Thursday, November 28, 2019

Week 14: Thanksgiving at Ground Zero

Standings:
1.) Hoying 36-8 (4-9 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 35-9 (2-11 upset)
2.) Seeberg 35-9 (1-12 upset)
4.) Draper 33-11 (2-11 upset)

In 1975, the Buckeyes took their undefeated, untied, #1 ranked squad up to Ann Arbor to face a Wolverine group that had beaten all but 2 of their opponents. Ohio State fell behind 14-7 late in the fourth but rebounded to earn a 21-14 win and a Rose Bowl berth. To an outside observer, Ohio State could have bigger fish to fry after this week, but any one of the Buckeye faithful will tell you this is a one week season. Go Bucks. Beat Blue.

FRIDAY 

Cincinnati Bearcats @ _e_phis Tigers
Draper: Here we go, Bearcats.  Here is the chance to help Big Brother out.  No one is giving credit to the Buckeye win over UC, which is regretful.  Perhaps it is because they haven't beaten...well...anyone.  Here's the chance.  Playing the Tigers on the road will be a challenge, but I have faith in the Buckeye pride of Coach Fickell to bring back to the Queen City..  Why? There are those that will say it's because I haven't seen the Tigers play this year.   To those, I say...you are correct.  Go Red! Go Black! Go Bearcats! Help the Bucks! UC: 31--Tigers:30
Hoying: Oh, UC. Not good enough to be Little Brother, instead being like the cat, who you occasionally stop to pet for a few seconds before retracting your hand lest you suffer a painful (but inconsequential) injury. The Bearcats just keep winning, and winning ugly, needing a lot of kicking and post-touchdown conversions to go awry to escape the the last two weeks. The Tigers aren't exactly crushing the opposition either but they're at their place and the offense hasn't been stopped since the Owls delivered their only loss back in October. The Tiger win guarantees a repeat of this one next week (groan) and keeps the Tigers on pace for a New Year's Six appearance. UC: 27--Tigers: 34
Schweinfurth: The Fighting Fickels have been propping up Ohio State's non-conference by squeaking by teams the past few weeks. Regardless of their struggles, they did wrap up a spot in the AAC title game. Good thing they took care of that last week because the Tigers are flat rolling. If this game had been earlier in the season, I would pick the Bearcats. This game in at Memphis and I just see a Bearcat letdown coming. UC: 17--Tigers: 28
Seeberg: Not entirely certain what has happened to the Bearcats.  After rolling opponents in an OSU-esque style they appear to have regressed the past few weeks.  This contest is classic strength on strength with the Bearcats D squaring off against the Tigers powerful offense.  The TIgers haven't been held under 42 in conference play save for a four-turnover debacle against Te_ple.  I doubt they get to that target on Friday, but Fickell's crew just doesn't have enough on the offensive side of the ball to hang for four quarters.  Tigers pull away late.  UC: 16--Tigers: 27

