Final Standings:
1.) Hoying 44-21 (3-10 upset)
2.) Draper 43-22 (1-12 upset)
2.) Draper 43-22 (1-12 upset)
2.) Seeberg 43-22 (0-13 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 41-24 (6-7 upset)
Another year, another Ohio State appearance in the Playoff. As you prepare to watch college football through confetti, don't forget to take a moment to consider the poor unfortunate souls whose ceiling was the orange-est Orange Bowl ever, a sour Sugar Bowl for one perennial championship contender, or a trip to Jerry World to face an angry puddle.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30
Orange3 Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: (Editor's note: I and my family are ill so these writeups will be short) In the Orange Bowl to end all Orange Bowls, we are faced with the ugly new world of the bowls with players opting out left and right. While Tennessee had a year that would have thrilled any Vol fan by almost any metric, I feel they are simply too depleted to defeat a Clemson team that is trying to remain in the elite tier. This is Klubnik's team now and he has plenty to prove. Dabo's team takes the oranges in God's name, image, and likeness. UT: 23--Clem: 34
Hoying: If this game were scheduled back in early November, when both these teams were 8-0, I'm guessing Vegas would peg this one as an absolute laugher victory for the Vols. Now, the picture's not so clear. Not only are Tennessee's electric QB Hendon Hooker and their two best receivers, including Biletnikoff winner (*massive eye roll*) Jalin Hyatt, opting out of the bowl, but the Vols were run off the field by South Carolina even with these players (mostly playing), losing by 25 in contrast to Clemson's 1 point squeaker loss to the 'Cocks. Speaking of South Carolina, let's take a moment to celebrate their crucial role in preparing the way of Ohio State to return to the Playoff. Every Death Valley filled in, every Rocky Top made low...where was I? Oh yes, Tennessee has been brought back down to Earth, which Clemson never really had any delusions of leaving. DJ Uiagaleilei never quite worked out over the past 3 seasons, and he's off to Oregon State (to play against his D-line Duck-bound brother?), finally opening the doorfor Cade Klubnik to wield the reins unchallenged. It worked well in the ACC Championship game, but that was against a suspect North Carolina secondary, and...oh...right...the Tigers are playing Tennessee. Expect Joe Milton (remember him from the worst Michigan team since, oh, every RichRod one) to struggle throwing to a depleted receiver corps, as the Clemson D and Klubnik step up just enough to earn the W. UT: 27--Clem: 31
Hoying: If this game were scheduled back in early November, when both these teams were 8-0, I'm guessing Vegas would peg this one as an absolute laugher victory for the Vols. Now, the picture's not so clear. Not only are Tennessee's electric QB Hendon Hooker and their two best receivers, including Biletnikoff winner (*massive eye roll*) Jalin Hyatt, opting out of the bowl, but the Vols were run off the field by South Carolina even with these players (mostly playing), losing by 25 in contrast to Clemson's 1 point squeaker loss to the 'Cocks. Speaking of South Carolina, let's take a moment to celebrate their crucial role in preparing the way of Ohio State to return to the Playoff. Every Death Valley filled in, every Rocky Top made low...where was I? Oh yes, Tennessee has been brought back down to Earth, which Clemson never really had any delusions of leaving. DJ Uiagaleilei never quite worked out over the past 3 seasons, and he's off to Oregon State (to play against his D-line Duck-bound brother?), finally opening the doorfor Cade Klubnik to wield the reins unchallenged. It worked well in the ACC Championship game, but that was against a suspect North Carolina secondary, and...oh...right...the Tigers are playing Tennessee. Expect Joe Milton (remember him from the worst Michigan team since, oh, every RichRod one) to struggle throwing to a depleted receiver corps, as the Clemson D and Klubnik step up just enough to earn the W. UT: 27--Clem: 31
Schweinfurth: I'm really not even sure who is playing in this game. DJ is transferring and Tennessee has half the offense opting out or injured. The Vols offense has been questionable, at best, this year. I guess we see what these two teams might look like next year. UT: 21--Clem: 34
