COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - BUCKEYES VS. BAMA

Final Post-Bowl Standings:

1.) Draper 30-10 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 30-10 (1-7 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 29-11 (2-6 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: This whole year has been about erasing the pain of the Clemson loss last year.  Does this Buckeye team has the fire and will for one more win against, I hate to say it, but a team on another level offensively than Clemson?  The truth is that there have been 4 teams in the Playoff Era on a different plane: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.  Alabama can almost be argued to be in a territory by itself.  However, this year's Alabama squad has a different core makeup than those of the past.  Saban was always able to win with a stalwart shutdown defense and an offense that ran the ball and didn't make mistakes.  Now, we see an offensive juggernaut coupled with an OK-mediocre defense.  The Bama offense led by Jones, Smith, and Harris (and maybe Waddle) is nearly unstoppable.  3 of those listed are NFL first rounders now and that doesn't even mention the line that Bama is known for.  Couple that with the sentience that the Tide have gained by applying smart analytic decision making, and it's no bueno for the other team.  While this seems like a non-starter for the Buckeyes, OSU hasn't been too shabby on offense when given the chance with a better QB than Bama, very close if not equal skill positions and lines.  The slight difference is the consistency of the Bama offense.  But consistency doesn't matter here.  I'm all about variance exploitation, but the Bucks HAVE to hit on all cylinders like in the Sugar Bowl.  This may be the highest over/under in a title game, but I'd still take the over in this perceived shootout.  The Bucks need to punch early and often on offense and not fall behind.  Bama thrives on winning games before the coin flip whereas the Bucks win in the 4th.  If it's close in the 4th, the hours of blood, sweat, and tears in the weight room before the season started show up.  Fields is out to show that last week was the norm and he's ready for prime time. When in doubt, take the better QB.  Go Bucks and bring home #9. OSU: 48--Bama: 45
Hoying: I look at these teams on paper and I see a slightly better passing attack for Alabama, a significantly better rushing attack for Ohio State (just like we all thought in October, right?), a slightly better run defense for the Buckeyes, and, well, the loss of Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, and Jordan Fuller being felt particularly hard this season. I look at Alabama's red zone effectiveness in contrast to Ohio State's inexplicable struggles. I think about the players, the ones we still don't know about, that will not be suiting up for the Scarlet and Gray because of the 'rona, while Alabama has been almost entirely spared this season. I get that sense of lingering dread that caused me to pick Clemson to win the Sugar Bowl by multiple scores. But then I look at both of these teams a little more closely. I see that the ceiling is higher for Ohio State than it is for Alabama. Between the two teams, Ohio State has by far the best win, and it was the game they just played, against the best opponent either team has faced this year. Yeah, what Alabama did to Notre Dame might have been more methodical, and they were never, ever going to lose that game, but that was Notre Dame. Ohio State just pantsed Clemson, the co-team of the Playoff era with Alabama, in a total team effort. We've seen it again and again in the Meyer/Day era: when these Buckeyes get rolling against top-level competition, they brake for nobody unless they start to lose focus (Iowa, Purdue) or just yeet the game away (Clemson last year). I'm not saying the Bucks can't give away this game against Alabama; they spent the better part of two quarters trying to do just that the last time these teams played. But I don't care if Alabama has played 11 SEC opponents this season and dominated nearly all of them. They haven't played anyone in Ohio State's galaxy (Pawwwwwwwl), and they're due for a rude awakening. The Buckeyes follow up their amazing Sugar Bowl win with a deserving sequel, and complete Nick Saban's first three-year title drought in Tuscaloosa. OSU: 45--Bama: 35
Schweinfurth: Oh my goodness what a season this has been. One needs only to look at what this team has been through this year to realize this is a special Buckeye team: a canceled and restarted season, stop and go games, positive tests, positive tests the Friday before the B1G Championship Game, Fields getting rocked and having one of the best games by an OSU QB. This team has been though so much, and has the calluses to prove it. So now the Buckeyes are looking up at Mount Alabama. Bama has blown through the SEC this year with relatively little resistance. I think the biggest speed bump Bama had was Ole Miss. What that team showed is that you can score a lot of points on the Alabama defense. Yes there is NFL talent on the Bama D, but there is also NFL talent on the Ohio State Offense. When this game was first announced, I asked my colleagues a simple question, "Has Mac Jones been hit in any of his games this year?" I got a resounding no. This will be the key. Hit Mac Jones and make him uncomfortable. The other is limiting the big play. I didn't look this up, but I am going to go with what Chris Fowler said during the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State doesn't give up touchdowns when teams don't get plays of over 20 yards. I will own up to the fact I didn't think the Bucks could beat Clemson. That dragon has been slayed (and exposed to be a clown). The Buckeyes control both lines of scrimmage again, Sermon has a day (another 85 yards through the heart of the south?), Fields shows why he is a top QB prospect and Ohio State writes a storybook ending to a season that could be featured in a 30 for 30. OHIO AGAINST THE WORLD! GO BUCKS, BEAT BAMA! OSU: 49--Bama: 42