SATURDAY

Alaba_a Cri_son Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Has the Tide turned with the loss of Tu'a? Will the wily veteran (frosh) QB BoNix bonix his way to a Tiger upset?  This is looking like another season Saban could weasel his way into the playoff...but the wins/losses are just not very good.  Yes, SECSPN will talk about this showdown as if a win rolls the Tide to greater things, but I would hope the CFP group will recognize it for a win over a 4 loss Auburn.  With all that said, there's no guarantee of a Tide victory. Going to Jordan-Hare and getting a win is not a guarantee in the Iron Bowl.  While I'd love to see Saban drop this, these he always appears to return victorious in these bouts of true consequence.  I expect a hyped up Tigers exploding out of the gate, but the sphincters will tighten and the inevitable Tide crush the souls of all who oppose.  Tide: 27--Aub: 24
Hoying: Nick Saban is 8-4 against Auburn as coach of the Tide. Those 8 Auburns he beat entered this week with 5, 7, 7, 3, 8, 6, 8, and 7 wins. The ones to which he lost? 7, 11, 10, and 9 wins. And wouldn't you know it, this year the Tigers host the Tide with an 8-win squad, right in the twilight zone between Saban superlativeness and Saban frustration. But that was then. Let's look at now. Now one of the best players in the country, perhaps in the history of the sport, will not be playing QB for the Tide. Instead they have a guy called Jones (no, not Cardale Jones) who has looked the part against a couple of less than excellent opponents typical of the Tide's schedule this season. Look, BoNix is no prize either, but he's had a whole season to grow and progress, and, yeah he's still probably worse than Jones at this point. But the Auburn D has been for real all year long. Recall those 41 points the Tide hung on LSU? Auburn held the Tigers to 23 and were actually a threat to win, unlike the Tide. Saban's boys would love to craft a season-closing blowout for the Playoff selectors to chew on for the next couple of weeks, but they'll have their hands full just getting the W. It won't happen. Tide: 23--Auburn: 24
Schweinfurth: I have no feel for this game. Auburn is kind of a "meh" team who BoNixes their way to wins. Bama without Tua and all the injuries on defense is not a top tier team this year (despite what the rankings say). It is so hard to pick against Nick Saban, especially when his team already has a loss. But he is 3-4 in games when the Tide are favored by 3 points or less. The spread is 3. Pick Auburn. Tide: 14--Auburn: 17
Seeberg:  Obviously this rivalry depends largely on the answer to this query:  Just how good is THIS backup Jones QB?  A:  Not as good as Cardale.  Auburn is a respectable squad with a perpetual chip on it's shoulder when it faces it's in-state rival.  Oddly, this clash features not only strength-on-strength (Tide O vs. Auburn D) but also weakness vs. weakness as Auburn's Bo Nix has been streaky at best yet the Tide have been sieve-like on D for long stretches this season.  So, reasonably talented backup QB vs. highly talented frosh QB?  I believe this contest is "talent-equated" enough for the prior underdog to take advantage of Tua's injury (in all seriousness I hope that guy doesn't go Bo Jackson and can play for 15 years in the pros, hate seeing that happen) to steal away another precious W against the Tide.  Tide: 20--Auburn: 23

Wisconsin Badgers @ _innesota Golden Gophers
Draper: Truly, biggest battle with regard to the playoff takes place in the Land of 10000 Lakes.  The Gophers could shock the world with another 2 wins, but it starts here vs. their rivals for the ax.  I really don't know what to expect.  The Gophers are the unknown scrappy squad that threw it all against the wall against Penn State and burst forth in victorious fashion.  The Badgers have done Badger things of just pounding the rock in the usual boring fashion and winning on sheer size.  I think I'd rather face the evil I know in Indy, but the Gopher season will essentially assure Fleck the B1G COY (because of course it will).  The Gophers are a lot better than the country gives credit, but the Badgers can control the clock in a cold weather bout.  Gophers have the advantage at QB, but will fall just short.  UW: 24--Gophers: 20
Hoying: For the third week in the last four, the nation's eyes turn to the Golden Gophers as they continue to drive the narrative in the B1G West. The win over PSU was nice, and the Gophers looked very good doing it, but the cushion over Wisconsin it bought has since disintegrated. It would be unfair to say this year's Gophers are essentially last year's Northwestern Wildcats, only with the luck bouncing in their favor in their nonconference tilts. Their QB is a legit threat and the defense has stood strong all season, even in the loss to Iowa. Wisconsin hasn't looked invincible since their hot 6-0 start but Jonathan Taylor hasn't been stopped by anyone not wearing scarlet and gray, and I don't think the Gophers have the talent in their front 7 to reduce his effect on this one. There is space to throw on the Wisconsin secondary, but in a snowy wintry fracas like this is shaping up to be, ground > air. Cue another repeat (*groan*). UW: 27--Gophers: 20
Schweinfurth: This is a pick of what I want to happen versus what I think will happen. Minnesota is a great story. That win against Penn State was awesome. The problem for the Gophers is the defensive front. They just don't have the big guys to push the big Badger O-Line around. What gives you pause though is that this Gopher squad knows how to beat Wisconsin as they currently hold the axe. I can see the Gophers rallying around their teammate who is undergoing his fourth(!) cancer treatment this week. I'll call it. PJ Fleck rows his boat to Indy. UW: 10--Gophers: 13
Seeberg: As you can read above, those of us at Let's Go Bucks aren't the biggest fans of repeat contests in one season.  Sadly, it looks as though we're headed there despite our wishes.  Lousy weather across the north cues a heavy dose of the *second* best RB in the conference in Jonathan Taylor.   Additionally, the reduced passing won't allow Antoine Winfield Jr. to produce any plays in the Gopher secondary.  Negating a squad's best defender is rarely a recipe for win, but it is a recipe for Wiscy.  Oh well, 38-7 again is fine by this Buckeye blogger.  UW: 28--Gophers: 17