Seeberg: Bowl games are becoming progressively more difficult to predict with the opt-outs. This one is compounded by the injury to Hendon Hooker AND the transfer portal where DJ Ukulele sits. The Vols' offense still looked potent in an absolute thrashing of Vandy after Hooker went down, but now their top 2 WRs are declining to play. DJ, however, transferred after losing his starting job to a freshman (last time Clemson did that, it was Trevor Lawrence taking over. Worked out ok). Have to trust the TIgers' shade of orange just a little bit more in this one. Don't adjust your television sets. UT: 20--Clem: 33
Seeberg: Bowl games are becoming progressively more difficult to predict with the opt-outs. This one is compounded by the injury to Hendon Hooker AND the transfer portal where DJ Ukulele sits. The Vols' offense still looked potent in an absolute thrashing of Vandy after Hooker went down, but now their top 2 WRs are declining to play. DJ, however, transferred after losing his starting job to a freshman (last time Clemson did that, it was Trevor Lawrence taking over. Worked out ok). Have to trust the TIgers' shade of orange just a little bit more in this one. Don't adjust your television sets. UT: 20--Clem: 33
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31
Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Draper: Bama's stars have said they will be playing for the Sugar Bowl, but the question is will they care? Bryce Young has actually been really good this year, but Kansas State and the Deuce have laid it all out there and will certainly continue to do so. I really want to pick the team that wants to be there, but the talent disparity is simply too great. Sigh....give me Bama. Bama: 30--KSU: 17
Hoying: It's become something of a joke at this point, but yes, Alabama is beatable in bowl games, even if they "want to be there". Utah and Oklahoma earned those Sugar Bowl victories in 2009 and 2014, and the Tide are vulnerable again, to the right kind of opponent. Yes, their two losses this season were to ranked opponents on a last-second FG and an overtime 2-point conversion, but Alabama also won on an (essentially) last-second FG, an (essentially) 2-point conversion, and a late stand in the red zone against Ole Miss. The Tide offense still looks really good, but they have been inconsistent on defense, particularly against the run. And Kansas State looooves to run. Even so, I don't see this one being particularly close. I think the Wildcats captured lightning in their OT win over TCU and won't be able to do it again against a talent-superior team. Bama: 34--KSU: 23
Hoying: It's become something of a joke at this point, but yes, Alabama is beatable in bowl games, even if they "want to be there". Utah and Oklahoma earned those Sugar Bowl victories in 2009 and 2014, and the Tide are vulnerable again, to the right kind of opponent. Yes, their two losses this season were to ranked opponents on a last-second FG and an overtime 2-point conversion, but Alabama also won on an (essentially) last-second FG, an (essentially) 2-point conversion, and a late stand in the red zone against Ole Miss. The Tide offense still looks really good, but they have been inconsistent on defense, particularly against the run. And Kansas State looooves to run. Even so, I don't see this one being particularly close. I think the Wildcats captured lightning in their OT win over TCU and won't be able to do it again against a talent-superior team. Bama: 34--KSU: 23
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure if Bama showing up to this game will matter. The talent gap here seems enormous. Will I be rooting for the upset? Yes. Will it happen? No. Bama should win fairly easy. Bama: 42--KSU: 17
Seeberg: Honestly I'm not gonna spend much time breaking this one down. Two of the top 3 picks in the 2023 draft are playing in this game despite it being for "nothing". That's all you need to know. Young and Andersen go out winners. Bama: 41--KSU: 24
Seeberg: Honestly I'm not gonna spend much time breaking this one down. Two of the top 3 picks in the 2023 draft are playing in this game despite it being for "nothing". That's all you need to know. Young and Andersen go out winners. Bama: 41--KSU: 24
MONDAY, JANUARY 2
Cotton Bowl: Southern California Trojans vs. Tulane Green Wave
Draper: The Group of 5 representative has fared pretty well in the past (sorry, Cincy) due to the "give a crap" factor. USC had everything in front of them, but it all went poof vs. the Utes. Can the Heisman winner come back from injury to lead his team over the feared Green Wave? You know....I think this one will come down to motivation and Lincoln Riley's poor bowl record. USC: 27--Tul: 31