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Alabama

1. Underdog Mentality

I said it in 2015 and I'll say it again here. This Ohio State team plays like a different animal when the whole world counts them out. By my count, the Buckeyes haven't lost a game in which they were a big underdog since the game that will not be named closed out the 2011 regular season. They haven't lost much at all, and most of the losses revealed some lack of focus. The Buckeyes aren't going to turtle this away like they did against Michigan State in 2015, and they aren't going to get punked and roll over like they did against Iowa in 2017 or Purdue in 2018. Especially when they have such delicious bulletin board material to work with. Some of it writes itself: Alabama had the Heisman winner, three finalists overall, and swept the offensive awards (other than TE). Notably, the Tide OL won the Joe Moore award, an award for which the slobs were not even finalists. You look at the way the Buckeye O-line has played in their last three games and tell me if they're lacking in skill or motivation. Add to that the random Internet idiots and specific Internet idiots (hi, baby girl Saban) crowing about how Ohio State is trying to duck this game and how they shouldn't have made the Playoff in the first place. Even Nick himself had the Buckeyes at #5 in his final ballot. If Ohio State comes out fully focused and locked in, nobody is beating them.

2. So Fresh and So Clean, Clean

We've all had the pleasure of hearing nonstop over the last month or so (or the whole season) that a team that plays 6 regular season games doesn't belong in the Playoff. The Buckeyes flattened the last chump who put his coaches' poll ballot where his mouth was, but Dabo did have a point. You play fewer games, you amass fewer injuries. True, the Buckeyes lost nickel corner Cameron Brown in their win over Penn State, but Alabama lost a receiver who might be better than the Heisman winner (Jaylen Waddle) and the All-American anchor of what is apparently the nation's best O-line (Landon Dickerson), and oh yeah, their nickel corner (Malachi Moore). Who knows which of these guys, if any, will play, but Dickerson at least seems to be out for Monday's game. That could be a huge problem going against a Buckeye D-line that lived in the backfield and made life miserable for Trevor Lawrence in New Orleans. At least Lawrence could use his mobility to escape the onslaught. The same can't be said for another Playoff QB...

3. Stonewall Mac

Three of the four starting quarterbacks in this year's Playoff could plausibly be described as dual threats (to varying degrees: Fields > Lawrence > Book). The fourth is definitively not so. To be fair, he finished third in the Heisman voting and probably would have won if Devonta's incredible season didn't siphon off most of his votes, but he is vulnerable to pressure. Mr. Jones is sitting on net +3 yards rushing on the year, and took multiple negative plays against each of Florida and Georgia. And now he faces the best pass rushing D-line he'll see all year, with a few great blitzing linebackers thrown in the mix. Lawrence was excellent at hitting his checkdown man while falling or sprinting backwards; can Mac do the same?

4. Après Sark, le Deluge

It's tough to work two jobs at the same time, especially when both are the all-world consuming vocations of big time top level college football coaching. As you've probably heard, Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian will be coaching the Texas Longhorns as soon as this game is over, and he's taking Alabama OL coach Kyle Flood with him. Now, Bama can churn through top level coordinators like nobody else (who's going to refuse a call from Nick Saban?), but for the moment the Tide have an offensive staff with one foot out the door and knowing full well that they have their work cut out for them in Austin. If they're not on their A game in their swan song, and the Crimson juggernaut starts to look mortal, Alabama could be in serious trouble. Also, don't forget, Sark has been here before, albeit with the script flipped. When Lane Kiffin left just before the end of the 2016 season to go to Florida Atlantic, Sark jumped into the acting OC role for the national championship against Clemson. The Tide did not win that game. The Tide didn't win the 2018 national championship either, after OC Mike Locksley was hired away by the Maryland Terrapins prior to the Playoff but coached through Bama's blowout loss in the championship. Could this be a trend?