Oklaho_a Sooners @ Oklaho_a State Cowboys
Draper: The battle in Stillwater has a little shine taken off as the Sooners have guaranteed another tilt vs. the Bears, but this is always nasty.  Chuba Hubbard has gotten national attention, but I think a lot of it is due getting an excessive total of carries.  The Sooners can't play in anything but barnburners at the end of the season, but I don't expect that here.  Hurts explodes and assures his appearance in New York (hooray bronze!) while the standard shootout returns.  If CeeDee plays, the Sooners won't look back.  OU: 48--OSU: 32
Hoying: Apparently there's a running back called Chuba Hubbard that's outrushing Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, and every other feature back in the country. And apparently he plays for the Cowboys, which is good news for the boys in Stillwater, since their starting QB, Spencer Sanders, will not be appearing on the field this Saturday. I would love to pick against OU here; they have been begging to be tagged these past 3 weeks, but a pass-deficient offense is not going to get it done against the Sooners. Jalen Hurts has yet to be stopped and that's not about to change now. Sooners win going away in their last tune-up before they get to face Baylor...again (GROAN). OU: 45--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Good news for Ok State, the Sooners can't play defense anymore (again). The bad news is that they have to guard CeeDee Lamb. The dude is a beast. This game is a typical Big 12 shootout. Hurts will put up his requisite numbers and move on. OU: 42--OSU: 38
Seeberg: The Cowboys have quietly put together a decent season in the Big 12 as all the attention has been on the Sooners and Baylor and top 10 6-5 Texas.  However, in Tide-like fashion, sadly, their QB had surgery on his opposable digit and is gone for the rest of the year.  Enter Jalen Hurts, hoping to get invited to NYC and wanting to put up big stats with just two weeks left (can they just invite only Joe Burrow?  Like, is that legal?)  Regardless, Hurts will likely get an invite and we'll be treated to a second repeat contest on conference crown week.  Hooray?OU: 45--OSU: 24

