Saturday, December 28, 2019

Ghosts of Playoffs Past

31-0.

Chances are that's all you've heard about since, well, forget Selection Sunday, you've heard about this ever since it was obvious that Clemson was going to run the table and one of LSU and Ohio State was going to be stuck facing them out in the desert. And yet Ohio State's performances in these situations shouldn't be judged by their most recent showing, a sample size of just one game; we deserve to take a look at all of these matchups in recent memory. No, no, not Ohio State's rich history against Clemson; I've already covered that in another post. Rather, Ohio State being back in a playoff game for the seventh time this century (if we categorize the BCS national championship as a two-team playoff). I've spend the last couple weeks taking some trips down memory lane to relive each of Ohio State's previous six playoff/BCS appearances (sometimes for the first time since seeing them live) and seeing sticks out and what patterns arise. Yes, college football looks drastically different today than when the Miami Hurricanes were cock of the walk back in 01-02, but there are still lessons to be learned for this Saturday's upcoming matchup.*

*Past performance is not indicative of future results. But let's have some fun anyway!

2003 Fiesta Bowl: #2 Ohio State 31 - #1 Miami 24 (2OT)
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeye defense plays the game of its life and offense avoids game-turning disasters.

Rewatching this game, two things really jump out at me: (1) the Hurricanes were not ready for the multiple looks the Buckeye defense were throwing at them, and (2) Craig Krenzel was an absolute wizard escaping pressure. Krenzel was rolled out on practically every dropback to avoid Miami's pass rush up the middle and was sacked only once all night, though he was knocked down over 20 times. Krenzel finished as the game's leading rusher both by total yards and yards per carry. For everyone who said Ohio State could never win a national title with JT Barrett at QB, they essentially did in 2002 against an offense featuring two Heisman finalists.

And it was because of the defense. Miami's first snap of the game was a sack (the Buckeyes finished with 4 on the night) and the Buckeyes forced 5 turnovers. They had an answer for everything but Miami TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. And for everyone who thought it was fashionable to pick on Dustin Fox, he did a better job covering Roscoe Parrish than Gamble did against Andre Johnson, and Fox forced two turnovers to boot, the second of which should have iced the game late in the fourth quarter.

It's eerie how many of this game's iconic moments were foreshadowed:

  • On Roscoe Parrish's first punt return attempt (a fair catch), the announcers warned about how dangerous he was. Parrish was bottled up the entire game on returns until his last chance, late in the 4th, which set up Miami's last second tying FG. Interestingly, Parrish had just fumbled a few plays early after a long reception.
  • Chris Gamble (on defense) got called for a super weak holding call in the second quarter, tugging on the back of Andre Johnson's jersey, much less egregious than either (1) the holding call that was missed on Gamble's near-reception late in the 4th quarter, or (2) the famous pass interference call on a pass to Gamble in OT.
  • Just before half, Willis McGahee took a quick completion and Will Allen rammed right into his knee. In the second half, just as Miami started to get its run game going, Allen tore off every CL in McGahee's knee on a similar hit.
  • Just after half, Cie Grant blitzed Dorsey on 3rd down, forcing a quick throw to McGahee, who stopped just short of the sticks anticipating a hit from Dustin Fox and failed to pick up the first down, forcing a Miami punt. This foreshadows both (1) the hit to McGahee described above, and (2) Grant's iconic game-ending blitz on 4th down in 2OT.
  • In the third quarter, facing a 3rd and 6, Krenzel hits Michael Jenkins but Jenkins jumps to catch the ball and his feet come down just out of bounds. This foreshadows both (1) the 3rd down throw to Gamble late in the fourth quarter that was incorrectly ruled out of bounds, and (2) the huge completion to Jenkins near the sideline on 4th and 14 in OT.

Never forget that Lydell Ross had significant carries in a national championship game that Ohio State won, including being part of 3 of OSU's 4 touchdown drives.

2007 BCS National Championship: #2 Florida 41 - #1 Ohio State 14
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeyes make the least of limited opportunities on both sides of the ball.

It was uncanny watching the Florida offense operate in this game; it was like watching 2010's era Ohio State work over 2000's era Ohio State.

