Showing posts with label USC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USC. Show all posts

Friday, September 08, 2017

Week 2: A Night to Remember

Standings
1. Hoying (3-1, 0-1 upset)
2. Draper (2-2, 0-1 upset)
3. Schweinfuth (2-2, 0-1 upset)
4. Seeberg (2-2, 0-1 upset)

Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: Auburn has been one of those 'hot' teams in the off season but I'm not quite sold.  I love how Clemson is playing the 'disrespect' card while sitting in the top 5.  Clemson will be just fine but I don't know if they can surmount the Bama challenge again.  But the Auburn challenge in Death Valley? Yeah, I think they'll be fine.  Maybe Jarrett Stidham will return to his glory days at Baylor, but I think the Tigers (of Clemson) have more than enough firepower on both sides to take care of business.  Aub: 17--Clem: 34
Hoying: How much talent can a team lose and stay elite? Asking for a friend. No Deshaun Watson, no Mike Williams...no problem. Dabo has built a consistent winner at Clemson, while Auburn has been a year of Cam Newton, a string of miracle finishes, and a load of mediocrity over the last decade. There's no more to this than meets the eye. Aub: 16--Clem: 27
Schweinfurth: I predict the Tigers will win this game. Not good enough? I have no love for either of these teams. Mostly because one is an overrated SEC team and the other likes to violate other teams (ask Curtis Samuel). Auburn hasn't been the all powerful offense since Cam Newton graduated. Even with the questions Clemson had on offence entering the year, the defense is still more than capable of carrying this team to the playoffs. Aub: 17--Clem: 28
Seeberg:   I also laugh at the purported disrespect flying around Death Valley as Clemson sits in the top five.  They are, begrudgingly, reloading year in and year out a la Bama and the Bucks.  Meanwhile, Auburn is a solid squad considering it isn't even the best team in its own state and took Clemson to the brink of Clemsoning at home last year, but Death Valley will prove a different story.  Aub: 13--Clem: 27 

Georgia Bulldogs @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is Notre Dame 'back'? Have we realized how stupid making those claims are as of yet? No Jacob Eason for the Dawgs seems like the Irish could be poised to pounce, but Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are still healthy.  I don't think we're at the crash point for UGA yet so I'll roll with Kirby Smart for another week.  UGA: 27--ND: 17
Hoying: Ah, the has-beens get a visit from the never-really-were. But for a late Amari Cooper TD to lifting Alabama over UGA in the 2012 SEC Championship game, this could've been a nice national championship matchup (because Alabama-Notre Dame sure as hell wasn't). This game won't get Georgia any closer to their first SEC title since 2005, but it would be a nice signature win for the young Kirby Smart era, no matter how much of a mirage Notre Dame turns out to be (again).  Georgia can't lose their first visit north in 50 years (unless you count a visit to Colorado, which I don't), or else the other SEC teams will re-barricade themselves in Confederate territory until they finally add Ohio State and Michigan in the next round of expansion. UGA: 41--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: 1-0 over with the win being over a total mismatched team makes ND good again? Righhhht. This is a team coming off of a losing season and questions around Brian Kelly. Last I checked, Nick Chubb still has NCAA eligibility and he is really, really good. I will laugh as he has a monster day over a very overrated Irish team. UGA: 35--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Intriguing matchup of recent underachieving teams...if only considered so by their rabid fan bases as the rest of the nation sees these programs as second-tier these days.  Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are a class above the Golden Domers just about everywhere across the board (remember Nick Chubb?  Yeah he's been there for like 17 years now).  UGA pulls away in the second half.  UGA: 38--ND: 20

Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans
Draper: USC was certainly tested (surprisingly?) by a resilient Western Michigan team while Stanford just steamrolled Rice in Australia.  There's been an awful lot of love for the Cardinal, but I think the Trojans will be fine after a little growing pains.  Sam Darnold may not be the second coming, but he'll pull things together in week 2.  USC is like their fans and don't really get interested (somewhat) until a bigger game comes up so they'll be ready to go on Sat.  Fight On.  Stan: 30 -- USC: 37
Hoying: USC is back...again. Yeah, you can jump all over the Trojans for starting slowly last week, but at least they didn't get smoked by 46 like they did to open last season. USC has grown up and came of age on the big stage last year in Pasadena (no, not against UCLA). Unfortunately for them, Stanford has shown zero signs of slowing down, and the Cardinal smacked last year's Rose Bowl champs up in Palo Alto. Will another year of experience for star QB Sam Darnold and a change of venue make a difference? Nah. Stan: 21--USC: 20
Schweinfurth: So Sam Darnold for Heisman? Not so much. He looked absolutely average last week and USC barely squeaked by. Stanford has owned USC in this matchup because they play great defense and control the ball. David Shaw just has some voodoo curse over the Trojans. Darnold throws 2 picks again and the Cardinal win. Stan: 28--USC: 24
Seeberg:  USC forgot to play for about 2.5 quarters last week so it's difficult to gauge just how good they might be.  The talent is not in question, only their ability to gel cohesively.  If they do, Darnold can still rip through the Pac-12 and hang out in New York for an important trophy presentation in a few months.  If not?  Well, the Cardinal will show us what that may look like on Saturday.  Fight off.  Stan: 34--USC: 24

Oklahoma Sooners @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: Do we get the repeat beatdown of last year, or are the chinks in the Buckeye Armor too much for a hot Sooner team?  Last week was a fantastic benchmark test for the Buckeyes getting them up to game speed a little early while OU simply walked over the Little Sisters of the Poor.  Baker Mayfield looked great last week, but doing that in the Shoe is another thing all together.  I don't have faith that OU's defense will stop Barrett, Dobbins, Weber, and co., but by the same token, the Sooners will score.  The hyped battle is OSU's D-line vs. the Sooner's O-line.  I actually think the reverse may be more impactful to see if the OSU running game can get work done.  The Sooners will have revenge on their minds, but the Buckeyes have their eyes on the prize. 4+ sacks for OSU enroute to high scoring victory.  OU: 38 -- OSU: 41
Hoying: To win the big games, you need great players and/or great coaching. At what point do we face the harsh truth that Oklahoma doesn't really have either? Bud Elliott of SBNation has been tracking a stat he calls the "Blue Chip Ratio," or what percentage of a team's signees are 4 or 5 star recruits. If you're not above 50%, you're not winning a national championship. The Buckeyes are sitting pretty at 71%, while Oklahoma sits right around the top of the Big 12 at 45%. Yeah, Baker Mayfield is special, and the OU O Line is pretty good, but the Bucks can pretty much outclass them at every other position (yeah, maybe even wide receiver). And the Sooners are still breaking in a brand new coach who suddenly succeeded to the throne a few short months before the season started. When in doubt, pick the team with the better players and the better coach, especially when they're playing at home. The Buckeyes wore down Indiana in the second half, and the same will happen to Oklahoma. The Bucks exorcise some prime time non-conference home game demons (Texas, USC, Virginia Tech...). Even if this one does make me extremely nervous. OU: 27--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: Last week I asked a bunch of questions and not many were answered. Yes, Paris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon hit some home runs, but Zone Six still can't take the top off a defense (yes, Paris should have caught the ball and it would have satisfied the requirement). The chart I saw showed only like two deep shots the entire game. It's understandable because the Hoosiers were giving up the mid-range routes, but you HAVE to hit one in this game. J.K. Dobbins is a beast and it will be good to have Weber back to take some of the load off the freshman. Defensively, the lack of experience showed last week, but adjustments were made. I think the Indiana WRs played over their skill set in the first half. Oklahoma won't run that tempo in the offense so the defensive backs should't be as gassed. The defensive line is as advertised. I think we see a repeat of last week. Oklahoma will move the ball in the first half, but adjustments will be made and the D-Line will take over. Dobbins and Weber combine for 150+ and JT throws for 300 again. Should be a fun one to watch. Go Bucks!
OU: 28--OSU: 31
Seeberg:  OOOOOOOOOOklahoma where we forget that we have to play D.  However, even that beleaguered half of the ball looked good for the Sooners against UTEP last week.  Actually, several teams looked better than I'd hoped last week *cough Penn State cough* but alas, here we are with another huge early season matchup.  Lincoln Riley is presumably the next "big thing" in coaching, but he already has the Oklahoma gig and there aren't too many any better.  Will his brilliant play-calling win the day?  Sure will...except it's a night game.  By mid-second quarter last week our new offensive minds finally figured out that RUNNING to set up the pass is better than PASSING to set up the pass and it was a 35-7 second-half deluge on the Hoosiers.  And hey, 45-24 worked well last year, why not again?  Bucks big.  OU: 24--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Michigan
Hoying: Boise State over Washington State
Schweinfurth: Pitt over Penn St.
Seeberg:  Western Michigan over Michigan State

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Week 8 - It's Not Like Next Week Is Any Better

Standings
1) Seeberg              29-8    (0-7 upset)
2) Draper                26-11    (4-3 upset) 
2) Hoying               26-11    (1-6 upset)
2) Schweinfurth     26-11    (1-6 upset)


Hope you enjoyed last week, college football fans. These games suuuuuuuuck. At least we get to see the Buckeyes again before their Halloween bye.