Hoying: Doesn't quite have the luster of USC's last visit to the Cotton Bowl to face the Buckeyes, does it? Everyone who wanted an expanded Playoff with one spot reserved for the top Group of 5 conference champion, just think about this Tulane team walking into a postseason game with national championship implications, just to get lit up by some second-tier team like Penn State or USC. Yes, Lincoln Riley has concocted the most ineffective Trojan defense since Priam, but the offense is still in tip-top form. That is, as long as Caleb Williams is fighting fit. I'm not really sure why Riley let him stay in the game in the closing minutes of their blowout loss to Utah, just for him to take hit after hit on his already busted leg. USC clearly won last year's transfer portal stakes, patching over the mediocre USC of recent years gone by, but a consequence thereof is that the Trojans are precariously thin at many positions, most notably quarterback. Backup Miller Moss has attempted all of 14 passes this year. The Trojans are already on their backup running back after Travis Dye was lost for the season. If they were playing anyone else in the New Year's Six I would be concerned, but it's Tulane. If USC wants to wash the taste of their Playoff-blocking faceplant against Utah, now is the time. USC: 38--Tul: 31
Hoying: Doesn't quite have the luster of USC's last visit to the Cotton Bowl to face the Buckeyes, does it? Everyone who wanted an expanded Playoff with one spot reserved for the top Group of 5 conference champion, just think about this Tulane team walking into a postseason game with national championship implications, just to get lit up by some second-tier team like Penn State or USC. Yes, Lincoln Riley has concocted the most ineffective Trojan defense since Priam, but the offense is still in tip-top form. That is, as long as Caleb Williams is fighting fit. I'm not really sure why Riley let him stay in the game in the closing minutes of their blowout loss to Utah, just for him to take hit after hit on his already busted leg. USC clearly won last year's transfer portal stakes, patching over the mediocre USC of recent years gone by, but a consequence thereof is that the Trojans are precariously thin at many positions, most notably quarterback. Backup Miller Moss has attempted all of 14 passes this year. The Trojans are already on their backup running back after Travis Dye was lost for the season. If they were playing anyone else in the New Year's Six I would be concerned, but it's Tulane. If USC wants to wash the taste of their Playoff-blocking faceplant against Utah, now is the time. USC: 38--Tul: 31
Schweinfurth: Tulane is going to score in this one. USC's defense is straight trash. The problem for Tulane is that USC can put up points in truckloads. Crazy things happen in the Cotton Bowl, but USC should win. USC: 42--Tul: 35
Seeberg: Heisman hangover? Lack of motivation? The Green Wave and their bevy of awesome uniforms will need all of that and more to keep this one competitive. Yes, Tulane can score it, but they're not built like the Utes that proved to be USC's kryptonite and, quite frankly, it's hard to imagine the Green Wave putting up a ton of resistance defensively, even with the Trojans' best RB down for the year. USC should still possess enough motivation to want to end the year strong after the disastrous second half against Utah, and that's enough to pull out a W. USC: 41--Tul: 27
Seeberg: Heisman hangover? Lack of motivation? The Green Wave and their bevy of awesome uniforms will need all of that and more to keep this one competitive. Yes, Tulane can score it, but they're not built like the Utes that proved to be USC's kryptonite and, quite frankly, it's hard to imagine the Green Wave putting up a ton of resistance defensively, even with the Trojans' best RB down for the year. USC should still possess enough motivation to want to end the year strong after the disastrous second half against Utah, and that's enough to pull out a W. USC: 41--Tul: 27
Rose Bowl: Utah Utes vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: Penn State is really living off their losses from the year. The win over Auburn was nice, but seriously...who cares. Utah had their Super Bowl in the Pac 12 championship, but the Ute fans truly believe in this team. Dalton Kincaid is an absolute stud, and his absence will be noticeable. I think this is the time for Penn State to make a huge statement that they should be considered in the upper echelon of the B1G next year (but they won't be....nor should they be). That being said, this is a nice billboard material game to say, like every good Cubs fan, "there's always next year". UU: 27--PSU: 30