If field position doesn't win ball games, it does a lot of the heavy lifting. Florida got the ball in Ohio State territory on 4 of their 7 first half possessions through a combination of dumb personal foul penalties, turnovers, and turnovers on downs, and turned those opportunities into 24 points, i.e., more points than Ohio State scored all game.

Hand in hand with field position is 3rd down conversions. In the first half, Florida was 7 for 10. Ohio State? 1 for 5. The Buckeye D tightened in the second half and held UF to 3 of 9 but the irreparable damage was done by that point.

Running the ball with Antonio Pittman was working all game except when it was most desperately needed, on a 4th and 1 from the Buckeye 29 after the Buckeyes clawed back to down 7.

You wouldn't notice it unless you watched this game right after the Miami championship, but somehow Craig Krenzel is a more slippery runner than Troy Smith. I can't count the number of times Troy ran directly into the Florida pass rush.

2008 BCS National Championship: #2 LSU 38 - #1 Ohio State 24
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeye miscues tip competitive game in favor of opponent.

Watching this game hurt the most because it was the only one of the losses the Buckeyes could've realistically won. The Buckeyes jumped all over LSU early and had a 10 point lead, and it wasn't because of fluky plays.

2007 had maybe the second best collection of LBs in Buckeye history (after Hawk, Carpenter, and Schlegel in 2005), but James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman had a quiet game compared to the third amigo, Larry Grant. Laurinaitis had 18 tackles and Freeman had 14 but neither had many impact plays.

On the other side of the ball, Brian Hartline was the only receiver doing any work. Boeckman just should have looked his way on every pass play.

Up 10-3, Ohio State punts and LSU fumbles inside the 20, then falls on the ball. The next two drives were an LSU TD and an OSU blocked field goal. What could've been...

Speaking of what could've been, if I had to pick the most important play of all 6 of these games, it would be the roughing the punter on LSU's opening drive of the second half. Down 24-10, Ohio State forced LSU into a 4th and 23 and had a chance to retake all of the momentum, and Austin Spitler dove for the punter's foot instead of diving in front of his foot to block the punt. Instead of getting the ball in LSU territory, LSU kept the ball at Ohio State's 45.

Capping that same drive, Matt Flynn found Early Doucet at the 5 yard line and broke 3 tackles on his way into the endzone for LSU's fourth straight TD drive in a row (other than an end of half kneelout). Shockingly, the defense actually finally showed up after that embarrassment, but again, the damage was done.

And a lot of the damage was done on, you guessed it, third down. First half third down conversions: LSU 8 for 10, OSU 2 for 7. The defense settled down at halftime (LSU went 3 for 7 in the second half) but the offense didn't (1 for 6 in the second half).

2015 Sugar Bowl: #4 Ohio State 42 - #1 Alabama 35
Game summary: Buckeyes make lion's share of mistakes but not enough to waste clear advantage on both sides of the ball.

If Craig Krenzel was slippery, Cardale Jones was a dump truck running against this Bama D. Linemen, linebackers, safeties, it doesn't matter, Cardale will run you over, and he will seek the contact despite there being nobody left behind him on the depth chart.

Having a run threat weapon like that is how you flip the script on third down. After the Florida and LSU debacles, OSU opens the first half going 7 for 10 on third down (and most of them were 3rd and loooong). Bama went 2 for 13 on third down all game. The Buckeyes cooled off a bit in the second half (3 of 8) but big plays made the difference.

If Ohio State doesn't spew the ball all over the field in the first quarter this game is never close. Zeke started gashing Bama for a 54 yard run on Ohio State's first drive and he never looked back. Go back and watch that 54 yard run; it's even better than the more famous 85 Yards Through the Heart of the South.