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: And now we return to the greatest rivalry in sport.  TTUN has been playing able football since the second half of PSU and actually defeated a few squads of note.  This is what the Harbaugh was supposed to bring to Ann Arbor, you know, a win against a decent squad in his first four years.  The victory over the Irish was resounding and felt like the corner was turned.  I don't know how far I believe they have trekked along the route to ok-ness, but they have certainly gotten better since day 1.  The receiver talent is undeniable (although the Buckeyes are better) and the defense is pretty good, but I just don't believe in the QB. Patterson was supposed to be the savior that ol' Harbaugh developed into a star....and yet....  Honestly, the Buckeyes are better at every single position.  Of course, that doesn't guarantee victory, but it doesn't hurt.  Chase Young fortifies a trip to the Big Apple with 1.5 sacks and a ton of pressure, Fields and Dobbins throw their hats in the ring to join Chase in New York and the Buckeyes suffer the slings and arrows, yet return to C-bus undefeated.  It won't be easy, but no freebie turnovers to help the Wolverines. Expect a little turnover luck to fall to the Scarlet and Gray.  OSU: 38 -- TSUN: 24
Hoying: Good news, everyone! The "talent-equated" Penn State offense was nigh-ineffective against the Silver Bullets in the Shoe last week. Unfortunately, this week's tilt isn't being played in the Shoe, as the Buckeyes face their first quality opponent on the road this season. Since taking over in 2015, Coach Harbaugh has suffered a total of 4 losses in Ann Arbor: 2 to Sparty (whoa, he has trouble with the snap!) and 2 to our beloved Bucks. Can lightning strike thrice? It should: the Buckeye secondary proved last week they're totally capable of keeping up with a stable of talented WRs, especially when the D-line is terrorizing the QB all day. Penn State's backup QB was able to find a bit of running space, which is a bit troubling as Shea Patterson has alike ability, but the overall effect wasn't enough to offset the sacks and hurries. The Buckeye running attack continues to face top-ranked defenses and blast through with ease. I believe the school that wins the rushing battle has won the last 18 iterations of this rivalry. After crushing the Fighting Irish, the Wolverines declared that they "hit our stride," and they've certainly looked the part since then. But their rushing attack doesn't hold a candle to ours, and neither does their passing, recent successes notwithstanding. Still, I have an awful nagging feeling that this one is going to be quite a bit closer than it ought to be. The Buckeyes have locked up the East and the Wolverines are ravenous, desperate for a win and just adequately able to cause not a few issues for our boys. Good guys win, but expect to be on edge for a full four quarters. The Double Deuces, JK Dobbins and Chase Young, along with the slobs up front, are the difference to earn the eighth pair of gold pants in a row. OSU: 27--TSUN: 24
Schweinfurth: The Bucks were finally tested last week...and they passed. In reality, that game was scoreboard close. Ohio State dominated every aspect of the game and Penn State really only had one drive. Flip to the other side and everyone is talking about how Harbooger has figured out his offense. Yup, playing the mid to bottom of the B1G and a Notre Dame team that quit will let you pad stats all day. Here's the thing, the Bucks put up 62 on TTUN's D last year without blinking an eye. That Wolverine front seven was loaded with talent. Most of that talent is now playing on Sundays. I can see a scenario where the Bucks jump all over TTUN early and then the doubt creeps in, and then it's out of hand again. I do see this being a close game, however. The difference in this game will be Chase Young and coaching. I'll take the Bucks to cover. This team is just too loaded. Go Bucks, Beat Blue! OSU:35--TTUN:17 
Seeberg: OK Buckeye Nation, I say it every blanking year, and it bears repeating, ESPECIALLY this year.  As a child of the Cooper era (as all four of us are) I will, 'til the bitter end, possess an unnerving, bordering on absurd case of paranoia surrounding The Ga_e.  Year after year we entered the contest with superior talent and left with a head-scratching L.  This year?  The paranoia has returned, ten-fold.  The Bucks have looked near-perfect all season...until last week when- listen now- a top 15 foe used lousy weather and turnovers to their advantage to keep a contest stunningly close despite being outplayed in literally every non-turnover statistic.  Enter this Saturday.  34 degrees, wintry weather, and a reasonably talented top 15- not even on the road now- a squad with a long and terrifying history of winning these contests against opponents they had no business hanging with beyond a half.  Ryan Day puckered up tighter than the lid on a pickle jar last week when he witnessed things unraveling.  That is the ONLY solace I take away.  IF this one is close- which it likely will be- I hope he will have seen the error of his ways and allow Fields the free will to still throw the ball, attack between the hashes with the pass, run Fields only on occasion, attack the edges with Dobbins and screens, and not totally Tressel-up, er, button-up the playbook with a lead.  Get Chase Young loose, stay true to what has brought us here, and head to Indy 12-0.  Go Bucks.  Beat Blue.  OSU: 31--TSUN: 21

Upset Special
Draper: Colorado over Utah
Hoying: Texas A&_ over LSU
Schweinfurth: South Carolina over Cle_son
Seeberg: Florida State over Florida

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 13


Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave a response below and beat blue.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Louisiana State (unchanged)
2. Ohio State (unchanged)
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4. Oklahoma (unchanged)
5. Georgia (down 1)
6. Minnesota (up 1)
7. Alabama (up 2)
8a. Penn State (down 2)
8b. Utah (up 3)
10. Baylor (up 2)
11. Wisconsin (up 1)
12. Michigan (up 2)
13. Florida (down 3)
14. Oregon (down 7)
15. Notre Dame (unchanged)
16. Auburn (unchanged)
17. Iowa (unchanged)
18. Cincinnati (up 1)
19. Boise State (up 1)
20. Memphis (down 2)
21. Oklahoma State (unchanged)
22. Virginia Tech (up 1)
23. Appalachian State (up 1)
24. USC (unranked)
25. Navy (unranked)

Others receiving votes: Louisville, Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona State

Dropped from rankings: #21b SMU, #25 Texas A&M

Let's Go Bucks Heisman Index
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--OU)