Hoying: It's tough to be Penn State this year. You play two games of consequence against the Big Two, lose both by double digits, and pound the rest of the Little Twelve. One wonders what heights they could have reached in the ACC, Big 12, or Pac-12. Well, here's their opportunity to measure up against the Pac-12 champion. Utah has shown wonderful balance this year, strong on both sides of the ball, with a decent passing offense and an elite-level rushing attack. We've seen Penn State face one (sigh) elite-level rushing attack this season, and it went for 418 yards on the ground. That being said, the Nittany Lions are no slouch in their own right, apart from a curiously overrated rushing attack of their own. Yes, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen may be problems for opponents someday, but for now, they're just sort of...OK. I know Happy Valley is sick of Sean Clifford by now, but he's not a bad QB, he's just not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields (or even Trace McSorley). This will be a real gut-check game for the Pac-12. How can their top teams fare against the second tier of the Big Ten? My guess is just well enough to lose a hard-fought battle. UU: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: It's tough to be Penn State this year. You play two games of consequence against the Big Two, lose both by double digits, and pound the rest of the Little Twelve. One wonders what heights they could have reached in the ACC, Big 12, or Pac-12. Well, here's their opportunity to measure up against the Pac-12 champion. Utah has shown wonderful balance this year, strong on both sides of the ball, with a decent passing offense and an elite-level rushing attack. We've seen Penn State face one (sigh) elite-level rushing attack this season, and it went for 418 yards on the ground. That being said, the Nittany Lions are no slouch in their own right, apart from a curiously overrated rushing attack of their own. Yes, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen may be problems for opponents someday, but for now, they're just sort of...OK. I know Happy Valley is sick of Sean Clifford by now, but he's not a bad QB, he's just not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields (or even Trace McSorley). This will be a real gut-check game for the Pac-12. How can their top teams fare against the second tier of the Big Ten? My guess is just well enough to lose a hard-fought battle. UU: 24--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Utah came oh, so close last year to upsetting the Buckeyes. This is almost the same Utes team that was here last year. This Penn State team is not great away from Beaver Stadium and the Utes are primed to get that first Rose Bowl win. Watch the Utes win this on a walk off field goal. UU: 31--PSU: 28
Seeberg: This is almost undoubtedly the best bowl game outside the playoff. Both of these squads are in the Rose Bowl, and the Rose Bowl still means something to both of these schools (as it should). Utah was tantalizingly close to a win last year, staved off only by an absolutely bonkers game from Stroud and JSN. To their credit, the Nittanies absolutely rolled through the garbage schedule of the last month of the season after the disappointing losses to TTUN and OSU. Utah, meanwhile, had midseason hiccups as well but blasted the Trojans to get back to the Rose Bowl again. With nobody else of note on their schedule, it's just too difficult to get a read on Penn State even at the end of the year. I get the sense the Utes are too motivated to let a second straight Rose Bowl trip yield no prize. Utes late. UU: 30--PSU: 24
Seeberg: This is almost undoubtedly the best bowl game outside the playoff. Both of these squads are in the Rose Bowl, and the Rose Bowl still means something to both of these schools (as it should). Utah was tantalizingly close to a win last year, staved off only by an absolutely bonkers game from Stroud and JSN. To their credit, the Nittanies absolutely rolled through the garbage schedule of the last month of the season after the disappointing losses to TTUN and OSU. Utah, meanwhile, had midseason hiccups as well but blasted the Trojans to get back to the Rose Bowl again. With nobody else of note on their schedule, it's just too difficult to get a read on Penn State even at the end of the year. I get the sense the Utes are too motivated to let a second straight Rose Bowl trip yield no prize. Utes late. UU: 30--PSU: 24
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31 again