The only other negative for the Buckeyes was the play calling in their goal-to-go situations:

  • Cardale run for no gain
  • Cardale pass incomplete
  • Cardale pass incomplete (field goal)
  • Cardale sack for loss of 8 yards
  • Cardale completion for 5 yards
  • Cardale pass incomplete (field goal)
  • Cardale run for loss of 1 yard
  • Cardale pass incomplete, with DPI
  • Cardale pass to Marshall for loss of 1 yard (at this point in the game, Zeke has 111 yards on 10 carries but whatever)
  • Zeke run for 3 yards
  • Zeke run for 3 yards, FIRST TD OF THE DAY
I lied, one last problem. Late in the game, with a 2 TD lead, Ohio State seemed determined to let Bama back in the game. First, Tyvis Powell and Doran Grant both decide to bite on a double move and allow a 50 yard bomb over their heads. Then, the Bucks try for a home run ball instead of eating clock and feeding Zeke. Thankfully, Bama's clock management skills on their last drive are terrible and their Hail Mary is devoured by Tyvis Powell.

One of the most fun things about rewatching these games is the "hey, it's that guy!" moments where forgotten players get a chance to shine. The most "hey, it's that guy!" guy from this game is WR Corey Smith, who blew up multiple Alabama kickoff returns inside the 20 (Urban's coffin corner kickoff strategy was masterfully realized in this game) and had some nice blocks to go along with a catch.

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: #4 Ohio State 42 - #2 Oregon 20
Game summary: Buckeyes' multiple mistakes barely slow down a complete domination.
I still can't believe Oregon was a 7 point favorite in this game. Did the oddsmakers even watch the Sugar Bowl? At any rate, it looked like they would be vindicated early. Oregon score, Buckeye punt, and Oregon is only stopped by a drop on 3rd down on their next drive.

Zeke was great against Wisconsin and Alabama, but he was virtually unstoppable in this game, as was Cardale on the scramble. After their first drive, the Buckeyes did not punt again until halfway through the fourth quarter (except for a punt right before half as OSU tried to run out the clock and failed). There are four turnovers sprinkled in that mix, but all were on drives on which the offense was moving the ball. The all-important third down? Ohio State converted 5 for 8 in the first half (plus a fourth down conversion), compared to Oregon's 2 for 8.

I love JK Dobbins, and I think he's going to have a big game against Clemson, but give me Zeke any day of the week for his speed advantage and outstanding blocking prowess.

Oregon made a few mistakes as well (mostly drops on wide open deep balls) overall the Buckeye D was pretty solid all day. WR Byron Marshall and RB Travis Tyner (not Royce Freeman for some reason) were the only Ducks to find any room to work.

2016 Fiesta Bowl: #2 Clemson 31 - #3 Ohio State 0
Game summary in one sentence: Unimaginative offensive game plan squanders good defensive effort.

This was the only loss in the bunch that was not a total team failure by the Buckeyes. The defense actually played pretty well, notwithstanding the 31 points. Both second half touchdowns were on short fields, and the defense scored two interceptions early in the game, one to set up the offense with a scoring opportunity (missed field goal #1) and one to end a Clemson scoring threat.

Oh, and Cameron Johnston was unimpeachable: 7 punts averaging 49.7 yards, with a long of 61 and 3 down inside the 20.

The offense didn't just suffer from a lack of preparation; the in-game decision making was maddening as well. On Ohio State's first drive into Clemson territory, Michael Jordan went down to an injury and was replaced by Demetrious Knox at LG. On third and 1, the Buckeyes run JT TO THE LEFT and Knox misses the snap count, standing there like a statue while the DL devours JT. Tyler Durbin, who at this point is a total head case after missing two easy FGs against Michigan, then blows a scoring chance.

The receiving corps was a hellscape this year. After the departure of Devin Smith and Michael Thomas, the only upperclassman of note was Corey Smith, and the only other options were the young guns Noah Brown, Binjamin Victor, K.J. Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Parris Campbell (who was involved kickoffs only), who at this point, we know, were not getting any meaningful guidance from their position coach. All day it seemed like the only guy JT even looked at was Curtis Samuel, who was had 9 catches on 11 targets. OSU's other receivers? 7 catches on 22 targets.

Not that the coaches trusted the receivers or JT anyway. I don't think I saw a deep route until the game was practically out of hand and the Buckeyes just said "screw it" and started chucking it on every play (which, incidentally, gave them their best drive of the game).

Also, for a team that supposedly couldn't throw down field, Ohio State showed zero commitment to the run game. Mike Weber didn't get a single carry until halfway through the second quarter and didn't get a second until the second half. Of course, he did fumble on his second and third carries, so maybe the coaching staff knew something we didn't...