#19 California Bears @ UCLA Bruins

Draper: Cal has been rising quickly under Sonny Lubick and his fast paced offense.  Jared Goff seeks to be the next great Cal QB, albeit quite different from A.A.Ron Rodgers.  UCLA had the crazy hype after a quick start but the Bruins and freshman 'sensation' Josh Rosen have slowly disappeared from memory like a fart in the wind.  The game is in the Rose Bowl but all the west coast fans have leapt off the band wagon and now are focused on...well, all sports kinda suck out there now....Golden State? Bears of the Golden variety triumph in a high scoring affair. Cal: 45--UCLA: 34
Hoying: Welcome to Rivalry Week. California vs. California. Bears vs. Bears. Blue and Gold vs. Blue and Gold. Are you excited yet? Yeah, me neither. Still, this is the wacky Pac-12, where almost every team (sorry, Oregon State and Colorado) is still chasing a berth at Sinkhole Stadium at season's end. Cal still controls its own destiny, and it remains undefeated in games in which QB Jared Goff doesn't throw 5 interceptions. UCLA is reeling after getting blown out in back-to-back games. The Bruins' defense just can't stop anyone, giving up 56 points to a Stanford team that racked up all of 6 against Northwestern. Expect the Bear O to go Goff on the Bruin D, and watch UCLA QB Josh Rosen crumble under the pressure yet again. Cal: 40--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: Ahh yes, another PAC-12 game. I don't have a bias against the PAC-12, I just hate that they all play after I go to bed. With that said, I really don't know much about either team and I'll just make a pick. Cal: 38--UCLA: 35

Seeberg:  Not 100% sure what to make of this game.  UCLA has a defense like a steel sieve, but the last time we saw Jared Goff he was a turnover machine in a narrow loss to Utah.  Should I be impressed that Cal had 5 INTs and only lost to Utah by 6?  I don't know, because I still don't fully trust that the Utes are that good.  My educated guess is that the loss of Myles Jack in the UCLA defense was bigger than anyone realized at the time, and with two weeks to prep, a Cal team looking to re-establish itself after the Utah loss will be too much offensively for the Bruins to handle.  Cal: 42--UCLA: 34

#15 Texas A&M Aggies @ #21 Ole Miss Rebels
Draper: Ole Miss returns to the Grove after losing to perennial championship contender Memphis.  Memphis may be really good, but Ole Miss is supposed to be one of the premier programs in the premier league.  The loss of Robert Nkemdiche led to a meltdown.  This week will test the intestinal fortitude of the Rebels.  How do you respond to a blowout loss to Florida in the Swamp and a surprising loss to an undefeated but supposedly overmatched foe?  A&M was beat fairly soundly at home by the all and powerful Bama, but other than that blip, they have been quite good.  I expect a rebound game for Ole Miss.  Yeah, they could crash and burn, but returning home to the crazy fans, I expect the Rebels to play for their lives.  TAMU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Is Memphis a legitimate playoff contender, or is Ole Miss just a complete mirage? After spotting Ole Miss a quick 14-0 lead, the Tigers dominated the Rebels at home last Saturday. The Landsharks were shredded through the air, particularly after superstar DL Robert Nkemdiche left the game with a concussion. That's bad news with Kyle Allen and the Aggies coming to town. This isn't the Alabama secondary that's going to return 3 Allen throws for TDs. The Rebels are going to have to outscore A&M, and that's tough without a running game, no matter how good Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has been. Memphis would love Ole Miss to run the table and win the SEC, legitimizing their big win, but the wheels have fallen off and the cart is about to crash. TAMU: 38--Miss: 34

Schweinfurth: How is Ole Miss still ranked? Because they beat Bama? Memphis put a beat down on the Rebels last week and the Landshark defense is reeling after losing Nkemdiche (probably for a few weeks too). Be prepared for a long game with all the passing (this one may take over 4 hours). I'll take A&M in the marathon. TAMU: 42--Miss: 31
Seeberg:  This is a matchup of two oddly similar teams.  Both have solid QBs but no running game.  Both have legit chances to win the SEC West but are coming off of stinging losses.  Both have one conference loss so this is essentially an elimination game (though the Rebels' loss to Memphis may have them out of CFP contention anyway).  I think the combination of Robert Nkemdiche potentially being out (no word yet as of Wednesday afternoon as I type this) and Memphis torching the Rebels through the air provide the perfect blueprint for Sumlin to get his Aggies back on track.  TAMU: 34--Miss: 28


#1 Utah Utes @ USC Trojans
Draper:  This is the one.  SC could be in complete disarray after the Sark disaster, but they acquitted themselves quite well in South Bend when there was nothing positive to play for.  Utah has a nice win against Michigan at home that has aged well, a close win over Cal that is nice...but at home, a good win over ASU...at home, and a blowout of Oregon in Eugene.  Normally, that last would be incredibly valuable but not as much this year.  The Trojans have an incredible amount of talent and this is the week in which it shows.  They won't break any records this year, but they'll screw with some Utah hopes.  I'm surprised SC is favored, but I lean with Vegas.  Utah: 28--USC: 31
Hoying: No coach? Check. No great wins to date? Check. Favored to beat a team with a legitimate case to be ranked #1? Chec.....what??? A week after Utah handled the only team with a winning record USC's beaten (Arizona State) and USC lost by multiple scores to "eh" team Notre Dame, the bookies are giving Utah more than a field goal in this matchup. What gives? Cody Kessler has been pretty good...against crap, but the Trojans looked completely lost against Washington 2 weeks ago and I don't think the middle of a coaching change is the time for USC to start solving tough defenses. Remember that the Utes forced 6 turnovers to grind out a win against Cal. Kessler has thrown 4 INTs himself in the Trojans' last 2 losses. Uh oh. I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid (or anything Sark offers me). Utah preserves the Pac-12's hope for an unbeaten champion. Utah: 28--USC: 20

Schweinfurth: Utah has looked good all season and USC is in bad shape without a head coach. Utah: 31--USC: 17
Seeberg:  I have to be honest- I assumed my colleagues had gone blind in one eye and had that milky film over the other eye in reporting that Utah was an underdog, yet somehow, they're right.  I admit I don't fully trust the Utes yet, but there's no reason to think a 3-3 team should be favored over the Utes...or is there?  The Trojans looked more than competent under 5-day head coach and presumably more sober than his predecessor Clay Helton in a 10-point loss at Notre Dame.  They've got talent for days...or at least hours, but no serviceable depth and no RB that has even 400 yards through 6 games.  Cody Kessler is good but he just can't do it by himself.  The Trojans find themselves in too many 2nd and 9s and 3rd and 10s to overcome and Utah stays perfect.  Utah: 34--USC: 28