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Draper: The Wolverines are only the 3rd team in CFP history to be a top 2 seed in the CFP 2x (how's that for a cherry-picked stat!). Everyone will be slobbing on the Wolverines after the lopsided score in The Game "crowned them", but I'm still not sold. They've looked flawed throughout the year in different ways and lived off the big play vs. the Bucks (they earned the win and deserved it...but I don't know how prescriptive it is). TCU had a huge disappointment at the end of a magical year, but they're still there with everything in front of them. In fact, TCU still has the team of destiny flair with Max Duggan's heroics in the Big 12 Championship. And maaaaybe, TCU can learn from OSU's mistakes and FREAKING TARGET THE FREAK WIDE RECEIVER ALL DAY. With that, I'm going with the heart. All Hail Hypnotoad. Why? UM: 21--TCU: 23
Hoying: Michigan has looked anywhere from good to very very good this season, with the exception of the first half of their last regular season game and the near entirety of their prior outing against Illinois. That's not a great trend heading into a game that could simultaneously be their biggest game of the year and something of a letdown. You go on the road to play your undefeated #2-ranked rival, beat them there for the first time in 22 years, and now you get...TCU? Who sputtered themselves in their last outing. Yes, the Wolverines were able to dispatch Purdue with ease but something has looked off with them in their prior couple of games. After seeing the success Donovan Edwards was having while spelling Blake Corum earlier in the year I was tempted to think that the Michigan rushing attack was as plug-and-play as Ohio State's, but they really looked awful against Illinois when both players were unavailable. And Edwards did jack squat against Ohio State until we started running our "every play is 4th-and-1" defense. I'm worried that he's not 100%, and the recently liberated Wolverine deep passing attack isn't going to be able to do enough to bail out Michigan's hobbled rush O now that his opponents know how to prepare for JJ McCarthy and his pedestrian receiving corps. They are begging to get tagged, and TCU is just good enough to make it happen. The Horned Frogs may be by far the weakest of the four Playoff teams at full strength, but their defense has been steadily improving throughout the season and their options in the running game should be able to break through the Wolverine stone wall. Don't turn this one off at halftime if the Frogs are up, since no lead is safe against America's greatest second half team (sigh), but TCU will do just enough to jump to the doorstep of their first national title. UM: 23--TCU: 24
Hoying: Michigan has looked anywhere from good to very very good this season, with the exception of the first half of their last regular season game and the near entirety of their prior outing against Illinois. That's not a great trend heading into a game that could simultaneously be their biggest game of the year and something of a letdown. You go on the road to play your undefeated #2-ranked rival, beat them there for the first time in 22 years, and now you get...TCU? Who sputtered themselves in their last outing. Yes, the Wolverines were able to dispatch Purdue with ease but something has looked off with them in their prior couple of games. After seeing the success Donovan Edwards was having while spelling Blake Corum earlier in the year I was tempted to think that the Michigan rushing attack was as plug-and-play as Ohio State's, but they really looked awful against Illinois when both players were unavailable. And Edwards did jack squat against Ohio State until we started running our "every play is 4th-and-1" defense. I'm worried that he's not 100%, and the recently liberated Wolverine deep passing attack isn't going to be able to do enough to bail out Michigan's hobbled rush O now that his opponents know how to prepare for JJ McCarthy and his pedestrian receiving corps. They are begging to get tagged, and TCU is just good enough to make it happen. The Horned Frogs may be by far the weakest of the four Playoff teams at full strength, but their defense has been steadily improving throughout the season and their options in the running game should be able to break through the Wolverine stone wall. Don't turn this one off at halftime if the Frogs are up, since no lead is safe against America's greatest second half team (sigh), but TCU will do just enough to jump to the doorstep of their first national title. UM: 23--TCU: 24