Once more, the third downs tell the story. Clemson went 8 for 17 (not a bad performance by the defense) and Ohio State went 3 for 14, including an abysmal 2 for 9 in the first half.

Friday, December 27, 2019

New Year's Six - Tiger Slam

Final Regular Season Standings:
1. Hoying 44-11 (4-10 upset)
1. Schweinfurth 44-11 (2-12 upset)
1. Seeberg 44-11 (1-13 upset)
4. Draper 39-16 (2-12 upset)

The #1 seed may have eluded our beloved Buckeyes but we're back in the Playoff again to face a familiar foe, the Tigers. Just like Oklahoma. And Penn State (except for the playoff part, great but not elite). Thankfully, none of these games is on a weekday New Year's Eve (although the Orange Bowl is strangely on a Monday night). For the Bucks, it's just another college football Saturday before a championship Monday night. Beat Clemson.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28

Cotton Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Oh joy....will the Lions be able to get interested in the Little Sister's of the Poor Bowl? Memphis is a fine team, but the athletes don't match up.  Add on top of that the fact that Mike Norvell is in Tallahassee equals trouble for the Tigers.  Regardless, Memphis is a decent team to beat UC twice, but Penn State is a different monster.  If Penn State doesn't take umbrage at the matchup vs. the Group of 5 representative, Sean Clifford and Co. should take care of business.  Look for the Tigers to come out swinging but falter in the 2nd half.  Mem: 17 -- PSU: 31
Hoying: Welcome to this year's token little brother bowl. The group of Group of 5 teams vying for this slot was a bit thicker than usual, but that was mostly because none of the contenders really set itself apart. Memphis got the nod thanks to the AAC being a bit deeper than the other Group of 5 conferences (maybe even the ACC) but have they really been so great? Beating bad Ole Miss by 5 is nice, but Penn State has been getting real live wins over real live teams not named Ohio State or...Minnesota. Expect this on to be close, as Penn State hasn't put away a quality opponent all year, but the Lions' stifling D is too much for Memphis to handle, especially with their coach already out the door. Mem: 24--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: As much as I railed on and made fun of Penn State this year, they are the better team here. Not only that, they were passed over for the Rose Bowl. Penn State should win, unless they are caught sulking. Mem: 13–PSU: 31
Seeberg: Rough situation for Penn State here, really a no-win scenario (not near as ugly TTUN/Bama, however.  I really wish neither team could win).  Win even in decent fashion and it still looks iffy for the program to not be able to dominate a group of 5 champion.  And in all honesty, that's probably what will happen.  In theory, the Nittanys should be able to lean on a reasonably talented but far less deep team than themselves and the talent gap should be evident over four quarters.  Here's hoping that theory comes to fruition.  Mem: 24--PSU: 35

MONDAY, DECEMBER 30

Orange Bowl: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators
Draper: This is the one.  On paper, this shouldn't be close.  The Gators defense has been phenomenal all year and the Hoos are coming off a beatdown to Clemson in the ACC championship, but every year, there's one weird result.  I'm throwing my chips in the upset bucket here.  Florida is a mediocre offensive unit and a power pass rushing team,  Bryce Perkins is going to be able to both run and pass in a surprise showing.  The Gators have nothing to play for, but the Cavaliers see this as the Superbowl.  The Wahoos shock the Gators in Miami (let's not forget this Florida team almost lost in Miami in Week 0...and the Hurricanes are the 2nd best team in the...city. UVA: 24 -- UF: 20
Hoying: Nobody wants to be the bowl stuck with the interloping Group of 5 team, but this year's Orange Bowl may have gotten the shorter end of the stick. You know it's bad when a New Year's Six game has the largest spread (Florida -14.5) in all of bowl season. Although the Peach Bowl's not much better. What's there to say about Virginia? They finally got the Hokie off their back after 15 years, but there's not really another good win on the schedule (because they aren't available in the ACC) and the less said about the Clemson game, the better. UF played a murderer's row including TWO FCS teams and lackluster out of conference matchups against flagging FSU and Miami teams (still better than most of the scheduling in the SEC), picking up a nice win against Auburn and little else. The Gator D has hung tough all year, only faltering against Juggernaut Joe and LSU, and they'll be more than up to the challenge of handling Virginia's pass-only offense. UVA: 13--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: Virginia was the ACC sacrifice to Clemson and felt like they were a bit lucky to be there. Florida has played a much tougher schedule and seemed to be coming on late in the year. Gators win. UVA: 10–UF: 17
Seeberg:  OK, I get all the bowl tie-ins to conferences I really do, but letting any ACC team not named Clemson anywhere near a bowl game of consequence is an outright farce.  It will be ugly to watch but the SEC gets the...bragging rights (?) of beating a 4-loss ACC squad that mustered just 9 points in a loss against Miami (you know, the team that just got shut out by Louisiana Tech).  Bleh.  Onto the next one.  UVA: 10--UF: 31

