1.) Hoying 29-5 (4-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 28-6 (2-9 upset)
3.) Seeberg 26-8 (1-9 upset)
3.) Draper 26-8 (1-9 upset)
Forgive me for recycling a post name from five years ago. But once again we find ourselves in November and once again, the nation's two premier West divisions are up for grabs. As for the East, the SEC's was decided last week (see ya later, Florida Gator), and the B1G's not on the table for a couple more weeks. Five years ago...hmmm...what else happened that year...
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draper: Minny continues their quest to Row the Boat to Indy, but I fear this may be a serious stumbling block on that mission. There is a real chance that their best win is over.....South Dakota State? Probably not, but it's a possibility. Blessed with a schedule that would make the SEC out of conference blush, the Gophers are riding high, but in come the Nittany Lions chugging along. I've watched some PSU games this year and haven't been particularly impressed. Yes, they took down Michigan and looked great...early, at home, during a white-out (congrats on reaching .500!) and then all but blew it in the final quarter. This is arguably the biggest game in Minnesota in years, but I don't think they have the horses. The stadium will be rocking, but too much talent coming to town. PSU: 28 -- Minn: 17
Hoying: All aboard the disrespekt train. The Gophers are getting no love from any corner: they're about a touchdown dogs at home, and they came in at a miserable #17 in the initial Playoff rankings (though a respectable #9 here at Let's Go Bucks!). And all this despite being undefeated and off to their best start since 1941, when they finished 8-0. All that being said, is this team actually good? Hard to say. They've righted the boat since starting the season with four ghastly wins against bad opponents, but recent blowouts over the likes of Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland aren't going to move the needle. The running game is working quite nicely, but again, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. Penn State, meanwhile, has been playing real actual teams, a fact not lost on the Playoff committee (though PSU should have been ranked ahead of Alabama as well). The Lions have another one of those nasty defenses that are all the rage in the B1G this year. The offense is good at best, but it won't matter against a Minnesota defense that, while improved, has had too many suspect performances this season. This is the biggest game for Minnesota in, like, forever, but they're going to be overwhelmed in this one. Enjoy that contact extension your squishy-soft backloaded schedule bought you, PJ. PSU: 30--Minn: 16
Schweinfurth: Good for the Row-Boaters, er, Gophers. They haven't been this relevant since Lawrance Maroney was running over defenses. Still, undefeated this late in the season, regardless of schedule, is something to be proud of. I just don't see it lasting past this week. Let's be honest, it would almost be funny to watch Minnesota go undefeated through the west and get trounced by OSU...but I enjoy breaking the kitty cat's hearts more. Kyle Clifford and D.J. Hamler should be all the Nittany Kitties need to win. I do think Minnesota hangs for at least a half. PSU: 31--Minn: 20
Seeberg: Does anybody trust the Gophers? Well the committee certainly didn't given they're ranking below about a half-dozen teams with TWO losses. Nonetheless, this weekend provides a massive stepping stone to get where they want to go. Remember, our 2014 Buckeyes started at #16 in the initial rankings and wound up hoisting the golden lipstick. However, I don't think the golden buck-tooths have the generational type of talent that the Buckeye Squad of half a decade ago possessed. Penn State, meanwhile, has beaten a team or two with a pulse which has them at #4. The Gophers have confidence, and a home game, which certainly gives them a puncher's chance. If they were 6-2 and unranked I might even make them my upset pick. But this is a ranked vs. ranked game and the Lions have too much firepower to drop this one. Besides, we can't ruin another marquee OSU home game with a lousy B1G west upset just before it, right? *Cough Wisconsin cough*. Franklin's crew pulls away in the second half. PSU: 38--Minn: 21
Louisiana State Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: LSU has, arguably, the best resume in college football but the variability is off the charts. Great wins over Auburn and Florida (both at home) a decent win at Texas that is quickly losing it's luster, as a steaming pile of doggy doo. Alabama, on the other hand, has....a steamy pile of doggy doo on their resume. This was circled long ago as the Tiguhs season and it certainly holds true. One thing about Nick Saban....he rarely loses big games. While Bama has trucked the Little Sisters of the Poor on their schedule each week, the sheer talent is extremely strong. Throw in a Tuscaloosa crowd (since they'll likely show up for this one), and it's going to be rough for Mr. Burrow. LSU has been very good running the ball of late to complement the passing game. While UF and Auburn have great D-lines, I'm not convinced their defensive secondary and linebacker play is up to snuff. Bama is...Bama. If Tua plays, I expect a statement from the Tide reminding us to remember that the big elephant in the room is still around. Jerry Jeudy and Tua keep the petal to the metal and the Tide roll....again. LSU: 17 -- Bama: 30