Schweinfurth: 5 plays and defensive breakdowns were all that stood between Ohio State in this position and TTUN. I'll be honest, McCarthy still can't throw the ball downfield. He underthrows everything and is lucky that some of his guys were wide open. Max Duggan played the game of his life against Kansas State and his team came up just short. TTUN is a second half team, I'll give them that. If this is close at halftime, TTUN runs away. I'm gonna type this score and go puke. UM: 35--TCU: 21
Seeberg: As I've looked over TTUN and their games this season, I have to give credit where credit is due. They rarely put away any competent opponents by halftime. And by competent, I don't mean OSU or PSU, I mean Indiana (tied 10-10), Purdue (led 14-13), Illinois (led 7-3), and even TRAILED Rutgers at halftime. I think TCU is certainly a step up from any of those opponents in terms of playmaking ability and likely physicality (with the possible exception of Illinois). The script sets up perfectly against a similar opponent that likes to run it and limit possessions. Sadly, UM does it a little better. It won't wind up 52-17 like the Rutgers scoreline, but *dry heaves in mouth* TTUN will play for a natty. UM: 31--TCU: 17
Seeberg: As I've looked over TTUN and their games this season, I have to give credit where credit is due. They rarely put away any competent opponents by halftime. And by competent, I don't mean OSU or PSU, I mean Indiana (tied 10-10), Purdue (led 14-13), Illinois (led 7-3), and even TRAILED Rutgers at halftime. I think TCU is certainly a step up from any of those opponents in terms of playmaking ability and likely physicality (with the possible exception of Illinois). The script sets up perfectly against a similar opponent that likes to run it and limit possessions. Sadly, UM does it a little better. It won't wind up 52-17 like the Rutgers scoreline, but *dry heaves in mouth* TTUN will play for a natty. UM: 31--TCU: 17
Peach Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: The shot at redemption has never been greater that this moment. The Buckeyes are hyper-hyper talented and just haven't consistently lived up to that late in the year. Either it gels now, or it's lost to history. Buckeye Nation has hated on CJ for an inexcusable amount of time (any time is inexcusable). He's arguably the greatest QB in the school's history, but the albatross of never beating TTUN is just too much. Georgia is a behemoth team with absolute stud's on defense that make UM's defense look puny....but....if the Buckeyes can play to THEIR strengths and FEED MARV all day, there is a chink in the armor. The Buckeye defense has to limit the big plays and Brock Bowers is an enormous problem, but if the Bucks can operate on offense like they are capable and get Stetson Bennett (of Stetson's Used Car Dealership) to make a few mistakes, there is a path forward in a shootout. You want to be the king...you'd best not miss. GO BUCKS! OSU: 45--UGA: 40
Hoying: Oh, doom and gloom, woe is me, our team just lost the first game of the season, our fifth of the four-year Ryan Day era...and the Buckeyes are right back in the Playoff regardless. We've seen this story before, where a Buckeye team slides from #5 to #4 on Championship Weekend and then plows right through the field on the way to a national title. We've even seen Alabama lose their last game of the regular season, to their rival, miss their conference championship, and back into the Playoff on their way to a golden lipstick of their own. Wasn't this the matchup everybody was expecting for the National Championship? One bad half of football and suddenly Ryan Day is a drooling moron, CJ Stroud is a weak-willed scrub, and we don't belong on the same field as the mighty Georgia Bulldogs. It's true, the Buckeyes are depleted at running back. We've still not completely recovered from losing possibly the best player in the country in week 1. And the flaws of the Knowles scheme were laid completely bare at the worst possible times in the debacle against the Wolverines. But it's also true that there's not a team in the nation that can stop this passing attack when it's fully humming. The Achilles heel of the offense was thought to be Stroud's decision making and lack of desire to run when he's pressured. But somewhat lost in the sauce against Michigan was the stellar play of the Ohio State offensive line. Not only did Stroud have all day to throw, but Chip Trayanum had big holes to run through all first half long. Georgia is a bit of a different animal, but the Buckeyes should look even better after a month to rest up, assuming they can then go 60 minutes without another devastating injury. On