Standings:
1.) Hoying 34-13 (3-7 upset)
1.) Draper 34-13 (0-10 upset)
1.) Draper 34-13 (0-10 upset)
3.) Seeberg 32-15 (0-10 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 30-17 (4-6 upset)
The (slightly revised) big three have solidified their spots for now and earned a few relative breathers before the titanic clashes to come. But while we wait for those shoes to drop, multiple Playoff hopefuls on the precipice are looking to make statement wins to keep themselves in the running.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: This is (surprisingly). Bama has shown multiple chinks in the armor this year. While they're certainly more talented than Lane Kiffin's squad, there have been VERY few road wins of note this year. The Grove is a tough place to play, but a quick review of Ole Miss's schedule shows they've played....no one outside of LSU (to whom they lost). Bryce Young is a very talented player that has hidden a lot of the flaws in the Tide, but the RB is very good and will be the X-factor. Bama may be (more or less) out of the running, but if they have a little pride, I think they leave with a win. Ala: 38--Miss: 30
Hoying: Hot take: I don't think the Tide are that good this season. Yes, they're a last-second field goal in Knoxville and a 2-point conversion in Baton Rouge away from still being undefeated, but they're a late field goal in Austin and 2 yards in Tuscaloosa against the Aggies away from just as easily being 5-4. They've been particularly bad on the road, not that Tennessee or LSU would be an easy out no matter where you play them. Not only is the Bama offense frustratingly inconsistent, especially through the air, the defense is running some truly bizarre schemes, which led to them getting gashed late against LSU. The pieces are on the table to Alabama to get got again, but unfortunately their remaining schedule may save them. Ole Miss is basically a worse version of Bama: the secondary is atrocious rather than bad, and the passing game has really dropped off after Matt Corral left. The Rebels have essentially played one good team, LSU, and got blown away a lot worse than the Tide did. Look out for a potential bowl game loss for Alabama, but I wouldn't bet on them losing before then. Ala: 34--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Bama feels ripe for another upset here. The Tide can score with anyone, especially with Bryce Young pulling the trigger. The Tide defense just hasn't looked the part. There is still a ton of talent on that side of the ball that they should be able to get enough stops to pull away late. But this won't be pretty. Ala: 38--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Well whatever shine was still on this game has been unceremoniously removed by LSU. The Tide are puzzlingly pedestrian this year and Ole Miss is competent, but against a largely meh schedule save for their drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. The post-Matt Corral era has seen Lane Kiffin pivot to a run-heavy attack, to his credit, attempting to play to the strengths of his roster. Bama, however, is far weaker against the pass and the Rebels aren't the team to exploit it. It would be fun to see Kiffin win this one and taunt Saban for 12 months, but it just doesn't feel likely. Tide late. Ala: 38--Miss: 24
Hoying: Hot take: I don't think the Tide are that good this season. Yes, they're a last-second field goal in Knoxville and a 2-point conversion in Baton Rouge away from still being undefeated, but they're a late field goal in Austin and 2 yards in Tuscaloosa against the Aggies away from just as easily being 5-4. They've been particularly bad on the road, not that Tennessee or LSU would be an easy out no matter where you play them. Not only is the Bama offense frustratingly inconsistent, especially through the air, the defense is running some truly bizarre schemes, which led to them getting gashed late against LSU. The pieces are on the table to Alabama to get got again, but unfortunately their remaining schedule may save them. Ole Miss is basically a worse version of Bama: the secondary is atrocious rather than bad, and the passing game has really dropped off after Matt Corral left. The Rebels have essentially played one good team, LSU, and got blown away a lot worse than the Tide did. Look out for a potential bowl game loss for Alabama, but I wouldn't bet on them losing before then. Ala: 34--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Bama feels ripe for another upset here. The Tide can score with anyone, especially with Bryce Young pulling the trigger. The Tide defense just hasn't looked the part. There is still a ton of talent on that side of the ball that they should be able to get enough stops to pull away late. But this won't be pretty. Ala: 38--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Well whatever shine was still on this game has been unceremoniously removed by LSU. The Tide are puzzlingly pedestrian this year and Ole Miss is competent, but against a largely meh schedule save for their drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. The post-Matt Corral era has seen Lane Kiffin pivot to a run-heavy attack, to his credit, attempting to play to the strengths of his roster. Bama, however, is far weaker against the pass and the Rebels aren't the team to exploit it. It would be fun to see Kiffin win this one and taunt Saban for 12 months, but it just doesn't feel likely. Tide late. Ala: 38--Miss: 24
