Friday, September 06, 2019

Week 2: Nasty Boys

Standings:
1.) Draper 2-0 (0-1 upset)
1.) Hoying 2-0 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 2-0 (0-1 upset)
1.) Seeberg 2-0 (0-1 upset)

FINALLY some games of import: Little Brother comes knocking for the first time in 5 years, and two SEC teams deign to play true road games against elite opponents. But first...

Syracuse Orange @ Maryland Terrapins
Draper: Does the hurt that Maryland put on Howard last week mean anything? What about what Syracuse did to Liberty with a coach literally coaching from a hospital bed in the press box? Short answer: no.  Long answer: noooooooooooo. I really don't put any stock in last week's results given the competition.  The fact that these defenses have given up a total of 0 points is kinda cool, I guess.  I have slightly more faith in Dino Babers than anything happening in College Park.  I really don't care about this game or know anything of value.  I'll slight lean to the Orange.  Why? I don't know.  SU: 28 -- Mary: 20
Hoying: You may laugh, but in each of the last two seasons, Maryland has risen up and bitten an early season "why are they ranked" team. 2 years ago their vanquished foe stumbled along to a .500 season, while last year they ended up winning a New Year's Six game. Did you remember that both times, this sub-Maryland team was the Texas Longhorns? More on them later. This year the Terps got to pound on some poor guy named Howard to the tune of 79-0 to warm up for this one. Meanwhile the Orange were ganging up on some poor team with no conference and their coach in a hospital bed (in the stadium for some reason). What did we learn from those contests? Nothing, they were playing Howard and Liberty. But somebody must know something, because this game opened at Syracuse -5 and has since swung all the way around to Maryland -2. The Terrapins still have that tiny nightmare Anthony McFarland that burned us for 300 yards or so last year, and Syracuse is still kinda fake good. Go B1G or go home (maybe just go home). SU: 24--Mary: 28
Schweinfurth: I'm doing the abbreviated version of picks this week. We'll go Maryland at home. Just have that feeling. SU: 28--Mary: 35
Seeberg:  Is this a surprisingly intriguing September game?  Absolutely.  Will it matter in the grand scheme of college football?  Not one damn bit.  Still, remarkable that the Terrapins could have dropped 100 on their opponent last week had they felt the need.  Both squads pitched shutouts last week but the Orange offense looked, well, lousy in comparison to McFarland and Co.  The fact that Maryland is actually favored against a ranked team under ANY circumstance is eye-opening.  It's another September to remember for the TMNT squad before collapsing in the B1G as per usual.  SU: 20--Mary: 26

Texas A&M Aggies @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: The spread in this game is insane.  I think it opened at 17...against a top 12 foe.  That's nuts.  Even with all the hype surrounding the Aggies this year and how they're going to be the one to knock off Bama (I'll believe it when they have Johnny Football again), I can't see Clemson dropping this one.  Clemson is just a machine at this point.  While TAMU is the biggest roadblock on their schedule (by a wide margin), I don't see this being particularly interesting.  I don't foresee a blowout, but I also don't think it will be in doubt.  Trevor Lawrence keeps the train rolling and Clemson continues the run of dominance. TAMU: 24--Clem: 42
Hoying: What's the opposite of rat poison? Whatever it is, that's what's being fed to the Tide this year as everyone has hopped off their bandwagon and set sail with Dabo and the Tigers. And if Clemson stomps everyone's favorite September SEC team on Saturday it'll really ramp up, and before you know it you'll get idiots with blogs writing about how Clemson is unstoppable and going to beat everyone they play by a million. And why not? Clemson QB and RB Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne haven't gone anywhere. The Clemson defense is still no slouch, holding the new-look Georgia Tech offense to a measly 14 points last week. The only reason this game was close last year was because the Tigers took their foot off the gas and the 12th Man spurred the Aggies to a furious late comeback that came up just short. I know it's a little early in the year for the standard Texas A&M collapse but any crazy fantasies of greatness will need to put on hold for another season. TAMU: 17--Clem: 31
Schweinfurth: I don't expect this to be the great game it was last year. A&M got tons of juice from their crowd. The 12th man can't help on the road. TAMU: 13--Clem 35
Seeberg:  Do my eyes deceive me?  Are TWO top 15 SEC teams playing TRUE road games against two OTHER top 15 teams?  Pardon me while I visit my optometrist.  TAMU heads to Death Valley in a remarkably entertaining week 2 matchup.  Extreme talent everywhere in this one, particularly on both sides of the line of scrimmage for both teams.  Clemson lost approximately 18,394 defensive linemen to the draft last year and still boast a top 10 D-line unit nationally.  The Aggies feel just a skill position player or two short of competing for a title this year, however, and if you aren't competing for the golden lipstick, you aren't good enough to hang with Clemson for four quarters.  Sorry Jimbo.  TAMU: 23--Clem: 38