the other side of the ball, Georgia QB and Matlock aficionado Stetson Bennett has quietly rounded into a serviceable quarterback helming an efficient and effecting passing attack. But it's not built to take the top off the defense in the way that the Wolverines were able to have success. The thing about breaking in a new defense is it may take a few months or even an entire season to get your players on the same page, and the Buckeyes should look as sound as they have all year against the formidable Bulldog offense. I want so, so badly to pick Ohio State in this one. They match up well talent wise with Georgia, and their offense is built to give the Dawgs problems through the air. The underdog mentality serves them well, and much like in last year's Rose Bowl, this team will be desperate to get the bad taste of a bad loss out of their mouths, especially with a chance at redemption in so many ways awaiting them in the game to come (my pick above notwithstanding). No one (other than maybe Steve Sarkisian and Lincoln Riley) schemes up a juggernaut offense better than Ryan Day; just think about the hell that Ohio State rained down on Clemson both years (until red zone woes kneecapped them in 2019). But. Sigh. There's another issue at play here: focus and discipline, and not just from the players. Ever since the bye week, we have seen near-weekly breakdowns of play-calling and execution combining to grind the Buckeye attack to a halt for a quarter or more. The second quarter against Iowa. The second and third quarters against Penn State. Northwestern...OK, we'll ignore Northwestern. The second quarter against Maryland. And the second half (especially the third quarter) in the Buckeyes' last outing. Taking a quarter off is a recipe for disaster against a team as efficient and disciplined as Georgia. This is going to be a pull-your-hair-out kind of game, where the Buckeyes play well enough to win...most of the time. Then the false starts, the missed assignments, and the cutesy plays will dig the Bucks into a hole they can't escape. So passes the CJ Stroud/Jaxon Smith-Njigba era, and both deserved better. OSU: 24--UGA: 34
Hoying: Oh, doom and gloom, woe is me, our team just lost the first game of the season, our fifth of the four-year Ryan Day era...and the Buckeyes are right back in the Playoff regardless. We've seen this story before, where a Buckeye team slides from #5 to #4 on Championship Weekend and then plows right through the field on the way to a national title. We've even seen Alabama lose their last game of the regular season, to their rival, miss their conference championship, and back into the Playoff on their way to a golden lipstick of their own. Wasn't this the matchup everybody was expecting for the National Championship? One bad half of football and suddenly Ryan Day is a drooling moron, CJ Stroud is a weak-willed scrub, and we don't belong on the same field as the mighty Georgia Bulldogs. It's true, the Buckeyes are depleted at running back. We've still not completely recovered from losing possibly the best player in the country in week 1. And the flaws of the Knowles scheme were laid completely bare at the worst possible times in the debacle against the Wolverines. But it's also true that there's not a team in the nation that can stop this passing attack when it's fully humming. The Achilles heel of the offense was thought to be Stroud's decision making and lack of desire to run when he's pressured. But somewhat lost in the sauce against Michigan was the stellar play of the Ohio State offensive line. Not only did Stroud have all day to throw, but Chip Trayanum had big holes to run through all first half long. Georgia is a bit of a different animal, but the Buckeyes should look even better after a month to rest up, assuming they can then go 60 minutes without another devastating injury. On the other side of the ball, Georgia QB and Matlock aficionado Stetson Bennett has quietly rounded into a serviceable quarterback helming an efficient and effecting passing attack. But it's not built to take the top off the defense in the way that the Wolverines were able to have success. The thing about breaking in a new defense is it may take a few months or even an entire season to get your players on the same page, and the Buckeyes should look as sound as they have all year against the formidable Bulldog offense. I want so, so badly to pick Ohio State in this one. They match up well talent wise with Georgia, and their offense is built to give the Dawgs problems through the air. The underdog mentality serves them well, and much like