Mythbusters: Fiesta Bowl

Flash back to a year (and two days) ago. You just saw what may have been the best Buckeye team in your lifetime come up just short against their most annoying modern recurring foe after jumping out to a 16-0 lead and seeming to have the game well in hand. It hurt like hell, and it felt like Ohio State would have gotten the job done if only one of so many bad breaks (and bad calls) had gone their way. 

But does this stand up to scrutiny?

There's no way to be sure without going back and rewatching the game. And I can't think of many activities I would enjoy less. But, because I love you, loyal reader, so much, and because I would spare you from experiencing this awful pain yourself, I went back and watched the whole thing again. We'll go through a few lasting impressions that have seemed to resonate most strongly with Buckye Nation over the last year. 

Myth #1: All the breaks went against Ohio State. Any one of them plays out differently and the Buckeyes win.

Verdict: BUSTED

It is true that Ohio State had a lot of bad breaks in the Fiesta Bowl:

• Garrett Wilson's circus catch on the first drive, while overturned on replay to give Ohio State a first down instead of an incompletion, completely broke the momentum of that first drive.
• Dobbins got caught by the foot on his second big breakaway run and went down at the 8 instead of in the end zone.
• Dobbins then dropped a pass in the end zone.
• On the next drive, Dobbins dropped a well set-up screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16.
• Shaun Wade's targeting ejection turned a 3rd down sack into a first down and robbed Ohio State of their best slot corner.
• Dobbins hurt his ankle, missed a second quarter and a third quarter drive, and came back with a heavily taped ankle.
• Josh Proctor fell down chasing Trevor Lawrence on his 67 yard TD run.
• Cam Brown roughed the punter after missing the ball.
• Okudah's strip of Justyn Ross and Fuller's scoop and score were overturned on replay.
• Clemson muffed a punt before their last drive but immediately fell on the ball.
• And, of course, Olave broke off his route as Fields let the ball go straight at Nolan Turner.

That's a lot of big-time mistakes, almost all of which directly and proximately made a difference on the scoreboard. BUT, you may forget that the Buckeyes caught a decent number of breaks as well.

• Clemson's top receiver, Tee Higgins, hit his head on the ground on Clemson's first drive and misses the entire first half. Ask Troy Smith what losing your top receiver does to your offense. Heck, ask Justin Fields.
• Clemson missed a field goal on their first drive.
• Clemson dropped a sure pick six on Ohio State's third drive.
• Wide open Higgins dropped the ball on third down at midfield as Clemson was driving to try to take the lead coming out of the half.

Yes, most of the bad breaks went against the Buckeyes, but Higgins' absence cannot be overstated, and a pick six is always a game changer.

Myth #2: The Buckeyes win the Fiesta Bowl if Dobbins doesn't get hurt.

Verdict: BUSTED

Everyone remembers two things about Dobbins' performance in the Fiesta Bowl: (1) he ripped off multiple huge runs before he got hurt, and (2) he didn't do a whole lot after his ankle was taped up. This is mostly true, but it ignores a key part of the game: the period between Dobbins' second huge run and his ankle injury. 

The first quarter ended with JK Dobbins tearing off a 64 yard run to the Clemson 8 yard line, capping off a 6 rush, 141 yard quarter. Dobbins left the game with an ankle injury with 2:05 remaining in the first half. Between these two events, here was his production:

• 3 yard rush on second and goal
• Dropped TD pass on third and goal
• Dropped screen pass on 2nd and 15 from the Clemson 16
• Rush for no gain to start a drive
• Rush for a loss of 2 yards on 3rd and 1, injured ankle

That's five touches for a total of one yard. Dobbins had himself a first quarter but was strangely ineffective for the second. The Buckeyes were already starting to sprinkle in Master Teague before Dobbins got hurt, as Teague had four rushes to Dobbins' three during the pre-injury second quarter.

