Week 12: Cupcake Wars

Standings:
1.) Draper 34-11 (2-9 upset)
2.) Hoying 33-12 (2-9 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 29-16 (5-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 29-16 (2-9 upset)

The good news is that all top 10 teams are playing this week (though none are playing each other). The bad news: how many of them are playing teams with winning records? Two: Notre Dame (see below) and Clemson, who plays Duke. At least Michigan, Washington State, West Virginia, and Ohio State are playing decent teams. The rest of them? Wooooooof. Tune in at noon to see the Buckeyes hopefully get to double-digit wins for an FBS-best fifteenth time this century, then go ahead and hibernate until Thanksgiving.

#12 Syracuse Orange vs. #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper:  Honestly, I don't believe there are 3 ranked matchups this week, but if Syracuse can sneak in... That being said, the Orange are pretty solid with Eric Dungy.  Coach Babers has the Orange completely outpunching their class, but the Irish are locked on the goal.  While they will get destroyed by Bama or Clemson, Brian Kelly and Co. can take care of most teams in the country with relative ease.  The Yankee stadium gimmick is dumb, but it won't be enough for the Orange to pull off the upset.  Reasonably close for 3 quarters before the Irish pull away.  Cuse: 20 -- ND: 34
Hoying: Yes, you read that right. #12 Syracuse. As in, two spots behind our beloved Buckeyes. This will be the last ranked opponent the Irish face this year, and the last significant obstacle to Notre Dame crashing the playoff for the first time. It's not a road game for the Irish per se; the game is in the state of New York, at Yankee Stadium, but the Irish are wearing Yankee uniforms for some reason? I guess that makes sense, after all, most Irish fans are Yankee fans (and Cowboy fans, and Duke basketball fans, and Golden State fans) anyway. How's the game going to shake out? You may remember Syracuse as the one team able to put a real scare into Clemson this season (other than some early season weirdness at Texas A&M). The offense has been stellar but the D hasn't been able to stop anybody. That's not good news against the (not-so-) new look Notre Dame offense under Ian Book. Man, a lot of teams sure had their offense jump start after swapping out quarterbacks midseason. Clemson, Notre Dame, Purdue, Iowa State...makes you wonder what would've happened last year if Urban wasn't so stuck on JT...oh wait, right, the offense was better last season than this season. Never mind. Anyway, Notre Dame wins this one, inching closer to further narrowing the tightest playoff race yet. SU: 27--ND: 34
Schweinfurth: If you've been following along this year, you would know that I am not a fan of this Notre Dame team and have picked them multiple times to get upset. Northwestern had their shot and then forgot how defend a zone read. I like Syracuse and think Dino Babers has done great things at a school with lots of tradition, but not much recent success. I would be all over this upset if this game was in the Carrier Dome, but it's at Yankee Stadium (yawn). That totally kills any home field advantage. Notre Dame wins, but close.  SU: 28--ND: 31
Seeberg: I've had this one earmarked for an "upset special" pick for weeks, just didn't imagine the 'Cuse would be ranked and it'd be a regular game for us to pick here at Let's Go Bucks.  It boils down to a couple things.  The Orange tend to get up for big games (see Clemson last year), and, well, I really don't trust Brian Kelly to not screw things up somehow.  Book may be back, but a week off for injury combined with still not being 100% is a dicey recipe.  Cold weather, lousy conditions in a baseball diamond no less, and the Irish will be too out of sorts to play as well as they're capable.  Orange pick up arguably the best win of the year outside of Jeauxy Burreaux's dismantling of Georgia.  Cuse: 27--ND: 23