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: This might be the best matchup outside of the playoff.  Oregon has been playing very well outside of gagging in Tempe while the Badgers are a Lovie Smith miracle from beating undefeated (outside of OSU).  While the Badgers didn't last in Indy, they played much better than I think even they expected.  Jack Coan looked pretty good while Taylor finally had a non-stinker against the Bucks.  Oregon has a defense this year (huh?) but they are led by Justin Herbert who is seen as a top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft (pleeeeease not Cincy).  The Wisconsin defense should drive Herbert's stock down.  I like the Badgers to nip the Ducks in a fairly low scoring contest.  UW: 20 -- Ore: 17
Hoying: The last time these two met in the Rose Bowl it was the Ducks who emerged victorious in a wild shootout that featured Wisconsin spiking the ball on Oregon's 25 down seven with no time left. This year's version of the Ducks gets it done with defense, led by their top 10 ranked rush D. Problem is, Wisconsin's rush defense is even better, and that's after playing JK Dobbins twice. No problem, you may say, Oregon can rely on the big arm of future Bengals #1 overall pick Justin Herbert. Yes problem, because the Wisconsin pass D is stellar as well, and I'm sure you all vividly remember the pressure the Badger pass rush generated against Justin Fields in October and December. Oregon hasn't seen the likes of Jonathan Taylor anywhere in the Pac-12, and now that he's got his mojo working after finally finding some room against the Buckeyes, I expect the Badger momentum to continue into New Year's Day and get the Big Ten its 4th Rose Bowl win this century. UW: 27--Ore: 20
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin is a sneaky good team. The defense is legit...if Chris Orr is healthy.Justin Herbert is good, but the Badgers are very good rushing the passer. The fewer possessions in this game, the better chance the Badgers have to win. Jonathan Taylor goes for 200 and the Badgers win. UW: 28–Ore: 13
Seeberg: Oregon finally looked as good as we THOUGHT they were in not letting Utah off the hook, thrashing them in the PAC-12 title game to the misery of its leaders, further relegating the conference to obscurity.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked all-world for a half against the Buckeyes before things ultimately righted themselves.  Make no mistake, however, both teams are good, but Oregon has exactly 0 answer for Jonathan Taylor, and that's a problem, because when Wisconsin has an elite back, it can make their how-did-this-guy-manage-to-get-a-Division-I-scholarship litany of quarterbacks look so good that some metrics actually have them ahead of Buckeye QBs (no seriously, Hornibrook was rated higher than Haskins last year by a couple measures- it's absurd).  Taylor runs wild, the D clamps down, the B1G gets coveted back-to-back Rose Bowl wins.  UW: 31--Ore: 16