After returning, Dobbins did this:

• 2 yard rush
• 5 yard rush
• 11 yard reception
• 4 yard rush
• 7 yard reception
• 2 yard rush
• 11 yard rush
• 1 yard rush
• 2 yard rush
• 6 yard rush
• Rush for loss of 1 yard
• 13 yard reception
• 9 yard reception
• 9 yard reception

Not great, but not bad. And those last three receptions were on Ohio State's last drive, where they were moving the ball seemingly at will before you-know-what happened. And Dobbins himself was wide open for another 5 to 10 yard checkdown pass on that fateful play. Nobody wanted to see Dobbins hobbled, but he was able to be productive enough post-injury.

Myth #3: The refs hosed Ohio State out of a win.

Verdict: Wait a second. This one's a little complicated. When people think this, they usually have two plays in mind:

1. Shaun Wade's sack / targeting ejection.
2. Okudah's strip and Fuller's scoop and score, overturned on replay.

Regarding #1, the myth is BUSTED. It is true that the importance of this play cannot be overstated. At this point in the game, Ohio State had a 16 point lead, the Clemson offense had done absolutely nothing, and Wade had just scored a huge drive ending sack that threatened to knock Lawrence out of the game. In an instant, Ohio State lost their best slot corner, the Clemson drive was extended, and, after throwing at Wade's replacement (Amir Riep) on the next play and drawing a DPI, the Tigers got on the board almost immediately, scoring their first of three straight touchdowns. HOWEVER, the call was the correct one. Wade lowered his head and hit Lawrence's helmet with the crown of his helmet. Was it a dirty hit? No. Was it targeting by the letter of the rule? Yes. Would Wade have hit Lawrence helmet-to-helmet anyway if both he and Lawrence didn't lower their helmets? Probably? Is the targeting rule the worst rule in sports? Yes. But blame goes to the rule writers, not the refs on the field (or in the replay booth).

Regarding #2, the myth is PLAUSIBLE. Ross caught the ball and brought it down while he took three quick steps, all before the ball came out. Nothing approaching "indisputable video evidence" was available to reverse the scoop and score call on the field. This would have given Ohio State back the lead immediately after losing it, but it's hard to say whether the game would have gone in Ohio State's favor from there. After the botched call, Clemson had to punt anyway and then Fields threw an interception. Maybe with the momentum and the lead the Buckeyes could have done something differently, but they ended up taking the lead back on the next drive after that anyway.

Myth #4: The Buckeyes dominated the Tigers, but a tiny handful of big plays and costly errors cost them the game.

Verdict: CONFIRMED

Ohio State outgained Clemson by 99 yards and converted 7 of 18 third downs to Clemson's 5 of 14, adding 1-for-1 on fourth down as well. The Buckeyes scored on 5 drives to Clemson's 4. But there were a few plays when they couldn't get out of their own way, and a few when you just have to tip your cap to the Tigers:

• Dobbins drops two probable touchdown passes, taking 8 points off the board.
• Shaun Wade's targeting sack and Amir Riep's subsequent DPI gifted Clemson the ball at the Ohio State 16 after the drive had been dead stopped, and Clemson (unlike Ohio State all game) is able to convert in the red zone for the TD.
• Clemson has the ball on their own 33 with 1:22 left in the first half and one timeout, and rips off a 67 yard QB draw.
• Roughing the punter, followed almost immediately by a 53 yard dumpoff TD pass to Travis Etienne. Another Clemson scoring drive that had to be brought back from the dead.
• The overturned scoop and score.

And after all that, the Buckeyes were knocking on the door, down six, at the Clemson 23, with 43 seconds left, and moving the ball with surprising ease.

Myth #5: Everybody thought Ohio State was going to pull it off at the end.

Verdict: I mean, I did. Didn't you?