Central Florida Knights @ Tulane Green Wave
Draper: I just can't get excited for this one. Tulane has a win over KSU which has appreciated greatly, but a lot of sweet garbage otherwise. UCF has the sweet garbage but 2 losses to boot. Good chance for Tulane to put a stamp on the Group of 5 representation in the New Year's 6 here...or for the Knights to snatch it away. Since I know nothing about these teams other than the results of the games, I'll go with the home team who has beaten a good team. Roll Wave. UCF: 17--Tulane: 20
Hoying: Who's excited to see the G5 representative in the New Year's Six this year? Just wait until a few years from now when games like this will determine a Playoff participant to go to Madison or Eugene or some other far-flung location to get blasted. UCF features a potent offense led by dual-threat former-Ole Miss Rebel QB John Rhys Plumlee, but it tends to go bye-bye at the worst times, putting up a total of 27 points in the Knights' two losses. Tulane features the better defense, famously shutting down Kansas State for probably the G5's best win this year. It'll be enough to frustrate UCF for the third time this season and put the Green Wave in the driver's seat for a spot at the big boy table. UCF: 20--Tulane: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, the most AAC football I have watched this year is as I am typing this. From what I have found, UCF seems to be the better team here. Let's go with that. UCF:28--Tulane: 24
Seeberg: Here's a mind-boggling stat, Tulane is 0 for it's last 60 against AP-ranked opponents. One such team travels their way this Saturday in UCF. The Knights' QB situation is uncertain, and that uncertainty may prove to be the Green Wave's undoing as they've been forced to prepare for both quarterbacks. Tulane's defense is solid, but that second-guessing may prove to be just enough to make them 0 for their last 61 against ranked teams. Knights take the pole position for the G5NY6 spot. UCF: 26--Tulane: 21
Hoying: Who's excited to see the G5 representative in the New Year's Six this year? Just wait until a few years from now when games like this will determine a Playoff participant to go to Madison or Eugene or some other far-flung location to get blasted. UCF features a potent offense led by dual-threat former-Ole Miss Rebel QB John Rhys Plumlee, but it tends to go bye-bye at the worst times, putting up a total of 27 points in the Knights' two losses. Tulane features the better defense, famously shutting down Kansas State for probably the G5's best win this year. It'll be enough to frustrate UCF for the third time this season and put the Green Wave in the driver's seat for a spot at the big boy table. UCF: 20--Tulane: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, the most AAC football I have watched this year is as I am typing this. From what I have found, UCF seems to be the better team here. Let's go with that. UCF:28--Tulane: 24
Seeberg: Here's a mind-boggling stat, Tulane is 0 for it's last 60 against AP-ranked opponents. One such team travels their way this Saturday in UCF. The Knights' QB situation is uncertain, and that uncertainty may prove to be the Green Wave's undoing as they've been forced to prepare for both quarterbacks. Tulane's defense is solid, but that second-guessing may prove to be just enough to make them 0 for their last 61 against ranked teams. Knights take the pole position for the G5NY6 spot. UCF: 26--Tulane: 21
Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: Oregon has been a machine since the drubbing to UGA in Week 1. Bo Nix is priiiimed for Bo Nixing, but, similar to my argument above, the Ducks are at home. Michael Penix has been flying under the radar in Seattle, but this is a tall order to enter Autzen Stadium with a talent discrepancy. Penix almost pulled it off in the Shoe, but everyone gets one. The ground attack of the Ducks is enough to keep pace with the big guns at the top of the CFP. UW: 27--UO: 40
Hoying: Don't be surprised if this year marks the Pac-12's triumphant return to the Playoff after a 5-year hiatus. Washington's a bit out of the conversation at this point but Oregon is primed to jump Tennessee and the Ohio State/Michigan loser if it can take care of business, starting with what's become quite the one-sided rivalry in the Ducks' favor. Washington looked like they got off to a hot start to the season before we learned that Michigan State was terrible, and then UCLA effortlessly blew through them. It doesn't help that the Huskies have no running game to help out Michael Penix's spectacular passing attack. Oregon has the balanced attack, scoring more than 40 points in each of their last 7 games (helps not to have to play in a tornado) and they should move past the Huskies to set up a huge rematch of last year's embarrassing losses to Utah. UW: 24--UO: 38
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure Washington has the firepower to keep up with Oregon here. Bo Nix and the Ducks have been on an absolute heater since getting thumped by UGA. I honestly can't see how this one is close. UW: 24--UO:49
Seeberg: I'm not wasting any time on this one. Washington is a competent side this year but Oregon is simply not the same team that got roasted by UGA in week one. In Autzen? No shot for the Huskies. Ducks big. UW: 20--UO: 41
