two come in with identical 8-1 conference records and didn't play each other during the season. Remember when I said I was terrified of the Purdue game, and it turned out I wasn't quite frightened enough? I don't get that feeling at all for this one. Northwestern runs the same plodding boring offense that Michigan does, only with far worse talent. And they have trouble protecting the quarterback (giving up 29 sacks so far). The defense is good, I guess, but super banged up (even worse than Ohio State), and their DBs don't have the speed to do anything resembling hanging with Zone Six. My only concern is where this Buckeye team's heads are at. They've shown the ability to play down to anyone (well, not Rutgers (Northwestern did though)), but whenever they find themselves in an underdog role they play out of their minds. They are most certainly not in that role this Saturday, unless they can tap into the "we need to crush these guys to make a playoff statement" mentality. That didn't work so well last year (a 6 point win against a slooooowwww Wisconsin team). It did work in 2014, but again, Ohio State was actually an underdog in that one. Don't expect a repeat of The Game, but that's what makes The Game, special, you know? An annual Happy Thanksgiving present to our favorite khaki'd turkey. NU: 20--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This has the feeling of 2014 all over again. The Bucks seemingly need a miracle to make the playoffs behind a cannon armed QB. Okay, Haskins isn't the third string QB, he's much, much better. I feel like this is a great match up for Ohio State. Northwestern is a very good team, but they just don't have the athletes to match up with the speed the Bucks have on the outside. I could realistically see Olave playing the Devin Smith role Saturday and just blow by the 'Cats' secondary. You just get the feeling that Ohio State turned the dial up to 11 last week. Is it sustainable, well they have the talent to keep it rolling. The Bucks have to at least cover, and I think they will. Let's get that second straight B1G title! NU: 10--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Well guys, we need 59-0 again...but sadly it ain't gonna happen.  NW has an uncanny knack to play EVERYONE close.  Up 17-0 before choking away a win against TTUN, yet they only beat Rutgers by 3.  Yes, unfortunately you read that right.  The Big Ten West champions ONLY BEAT RUTGERS BY THREE BLEEPING POINTS.  Winning this game with myriad style points seems within reach, but I just don't see it.  Fitzgerald is more willing/able to employ at least a handful of plays with some imagination, unlike last week's supposed offensive genius/QB guru/all-around absolute wacko Jim Harbaugh.  The Bucks should be able to play with a reasonable amount of game control, using a suddenly proficient run game to take some of the load off of the Dwayne Train.  But a couple of big plays keep the Wildcats in it into the 2nd half before the speed of Ohio State puts it away late.  Go Bucks, onto...the playoffs?  Cue the Jim Mora rant.  NU: 28--OSU: 41


Upset Special
Draper: Marshall over Virginia Tech
Hoying: Memphis over UCF
Schweinfurth: Not a lot to pick from so Cal over Stanford
Seeberg:  Louisiana over App State

Bonus:
MAC: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls
How Pointless? Low-to-moderate. This isn't a rematch, but the Bulls have a 1 game lead in conference record, and, unlike Northern Illinois (and Northwestern) didn't lose 3 games out of conference.
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
How Pointless? Super pointless. App State beat the Cajuns by double digits on their way to a 2-game lead in conference. Yawn.
C-USA: UAB Blazers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
How Pointless? Quite pointless. These teams played LAST WEEK, and Middle Tennessee crushed the Blazers. It is fun to see UAB's quick ascendancy after their football program was literally canceled and resurrected in the last 5 years.
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
How Pointless? As Peak Pointless as you can get outside of the Big 12. Not only did these guys play already this season, but UCF finished a full 3 games in conference ahead of the Tigers. And these teams played twice last year and UCF won twice. This is becoming Boise State / Fresno State level annoying.

Grading the Bucks: Week 13 -- TTUN

That's the stuff....stick it in my veins

Offense: A
MVP: Dwayne Haskins, QB
What. A. Performance!  I knew our offense was capable of great things, but the wolverine defense has been great all year.  That didn't stop Heisman Trophy finalist (I'd assume), Dwayne Haskins, from making mincemeat out of Don Brown's defense.  The major surprise from the game was the offensive line that was just spectacular given the circumstances.  Winovich and Gary were quiet all day which is a testament to much (MUCH) improved play by the Big Uglies.  Welcome to the party, Chris Olave and have yourself a game.  Mike Weber had a quiet 96 yards on the ground which went somewhat unnoticed but was a huge accomplishment.  Honestly, the drive of the game was the FG added just before half (should have been 6, but important nonetheless).  After allowing Michigan to pull within 2 just to a gaffe of epic proportions, the Bucks drove down the field in about 40 seconds to score points in the waning seconds of the half.  Talk about stabilizing the momentum shift.  An enormous series. 6 passing TDs and 62 points against the country's number 1 defense? I'll take it.