5. Games on Film

Dabo famously quipped that Ohio State would be a quick film study, as the Tigers would only need to watch 6 games worth as compared to a normal 12 game season. As it turns out, Clemson might've appreciated a few more opportunities to study the Buckeyes before they got run out of the Superdome. Ryan Day remains an intuitively excellent offensive coach, and while the Buckeye bag of tricks is likely significantly emptier after the Sugar Bowl, I expect Alabama to be left guessing on Monday more than normal. Ohio State, in contrast, has a full season's worth of Alabama game film to analyze. Throw in the fact that Ohio State has been starting all sorts of varied lineups as the year has gone on, and the Buckeyes may have an advantage in the opponent analysis department.

6. Weaksauce D

Huh? you say. Alabama has a weaksauce defense? The Tide have the best Power 5 defense outside of the Big Ten West! They've held seven of their last eight opponents below 20 points! Yes, these are all true, but there's an inconvenient truth regarding these dominating defensive performances: Alabama has been playing bad offenses. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Georgia, and LSU aren't awful, but the only two real offenses Alabama has faced this year were Florida and Ole Miss, and the Tide failed miserably against both of them. Ole Miss hit Alabama with a balanced attack and racked up 647 yards, while Florida managed to stay within a touchdown against the Tide (and might have won without their bonkers end-of-half clock management) despite being unable to do anything on the ground. That's good news for a Buckeye team that just got finished lighting up a very good Clemson secondary and have been basically running the ball at will ever since Trey Sermon took over for Master Teague. The Silver Bullets' struggles have been well documented, but there's no reason not to expect Ohio State's offense to give Bama fits as well.

7. Handling the ACC

What do Clemson and Alabama have in common? Both manhandled Notre Dame at the end of the season, first the Tigers, then the Tide. Alabama slowly strangled the Domers to death after jumping out to a quick lead, whereas Clemson kept pounding on the Irish throughout the game. Could these games provide a clue as to what could happen on Monday? Well, Ohio State just got done playing one of the teams that crushed the Irish this season, and they gave the victor a lovely transitive walloping. If Alabama played Notre Dame about as well as Clemson did, what does that mean for their chances against the Buckeyes on Monday?

8. Heismen Curse

Heisman winners have been hit-or-miss in postseason games over the years. I don't need to remind you that Ohio State's own Archie Griffin and Troy Smith missed out on national championships after winning the award. Three of the last five Heisman winners to play for the title have come up short (Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray), in contrast to the unflappable Heisman winners Joe Burrow and...Alabama's Derrick Henry (hmm). Devonta Smith seems like a humble guy and a real dude overall, and the Heisman celebration tour is decidedly more muted than in prior years, but will his performance suffer? And what of the other finalists? I mentioned in my list of reasons Alabama will win that the Tide have the first trio of top 5 Heisman finishers since 1946 Army, and that the Black Knights won the title that year. Well, I misled you a little. 1946 Army did go 9-0-1, and they did win a share of a title, but that one tie? That was a scoreless tie against Notre Dame, who also went 9-0-1 and won the consensus title that year.

9. Revenge Factor

Revenge factor? Didn't Ohio State win the last time these two teams met? And wasn't that six years ago, when none of the current players were playing for either of these teams? Yes, but there happens to be a player on Ohio State's roster that has seen the Tide before: Justin Fields. Fields, of course, was not the starting QB for the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs that faced Alabama in the SEC Championship (that was Jake Fromm for some unfathomable reason), but he did see some action in that game, tossing one incomplete pass and running the ball three times. You may remember that awful fake punt that essentially gifted the game to the Tide late. Yup, that was Fields (not his fault the play sucked, though). Thankfully, the Ohio State offensive planners are nowhere near the train wreck that is Kirby Smart's staff and Justin should be able to make some magic to avenge a prior lost Playoff spot.

10. As Gold Is Tested by Fire

OK, so neither of these teams has found themselves in a great deal of trouble on the field this season. Alabama had a bit of a problem stopping Ole Miss for two and a half quarters and saw Florida pull within 6 points of a victory late in the SEC title game, and they trailed at half against Georgia, but that was about it. Ohio State, likewise, gave Indiana the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead late, and took 3 quarters to figure out to run the dang ball against Northwestern, but was otherwise never seriously threatened. Off the field, however, it's been a different story. The Buckeyes have seen their schedule modified, cancelled, uncancelled and remodified, cut nearly in half by week-to-week cancellations, become ineligible for the B1G Championship, become re-eligible for the B1G Championship just in time to go, and have generally waited on pins and needles week after week to see whether each Saturday's matchup would be cancelled at the last minute. It must have been exhausting. But the Buckeyes are still standing, still undefeated, just played their best game of the season, and are cleared to play one more. The last two Buckeye national champions have overcome tremendous adversity, whether on or off the field, to claim their crowns. The ones who made it look easy (1996, 1998, 2006, 2019) have always come up just short. 