Louisiana State Tigers @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: Where's Tessitore to proclaim Texas's "backness".  I heard the pundits already chiming that a win here would indicate that Texas is indeed back...but I've heard that before....many times.  Sam Ehlinger is a very good QB that runs Herman's system to a tee, but the defense of LSU is crazy good as per usual.  Joe Burrow leads the Tigahs into Darrell K Royal which....doesn't frighten anyway.  On top of that, Big Game Tom Herman seems to win big games and crap away a stupid one midseason (see: Urban Meyer?).  This would be a marquee Texas win, but I just don't see it.  It will be close, but y'all's Tigah Bait.  Coach O stays running high before Bama causes the traditional crash and burn.  LSU: 31--Tex: 27
Hoying: This is the part when I'm supposed to talk about how I'm pulling for LSU because that's where Joe Burrow ended up. That's not going to happen. You leave this program, you're dead to me. Had he stayed, perhaps we wouldn't have had to turn to a transfer of our own (though Mr. Fields seems to be working out just fine so far). Digressions aside, there's no denying that Joey Carpetbagger has provided an instant upgrade to the usual slop behind center we've been accustomed to seeing at LSU ever since Matt Flynn left. The defense is as good as ever (74 points in 7OT losses notwithstanding) and LSU would be primed to make a run at an SEC title if not for, well, you know. Buuuuuut, it's Texas Tom, in a big game, as a home dog. The Longhorns have their own experienced QB, Sam Ehlinger, and one of the better defenses in the Big 12 (lol). The SEC's early season meltdown ramps up to 3.6 roentgen (not great, not terrible). LSU: 27--UT: 30
Schweinfurth: I'm not sold on either of these two teams. The bonus for LSU is that Texas plays Big 12 defense. LSU: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg:  Ah yes the annual tradition:  The "is Texas back?" September game.  Mind you, they lost to the vaunted Maryland Terrapins (see above) two years in a row, so the answer has been, rather emphatically, NO.  They do get the TIgers at home, however, but LSU's typically dreadful offense is on the verge of respectability and, well, the Big 12-2 all but ignores defense in general.  A real road test for a good SEC squad is nearly unheard of, but with a barely capable offense, that should be enough in the conference filled with kids who played 7-on-7 as much as full-tilt high school football.  Play that Tiger Rag.  LSU: 27--UT: 23

Cincinnati Bearcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Is it finally time for Ohio's Only BCS Team from 2010* (*Warranty void in Tennessee) to unseat the big dog in the state? That's a no from me dawg.  OSU showed a few chinks in the armor last week, but the effort level after the opening barrage was not the same (to be expected).  Fickell returns to the Shoe with one of the top Group of 5 teams in the nation (perhaps the best?) but if you come at the King, you'd better not miss.  Against these athletes, OSU should be able to establish dominance on the ground with ease.  Fields needs to be quicker on the trigger and all will be fine (in fairness, the receivers were solid last week).  Defense will provide the real information as I really don't know what to expect.  Larry Johnson always has the D-line at a supreme level, but what will the secondary look like against a team with a pulse.  I'm excited for the chance to see it.  I think this will be a little closer than Buckeye Nation would like, but we didn't cover many spreads last year (except perhaps TTUN).  Buckeyes earn a hard fought solid win and Fields takes a step forward.  UC: 24-- OSU: 38
Hoying: Welcome back, wannabes. I always look forward to this matchup because each time this century the Buckeyes face the Bearcats we always give them the stiff-arm on the way to a title run (except you, 2004, shhhhh). And since the 2002 heart attack that kicked off a 2-year parade of heart-stopping wins, the Ohio State has been able to dispatch the Nasty Nati with relative ease. Oh, but this time there's a former Buckeye national champion defensive coordinator taking the 'Cats into battle? Didn't matter much in 2004 or 2006 when Mark Dantonio was doing the same, and we've seen his ability to give our beloved Bucks fits when commanding a competent team. Maybe Fick has it in him to frustrate the Buckeyes as well, but it won't be this Saturday with this squad. The Buckeye defense seems to have turned a corner and have too many weapons at their disposal for an admittedly decent Cincinnati D to keep at bay. Justin Fields isn't Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and the Buckeye O line isn't quite the sieve that UCLA trotted out last week. Enjoy Fickell while you can, Cincinnati. Either he'll crash and burn and you'll fire him, or he'll succeed like every other Bearcat coach in the last 15 years (except you, Senator Tuberville) and be on to bigger and better things. Still sUCks to be a stepping stone. UC: 17--OSU: 34
Schweinfurth: So I watched more of UC's game last week than the Buckeyes (sorry was out of town). I am not sold on their QB. From what I did see, the Silver Bullet secondary looks up to par. I see this staying close into the third quarter, but the Bucks are just better all over the field. UC: 14--OSU: 38
Seeberg:  If you'll kindly check last week's predictions, you'll note I had the final margin of victory dead-on, and barely missed the actual point totals themselves.  Though it's better to be lucky than good, the game ended essentially where I figured it would.  A decent-looking-if-somewhat-vanilla offense that flashed brilliance at times but still struggled to dominate via the run like ANY Ohio State team should be able to do against inferior competition.  A decent-looking-if-somewhat-vanilla defense that surrendered some points late with inexperienced backups in, but also flashed brilliance nonetheless (how Chase Young was only credited with 1.5 sacks simply boggles the mind).  The O-line clearly has the most room for improvement, but unfortunately for UC, so does there's with two freshmen starting right next to each other.  Fickell's D is too good to let the game get out of hand, but OSU is too talented to not salt it away late with the help of a turnover or two.  Enjoy Fickell while you have him, Bearcats fans, because when he takes the Minnesota gig in 2 years' time you'll be back to those 5-7 seasons you're so fond of and with which you're quite familiar.  UC: 13-- OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Nevada over Oregon
Hoying: Colorado over Nebraska
Schweinfurth: Army over M*ch*g@n
Seeberg: Ohio U. over Pitt

