Friday, September 21, 2018

Week 4: Waiting for Bosa

Standings:
1.) Draper 7-5 (1-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 7-5 (0-3 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 6-6 (2-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 6-6 (1-2 upset) (but UNT over Arkansas....really?)

While the Bucks earned a major victory last week over the Frogs that are Horned, they took a major blow with the loss of their best defensive player for an indeterminate period of time.  Let's hope that he gets back soon.  In the meantime, let's check out the week 4 slate! Of wait...week 4 slate is usually garbage....

#7 Stanford Cardinal @ # 20 Oregon Ducks
Draper: Does anybody really know anything about these teams? Does anybody really care? Chicago asked the question, but we can answer it: No.  I feel like the Pac12 will work its way through the season in predictable fashion.  Washington loses a key nonconference game early and drops a head-scratcher but wins the conference. Stanford is boringly consistent all year, but loses to Washington and is out of it (although they will scream that they are 'deserving').  Oregon gets lots of hype but fails on the big stage.  Welcome to point 3.  Stanford: 20 -- Oregon: 17
Hoying: At first glance, this looks like another Stanford defense vs. Oregon offense showdown. Or at least it did before Oregon only put up 35 against San Jose State in a surprisingly tough outing for Duck QB Justin Herbert. Stanford's defense is for real, though; I watched about a quarter of their strangling of USC and fell into a coma so deep I almost missed Mass the next morning. That should probably be enough to get the job done here, because I don't think the Pacific Northwest's revolving door of coaches quite has their act together yet this year. Stan: 24 -- Oregon: 13
Schweinfurth: Pac-12 games are on way past my bed time (yes, I feel old saying that). So, believe me when I say that I don't really watch much Pac-12 football. I'm not sold on Oregon being back at an elite level. Stanford just keeps rolling on. I'll take the dancing trees. Stan: 27--Oregon: 20
Seeberg:  As with most of us east of the Mississippi, I'm not entirely sure what to make of this game.  Stanford has looked- eh?- this year.  Actually, Stanford and Notre Dame might be the least impressive undefeated teams ranked 7 and 8 in history.  The golden domers beat Michigan by 7...and Ball State by 8.  Stanford shut down USC, and then USC got spanked by Texas.  You know Texas as the team that was beaten by Maryland- again- in week one, before narrowly slipping by Tulsa the next week.  Regardless, now Stanford has to go on the road to highlighter-jersey U. on Saturday night.  Honestly I'm not sold on either squad, but they aren't keeping Justin Herbert and the Ducks in the single digits, and unless Bryce Love 2018 turns back the clock to Bryce Love 2017 this week, it may not go well for the visitors.  Ducks late.  Stan:  20-- Ore: 27

#22 Texas A&M Aggies @ #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: I see the line on this game is Bama -26 and that's just ridiculous.  Bama has been rolling their opponents early, but A&M is a pretty good team.  They pushed Clemson to the brink and showed they're ready for the big time.  Tua will crash sometime and this seems like as likely a time as any since they've faced no one of note thus far.  I definitely thinking A&M in this one...to cover.  Sadly, this will be another comfortable (boring) Bama throat stomping.  TAMU: 17 -- Bama: 34
Hoying: Bama by a million. That's just going to be my default pick for every Bama game, that we're going to pick every week here on Let's Go Bucks!, because Bama is going to be #1 every week, and every week they're going to play some poor sucker that's ranked somewhere in the #20s because they're not really that good but they play in the SEC and their record is somewhat OK because they haven't played Bama and lost by a million yet. Bama: A million -- Not Bama: 0.
Schweinfurth: I'm not going to break this down. Bama is sooooo much better than A&M. I'm with Hoying, Bama by a million. TAMU: 9--Bama: 70

Seeberg:  Not very often a team enters the rankings after losing a game, but the Aggies put up a solid effort, dropping a close one to Clemson.  That game was in College Station, however, where the 12th man seemed to have an impact.  Make no mistake, there is minimal talent disparity in this one...across most of the starters.  'Bama has 4 and 5 stars literally everywhere on the depth chart, however, and that depth will grind TAMU down in the second half.  Might be nice to actually see Saban have to coach for once though.  TAMU: 17-- Bama: 38