#24 Cincinnati Bearcats @ #11 Central Florida Knights
Draper:  This matchup features the juicy undefeated and 1 loss teams...who have beaten a grand total of no one.  UCF has been trouncing most of the garbage they've played (sans Memphis), but Fickell and Co. have been winning close.  While the Knights are not the 2017 National Championships as those in their mother's basement want you to believe, they're a pretty solid squad with that chip squarely on their shoulder.  Being a ranked team for the first time this year will be nice for them...until UC drops out and they can whine about no respect even more.  I'm actually quite impressed with Fickell's turnaround in year 2, but the train ends here in one of the biggest games in Orlando this year.  UC: 24--UCF: 34
Hoying: How long can you keep a team motivated at the highest levels when they've got practically nothing to play for? UCF is currently riding a 22(!) game win streak that features a """"""national championship"""""" but let's face it, the Committee isn't going to let them anywhere near the playoff, even if they are only one freaking spot behind our beloved Buckeyes at present. And this week they're facing a hungry Cincinnati team fresh off of two 4-8 seasons (and 2 blowout losses to UCF), looking to crash the big boy bowls for the first time since being Tim Tebow's going-away party patsies back in 2009. The 'Cats have the defense to win this one, and I think Fick will get them over the hump as he continues to head toward bigger and better things. Good for him (but don't beat us next year or you're dead to me). UC: 34--UCF: 31
Schweinfurth: UCF belongs in the playoff, blah, blah, blah. Yes, they had an argument last year, but has anyone actually watched one of their games this year? That defense is B. A. D. bad. I've watched a couple of UC's games (I don't know why) and they have looked impressive. Luke Fickel is doing great things down there. Add to the fact Marcus Freeman (UC's D Coordinator) is my guy and I've got the Cats all day. UC: 35--UCF: 24
Seeberg: For Luke Fickell's surprising 2nd-year reclamation project down I-71 a ways from the Horseshoe, this game needs to stay in the 20s to give the Bearcats a shot.  Cincy plays solid D, certainly a reflection of their head coach, but 30+ for UCF is likely to break the Cats' backs.  Anyone have this one as the ABC primetime game on their calendars 3 months ago?  Yeah, me neither.  Expect a good one, but just a little too much UCF offense in the end.  Night Knights indeed.  UC: 27--UCF: 31

#16 Iowa State Cyclones @ #15 Texas Longhorns
Draper:  What to do with Iowa State? They always seem to snakebite someone (hello OU last year and WVU this year), but it always goes down at home.  They ruined Brandon Weeden's bid for a National Title in 2011..but also in Ames.  On the other side of the ball, what is going on in Texas with all the Tom Herman drama?  Returning to Darrell K Royal will be a blessing as the Horns snag another ranked win over an 'eh' team to make the year end on a high(er) note.  Ok cool.  Hook em.  ISU: 20--UT: 31
Hoying: Lost in the perpetual shuffle of "Is Texas back?" is one of the greatest turnarounds in college football this season. After a terrible 1-3 start, the Cyclones turned to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy and have been firing on all cylinders since, leveling the Mountaineers along the way. Is Texas next on the hit list? Maybe. For all the success the 'Horns have enjoyed this season, they haven't won a game by more than 7 points since beating TCU the week after OSU did. The defense has gone bye-bye of late (granted, playing Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech will do that to you; see also, generally, Big 12 football), and the team may be crumbling a bit down the stretch. Fun fact: each of these teams plays a cream puff next week, and if the winner of this game can take care of business, they can find themselves in the Big 12 title game if the Oklahoma-West Virginia game next week breaks their way (ISU needs an Oklahoma victory, Texas is pulling for WVU). That team will be Iowa State. ISU: 31--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: I'm going to keep this short. Texas is not back, but is close. Iowa State is the one team no one wants to play right now. I'll roll with Matt Campbell and the Cyclones. ISU: 38--UT: 21
Seeberg: Not sure where to go on this one as the closeness in rankings would suggest.  Iowa State is, surprisingly, trending up with a 3rd string QB (hi there, 2014 Ohio State) while Texas is, also surprisingly, trending downward, losing two in a row just two weeks after winning the Red River Rivalry in a shootout.  A narrow win in another shootout (which feels redundant to say given that it's a Big 12 contest) against Texas Tech may have righted the ship for the Longhorns.  If the weird Zack Smith/Herman feud causes a distraction, this one could well go the other way, but I'm taking Texas in a tight one (giggity).  ISU: 28--UT: 34