New Year's Six - Now with 0% More Indiana

Final Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 25-9 (2-6 upset)
1.) Draper 25-9 (1-7 upset)
1.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)

It's been the kind of year in college football where people are outraged that Cincinnati's not in the Playoff and Indiana and Coastal Carolina aren't in major bowl games. Then again, it's been the kind of year where the Power 5 conference champions are Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama. Let's hope the Playoff is on the weird side.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators

Draper: When the New Years 6 was (were?) created, it was thought that this would create incentives beyond the playoff to support the bowl system.  The problem is that it's not having the desired effect in most cases.  Motivation for the bowl matters...a lot...and the Gators don't seem to care.  They had their shot against Bama, emptied the chamber, and ended up falling short.  They have nothing left.  While I think (at full strength) the Gators are far FAR more talented than the Sooners, the Sooners are excited to have won the Big 12 after fighting their way into the mix.  Spencer Rattler and company will be able to keep up with Kyle Trask and the backups.  I lean on the motivation side and the Sooners. Soon-to-be Bengal, Kyle Pitts, will watch from afar knowing that his presence would have likely given the Gators the win.  BOOMER! UF: 30 -- OU: 36
Hoying: When you saw the Gators polish off Oklahoma back in 2008 for their second national title in three years (grrr...), you probably didn't think it would be the Sooners who would be competing for national titles over the next decade-plus while Florida foundered around trying to get out of the SEC East unscathed. But, here we are, with Oklahoma missing the Playoff for the first time since 2016, and only the third time ever. Of course, it's not like their appearances have been anything to write home about. Other than taking the ball out of Baker Mayfield's hands in the 2018 Rose Bowl to gack away a game against Georgia, the Sooners haven't come within single digits of any other Playoff competitor, mostly because their defense has been so awful. It turns out that one team in this game has a pretty awful defense, but it's not Oklahoma. The Gators have been able to overcome a so-so defense with their terrific offensive power (sounds like another team I know formerly coached by Urban Meyer). Problem is the horses are rapidly leaving the stable, as all-NCAA pass catcher Kyle Pitts and WRs Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are skipping the Cotton Bowl to focus on their future NFL careers. Don't worry, Kyle Trask will still be back there, but as we saw last week in Indianapolis, losing your top target(s) can drastically alter the comfort level of an offense. And unlike Ohio State, Florida does not have any semblance of a running game to fall back on. I felt pretty good picking the Gators before this latest rash of desertions, but this Boomer Sooner D is too good to be punked by second string wide receivers. UF: 23--OU: 27

Schweinfurth: I'm just going to throw this out there now, I don't think anyone really knows what we are going to see in any of these not-playoff games this year. This has been a long season for all these guys and most of them are just mentally worn down more than normal. With that said, I don't trust either of these teams. Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Florida can't run the ball. That makes Florida sound like a typical Big 12 team. That may be an advantage for Oklahoma, but there is just something about this Oklahoma team I just can't trust. This game should be a shootout. I'll take Trask with one final big drive of the year (unless a defender throws a shoe. Honestly, who throws a shoe?). UF: 42--OU: 35

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Peach Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game of 'who wants to be here?'  While Cincinnati wanted more, this is far and away their biggest game of the year; whereas UGA was playoff or bust.  Does this game matter to them? Will the lesser talent of the Bearcats (sorry, it's true) be bolstered by the motivation to prove they belong? I actually think there's a good chance Georgia sleepwalks throughout this even though they've been playing decent football lately.  This is a tough one as the Bulldogs motivation is to not get sniped by the G5 opponent.  This is a case of wanted to 'not lose' is more important than winning.  There will be a ton of opt-outs on the Georgia side, but I after watching the American Championship, I don't think UC has the horses to keep up with a second tier UGA squad.  This should be a really fun game to watch, but the big Dawg keeps the title and the SEC homers pound their chests.  UC: 27 -- UGA: 30  
Hoying: Mark Dantonio isn't roaming the sidelines in Cincinnati anymore but the disrespekt train is still chugging dourly along. After Notre Dame grabbed the #4 spot in the Playoff (obviously), the cries arose of "why not Cincinnati? They went undefeated and won by a bunch!" Why not Cincinnati? Because they played zero Power 5 teams this year. Because they beat Tulsa on a last second field goal. Because they looked pretty good last year too and they got whacked by Ohio State 42-0. Coastal Carolina had by far the better argument, but the Committee made it obvious early on that neither of these teams was sniffing the Playoff. Now, with all that being said, is Cincinnati good enough to beat Georgia? Maybe? Georgia is probably the single most overrated team in the nation this year, getting spanked soundly by both Alabama and Florida and beating a total of one team with a winning record (6-4 Auburn). Yeah, yeah, they're supposedly so much better now that they have JT Daniels at QB instead of Stetson Bennett IV, but it's easy to look good against South Carolina and Missouri. This is probably Kirby Smart's worst UGA team since his first year, and this is probably Luke Fickell's best UC team, but again, 42 to nothing. Nobody will mistake Georgia for 2019 Ohio State but I refuse to believe that Cincinnati has improved by leaps and bounds in this bizarre season. UC: 20--UGA: 27