Others receiving votes: Justin Fields (QB--OSU), JK Dobbins (RB--OSU) 

Draper Top 25
1. Ohio State (up 1)
2. Louisiana State (down 1) 
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4. Georgia (unchanged)
5. Oklahoma (up 1)
6. Minnesota (up 2)
7. Penn State (down 2)
8. Florida (down 1) 
9. Alabama (up 1)
10. Utah (up 1)
11. Wisconsin (up 1)
12. Baylor (up 1)
13. Auburn (up 1)
14. Michigan (up 1)
15. Oregon (down 6)
16. Notre Dame (unchanged)
17. Iowa (unchanged)
18. Cincinnati (unchanged)
19. Memphis (unchanged)
20. Boise State (unchanged)
21. Oklahoma State (unchanged) 
22. Virginia Tech (unchanged)
23. Appalachian State (unchanged)
24. USC (new)
25. Navy (new)

Dropped from rankings:  #24 SMU, #25 Navy

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. JK Dobbins (RB--OSU)


Hoying Top 25
1. Louisiana State (unchanged)
2. Ohio State (unchanged)
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4. Georgia (up 1)
5. Oklahoma (up 2)
6. Baylor (up 3)
7. Minnesota (down 1)
8. Penn State (down 4)
9. Alabama (up 1)
10. Wisconsin (up 2)
11. Michigan (up 2)
12. Notre Dame (up 4)
13. Iowa (up 2)
14. Auburn (unchanged)
15. Utah (up 2)
16. Florida (down 8)
17. Cincinnati (up 3)
18. Oregon (down 7)
19. Boise State (unchanged)
20. USC (unranked)
21. Oklahoma State (up 1)
22. Louisville (unranked)
23. Virginia (up 2)
24. Kansas State (unranked)
25. Virginia Tech (down 1)

Dropped from rankings: 
#18 Memphis, #21 Southern Methodist, #23 Appalachian State

A few notes:

  • LSU and Ohio State are separated by a razor's edge. An Ohio State win this week would put them up to #1, and a win over Minnesota would cement them there. Another win over Wisconsin would likely make things very, very close.
  • I really can't explain the Florida drop other than realizing I had been giving them way too much credit for the Auburn win and not nearly enough grief for playing 2 FCS teams. 
  • As for the lower Group of 5 teams falling out, the longer the season goes, the better the borderline Power 5 resumes look, because the Power 5 teams play better opponents week in and week out. SMU losing also killed Memphis's best win.

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--OU)

Schweinfurth Top 25
1. LSU (same)
2. Ohio State (same)
3. Clemson (same)
4. Oklahoma (same)
5. Utah (up 1)
6. Minnesota (up 1)
7. Baylor (up 4)
8. Georgia (up 1)
9. Alabama (up 1)
10. Penn State (down 2)
11. Wisconsin (up 1)
12. Michigan (up 2)
13. Oregon (down 7)
14. Florida (down 1)
15. Notre Dame (same)
16. Memphis (same)
17. Cincinnati (same)  
18. Auburn (same)
19. Iowa (same)
20. Boise St. (same)
21. App State (up 1)
22. Oklahoma St. (up 2)
23. Navy (NR)
24. Virginia Tech (up 1)
25. Arizona State (NR)


Dropped from rankings: 21. SMU, 23. Texas A&M (NR)


Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
2. Justin Fields (QB--OSU)


Seeberg Top 25
1. LSU (same)
2. Ohio State (same)
3. Clemson (same)
4. Georgia (up 1)
5. Oklahoma (up 1)
6. Alabama (up 1)
7. Utah (up 3)
8. Minnesota (same)
9. Wisconsin (up 2)
10. Michigan (up 2)
11. Oregon (down 7)
12. Penn State (down 3)
13. Baylor (up 1)
14. Florida (down 1)
15. Notre Dame (same)
16. Boise State (same)
17. Auburn (same)
18. Cincinnati (same)
19. Iowa (up 1)
20. Virginia Tech (up 1)
21. Memphis (down 2)
22. Oklahoma State (same)
23. Navy (NR)
24. Iowa State (NR)
25. Appalachian State (same)


Dropped From Rankings: #23 SMU, #24 Indiana

Dropped From Rankings: 

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)