Hoying: I made the mistake of picking LSU exactly once in the last seven years, all of which have seen Tide victories. The year of my mistake was 2015, which was also only time in the last seven years LSU was ranked ahead of Alabama for this matchup. In that game, LSU's "quarterback," Brandon Harris, completed 6 of 19 attempts, and noted Heisman lock-turned-fizzle Leonard Fournette rushed for 31 yards on 19 carries. I don't think that's going to happen this year, as (1) LSU has a decent QB for the first time since Matt Flynn, and (2) Bama's defense isn't quite a world-beater this year. It's still better than LSU's defense, though. Remember that Florida attack that did nothing but nothing against UGA? They hung up 28 on LSU, in Death Valley. This game may come down to Alabama's depth at QB. Tua isn't likely to be at 100%, and we saw in last year's SEC Championship what the Tide look like when he's hobbled. And there's no Jalen Hurts to save him anymore. Mac Jones is probably better than Kyle Trask, or BoNix, each of whom had some success against the LSU secondary, but can he outpace Joe Burrow? I think the Auburn game exposed the Tigers (these Tigers) a bit. LSU shouldn't look that awful in the red zone with a decently mobile quarterback. That game shouldn't have been that close, and it doesn't bode well for an LSU team that now has to go on the road and defend what might be the best WR corps in America, no matter who's throwing to them. *Sigh*. Bama goes back to #1 with a gritty home win. LSU: 23--Bama: 27
Schweinfurth: Tua had ankle surgery and they expect him to be 100% two weeks later? I'm not buying it. I've had the dreaded high ankle sprain and, surgery or not, it takes at least 3 good weeks to heal to 90%. Bama's defense hasn't looked the same this year either after losing two (!) starting linebackers. LSU has found something on offense and Joe Burrow is lighting everyone up. Let's compare schedules too: Alabama has not played a team that currently has a winning record. LSU has beaten two* top 10 teams (*at the time they played and not the CFP rankings). LSU just seems to be on track to run the SEC this year, and I tend to agree but it is sooo hard to pick against Saban. LSU: 24--Bama: 21
Seeberg: Damn, the one year this game REALLY needed to be in Death Valley. You know, the year the Bayou Bengals FINALLY have an offense! Only two questions matter here: Where is the game being played? Bama. Darn. Where is Tua? This one we don't know. I'd be positively stunned if he isn't starting the game, but we just have no idea how healthy or not he is. High ankle sprains are fickle mistresses (trust me...I know. My right ankle will be roughly 92% for the rest of my life because I didn't have access to all the stuff Tua has when I severely sprained my ankle during a pickup basketball game over a decade ago). Tangent aside, a 100% Tua at home wins this game more often than not. Oddly both teams have relied heavily on their offenses this season, with surprisingly porous defensive outputs. To me, the entire game comes down to one joint at the bottom of a right leg. I don't trust Tua to be 100% 3 weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that required surgery, so I don't trust Bama to outscore the Tigers (never thought I'd see that sentence). Geaux Joey! LSU: 31--Bama: 26
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: I'll be honest, I had no idea this game was happening this week; and quite frankly, I don't care. This game is going to be all kinds of boring. A Badger win and Gopher loss would essentially make the Axe for the West Championship. The thing about Iowa is they're always good a coming out of nowhere and winning a dumb game. Unfortunately for them, that happened vs. Iowa State this year...and this is in Madison. I can't see the Badgers dropping this at home after two straight losses. Yes, they lost to a terrible Illinois team and were blown out in Columbus, but I can't imagine this team going gentle into that goodnight. This will be an old school B1G slobberknocker that finishes in about 2 hours. Wisconsin wins and the nation ignores it. Iowa: 10 -- UW: 20
Hoying: All eyes are on Minnesota currently enjoying a 2-game cushion atop the B1G West, but each of these teams is right in the thick of it. All it takes is a Gopher loss to the Nittany Lions (see above) and suddenly the winner of this game controls its own destiny for a Big Ten title. I'm not sure there's a ranked team in the country more unfairly ignored than Iowa. Yes, their offense looked atrocious against Michigan and Penn State, and they needed a literal punt-to-win against the Cyclones, but the reason Iowa wasn't run out of any of those games was their stout defense has been up to the challenge week in and week out all year. And they're built to handle the Badgers as well, boasting the nation's #8 rush defense, surrendering only 88 yards a game (even better than a certain scarlet and gray team). Unfortunately for them, they're paying a visit to the nation's top defense, even after the embarrassment the Badgers suffered against the Buckeyes. If you're the Buckeyes, you can move the ball against Wisconsin, but can the same be said about Iowa? Almost certainly NO. In other words, this will look like every other Iowa game of import this year: low-scoring and ugly. The last time Iowa won the West (in that mirage of a 2015 undefeated regular season), the road to the division title went through Camp Randall, and the Hawkeyes needed everything in the bag to escape with a victory (predicted by exactly 1 person here). Herky hasn't beaten the Badgers since. Don't expect that to change here. Iowa: 9--UW: 10