Schweinfurth: Cincinnati is motivated. I mean really, really motivated. They have heard all year how it's great they are undefeated, and then the committee drops them 5 places behind 2 and 3 loss teams. My stance on the committee is a discussion for later, but this is a HUGE step up in competition. I want Cincinnati to win, just to throw it in committee's face. Unfortunately, the talent just doesn't match up. This will be a dog fight to the end. I expect nothing less from a Luke Fickell lead team. If Georgia shows up, they win. Again, where are they mentally? UC: 17--UGA: 21

SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: So excited for Indiana to get their shot on the big st....what? Iowa-freaking-State? Come on.  This was the Hoosiers moment and we get a flimsy conference (yet not division) champion vs....a 3-loss Big 12 team? sheesh.  Motivation again reigns supreme.  The Ducks looked good against the Trojans in the Pac12 title so maybe the preseason expectations are coming true.  While the Clones made the Big 12 title game close, they were getting blasted early by OU and mounted a furious comeback.  Did they empty the chamber? Is Matt Campbell coaching with an eye on Ann Arbor? I think I'll throw the dart here.  The Ducks show the Pac 12 still exists (although no one cares) and they emerge from the desert victorious.  QUACK! Ore: 31 -- ISU: 24
Hoying: Congratulations to the Oregon Ducks on being the 2012 Wisconsin of the Pac-12. One more loss than both the Washington Huskies and the USC Trojans wasn't going to stop the totally pedestrian Ducks from making their second consecutive New Year's Six appearance. Oregon didn't play any games out of conference this year, which severely curtailed their chances of picking up a quality loss like the Cyclones' defeat at the hands of Louisiana (no, not Louisiana State, Louisiana). But seriously, the Clones have looked a lot better since their baffling season-opening loss, including coming up just 34 yards short of a Big 12 Championship. I'm inclined to pick the team enjoying steady success over the team whose season has been going in fits and starts (sigh) and included a two-game skid against bad teams. I put no stock in the Ducks' win over USC; the Trojans are a mediocre team that was begging to get tagged. OU and OSU are the real deal and ISU hung tough with both. The Cyclones cap what may be the greatest season in school history and cement Matt Campbell's status at the top of every team's wish list. Ore: 20--ISU: 31

Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of Oregon (or the Pac-12 for that matter). I watched one game Pac-12 game this year and it was USC/Oregon. I was underwhelmed by both teams. Iowa State has been playing extremely well, outside of the Big 12 title game. Matt Campbell gets his guys ready. I'll take the Cyclones. Ore: 24--ISU: 35

Orange Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: I know I'm a broken record, but does A&M want to prove they were snubbed (they weren't) or do they fade quietly into that good night.  Good news for them is that UNC isn't very good.  Sam Howell is a nice QB albeit inconsistent, but let's not forget this Tarheels team lost to FSU (TALKIN!)--not a feather in one's cap.  A&M defeated the Gators in front of a capacity crowd and was thoroughly 'meh' through the rest of their schedule (albeit the drubbing to Bama).  Their resume (and even the stupid 'eye-test') were much weaker than the media would lead you to believe.  That said....3 point loss to Florida State in 2020.  Tarheels find a way to blow this one to another team with few starters. UNC: 24 -- TAMU: 34