#3 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: When I heard the news, I felt like Big Mike after saving the Buy More.  Joe Thomas Barrett IV returns under center to bring a sense of command and precision to the Buckeye offense.  Captain Smooth directs the offense like a symphony with dashing runs, precision passes, and an overall presence that the team can look to for solace.  The O-line certainly upped their game last week when JT returned and the seas parted as the magical misdirection returned.  Zeke found fewer defenders to deal with (JT had to be accounted for), the WR's blocked harder, and when needed, the short to intermediate passing game was very sharp.  Rutgers his never a team to strike hearts in the fears of men, but they are coming off a huge comeback over the Hoosiers...but now the Bucks have returned to form.  This won't be close.  My only request is that the defense stops giving up a few explosive plays a game. Show the nation what the Defending National Champs look like. OSU: 56--
Rutgers...more like Buttgers: 9
Hoying: We've been asking for it, and it's finally arrived: Just Touchdowns Barrett is back. What will a defense do given a full week to prepare for him? The two-headed monster has (probably) been a nightmare to prepare for, but now DCs can full their full attention towards stopping the read option. I don't expect any slowdown this week, since Rutgers is surrendering up almost 30 points a game (and 1/3 of their opponents were Kansas and Norfolk State). If you're desperate for something to hold your attention, watch how the Ohio State passing game develops. Will JT finally be on the same page as his receivers, or at least close enough to keep the drives alive? Will Ohio State even try to throw the ball after racking up over 300 yards on the ground against a pretty good Penn State defense? Will Cardale see more action in garbage time than during his starting duties the last 2 weeks? How long until Stephen Collier gets to hand the ball off to Bri'onte Dunn? Does Ohio State have a greater chance of losing this weekend or next? OSU: 49--Rut: 17
Schweinfurth: Rutgers has one player: Leonte Carroo. Rutgers QB? Not mobile and they have some meh RBs. I'm not real worried about the Silver Bullets this week. Yes, there are lots of injuries, but this game should be some good experience for the young Bucks. On offense, it's time to get into a rhythm. Expect lots of up tempo with JT at the helm. Barrett is a good distributor of the ball and should get Thomas and Miller in some short/medium routes as the defense sucks up to stop the run. This is going to be a rout and we should be able to get some important guys rest early. OSU: 56--Rutgers: 13
Seeberg:  OK first and foremost, the jerseys alone are great.  The all-black look?  We looked like Oregon State.  Wrong OSU to be emulating.  Not a good call.  All that aside, I STILL don't know what to make of the QB situation.  Is J.T. that much better?  Maybe...but probably not.  I am going to review the game play by play tomorrow but watching it live in the stadium I am about 90% certain Cardale did not even attempt one throw between the hashes, and he may not have even attempted one to someone inside the NUMBERS (or at least to a receiver that started inside the numbers except super-wide swing passes to Zeke).  It's as if the play callers are so enamored with his strong arm to stretch the field horizontally that they are forgetting to stretch the field vertically.  No crossing routes, no inside slants, no in routes, no posts, NOTHING anywhere near the middle of the field, and it didn't look as if Penn State was doing anything special to shut that area of the field off.  In any case, the red zone O is still clicking, and Zeke is getting more north and south runs finally.  The D was gashed again by some big runs.  Rutgers has a reasonably effective RB by committee attack, but no one special RB that will consistently give the Silver Bullets problems (unless Joshua Perry is out, heal up quick #37!).  I expect a pretty similar game to the blackout.  The best part of 7-0?  The chance to go 8-0.  OSU: 45--RUT: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Washington over Stanford
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Tennessee over Alabama
Seeberg:  I canNOT get one of these, ugh.  Let's try Boston College over Louisville.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Week 13 - Low Pressure System

Standings
1) Draper               36-18    (5-7 upset)
2) Hoying               35-19    (3-9 upset)
3) Seeberg              34-20    (1-11 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     33-21    (5-7 upset)

In meteorology, a low pressure system moving into your region of the atmosphere means that a storm will soon be coming.* In this week's college football landscape, the huge number of games that suck creates an atmosphere of very low pressure for the playoff contenders, with a huge storm on the horizon over the following two weeks.

In the meantime, we focus on the Pac-12 South and B1G West races, with 5 and 4 teams still in the running, respectively. 

*Yes, meteorology people, I know, this is a bit of an over-generalization. Please withhold your angry comments.

#22 USC Trojans "@" #10 UCLA Bruins
Draper: UCLA is getting better every week and has wuietly entered the top 10.  SC on the other hand seems to have faded over the season. Hundley is looking pretty good, but more importantly, the line is protecting him...a little.  Kessler is having a nice season, but consistency is an issue.  I'm leaning on the hot hand right now which points to the Bruins.  I don't feel great about it, but Sark hasn't shaken the Earth in LA.  UCLA has too much to play for with a potential rematch with the Ducks in their grasp.  USC: 31--UCLA: 38
Hoying: Five teams vie for the Pac-12 South crown; only UCLA controls its own destiny. First hurdle: its biggest rival, the only conference opponent against whom the Bruins have a losing record. UCLA proudly proclaimed that "the LA monopoly is over" back in 2008, but that prophecy didn't come true until the script flipped 2 years ago. Now it's the Trojans who are struggling, giving up late TDs to Utah and Arizona State and needing a last-second missed FG to get by Arizona. Not that UCLA's been banking style points either, needing 2OTs to get by awful awful Colorado. Astoundingly, it's USC QB Cody Kessler who's been the star of the Pac-12 South this season, not everybody's preseason Heisman darling, Brett Hundley of UCLA. Will he be enough to overcome a lack of run defense and focus? Not this year. Hundley's escapability will make up for the Bruins' suspect pass protection and lead UCLA to their 3rd straight victory over the hated Trojans. USC: 24--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: Ahh, the battle for L.A.  It does appear that the So Cal monopoly is over as USC has trailed off in recent years (thanks Lane Kiffin).  This year has been a bit of resurgence for the Trojans.  Steve Sarkesian has that offense humming along pretty well.  UCLA's offensive line has been brutal this year and Brett Hundley has been taking a beating.  The beatings will continue!  USC: 35--UCLA: 31
Seeberg:  Well, UCLA has the home-field advantage this year so...ok maybe not.  In any event, both teams are quietly picking up wins lately, albeit not particularly impressive wins as both teams struggled to put away Cal (USC winning by 8 at home, UCLA by 2 on the road) and UCLA slept through their tilt with Colorado.  These teams are pretty equally matched up, and with home field a non-issue, I always revert to my default position- pick the team with the better defense.  In this case?  The Trojans.  USC: 31--UCLA: 23

#13 Arizona Wildcats @ Utah Utes
Draper: Can the freshman Solomon keep it going in a tough road environment?  The Utes have been really good at home when they actually carry the ball all the way into the endzone before dropping it.  The downside is that I don't expect the same environment for a game vs. Arizona (even though they're a top 15 team).  Anu Solomon has had a great freshman season in RichRod's system that will only improve (assuming Mr. Rod is still in Tuscon next year).  I think this is going to come down to the wire with another last second win for the Cardiac Cats. Zona: 34--Utah: 31
Hoying: Can you win in the Pac-12 without throwing the ball? It's not like the Utes had a terrific aerial assault early in the season, but since the loss of top receiver Dres Anderson, they've really dropped off, falling in 2 of their last 3 games (and winning the third in double overtime). Arizona's Anu Solomon is more of what you'd expect from a west coast offense, leading one of the nation's top 15 pass attacks and easily one of the most exciting, executing incredible comebacks against Cal and Washington and coming a field goal away from stunning USC. This game's not being played against a Los Angeles team, so the Wildcats should be safe, and RichRod should stay in the hunt for his first conference title. Zona: 31--Utah: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know much about these two teams, so I am going to grandstand a bit.  I feel that the east coast, and the country as a whole, would appreciate the Pac-12 if the games didn't start after the 8:00 games ended.  I like college football and all, but between life and sleep, I can devote a maximum of around 6-10 hours on Saturdays to football.  That means the really late games are off the table for my viewing pleasure.  Start some games before 8:00 and I will gladly watch. Oh, Zona wins.  Zona: 42--Utah: 35
Seeberg:  From the surprisingly-decent-second-tier-conference-matchup file comes this game.  Sadly, the game would have been much more competitive before Utah's one-dimensional offense has cost them two of their last three games.  Arizona is hanging their hat on that head-scratching Oregon win and the Wildcats would have likely struggled in this game against a healthy Utah squad.  A dinged up Ute team, however, means the Wildcats continue their unlikely run to compete for the Pac-12 South.  Zona: 38--Utah: 24