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Grading the Bucks: Week 1--Florida Atlantic

Talk about a tale of 2 games.  The first only lasted 8 min and 10 secs, but man was it explosive.  Plenty of things need shoring up, but there were positives as well.

Offense: B-
Grade seems low but I have my reasons.  First, the grade out of the gate was an A+++.  Everything was clicking beautifully.  The receivers looked crisp, Fields was decisive, and it was just plain easy.  Much of this was tempered in my mind with the fact that FAU was absolutely horrible.  Missed assignments, falling down...it was a comedy of errors.  Then reality set it.  For his first start Fields did pretty well but he needs to make quicker decisions.  When confident in the throw, he delivered a nice ball on time.  Even when Victor broke completely open, he made sure to hit the receiver when many QBs get excited and overthrow.  After the 4 TD barrage wore off, he had happy feet in the pocket (more to come) and simply held the ball too long.  It seemed that he expected the receivers to always be completely open like the beginning and he waited for it.  The major point of concern (other than the fumbles) was some lackluster offensive line play.  It was clear early on in the game that FAU was physically overmatched.  There was no reason for them to get ANY pressure based on the athletes, especially when not sending extra guys, and yet Fields was consistently diving out of the pocket.  The push in the running game was also missing.  The line play is very concerning moving forward.

Defense: A-
While all this is taken with a grain of salt (see above that FAU is horrible), the defense played quite well (as they should have).  The dink-and-dunk was the only success as the QB had to get rid of the ball very quickly due to the pressure.  Any time you can enter halftime holding the offense to negative yards, you have to be doing something right.  The second half was a bit more lackadaisical, but that's what happens in games like this.  The secondary was out of position a bit, but it was tough to truly gauge the improvement/lack thereof of the defense against this opponent.  Given the circumstances, I'm pleased.

Special Teams: B+
FAU did a nice job avoiding McCall which led to him getting into trouble on the sidelines (and replaced).  I thought it was just nice directional punting.  No missed kicks or problems in the return game.  There's also a little shake in the return game which I think will be important in the future.

Coaching: A-
Ryan Day and Co. dialed up a brilliant beginning to the era.  Can't fault much in the on field coaching, but I certainly hope the drop off in performance isn't the norm.  When the Owls started to fight back, I was a little concerned with the response of the Scarlet and Gray.  Instead of shutting the upstarts down, they played content.  A mental shift needs to occur to prevent this in all games.  The killer instinct must be at full capacity to compete with the best.  I think the coaching staff is going to keep them ready, but the laziness was noticed.

Overall: B+
Line play, line play, line play.  Perhaps the style is a more strategic attack rather than a physically dominant one, but can't it be both?  Fields needs to maintain confidence in his arm and receivers.  I've seen many a talented QB wait for the wide open receiver.  In today's game, risks are a necessity.  I trust in the offense and the offensive staff, but the growth needs to continue.  As for the defense, I'm still waiting for the next test.  I think Cincy will provide a nice measuring stick next week.