Ten Reasons Alabama Beats Ohio State

1. Can't Stop Won't Stop

Alabama features the best offense Ohio State has seen since probably 2005 Texas. The 2005 Buckeyes were able to grind the Longhorn attack to a near halt, but that team had the best set of linebackers in school history and sent three DB's to the following year's NFL draft. This year's version of the Buckeyes face a bit more of a pick your poison, as three Bama skill players finished in the top five of the Heisman voting, including the first WR to receive the award since the College Gameday court jester. The last team to put three Heisman finalists in the top five was 1946 Army, who went 9-0-1 and won a national championship. Oh, and the big guys up front making it happen just won the prize for top OL in the nation. Yes, the Tide only put 31 points up on Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl, but that was a Tresselball, slow-roll-your-chump-opponent performance for the ages. Bama now has the luxury of having saved everything they had in the Playoff tank for the Silver Bullets.

2. Primary Target: Secondary

So who is tasked with stopping this unstoppable Crimson onslaught on the back end? A thoroughly average secondary. Criticism of the Buckeye DBs has been a bit overblown this season; they're right in the middle of the pack in terms of YPA and QBR, and their TD : INT ratio of 11 : 7 isn't horrible either. Yes, the Buckeyes give up a ton of yards per game, but that's to be expected when (i) Ohio State scores in a flash and gives their opponents a ton of possessions, and (ii) running the ball against the Buckeye front is completely pointless. That being said, see #1 above. An average defense is not going to make the cut against a passing attack more lethal than last year's Joe Burrow juggernaut. The back seven may have stopped Trevor Lawrence from finding the end zone too often, but he still put up a quiet 400 yards. If Bama's receivers are getting the ball in space, look out.

3. One Game Season (not this one)

In the 1969 season finale, the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes suffered probably the worst loss in team history, a 24-12 upset at the hands of That Team Up North, denying them what would have been a second straight national championship. For the next 12 months, the Buckeyes obsessed over this loss, even having a rug installed in the locker room with the score of the 1969 game printed on it. And sure enough, the Buckeyes avenged their loss to the Wolverines the following season to cap a 9-0 regular season. Then they went to the Rose Bowl and faded down the stretch against the #12 Stanford Indians, narrowly missing out on the national title for a second straight season. The point is, how much of this season has been focused on the national championship, and how much has been a buildup to a revenge game against Clemson? Take a good look at how the Buckeyes played against Northwestern, and then how they looked 2 weeks later against the Tigers. How much of the prep time against the Wildcats was devoted to, perhaps, a different anticipated opponent? And, if so, have the Buckeyes spent any extra time in this truncated season preparing for Alabama? Not likely.

4. Past Perfect + Future Perfect

As stated above, I don't think it's any secret that the Buckeyes were more motivated and prepared for Clemson than any of their other hapless opponents this season. But preparation is meaningless without execution, and Ohio State's execution in the Sugar Bowl was nearly flawless. Sure, there was Fields's pick in the end zone that wiped 3 points off the board, and a couple of misses in coverage, and whatever the Buckeyes were trying to do to slow their own momentum on their first possession, but Clemson was the team crumbling under the pressure, not Ohio State. Think back to the 2014-15 Playoff. Ohio State made boatloads of errors in both the Alabama and Oregon games but was able to pretty much dominate both teams regardless. This year's Alabama team is a whole different beast. The Buckeyes have really only played two complete near-perfect games this year (Michigan State and Clemson...maybe you can throw in Nebraska as well); they're going to need a third to walk away Monday as champions. Alabama merely needs to be very good.