Sugar Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Does Georgia care? I have no idea, but I'd lean, no.  Regardless, can Baylor keep the points flowing against an extremely stingy Dawg D (except against LSU).  Georgia has little to no offense as it is, but the defense has been enough in every game but 2 this year.  Baylor has been fine nearly winning the Big 12 but continuing to come up short against the Big Bad Sooners.  Unfortunately for those that hate the conference that must not be named, if Georgia cares, they should win easily, and if they don't care....I have no idea.  I think the smock falls short in the Bayou.  Baylor: 13--UGA: 17
Hoying: Let's gaze into our magic crystal snowball and see whether Georgia thinks it can win this game or would prefer to phone it in and then blow off the loss as a lack of motivation. 2019 Baylor isn't quite 2018 Texas: the Longhorns blew a huge lead against OU but came up for a last gasp FG to finish the upset, where as Baylor went to pieces against the Sooners when it mattered and narrowly missed out on being LSU's sacrificial lamb in the Peach Bowl. The Bears blew through their first and second string QB on their way to just missing the playoff (Cardale's legacy is secure) and their status for game day is not clear. On the other sideline, Georgia's already anemic offense is still depleted at wide receiver, and you saw what they did against a good-not-great LSU defense with the pieces they currently have in place. I'm tempted to pick Baylor based on what they did in the first half against OU the first time and their hilarious comeback win over TCU, but Georgia is still much more talented top to bottom, and their defense is angry after being shredded in their home state by Burrow & Co. Baylor: 20--UGA: 23
Schweinfurth: Can Georgia score more than 21 points? That will determine how this goes. The Bulldog offense has been bad and Baylor’s D has been good (for a BIG-12 team). To be honest, Ikm not sold on Georgia. Baylor wins late. Baylor: 24–UGA: 21
Seeberg:  Don't expect a lot of points in this one kiddos.  Injuries to both squads coupled with less-than-explosive offenses to begin with resulted in both losing title games and shots at the CFP, albeit one team (cough Bulldogs cough) in far more spectacularly awful fashion than the other.  The proverbial $64,000 question is as follows:  Does Georgia care?  Or will they lay an ostrich-sized egg that is somehow swept under the rug by the mainstream ESPN-led media?  Honestly I don't know.  Georgia is clearly more talented, Baylor likely more motivated (and possibly better coached as well).  I truly think it's first to 20 will win...and Baylor may just get there late.  In the immortal words of Stephen Colbert, what's the biggest threat to America? (Georgia, at least).  BEARS.  Baylor: 20--UGA: 13

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28 again

Peach Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: This playoff features 2 games in which everyone is picking the same teams.  No one....NO ONE is giving the Sooners a shot in this game.  I think the Heisman tour and the constant barrage of the one seed being perceived as a bye will lull the Tigahs into a false sense of security.  Oklahoma, while not on the level of the top 3 teams, is still very good.  I expect this to be much tighter than the experts, but LSU is good enough to come back when in a hole.  Coach O and company escape with a nailbiter to return to New Orleans for the title.  OU: 38--LSU: 41
Hoying: This year's playoff field may be the deepest in the six years of the tournament. Oklahoma, however, is no part of that calculus. Oh sure, they're more appealing than 2017 Alabama (entering the playoff at least) and maybe even their 2015 and 2018 counterparts, but this year's postseason is all about the undefeated blue bloods in the Fiesta Bowl and the Tide-vanquishing unstoppable LSU Tigers. Nobody is giving the Sooners much of a shot in this game, and it doesn't help when you lose your best pass rusher and your change of pace running back to suspension, and then your star safety gets all busted up in practice (not a game). I still don't fully trust LSU and Coach O, and I think the winner of this game loses in New Orleans regardless of how each semifinal plays out, but this seems like an obvious LSU win. So I'm picking LSU, obviously. OU: 27--LSU: 44
Schweinfurth: LSU is clearly the better team. An already overmatched Oklahoma team now has to deal with a few suspensions. The Sooners best chance is to make this a shootout and hope to have the ball last. Unfortunately, LSU should be able to get a few stops. OU: 35–LSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah we jump from what will likely be brutal to watch to what should be a helluva lot of fun.  This really shouldn't be a blowout despite the -13.5 betting line in LSU's favor.  The Tiger D has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, but that may be due to playing lackluster offenses, which is certainly not what they'll see here.  Still, it's tough to imagine any Big 12 D holding the LSU juggernaut down, so unless the Heisman curse (see:  Troy Smith, 2006) bites again, LSU rolls into Nola to try to grab a natty.  OU: 34--LSU: 45