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ #18 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: Let's see...Nebraska is 8-2 with 2 to go.  To reach that non-elusive 9-4 they need 1 win and 2 losses (including the bowl).  All signs point to loss, win, loss...but NO! Bo Pelini gets the troops fired up to defend the home turf against David Cobb.  This is a pride game.  The 'Blackshirts' were embarrassed by a guy named Malvin last week.  Cobb is a great runner, but I don't see the Huskers falling flat on their faces again in their last home game.  Hey Bo, Give. Ameer. the. rock.  Over and over.  Cobb will go for 130 and 2 TDs, but Ameer will hit 200 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs. Minn: 27--Neb: 31
Hoying: Boy, is this game a lot less appealing than it was a week ago. These teams have a ton of wins against a ton of suck and a few losses against some very good teams, but now it's time to see what they'll do during their late-season stretch run. What did we learn from two games in the snow? 1. Minnesota can't move the ball against a good defense, aside from breaking a few good runs. 2. Nebraska doesn't have a good defense, particularly against the run. 3. JT Barrett and Melvin Gordon are really good (sneak preview of a game prediction 2 weeks from now). Since his injury, Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah has been a non-factor, while his Gopher counterpart David Cobb keeps getting stronger. Can a team that doesn't throw the ball beat the Huskers? DUUUUUUHHHHH. Minn: 30--Neb: 27
Schweinfurth: Holy crap did the Blackshirts get exposed my Melvin Gordon last week.  That was a truly abysmal performance against a team that lines up and practically says, "We are running up the middle...stop it if you can."  This week the Huskers face another team that likes to run.  From what I could see last week, David Cobb is the real deal.  You have to wrap that guy up and Nebraska has gotten into this arm tackle thing.  Not a good combination for Nebraska.  Throw in the fact that Ameer Abdullah hasn't looked right since his injury and it all spells out a Gopher win.  Minn: 35--Neb: 21
Seeberg:  Let's be honest- we need Minnesota to win this one to keep our victory over them looking good in the eyes of the football deities that ultimately decide our postseason fate.  Fortunately, they are playing a team that just gave up 57 kajillion yards on the ground (Note:  Statistic is an estimate...likely an underestmation).  Minnesota's O-line may not be quite as good as Wisconsin's, nor their RB, but Cobb is very solid and should have another highly productive day.  Abdullah still hasn't been himself since tweaking his knee, and without him healthy and confident, Nebraska doesn't have enough answers on offense.  Minnesota, at least for a week, not a disgrace.  Minn: 34--Neb: 24

#14 Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Draper: Gordon. Bulldozer.  This one could get ugly...but it won't be as disgusting as last week.  Iowa is at home which will help keep it a bit closer.  I expect Gordon to get his, but everyone will be shocked that he doesn't explode.  The Hawkeyes will completely overload the box with all 11 guys...and still give up over 100--but not 400.  I have a weird feeling that this will be closer than the experts think, but not that close all the same.  The Badgers have too much to play for.  Wisc: 31--Iowa: 17
Hoying: Minnesota ran for 291 yards against Iowa. Uh oh. Wis: 45--Iowa: 17
Schweinfurth: See Hoying's stat and add in that Wisconsin ran for 581 against Nebraska.  Yea, uh oh indeed.  Gordon could go for 300+ again.  Wis: 49--Iowa: 14
Seeberg:  The only real question here is how well Melvin Gordon backs up his historic performance last week.  Iowa's enormous collapse against Minnesota two weeks ago, losing by a whopping 37, is unlikely to happen again.  Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, Wisconsin is a lot better than them, mistakes or not.  Gordon needs another 150+, 2 TD+ game to push Mariota off his Heisman pedestal, and he will likely get it at the expense of a porous Hawkeye run D.  Wis: 38--Iowa: 20

Indiana Hoosiers @ #7 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Telvin Coleman is having one of the best years for a running back that no one has heard about.  He went for 300+ last week...and no one cares.  JT and company return to the friendly confines to the acclaim of Buckeye Nation.  I have a feeling this will be very similar to the recent home B1G games in which the Bucks jump out to an early lead, take the game in hand, and sit back and take a nap (which will be disappointing).  Bosa and the front seven need to treat this as an important learning experience to practice for Gordon.  They need to step up and contain Coleman.  IU is on their 15th string QB so just focus on stopping the run.  That should be the goal of the game along with cleaning up the tackling.  Hold Coleman under 100 and I'll be thrilled.  You're either getting better, or you're getting worse.  OSU: 52--IU: 24
Hoying: The Hoosiers are quickly running out of chances to win a conference game, but the news isn't all bad. Sure, they visit one of the hottest teams in the nation this week, but next week they get Purdue! At home! And even if the Hoosiers' dreams don't come true against the B1G's version of Make a Wish, they'll still have that SEC East title to fall back on. Indiana is as good as running the ball as anyone in the country, unless your goal is to make sure the ball goes across the goal line at some point. And they're horrible at everything else. Ohio State is pretty good at everything except tackling running backs and preventing the ghost of Ray Small from possessing their punt returners. Bucks win big and start their streak as the only team to win the B1G East. Ind: 20--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth:  A little #narrative to start off: Indiana beat the SEC East leader.  The Buckeyes have been flat rolling inferior teams (and teams that were "better" than them) since the Va Tech game.  Last week's score was no indication of how dominant the Buckeyes were.  The only concerning thing to me is the defense on quick turnarounds (after turnovers especially).  No matter where they start on the field after a Buckeye turnover, it seems like the other team always gets points.  This is a trend that really needs to stop.  The defense has played very well for the most part but the Bullets need to stop the run.  This will be a good practice for the Buckeyes ahead of TTUN and, most likely, Wisconsin.  Time to shore up the run D and keep that offense sharp.  Barrett keeps putting up his video game numbers as well.  This is a style point game. Ind: 13--OSU: 52
Seeberg:  Ah yes, it's our favorite homecoming team come to town six weeks late.  The Hoosiers actually boast a legitimate NFL-caliber running back in Tevin Coleman, and the Silver Bullets have struggled with the power run game in consecutive weeks.  Thankfully, IU is on their 2nd-string practice squad QB at this point and Coleman is their only competent threat on offense.  The turnovers need to be cleaned up, but even if we lose the ball multiple times again it's just not going to matter.  Onto TTUN.  IND: 17--OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: All of the other upsets games are super weak.  Mizzou over Tenn is about as lame
Hoying: North Carolina over Duke
Schweinfurth: Maryland over Michigan 
Seeberg:  Louisville over Notre Dame 

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Week 9 - The Return of Boring

Standings
1) Draper               25-12    (4-4 upset)
1) Seeberg              25-12    (1-7 upset)
3) Hoying               24-13    (3-5 upset)
4) Schweinfurth     22-15    (3-5 upset)

There's no big, sexy game on this week's slate, but there are a few worthy distractions to keep you occupied until the white-out at 8 P.M. (7 Central) Saturday night.