Hoying: OK, speaking of teams (not Cincinnati) with at least colorable cases to be put in the Playoff, here we have the Texas A&M Aggies, who survived a league-only schedule in America's Favorite Conference (TM) with only one loss. Granted, the loss was by a million to the team which won their division, and unlike Notre Dame they didn't split a series with such juggernaut, but they tried real hard and beat a good team or two along the way. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. A&M has a great drag-it-out, ball control, game control boa constrictor game style, whereas UNC opts for the point-a-minute high flying offense. Now, Notre Dame showed that the Tar Heel attack can be stopped, but, as I just said above, Texas A&M isn't Notre Dame. That being said, the Aggies have shown that they can keep up with potent offenses when they need to. Just look at the Florida game. Mack is hot stuff in bowl games, but so is Jimbo, and the Aggies' overall talent should be the difference maker. UNC: 31--TAMU: 34

Schweinfurth: I have no idea with this game. On one hand, you have UNC, who can't stop anyone for 2.5 quarters and then suddenly becomes a world beater. On the other, you have TAMU who haven't looked like a top 10 team at times this year. I think that TAMU is the more consistant team of the two and that should lead to a good victory over a growing program. Let's prop up that SEC even more! UNC: 35--TAMU: 38

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1 again

[Rose] Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: In the words of a great man (Raffi from The League), "This....is gonna be gross".  Notre Dame rightly got the 4th spot in the playoff, but Bama is still Bama.  Imagine if the committee was more intelligent and put A&M in the 4th spot....what could they do to Bama if they only had their shot?  I'll admit that the Irish have outpunched their weight class this year, but I don't see the path here.  Ian Book has had quite a career in the gold.  It's just a shame this will likely be the sad ending.  Mac Jones, Devonta Smith, and Najee Harris are going to make mincemeat out of the Irish D and I expect the Tide defense to limit Notre Dame as much or more than Clemson did in the ACC championship.  The Gators put points up on Saban, but the Kyles (Pitts and Trask) aren't waking up the echoes here.  Bama by a million.  ND: 13--Bama: 52
Hoying: Much is being made of the two eggs Notre Dame has laid in their last two BCS/Playoff appearances, losing by 28 and 27. Granted, those losses were against the teams of the decade, Alabama and Clemson, but uh oh, look who's coming for the Irish this time. This Alabama team looks as good as any Saban has coached, with the possible exception of 2018, and their juggernaut offense stops for nobody. The great offense-defense switcheroo of 2020 has not spared Notre Dame, who have ridden their defense into their second Playoff appearance. Unfortunately, this defense failed them in both games they played against the other Playoff team they've played this season, giving up 33 (in regulation) and 34 to Clemson. That's bad news when you're facing the likely Heisman winner, another Heisman finalist, and the top non-finalist vote getter. There really isn't a reason to pick the Irish in this one. They've won one shootout this season, and it was in a game where their opponent was missing two of their linebackers and a D-lineman. You can score on Bama if you're up to it, but not before they put 50 on you first. ND: 27--Bama: 42

Schweinfurth: There really isn't much to break down here. The Irish are in this position based on one win against a depleted Clemson team. Bama is just stocked top to bottom and you need an NFL caliber defense to stop them. Notre Dame gets embarrassed on a national stage again. Bama by a trillion. ND: 17--Bama: 52