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Another game in which NO ONE is picking the Buckeyes (this isn't bulletin board material...I haven't found anyone outside of Columbus picking OSU).  Clemson is a stellar team, but so is this OSU team.  Most of the talking heads have touted the great (#2 in the nation!) average margin of victory for the Tigers (+35.2) which is the excuse for why Clemson's schedule doesn't matter... One problem with this argument...The Bucks are #1 at +36.2 against a MUCH better schedule.  Honestly, this game is a pure toss-up.  Both teams are extremely talented and fairly similar (stud QB, great skill players, stout defense, etc.).  Can Clemson continue their dominance against a real team? Can the Bucks defeat a team that has been a thorn in their side...forever? Let's hope Fields' knee holds up and Chase continues wrecking up the place.  The playoff revenge tour starts here.  OSU: 35--Clem: 31
Hoying: Clemson sure has looked good this year, haven't they? There was the puzzling sputtering offensive performance against North Carolina (that would have knocked Clemson to, what, the #4 seed had they lost?) but the Tigers have otherwise been basically flawless. They have playoff experience (talking point alert). But big whoop, the Buckeyes have been to a NY6 or BCS bowl every year for the last 7 seasons, and after weathering the Rose Bowl last year I don't think they're going to get caught in the big lights of the big game. The Buckeyes have showed even fewer vulnerabilities than the Tigers, and, to steal the other talking point going into this game, they are battle tested, carving a path of destruction against some of the top defenses and most complete teams in the country. Yes, we know that Clemson has been doing what they can against the terrible competition they've been dealt. Yes, we know the advanced stats put them nearly on par with Ohio State. But the advanced stats loved Utah. Then they folded like a house of cards against the attack of the Ducks. The advanced stats really loved Alabama. Then the Tide played the only two decent teams on their schedule and fell flat against both. Don't let the "eye test" fool you: whom have you played and whom have you beaten? On Sunday morning, after a steady dose of JK Dobbins, who has yet to be stopped in any meaningful way this season, and a few Clemson miscues in the passing game, the Buckeyes will be able to wake up and answer that question for the first time in program history with "the Clemson Tigers". Go Bucks. Beat Clemson. Clem: 28--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This is the first time this year I am not absolutely confident that Ohio State will win. Clemson has talent all over the field and Travis Entienne is a beast. Add in all world QB Trevor Lawrence and Clemson has the best offense Ohio State has played all year. Fortunately, Clemson hasn’t played a team anywhere near the talent of Ohio State. Clemson played one ranked team (UVA) and they were barely ranked. The Bucks have a great shot if Dobbins and the Buckeye offensive line control the Clemson front. I think they can. Lawrence has a tendency to throw the ball in dangerous places so Okudah and company needs to get their hands on passes when the time arises. This feels like the 2015 Sugar Bowl. The outcome should be the same. Clem: 35–OSU:42
Seeberg:  Apologies in advance, Buckeye Nation, I have a bad feeling about this one.  Six weeks ago I was ready to anoint this 2019 Ohio State iteration the champions of all creation...but that was six weeks ago.  Now in late December, chinks have shown in the armor.  An injury here, a loss of stud rusher Jonathan Cooper there.  A slow start (twice), a defense that was pasted for over 140 rushing yards in a half a week after giving up 250 (!) passing yards in a half.  Were those issues ultimately fixed?  Mostly.  Did the Bucks win those games going away?  You bet.  Were either of those teams in the same stratosphere as Ohio State or, more importantly, the current opponent?  Not even close.  Despite all the recent relative struggles, I was still picking the Bucks to win this one until video surfaced a couple days ago of a supposedly "80 to 85 percent" Justin Fields noticeably limping in practice.  That was the last straw.  I suspect he will still be mobile enough to escape the pocket at times (though he tends to hold the ball too long too often anyhow), but his run threat is compromised, which makes keying to stop Dobbins actually feasible for the first time all season.  My other concern is legitimately all-world coach Ryan Day.  He admitted he got tight with his play-calling in the PSU game after the miscues made the game close.  This game will be close throughout, will he tighten?  Maybe, maybe not, but we know Dabo and Venables will be composed and adjust reasonably well.  Make no mistake, Ryan Day will have many more opportunities on this stage as the Bucks' head coach, but to be the king you gotta beat the king, and an 80% starting quarterback just isn't gonna do it.  *sigh  Tigers late.  Clem: 31--OSU; 27