Defense: B
MVP: Malik Harrison, LB
The defense gave up 39 points but played very well (most of those points came in garbage time--i.e., the latter 2/3 of the game).  Chase Young played well, but there wasn't a great deal of pressure on Shea Patterson most of the game.  The star of the defense was Malik Harrison who was phenomenal making tackles all over the field.  It was a welcome change to see the linebackers step up in a HUGE game.  Even the secondary stepped up (Sheffield was burned on 2 amazing catches where you just tip your cap and move on).  The reason for the defensive resurgence was more due to the Wolverines style of play (1950s football) than to turning a corner on defense, but I'll take it.  The Bullets of 2018 are designed to stop a power running attack and attack short passing routes which made this game a walk.  The problems come against spread offenses with 5 foot tall burners (see Purdue, Maryland, everyone else).  Northwestern might prove a little sneaky next week because power team they are not.

Special Teams: ??
MVP: Chris Olave, WR
The unit with the biggest crap yourself play (Demario McCall's fumble on the kickoff) and nearly sealing the deal (blocked punt for TD).  The fumble could have gone down in history as the biggest bonehead play in the history of the rivalry.  While Michigan was being absolutely dominated in the first half, they were able to pull within 2 with less than a minute to go based on a ridiculous mistake.  The punt block set all right and saved this unit from ignominy.  I don't know how to grade a unit with the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows, but here we are.

Coaching: B+
The coaches finally worked up a scheme.  Maybe it was the last 5-10 weeks in which we looked clueless all coming to a head, but the team was ready to go.  I watched the UM/IU game and saw the Wolverines get destroyed on the crossing routes as well as every pass in the middle of the field.  The coaches made the adjustment and exploited the weakness.  Somehow they got the linebackers anticipating the plays (correctly) and forced some discipline.  Somehow the better athletes looked like...the better athletes.  Amazing what a little work from the coaching staff can accomplish.  I was really excited to see the Tate Martell package and...oops.  This was the part of the plan that didn't work at all.  They needed to read the room after the initial failure (no one believes he'll pass....maybe try it?).  When the Martell package stalled on first attempt and Haskins is cookin', maybe it's time to put that away for the remainder of the game and fix it before rolling it back out.  The second appearance of Martell was just sad, and I felt for Tate as I think this could be used effectively (later this year even), but not on last Saturday.  Michigan is sound in the QB run defense and wasn't having anything to do with him.

Overall: A
The defense still gave up a ton, but a dominant win over Michigan always gets an A.  As I tweeted, the best part about this win was that they REALLY believed it was their year.  They truly thought the years of punishment were at an end...and we smacked them, gave them a swirly, and sent them packing.  The fans are starting to question if they'll ever win again....I hope not.

GO OHIO! BEAT THE WILDCATS!

The Alabama Problem, and Other Playoff Issues

It just wouldn't be the College Football Playoff without Ohio State being somewhere near the conversation, would it? We've been doing this for 4 years and the Buckeyes have never finished higher than #3 or lower than #7, and it looks like a win over Northwestern would guarantee them a spot squarely within that range again.

But where? And why is the ceiling at #3 and not #2? After all, only Notre Dame is undefeated and virtually guaranteed a spot at this point. How does Ohio State really stack up against the other potential one-loss teams? Let's take a deeper dive.

FIRST TOTALLY STUPID AND OBVIOUS POINT

Undefeated Alabama and Clemson are obviously #1 and #2 in some order. Undefeated, win your P5 conference, you're in at the top (sorry, 2014 Florida State, these guys have style points out the wazoo (sorry sorry, WSU) which the Committee thinks matters for some reason).

But suppose Georgia, Pitt, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all win this weekend. That puts Notre Dame at an easy #1 but how should #'s 2 through 6 be apportioned among Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma?

WHOM DID YOU PLAY AND WHOM DID YOU BEAT

You know our philosophy here at Let's Go Bucks! We grade on resume first and go to the dreaded "I test" when all other metrics have failed us. With that in mind, let's do a blind resume comparison (the order is randomized, and please pretend you can't figure who they are right away), keeping in mind the aforementioned 5 teams would all be 12-1.

(note: some liberties were taken in assuming no other upsets occur next week in order to finalize opponents' records)

TEAM A
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 83-74

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: Close road win against 3-loss Power 5 team

Loss: Close loss to 4-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM B
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 84-61

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: At home against 3-loss Power 5 team (2 of these, one close, one blowout)

Loss: To 5-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM C
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 75-82

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: At home blowout win against 2-loss Power 5 team (this team also has a close road win over a 3-loss Power 5 team)

Loss: Blowout loss to 6-6 Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM D
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 91-54

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: Neutral site win against 1-loss Power 5 team (this team also has blowout home and road wins against 3-loss Power 5 teams)

Loss: Blowout loss to 3-loss Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM E
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 81-64

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 7

Best win: Road blowout win against 3-loss Power 5 team (3 home blowout wins against 4-loss Power 5 teams as well)

Loss: To 1-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

Team D is clearly out in front by themselves, so we'll put them at #2. That leaves teams A, B, C, and E to fight it out for the #3 and #4 rankings and the final playoff spots. Each has a healthy number of wins over bowl-eligible teams (although look at Team C's opponent win-loss; they must have played some craaaaaap along the way). What's better: beating a 2-loss team at home or a 3-loss team on the road? Probably the former, but not by a whole lot. Team C has one of each; Team B has none of either but two good home wins. Team E has the best loss, but they're not a conference champion, and their resume isn't strong enough to overcome such a glaring weakness. Let's pencil them in at #6. Non-champion Team B really isn't much better; they don't have a signature win or a good road win, so they go to #5.