5. Crimson Zone > Scarlet Zone

Why did Ohio State lose the 2019 Fiesta Bowl? There are about 20 answers to that question, but the most glaring issue was the Buckeyes' performance in the red zone. Ohio State reached the red zone on three drives and came away with three field goals. Clemson, contrariwise, scored a touchdown on their only red zone possession. Have the Buckeyes fixed this problem in 2020? No, it has gotten worse. The 2019 Buckeyes actually excelled overall at red zone production throughout the year, with a 78.67% TD rate matched at the Power 5 level only by LSU (exactly matched, eerily enough). This year? The Buckeyes are posting a nasty 64.10% TD rate, and a paltry 76.92% overall scoring rate, in the red zone. That's right, the 2019 Buckeyes were better at scoring TDs in the red zone than the 2020 Buckeyes are at getting any points in the same area. How about the Buckeyes' championship opponent, sporting the nation's top offense? 77.42% TD rate and 91.94% overall scoring rate. And these stats aren't padded against the Citadels and Charleston Southerns of the world, either. The Buckeyes didn't settle for any field goals against Clemson this time, but an interception stole one red zone scoring opportunity, and the Buckeyes would have lost a TD without Skalski's targeting call. Bend but don't break may not be an option for the Silver Bullets on Monday night.

6. Bustin Fields

In the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl, I found myself struck by how much Ohio State's game plan revolved around moving Justin Fields all over the place. Whether on designed runs or rollouts, Fields didn't seem to stay limited to the pocket very often, and I wondered how much his knee injury had limited his (and the Buckeye offense's) true potential in last year's loss to Clemson. Now, once again, we find ourselves wondering how and to what extent Fields is limited after another huge hit. Sure, on Friday, Justin just took a licking and kept on ticking, proving he can still toss darts over the safeties' heads even after his rack of ribs got smoked, but how much is he willing/able to run with the ball if he needs to? Fields's excellent mobility is his most glaring advantage over his counterpart in this game, and it's hard to imagine the Buckeye offense matching the Tide blow for blow with their star QB at less than 100%. And, though Fields is as tough a customer as any who've worn the scarlet and gray, it's not hard to imagine how another hard hit could knock him out of the game for good.

7. Five Below

Unless you start losing star players down the stretch, your team is only going to be strengthened by each additional live-fire rep they can get. And as we've seen this season, the Buckeyes have faced problems in different places on the field (*cough* *secondary*) that they haven't had many opportunities to repair. Alabama has faced 11 different SEC opponents and the #4 team in the country, while Ohio State has only had 7 chances total to learn and progress in real games in this most bizarre of bizarro seasons. And, as stated above, they've looked good start-to-finish in, at most, three of them. Thankfully, two of those were in the last three games the Buckeyes have played, but there was the clunker against Northwestern sandwiched in the middle. It doesn't help when the shortest gap between games in the second half of the season was between the Big Ten Championship and the Sugar Bowl. Alabama perfected their craft by sometime around the Georgia game, which was before Ohio State even saw the field. The Tide, like the Buckeyes, looked vulnerable on championship weekend, but that was the only blip in a stretch that's been longer the entire 2020 Buckeye season. 

8. The Ring King

Ryan Day has been a tremendous success in his 2+ years as Ohio State's head coach, racking up one loss in his first 24 games. But, uh, the guy on the other sideline is no slouch either. All he's done is win five national championships in thirteen years as coach of Alabama, after winning another natty at LSU. He has more wins than any active FBS coach not named Mack Brown (Mack has double his losses), and before last year's blip, his teams finished ranked #1 or #2 four years running, a trend sure to continue this season regardless of Monday's outcome. That being said, his Alabama teams haven't completed an undefeated season since he won it all the first time in 2009.

9. Going Viral

You may be aware that there is a disease that has been causing some slight disruptions in society over the past few months. And its spread hasn't spared the Buckeyes, either. Aside from causing the straight up cancellation of three games on Ohio State's already depleted schedule, the virus has contributed to the Buckeyes fielding some less than complete squads over the past few weeks. A missing Chris Olave against Northwestern here, an absent Zach Harrison against Clemson there, the whole OL gone against Michigan State...it's been an issue. And now rumors swirl of additional players likely to be out against Alabama, including what may be the Silver Bullets' anchor and best player. The Tide, for better or worse, seem to have navigated the pandemic a bit more cleanly, and I haven't seen any reports of any key players in danger of missing Monday's showdown. And speaking of Bama not having problems with missing players...

10. Waddle We Do?

Why wasn't Heisman winner Devonta Smith a finalist in 2019? Because he had to compete with Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs for touches, the latter two of which have been busy this year tearing it up in the NFL. As for Waddle, he may have been outplaying Smith for the first 4 games of the season before he broke his ankle and Smith was suddenly "the guy" for the Alabama offense. And now, after missing the better part of the 2020 season, look who's back at practice and inspiring whispers of playing on Monday night. The Buckeye back seven are already going to have their hands full trying to cover one NFL first round WR; they don't need a second one to get lost in the secondary and bring back nightmares of Penix to Fryfogle and Philyor.