Ole Miss Rebels @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: For some reason, I'm thinking this might actually be a game.  LSU has looked terrible most of the year, but I feel Les pulls one out of this butt every year.  I don't think he'll have quite enough to stop Dr. Bo and Mr. Nkemdiche.  Don't get me wrong, Ole Miss is the superior team, but a night game Death Valley gives me a little pause.  Not enough to pull the trigger, but the booger eater makes it close.  Ole Miss: 31--LSU: 28
Hoying: After their coming-out party against the Tide (THE DYNASTY IS NOT OVER) and their follow up win against some overrated Lone Star team, the Rebels suffered a bit of a letdown against SEC Least foe Tennessee...for about 10 minutes. Even after their slow start, Ole Miss still managed to paste the Volunteers, surging past struggling Stanford to claim the title of nation's top defense. What does this mean for LSU? The Tigers posted all of 7 points against Auburn and were sitting on 16 points against Mississippi State until the Bulldogs' bizarre 4th-quarter collapse. LSU can't decide which terrible quarterback to play on any given down (oh where have you gone, Zach WarrenBurger), and good luck trying to run on this Rebel front. Ole Miss completes the Mississippi sweep in Death Valley. Ole Miss: 30--LSU: 17
Schweinfurth: LSU has not looked great this year (It took an injury to one of the nation's rushing leaders to beat Wisconsin among other games).  This team just does not have the snarl and talent it did just a few short years ago.  Ole Miss is riding on a big wave of momentum and has looked good so far.  As long as  horrendous Bo doesn't show up, Ole Miss wins fairly easy. Ole Miss: 35--LSU: 14
Seeberg:  It's remarkable to think just how, at least for this season, the fortunes of these two teams have flip-flopped.  LSU is a huge second-half comeback against Wiscy away from being a 3-loss team while Ole Miss has only had one serious threat all season.  Ole Miss gives up barely 10 points a game, and LSU struggles on the offensive side of the ball, which is clearly a recipe for disaster along the same lines of the OSU-PSU game (see below).  LSU feeds off the night crowd energy early, but can't score enough to stay in it much past halftime.  Ole Miss: 27--LSU: 10

USC Trojans @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Utes have quietly put together a nice little season, albeit living on the edge.  Can they spring the upset at home? Would it be an upset with the sporadic play of the Trojans?  I believe the Trojans are the better team but still in the process of 'finding themselves'.  Utah knows who they are and they're a mid-level football team.  SC opened the floodgates last week letting Kessler sling the ball for a record 7 TDs, but Utah is certainly better than the hapless Buffs.  The road game makes USC a little shaky, but they have the better talent and will pull off the win by a TD--assuming they can stop the Hail Mary this time.  USC: 38--Utah: 31
Hoying: Is USC finally back? Seems like a silly question to ask after a bizarre loss to Boston College and terrible Hail Mary defense against Arizona State, but when you think about the Trojan dynasty from the early 2000's, what comes to mind? Elite QB play, embodied by Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez. After a 7 passing TD display against Colorado, Cody Kessler is angling for inclusion on this list (don't laugh, how many of you remember Carson Palmer's junior season?). More questionable is whether a middling USC defense can handle a great Utah rushing attack led by RB Devontae Booker. After all, BC only ran for about 450 YARDS against the Trojan front. In the end, I think Kessler will do enough to make up for what his front seven lacks. Fight on. USC: 31--Utah: 27
Schweinfurth: I really like what Steve Sarkisian has done at USC already.  That offense is tough to stop when they play ahead of the chains and go no-huddle. The defense isn't a slouch either.  They seem to bring guys from every angle and do a very good job confusing QBs.  While Utah will be able to move the ball on the ground, I really think that Sark's offense will be the difference in this game. USC: 24--Utah: 20
Seeberg:  Utah actually has the best win of the two teams, a narrow victory at then-top-10 UCLA.  Unfortunately, they followed with a near-disaster against Oregon State, escaping in double OT.  USC struggles to stop the run- which is what Utah does well- but can score a lot to compensate, and it's difficult to picture the Utes shutting down USC's wide receiving corps.  I think USC makes just enough fixes on D to go on the road and get a suddenly critical conference win.  USC: 35--Utah: 28

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: I thought OSU was a pretty good team but the faceplant last week didn't help.  WVU is really knocking it up a notch with Clint Trickett (former Nole) flourishing under Larry Fine's (get it? Holgerson looks like Larry from the Stooges! I know this is a sad state of affairs that I need to explain this...) offensive scheme.  The Pokes are REALLY tough to beat in Stillwater, but while their speed may match WVU, their execution does not.  Stickin' with the Mountaineers begrudgingly as I love the Pokes. Expect fireworks. WVU: 41--OSU: 38
Hoying: How about that great Cowboy win against...erm...well...how about their game last wee...uh...they sure played FSU tough a couple months ago, didn't they? Okie State doesn't really do anything well, except post unimpressive victories against total cream puffs. In contrast, West Virginia QB Clint Trickett leads arguably the best pass attack outside of Pullman, Washington, tossing for over 300 yards in each game so far this season. Bafflingly, the Mountaineers also violated school tradition by playing actual defense against a blazing Baylor attack last weekend. This is a clear mismatch, no matter what Vegas tells you.  They have the Pokes favored, but it's garbage, and the oddsmaker who let it come out is garbage! WVU: 34--OSU: 27
Schweinfurth: I don't know if there is a more surprising team to me than West Virginia.  I was impressed by WVU's losses this year if only because they were supposed to get trounced in both. It seems as though Dana Hogerson does know how to coach a defense.  That is a dangerous combo with the offense the Mountaineers roll out there.  Oklahoma State runs a fairly similar offense to Baylor and we all know how that turned out last week.  Mountaineers win and keep proving they are no longer a one trick pony. WVU: 45--OSU: 24
Seeberg:  This game is likely to be close as West Virginia has an annoying habit of playing to the level of their competition, for better or worse (close loss to Bama, close win against Maryland, for instance).  Oklahoma State's usually vaunted offense was completely shut down by a good TCU squad, which may have provided some blueprints for other teams.  WVU isn't as talented on D as TCU- except they gave up a whopping 34 points fewer to Baylor.  The Mountaineers make it closer than they should, but get out of  Stillwater with a win.  WVU: 38--OSU: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: PSU looked...ok...early on, but they have looked like they're steadily getting worse....while the Bucks have improved every week.  Happy Valley is always rocking at night, but the team is certainly not like the PSU teams of old.  Hackenburg is a pretty boy QB, but I haven't seen the jaw-dropping talent to which people continue to refer. After their easy win against Rutgers (I mean, who could have picked Rutgers over PSU....what a dumb pick...), they've taken a dive against NW AT HOME!! and vs. a terrible Michigan team.  The Bucks are on such a high, I just see more of the same.  JT continues to carve up opponents, and, while he'll struggle early getting his bearings on the road in a tough environment, he'll recenter and take care of business.  Look for a BIG day from the defensive line.  Bucks roll. OSU: 42--PSU: 24
Hoying: Ah, Penn State, the Vanderbilt of the B1G East, minus the academics. After a 4-0 start, including a shocking stun of Rutgers in Piscataway, the Nittany Lions have lost to two BAD teams, including a homecoming blowout loss to Northwestern. With no time to throw the ball, Christian Pickenberg has become a total non-factor, and his outlook isn't likely to improve with the new and improved Silver Bullet D coming to Happy Valley. Penn State still has a nominally impressive defense, certainly better than any the Buckeyes have seen since Virginia Tech, but Barrett isn't showing any signs of slowing. My concern: after another 4 TD and 350 yard performance on national TV vaults JT into the Heisman discussion, should Braxton consider transferring? OSU: 45--PSU: 13
Schweinfurth: Can anyone point to an offensive line that acts like a sieve more than Penn State?  If Michigan can set up camp in the Lions backfield, what is Joey Bosa going to do to Hackenberg?  Think about that.  Bosa, Bennett, Washington and company are going to have some fun (are you not entertained!?!) this week.  The only concern I have is the OSU offensive line.  They have looked impressive since the Va Tech game but that has also been inferior competition.  While Penn State does have a statistically good defense, again, it's been against inferior competition.  What does that all mean?  Well, Penn State is going to come out in a Bear/Double Eagle front (duh) and J.T. is going to pick it apart.  This game is gonna get ugly.  I really hope they have a "Hackenberg got crushed" counter this week because he will get rocked over and over and over and over... Oh, yea, I think the 50+ streak ends this week but J.T. FOR HEISMAN!!!! OSU: 48--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  Oh fantastic, another night game in not-so-Happy Valley so the locals have 12 hours to enjoy their favorite adult beverages before filing into Beaver Stadium.  Penn State does boast a very respectable D that has kept them in most games, giving up barely 15 points a game.  Their O, however, is equally unrespectable, scoring just 21 a game.  Even if Hackenberg stays upright (not likely), he doesn't have enough weaponry to cause the Silver Bullets enough troubles.  The raucous crowd and scripted opening plays keep the Lions in it early, but too much Barrett and Co. (let's get Heuerman involved some now that he's healthy please!) makes it another solid win.  OSU: 38--PSU: 13

Upset Special
Draper: Cal over Oregon
Hoying: Washington over Arizona State
Schweinfurth: South Carolina over Auburn (why not hope for absolute chaos)
Seeberg:  Washington State over Arizona (see what I did there, Hoying?)