That puts Teams A and C in the Playoff. Who gets to be #3? That depends on what's better: a more respectable loss or better top wins. Were this March Madness, the Committee would point out that you're not going to see any more garbage teams at this point; you're going to see the top dogs, so we'd better know you can beat them. But this isn't college basketball. Every game matters immensely, and you can't wish away your weakest performance. Oh, and margin of victory won't help you here, either. Team A is winning by 17.4 ppg, Team C by 17.5. They both played one common opponent, with Team A winning by 25 on the road and Team C winning by 12 at a neutral site. I'd probably give a slight nod to Team C, but I could easily go either way. 

In case these teams' identities aren't painfully obvious by now, the foregoing analysis gives us the following playoff rankings:

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

THE ALABAMA (AND CLEMSON) PROBLEM

As you noticed above, if every possible 1-loss team ends up in the hunt for the Playoff this weekend, I would put Alabama and Clemson at the bottom of the list. Why? Simple. They would be the only ones without a conference championship, and the rest of their resume would not support them jumping a conference champion. Yes, Alabama would have the best loss (unless Georgia beat them by 50 or something). Yes, Clemson would have wins over 9 bowl eligible teams. But neither would have the best win among the 1-loss teams. The only other thing Alabama has going for it at this point, the factor driving them merrily along at #1 all season, is this aura of invincibility from blowing out everyone they've played. The funny thing about auras of invincibility is that they tend to fade when you lose. As for Clemson, they've been on fire as of late as well, but the ACC, more than any other Power 5 conference, didn't have anything resembling a strong #2 team to give them any sort of challenge.

And don't get me started on the "conference non-champions have made the playoff before" train. In 2016, 1-loss non-champion Ohio State got in over a 2-loss champion Penn State. In 2017, 1-loss non-champion Alabama got in over a 2-loss champion Ohio State. In 2015, 1-loss non-champion and NFL talent stockpile Ohio State finished ranked behind (1) 1-loss champion Michigan State, (2) 1-loss conference runner-up Iowa, and (3) 2-loss conference champion Stanford. In 2018, if Alabama or Clemson ends up with 1 loss, they're very likely going to be looking around at a lot of 0- and 1-loss conference champions (and undefeated Notre Dame) pushing to crowd them out. If Alabama or Clemson loses and still finds themselves in the Playoff the next morning in front of Ohio State / Oklahoma, then you can start your "The fix is in!" takes.

JUDGMENT TUESDAY

Of course, everything above is my opinion, a little friendly advice to the Committee before this week's all-important rankings. Yes, this week's all-important rankings, because the rankings the Committee puts out this Tuesday are of paramount importance. If this week's rankings have Ohio State at #6, Buckeye fans should be very nervous about their playoff chances. Why? Because Oklahoma plays 9-3 and possibly top 10 Texas, and Ohio State plays 8-4 and probably ~#20 Northwestern. This isn't like 2014 or 2017 when Ohio State entered Championship Weekend with the opportunity to get another statement win and gain ground on a competitor. If the rankings this week are #5 Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State, and both teams win on Saturday, I have a hard time believing anything will switch on Sunday morning. If the rankings are reversed on Tuesday, it's still not quite win-and-in for Ohio State, since Oklahoma can avenge their loss and beat a better opponent than Ohio State can, but Buckeye Nation can keep hope alive and fight for enough of those ephemeral style points to keep the Sooners at bay.


THE BIG 12'S GAMBLE PAYING OFF

I thought the Big 12 resurrecting their conference championship game even though their conference schedule was already a 10 team round robin was an incredibly stupid idea. The prevailing wisdom was that a conference championship would give the Big 12's top team (or teams) a 13th game to pad their resume vis-a-vis the other Power 5 champions. I thought the extra game would be a pointless rematch with the #1 team likely having already beaten #2, and the game would be just as likely to derail a team that had already earned a playoff spot by season's end (hi, 1998 Kansas State). But, barring a giant upset by Northwestern this weekend, it appears that I was wrong and the Big 12 was right. Without Oklahoma's chance for redemption on Saturday, there would've been a very real chance that they entered the week in the catbird seat at #5 and sat at home watching the Buckeyes wow the Committee past the Sooners and sneak intothe #4 spot. This time, Oklahoma will be the team making up ground. Of course, if Ohio State loses and Oklahoma faceplants against the Longhorns again, the Big 12 will look really, really, really stupid.