Friday, September 16, 2022

Week 3: Drop It, Rocket!

Standings:

1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 7-2 (0-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 6-3 (1-1 upset)
3.) Seeberg 5-4 (0-2 upset)

The best thing about being 2-0 is the chance to feel much, much better than you did at this point last year for reasons we don't need to go into here. Quite a few teams across the country similarly have a chance to go 3-0, and there's even a few one loss teams hanging around the rankings (because why rank a team like Marshall or Appalachian State when Baylor, Pitt, and Utah are available?). Not much will shake up the conference standings this week, but quite a few teams still have a chance to ruin their Playoff hopes by playing that out of conference opponent that was just too tough for them to handle.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: Welcome home, Ducks.  It's not the Dawgs (you can breathe again) but BYU is coming off a very nice win over a top 10 Baylor.  This is a game where we find out if Oregon is a quality win for UGA or an overrated pile of poo (looking at you, Notre Dame).  I tend to think these two teams are pretty evenly matched talentwise, but Autzen is a heck of an environment to test the Cougars.  The close win at Baylor was a a major feather in BYU's cap and message that they truly belong in the power 5, but I don't know if they're ready for a big road game in a tough environment, against a quality team.  Autzen tilts the battle to the Ducks (and more chest pounding by the SEC).  BYU: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: One of these teams got the Coach 30 treatment for its only FBS game this year, and the other one just knocked off one of last year's P5 conference champions (and Sugar Bowl champion). OK, I get it. Georgia isn't Baylor (probably). But... BYU beat Baylor without their top two wideouts. I know, Ohio State is doing that every week, but the Cougars were still able to get the air attack going, and now face an Oregon defense that made Stetson Bennett look like Josh Allen (the NFL version, not the Wyoming version). Oregon is somehow favored in this matchup, but BYU should win it straight up. BYU: 31--Ore: 27
Schweinfurth: BYU is getting a ton of hype right now after a huge win last week. Oregon just hasn't lived up to the billing thus far (although most teams would get wrecked by Georgia right now). One of these teams will prove to be way overrated. I think it's Oregon. BYU:35--21
Seeberg:  BYU managed a solid win against defending Big XII champ Baylor last week in spite of being down two of their best WRs.  That type of quality win is tough to ignore.  Oregon, meanwhile, got lambasted against UGA before taking their frustrations out on an FCS squad last week so it's hard to figure out what to make of them.  This game should tell us a lot about both teams.  I, for one, think the home-field advantage in this one tips the proverbial scales to the Ducks and their highlighter-esque uniforms.  Ducks late.  BYU: 24--Ore: 31
 
Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: This game holds a lot of the same interest as the previous game...super-duper-meh. These teams have their years of punching for the top tier, but they're not there at this point.  Auburn has really faded into obscurity aside from the random victory (or major choke job) against the Tide.  Penn State seems to just live in the perpetual 'this is the year we finally turn the corner' before MASSIVELY returning to meh-land.  This feels like another 'we're back' game before another crash and burn for the Lions.  Jordan-Hare gives the Tigers a chance, but Auburn simply isn't very good this year.  PSU: 30--Aub: 17
Hoying: These teams may not be in the top 10, but this just might be the highest-stakes game of the week, because it feels like one of these teams is getting ready to fall off a cliff. Penn State, while perhaps not a true national title contender, was nevertheless more often than not in the discussion from about 2005 on, while during the same period Auburn won a title, played for another, and got screwed out of a chance for a third try. But now, Auburn seems to be on an extended losing streak. QB BoNix left for greener and yellower pastures in the Pac-12 for some reason (maybe to get away from Georgia...wait...) and his replacement, TJ Finley, is even worse. Penn State has their own usual problems: so-so QB play, no blocking, and awful play-calling and game management. I got burned believing in Penn State over and over and over last year (except, ironically, against Auburn) and...I'm ready to be hurt again. Auburn is in serious trouble. PSU: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: Has anyone actually watched an Auburn game this year? They seem stuck in no man's land this year. As much as I deride Franklin's coaching decisions, the Lions should win this game. It should be entertaining to see how each team tries to out fail each other.  PSU: 20--Aub: 13
Seeberg:  Kudos to these two squads for setting up a home and home.  PSU snuck out a win last year at home and they're essentially the same team this year, running it back with Sean Clifford.  Auburn is...Bo Nix-less and, amazingly, even worse.  The ceiling with Clifford is pretty low for the Nittany Lions, but the floor is actually pretty high.  Beating an SEC team on the road should earn him a few more starts before the fan base clamors for the freshman backup.  PSU: 27--Aub: 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
Draper: All I really know about these teams is that NC State entered the year as the darkhorse in the ACC and narrowly avoided my upset special in week 1.  As for Texas Tech, well, they're undefeated....yay.  This feels like a game the Wolfpack have to win to maintain any momentum going into the ACC slate if they have further aspirations.  I'll lean on the home crowd in Raleigh to be the difference, but I wouldn't be shocked if Texas Tech shows that NC State was a preseason darling flop.  TT: 17--NCSt: 24
Hoying: I know this isn't a ranked matchup. After all, the AP voters have to have some standards. All Texas Tech did was beat ranked Houston last week; they didn't go the extra mile like other Texas teams and lose to Alabama or Appalachian State. Every year, there are a few teams without recent success that are hyped up beyond all reason, and none this year stands out more starkly than the NC State Wolfpack. NC State has not won 10 games in a season since Philip Rivers was slinging the rock back in 2002. NC State did not win the Atlantic division of the ACC in 2021, the one season during the Playoff era in which Clemson and Florida State both faceplanted (Wake Forest won it instead). And this very season, NC State remains in the ranks of the ranked because East Carolina couldn't make an extra point or a field goal in the closing minutes of the season opener (*Bengals flashbacks intensify*). Maybe beating Houston at home in double overtime isn't terribly impressive, but I'll still stick with the hot hand. TTU: 27--NCSt: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, I have no idea about either of these teams. I guess I'll pick the Wolfpack, just because? TTU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg:  Well let's see, what have we here?  The Red Raiders got a resume boosting win against ranked opponent *checks notes* Houston?  Not sure that qualifies.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack were a preseason darling before sneaking out a win against  *checks notes again* East Carolina?  Yikes.  I have serious doubts that either team is "for real" or "back" or whatever terminology we're using these days, but Carter Finley should give the home team a boost before inevitably losing to Duke or another ACC also-ran program.  Wolfpack pull away late.  TT: 24--NCSU: 34