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Week 2 - B1G Chances for Redemption

Standings
1) Schweinfurth     3-1    (1-0 upset)
1) Draper                3-1    (1-0 upset---WEAK)
1) Hoying               3-1    (0-1 upset)

1) Seeberg              3-1    (0-1 upset- I should get .5 for mine, FCS team loses by 1 b/c of miraculous 2 TD comeback?? C'MON MAN!)

The B1G actually had a pretty decent week 1, going 12-2 with Ohio State, Penn State, and Rutgers scoring decent road wins, and no team falling flat on its face against a garbage opponent. However, all anyone will remember is Wisconsin's 2nd-half collapse against LSU, so it's up to the conference to notch a win against a top-level opponent to save face. Fortunately, three such opportunities present themselves in week 2.

Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: This is a litmus test for both teams.  Did MSU take a step back from the magical 2013? Is Oregon the juggernaut on offense they always claim to be?  I'm expecting a pretty good game here in which the Spartans lay it all on the line...but fall just short in Autzen.  The losses in MSU's secondary are just too much when going up against Marcus Mariota.  I know he's not an exceptional passer, but with all the weapons on the ground, that pulls bodies out of pass protection.  MSU looks good, but Oregon is no Jacksonville State (and MSU is no South Dakota).  MSU: 24--Ore: 27
Hoying: Welcome to Part II of the B1G vs. Pac-12 Challenge. After B1G linchpin Rutgers dispatched Washington State last week, the stakes skyrocket in this showdown of presumptive conference favorites. 
Neither team will be out of the playoff hunt after a loss, but the loser will have to take care not to drop a conference game as well. Oregon is plenty flashy as always, rolling up 62 points against South Dakota, but the Ducks usually struggle against solid-tackling, defensive-minded squads (see 2011 LSU, 2010 Auburn, 2009 Ohio State and Boise State). MSU QB Connor Cook will have to continue his upward trend, but the Spartans should be bursting with confidence after their victory over last year's Pac-12 champ, Stanford, in the Rose Bowl. Remember, the Spartans need this win so that it's even more embarrassing when they lose to Indiana or Wyoming or whoever. MSU: 31--Ore: 27
Schweinfurth: Boy does the B1G need some love after Wisconsin choked (and that is putting it kindly).  Everyone is talking about Michigan State's defense, and for good measure.  They held Braxton and El Guapo in check for most of the B1G Championship Game and looked impressive doing it.  Oregon runs a similar type of spread; run to set up the pass, short passing game, and a mobile and explosive QB.  The difference here is that Mariota is a better passer than Miller.  MSU challenged Braxton to throw across the middle of the field and he couldn't do it.  Mariota can.  This will likely be the Spartans' gameplan against a fast spread team like the Ducks.  Combine that with the loss of Dennard and you have one MSU loss.  Sorry Sparty, I just can't buy in.  Prove me wrong.  MSU: 24--Ore: 35
Seeberg:  Time to put on the big boy pants and see who's who.  MSU's offense is likely to be much improved, though we learned next to nothing about them against the South Carolina Jacksonville State Gamecocks (seriously?  There are TWO Gamecock mascots?  Still not as bad as a community college in Arizona, the Scottsdale Community College Fighting Artichokes- I kid you not).  Likewise, we learned nothing about Oregon's supposedly vaunted offense against the likes of South Dakota.  I get the sense that MSU cannot let Oregon get rolling early or it could get ugly, much like Seabiscuit retraining to break first in his match race against War Admiral (look it up).  Bottom line?  The two strongest units on the field will be Oregon's O and MSU's D, and sadly I trust Oregon's O a bit more.  Let the B1G bashing commence.  MSU: 20--Ore: 28

Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Does the winner of this game get the ever present 'They're back!' label?  Seems to be a recurring tradition between these two historical juggernauts that just haven't lived up to consistent expectations in the recent past.  The Irish are sporting their revamped Everett Gholston (apparently, he's smart now!), but have serious questions from the academic issues that hit near the end of the offseason.  Michigan is on cloud nine after evening their record with the powerhouse Mountaineers, and I think they keep it going.  Gardner and Devin Funyons will be too much for the Domers to contain on offense.  They're BACK! (until next week) UM: 31--ND: 24
Hoying: Say it ain't so! Notre Dame's fifth most important rivalry is about to go on hiatus for the fifth time. Both of these historically superlative but contemporarily mediocre programs are missing major offensive performers from last season, the Wolverines losing RB Fitz Toussaint and the Irish losing QB Tommy Rees. Then again, neither player was actually any good, so don't expect these units to break stride from where they ended last year. Michigan has been in a total nosedive since firing Lloyd Carr 7 years ago, but since it's still September, a win is within the realm of possibility. Notre Dame is still missing a few players for being too dumb to play college football, but there's hope: QB Everett Golson has finally found his way back onto campus after a similar problem last season. Too bad he won't do well enough to overcome the Gardner & Co. sporadic juggernaut. UM: 38--ND: 24

Schweinfurth: This is a rivalry game that I am sad to see get put off by conference politics.  And by sad I mean I just like to watch both teams bumble all over the field.  Yes, Everett Golson is back.  Yes, Devin Gardner is back.  To acknowledge that this game will blow anyone's doors off would insinuate that both QBs were competent in the first place.  I really don't care who wins this game, but I think scUM's defense is better, but not by much.  This game will be close as always.  UM: 24--ND: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the annual "can they just play to a hideously contested 3-3 tie because I despise both teams?" game.  Both dispatched lousy opponents with ease last week, but TTUN's offense was surprisingly, well, surprising, in that the play-calling was marginally less predictable than usual.  Assuming there are more wrinkles reserved for their first real game, I expect UM to meet little resistance offensively en route to a double-digit win, thereby gratefully removing the perenially overrated Irish from the rankings, silencing the echoes yet again.  UM: 34--ND: 20

USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: I don't know what to think about these Pac 12 foes.  Both teams crushed vastly inferior opponents last week but we really have no clue what to expect in an actual game.  Sark has the SC history with him, but the roster isn't quite like the Leinhart and Bush days.  I think the Trojans are on an upswing, but this is a doozy of a game on the road this early.  Stanford has a nice consistent product that doesn't have the flash, but should come up with the meat of the sandwich to come out with a win.  Blue collar boys slow down the flash...just enough. USC: 24--Stan: 27
Hoying: Now that the Lane Kiffin dumpster fire in Los Angeles has been extinguished, the Trojans are dreaming of regaining their Pac-12 supremacy status. Unfortunately, the conference isn't the one-team laugher it was back in the 2000's, and the Cardinal aren't keen to see their Rose Bowl streak ended at 2. Both teams feature great quarterbacks and untested running backs, most notably Stanford sophomore RB Barry Sanders, Jr. I'm tempted to give Stanford a slight edge due to the home field advantage, but that would require some fans to actually show up. This one will come down to whether the Cardinal play "Stanford football." I'm guessing...no. USC: 28--Stan: 27
Schweinfurth:  I really don't know much about these teams, and honestly, haven't paid much attention other than the RB drama at SC.  USC is still breaking in a new offense and that Stanford D is usually pretty nasty.  Stanford with a senior QB at home? Yup, the Cardinal move on.  USC: 17--Stan: 28

Seeberg:  I...I just don't know.  This is a flip of the coin for me.  It's strength on strength similar to MSU's D against Oregon's offense (USC O vs. Stanford D).  I would like to think the score will stay in the 20s and Stanford has the advantage.  Then again, USC proved it can win a low scoring game against the Cardinal, eking out a 20-17 win just last year.  Stanford appears a bit less 1-dimensional this year however, trusting their senior QB to throw to people other than the tight ends.  They'll need a play or two from the wideouts, and they'll get just enough to get some payback on the Trojans.  Dance ugly tree, dance.  USC: 20--Stan: 24