Sugar Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: We have the rematch against the team we cannot seem to beat.  Sadly, last year was the much better shot and we had it.  This is the year of motivation from the opposite side.  Will the desire to avenge a loss allow for reaching a higher level or cause silly mistakes with over-pursuit.  I don't feel great about this game with the severely depleted defense compared to last year, but Clemson is also worse for the wear.  Lawrence has the edge over Fields because it seems that Fields has had a level of indecision and lack of confidence in his throws since the IU game.  Is it the yips? Something behind the scenes? Too much pressing? Ryan Day was right in saying that we haven't seen this Buckeye team play their best game of the season; and we'll need it Friday to have a shot.  Olave and Wilson need to shine while Trey Sermon's performance last week should make the Tigers pay some attention.  Can the D limit Lawrence and Etienne? I think the key is getting pressure with the front 4 (which has been fantastic this year) and preventing the big play (not as fantastic).  Maybe Lawrence is focused on real estate in Jacksonville rather than prepping? I don't care.  This is a Buckeye blog and I love my team.  The magic happens and the Bucks win a shoot out. I'm no fake-Buckeye.  Clem: 40 -- OSU: 41

Hoying: It's finally here. The most anticipated rematch for Buckeye fans since 2014 Michigan State, and the stakes couldn't be higher. On paper, this is not a great matchup for the scarlet and gray. Trevor Lawrence may not be winning the Heisman this year, but he's still the consensus #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and he's throwing against an Ohio State secondary that played hide and don't seek (you're excused, Mr. Wade) against the only other effective passing attack they've faced. The good news is that Ohio State probably has slight edges in each other phase of the game. Dobbins ripped apart the Clemson front seven last year, and Sermon has the right skill set (one cut and go) to make the Tigers pay again. Travis Etienne did a whole lot of nothing when getting the ball behind the line of scrimmage last year, and the Clemson O-line has taken a step back overall, while the Buckeye linebackers are as good as they've been since 2015's monster trio of Lee, McMillan, and Perry. And Justin Fields is still really, really good, Northwestern game notwithstanding, and he'll have CO2 back to pace him for those 10 yard throws to the sideline. A Buckeye win here would probably look a lot like the 2015 Oregon game: control the flow, lean on the running game (including the QB), and come up with enough plays on defense to knock the elite opposing QB out of his rhythm. Don't forget that the Tigers are missing safety Nolan Turner, the greatest Clemson game ending villain since Charlie Bauman, for the first half, due to a targeting ejection against Notre Dame. It would be nice to jump out to another early lead, and then not lose it to momentum stealing body blows (or head blows) this time. A Buckeye loss here would probably look like, well, the 2014 Orange Bowl. Who else still has nightmares of Tajh Boyd to Sammy Watkins on every freaking play? The Buckeyes will be coming out frothing at the mouth (hopefully not literally) for this one, between the way last year ended and Dabo's continued trolling. Under Urban, the Buckeyes always looked their best when the whole world counted them out, but I think the lack of reps and the loss of talent in the secondary is going to be too much to overcome. If by some miracle the Silver Bullets can keep from getting beat deep, look for Lawrence to win the game with his legs the way he did last time. There's always next year, Buckeye Nation (for real this time, hopefully). After what happened in August, I'm glad we were able to get this far. Clem: 38--OSU: 28

Schweinfurth: Dabo is a hypocrite, a troll, and just unlikable at this point. The dude just needs to lean into the villain role and waffling. At least then I would respect the guy. With that said, this game is one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes pushed the B1G into playing this season. The Bucks got jobbed last year (weak targeting and botched catch/fumble). In reality, this is how it has gone against Clemson two of the last three times these teams have played. The Bucks have been up in those two games and then weird and stupid stuff happens. What worries my is the start/stop nature of this season. The Bucks haven't had the chance to really build up through this year. It would have been nice to get the full schedule, or only one cancellation, so this team could get live reps. The defense has shown signs of gelling and was making fewer mistakes in the last few games. Clemson will magnify these mistakes (see Lawrance's huge run last year). The Buckeyes have all the motivation they need to win this game. Will that be enough? At some point, that motivation can become crushing pressure. I think this will be close. I think Ohio State will have a lead in this game. And I think something stupid will happen to let motor mouth a-hole get the win. Clem: 24--OSU: 21