Michigan State Spartans @ Washington Huskies
Draper: A fun weird Power 5 inter-conference matchup. Michigan State is still riding the wave from Mel Tucker's inaugural season, but Ken Walker isn't walking through that door (although he is in Seattle...).  IU legend, Michael Penix leads the Huskies into battle against a familiar foe.  Once again, I don't have much insight into this battle, but I'm intrigued as to what all this means.  I really don't think MSU is that talented with Payton Thorne at the helm, but UW is still rebuilding.  The Seattle venue makes this juicy, but I think I'll lean on the big slobberknockers to get it done on the coast.  I think these teams are more similar than the rankings suggest, but Sparty wins ugly.  MSU: 24--UW: 20
Hoying: Another puzzler: Michigan State is ranked #11, Washington is not ranked, and Washington is favored? Disrespekt is flying in all directions in this matchup. After all the craziness we've seen in the first two weeks of this season, how many teams have looked consistently dominant both weeks? Georgia, Wake, Ole Miss, and, I would argue, these two teams. Sure, they've combined to play 3 MAC teams and Portland State, but we've seen team after team struggle with lesser competition in this young season. MSU QB Payton Thorne is clearly missing WR Jalen Nailor this season (though Jayden Reed is still there) as the Spartans continue to rely on their running game even after the departure of superstar RB Kenneth Walker. Meanwhile out west, QB Michael Penix is doing his best to hold both ACLs intact and recapture some of that 2020 magic. Thankfully he only has to play one Big Ten team this year but unfortunately it's the one at hand. At least his O-line should be better than the atrocious unit that was getting him killed on an annual basis at Indiana. You surely remember what happened the last time the Spartans played a team that could air it out. Heck, Penix himself did it to MSU back in that crazy 2020 season to the tune of a 24-0 whomping. I don't think MSU has magically figured him out, so as long as he stays upright, he should be able to overcome what was all too often a liability of a Husky defense in 2021. MSU: 30--UW: 33
Schweinfurth: This is an interesting one to me and it feels as if this is that annual "Sparty No" game. I do think Michigan State is better than Washington, but Seattle has always proved tricky for B1G teams. Sparty should win, but this is probably closer than it should be. MSU: 28--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here of oft-overlooked power five programs who've done remarkably well in the playoff era (both have made the playoff actually).  Sparty hit transfer portal gold with Kenneth Walker III last season but they've seemed a bit disjointed thus far trying to duplicate that transfer magic.  UW's QB is a name we know well, perennially injured Michael Penix of former Hoosier glory.  I would expect the post-Dantonio Spartans to whip up a solid defensive scheme against a QB they know well, and escape the west coast with a win that may look pretty good late in the season.  MSU: 27--UW: 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: Is THE U back? Is A&M garbage? I think the answer is 'not yet' and 'probably not'.  Cristobal is getting the ball rolling in Miami, but it will take time to return to the level they want.  A&M are fresh off an inexplicable loss to App St, but the dirty secret is that the Mountaineers might be pretty good.  I'll credit the Aggies with holding App St to 17 points after the week 1 shootout in Boone, but it's still App St.  The offense is the issue in College Station so Jimbo has moved to all time name candidate and LSU transfer Max Johnson at QB.  I don't think this is enough to ignite the Aggies and return to greatness, but with throws like these, who can ask for more? Seriously, the A&M recruits/athletes are better than the Canes (for now).  Will that translate to success? Who knows? Regardless, I'll roll with the Aggies to 'right the ship' at Kyle Field.  It's too soon for the Canes, but with hype videos like this, the sky's the limit.  UM: 13--TAMU: 20
Hoying: Stop me if you've heard this one. "Oh, now Miami has a great QB. Look out, ACC!" We've been hearing this chorus ever since Brock Berlin took over for Ken Dorsey, and it's never quite panned out. The Hurricanes have won a total of one Coastal division title, which they parlayed into getting pasted by Clemson by 35 in the ACC Championship. I'm not saying that exact result can't happen again this season, but I'm going to be one of the last few on the Miami comeback train. That being said, I don't have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Texas A&M either. If the offense isn't moving the ball against Sun Belt teams, what hope do the Aggies have against a real defense? Does Miami have a real defense? Hard to say, as not many of these guys were starting last year (at least not for Miami; hooray for the transfer portal). A&M is going to get a nasty wake-up call when SEC play begins, although they're already living a nightmare now, but I don't trust Miami's defense to frustrate the Aggies to the extent App State did (am I going insane?). UM: 20--TAMU: 24
Schweinfurth: Last week was fun. TAMU losing to App State was one of the main reasons for that. The blueprint has been laid for how to beat the Aggies. A good run game and bleed the clock paid dividends last week. Here comes Miami. Remember what Mario Cristobal's Ducks pulled off last year against a team that couldn't man up against the run (looking at you Bucks)? Between the App State hangover and another team that will probably pound the ball, I'll take the Canes. UM: 21--TAMU: 17
Seeberg: Breaking news!  The Aggies have switched QBs for this game.  Let's get real though they had less than 100 yards passing AND running against Appalachian State so a quarterback switch is not going to be the panacea for which they're desperately searching.  Reminder, the Tar Heels scored SIXTY-THREE POINTS against our Columbus-beloved App St the week before.  They literally gave up 40 fourth-quarter points and still won.  I get the distinct impression that Jimbo's offensive woes (hey that rhymes!) are going to take more than a week to iron out.  Hurricanes mercifully remove the Aggies from the rankings.  UM: 20-TAMU: 13 