Virginia Tech Hokies @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Bucks look a little iffy out of the gate but settled down quickly.  I really like what I saw out of Barrett when the kid gloves were removed, but the O-Line is a concern.  With Bud Foster's defense bringing the lunch pail, the Bucks need to get to work. I actually think this game sets up nicely for a strong Buckeye win.  VT is a very traditional football team and the Bucks are designed to take on a traditional football team.  Add in the lights in the Shoe, and it's a recipe for a coming out party.  Dontre takes one to the house and the defense steps up their game.  Bucks roll.  VT: 17--OSU: 38
Hoying: I'm not sure what to make of this Virginia Tech team. Like the Buckeyes, they're breaking in new starters at QB and RB. However, the Bucks are a bit more battle-tested after taking Navy's best shot in Baltimore. Were this a road game, I'd be extremely nervous, but Barrett and (insert Buckeye RB here) should get a nice boost from the home atmosphere. This game should give us some opportunities to finally see if the Buckeye D has made any strides in the offseason (or in the last week). Expect some mistakes on both sides of the ball, but Ohio State should squeak out a close win and move on to next week's breather against Kent State. VT: 24--OSU: 27 (OT)
Schweinfurth: I am sooooooo glad to be done with Navy.  I respect our troops, but as Draper likes to say, "Why do you ever schedule a service academy?!"  We really didn't learn much about the Bucks revamped defense, and that may be a good thing.  VaTech has no film to go on with regards to the Silver Bullets and that is a big advantage.  What concerns me is that offensive line.  They now have one game under their belt.  The talent is there, the communication just needs to be fixed and this unit will start providing better protection.  I think J.T. has earned the right to throw down field a bit more.  Urban and Herman need to try and take the top of that defense off if they want to run the ball against a very well coached Bud Foster defense.  I also think we see more Curtis Samuel, that dude is gonna be a good one.  I can really see this game playing out much like the Navy game; close going into the 4th quarter and then the talent gap shows up.  VT: 20--OSU: 35

Seeberg:  This game is likely the Bucks' biggest challenge until a late October trip to Happy Valley.  It is that fact that buoys my middling confidence in the Buckeyes.  D-line was gashed too often for a unit that was supposed to be our strength on that side of the ball, but some second-half adjustments helped.  Barrett looked pretty impressive, showing nice touch on many throws.  When pressured, however, he took too many sacks that seemed preventable, and of course the one horrible INT near the goal line was painfully foreseeable.  Freshman mistakes will happen, but you can be sure VT will be bringing the heat against that unproven line.  However, that unproven line may have been lackluster in the pass game, but it was opening some pretty consistent holes in the run game, and a heavy dose of Elliot, Wilson and Co. is in order.  The Bucks will use the crowd, get up early, and VT is not much more built to come from behind than Navy was.  VT: 16--OSU: 27  

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa State over Kansas State
Hoying: San Diego State over North Carolina

Schweinfurth: Western Kentucky over Illinois
Seeberg:  Middle Tennessee over Minnesota

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Week 14--Rivalry Week

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    40-18    (4-9 upset)
2) Hoying               39-19   (1-10 upset)
3) Draper                38-20     (3-10 upset)

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Huge implications in the Iron Bowl. I hear every talking about the first top 5 matchup in this 'storied' rivalry...while surprising, this doesn't do wonders for the argument of 'best' rivalry.  Give Auburn credit for a phenomenal turnaround under Gus Malzahn, but they have one win of note (TAMU).  The miracle at Jordan-Hare crushed my pick chances, but reinforces my belief in a strong Bama win.  Saban's squad seems to shine in the spotlight games and limp through the layups.  YJ Yeldon will run all over the Tiger defense and the Tide will pressure Nick Marshall into enough mistakes to keep the train rolling.  Cam Newton ain't walkin through that door.  Sorry Bucks.  Bama: 27--AU: 13
Hoying: Earn your title, Tide. The debate isn't settled as to whether Ohio State or Florida State has the tougher overall path to 13-0 this season, but neither faces the murderer's row Alabama has to deal with this week and (possibly) the next. Back in September, we picked Auburn-LSU as an afterthought, the token fourth game. None of us could have foreseen that tilt providing Auburn's only loss to date. What a difference not having Gene Chizik makes. The Auburn offense has roared to life behind dual-threat QB Nick Marshall, but he's developed as more of a runner than a passer as the season has progressed. The Tide defense has been slowly choking opponents all season long, only cracking against...the other dual-threat QB they faced. Nick Marshall isn't Johnny Manziel, but with the friendly Jordan-Hare crowd behind him, he'll do just enough to pull off the upset. Bama: 27--AU: 28
Schweinfurth: It's weird but the numbers are actually against Alabama winning this game.  If I remember correctly, Nick Saban has never beaten a 10 win Auburn team.  Well coming into this game, Auburn is 10-1.  Alabama has problems with mobile quarterbacks and Auburn seems to have found Cam Newton lite in Nick Marshall.  I know all of this is stacked against 'Bama and my heart says that Auburn will do Ohio State (and the rest of the college football world) a favor and roll the Tide.  My brain says Bama is better.  Bama: 24--AU: 21
Seeberg:   Disclaimer:  I want Auburn to win this game with every fiber of my being.  Florida State’s schedule is too soft the rest of the way, so an Alabama slip is virtually OSU’s only chance to get into the BCS title game.  That aside, this is not a good match-up for Auburn.  Auburn runs the ball, ‘Bama stops the run; classic strength against strength.  ‘Bama’s weaker on pass D, but not tip-the-ball-straight-to-a-WR-on-4th-and-18 weak.  If Auburn can force an early turnover or two and get a lead, they may be able to shorten the game and keep it interesting.  In the end, however, ‘Bama will score touchdowns and limit Auburn to a couple of field goals, allowing the Tide to, regrettably, pull away late.  Bama: 35--AU: 20

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Can the Tigers keep the streak of vanquishing SEC foes going?  Clemson has had 2 games of note--squeaking out a win against a fully-healthy UGA and getting run off the field vs. the Noles.  The Gamecocks haven't lived up to expectations but that will happen when your best player can easily be taken out of the game via double-team/scheme.  Connor Shaw vs. Tajh Boyd...who fails less.  I don't think the Cocks have enough on offense to keep up.  I'm hoping that Clemson keeps it going with standout wide receiver Sammy Watkins because it hurts the SEC (and ESPN narrative) and helps the Noles.  Huge game in an underrated rivalry for Dabo and the Tigers.  Clem: 38--SoCar: 24
Hoying: Is there a more overrated team in the country than Clemson? The opening win over Georgia was nice, although it hasn't matured well. Other than that, the schedule has left something to be desired. Nothing like a win over Missouri over UCF stands out on Clemson's schedule. South Carolina's been winning ugly, but they've been winning. Now that Connor Shaw is back behind center for Cocky, the Tigers will have more of a problem stopping a balanced South Carolina attack. Tajh will be terrific, but Clemson will fall short. Clem: 27--SoCar: 31
Schweinfurth: South Carolina has slowly creeped up this rankings after a sluggish start to the season.  Clemson has held on to a sure BCS berth behind Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  I honestly believe that the SEC is severely over valued this year (especially the east).  With that said, I expect a big day out of Boyd and more useless talk about Jadavion Clowney.  Clem: 45--SoCar: 35
Seeberg:  It’s official, the world is ending:  The cheapest Clemson/South Carolina tickets are going for more than twice as much as the cheapest OSU/TTUN tickets on a ticket brokerage site.  Find your bomb shelters now.  Clemson has quietly snuck back near the top five, primarily because they’ve been beating a lot of nobodies since getting waxed by FSU.  Also amazingly, South Carolina’s vaunted defense is actually allowing more points per game than OSU.  “But the SEC is SO tough they can’t help it!”- every SEC fan.  Yeah, that 28-spot that SEC-bottom feeder Kentucky scored on them really makes me trust the Gamecock defense.  If UK can score 28 at South Carolina, Clemson will score more, and it will be enough to win.  Clem: 41--SoCar: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Johnny Football...my how the mighty has fallen.  What a face plant on Saturday in a huge moment. Mizzou has it on the table for this Big 12...er...SEC showdown.  The Tigers are a team that simply takes care of their business without fanfare.  The Aggies will score with a return of Johnny Manziel 'greatness' but the A&M defense is a total sieve.  Maty Mauk/James Franklin (whoever is the starter) will keep step for step with TAMU.  The difference is the Tiger defense which will get one stop and take the shootout on the way to the SEC Championship.  TAMU: 38--Mizzou: 41
Hoying: If not for James Franklin's injury against Georgia, this game may have decided the all-SEC QB in a stacked conference. Thankfully, Franklin and Manziel will still get the chance to go head-to-head, but the game is going to suuuuuuck. Remember LSU's dismantling of A&M a week ago? Use that as a starting point, add a better opposing quarterback and a much better defense, and you get a Missouri beatdown. Don't expect the Tigers to blink at home with an SEC East title within their grasp. TAMU: 17--Mizzou: 48
Schweinfurth: My goodness did the Aggies look horrible last week.  Les Miles must keep some sort of Johnny Football kryptonite in his pocket for those games. James Franklin kept the Tigers chugging on all cylinders last week and that offense has been a nightmare for the mighty SEC defenses.  I definitely expect this game to devolve into an old fashioned Big 12 shootout.  TAMU: 38--Mizzou: 42
Seeberg:  At the start of the season, a lot of people probably assumed this game would have SEC West title implications.  SEC East?  Not so much.  James Franklin is back for Mizzou (taking over for Kenton-bred backup Maty Mauk) and that’s bad news for an A&M defense that gives up over 30 a game.  Incidentally, does anyone remember that A&M and Mizzou joined the conference just two years ago and everybody thought they would be cannon fodder?  Perhaps the SEC isn’t the gauntlet we all perceive it to be.  In any event, onto the title game for Mizzou.  TAMU: 27--Mizzou: 42