in last year's Rose Bowl, this team will be desperate to get the bad taste of a bad loss out of their mouths, especially with a chance at redemption in so many ways awaiting them in the game to come (my pick above notwithstanding). No one (other than maybe Steve Sarkisian and Lincoln Riley) schemes up a juggernaut offense better than Ryan Day; just think about the hell that Ohio State rained down on Clemson both years (until red zone woes kneecapped them in 2019). But. Sigh. There's another issue at play here: focus and discipline, and not just from the players. Ever since the bye week, we have seen near-weekly breakdowns of play-calling and execution combining to grind the Buckeye attack to a halt for a quarter or more. The second quarter against Iowa. The second and third quarters against Penn State. Northwestern...OK, we'll ignore Northwestern. The second quarter against Maryland. And the second half (especially the third quarter) in the Buckeyes' last outing. Taking a quarter off is a recipe for disaster against a team as efficient and disciplined as Georgia. This is going to be a pull-your-hair-out kind of game, where the Buckeyes play well enough to win...most of the time. Then the false starts, the missed assignments, and the cutesy plays will dig the Bucks into a hole they can't escape. So passes the CJ Stroud/Jaxon Smith-Njigba era, and both deserved better. OSU: 24--UGA: 34
Schweinfurth: I have a hard time being positive about this Buckeyes team. These guys were sleep walking through the second half of the season and then played like they were trying to make diamonds in their butt holes. Here's the thing, if Day unleashes the offense and lets Stroud try to throw down field, this can be a winnable game. If Jaylen Carter shows up and gets pressure up the middle...Just think of what happened the last time the Bucks backed into the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, but the deck just feels too stacked in this one. OSU: 17--UGA: 35
Seeberg: Given our proximity to Ohio State, I've heard a LOT of talk over the past few weeks about how the Buckeyes are easily the worst matchup for UGA of the 3 other playoff opponents. While this is likely true, UGA is pretty much UM injected with the Captain America serum and that's not exactly a great matchup for the Buckeyes either. I want SO desperately to see the Buckeyes attack BETWEEN THE G***AMN HASHES for once. Show me crosses and posts and slants instead of everything having to be so precise and so lateral outside the numbers. The Buckeyes' one legitimate shot in this game is that UGA, by design, doesn't bring pressure too often. IF Stroud is clean all day and IF we can scheme something up like Clemson 2020 or Utah last year then this game is essentially a pick 'em. Oh, AND we have to avoid the penalties that have plagued this squad all year AND figure out who on God's green earth will be running the ball AND stop sending 48 guys on blitzes and leaving our mediocre-tackling corners on islands. IF that feels like a lot of IFs to you...you're right. Here's one more IF. IF I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I do think this Buckeye team wins 3 times out of 10, but it just doesn't feel like this will be one of those 3. Still, better odds than Endgame. OSU: 31--UGA: 36
Seeberg: Given our proximity to Ohio State, I've heard a LOT of talk over the past few weeks about how the Buckeyes are easily the worst matchup for UGA of the 3 other playoff opponents. While this is likely true, UGA is pretty much UM injected with the Captain America serum and that's not exactly a great matchup for the Buckeyes either. I want SO desperately to see the Buckeyes attack BETWEEN THE G***AMN HASHES for once. Show me crosses and posts and slants instead of everything having to be so precise and so lateral outside the numbers. The Buckeyes' one legitimate shot in this game is that UGA, by design, doesn't bring pressure too often. IF Stroud is clean all day and IF we can scheme something up like Clemson 2020 or Utah last year then this game is essentially a pick 'em. Oh, AND we have to avoid the penalties that have plagued this squad all year AND figure out who on God's green earth will be running the ball AND stop sending 48 guys on blitzes and leaving our mediocre-tackling corners on islands. IF that feels like a lot of IFs to you...you're right. Here's one more IF. IF I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I do think this Buckeye team wins 3 times out of 10, but it just doesn't feel like this will be one of those 3. Still, better odds than Endgame. OSU: 31--UGA: 36