Toledo Rockets @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Here's another placeholder game for the Bucks to fix the mistakes before entering the conference schedule.  The Rockets shoot in at 2-0 and maybe have a little juice hoping to be the first Ohio team to knock off the Buckeyes since Oberlin.  I just can't see it happening.  The Buckeyes look to get JSN and Fleming back this weekend so the rich get richer.  I know many people want JSN held out until Wisconsin, but I think facing the live action is needed to get back into game shape.  The defense was played the bend don't break card, but there appeared to be a few gaps/missed assignments last week.  I'm chalking it up to the opponent and I want to see growth every week (Burke...please start playing like last year and not a chump).  The offense was a little slow out of the gates, but I think it was motivation.  Day and Co. should give the team a little kick in the butt to establish dominance early and allow for some rest in the latter quarters.  Stroud will be fine and should pump in monster numbers as well.  I expect the backups get some play in the 4th as we're on to Wisconsin.  Enjoy us old guys going down the ramp one more time (except for Tyler....he sucks).  UT: 17--OSU: 55  
Hoying: I like these boring writeups when Ohio State is playing well, the opponent is easily manageable, and a blowout is in the cards. There are still a few areas to clean up (secondary, penalties, having healthy receivers) but overall the Buckeyes are firing well on both sides of the ball. Still, I'd like to see one game up to Michigan September Heisman levels of devastation before the B1G slog begins next week, and Toledo is the perfect patsy. They don't throw the ball well, so if the Buckeyes can get up a couple scores early, we could be looking at a Michigan State-level meltdown. And with Jaxon and (maybe) Julian back on the field, and Pop and Chop cooking in the backfield, a couple early scores shouldn't be too tall of an order. UT: 13--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: There isn't much to say here. This game should be over by the end of the first half. I would like to see fewer penalties this week, especially fewer procedural ones. On offense, more TDs than punts this week would be nice (Bucks have punted 10 times already this year). On defense, get Denzel Burke right. Past that? More of the same please. Keep everyone healthy and act appropriately. UT: 10--52
Seeberg:  Ah yes, our yearly "keep some money in the state" game against a MAC foe.  Toledo comes rolling in at 2-0 with a schedule thus far that might even be worse than TTUN's.  My primary concern is the fact that reports suggest JSN might play.  I said it last week and I'll say it again.  Keep.  Him.  Off.  The.  Field.  He is superfluous in this one.  Let him get healthy before we hit conference play.  Julian Fleming, however, hasn't seen much of the field in his time thus far, so getting some game reps for him might be worth it if he's ready.  The offense was pretty hit or miss last week and that rhythm needs to be found relatively soon.  Also, where are the turnovers on defense?  I was told that would be a big part of things and not a single TO has been forced through two weeks, including one week against markedly inferior competition.  Turn the Rockets over, give Stroud a short field, RUN THE DAMN BALL, and get the starters out after the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  Please.  Thank you.  UT: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Oklahoma (SICKOS)
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Louisiana Tech over Clemson
Seeberg:  UTSA over Texas