UCLA Bruins @ USC Trojans
Draper: This one is for Coach O.  A win here would make it really hard to let him go.  The Trojans have been playing really good football lately and no one is noticing.  Beating Stanford (but were they playing Stanford football?) was huge when the Cardinal had everything on the line.  The Bruins, on the other hand, have limped down the stretch.  I'll go with the hot hand and the Trojans re-institute the football monopoly in LA.  UCLA: 20--USC: 24
Hoying: Don't call it a comeback, but USC has recovered nicely from the cancer that plagued their program for three and a half seasons. The Trojans are on a roll, winners of their last 5, which included a nice home win over a very good Stanford team. UCLA is no slouch, either, but they haven't impressed down the stretch, scraping by Arizona and Washington and falling to Arizona State. This game will come down to which quarterback can have success. Both Brett Hundley and Cody Kessler are superb slingers, but Hundley has to face a tough Trojan D, while Kessler will have a little more room for error. Fight on. UCLA: 20--USC: 27
Schweinfurth: I really know nothing about these two teams other than Lane Kiffin was a terrible coach and Ogeron has that team going good again.  Other than Keith Price, I know nothing about UCLA.  USC is at home? Good enough for me.  UCLA: 17--USC: 21
Seeberg: This is likely Ed Orgeron’s last game as USC’s head coach, which is a shame, given how well he has revived the life-support squad he inherited from Lane Kiffin.  He seems to have galvanized a pretty talented team, and they should send him out with a win against their in-city rivals.  The Bruins go as Brett Hundley goes, and USC’s defense will give him fits.  UCLA: 16--USC: 27

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: This is a ranked matchup but.... Notre Dame has been taking care of business lately, but Stanford was recently given a shot in the arm thanks to the choke job by the Ducks.  This isn't a conference game, but now that they have the Rose Bowl back on the horizon, I expect a focused team on the Farm vs. a historical contender.  The Cardinal defense should make Tommy Rees's life a living hell while the running game churns up a solid win over a ranked team.  If they play 'Stanford football', do they jump OSU? ND: 13--Stan: 31
Hoying: Let's play the road and home game. Notre Dame on the road: 2-2, beating terrible terrible Purdue and Air Force, and losing at bleh Michigan and bleeeeh Pitt. Stanford at home: 6-0, beating Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, and Oregon. Uh-oh. ND: 17--Stan: 27
Schweinfurth: Again, two teams I have paid next to no attention to.  Stanford's better, I do know that much.  ND: 10--Stan: 19
Seeberg:  #25 Notre Dame at #8 Stan…wait, Notre Dame is ranked again?  Granted, they do have a W over Michigan State and another one over Arizona State, but this team is just not that good.  Stanford is likely pretty angry after USC took away their PAC-12 (it’s still difficult to refrain from calling it the PAC-10) title hopes, as well as their slim hopes to squeeze into the national championship.  Further, the Cardinal does not want a repeat of last year’s OT loss which is why this game will not be nearly close enough for that to be an issue for the dancing tree.  Stan: 31--ND: 10

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: Ah....The Game is here.  Tough to get excited with the struggles in Ann Arbor, but there will be no lack of motivation.  Urban has the boys locked onto TSUN with laser focus.  Michigan is in a tailspin, but will certainly put up a fight...it won't be enough.  Gardner will be on the ground courtesy of Bosa, Spence, and Co. while Shazier cleans up.  The OSU secondary will give up too much (as we've come to expect), but the offense should have a field day.  Expect 300+ on the ground as the passing game is being left by the wayside.  Herman will try to get Braxton going with the passing game, but it won't work until he starts utilizing some quick slants and screens.  The deep ball is there but Braxton has been hesitant to throw vertically--preferring to trust his feet.  Hopefully, he can develop the confidence over the next 3 games/year.  Bucks roll. OSU: 51--TSUN: 31
Hoying: There's always a quickening of the heart when I see the Scarlet and Gray take the field against the Maize and Blue. Unfortunately, that won't happen this year (stupid all-white uniforms) but The Game is a HUGE deal nonetheless. No matter how hapless the Wolverines are, this is always the most important game of the season. Fortunately, the Buckeyes seem to get this, and there's no chance of a look-ahead to that other northern team. As Tony Gerdeman at TheOzone pointed out, the team that wins the rushing battle has won the last 12 iterations of the rivalry. Does anyone see Devin Gardner, Derrick Green, and Fitzgerald Toussaint outperforming Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, and Dontre Wilson? Really? OSU: 45--TSUN: 13
Schweinfurth: We have finally arrived at The Game.  For some reason I have been having flashbacks to the 90's.  Visions of Desmond's Heisman pose and Tim Biakabatuka have been haunting my dreams all week.  So much failure, that decade.  Then I look at the sideline and see Urban Meyer, who ownes (pwns?) in rivalry games.  The man takes these games personally and it shows in the way his teams play.  It also helps that the Silver Bullets' defensive line is full of studs versus an offensive line that operates as a sieve.  In a way I feel for Gardner (but not really).  At least he will have some friends in the backfield.  And by friends I mean Noah Spence and Joey Bosa charging with bad intentions.  On offense Ohio State has this Braxton Miller guy along with the wrecking ball that is El Guapo.  Ohio State hasn't won by more than 11 points at that POS stadium since 1962.  Throw that one out the window and bring on the Spartans!!!  
OSU: 60--TSUN: 14 (with negative rushing yards)
Seeberg:  OK OSU fans, if you were born after about 1991, you may not understand this, but Buckeye faithful tend to get nervous around this time of year, particularly when we have the objectively superior team.  Our dominant 90s squads routinely underperformed against TSUN, and it ultimately got Cooper fired.  In a 4-year span we had a Heisman winner in Eddie George and TWO first overall draft picks in Big Daddy Dan Wilkinson and Orlando Pace.  In that span from 1993-96, OSU went just 1-3 against TSUN.  Tressel changed all of that with his stellar 9-1 record; that one blemish?  Ten years ago, at the big house, and I was in attendance.  I am going up to Ann Arbor for the second time ever this weekend, so I sincerely hope it wasn’t my fault a decade ago.  As for the game itself?  A LOT of things have to go wrong for Ohio State to lose (turnovers, injuries, a cameo by Batman at QB for TSUN).  A few of them will go wrong, but not enough of them to stop the Buckeye train.  Onto MSU unblemished.  OSU: 38--TSUN: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Pittsburgh over Miami (FL)
Hoying: Washington State over Washington
Schweinfurth: Oregon State over Oregon
Seeberg:  Arizona over Arizona State
(Heads up: Carolina is favored over Duke)