Hoying: Don't be surprised if this year marks the Pac-12's triumphant return to the Playoff after a 5-year hiatus. Washington's a bit out of the conversation at this point but Oregon is primed to jump Tennessee and the Ohio State/Michigan loser if it can take care of business, starting with what's become quite the one-sided rivalry in the Ducks' favor. Washington looked like they got off to a hot start to the season before we learned that Michigan State was terrible, and then UCLA effortlessly blew through them. It doesn't help that the Huskies have no running game to help out Michael Penix's spectacular passing attack. Oregon has the balanced attack, scoring more than 40 points in each of their last 7 games (helps not to have to play in a tornado) and they should move past the Huskies to set up a huge rematch of last year's embarrassing losses to Utah. UW: 24--UO: 38
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure Washington has the firepower to keep up with Oregon here. Bo Nix and the Ducks have been on an absolute heater since getting thumped by UGA. I honestly can't see how this one is close. UW: 24--UO:49
Seeberg: I'm not wasting any time on this one. Washington is a competent side this year but Oregon is simply not the same team that got roasted by UGA in week one. In Autzen? No shot for the Huskies. Ducks big. UW: 20--UO: 41
Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: TCU can't keep getting away with this....can they????? I believe TCU has either faced a backup QB or knocked the opposing QB out in the last 6 or so games (which is crazy!). I don't think they're dirty, but they've been touched from on high. Now, Quentin Johnston is that dude and Max Duggan has been orchestrating the offense at a high level....but I just can't see it continuing forever. Texas is the darling of the power ratings despite their losses, but, once again, the game is in Darrell K Royal (and Texas has their own WR stud in Worthy). The athletes in burnt orange are better than those at all the other ranked teams TCU has seen thus far. Can the former Buckeyes QB erase the Hypnotoad from the rearview mirror? I've been wrong repeatedly, but...I'll do it again! Hook 'em. TCU: 24--UT: 34
Hoying: I have tremendous respect for TCU this year. The Big 12 is a meatgrinder without a chump team to provide breather weeks here and there, and the Frogs haven't slipped up once. Then again, there aren't really any standout teams in the conference either. The most talented team is probably...Texas. And now the Horned Frogs have to travel to Austin to try to make the magic happen for the 10th time this season. I feel like road wins have been tougher to come by than usual this year, and with the hot starts that Texas has been dishing out this year, I'm not confident in TCU's ability to outlast them (and knock out Ewers on the way). TCU: 27--UT: 31
Schweinfurth: Everyone is down on TCU, but they win. It's not pretty and they have that strange ability to rise from the dead in the second half. Here's the other thing, I don't trust Texas. They can put up points, but they also crap games away late. I can totally see that happening here. TCU: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg: I'm not much of a fan of hyperbole, but TCU is easily one of the most- if not the most- fortunate 9-0 team in college football in a long time. They've faced, to paraphrase Lebron, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, but SIX backup QBs during their games, which is the primary reason that TCU has such sterling second-half defensive statistics and comebacks. A healthy four quarters of Quinn Ewers, however, is likely why the 3-loss Longhorns (2 of which were with Ewers out, it bears mentioning) are touchdown favorites against an undefeated squad. Horned Frogs' luck runs out. TCU: 28--UT: 38
Hoying: I have tremendous respect for TCU this year. The Big 12 is a meatgrinder without a chump team to provide breather weeks here and there, and the Frogs haven't slipped up once. Then again, there aren't really any standout teams in the conference either. The most talented team is probably...Texas. And now the Horned Frogs have to travel to Austin to try to make the magic happen for the 10th time this season. I feel like road wins have been tougher to come by than usual this year, and with the hot starts that Texas has been dishing out this year, I'm not confident in TCU's ability to outlast them (and knock out Ewers on the way). TCU: 27--UT: 31
Schweinfurth: Everyone is down on TCU, but they win. It's not pretty and they have that strange ability to rise from the dead in the second half. Here's the other thing, I don't trust Texas. They can put up points, but they also crap games away late. I can totally see that happening here. TCU: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg: I'm not much of a fan of hyperbole, but TCU is easily one of the most- if not the most- fortunate 9-0 team in college football in a long time. They've faced, to paraphrase Lebron, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, but SIX backup QBs during their games, which is the primary reason that TCU has such sterling second-half defensive statistics and comebacks. A healthy four quarters of Quinn Ewers, however, is likely why the 3-loss Longhorns (2 of which were with Ewers out, it bears mentioning) are touchdown favorites against an undefeated squad. Horned Frogs' luck runs out. TCU: 28--UT: 38
Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: Was it the weather or a more systematic problem? I think the answer is: yes. The weather in Evanston played a monumental part in the struggles last week, but the lack of dominance on the Oline and the running game consistently failing to pick up short yardage when needed is incredibly concerning. The Buckeyes offense is dependent on the pass setting up the run (and the pass). If the passing game is removed and the threat of going over the top is gone, some flaws were shown. The weather isn't going to be great, but I don't think the wind will be the nullifier it was this past week. CJ rights the ship with a nice efficient day orchestrating the offense while the RBs look a little better when the boxes are lighter. I don't expect vintage Stroud, but 350 and 3 should take place. Marv continues his personal dominance and Miyan gets another 2 on the ground. It won't be the most lopsided win, but it will get us back on track. IU: 13--OSU: 48
Hoying: The age of excuses is over. Road game? Bad weather? Opponent with decent defense? Not this time. It's not time to sound the warning bells yet; rather, ready the air raid sirens as the Bucks prepare to bomb away on another outmatched opponent. That being said, if Ohio State can't move the ball against Indiana, it may be time to worry. Or not: in 2014 the Hoosiers led the Bucks deep into the second half before Jalin Marshall put the team on his shoulders. And I shouldn't have to remind you what a constant heart attack November 2002 was. As long as the results keep going in the W column, there's hope for this team to achieve greatness. I think we'd all just like to see it return sooner rather than later. I expect it will. IU: 6--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: Bucks are back in the Shoe and really, this team has played much better at home. I think last week was needed in a way that Day can show the video and work on the run game even more. This team is near unstoppable when they can be balanced and the lack of an aerial attack really put this team in a bind. Look, Ohio State does not lose to Indiana. It's not gonna happen this week. I really think last week was the wake up call this team needed. Time to get that train rolling toward The Game. IU: 14--OSU: 52
Seeberg: Well last week was dreary in just about every sense of the word. I don't know if there was a prop bet on any site that would've allowed you to put money on CJ Stroud having more rushing yards than passing yards, but I'm guessing a $10 bet would've netted you something in the vicinity of the recent powerball windfall. Regardless, now what's a Hoosier anyway? comes to town and this team has been a thorn in the side of the Buckeyes, at least during Urban Meyer's tenure. Two 40+-point wins sandwiched around the weird COVID year (where the Buckeyes were up 35-7 before falling asleep at the wheel) and it's clear that Ryan Day hasn't taken the Hoosiers lightly. This particular IU team is in a down cycle, starting 3-0 (including a now-baffling win over Illinois) before dropping six straight against the likes of Rutgers and Nebraska. Yeesh. Get points, get turnovers, and PLEASE continue to try to get healthy. IU: 10--OSU: 45
Hoying: The age of excuses is over. Road game? Bad weather? Opponent with decent defense? Not this time. It's not time to sound the warning bells yet; rather, ready the air raid sirens as the Bucks prepare to bomb away on another outmatched opponent. That being said, if Ohio State can't move the ball against Indiana, it may be time to worry. Or not: in 2014 the Hoosiers led the Bucks deep into the second half before Jalin Marshall put the team on his shoulders. And I shouldn't have to remind you what a constant heart attack November 2002 was. As long as the results keep going in the W column, there's hope for this team to achieve greatness. I think we'd all just like to see it return sooner rather than later. I expect it will. IU: 6--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: Bucks are back in the Shoe and really, this team has played much better at home. I think last week was needed in a way that Day can show the video and work on the run game even more. This team is near unstoppable when they can be balanced and the lack of an aerial attack really put this team in a bind. Look, Ohio State does not lose to Indiana. It's not gonna happen this week. I really think last week was the wake up call this team needed. Time to get that train rolling toward The Game. IU: 14--OSU: 52
Seeberg: Well last week was dreary in just about every sense of the word. I don't know if there was a prop bet on any site that would've allowed you to put money on CJ Stroud having more rushing yards than passing yards, but I'm guessing a $10 bet would've netted you something in the vicinity of the recent powerball windfall. Regardless, now what's a Hoosier anyway? comes to town and this team has been a thorn in the side of the Buckeyes, at least during Urban Meyer's tenure. Two 40+-point wins sandwiched around the weird COVID year (where the Buckeyes were up 35-7 before falling asleep at the wheel) and it's clear that Ryan Day hasn't taken the Hoosiers lightly. This particular IU team is in a down cycle, starting 3-0 (including a now-baffling win over Illinois) before dropping six straight against the likes of Rutgers and Nebraska. Yeesh. Get points, get turnovers, and PLEASE continue to try to get healthy. IU: 10--OSU: 45
Upset Special
Draper: Purdue over Illinois
Hoying: Mississippi State over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Michigan
Seeberg: Arkansas over LSU