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, the annual death slog for the Heartland Trophy. Seriously take one of these teams, put a mirror in front of it and you have the other team. The difference here is at tailback and defense. Wisconsin, despite getting shredded by the Buckeyes, are still and excellent defense and feast on teams like Iowa. Johnathan Taylor still won't put up the Hesiman numbers he had before the OSU game, but his explosiveness is something the Hawkeyes just can't match. First one to score a TD wins. Iowa: 9--UW: 13
Seeberg: Mamma Mia, here we go again. Another knockdown, drag-out, will-look-like-it-was-played-in-1957 B1G matchup. Both teams ugly the game up. Iowa on purpose with a solid D but middling O. Wisconsin out of necessity because even though it likes to pretend it can throw the ball (Russell Wilson year aside), it really, really can't. It's as if these two are mirror images, except Wisconsin is the original and Iowa is the semi-foggy-after-a-hot-shower reflection. In Camp Randall there's just no way Iowa sneaks out of here with a win because double-digit points is highly unlikely. Just wait for the highlight (nonplural there, folks) and avoid the 3+ hours of something resembling your grandfather's dad's football. Iowa: 6--UW: 17
Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Remember when Maryland was ranked? Me neither! This team has been in freefall after the marquee win over ranked Syracuse in week 2. I don't see much room for hope of rebounding for the Terps here. I suppose their best hope is that OSU gets super excited with the number 1 ranking and forgets how to play football, but little chance of that. I do expect a little bit of laziness when no one on OSU will take the next 2 weeks seriously, but Coach Day should be able to squash it soon. The key for the studs is to stay in the Heisman race and hellooooo stat padding season. Chase Young records another 2.5 sacks (breaking the OSU single season sack record), JK runs for 150 and is pulled early, while Fields reminds the nation that he's another name from Columbus vying for New York. No mercy. Mary: 10 -- OSU: 55
Hoying: Picture the scene from Terminator 2: Judgment Day, when Sarah Connor desperately tries to warn the families at the playground about the impending nuclear attack by Skynet. The kids at the playground are Maryland, the atomic bomb is Ohio State, and Sarah Connor outside the fence is...also Maryland? From the past? Or the future? The analogy starts to break down but the key point to remember is that the Buckeyes are going to annihilate the Terrapins in this game. Maryland is a Rutgers away from their last 6 games being 4 blowout losses and getting beaten by Temple and Indiana. RB Anthony McFarland (shudder), who gashed the Buckeyes all day last year, is now a bit player in an offense that hasn't worked since the aforementioned Rutgers laugher. I don't know what happened in College Park last year but it sure as hell isn't happening against this year's Buckeye defense. Let's focus on more interesting matters: the spread in this game is Ohio State -44, and Maryland beat Rutgers by 41 a month ago. What is the spread next week going to be? Are we going to be in Savannah State territory? Mary: 0--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: I get the luxury of writing this after the Chase Young news. Great. Look, Ohio State wins big. The starers are in for 3ish quarters and out. We won't see much of Field's legs the next two weeks, just don't take unnecessary hits. With that said, of all weeks to be suspended, this is probably the best case scenario. The Silver Bullets are coached much better this year and do a very good job staying home and in tackling lanes. McFarland shouldn't have a day like last year. What suck is that Young's Heisman campaign is over. I really do expect him back before the Penn State game, if not earlier. Not much else to say but Go Bucks. MD: 6--OSU: 45
Seeberg: Wow, such a B1G week this week! Then again, we must always pick our beloved Buckeyes. So, the question this week is: Will the rankings start to seep into the heads of the scarlet and gray? To be honest, even if so, it will only be for a week as the Bama/LSU winner will almost certainly (and rightfully, if we're being honest) be #1 at this time next week. Add to that the fact that the Terrapins still have the running back that went all Biakabutuka on the Buckeyes to the tune of 295 yards last season, and this game should still get enough attention to warrant a quickly-becoming-customary Buckeye blowout. My hope is that Chase Young, currently of the 13.5 sacks, gets 2 in this one, then 2 against Rutgers and then needs just 2.5 against PSU and TTUN to get 20 which is just outlandish...and awesome...and Heisman-worthy. Shut down the run, keep everyone healthy, and then onto the glorified scrimmage next week. MD: 3--OSU: 52
Upset Special
Draper: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest
Hoying: TCU over Baylor
Schweinfurth: Duke over Notre Dame
Seeberg: Wyoming over Boise State