Tulane Golden Hurricane @ #4 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: What do we want from this game? The Bucks left Dallas with a huge win and a (bigger--no, but close) loss in Nick Bosa.  I expect he'll be back sometime this year but not before PSU.  Will we notice his absence Sat? No.  Cooper and Young will be just fine.  I'm hoping to see some strides from the run defense.  If Tulane is smart, they'll run the up tempo offense and try to get the ball out quick with a few trap runs up the middle.  The major difference is they don't have TCU's athletes.  As for the offensive side of the ball, I have no concerns.  This should be another stat-padding game for the Bucks O.  Look for Tate Martell to get plenty of reps.  Urban's return is successful.  Enjoy the giant red hoard as the TBDBITL Alumni march down the ramp "One more time." Tul: 10 -- OSU: 59
Hoying: Mmmm...sandwich game. Something about returning from a Texas-sized "neutral site" victory and gearing up to head to Happy Valley for the B1G East championship makes this matchup fizzle a bit. Don't expect the Bucks to fizzle on either side of the ball, though, Tulane is terrible and the boys aren't going to be falling asleep in the middle of Urban's homecoming. The Buckeyes will win by 50 or so and stay at #4 because Clemson doesn't Clemson anymore and Bama will win by a million. Tul: 6 -- OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This game is like the creamy filling in an Oreo, sandwiched between two HUGE games. To me this is a name your score game. There are a few things I want to see, mostly a full half of the young guys because the Bucks are up by a huge amount. Please don't get anyone hurt and get tuned up for next week. Tul: 10--OSU: 70
Seeberg:  Well Buckeye fans, our favorite rush man is out, likely for a month or so, making this tune up game all the more critical, allowing the less-heralded DEs to step up and see what it's like to get extra attention without Baby Bear blowing plays up regularly.  Through three games, Bosa has more tackles (14-13), tackles for loss (6-3) and sacks (4-3) than the next five DEs on the depth chart combined.  Good luck Chase Young and Co.  In any event, I expect to see a lot of Tate Martell in this one after Haskins gets his 275ish and 4ish touchdowns.  Would love to see some Weber and Dobbins in the backfield simultaneously to give Penn State's defensive coordinator nightmares as well.  Hope they both crack 100 this week.  Bring on the rest of the B1G.  Tul: 10 -- OSU: 63

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa over Wisconsin
Hoying: Purdue over Boston College
Schweinfurth: Wake Forest over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Indiana over Michigan State

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Grading the Bucks: Week 3 -- TCU

A big win and a (potential) big loss.  Honestly, Buckeye Nation should be incredibly pleased with the performance last Saturday in Jerry World.  It wasn't perfect, but the team fought through the first modicum of adversity they saw all year and triumphed.  It was by no means a perfect game, but you went into a powerful enemy's home (sort of) and took care of business.  The only reason to be mad at the final score is if you had the Bucks -13 (we should have covered).  Obviously, the negative was the uncertainty of Mr. Bosa's future for 2018.  We shall see.

Offense: B
MVP: Dwayne Haskins, QB
Pretty solid showing this week, but not as crisp as the last two weeks.  Obviously, the Horned Frog defense had much to do with that, but the execution took a slight step back.  Austin Mack had a day with the swing of emotions.  First, a huge diving catch to get it going in traffic, followed by a bevy of drops.  Buckeye faithful need to relax.  Mack has been much better this year and he will continue to grow, but Sat was a lower point.  He'll get it together.  The backfield tandem was solid (not explosive, but solid).  I'm continually amazed by the balance of the two backs (especially Dobbins).  The footwork and concentration is exceptional.  I also love that Haskins finally kept the ball on a read.  Yes, he's slower than the StayPuft Marshmallow Man, but we need to keep the threat of the keeper alive.  A perfect playcall near the goalline.  We do need to mention the points left on the board in the first possession when Haskins swing pass to Berry was batted down.  A literal lob is an easy 6 with no one within miles of the TE.  Oh yeah, no turnovers :).

Defense: B
MVP: Dremont Jones, DT
This unit is going to be bipolar week in and week out.  The line is simply fantastic.  They scored 2 TDs for heaven's sake! The back 7....eh.  Linebacker play actually improved as the game went on a bit, but there's a ways to go.  Arnette has his moments (on both sides) but the secondary is not the high quality we've had in the recent past.  Let me be clear: expecting the secondary to be seeded with multiple 1st round NFL draft picks every year may be asking a bit much.  The only concern the reared it's ugly head is the run defense once again.  The pass rush is just nasty with Bosa (please?), Young, Jones, and Cooper.  I feel bad for opposing QB's.  However, TCU had a fantastic gameplan to nullify the rush with quick tempo, short passes, and inside runs.  Look for many future opponents to try to replicate that.

Special Teams: C
They were the ones to kick a kick off out of bounds! Moving on up Bucks! However, a missed kick by Nuernburger is no bueno.  Another average kick/return showing.  Another downgrade is the kickoff trickeration that should have worked (had they not thrown it forward).  How did no one see that?

Coaching: B
So ends the (first?) tenure of Ryan Day as OSU head coach with an unblemished record.  The offensive gameplan was just fine, although I was surprised to see so much Dobbins early when Weber had been the recent hot hand.  I'm glad they kept going to the receivers even with the dropsies.  The reps help.  The defensive gameplan was a little more questionable.  I'm surprised the coaches allowed the lack of run stoppers be showcased in this game.  The edge rushers of OSU are fantastic and should be the focal point, but when it becomes clear that TCU is using that advantage against us, adjustments need to be made.  I think they tried, but the middle of the field defenders are not at the level of the ends and it shows.  Maybe some more help in the middle (4 linebackers? Maybe a safety cheating up to aid with the run) would be in order.  Also, seriously, how was there not a single coach in the box screaming to the sidelines that there was a TCU player laying on the RED A in the endzone. With all the eyeballs on the game in college football, everyone missing that is very odd.  Yes it didn't work, but it should have.

Overall: A-
Lots of nitpicking above (more than is deserved as reflected in my final grade).  The Bucks took care of business in a workmanlike fashion.  Yes, they got the advantage of defensive scores, but those were a product of the quality defensive play rather than an accident.  This game is a big springboard for the season, make no mistake.  The only concern still lingering is the abdomen of Nick Bosa.  Let's hope he gets right for the Penn State game.  He has a meeting (multiple meetings?) planned with Chase Young at Trace McSorley.