#10 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Maryland Terrapins
Draper:  Maryland is that program that can't seem to keep a QB healthy.  It's getting ridiculous how they drop like flies....and that's not close to the worst thing happening in College Park this year.  Some may point to this as a trap game as the Bucks prepare for TTUN, but honestly, I think this is a game to strut our stuff.  Last week was gross...but if you step back, the team played pretty well in most phases.  Win--Check, Ranked Opponent--Check, on the road--Check, by 20 -- Check.  I expect to see a few wrinkles to confuse Michigan (more Tate Martell to add another element please).  Of course there's the worry that things all fall to the opponent (see: Purdue) but if we play our game and smart (BIG if), we'll be fine.  Keep winning and let the chips fall.  OSU: 38--MD: 16
Hoying: Ahhhhhh, isn't it nice to actually enjoy a win for once? What, you didn't enjoy that mess in East Lansing? It had punting, defensive touchdowns, punting, a semi-competent running game, and more punting. Somewhere (probably Youngstown) Jim Tressel is smiling and nodding. I haven't watched a lot of Maryland football this year so I don't know much about them other than that their athletes are worse than Ohio State's, and that their coach and starting QB are both gone. Then again, Maryland starting a backup QB is pretty much par for the course for them; they've lost 6 QBs to ACL tears alone in the last 7 years. The last two times Maryland started a backup QB against Ohio State they got absolutely obliterated. The year before that, backup QB Perry Hills couldn't throw worth a lick but he ran for 170 yards and scared the crap out of the Buckeyes for a half. What does any of that have to do with this year? Not much, but writing about Maryland is boring me already. There's no reason they should win this game; Ohio State is kind of sort of finding something like a groove again and this should be nothing more than a tune-up for you-know-who next week. OSU: 34--MD: 20
Schweinfurth: I have one wish this week: get the win and keep everyone healthy. Maryland is a feast or famine team on offense. Limit the big plays and the Terps will have trouble moving the ball. Please keep working on that run game this week. I don't know that the Bucks will really show a lot on offense, just simple plays. I expect to see Tate Martell, only because there should be garbage time. OSU: 45--MD: 10
Seeberg: Fun stat of the day:  Ohio State is beating Maryland by an average of 39 points since the Terrapins entered the conference.  This Buckeyes team isn't as good as years' past, so don't expect quite as decisive a victory.  Fun stat #2:  Mike Weber has 711 rushing yards this season, and J.K. Dobbins has...712.  However, Weber has had 30 fewer carries than Dobbins, bolstering my 2-year belief that Weber is the better back (though both are clearly very good).  Regardless, the goal is to win this one going away and stay healthy.  I REALLY hope to see further improvement in red zone efficiency with the Martell package, or Tate Crate (tm) as I am officially coining it.  Score touchdowns not FGs, because we'll need 7s next week for sure.  OSU: 42--MD: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Citadel over Alabama (greatest upset of all time)
Hoying: Arizona over Washington State 
Schweinfurth: Middle Tennessee over Kentucky
Seeberg: Oklahoma State over West Virginia

Grading the Bucks: Week 11--Michigan State

It wasn't (that) pretty, but they took care of business.  Honestly, it's hard to call a 20 point victory on the road against a ranked opponent a 'bad' win.

Offense: C
MVP: Mike Weber, RB
The running game was reasonably effective against a rugged MSU defense.  The passing game has evaporated over the last few weeks which is immensely concerning. I'm hopeful that the goal was to develop the run game (success) and hide the 'strength' but I worry about the ability to flip the switch.  Haskins has looked timid which could be a very real issue come to TTUN. Here's hoping we can find the key to reset Haskins to the beginning of the season.  The O-line got closer to average with this performance (but Prince has dropped off the map).  I loved the addition of the Tate Martell package (imagine the Bucks STARTING Martell vs. Meatchicken...).  More to follow.

Defense: A
MVP: Dremont Jones, DT
Let's be clear: Michigan State is bad on offense.  Horrible.  But, the defense did what they were supposed to do and shut them down.  While the offense faced is atrocious, credit is deserved for doing their job.  I'm a bit concerned that teams have been able to scheme away the D-line with quick passes (nullifies the advantage).  The secondary needs more work of course, but White had another nice game. 

Special Teams: A+
coMVPs: Drue Chrisman, P, Terry McLaurin, WR
What a day! The worst punt in OSU history couple with one of the greatest punting performance in OSU history. A 4 yard punt set the defense back, but 5 punts inside the 6? Crazy good.  Those also led directly to a safety and defensive TD.  Phenomenal effort.  Terry McLaurin deserves credit for the unsung fielding of the punts at the one.

Coaching: B
Confusion still abounds.  Offensive playcalling is still a mystery.  The decline of Haskins accuracy and comfort is worrisome. Defensive playcalling was fine this week but the Spartans are a mess.  The Martell package was great (and the coaches seemed very comfortable calling plays), it gained 8 yards....and then we went away from it.  Why? The QB run option completely opens up the running game but it's painfully clear no defense respects Haskins running (which they shouldn't).  A creative mix can be used effectively, but the gameplan needs to be scripted to allow for it.  Maybe it's more of a threat to TTUN but I think Tate should be peppered in situationally as well as on certain drives.  The O-line and coaches are much more comfortable utilizing a running QB.  If Haskins could run....he'd put Tua to shame (maybe).

Overall: A-
20 point road win over a ranked opponent.  Credit is deserved even if the CFP committee has shown they don't care.  Perhaps one of these days the scales will be balanced.  Buckeyes, take heart.  This was a good win.  We are right in the thick of playoff hunt (to be sacrificed on the alter of Saban).